>> pete mentioned some shiny rocks, i don't have the bank account pete does so i got to go to the poor man's gold, silver both looked really nice today. traded well with oil good hedge in your portfolio. >> all right, thanks for watching "fast money", see you . "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field forall investors there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer which is it? are we headed for a frightening future or are things the best they've ever looked? right now it is not exaggeration
to say that we have a truly dekenz yan best of times worst of times scenario on our hands dow gaining 344 points, s&p jumping 1.12% and the nasdaq putting on a real show jumping more than 2% perhaps these interest rates went lower or perhaps because they were just getting a little oversold you got to understand, right now the american consumer is looking incredibly strong. we're spending at retail stores, we're using more credit, ask after being pent up indoors for ages because of covid, we're finally ready to travel. which is why when we the ceo of delta airlines, he could say some of the most bullish things i've ever heard about his airline, really about the industry in particular and about the consumer in general.
listen to this >> the demand is phenomenal. we've never seen in our company's history demand for our product and services at the level we are in the month of march, we had the highest sales in terms of bookings of any month in our history. >> holy cow. they've been around forever. yet at the same time if you listen to jamie dimon, the ceo of jpmorgan on his quarterly conference call today, he told a much more down beat story. frankly, i found it borderline frightening. in particular he had some very discouraging comments about the war in ukraine take a listen. >> i pointed out my -- usually words don't necessarily affect the global economy in the short run, but there are exceptions to that this may very well be one of them >> then jamie goes on. >> i hope things don't disappear and go away and the war is resolved i just wouldn't bet on all of that >> i just wouldn't bet on all
that not encouraging. now, both of these guys could be right. he's shocked to see how strong they are plus, he's noticing they have little to no resistance to higher prices, something he can't recall in the history. i think a lot of people, come on, they're desperate to travel now that it's safe you've also had a ton of delayed weddings that be held. now, when we had -- oh, man, when we had jpmorgan's matt boss, the best retail analyst on the show the other day, he said the consumer's quite strong, but jamie dimon on the other hand he runs a worldwide bank, and when he looks at his book of business, he sees problems a $500 million loss due to the war in ukraine, loan losses after years of them going down the possible intensification of an unpredictable war,s sticker shock from inflation, the resulting slowdowns, the fed
needs to raise rates to stamp out inflation. these are not bullish things in fact, if dimon talked like bastian, he'd sound like a lunatic. but that makes sense bastian deals with the consumer. dimon deals with the consumer but also the enterprise. consumers might be willing to spend like mad even in the face of a fed-mandated slowdown, just because they're so eager to get out again. so what happens? delta's stock, it finishes up $2.41 or 6.21% jpmorgan's it loses $4.24 or 3.22%. a 52-week low. all right, so now how do we make sense of this best of times worst of times first, let me tell you something i learned more than 40 years ago when i bought my first stock, american ago ri no, ma'amics
i heard about this company that it had amazing orange groeves in florida. i went to the mercantile library in new york city, read some reports about it everything checked out plus, maybe best of all, american agrinonics was only a $10 stock so how much could i possibly lose? well, let me tell you something. right after i bought it florida got hit with the worst frost in its whole history, and i lost almost my entire investment. in other words, luck luck plays a huge role in this business if putin blinks, then maybe the whole crisis, the whole crisis could come to an end wouldn't this be fabulous? you may think, wait a second, that's fanciful. but i'm old enough to remember the cuban missile crisis when john f. kennedy threatened nuclear war over soviet missiles that were in cuba and khrushchev, the head of the soviet union, he blinked and
khrushchev, i know putin's supposed to be tough khrushchev, he was one tough guy. he was a war hero at the battle of stalin grad he was one of the toughest soldiers putin doesn't have that kind of credibility, so maybe he'll blink too. if that happens, then we will look back and think jamie dimon's comments were too dire you can bet the other bank ceos heard him loud and clear they watched his stock plummet so they won't be making the sam. how about like bad weather maybe ed bastian and his team at delta will turn out to be too bullish. we don't know. more important, though, these two industries, the banks and travel are not for everyone. both the pangs and the airlines can be very sink or swim, so you might not want to extrapolate too hard to the rest of the economy. perhaps we should think about
something with a longer term perspective. did you know that today procter & gamble increased its dividend by 5%? the 66th year that the firm boosd s payout i know, only yields why because the stock has steadily rallied for ages well-managed, great products everyone used them in the slowdown as i said to the cnbc investing club today, shampoo, proctor here's another one, if you think bastian is right and the airlines are doing fabulously, then how about a destination we told investment club members in our morning meeting that if people were traveling, they'd head to the most coveted vacation spot on earth, they're going to disney world. right now -- whoa, a lot of negative mojo about disney as a matter of fact, i can't recall another time when this iconic company was more at odds with the price of its stock.
