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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 13, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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guy, we've got some decent gains on the nasdaq today. at one point up barely 1.5% and the dow 128 in the s&p is 144, s&p or so. tomorrow is a very big day between retail sales, citi, we'll get taiwan semi there, as well so buckle up for the earnings season. let's get to the half. >> all right, carl thanks so much surging inflation. what all of that means to stocks and your money we'll debate that with the investment committee as a notable investor now says he is bullish. joining me for the hour today courtney gibb sop, rob sechin, and pete najarian co-founder of here in the east, the nasdaq is the big winner 1.5% and a nearly 200-point gain and there is the ten-year note yield and it's up
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which means yields are down 265 and pete, i'll tell you what, i mentioned this notable investor, maybe scott maynard has been listening to farmer jim lebenthal because i spoke to him on overtime last night and here's what he told me and we can react on the other side. >> it's not a time to get really negative there's a lot of interesting opportunities out there, both in the bond market and in the stock market, and you know, i'll tell you, scott, i don't know many people that are outright bullish here, and so even though we have a lot of economic uncertainty, history tells us that, you know, this is probably a good time to be buying. >> okay. pete, counterview for certain. farmer jim has been singing that tune is it time to get more bullish >> i think it's great to be cautiously optimistic and i think when i say that what i'm talking about, he mentioned the
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word opportunity and that's exactly what we talk about all of the time, right, scott? we talk about what stocks make sense at appropriate time. the other time i bought a stock, and i couldn't remember the last time i had actually bought a stock as opposed to just going into the options and trading throughout that world. i continue to be pretty much in that camp of trading the markets right now because of the fact that the uncertainty levels are high volatility is higher than it was. we got under 20 for a while and now we're pressing between 23 and 24 i think it's a great opportunity from a trading perspective, though, scott. when i look at it for trying to find the right stocks, it is really difficult you have to hammer through a lot of the different numbers and the different names and cagegories and decide which once are going to be impacted most. like my brother john talked about yesterday, we may have peaked in inflation and that doesn't mean necessarily we go right back again we could hold on to that for
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quite a while and if that's the case it will be a volatile and choppy market for a while. >> think you referenced goldman sachs that we talked about in overtime and pete doesn't do a lot of individual stock buying, as you know. it's mostly a derivative game options that he plays. farmer jim, i have to turn to you, right i thought the minerd comments were interesting because he still thinks we're going to have a recession, but he thinks it will be a couple of years away and there's a long enough runway before we start thinking about it because the economy is so strong now that it's bullish for stocks and not only does he think it's bullish for stocks, he's actually buying in his personal portfolio, he said which i thought was the most telling thing that he said he's putting his money where his mouth is in his own personal portfolio and he's buying growth and cyclical stocks and i think he's been listening to you >> well, look, i'm not going lie to you, scott.
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i took a great deal of comfort from listening to what mr. minerd had to say because i had been on an island and that givious a chance to be introspective and said hey, am i getting it wrong i certainly see the fed's change of stance, but what i also see and what mr. minerd is seeing in the type of stocks that you mentioned he's buying is that economic growth right now is pretty strong and we'll get into some earnings reports later. i don't want to telegraph that now, but with you think about consumer balance sheets and corporate balance sheets it's pretty strong and you're indicating that consumers and corporations are spending. yeah look, at some point we're going to get a recession, but boy, i just don't see it on the horizon and not with the economic statistics that i'm seeing and think about last week's jobless claims more with earnings that are just starting to come in this is day one, so i don't want to get too giddy about it and i want to see more positive signs than negatives and that's simply it i'm seeing more positive signs
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than negatives >> i hear you. >> this is a today versus tomorrow call. there's reason to be positive today. there's reason why you see so many more positives than negatives today. eventually the fed will do what it has to do and it will put us into recession and right now it doesn't really matter because you can have rates moving higher and you can have the fed being aggressive now and stocks can still go up and oh, by the way, courtney he said again, he reiterated what he said a month ago on cnbc, he likes paypal. he likes block, former square and he owns both of those personally and oh, by the way, you're adding to block, as well. >> again, good afternoon, scott. so good to see you as always it is a very interesting time and i oftentimes agree with my friend over there, mr. jimmy as well as pete and candidly, less
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than is good as tom lee likes to say. right now we're in an interesting time when we're seeing consumer balance sheets extremely strong which obviously is two-thirds of gdp we're seeing those simultaneously slowing in that real time line data, and it's kind of like, what do you do here i personally am adding to positions i've been strong in and been a holder of for a while. i did add to block and i do think it's undervalued from a sentiment perspective and we have to think about how that's occurring and same thing with pete, i own goldman sachs, but i am adding to quality names that will weather this sturm over the long term because the uncertainty is something that i don't have a crystal ball to predict. i find that you guys are making a lot of moves all of a sudden joe, for example, you bought
