tv Squawk on the Street CNBC May 3, 2022 9:00am-11:00am EDT
now. dow opens 65 points higher if we open up now. still a half-hour to go. ten points on the s&p. 39 points on the nasdaq. and we got the ten-year note flip the board around real quick. i don't know if we're going to have time to do that we're either out of the pool or in the pool. >> positive. >> i didn't go -- >> i don't know -- >> make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber is in l.a. bulls are trying to extend yesterday's big upside reversal and corporate earnings include disappointing guidance from estee lauder, clorox and others. our road map begins with advice
for fed chair powell, look for another job. we'll tell you who said that elon musk continues to look for helping in paying for twitter, and shares of el falling we're going to start with the markets on day one of this two-day policy meeting this is what paul tudor jones said about chair powell on squawk about an hour ago. >> what would you be telling jay powell right now >> i would be saying look for another job. i think this is one of the most challenging periods ahead for the federal reserve board in its history. >> went on to say, jim, can't think of a tougher macro environment for stocks and bonds and that inflation is going to be harder to handle down the road. >> look, i think that the idea of looking at the s&p and deciding that maybe it doesn't work is great if you're a
billionaire. i'm on cotara, i'm on devon, diamondback, great hejs, oil companies, all very well run, all give me between 7 and 9% yield. if inflation ranges, you'll get more better crash i'm onthose calls. cotara that is -- friends with -- this is not what they do, okay they do not look -- the billionaires do not look at stocks because stocks are too small for billionaires it's too small honeywell, too small it's not too small for people who watch us for people who want to make a little money, it's not too small. you can buy certain stocks in in environment. if you're s&p, yeah, he's right. i'm stuck with the 500 last night -- after meeting with
five chemical analysts, i'm not bragging, i'm saying how lousy my life is i take on four conference calls, i look at them some ceos are doing better than others elliot is trying to rattle western -- which makes a lot of sense. western digital is worth more than breaking up i have to do the homework because i work for cnbc. that's my job. i don't work for myself. i work for -- it would be easy for me to say, i got a lot of money. i got vineyard, doing well i don't want to lose any cash. i'm sick of it i'm sick of it i'm sick and i love -- i've done a lot of work. but i think to come on and say, jay, look for a new job. this darn guy is doing his darn
best he inherited a disease that has killed a million people, that has shut down china, he's inherited a war that we're doing nothing other than giving them a couple of javelin missiles and that's jay jay should go home, have fun no jay is doing his darn best and the idea of just coming on and saying -- it's funny it's hysterically funny. >> sure. he's got a hard needle to thread >> he's doing his best and raising rates. the economy is slowing on its own. the housing stocks sell four times earnings, we're seeing the oils do well because of russia he may figure this out but to write him off before he started, when he felt that omicron correctly might shut down our country, the chinese, they shut down their country, i'm just saying, it's not funny.
and i love -- it's not funny. >> and there are things, david, obviously, out of his control. we keep going back to the binary potential outcomes in shanghai and china regarding the lockdown obviously the war and putin's path but we'll see. i mean, one of his points as we said is that the labor supply issues and the product supply issues that we were just getting used to late last year are just now coming to bear full-bore on the economy. >> all true. and so much outside his control as you point out, carl you know, jim is already throwing stuff he looks like he ate a bad oyster or something. i'll be back tomorrow. i'll be back tomorrow, jim, next to you, just so you know -- >> david, i just think it's glib i used to do that stuff. you know that? >> it is and it isn't. listen, i always want to listen to what paul tudor jones has
he's had a great career and i want to listen to him. and oftentimes he's had the benefit of having been right so, you know -- >> oftentimes be right. >> yeah. there's a lot of concern about what -- you'll hear people debate, well, how many years has it been since rates have moved up, this 30-year bull run of bonds or go back -- i don't know how long but people are talking about this as a seminole moment, jim, because it's not something we have dealt with in such a long period of time and the market is still digesting what it really means to have, you know, rates moving up from even here now, we could argue that that almost 3% yield on the ten year is accounted for a good amount of what jay powell has in store for the markets. we've seen what it's meant to
multiples and growth stocks and then there are all those cross currents that carl mentioned which are hard to quantify in terms of the long-term impact. >> david, i accept that. i think we're going through the process of re-evaluation i did a piece last night about the collapse of multiples. that's anticipating the collapse of earnings. i think the consumer is much stronger than any of those other times. i mean the balance sheets are much better. i guess here's what i'm really saying turn us off if you believe them. just shut us off no need to watch only master works held their value. >> master works, we're talking about works of art >> yes
during hyperinflation. carl, i like -- i saw a place in palm beach, it was really good there are many pockets that work, david. let's say they're pockets. so let's find the bull market somewhere. let's work harder. >> okay. >> it's okay. >> all right >> we just work harder. >> but a lot of people do own the broader market they have done so and, by the way, it's been a smart thing to do as we know, active managers have underperformed again and again and again, over and over, every year it's not an easy thing to do but i get it there are always pockets of strength that one should fine and you've been talking about a number of those names. when it comes to the broader market and the economy right now -- yeah, and the longer term, listen, there's a lot of uncertainty. there always is. i will say to your point yesterday talking to mark rowen or talking to lee from carlisle, the underlying companies, they have some good insight given the
broad array of private companies that they own, demand remains strong we'll talk to mike from aries as well it's an important point. >> why would -- carvana 10%. you and i could call it something -- 10% -- he says he likes it if you think that paul tudor jones is right, carvana stock went from 80 to 60 or does it go to 20? why not short carvana. if you're going to be this negative, why not short? just short i don't know i'm saying that it's case by case and if i look at -- let's say i look at a travel company, okay carl, we had a travel company report last night and i look at american express and i listen to steve who i think is a good manager. i don't know, carl, expedia, american express, the airlines, is that the sign that the world is ending? you could say, wait a second, with inflation now, it cost
$5,000 to fly to italy it used to cost 2,000. i say in another six months it will cost $2,000 again >> you mentioned at the top, diamondback and devon, and their commitment to capital discipline, jim, they're not interested in throwing good money at what they think maybe later a bad environment. >> i begged rick in my travel trust conference call that i did, i begged him to turn on the jets this is devon. because oil is at 100. he said, okay, let's say i turn the jets it will be one year for now. do you think ukraine will still be on. instead, i will return the capital to the shareholders. that's a half -- again, these are too small for billionaires