these situations usually resolve themselves positively for the stock. as disney makes changes to close the gap, and that's what's going to happen here, trust me or if you're interested in owning a bank but are turned off by jamie dimon's comments, so are the other big banks. banks make fortunes when the fed raises rates they can invest your deposits this treasuries get higher risk free returns while paying you next to nothing. and remember, if you want to find a bank that will benefit the most from higher rates, look no further than bank of america, which has a gigantic deposit base, much more of a domestic story than jpmorgan. and also, by the way, i bet you brian moynihan the ceo, i bet you he listened to jamie he's not going to echo that guy. if that doesn't work for you and you think jamie's right about how the war in ukraine could spiral out of control, then maybe it's time to own a defense contractor
best way to play, you believe the ukrainian government will be getting more hardware from the west i hope they do as always, hope's not part of the equation the bottom line, look, this is a hyper confusing moment, but i want you to search for stocks that can work long-term regardless of whether we're in the best of times, the worst of times, or both let's go to nicholas in maryland nicholas. >> booyah, jim, i was just wondering if you think i should hold on to chipotle, letter cmg? also, i was wondering if you could shoutout my business teacher mr. mercks it would mean the world. >> i would like to shout out i can whisper to mr. merch chipotle is breaking out here, and i think it's best of the best, and i think you should own it i've liked it since 300, i like it at 1,500. jeff in california, please, jeff >> cramer, i'm a founding member of the investing club, loving
the morning meetings just read your piece on net interest margins, could not have been more timely. >> thank you a lot >> caller: thank you so much i'm looking for banks that will profit as the fed raises rates i saw a bank stock mentioned in the news letter has a yield of 3.7, a p/e less than 8 and a recent double upgrade to buy what's your take on key corp.? >> i think key corp. -- excuse me -- i think key corp.'s terrific, and i think you should buy it i would buy it tomorrow. that's how good it is. it doesn't have the problems at all that jpmorgan has. it's the perfect antidote to jpmorgan all right. right now is it time to search for stocks that can work long-term regardless of whether the best of times or the worst of times or both on "mad" tonight our growth at a reasonable price series continues, and i'm dinging into the semiconductor stocks to see if any pose a good value
then could today's average be a sane of what's to come? i'm going off the charts to the nasdaq 100 to see if tech could be ready to rally. and with our response to the covid pandemic continuing to evolve, i'm learning more about what's working and what's not with dr. topol so stay with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money" follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an email to ma firstname.lastname@example.org. miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. hybrid work is here.