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chipotle back, right you used to own it you bought it back you trimmed abbvie to make that purchase talk me through the reasoning that chipotle stood out to youan first. >> first of all, i agree with scott's comments i don't think we are in the initial stages of the bear market so i'm looking for opportunities. i agree with what courtney is saying, opportunities where you find quality and i agree that the near-term is still very clouded. with that break below the 52-week average, in the near-term i don't know the market direction what happened this morning is abbvie is a stock that i have owned since november of last year i purchased it at 115. you know that i study momentum you've had three consecutive days where abbvie experienced what we call range expansion and
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on a daily basis and the range is much larger than what you witnessed over last two years and the stock went up 8% during that period, well, that was quickly negated and it was completely eliminated by three negative range expansion days. so i had to take that position off. i had funds and i studied my portfolio and i said where am i from a strategic perspective missing something and it's towards growth and i wanted growth at a reasonable value i looked at consumer disregzary. i listened a lot to brian nichols' comments over the last several months and chipotle citing what courtney said, chipotle is actually able to endure this inflationary environment, fast, casual seems to have some resiliency, there's some brand recognition and there's the efficiency of the way management is navigating this inflationary process. so i took the funds from abbvie,
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very happily put them into chipotle and it elevates my exposure to growth which is something that i was looking to do >> you were looking at palo alto which dan ives was jumping up and down and he's calling this a table pounder. why palo alto right now? >> first of all, i own fortinet, and i do have this theme of cybersecurity. dan ives, josh brown, jim cramer, they have all been talking about it and if i forget, i want to apologize, but cybersecurity is such a dominant theme in 2022. palo alto is a way to add to that cybersecurity exposure and listen, if you want faster revenue growth and higher beta exposure and if the market from here is going to appreciate significantly.
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crowdstrike is the better trade, and i kind of want it to trade down in the exposure i want to get growth at more of a reasonable price that's what palo alto will deliver for you. it's got to focus on the fire wall i'm very happy to own it here. i think it breaks out significantly beyond $700. >> rob sechan is making move, as well you bought blackstone and you bought more united health. minerd's talking about, you can buy stocks here that you have the runway to do so, and i feel like you guys are doing that including sech why these? >> yes i just want to comment on the environment first, too, scott, because it will tleed what we're doing. the positives are known and need to stay strong and the negatives are known and need not to get worse, and i think it there's a
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greater risk and the positives stay strong and it's clear at that time market is trying to make a bottom right now. we've rallied in the last few days and gave it up and we'll see what happens today this is a trader's market and we're trying to take advantage of the volatility and with blackstone, here's a stock where the share price is down 25% from last year's highs and it's been caught in the recent market turbulence it's the largest retail beneficiary of the uptick in their exposure to liquid private markets and they've created a lot of perpetual vehicles and while it trades at a slight premium to the group it's still a very strong blue chip company to initiate a new position in. unitedhealthcare, a little different. we own it. we like healthcare health care has historically been one of the top performing sectors following a yield curve inversion. i think people get a little defensive and in this case it's nice because health care is able
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to protect some of the margin that we always talked about and as we increase the quality of portfolios and unh is a great way to do that and it's dominant in the top three end markets in this country, commercial and medicare and medicaid. so it doesn't mean you sit on your hands when things are tough. >> you know, pete, it's not like you guys are all making moves and you don't expect this volatile the or turbulence to continue like jamie dimon was saying today on the j.p. morgan call, quote, no chance you won't have volatile markets, right? we're not suggesting more is scott minerd that the market's just all of a sudden going to go straight up because we can finally come to grips with the fact that the fed is raising rates in a very strong economy and you may, in fact, have that kind of runway that he's been talking about. i want you to listen -- by the way, because bullard today was
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out today to the ft saying it's fantasy to think that modest rate rises will tame inflation and he's as hawkish as everybody and whether he represents a broad view of the fed, who knows? we'll find out in may what the fed does and i thought what else minerd had to tell me yesterday and i want you to listen to it, too, pete. i want you to react to sort of this counter move to what most people are thinking. let's listen. >> every time i hear another fed member talking extremely hawkish about action and whether it's the balance sheet the more bullish i get and the reason for that is when you start to look at rates, and when the fed starts raising rates and the ten-year yield falls, if we have