am i denigrating -- i'm not -- by the way, it was remferenced b musk yesterday i'm not lennon, david. i'm just looking for situations where you can make money and, david, these are not needles and haystacks. these are the largest domestic companies in oil >> right >> you're warren buffett. >> huh >> he's big in chevron, big in occidental. >> well, thank you >> you're welcome. you're welcome listen, jim, the debate rages here as well you know, cathie wood who we talked about a lot has been in attendance, continues as you might expect to talk very positively about many of the names in her portfolio you got ken griffin on the other side and this debate continues to play out take a listen. >> these are very trying times
because the pie is getting smaller. really difficult to maintain your purchasing power, your nominal equity we've had difficult days over the course of the last four months has that pie has gotten smaller. so i would say that for the -- for all investors, these are really trying times. >> and then there's cathie wood responding by the way, this was not a debate we're just pointing to two separate sort of schools of thought here we've obviously talked a lot about the ark funds and their performance, especially from the top, you can see what it's been year to date that looks a lot like tiger global, by the way, numbers of which have just been reported by bloomberg. down as much as 44% this year. here's what cathie wood said she's still a firm believer. >> this period is the most
innovative period in the history -- in history. five platforms at the same time. many people thought -- think this is a replay of the internet you can see how that was a big false start back there this is the real deal. these technologies are ready for prime time, the technologies themselves, the costs are falling dramatically, if anything, i think the risk to the economy during the next two to three years is deflation. even in the next year we wouldn't be surprised to see it. >> i would say app different view, jim, don't you think >> i think that view is lacking rigor. think about what you said about telehealth you have teledoc in there, doctor on demand, good rx. her picks to be able to play the disruptive technologies are wrong. her methods seem to be tired
her ability to come up with a new idea every single day is trying and i look at the trends and i say, if you did more homework, you would certainly get better ones that is -- is that a charge of negligence no it just means maybe less marketing, more homework i don't know, carl when you pick all these trends and they're good and the horses that you're playing in the trends are finishing 18 -- they're finishing dead last, i question the rigor >> but you are a fan of other long-term secular growth stories in the cloud. >> absolutely. >> you're bullish on metaverse. >> yes. >> you think some of her stay at home covid plays were temporary wins. >> it ended. the companies are telling me, jim, we don't have that kind of growth anymore well, i want to say to them, have you done your homework? no they've done their homework. they don't have that kind of
growth so we can ignore them. but we do so on our own. >> i like the fire today, by the way. >> i'm just -- if i were a billionaire, here's what i would do i would say you only need to get rich once, talk to me later. also, good luck. speaking of billionaires, elon musk said to be seeking a rework of the twitter financing package. take a look at the premarket here the vix is elevated but below 32 we'll talk about the fed and, of course, the 54 s&p companies that are reporting today in a minute
got new developments regarding twitter. elon musk is looking to take on more financing and tying up less of his wealth in the deal. the new financing could reduce the 21 billion cash contribution he's committed as well as the margin loan he secured against his tesla shares jim talked about -- we'll hear the sound at the moment -- his hopes for twitter becoming something that maybe all americans can participate in. >> i agree with that i really like the idea that this might cause tesla stock to not go down every day. i think that the younger people look at tesla the way i used to
look at apple, which is that if apple falls off, you got to be careful. watch when tesla firms as it did yesterday, it takes out the market is the entire market a trend follower to musk i think musk is the most important figure in finance today and he's trying to make money. and i think he's got great ideas for twitter, from what i've heard. and i've done work on this not with him i do not have that relationship. but with other people who have done work, he's got big plans. the plans to me make a lot of sense. right now, i think twitter is -- it's the same way it was they have great technology and haven't been able to put it in place and i think that musk can do it. david you know that elon musk does notapproach autos the way car companies do he doesn't approach solar the way solar companies do he has new insights. >> no, he doesn't. he doesn't approach space the way nasa did we're quoting these reports. what i will tell you is that i tend to use the word financing
to mean money you need to pay back what musk is looking for -- and i've heard this from a number of people -- is to syndicate his equity he's committed 21 1/2 billionaire or guaranteed that he would provide 21 and a half billion in cash. a traditional way you would finance an lbo that will be paid back from the cash flow of twitter itself there's 10 1/2 billion, i think it was, of margin loan and that will be based on tesla shares but it's the 21 1/2 billion that he is out now trying to raise to lower his equity commitment. how much or how successful he is in that is unclear i know he's approached even a couple of weeks ago when this was very early, he approached a number of private equity firms, for example, no real interest there from my understanding. but that doesn't mean he isn't going to find a lot of high net worth individuals and/or some sovereign funds or others who
would be willing to write checks to take down that 21 1/2 billion number for him is that seen as a positive maybe in some way because it will be seen -- well, likelihood of deal closed in some way you could argue, jim, that he's the dog that caught the bus and he's got to figure out a way to make it all work and does want to reduce his overall equity exposure we'll see how successful he is in that, but that's the effort that's going on right now. i don't call that financing. i call that the equity check so a bit different in terms of what being reported there, we talked about this yesterday as well >> david, i think that one of the things that we can agree to is that when the board considered what he presented in front of them verses their own management team, the board felt that musk had better plans from what i'm told, musk is going to do a top/bottom way to get more people to come in and,
david, i think that this is an undervalued asset based on the fact that it has not grown and the margins have not grown >> well, then he's going to be successful in finding people to want to participate on the equity side because there's going to be an increase in that equity at some point if he does successfully, as you say, as possible, reengineer the company so it becomes more profitable. and then, of course, at some point, you'll assume he'll take it back to the public markets, especially if you have other equity investors that are going to be looking for an exit. it's going to be fascinating to watch. again, on the regulatory front, some people may be concerned it's completely unclear to my what in any case can be made to stop this deal on an antitrust basis. there doesn't appear to be anything on that and then, you know, they'll be -- continue to be reporting on how he putting the whole thing together it's the equity check itself and then, jim, we'll see twitter is a private company