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the averages bouncing nicely, but the last few weeks, oh, boy, they've been absolutely brutal for the stock market, especially for tech rather than getting euphoric about this rebound or too beaten down about the long-term downturn, your goal should always be taking your emotions out of the equation. i say that all the time. the more intense the action gets, the more you need to take a deep breath and consider the quantitative side of the equ equation, and that's why tonight we're going off the charts a brilliant technician working on elliot wave trader.net. we last checked in with her a month ago. she told us the rebound could have short-term legs but eventually she predicted correctly, it would run out of steam. sure enough that's exactly what happened we had a couple of strong weeks followed by relentless churn lower. so how does she feel about the action now let's start by taking a look at the daily chart of the nasdaq
100. that's a tech heavy index made up of the 100 largest non-financial tech stocks, the nasdaq composite this one's important because it's been ground zero for the stock market's meltdown since november when the fed finally got aggressive about cracking down on inflation. the nasdaq 100 did bottom in mid-march, before rallying hard for the next couple of weeks it seemed to peak again at the end of march and now spent the last two weeks rolling over. if you remember, she likes to measure past swings in a given security, and then rub them through the prism of ratios. that's this bizarre weird series of numbers that repeat over and over again in nature snail shells, flowers, pine cones. it's all fib na chi. and you find these ratios showing up really incredibly in the stock market true. for some bizarre reason we'll probably never be able to
explain. what matters, though, is it works. when she applies these ratios to a stock's past wings, she can identify potentially important levels that stock or the market is likely to change its trajectory the key here is that you can use this analysis of both the y axis on the chart, which is price, and the x axis, which is time. whenever boroden sees a cluster due around the same moment, it tells us the stock could be poised to reverse its recent direction, and that's a big part of the reason she knew we were ready to bottom in mid-march, at least in the near-term what a great call. and looking at the nasdaq 100, boroden pointed out that had a cluster of five fib na chi timing cycles that came through march 28th to march 31st the index was rallying in that window and a lot of people got very excited, and then it
peaked the nasdaq peaked on march 29 and since then it's down more than a thousand points let's zoom in, with this next chart on the nasdaq 100. at least until today, this index has really been struggling it's been almost great down since that cluster fibanacci timing cycle she mentioned in march. this has been a very brutal period after this kind of action, boroden wants to watch time and price parameters didn't just pick the next tradeable low. on the timing front she says she has two periods where the nasdaq 100 is likely to make an important low. the first period is yesterday and today. in other words, today's rebound might have more staying power than you'd expect. then she also sees a few other ta timing cycles between friday and next atttuesday. while these timing cycles are certainly helpful, you can see this one and then this one,
4/15, 4/19, we only get an actual reversal of the trend about 60% of the times when we see these reversal signals better than a coin toss but far from anything we want to make a real bet on. in other words her methodology gives us dates where the odds of reversal are a lot higher even if they're a long way from being 100% next, how about price. let's zoom in. this is really important because this is a bad chart. let's view on the nasdaq 100 as far as pricing goes, boroden says -- the possibility of lows from march 14, which we know would be pretty bad. right now she's watching the 13,878 level, down more than 300 point where we are now after today's big rally. that's a ton of -- really a ton
of support okay however, boroden sees a big problem with this chart, which is that the nasdaq 100 is in pretty bad shape from a tech technical perspective. its price remains below the 200 day moving average, and look at that, i mean, well below, okay well, well below as well as the short-term, 50-day moving average, which is another one that's still very important. it's still not able to hold that what do we say about this? boroden has an important buy or sell trigger she likes to watch. when the five-day goes above the 13-day, five days blue when it goes above, that's her favorite buy trigger oh, but when the five-day goes below the 13-day, right now
boroden says we're in sell territory, not in buy territory. in short, even if the timing cycle -- create a meaningful low, boroden thinks we still need to be prepared for the nasdaq 100 to have another downside failure because the technicals are so poor we've seen this before you've got to be -- it's got to be way up there. it's not now, we do get a name for reversal, if today's rebound can continue, she says her first target for the nasdaq 100 is 1430 and then 14770 but as she sees it, we're definitely not out of the woods yet and she's certainly not making an all clear call even as we leave here tonight you feel like, wow, it's great here's the bottom line, the chart suggests the nasdaq 100 could make an important low sometime this week, and maybe it's already happened. if that's the case, then the recent blood bath might be over for the moment however, you might notmen want o get too attached to this move.