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long rates fall that will make stocks look a lot more attractive right? how about that >> he, the last time he was on, suggested that the 10-year will fall to the range of maybe it will top at two or 2.25, obviously, it overshot that, but he thinks as others do, as well that maybe you've topped in the ten year, you know, at 277 or wherever the exact top and was now you're going to start sliding back within that range which he says makes a lot of stocks more attractive i see you buying apple calls and i see you buying chevron calls and i see you buying apache calls. >> yeah. i'm not very committed right now, scott i'm not buying in to what mr. minerd was talking about necessarily because of the fact that it's been playing out for a while now. we watched the ten-year as it was making this kind of a move and i would expecting to see it get up over the three level in the not too distant future because of that, i don't think
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it's a comfortable time necessarily to find too many stocks that are at the right level, and i think we'll see some beatings into the market still. it doesn't mean we'll have to test those 52-week lows and everyone wants to ask the question, will we test that? i don't think we necessarilyca do that and we had markets when all of a sudden things muched in the opposite direction that's why it is such a trading market and you know this, how long have i owned apple and i've only been trading and that's where it makes the most sense for me, unless you had ungodly timing, if you did that through stock you'd be -- with the opportunities and the signals we were seeing that helped us create something and by the way, when they were buying options
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they weren't buying facebook, microsoft or apple or some of the big tech names, they were all short term and they were expiring april 1st or april 8th. they were not extending out. we just did get a bare of apple once again, and huge buying again. 21,000, looking for more upside in apple, so yeah, i'll jump on those call, but i don't think you necessarily have to start positioning in otherwise you have to stop out every time you get the pullbacks, you will stop more often than you can imagine. >> court, what am i supposed to do even when people are trying to get bullish with j.p. morgan, for example. which again, starts off earnings season with a whimper. new 52-week low, lowest since january of '21 profits are down 42%, lower fees, new expenses and loans are up $120 million loss on nickel exposure what am i suppose to do now thinking i was hoping earnings
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would get off to a good start and now i have to worry about everybody now? >> scott, the answer is no you don't have to worry about everyone, and candidly, you shouldn't be worried about j.p. morgan because jamie dimon is incredible and there's a reason why he's at the helm of that bank farmer jim and i talked about this and jamie tends to be cautious which is what you want from the 11th largest bank in the world to be in a potential time of uncertainty. you do not want jamie risking the balance sheet on a whim. he's underpromising and overdelivering and read through from the bank, in my humble opinion, they will learn from what jamie said that has the markets nervous about the space right now and they're going to adjust those earnings call comments accordingly i do believe that there is an opportunity in the options sector overall i do also believe that there is
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safety in the numbers. so those bigger banks are going to do well those banks with a diversified business mix are going to do well because they can make money even though we're seeing some challenges in some areas of those banks. goldman sachs, again, we talked about it goldman sachs, i think they are going do well and even with the capital market coming in on the underwriting trading is a hugs are. they diversified into wealth management and they have's multitrillion manager on what that looks like. this morning "jim treader and look at those places where you can invest in high-quality management team and businesses that will have a diversified mix to weather these storms and exchanges and i'll touch on this one again, the financials. the movement of money and
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whether volatility goes up or down, people who make money that movement of money i believe will do well. pay attention going forward and listen to how they're guiding you in the quarters that we have ahead versus what's happened in the rear-view mirror >> we'll bounce for a couple of minute bmo's brian belski we'll find out how he's asitioning himself and whether hegrees with mr. minerd and a price target on the s&p. does it hold up? we'll talk to him next i invest , a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq mount everest, the tallest mountain on the face of the earth. keep dreaming. [music: “you can get it if you really want” by jimmy cliff]
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i mentioned the man with a big s&p target and he's our halftime headliner and brian belski is back with us it's good to see you welcome back i think about this minerd stuff and every time i hear a member talking, the more bullish i get. i close my eyes and i think of you. i can hear your voice in my ear suggesting the same exact thing which you better be doing because you have 5300 to remind people on the s&p 500. >> i am, ask the thank you for having us. i'm humbled to be in the same sentence as scott minerd and as you know, fixed income people are shorter than the equity people i like the old days of when the fed members just dissent i think they're using the bully pulpit now more than ever and the social network to talk about how they really feel and you could be seeing more dissension going forward, but bottom line the bond market is what you