it should be fascinating to watch musk -- >> tried to use it in business to be able to do direct responses, david -- >> tesla, it never ends. >> it just doesn't work. you can't use it to be able to -- like the way you would generate with alphabet you write a check to alphabet if you're a small business for 10,000, you're going to get 15,000 back. you write a check for 10,000, they'll say, take the 10,000 back we can't do anything with it that's twistter versus google. authorities in shanghai helped move 6,000 workers and helped disinfect to get that tesla factory back and running we'll take a look at futures here, get the opening bell in six minutes. don't go away. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,
>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. let's get to cramer's "mad dash" ahead of the opening bell. >> we heard a lot earlier from -- saying throw your hands up he's the ceo of dupont reported a good number, said next quarter could be a little soft because of china he's going to buy back a ton of stock. the stock is down big. i like it. i like dupont a lot. >> q-2 guide a little soft, but they keep the full year. >> they believe that china is going to come back >> and also -- >> so, i mean, i think what you want to look at are people who
have made money who are still in the game and care passionately about it >> let's get to that opening bell it's western midstream partners celebrating its tenth listing anniversary at the nasdaq. it is tedx water street, an event licensed by ted. so we can start all over we got a bunch of travel names in hilton, expedia, mgm today, jim. >> the one i want to mention is estee lauder i think they have some better things to say on the conference call the stock is down big. it's now 227, down 31. it's very rare for retail to miss like this there were skin care problems in china and obviously china on lockdown let's watch that as being one of the best ceos who stuck with a portfolio that's not working for now. he still has a bunch of hero brands but i find that that's not
positive another one that's not positive is securities saying there's been no pickup for hca it was the netflix of health care and then let's not forget biogen threw in the powell for alzheimer's. that's an opportunity for lily which i believe is doing well on its alzheimer's. david ricks is not a promotional artist working with people who are desperate to fix it. >> as long as we're focused on weak guidance, clorox wasn't a whole lot better >> they can't -- they haven't put through price increases. i met with olen last night, they make chlorine. but i will tell you, the way i look at what linda randall is doing at clorox, i think he's going to put through the price increases. she's got some innovation. i'm not -- 3 1/4 i'm not doing it
3 1/4 yield. >> much smaller scale -- >> people would rather work than go to school. >> earning before learning, jim. >> earning before learn. how about losing money before making money he bought a lot of stock i appreciate that. >> i think we're going to talk to him later this morning. >> tell him i said hi. >> back below 17 is david with us paramount is worth looking at with a beat. revenue miss, but paramount plus adds almost 7 million subs. >> i'm looking at the stock right now and obviously seeing it down. i want to check on the call, guys and make sure if and what has been said because overall, as you point out, carl, positive at least in terms of as the quick reaction of analysts that we get in the morning. i'm looking at a number of different ones
net adds for paramount plus which is the key product here, 6.8 million. i think it was 3.1 million consolidated revenue was 7.3 million. that was just below consensus. but overall, even adds when you take out the super bowl from a year ago, remember cbs looked pretty good. so we'll sort of dig in a little bit more because not perhaps the response that was anticipated at least when these numbers first came out, guys of course, you know, we've seen our parent company add a decent amount of subscribers at peacock, paramount plus had decent subscriptions as well these numbers, the market is still trying to come to terms with and the lack of -- well, no growth whatsoever there. i guess if there hadn't been war in ukraine, you would have added some subs in russia that might have turned things positive overall. but still trying to figure that
out as we look at netflix shares down 67% paramount taking a hit here as well despite what appeared to be reasonably good numbers. >> i went over paramount and i said in the vacuum of not looking at premarket trading, maybe the -- maybe 1 million -- maybe only up a dollar but you know it's got the netflix taint. netflix is the defining stock of this period, carl, because netflix says everything has hit the wall i don't think everything has hit the wall but that's the way people are acting and i have a problem with that because i think that there are a lot of companies that are doing well i see the real estate investment trust doing well i see that oil is doing well we could asterisk them and say, that's all that's doing well my job is to find what's doing well and i thought paramount would do better but it's too close to netflix.
and netflix means, forget about it jake. it's netflix. >> it's a split in travel today. expedia does see a robust summer a couple weeks in. >> yeah, i like that quarter. >> city business international coming back. i'm not sure shares are reflecting it. boeing is the top performing dow component at the moment. >> my travel trust owns it boeing what happened? i guess the reopening. i don't know at least thank heavens we -- i kept a little bit on because i figured it can't be this bad that's a good theme for right now. i can't be this bad, paramount, i can't be this bad. >> okay. that could be your new tag line. >> yp jp morgan, did you see that i thought that was a one-way ticket to the danger zone. how about kellogg and tyson
being downgraded because people are not going to use branded cereal i saw that not going to eat branding cereal. >> trading down in cereal. >> cereal trading down with the balance sheet of the consumer being the best ever, but they're going for -- does kirkland have -- >> you're pointing to an interesting -- the bull argument is strong consumer balance sheet, but bofa this morning talking about with stock prices down, corporate budgets get a reset leading to a layoff, a weaker consumer, and a weaker corporate balance sheet. >> gold man saying there's going to be a trillion dollars in buybacks, 12% more than last year goldman does good work we have good work versus good work it really is hard. mike wilson is right giving you very good grounding
and i keep thinking within -- david, within this, the confines of some people being negative and some peoplebeing positive, is this -- may be niche -- group of companies that do well in the atmosphere that we see utilities have been great. now, you could say, jim, that doesn't count. utilities don't count. but, you know, it's been nothing but a juggernaut i don't know i mean, it does count, doesn't it don't the utilities count? or are we all -- >> they're defensive -- let's not talk about cable, please, no cable. charter got a down grade today talking about cable. >> did you see that? >> yeah, i saw that. yeah, all right, but it's a time for defensive names. that doesn't get people too excited though utilities? >> i like money. >> oil companies >> try to make money for people in names that -- >> i hear you.
