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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  May 4, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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rolls on ebay, twilio, oil came off from inter day highs. got slightly better than expected inventory numbers and the vix is still below 29 with two hours to go until we get the fed and another 30 minutes after that for the presser let's get to the judge and the half all right, carl, thanks so much welcome to the half time show. i am scott wapner, front and center the market moment of truth historic fed decision is two hours away, your money hanging on every word jay powell says. the investment committee on what stocks need to stage a rally let's show you the markets 12 noon in the east. red across the board as we build up to the big moment at 2:00 the dow down by 15, trying to figure out where it wants to go. it is wait and see mode. nasdaq selling off a bit, 297 is the yield on ten year. liz young, biggest rate hike in
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two decades. steve liesman says a fast and furious cycle is expected. has the market priced in enough of the fed >> the market is saying the investment is killing us it will be worse than the actual event. but we're in the thick of it for may, june, july. this is when we expect 50 basis points, another 50 or 75, and another 50 after that. the market has to decide if it is enough and if it is working we probably get that 50 bits today, two more cpi readings before the june 16th meeting we might be able to confirm a peak inflation before we have to do the next hike if that happens and the fed relaxes a bit, we feel more relaxed as consumers, i think you have an opportunity for second half of the year to shape up pretty well. >> jason, i keep hearing the fed
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needs to leave a dovish feeling with investors, certainly not the opposite of the market, the market is not going to like it not what brad gerstner said yesterday. >> promise you when we hear from the fed tomorrow on may 4th, they're going to be as hawkish as they've ever been and the reason for that is they don't want the market to back off from rate expectations. but then we're going to get the may 11 cpi print i believe we'll see it lower month over month i think it will happen again in june and happen again in july. i think we'll see further signs of global slowing. i expect by end of summer to early fall you'll hear from the fed, right, that they accomplished some of their goals with rate hikes. >> what do you make of that, jason, hawkish as they've ever
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been >> yeah, scott obviously as liz mentioned, this cycle in terms of the qt is one of the best telegraph cycles there is 50 basis point hike today i think is baked into the cake i think an up side surprise here is slim. but what i will say and i think brad hit the nail in the head, as we look to cpi next week and look to other inflationary prints this week, what we've seen already is headline numbers have been high really high. whether ppi, pce or cpi, but core numbers have started to moderate some. and i do agree if we see a cpi print next week that's lighter than expected and core and durable goods start to continue to siphon off, i think that's a tail wind for the market and it is going to be a tough slay, this quarter that we're in, but
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we could see clearer skies ahead if not enough, as much pressure on the fed and the market and the economy is doing some of the work. >> they've got a lot of pressure on them. ken griffin calls it the most uncertainty since the great financial crisis, paul tudor jones, tough position they're in powell needs to thread the needle he does. he has a tough task. steve liesman is in d.c. ahead of that historic decision. first in person one for a news conference in a long time because of the pandemic, but he has a very tough task. i'm sure he knows that >> that's right, scott we say thread the needle sometime that's what the fed does, it threads the needle. it has perhaps a lot more at stake this time on threading the needle, not a lot of wiggle room here i look at a couple things. what's expected today, what the market expects in the future, that's where it is
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50 basis point rate hike, hasn't been that in 22 years. $95 billion in monthly balance sheet runoff, the most it will have ever done and then language that people are expecting, they'll say in the statement moving expeditiously toward neutral, 2.25, 2.5% rate. a quick look at the outlook for rates. 2% by august 3% by january. and then 3.45. then it comes down, that's what the market is betting. one thing to show you, scott, look at that 100% chance now in the market, which i think is aggressive. four 50 hikes through september. 50% chance of 75 the market is trading now with 75 basis.hike for july i think the market is too certain. i don't think powell knows what he is going to do past june.