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should be watching the bond market has done a wonderful job and i'm with mr. minerd there's a very good chance the ten-year has likely bottomed i'm sorry, topped, and you will see a pretty nice rally in prices here which would build confidence, i think, for the overall stock market >> so you think that the stock market -- how much do you think the stock market can really go up in the near-term, right you're not suggesting that it's just going to go unabated higher there are still legitimatee mara flash, if anything comes out of ukraine, russia, and who knows what hawkish comments and all of that will influence. >> i'll remind people when you published back in november 2021 and we said 2022 will be the year of the second derivative, there's a fancy way of saying less positive return, and more volatile returns and all of that
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has happened and we obviously didn't know about the war in ukraine. you and i have spoken several times before and we continue to believe that the market is being l laissez-faire, be that as it may. we have some sort of a positive resolve there anded markets will be up, number one. number two, and powell is very clear about this during his last press conference following the meeting that the fed's best case was that inflation will be peaking late in the first quarter. so we get a positive resolve to the war, we can move on. now i do think that -- with the first quarter earnings, the supply chain blame game. if you take a look at fourth quarter numbers they've improved four percentage points since beginning of the year and overall 2022 numbers are up 2% since the beginning of the year. so i think that numbers will be better in the second half of the yore than people think i think the market could be will
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have till as we try to find a range in bonds and this is all about stock picking and all about fundamentals and all about themes and longer term running those companies. all about stock picking. do i want to, if i believe you, that stocks can, in fact, go higher and i believe minerd when he says it's time to be bullish. do i want to play defense or offense to get to that point defense being do i want to stay with things like staples, utilities and the more defensive spaces or do i want to play offense like he suggested and go back to growth and back to cyclical stocks which everybody was worried about because of the trajectory of the economy? >> great question. staples and utilities are amongst the most expensive assets in the s&p 500. what's really funny is some of the staples that are traditionally defensive meaning the food and the like, they're expensive, but if you take a look at where the sectors
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composed, scott, i think costco is one of the top 25 company and i think utilities are expensive and they'll be with respect to the infrastructure going to are ward i don't think you sell them all, five of the left separate cycles and/or, the technology has outperformid and think we've forgotten about that lastly, if you're looking for stability, the most stable earner in the s&p 500 are the secular tech growers and they've caught a bid here as of late ask they should be a part of the longer term portfolio and we're overweight tech, and i'm neutral from now until the end of the year given the volatility in the overall tech sector. >> want to point out the overall market you've got an almost 200-point gain on the dow and an over
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200-point gain on the nasdaq and it's pretty strong there and the yields are down, as we said 267 is the yield now on the ten-year joe t., do you have a question for brian? >> yeah, i do. brian, take that one step further. a lot of people have commented that once the market is able to find its footing here and begins to significantly appreciate that investors should go right back to the hypergrowth whether it's teledoc, zoom, and the extreme valuation companies. is that going to be right strategy >> i don't think so. i think you want to own growth and value and more growth at a reasonable price and that doesn't mean not owning dividend growth growth i think the higher multiple names will have a hard time, joe. i believe that they'll do a job -- should you
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completely abandon them? >> no. i don't think the hatred is quite there yet because everyone is trying to bottom fish these fames and the more i hear about bottom fshg the more you will see increased volatility >> brian, i appreciate it. i have to bounce stay with us pete has unusual activity coming up we'll do it next ok, let's talk about those changes to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs)
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ow! i'm courtney reagan, here is our cnbc news at this hour the mask requirement for forms of transportation is being extended by 15 days and that's the call to let it expire scheduled on monday, next monday the cdc wants more time to see the current increase in cases from the ba.2 variant will result in more hospitalizations and deaths the presidents of lithuania, estonia, latvia and poland are in kyiv to meet with president zelenskyy and other government officials and they'll be talking about military and civilian assistance zelenskyy urged estonia to back harsher sanctions on russia. he urged estonia to support an oil import ban and a complete
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blockade of all russian banks. after hearing a whining sound from under the rubble in eastern ukraine, rescuers used their bare hands to pull out a pup they survived the attacks he thanks them for doing everything quickly and promptly you don't hear a lot of good news from that area of the world. >> that's courtney reagan. pete, tell us what you see, please i'm going to start off with merck and the reason i'm starting there, scott is i'm seeing a huge amount of option activity of late in the health care we've had cardinal health and this one started back in the end of march and we started seeing buying and the stock was at 78 and they were buying the 185 calls and they've had unusual option activity and today being one of those and about 14,000 of the may 87 1/2 calls and they're going out to mayand getting a little bit of time on this and that's going for 1.50.