>> i don't want to be in spacs that are down 70%. you buy some of the oils that are very good. oil should be 8% of the s&p. that's okay, david we just all kind of focused on netflix and how bad amazon was. >> we did. oil is a percentage of the s&p continues to go up as the s&p overall comes down -- >> does that count >> yeah, it does look at that, 38% gains so far this year. >> you know -- >> here's western digital -- at the bottom there, you're seeing western digital leading the s&p. let's talk more about it, the letter on a billion dollars worth of stock they want the company to fully separate the flash business so that it allows add and splash to be more successful they think you separate that out, the stock would reach 100 by the end of next year from you
see the current 60 and that's obviously already up nicely this morning. they also, by the way, jim, said they would offer another billion of equity capital into the flash business at an enterprise value of 17 to 20 billion which is kind of close to the current enterprise value of the overall company to be utilized either in the spin-off transaction or for equity financing in a sale or merger with a strategic partner. interesting moves there. elliot has been very aggressive of late on the private equity front. no hints atall there this would be a very large deal. but they are willing to put another billion to work if in fact the board does consider their plan to split entirely what are your thoughts >> i remember when the mergers were made six years and the company went to 105 and it looked great they were -- you know, they had them and flash together they haven't created much wealth
i would not be surprised if the ceo didn't embrace their view because if you do the splittoff and maybe you merge, there's players that could be merged i don't think it would be -- like this that has 19% of flash. i like the plan. and i think that western digitals had a long time to try to create value, david, and they created more value with seagate. i kind of like what the ceo wants to do and i wouldn't be surprised if the company doesn't want to do it. >> yeah. all right, we'll see no word, of course, this letter going out this morning we'll see what the response is from the company but it is aggressive, of course, as elliot often is the leader in act activism
we'll see whether that kind of activity continues say again? >> the letter was cordial. and i think that matters you can tell when they've been in there and they've gotten the boot this is not one of those cases >> that's a good point that's a good point. guys, obviously, here at millkin, i talked to david solomon from goldman and mark rowen from apollo, all of whom addressed the current moment and had different thoughts about that big question that suddenly seems to be looming which s are we going to see a recession at some point given what the fed is doing? taken a listen >> it looks like we're going to squeak through '22 without a recession. there's no doubt conditions are weakening. i'm not sure that's a bad thing in terms of a reset. >> clearly a correction going on personally, i think corrections
are healthy. because over the past decade and it really accelerated over the past few years, liquidity and momentum drove valuations particular in certain sectors and certain types of companies and i think there's going to be a focus back to fundamentals which is great companies, but profitable growth. >> rates are definitely going higher when rates go higher, it has an effect on the dollar and asset prices but the path of all of that and whether or not it can be navigated in a way where we land softly and don't have a serious recession is hard to predict. >> the soft landing continues to be a key question. we can revisit your airplane when the landing gear didn't come out as well, jim. mike will join me in the next hour of "squawk on the street" right here from milken we talk about a lot of things in addition to things that are specific to that alternative
asset manager. carl >> they're all trying. none of them throwing in the towel. they're all looking for great opportunities. and i think that's terrific. by the way, great opportunity. here you have clorox, guide down, but beat the number and suddenly we pay more attention to beat the number than guide down and i think that's important that would be a trend change colgate failed to beat the number and also guided down. that's the kiss of death if you've got one -- maybe you get a little movement up, carl. >> one piece of the hat trick. you promised a bit on nxpi gross margins beat the guide above, jim, and after the day where we got good guidance, can semis make a run >> these are industrial iot semis and given the fact that nxpi got pancaked for theirs, you got to be in hot performance computing or 5g. i think people just think the
auto cycle is kaput no matter what i would like to think that's not the case when you look at where mary barr's stock is, people say, okay, they had a chance. now we have recession. nobody is going to buy cars and forget about it. >> good luck >> good luck >> so we went through a bunch of tickers in what's pretty much a flat tape here, s&p is up three. let's get to bob pisani. >> sort of a flat open right now, sort of indeterminate pie print was three or four minutes ago. this moves around a lot in the last several weeks energy has been strong getting great profit reports from the energy companies. that's big the one big trend for the earning season banks are flattening out near 52-week lows.
some of the travel stocks are a little on the weaks side. travel is on fire. i've been traveling a lot recently and complaining about the prices here's why i've been complaining. they're through the roof expedia reporting, hotel rates up 20% year over year. the number of rooms that people are booking, up 52%. airfares up 39%. do you think people are walking away from that no the actually number of airline tickets told up 48%. these are stunning numbers people are traveling despite the higher prices that are out there. the other big feature of earning season so for is the stunning profits from the oil companies diamo diamo diamondback energy in west texas, they had outstanding numbers. earnings way above expectations, revenues above expectations. they're raising their dividend
16%. cash flow is start the one thing they're not raising, production levels time and again, every single big oil company has come out and said, no thanks. we'll pass on that here's what the diamondback ceo had to say diamondback is committed to maintaining our current production levels while we believe that efficiently growing our production base is achievable over the long term, we do not feel that today is the appropriate time heard this time and time again basically, no thank you. we're not going to increase our capital expenditures and then get left holding the bag when oil prices go back down and we have these massively higher prices they had this happen to them before they seemed to have learned their lesson obviously, washington and certain people are very unhappy with their decision to maintain discipline, that's the word they're all using, but from their point of view, it makes sense. from the point of view of increased oil production, which we need right now, a little bit controversial. let me move on it's just going into the fed meeting tomorrow and yesterday we had a lot of questions late
in the day -- or at least i did, from traders about was this the fed drift? what accounted for that 80-point move it's at the tendency for the market to move up the day before and the day after. interactive brokers pointed out that recent since march 2020, we've been lower 10 to 12 meetings but since the fed has gotten more hawkish, at the end of last year, it's actually gone back to the way it used to be. it's been higher four out of the last five meetings this is the fed drift. there were people scratching their heads yesterday when in the middle of the day, as we were going lower and lower, all of a sudden the market turned around we moved 80 points in a half an hour that is a stunning move. there wasn't any big news out. there was no fundamental reason for the s&p 500 to move 80 points, maybe fed drift.