boroden says the underlying technical picture, that's just a real technical picture remains ugly you could get a good chance to unload some tech here in order to raise money to buy other things that might have an easier time in themarket going forward. i hate this. stick with cramer. coming up on the hunt for growth, what chip stocks might home gamers consider cramer tackles the most controversial semis next
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travel and restaurant, and boy did they work today because, of course -- then last night we highlighted the under appreciated financials get to work. tonight we're looking for garp in a more beaten down industry, the semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment space. unlike travel which is obviously benefits from the great reopening or the financials which wall street tends to love whenever the fed is tightening, the semis are controversial right now. we know this industry has been doing very well thanks to the widespread chip shortages but in recent months investors have given up on this entire group. the philadelphia semiconductor index peaked on january 4th, and since then has pulled back more than 23% from its highs. that is a monster decline. i think there's a sense that the chip makers will get hurt as we head into the fed mandated recession, or maybe they'll
abort after what we saw today. plus, all things tech have been crushed lately, so to some extent these hardware plays are simply collateral damage at these levels, i think a bunch of them have started to look pretty enticing. obviously others did too or the group couldn't have been so darn strong today, especially because it got hit with some very real negative price target cuts when we ran our growth and valuations in the semiconductor cohort, we came up with seven names that passed the growth at a reasonable priced or gorp test we've got two commodity chip makers, micron, the commodity label seems like misnomer at this point amd and sky works. then we've got three amazing semiconductor capital equipment makers, lam research and applied materials, they're the jewels of the american semiconductor and manufacturing business so let's take them down.
starting with the two so-called commodity plays, micron and western digital. we know western digital as the maker of flash memory and hard drives with a stock that's been hammered for good reason when western digital reported late january the headline numbers were good, but their guidance fell well short of expectations then a week later, they had a contamination issue at one of their plants in japan. that problem has now been solved because of it, western digital had to cut its forecast for the first quarter, which was already disappointing when it was issued now, these guys also have a ton of exposure to the personal computer market, which was down 10% in the first quarter and is now scaring everyone so there are good reasons to feel bearish about western digital. the thing is the stock's come down nearly 40% from its highs last summer. even with all these problems, the company's still on track to rack up 76% earnings growth this year and more than 20% earnings growth next year still good wall street clearly thinks these
estimates won't be made. they think there will be some big cuts and that's why western digital only trades at a paltry five times next year's earnings how about micron long one of my favorites since we changed the management. new management has done a great job. this one has similarities to western digital but it's a much better run and has a stronger mix of businesses. micron makes memory and storage chips, flash and drams to be specific most recent quarter march 29, the headline numbers were truly spect spectacular. i talked to them on "squawk on the street." they had some good things to say. management's guidance for the current quarter was even better. company projecting sequential gross margin increases for its d-ram and flash businesses the supply of these chips remains tight and prices holding up but micron's stock ended up selling off on the news because wall street chose to focus on just teeny, tiny negative
comment thes about management supply chain disruptions related to the russian invasion of ukraine. they talked about the softening demand in the consumer pc market, which scared people away even as it didn't stop micron from giving an incredibly bullish forecast now throw in newfound worries about the chinese lockdown hitting the whole manufacturing industry and you can see why micron's stock is down 12% since reporting. that is a severe overreaction, but i too was gripped about the stock going down i say the worry warts are focused on the wrong things. we know the enterprise pc business is doing just fine. we know micron's got a ton of content in cars. we know their data center business is on fire. what matters to me is micron's earnings are growing like a weed the stock's trading again 7.5 times earnings it's a steal down here