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15,000 of those. ark innovation, we're seeing buying on here, scott. it was trading at 61 bucks and they bought 61 calls and they're buying right on top of it and there's a whole complicated spread that goes with that, but just to make it simpler. they're looking for something bullish to happen here and they're looking for a nice move to the upside and those option were going for $2.50 lastly, energy, energy, energy and it continues to hit. we've had hits today in marathon oil and we've had it in diamondback and devin and southwest energy is the most interesting one for me, though it's trading at $8 and they bought 20,000 of the may 7 calls. why would they do that they get more leverage and better than buying at the money or out of the money calls and as the stock moves to the upside if that's the case and i continue to be very, very, very overweight in the energy sector. >> good stuff, pete. thank you very much. >> shares of delta soaring after earnings courtney gibson owns it.
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i mentioned delta shares were surging after better than expected third quarter results there's the move better than 5%. i mentioned someone was buying it, it's farmer jim lebenthal. jim, you told our producer that you bought it in your personal account, now i come to find out you bought it for clients and now i'm confused and would you clarify who you bought it for, jim? >> i will clarify that detail, but i don't want it to miss the big picture. i have a fiduciary duty for clients to go first and they say, listen, they have new accounts that have capital still. they don't have enough alaska airlines and if you're bullish on delta add it as far as alaska airlines there here's the bigger picture. when you hear a ceo like ed bastion like he did this morning about depmand for his product yu have to pay attention. the man was positively giddy on how he was describing the last
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five weeks and highest sales and bookings and he sees that demand continuing on through the summer there are times when a ceo speaks and this is no new ceo who is about to learn the hard way, the value of tempering his words. he knows what he's doing and he is telling you things are extraordinarily good here. it extends to the rest of the airlines and that's why i'm perfectly happy with alaska airlines ask it extends to boeing, as well. things are very good in the airlines and by the way, that's a good tell of the strength of the consumer and that's why i'm starting a position in delta now. >> just to be clear. look, you have not owned another pure airline stock besides alaska, frankly, for as long as i can remember so it says something to me that you buy this one. >> that's absolutely true. >> yeah. you know, scott. thanks for asking me about that because if you've flown delta, you've noticed i can't speak for everyone there is a quality of customer
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service that is distinguishably higher, and alaska airlines has great customer service and delta is doing something different than rest of them. it makes me want to fly them and i prioritize them and alaska wherever i can >> we have a session high move there for dal. courtney, you own delta, as well >> i absolutely do, scott, and we talked about it for a while thou there are two things i'm like a broken record on, good management team and forward guidance and those two things are so important right now in the market that we are in, and both of those areas, delta is killing it on. they just told you they're going have double-digit profits going forward. think about what that means for the airlines and that giddiness that bastion and jim picked up on is really due to that look through. that giddiness from those bookings from last quarter are being driven by the consumer and the consumer has not come back yet and imagine what that looks
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like i think this is definitely a name that you want to hold for that very reason and not just as a trade, but as a long term holding for your portfolio as we look to expand upon what we're seeing in the travel space and the trend that is travel people are tired of sitting at home >> what jumps out to me, pete, about your commentary that you gave our team today, i feel that thestrong demand could be temporary. >> i mean, you have calls in southwest. you bought jetblue calls last week and you do have the jet's etf call, as well. >> right all of which are fairly short term, scott. not going out any further than may across the board for all of them you know what? i have noticed one thing and jim, you're right. the customer service is phenomenal i fly delta all of the time and i like the airline, and delta is number one right now the problem that i see potentially would be people were pent up, right people have kind of gotten that out of their system and they've had the greatest march on record