a better explanation might be the poor liquidity the volatility is creating poor liquidity in the markets what does that mean? it translates into big, big, wide ask prices. when the market gets crazy and people don't understand what's going on, when you have a high volatilities, traders post smaller sizes to trade what happens here is that this creates -- moves the effect of magnifying moves in the market you want to buy 100 shares of the s&p futures contract now, buy 100 shares, you'll move it much more significantly it's a big problem that we've had for the last couple of months carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks so much bob pisani don't forget you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. sign up, find out more at
cnbc.com/join the club we talk about how important it is to find new ideas that's one thing that jim works very hard on in this club. bond report as the two-day fed meeting begins take a look at how treasuries are fairing. backing off a bit this morning back to below 2.93 we'll be right back. archlts the bond record is brought to you by pimco. a global leader in active fixed income
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a lot of activity in chips today. morgan stanley resumes activity on nvidia, looking for a gaming correction, and of course tonight it's amd and skyworks. tomorrow we'll talk to lisa su tomorrow morning, with the dow now down 22. picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim® is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor.
russian tanks, buy 12,000 of these switchblades, but the u.s. has not done it. we seemed to be continues to play with one hand behind our back how about if this invade poland and? how about france >> that's where the that thor is leading. what if? how about tonight? >> i have lodgi tech, and a airbnb >> plus a fascinating office policy basically work from anywhere. >> and let's try to make money off of that. making money still works good reminder, jim glad we had you here today.
>> thank you. when we return, quarterly beat for the parent of burger king, tim horton's and popeye's. we'll talk with the ceo of restaurant brands. restaurant brands. the doisow12w dn opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ . it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪
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good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, david faber at the milkin global conference much more of a tepid market today, despite the upside reversal, we're mixed right now, as the fed meeting begins, corporate earnings definitely in focus. rick's got some data running across the tape. >> factory orders for the month of march surging, almost double expectations, up 2.2%. that is the best since may of last year when tiffs up 2.3. if we strip out transportation, it's still solid, up 2.59%, and durable good orders, the final read, so we take the mid month read and replace it with a
better, up 1.1%, that's the second-best of the year, second off to up 1.5%, just like factory orders, it does better, so the midmetropolitan read of 1.1 is replaced with up 1.4% if we look at capital goods orders, a proxy for capital spending, it was mid month at 1%, it increases to up 1.3%. that's the best of the year. that's the best going all the way back to september of last year finally our march look at job openings and labor turn jersey, that's known as jolt, 11,549,000, a new all-time high. it replaces 11,448,000, that was the last read of last year
and if you look at rear-view mirror, up-yard revision to 11,344,000 that's a lot of millions there, isn't it, folks? i can summarize, strong on the jobs, jobs, jobs front, at least reflected by jolt. tomorrow we get the jobs number from adp and the big labor report on friday >> thank you, rick. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers. bp reporting 9 highest profit in more than a decade, but also a $25.5 billion charge as it exits its russian operations plus dupant reporting an earnings beat. keach in mind it is diwresting the transportation division, the
stock has turn slightly positive keep in mind it's about down 18% here and chegg, those shares are plunging after it cut its outlook, saying the current conditions are prompting consumers to prioritize, quote, earning over learning. stocks down 33% right now. it's down over the past year just about 80% do not my chegg's ceo next hour on "techcheck. our steve liesman has more on the fed survey. good morning >> good morning. respondents to the survey expect an aggressive fed, several believe it will lead to rece recession, but there's a thought
that some of the worst might have been priced in. the average outlook 4363 admittedly 2that's a huge range, and then december 2023 goes to 4490 with a range, but that average is up 8%, compared to the current level. also, we have this risk/reward ratio. we ask the people what's a chance of 10% increase or decline over the next six months so some sense that make risks are balanced here. two thirds are still staying they're extremely, or at least somewhat high. on the macro front, 74% saying inflation has already beat, just 7% in march, so the idea of the
8.5% -- here's the fed outlook -- 90% chance they do another hike in june, after that it falls off 2.7 trillion on the balance sheet, reduction expected over the next 2 years, 5 months that's quite a bit earlier than the previous survey. there's the terminal rate, 3.08%. that's earlier than we saw in the march survey we have not seen a change like that in a sick-week period, so this aggressive has 57% believing it will all end in recession, in august of 2023, but david, strong jobs, strong businesses, hard to see that, at least near term. david? >> yeah, yeah, and demand we hear from many people continues
to be strong as well steve, thank you it's certainly -- hire's a sampling of a handful of ceos are spoke to yesterday in the financial services sector, and their thoughts about the fed. >> the fed seems deadly serious about getting expectations service inflation under control, so liquidity will come out system, and you can see that already, and rates are going up. >> fed is raising rates. we have to give them some time to put the policies into action, but we also have to understand the world, the markets, it's a very dynamic place we're already seeing china, they're going to get that economy going again. if it starts to get going again it would be additive. >> the fed is probably focused
on the fact we have real inflation and the monetary policy actions are part of the tool kit to try to -- and try to a find a path to the soft larneding. that path is unclear >> more conversation as well this morning i'll be joined by mike arougheti morgan >> probably a good chance that will happen. we're looking forward to that conversation it's a get sood setup for our nt guest. joining us jonathan gollul and omar aguilar good morning to you both jonathan, are there opportunities in this market, even as we're hearing folks lice paul tudor jones, kevin griffin and that string of sound that david just played from milkin,
raising the cautious flags, at the very least >> yeah, first of all, the market has corrected an enormous amount year-to-date earnings expectations are up like 5% to 6% in the market, and multiples have come down dramatically. the market is much healthier now than it was at the beginning of the year you also have to think about this the fed is so far behind the curve, we're expecting to see an economy with 9% not nam gdp, and you'll still have 1 to 2% -- so you have a very, very supportive environment, so i think this inflation risk over the near term is overdone i think the down side on the market has already been recognized. >> omar, how do you see it do you think the bottom is in? >> if we look at the current facts of where we are in the
cycle and the fact that yes, the fed is in the front of the of liveoff. complete think priced into the market, and the june immediate, pretty much banked into what the expectation is, would probably say the stable will proposal be in the ranges. anytime we see these aggressive processes, usually we end up in a recession. when you combine that with the fact we have seen a significant level of inflation, that in many cases may have picked, but still not seeing any signs of, you know, big drops, i would probably think there's still a lot of down side that needs to happen the sentiment across investors and consumers is still very negative that also just puts more pressure on to what we may have to see throughout the summer