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i think it was jason talked about the idea maybe you see cooling off. i think the fed does 50 now, 50 at the next meeting, and i think it goes back down to quarters if it gets help from inflation numbers that jason talked about. >> almost doesn't matter what longer road outlook will be, it is here and now. not only what happens today but in the subsequent meetings that are right in front of us we talk about threading the needle, steve. the problem is the eye of the needle is smaller than ever, right? getting the thread through there is going to be very, very difficult. >> can i pick up on that, scott? >> yeah. >> here's the thing. there's a needle and there's a thread and the eye of the needle is 11 months, 12 months, 13 months down the road. you can't even see it because the real question we are having is not should the fed raise rates. of course it should, even if you didn't have an inflation problem, the fed should be
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hiking rates can it hike rates, get back to neutral, solve the inflation problem, and do so without what our fed survey is predicting, a recession, 16 or 15 months down the road. >> i also suggest a year ago, whatever the appropriate time would have been to start raising interest rates, the eye of the needle was like a hula hoop, it has been shrinking and shrinking because they waited so long. that's why the task is so difficult. i wonder now what is the perfect scenario for stocks in the near term i want your answer, then i am going to let you run, i know you have to bounce then i want to talk to the committee. i think 50 today and clear signal, clear as he could possibly be, 50 next time, for example. probably is okay 50 today, understanding it might be 75 next time, i don't think the market is good with that >> look, i think the market is going to have to take what's given to it at this point as the
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fed -- i don't think powell wants to do a 75 until he has to and when he has to is when he's done a couple of 50s and perhaps things look around, not getting cooperation from numbers perfect scenario for the market is china opens up, end the supply chain disruptions, solve the problem of energy and food out of ukraine and russia. it is a tall task that's the issue, scott, and that you do in fact get inflation coming down while the fed moves up to neutral and it can get to neutral and stop around 2.25, 2.5. but that, if you listen to someone like larry summers is wishful thinking with rose colored glasses. >> you have to go. i will let you do that look forward to seeing you in a couple hours' time an interesting afternoon joe, the same question i asked steve. what is the perfect scenario for stocks today >> pretty sure that steve would
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disagree with what i'm about to say, pretty sure you're going to disagree with it, most people would be disagreeing with it i think a hawkish fed is a credible fed i want more. i want them to do it now i want them to fight inflation in the moment. china will reopen. when china reopens, we'll see an acceleration in global growth. why is it when we introduce emergency measures we can cut interest rates 100 basis points on a monday morning like we did in 2020 when we cut them 50 basis two weeks ago, but yet we take away the interest rate cuts, we do it slowly. in 2008 we lowered interest rates 400 basis points we did three 75 basis point cuts i think what the market would rally on is if we had a very aggressive fed that lowers the
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expectation on market participants as to what the federal reserve is going to have to do. do too much right now. i think markets would be fine with that. >> i just don't know steve, do you think they would be fine with that? i don't know what the likelihood of that happening is, seems slim and none cramer made that argument, they're going too slow just do a lot like joe says now. we'll figure it out. you guys are so far late and behind that you've got to make up for it. just do it now >> well, scott, i think that's half the equation what the fed does, and yes, we have to focus on it. i don't think the fed gets more hawkish in terms of 75 i think 50, which is a long way from where they were a few months ago is going to do it today. i think the market can rally, another rally i would sell let me give you background i have been out in l.a. since
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february and caught up with old friends, made some new ones, sat down, name it of a who's who, last key, joe manchin, josh freedman, phenomenal investor, jim gorman, sovereigns, i could tell you there's a buyer strike. yes, the market will eventually come back, but right now everybody aside from brad who i spent a half hour with after he was on air, they're all negative and they're negative because of what's going on below the market so of course, the nuclear situation for the market is putin. nobody knows what he is going to do not the former head of the cabinet for the former head of department of defense for the cabinet under trump and obama, but they are more worried about what's going on. >> maybe there's too much negativity to your point everybody out there is so
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negative, that's probably why gersner is like what is everybody talking about. >> i don't think so. if you listen to what brad said, he said buy in a year or two, you'll be okay i am looking down, looking at price of entry, and i still think i get a bad point of entry. if i miss the bottom by 10%, who cares. it will be a long way up i don't want to lose more money in the market. i am going to wait the private equity market, those prices held up those have to come down also there's never been an economic cycle where private markets haven't come down. >> you have been right to be negative you have been right to be negative because the market has been upset and the question is are we at a point or nearing that point where we're not going to be
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upset any more, where the market has come to grips fully with what lies ahead, then can stage a rally as some called for, eric johnston saying 8 to 10% in may. gersner is trying to put money to work. obviously not in the next ten minutes. but valuations have come down. i look at what you're doing, you sell a lot you continue to sell you sold on semi, you sold amazon on the back of what was a disappointing quarter. you're consolidating still in the face of the concerns that you have about the market. >> right let's go through each one. on semi, sold out for the year, had a good quarter, traded up in the quarter. and it held up relatively well ve versus other semis i am looking to put money in stocks that haven't held up well sell on delta which everybody criticized, they reported a phenomenal quarter
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17% in two weeks have to be a moron not to book that profit given that i lost elsewhere. jabil held up. why not take some off the table. in terms of amazon, look at ibm, had a good quarter, i was wrong on that, they're doing well, they're making moves in web services talking to some people, it guy at a large hospital change, agnostic as to which cloud service he uses. there's price competition going on things don't grow forever regardless the industry. you take money and profits, you do it. amazon is okay, but i'm very worried about the consumer what the fed does is only part of it. you have a consumer underwater, 70% living paycheck to paycheck. if the fed eases up, consumer doesn't give a damn. they're paying high prices at the pump and for food.