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and is this as good as it gets everyone was talking about the peak in inflation. peaked inflation, maybe we peaked a bit in the airline travel i'm not saying that we have, but i'm saying that is a possibility so i'm not quite as giddy as everybody else as a matter of fact, my last three flights on delta have been half full, just to give you an example and that was not the case in the previous three months where it was always absolutely sold out and packed and they wanted to buy my ticket so that's why i kind of scratched my head a little bit and said, you know what? maybe this is starting to slow down we'll know a lot more after we get through spring break and all of the different travel that we've had in march and it will be interesting to see as we get into the summer months. >> farmer jim, you're waving your hands like you need to say something. >> pete, listen, it's a great point. the answer to which is international travel is still 55% of what it was in 2019 if and when testing requirements are removed or lightened up
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there is a pretty good chance that international travel will shoot through the roof and that's what you should be looking for if domestic demand drops off. >> we'll take a break and semi stocks in the spotlight in today's call of the day and we'll give you those trades straight ahead cnbc celebrating financial literacy month and here's national urban league president mark muriel on why he prefers the term financial empowerment ♪ ♪ here at the national urban league we prefer the term financial empowerment to financial literacy because most americans they do understand and know about money and they do have a basic understanding of the financial system they're not empowered full toe confront the complexities. we like to talk about the goal and the goal is for people to be financially empowered.
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what do you want to leave behind? that's your why. it's your purpose, and we will work with you every step of the way to achieve it. okay nvidia, it's down nearly 40% from its 52-week high. the stock did get an upgrade to buy a new street price target 280 that implies a 25% upside from here rob sechan, you along with many others own nvidia which has been the subject of debate lately, remember a downgrade a day or two ago. >> we got into this name because we believed in their strategy
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growth and continued dominance in areas of the semiconductor business the company's on par with developing a competitive moat like the faang names and it's really nonhyperbole to say that it's one most important companies in the world very few companies are so advanced in artificial intelligence applications. autonomous driving, gaming, crypto mining in data centers. it is just the belle of the ball in this space. so we've owned it for a while and anticipate that we will continue to own it >> joe, you know, the downgrade the other day was on slowing demand deutsche bank is talking about macro uncertainties today as to why they have lowered price targets on applied materials and kla tencor and lam research and not by leaps and bound, but nonetheless, they're taking
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targets down, you own nvidia, push, pull on the stock down 40%. what am i supposed to do with the stock today? >> first of all, speaking about nvidia and adding to what rob said, a.i., automotive and march 22nd they had an investor day and wong laid out a tremendous long term growth strategy and guess what the market didn't care why? because the semis are used as taking the temperature of what the macro environment is and that's unfortunately the reality of where we are in the environment right now so what you are trying to do with that is you are trying to allocate a lot of the semi names that have the growth at a reasonable price. i own amd, i own nvidia and i allow for this process of time where we've got these macro headwinds that are going dominate the semi industry more than any other industry within the equity market, unfortunately. >> you know, i just want to
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touch on the overall market again. i'm just looking as we're having this conversation and the dow is up 245 points, there you go, 244 and change $34,465 and that's three-quarters of 1% and now they're up the same amount, 245. that's interesting and just shy of the 2% move for the nasdaq. so we've got a nice little move today. let's do this. let's take a break casino stocks are getting whacked litly. our contessa brewer is live in vegas. >> scott, you have record breaking profits on the strip. yep. you have leisure travel help set casinos, check conference business and international resuming, check, check. why this disconnect between how thsinos are doing and how eir shares doing you have questions and i have answer ahead on "the halftime report."