i would expect we haven't seen the final capitalization, and there's probably more pain before we get to a more corrective area. >> so a -- just given how cautious you sound right there, how do investors position themselves right now >> well, there's a few things, you know, that we encourage investors to do. number one is rebalancing. we have had an amazing bull market in a ecade. in many cases a significant portion of investors are always looking for opportunities to find ways to be tax efficient to rebalance the risks. this is something we encourage them to do rebalance, rebalance, rebalance. continue to keep a well, you know, solid portfolio based on the investment objectives. the second piece is look at what we'll see down the road. if inflation is something that's not temporary, and will still be
with you, look for opportunities in commodities, in real estate, in areas that allow them to basically reposition for those environments, as well as with respect to see the yield curve be higher. there's areas like financials, and others that will probably still benefit from what we see down the road. >> jonathan, what would you be buys >> it's interesting, on some of the things, i entirely agree i think you want to be in cyclical areas, in stocks that do well, and in an environment of inflation i think that the survey result that you were talking about before, there's no way that bringing the terminal rate of the 3% on fed funds, when we're running at 8.5% cpi, it's not even in the ballpark enough to contain this inflation it also means the fed is not doing enough in this environment to call a recession, either. so, um, i would be in the
cyclicalally, because i think the nask of this economy economy is running too hot the consumer was fantastic and the reason you had an -- we couldn't even keep up with the demand that we're seeing in the economy, so we imported more and drew down inventories. this is a strong backdrop, and you're talking about during they're tightening from vierso it leaves them incredibly accommodative. we're not using that language. this is the most accommodative year we'll have a monetary policy in a really long time, given how far behind we are in current fed funds. >> yeah, and actually having
just gotten this factory order number, and the jolts number, that would certainly back up jonathan's point, omar i wonder what you think would be the reaction tomorrow in jerome powell blesses a 25-point move. >> i think that will be just confirmation that they realize they are behind hind the curve and they need to get to the price where they tame inflation. at some point the big challenge bigs, what is the inflation expectation we want to use the real out, you know, when you actually think what the fed has to do to get to a level to keep inflation down, when you still have a -- potential recession in china and europe, you know, a
big chunk of the challenge that we face today is the fact over the course of the last print consumption went down 6.7%, which means savings rates are going down consumers are trying to get through the service economy from goods by drawing into the savings, which is not a good sign, you know, when you think that interest rates are going to be high. i would probably say there's still opportunities out there, but, you know, we still encourage people to be cautious. >> i have to disagree with omar. the savings rate came down from 7.7% to 6.6% they're not drawing into savings where it's gone negative it's that they were saving so much money because they couldn't go out, they were getting money from the government and they were saves a disproportionate
amount so they still have the ability to tap into the savings. the consumer well is just extraordinary. consumer balance sheets, corporate balance sheets, and you're seeing that with credit card data. consumers are increasing balances, you know why because they paid off the credit cards and they have the ability to borrow more money banks are saying loan demand is getting stronger all of these are signs that there's a well to be tapped in terms of further up side for consumers, even if we have negative real wage growth, but the consumer really strong here. they're all saying the same thing. we're going to leave the conversation there, but love kicking off the hour with a lively debate. thank you, gentlemen with the s&p trading just above the flat line. >> that was a good one.
still we'll talk with burger king's parent company, and a lot more, when "squawk on the street" continues in a moment. (laughter and music) (bat swinging) the aflac pre-pain show. aflac! ohh, mark is about to become a living piñata. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac? - (whimpers) i don't think he has any candy in there. am i at least going to get hit hard enough to forget this? nobody is going to forget this, ever. (bat hitting) - ohhhh i'mma call his momma. aflac! aflac!
>> hey, carl, great to have time with us this morning thanks so much. >> looking through the comps, it does look like burger king the strongest est child at the mom. we saw strong support with tom horton's in canada bk international was up, bk u.s. was relatively flat, but we continue to gain traction versus or competition 1/2 u.s all in all, a positive performance for the quarter, and confirmation we're on the right path the other people that i think is important is weren't able to contribute because to shareholders with significant capital through the first quarter, both in terms of dividend and well as share repurchases. so all in all, a positive quarter, and momentum on our
side >> talk to me about, we mentioned the inflation train we're all trying to ride characterize for the time being your prizing power relative to where you think your costs are, not just today, but where they're going later this year. >> yeah, this is a very delicate balances act that we take. we look at it from a guest perspective and we look at the competition as well. all in all, we see consumer behavior consistent with what we saw throughout the pandemic. there's a lot of concern around inflation, but we also understand that food away from home inflation is a bit lower than in terms of food inflation at home. so the restaurant business, ours in particular, has a strong positioning in terms of everyday value, well positioned to weather the storm. it's a delicate balancing act
and we want to make sure we take care of the guests through this stage. >> those arguing now for peak inflation, the idea that we have topped out on year over year growth, some retires are coming back to work, do you think that labor supply is easing or maybe will ease in the back half >> labor and staffing is always a priority for our business. we have probably come out of the one of more different stretches in recent memory we have seen applications improve somewhat in the restaurant space, in our restaurants, particular have seen staffing levels improve turnover has stabilized a bit, but i think there's more work to do, and i think our franchise years are doing exception at jobs, and we're continues to work closely with them to make
sure they have the tools necessary to provide the right type of environment, easier operation so that we can continue to address staff, which is so critical to our business jose, it's david what happened to popeye's. comps were down, something go amiss there? >> the popeye's business has been on a strong growth trajectory we mentioned it in our prior pared remarks this morning, since the acquisition back in 2017, we have grown total systemwide sales by nearly 50% we have added 1,000-plus restaurants, and the business is getting stronger our franchise owners here in the u.s. believe in the long-term growth prospects of the brand. they have opened more restaurants in the first quarter of this year than ever before, so there's a lot of positive
things happening, and i think we have a lot of work to do to continue to grow top-line sales. but all in all we're encouraged where popeye's is as a brand >> okay. but you conditions answer. comps were down 3% was that expected? what was the reason? >> we were lapping toward the tail end of the sandwich phenomenon with popeye's, and found a load of competition in the chicken sandwich space in particular there has been some headwinds in the near term, but as i mentioned, we're encouraged and positive about the long term and we have a path for growth, as well as in terms of unit growth. all right. you're right in the middle of so many cross-currents, consumer price and supplying, labor supply and pryicing.