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i would rather be cautious you still have the others saying no, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. and people that don't have to put money in the market that can put it in or hold it for better time, my experience, are waiting to hold for another time >> liz, same question i asked some of the others the perfect scenario for stocks to rally beginning today after the press conference is what >> the perfect scenario, first of all, perfect never really happens exactly how we want it to >> i know, you know what i'm alluding to. >> we get what we expect today, 50 basis points. i want to react to joe's comments a little bit. falling into a crisis is different than coming out of one. we went in in an ambulance, that was a rescue mission by the fed to prevent further contagion through financial markets and to throw things off at this point, yes, were we on
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the drugs for too long probably did we get to a point this is a little scary inflation wise, absolutely weaning us off the drugs has to be a more delicate act than putting us on them i think they have to do this in a methodical way what i don't think is a persuasion is for them to go 50 and then 75 and then back down to 50. that's going to confuse the market we need steady we need clear expectations we need jerome powell to continue to hate surprises what they've done is left the door open to be more hawkish and aggressive if they have to be. i just don't think they're going to have to be. i think it will take care of itself as we move through the summer where you see expectations as joe mentioned, you'll see the expectations for neutral rate come down, see the speed the fed has to move come down, and the market will react appropriately in a rally fashion. i want to define rally, too. i hope we don't have 8 to 10% may.
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i think we'll give that back i think we can start a small rally but needs again to be steady and focused. >> joe, i thought liz eloquently answered your question, right? you keep the patient alive by any means necessary. when you feel they're ready to go out, you don't tell them to run a marathon right away. that's why they need to be more deliberate granted, they're late, very late but nonetheless, need to be deliberate along the process i go back to the whole idea of they're going to raise 50 unless it is a shocker, right it comes down to what the language is next time. the market assumes 50, 50, maybe another 50 if it is 50 today, i don't know, it could be 75, we're going to see, i don't think that's going to soothe, joe, the market at all. >> so here's where i disagree.
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in 2008 the removal needed to be slow you had an economy coming from a balance sheet recession. in 2020 remember the market went down 35% in 33 days. we recovered all those losses by august by august. so we actually did way too much and now because we did way too much we've got a monetary climate that's the most challenged in the last 40 years because you have the presence of inflation. and you have to fight that you talk about the market rallying 8 to 10% in may. >> i am not talking about it, that's what somebody else said >> let's remind everyone, market should rally in month of may well known, goldman, sachs put out a report monday about it blackout ends for s&p 500 companies. middle of may, these companies are coming in to buy their stock. steve mentioned something that's interesting. private equity valuations.
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still high real estate valuations, citistill high you have speculation in the market as a result from all the stimulus, fiscal and monetary that went into the system, abundant liquidity and has to come out fast and it is not coming out fast enough >> we'll make that the last word i promise, i will get you back starbucks surging on the back of earnings one of the investment committee members bought that stock. they have another big one to talk about, too. half time back in two minutes. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster.