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the peak inflation story, in full effect. today for certain after that hot ppi read stocks are higher you have some people notable names over the last 24 to 48 hours suggesting that they think inflation peaked and the maybe the market is trying to buy that story. dow is up nearly 250 nasdaq up nearly 250 s&p a 1% gain. casino stocks rallying today contessa brewer is live in las
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vegas with the live look at the state of gaming. >> reporter: gaming stocks are having a good day today, but boy, have they been punished this year in spite of a first quarter that likely set records. nearly $9 billion in gaming. that's across all of the u.s las vegas has had particularly strong forward bookings. average daily rates are setting new records every month for the last year. but look at the biggest operators on the las vegas strip now. caesars down 26% year to date. mgm resorts off by nearly 10%. the las vegas convention center told me its booking a record number of shows for 2022 international travel is back on top of all of that, you have leisure travel that lifted las vegas to record setting profit margins last year. however, inflation is a real worry and not just for the investors but also for the
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gaming ceos who see it and rate hikes as the biggest challenge this year according to a survey released next year by the aga. the ceo of privately owned circa told me he's just starting to see the impact from high gas prices for the driving crowd to las vegas. really important from southern california his telltale metric is shrinking atm withdrawals. he says it's a leading indicator. gaming analysts write that historically there's not a lot of correlation between fuel costs and gaming revenue so they're going to be looking to see whether the bookings hold, whether people keep here and whether they spend as much when they come >> all right contessa, i appreciate it. that's contessa live in las vegas. jim, you own wynn. still not making any money right? it's still reporting a net loss. when does that turn around >> it's one -- well, it seems like it's one thing after another, whether it's concerns about mccaw or as pointed out,
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what's going on right now is concern about the future when we have all this talk about a recession, whether it's 2023 or later this year, the stocks that feel that, that are the canary in the coal mine are casino stocks. if you've listened to me, you know i'm bullish of course scott knows that you know that i think that inflation has peaked i look at whether it's goods in the supply chain, labor force parpg rate, i see that it's peaked maybe it's ready to fly around the cage and start chirping. >> here's what i need to reconcile, and maybe it's not just a wynn specific story but the casinos more broadly if the focal point of growth and certainly steady business operation is in mccau, and then you have the zero covid policy within china, which is a disaster, how does that make me feel comfortable about owning
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anything that has such a heavy reliance on that part of the world right now? >> especially when you talk about wynn and las vegas sands and you talk about the percentage of the revenue that you're getting from mccau. you're right i mean, i think that's been the issue all along. obviously we know -- i was out there at las vegas back in november of this past year it was great everything was phenomenal. it felt like it was fairly normal yes, people had masks on inside and everything else, but that obviously things changed and it's gotten more open. that's been great. that's why we're seeing great numbers there. but the problem is when you look at what the revenue by percentage is coming from mccaw, that's huge, scott i mean, that's massive and because of that, i think until that day happens, and until that -- we start to see something change over there in china, we are going to see these struggle, i think. that's why i've been hesitant to jump back in i was a guy who used to trade wynn and was owned the stock for a long time. las vegas sands, same thing. but i have not touched them
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since the pandemic began because i've just continued to look at this and see when are we going to see the reopenings that we need to see where the real revenue is made? >> yeah. i hear you and i remember that. you owned it for a while we'll take a break and do final trades next. massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like...
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- [man shouting] yeah! (upbeat music) - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit 4:00 eastern overtime. tom lee, josh brown, chris, liz young. we got a big show coming up. i hope you'll joinme a few hours from now
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let's do final trades. courtney, you're first >> look, i talked about goldman sacks. it's my final trade. it's trading 1.1 times book. goldman is not getting credit for their asset and wealth management businesses. we all know banking is going to deplete. the first quarter is going to look terrible for investment banking. the rest of the business is why you'd better get in here >> ahead of the earnings tomorrow morning, obviously. >> who has jpmorgan? whoever does, go >> rob i kplcompletely disagree about t was said earlier they saw net interest income and capital market revenues above expectations and buy the stock on the dip expenses were also in line to me it's crazy, that assessment >> okay. thank you. former jim >> union pacific if you believe my theory about economic activity picking up,
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goods need to be shipped and rail is the way to ship them >> joe t >> pent up travel demand you buy marriott >> a lot of call buying to the up side, vodafone. >> thanks, everybody i'll see you in "over time". "the exchange is now". >> welcome to "the exchange" here's what's ahead. more than half of americans now think we're heading into recession. and if history is any guide, they'll be proven right. but that history doesn't cover inflation spikes like the one we're living through now so we have stock picks for whatever kind of market you want to bet on. growth, value, and/or defensive. one area that's clearly facing challenges, of course, is the housing market we'll talk to the ceo of rocket about how his company can make money in this rising rate environment. plus our trader today is pretty worried


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