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unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything. welcome back to "squawk on the street." another big earnings mover to watch today is pfizer, posting results before the bell this morning. our meg tirrell has the latest for us >> hey, morgan pfizer beating for the uarter, reiterating the full-year forecast for revenue of $98 billion to $102 billion. it lowered guidance due to foreign exchange impacts, as well as some changes in accounting, but reiterating that full-year forecast.
>> a lot of that coming from the covid business paxlovid, and the vaccine comop irnaty analysts trying to parse it out, as we try to understand the path of this pandemic, and ordering patterns another huge question for pfizer will be m&a plans, that as implications for the entire biotech sector the etf tracks more -- that's been incredibly beaten down over the last year, now down more than 40%, m&a is something invest offers will hopefully bring some of those values back up pfizer has said it plans to bring in $25 bill onby 2030 through business development, so expecting them to be very active with a lot of the covid revenue that has come in from their
vaccine and antiviral. david? >> meg, thank you. after the break right here at the milkin conference i'll have a conversation with michael arougheti. back in two minutes. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
months how worried are you? >> not that worried, which is ironic, because i grew up in the credit business, where you're taught to be worried about everything there's a lot to think about, geopolitical instability, but the reason i'm not worried as some, we have the benefit in our business to look at 3,000 middle-market assets across the globe, and the numbers are coming through e. at least through today. people are passing through price increases, mood in the boardroom is quite good. so i think there's a lot though think about going forward, but we're coming into this rate hike cycle with a lot more what i would say fundamental strength and buffer in the economy than i think we're used to. >> credit deterioration, you're not seeing that? >> or portfolios are probably healthier than we have seen them in our 25 years. >> you walk around the has here,
and a lot of people are concerned, talking about a recession, even as soon as later this year, but probably 2023, but you're not seeing that in the underlying credit. >> recessions happen weft people not really talking about magnitude. i think we have to let things play out here, but we're coming into this at all-time high coverage rates, at all-time loo loans to value so there's just a lot of things that need to happen before we're talking about credit tee tieruation, you said the global search for reliable income continues unabated. >> yes. >> as investors seek premium
returns. you raised $13.7 billion in capital. explain, what does that mean >> this has been a decades-long trend, which is saying, everybody is looking for yield that's whether you're a rye tire year litch longerretire year lig longer you're already seeing it in performance. high-yield bond market is experiencing difficulty. floating rate loan markets are up high single digits. now we're seeing a second phase of growth, as people pursue floating rate credit assets. >> as the risk-free rate moving up overall, does that abate?
>> i don't think so. the mindset of most investors is more total return oriented i think what we like is there's excess yield available in the private markets, and so though excess yields actually floats along with -- so almost counter-intuitive we may see more demand, so as base rates go up returns and floating rates assets go up is there a number where that dynamic changes? >> i think there's certain investors, for example, insurance companies, that are truly matched, but at that point you probably see other investors turn on. so our experience has been there is puts and takes. >> six months ago, or conversation, we did spend a lot of time on private credit.
it's only grown, the number of press release on who financed it, your name is there, and i'm not seeing a bank's name is that a trend for the foreseeable future >> i think so. we share transaction flow. i think what you're experiencing, as we have scaled up, the private markets just provide more certainty of execution, speed of execution, a little bit more create activity around financing, so this is a trend that's been increasing as we've been scaling and the banks are pursuing larger clients, but when you get into markets like there, it becoming an attractive solution >> just about the diversity of your own portfolio your sixth asian special situations fund, who knew, and on from there. >> yeah. >> does that give you conferred
sort of knowing. >> yeah, it gives me comfort looking at ares globally we can offer broad-based solutions to clients we can move with them to try to identify the best return, and also goes back to -- we just see more interesting when we see flowing in asia, risks in europe, all of our investors are comparing notes to identify where we think there's value in these markets and that global lens is helpful. >> i want to talk about a specific situation i know you're not going to comment much on twitter, but broadly speaking, there's been a lot of conversation about that i think 'trying to indicate equity, not necessarily more financing, but your name has come up as well. is there some interest you would have or even an equity component?