next let's talk about the more proprietary chip make ergs that's amd and sky works these are both long-term cramer faves. under the leadership of lisa su, amd has become a cpu and graphics processor power house with huge exposure to gaming and the data center. however, the stock's been hit hard in recent months and don't i know it, plunging more than 40% from its peak in late november that's extraordinary we own amd for the travel trust and it has been a very rough ride, and believe me when i say rough ride, if you read our bul bulletins you cannot believe how bereft i am and upset. oh, well. did amd do anything wrong? did amd do anything wrong other than some exposure to the softening pc market, everything's going really well here the problem with amd is it used to be a fairly expensive stock trading at 60 times earnings late last year, and then the market suddenly turned against
high flying growth names we sold some amd for the travel trust this week. probably won't be a good sell, but that was more about right sizing the position and pivoting away from tech, which i told you we have all too much exposure to however, now that the stock's been obliterated it sells for 24 times earnings, the cheapest it's been since 2015 when it wasn't a well-run company. if you don't already own amd i think on weakness you buy it what about sky works these guys make all sorts of chips for connectivity getting two-thirds of their sales from the mobile business. that's why the stock is treated as a proxy for the smartphone industry and right now wall street is not feeling too good about smart phones frankly, i am sick and tired of having to defend sky works it's a very well-run company with an incredible track report that should benefit enormously from the rise of 5g because 5g phones need more of their chip content. sky works has been hit because investors are worried about short-term chinese supply
disruptions, but long-term this is a terrific company with a stock that trades just over ten times earnings may 2019, and march 2020 were fantastic times to buy it, even as it caught some real negative earnings finally, let's talk about one of my favorites the semiconductor capital equipment plays, kla, lam research, and applied materials. they all pass the garb test because they have price to reach multiples despite being on track to generate earnings growth in the high teens to high 20s the overall thesis for kla and applied materials is the same. we've got a worldwide semiconductor shortage that's lasted for 15 months so we desperately need newfound ris. who do you think makes the kwi for these foundries? these guys their orders are all spectacular. all anyone is doing is projecting, which is a lot better than i can do tonight
that's why kla, lam, and applied were trading at all time highs in january however, down anywhere from 26 to 35% for their peaks, as part of the broader selloff in all things semi-related. some powerful analysts have been cutting into price targets arguing that wall street will pay less for the earnings now that we're headed for a fed-mandated recession, if indeed we are. okay, i get it however, yi don't see the semiconductor capital equipment plays taking much more of a hit from the slowing economy because the chip shortage in this country and the world is just too severe the bottom line, growth at a reasonable price abounds in this beaten down market, and that includes the more controversial semiconductor space, just be ware that these chip stocks might remain at a reasonable price for the foreseeable future because wall street has just got no love until today for this entire darn group. let's go to jim in florida, jim.
>> caller: hey, jim cramer, jim clark here in tampa, florida, how are you doing? >> i love tampa, love it >> caller: beautiful listen, should i buy, sell or hold marvel technologies mrvl >> marvel happens to be my favorite semiconductor company why? they're in high growth, performance computing meaning the data center, and they're in 5g they're in the two strongest markets, mrvl should be bought right here all right. growth at a reasonable price which is garp. and a group that's been beaten down, which are the semis. much more "mad money," cramer exclusive with dr. erin topol with covid-19 cases rising in certain parts of the country, i'm learning about keeping the virus contained. and recently we've been hearing negative analysts about the prospects for the markets. rapid fire and tonight's edition
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♪ booyah as much as we all wanted to turn the page on this horrible pandemic era, the truth is we haven't been able to fully overcome covid yet there's a horrific outbreak in china right now that's putting even more pressure on the global supply chain, and here in the u.s. the latest omicron sub variant has also exploded in certain parts of the northeast so even though those of us who have been fully vaccinated will probably be fine, the pandemic's still weighing on the stock market that's why we thought tonight we got to check in with the expert. we got to go back to dr. eric
topol, the world renowned cardiologist turned founder and director of the scripps research institute who became our most trusted source on covid. you can see him on twitter, he's fantastic. welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks, jim, great to be with you again. >> all right, first question, are we out of the crisis in the united states? >> well, as you mentioned, we have this ba.2 variant wave we're seeing in the northeast, but i have to say, jim, it's not going to be anything like what we've been through the rate of the rise of cases is much different, much less, very little increase in hospitalizations, and so with the northeast being the first part of this ba.2 wave, it looks like it's going to be much reduced from what we went through in december, january, february but we are going to see a lot of cases, you know, an increase that's going to be felt for the next few weeks, so we got to keep our guard up. >> you did -- excuse me, you
tweeted today an amazing chart that was so positive and it made me very excited to think that maybe we're in the epidemic phase. >> yeah, the reason for that is as you're getting to, about half of american had omicron ba 1, and not only that, but the infection induced immunity on top of the vaccinations puts us in good stead. that is, you know, we suffered so much in those first few months of this omicron wave. that's why at least this part won't be as bad. so you know, the good part is we've seen new studies, one of which was today as we're mentioning that gives us some confidence about the immunity that was generated from all these omicron infections and booster shots, and we have new data today from booster shots from people over 60, a second booster that is a fourth shot shows protection enhanced for death against death, omicron hospitalizations, severe illness, so we have the tools to
help keep us out of trouble. >> and that's why i'm getting the fourth booster tomorrow when i saw that now, let's switch entirely let's switch to china. dr. topol, what the heck is happening in china >> yeah, it's really surprising because they have the ability to get vaccines in everyone, but they've left the people -- elderly unprotected in a significant way, and as you know, there's already no infection acquired or natural immunity there, so they have a vicious outbreak we only have ability to get a limited handle on what's going on in shanghai, but what is likely to happen in china is a very significant crisis because they have -- the vaccines don't work that well against omicron it requires a third shot the third shots haven't been --
a portion of people that should be, especially in people of advanced age so china has some trouble unfortunately right now. hopefully their efforts, lockdowns aren't going to do it, so it's going to have to be those third shots that gets the protection against omicron without any infection immunity to speak of. >> well, why don't they reach out to us? we've got mrna they don't have mrna we can help them >> you know, that would be great. it would be nice to have real collaboration. that's one good thing about our vaccines they held up really well and, you know, we didn't get as many booster shots in americans as we have needed to, especially in people of advanced age but you're right, that's one of the liabilities that china had, and even hong kong which had the worst omicron wave in the world. they had more mrna than china which in mainland there's no mrna. >> amazing
now, i flew this weekend, we put our masks on you know, we're all keendind ofe to it and we hate it we're trying to figure out why the heck we're still doing it. time to get rid of them? >> well, if you're using cloth masks, they don't do much against omicron, a little bit, but not much that's why it makes it even tougher. if you've got to wear an n95 mask or condkn 94, they're not comfortable, but those are the kind of masks that are needed indoor settings, especially against this hyper contagious family of omicron variant. >> so you think we should keep them on? >> well, you know, on a plane you don't know who's on that plane with you >> right, right. >> there's no vaccination requirements and if you're traveling in places that are having a high circulating virus,
people coming from those places, you don't know the air you're breathing on that plane. >> good point. >> it's helpful for a few weeks. eventually we're going to get into a quiet phase, hopefully by the end of may things are going to be looking really good. we're at the lowest level of covid hospitalizations through the whole pandemic right now there are encouraging signs, but we have to be patient. we can't be at all complcomplac >> well, one last question, my hometown is philadelphia, and the masks are back on inside doesn't that seem like it's a little counterintuitive? >> yeah, i mean, you know, to have the masks that are not, you know, the high quality medical grade, to make those a mandate when we know they don't have enough of an effect, that doesn't seem reasonable. so it is a lot up to the individual to be cognizant of what really helps, but hopefully we can get over this mandate thing. i do think when you're stuck on
a long flies on a plane, that's where you probably want to use everything you've got, at least for the time being we've just got a few more weeks to go, as long as we don't get another bad greek letter variant, we're in pretty good shape for the time being >> as always, doctor, thank you so much for coming on "mad money. just great to hear from you. >> thank you, jim. >> that's dr. eric topol, scripps translational science institute founder and director, a bit of a mouthful for me tonight. follow him on twitter, read his books. he's really extraordinary. "mad money" is back after the break. coming up, a storm is coming, so give us a call. cramer's got the answers to all your burning questions the lightning round is next.