>> i'm not going to comment specifically, but as i just said, private markets are becoming a more important piece of the conversation. i think what people don't fully understand about the way the private credits are working, in markets like this, we can come in senior to equities at values that makes perfect sense, but may be incongruous with the way equity markets are thinking about a trajectory of a company, so any company with a quality enterprise, quality brand, we'll likely want to look at it. at the end of the day, what is the durable cash flow we can underwrite >> i mean, carvana, what was appealing about that >> not getting into specifics,
again, but the equity has been underperforming as of late, but when you look at the market cap that sits there, it's quite afracturive. that is a good example of a bit of a disconnect between the view of the equity and the view of the credit i think that's something we need to spend more time talking about. >> something we also should spend more time talking about, just the growth of private companies looking overall. what stops that, if anything >> i don't think anything does. >> some of that is just compounding growth within the priority market. some of it is the structure of the capital markets, so if you look at the liquid dead markets, they are moving to scale and freeing up opportunities you look at the private equity markets, they're moving to scale
and getting more concentrated. part of it is the shift to true liquidity. i think people realize with each passing cycle liquidity is not there at the price that they need, so most investors we talk to, retail and institutional, have really reexamined how much equity -- liquidity they really need i would expect that to continue. you mentioned it a bit, but on the private equity side, some of the portfolio companies, what are you seeing right now right now things are strong? we tent to be more growth investors. there's a rerating in the sector, valuations are coming down we're growing through that right now, performance-wise, i talked about price increases are getting passed through, they're sticking i think the question for us
going forward and the 50% of the capital we haven't invested, when is the right time to get in and when do we capture that new opportunity? >> it'sstarting to happen. i think that's a bit of a function of summer/demand. i think the private equity industry is generally very active over the last 24 months they're ready to come back at a time when a lou of it of investe saying i want to see how things play out. finally, exits are also important. do they get put off a bit here >> absolutely. i think you'll see a reset of expectations, all of a sudden, saying, hey. generally given the amount of capital in the market and how ma they're these markets are, once it resets, you'll see transactions come back. it's great to have a six-month catch-up
>> it is thanks for having me. expedia one of the big lag laggards, airbnb and bookings also in sympathy the losses approaches 17%. stay with us incredible places with the help of magical technology. but what about today? ♪♪ i can't wait for what tomorrow will bring, but in the meantime, let's enjoy the ride... ♪♪
that said, despite initially captures, the ceo peter beck explained on twitter, they are not happy with the way it was flying they plan to join spacex for reusing boosters, to date 9 only company to refurbish a recovered booster appeared use if for another mission has been spacex. rocket labs moves closer to that g goal carl morgan, this morning we have an exclusive with one of big earnings mover, this morning, chegg, taking us back to levels we saw in 2018 that's coming up athtot e p of the hour
broadly exclusive as possible, where ideally most of america is on it and talking. i've also vowed this publicly we have to get rid offed bots, and scams, and we don't people gettg tricked out of their money, i'm on the warpath so on the -- if somebody's operating a button troll army, i'm definitely their enemy >> that was elon musk last night, at the met gala, looking very sharp, and talking twitter, of course, what we've been talking about in regards to twitter is his purchase of the company, and said equity check that he will be writing for that, some $21.5 billion, some of which already seems to have been raised last week with the sale of tesla shares but as i've been reporting as well, it certainly seemed to be some conversations going on between mr. musk and other potential investors about them taking some of the equity that
he is guaranteeing and putting it up themselves morgan, unclear how that shakes out, of that $21.5 billion, and how much other people will potentially step up for but there seems to be an effort under way to at least take his exposure down a bit. of course, we haven't talked as much as about his time i can only imagine, already, how he divides his time between so many of his efforts. obviously spacex, which you cover so closely and well for us, and tesla. and i don't know, so many other things, the boring company, and now twitter. he's only one guy. there's only 24 hours in a day. >> yeah. sleep is for suckers we know from his comments in the past, especially around things like tesla, when there was the whole production ramp a couple years ago, he has no problem grabbing a sleep bag, sleeping on the factory floor, not necessarily sleeping it will be interesting to see how that time gets divided pulling this story forward,
mine, shares of twitter, since elon musk made the offer to buy it, have risen something like 7%, shares of tesla are down nearly 12% the key takeaway, to me, with those comments from musk last night, is the fact that this is a man that, across multiple companies has built products that customers of those companies tend to love so when you talk about getting rid of bots, when you talk about a potential better authentication process or checks and balances around authentication, carl, talk about open sourcing, the algorithms and what that means for transparency for folks worried about things like shadow banning, there's a bulk case to be had, the devil is in the details, to bring on more users feeling more comfortable on the platform and thus potentially more advertising i realize this is a very controversial topic with a lot of debate back and forth. >> yeah, and hard to see how advertisers would like completely unadulterated content. but i thought it was
interesting, his big complaint has been the lack of tweets from high impact users, the very people he was celebrating with last night at the met gala not a coincidence he went another year let's get a sector sort with our bertha coombs this morning. >> good morning, carl. we've seen stocks this morning pretty much mixed, no clear direction this hour, but the energy sector has been consistent outperformer so far today. devon energy, diamondback and coterra are leading that sector. macro economic trends are still in focus, with diamondback saying it will maintain current levels of production, despite the fact we're seeing these really high oil prices, due to challenging operating conditions related to labor and materials shortages, along with overall inflation. morgan, even as everybody talks about energy driving inflation,
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#. we've got big names to report after the bell, including starbucks down more than 30% year to date, down another 2% right now. kate rogers has more on that for us hi, kate. >> morgan, good morning. analysts are looking for in store sales to increase by 6.8%. a 9% increase in the americas and a 0.6% increase internationally. china, starbucks second home market will also be in focus as covid weighed on its performance last court with same-store sales falling 14%. it remains to be seen how that plays out this quarter in the u.s. and china in q1, inflation also caused the company to slash its earnings outlook and it said it would weigh on margins full year the big story is howard schultz's return as ceo running a very different starbucks
consumer preferences in the importance of things like mobile order and pay and drive through. the company stays down an ongoing push to yien unionize. the union filed a charge against starbucks alleging the made had violated the national labor relations act. schultz told u.s. store managers last month the company was reviewing its new benefits program. without separately negotiated contracts. starbucks said this is the law it's not howard's opinion. now one of schultz's first moves as interim ceo was to suspend the company's buyback program as a way to invest more into stores and partners we're going to be watching to see if any announcements are made on that front and if analysts are paying more attention to this ongoing union battle in terms of both cost and public image for the coffee the stock, is down about 30% or so in the last six months, morgan, back to you. >> kate rogers, thank you. meantime, president biden is on his way to alabama where he'll tour a lockheed martin
missile factory using his visit to tout the anti-tank javelins the u.s. has been sending to ukraine.n lockheed and -- highlights the trickiness of ramping up production lines. even as the company is already investing to add more capacity to make javelins, it takes time. if the government places more orders this year, it could still take another six to 12, to even 18 # months for deliveries to materialize. the reason, many defense names haven't factored into incremental sales in 2022 forecasts, and it also speaks to why, after a big jump in stocks to start the year, defense stocks, they've all given up some of those gains in recent weeks, all down despite being higher today, down over the past month or so. so we will continue to keep an
eye on that this afternoon in the meantime, just getting a quick check on the markets, it is a mixed picture, s&p is slightly higher, the dow is flitting between gains and losses that's going to do it for us here on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now. good tuesday morning, welcome to "techcheck," i'm carl quintanilla, with deirdre bosa and jon fortt. today, tech stocks still cheap and not worth buying the valuations of these prices, one example mean chegg, a pandemic down another 40 cratering after poor guidance. the ceo are join us this hour. and bearish comments from a few investing titans ray dalia warns that even know tech valuations have not come in, not aed goo toim to get long equities paul tudor jones said
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