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lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade ♪ it is time -- it is time for the lightning round, cramer's "mad "mad money." and then the lightning round is over, are you ready? time for the lightning round, jerry in florida, jerry. >> caller: hi, jim cramer, jerry karins in florida, by way of detroit, michigan. >> excellent. >> caller: first of all, thanks for all the words you share with your faithful followers. it means a great deal to them. >> i will do anything as this show attests to come out here. >> caller: i've been a 20-year listener and watcher
this is the first time getting through. but i'm calling about -- i'm calling about rocket companies based out of detroit, michigan >> oh, my. you know, it's such a good company but when rates go up, it does poorly, and the fed wants housing to slow, so therefore their business is going to slow too. too soon to buy. let's go to brad in new york, brad >> caller: booyah, cramer. >> booyah. >> caller: i'm calling about a stock that i don't ever hear anyone talk about, increased revenue year after year, and i understand that they're known for their -- being a fisherman, i see how their live technology sonar has swept the fishing industry what are your thoughts on garmin ticker grma? >> i fish, i agree it's fabulous. i think all their stuff is fabulous, and i think their stock is great, and i agree with you. let's go to chris in florida, chris. >> caller: baa baa baa baa
booyah, love your show, jim, i've been a long time listener, a fan of yours and my question is where do you see mosaic six months to a year or now and agriculture stocks, when will -- >> let me pause, i think ad co is cheaper and i think dooer deere is better and i want you in one of those two. i'm going to tom in california >> caller: i'm calling about jack in the box. >> very tough. i say let's go for the best on the lower end, mcdonald's and on the higher end we're going to go for chipotle and that's the way it is let's go to mark in wisconsin. mark. >> dr. cramer, thank you for taking my call i've got a question for you about a reit in the medical sector ticker is doc, name of the company is physicians realty
trust. >> i think it's okay you know, frankly, i know venn tsa h venntas has gone up lately, i think it's better even at this level. and that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade coming up, jay powell's doing everything he can to set a course or a soft landing, but is it worth to fret over the yield curve? cramer explores next
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a lot of management distraction or board distraction with or without elon this is supposed to be a live by the sword, die by the sword business that's how i feel about some of the most negative calls we hear constantly these days. in the last few weeks, we've heard endlessly and i mean endlessly, about how the inverted yield curve is a sure sign that we're headed for a recession. when two-year treasuries start yielding more than ten-year treasuries we're told it means the economy's about to hit a wall. i'm dubious because the economy's been insanely strong even with a fed-mandated
slowdown, we might not reach recession. as i see it, the inverted yield curve has called 12 of the last six recessions now sure, you could argue the fed's now willing to destroy the economy in order to save it fl inflation. by the way, some of these fed officials they clearly think we need an actual recession to cool things down. i disagree i think jay powell would prefer to engineer a soft landing, but i bring this up because these same savants who scream about the inverted yield curve are now nowhere to be found now that we've had two straight days with red hot inflation data where the yield curve has uninverted the short rates are now well below where they were, and the long rates are much higher, which is actually how it's supposed to be perhaps it's a peak in inflation rather than a terrifying yield curve. we've got a typical yield curve with a soft landing. now, i don't want to get too in the weeds here, but i consider
it part of my job to down plays these overhyped share tactics. it's not a reliable indicator, but will any of the commentators who push the recession story come on air and admit that they jumped the gun now that the yield curve has uninverted, will they apologize perhaps for frightening you out of the stock market? whenever i screw up, i own it. you know what? that's good. it's the way things are supposed to work. you live by the sword, you die by the sword yet none of these over eager bears ever seem to fall on their own swords when they get it wrong. i'm not predicting, i'm not making any predictions about the yield curve because that's only in the hands of the fed and the chief jay powell, and jay plays it real close to the vest. if rising mortgage rates which are priced off of longer term
treasury bonds cause a slowdown in home buying, and it sure looks like that's happening now, then maybe the jeremiahs of powell's fellow fed heads, housing's only 10% of the economy, we always talk about how it punches well above its weight it's connected to everything from lumber, copper, plastic, retail sales, all of which have demonstrated severe overheating. if they were to start really bailing out on their $9 trillion hoard of treasury and mortgage bonds, then it could take that part of the yield curve. i'm not doing this to scold anyone or because i'm irritated that these bears get to be insanely negative with total impunity, although i am. i'm doing this because i want you to own shares of companies that are solid and they're well-rounded rather than being hostage to any particular part of the yield
curve. you see, when you own good stocks, not rent them, you won't be scared out of your positions. next time these scare mongars start ranting. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i'm trying to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer see "mad money." i'm jim cramer i'll see you tomorrow. "the news with shepard smith" starts now. arrested the suspected subway shooter gave up. i'm shepard smith. this is "the news" on cnbc >> my fellow new yorkers, we got him. >> the federal charge, attacking passengers on mass transit the phone call that led to frank james' arrest. his disturbing videos and the new details of the investigation. 15 more days the cdc extends the mask rule on planes >> candidly, it's time to let the masks go. >> the backlash, plus dr. gottleib w