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they're focused on the economy right now, they could give a damn about the markets they only care about inflation that's where you have to focus on demand destruction and what it does to multiples. >> they want to get excess speculation out of the market, the kind of speculation joe was talking about. i mean, they don't care if the market goes down in that process, they don't want to destroy the stock market. >> no, they don't. >> well, that's in part what makes their act such a balance so delicate. >> absolutely. >> let's talk starbucks. rallying on the back of its earnings one of the investment committee earnings just bought the stock, which has been in the penalty box. stephanie link joining us. there you are. hey, steph why did you jump into starbucks here >> hi. because i think it is exciting here right now you're at an inflection point. stock down 35% from july 21
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highs, and i thought the quarter was really pretty good give kevin johnson, former ceo the credit, but howard schultz now can take that and run with it in terms of building momentum the comps in the u.s. at 12%, super impressive, much better than expected. that speaks to the demand. and that speaks to people want their products and still want their products in china, not so much. down 23% we know china is going to reopen at some point. then you have two things that are sort of interesting. they eliminated buy back, $20 million buy back in place. now they have cash and money to invest in products, in people, in stores. they're starting to do that. i think they have to do something in food. and i think they will. then you have a catalyst, analyst day in september where i think that howard schultz will do a good job talking about how there's a lot of up side and opportunity. >> thinking about prospects of a slowing economy, you mention china. they're going to reopen, we
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don't know when. and we don't know to what degree their economy will slow either then you have the union issue. it is a lot in front of howard schultz whose interim by the way to deal with >> he will stay on the board, when they hire someone new, he will be involved stock is down 35% from july, 2021 a lot. a lot of bad news in the stock 23 times forward estimates, the stock at the low end of historical range i started with a small position and i'm going to continue to add. i believe in their brand power and i believe in howard schultz. >> joe, you used to own it, and you don't. got fed up with down draft in the stock. >> i did the exit was a good one. i have been watching it, waiting for opportunity to get back in i like steph's strategy. i think for me personally, i want a little more clarity on who ultimately will be the ceo,
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what at the september investor day the growth vision is going to be. this is a much different company in 2022 than the company that howard schultz left in 2018. 75% of all of the orders are either mobile or drive through or delivery. you have a younger consustomer base it will give me more clarity, probably enter at that price i like what steph is doing and i know the way steph thinks about markets, she's slowly going to be buying stock the remainder of the year i imagine. >> talk about another move, steph. you no longer have exposure to the semi space which is interesting. you sold broadcom, and that was the last of it >> yeah. and you know, i had sold nxpi and lam research, both were big positions beginning of the year. sold them, made good money same with broadcom, too. but i do not like the action the
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way amd is trading that was a phenomenal quarter. 71% total revenue growth, guiding 60% revenue growth because it is more synergistic to the company underlying demand in data center, there was nothing wrong, stock is up 2% this stock down 44% from highs low expectations and the stock can't rally. i am a little concerned, this is bigger picture, why i sold the other semis, i am concerned about double and triple ordering because customers can't get their stuff. you're seeing that i think that will come home to roost at some point, not now, supply chains are still a problem. at some point that will come back to roost and i think i don't want to be in these names at least for now in the next couple months. we'll revisit if they pull back. >> worry about pcs, strength in gaming your points are well taken appreciate it. >> thanks, scott. >> talk about other moves. steve weiss, you sold micron, is
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that right, mu >> i did i did. i didn't buy it that long ago. what turned into a winning trade for five minutes turned into let me get out with my money intact. here's why i did it. to steph's point, she's dead on. look at skyworks today, corvo. skyworks was in line, it beat this quarter, was in line for next quarter corvo was a beat and raise they look cheap, look cheap, 30% higher bottom is not in for any skyworks hitting a 52 week low i have a lot of concern about double ordering which nobody will admit to. and i have concerns about inventory buildup. and i've got concerns about china and what's going on geo politically. i don't want to be in those stocks we can talk about how micron is
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trading at four times earnings or five times earnings that's if earnings exist now and you know what, i think you have another 10% down each of the stocks again, i would rather wait. >> jason, doesn't bode well for nvidia, darling stock of a lot of people. 192 where it currently sits. 52 week high of 346. >> yeah. and i hear the points on double ordering and kind of state of the supply chains, what's going on in china. i think it makes a lot of sense. i think this is a story that plays back to your investor, time horizon, where you are, and really understanding that obviously a lot of semis, they power many things we do. the business model for nvidia and the qualcomms, these are names that are long term holds for me i'm not in and out of these names. i know they have a cyclical tilt, that plays into some
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volatility as well, but for me i'm not going to do anything with nvidia, and some of the other chips i own. i can understand the points and i think they're well taken. >> joe, wrap it up with amd because you own it as steph said, i don't know how you could come away from that quarter with any better feeling what's happening with amd and the job lisa su is doing there. the market votes, and the market will do what it is going to do what are you doing with the stock? >> i am holding amd. i own it personally. love the valuation, the growth and market share and computer processors i think overall, i like jason's comments, thinking about semiconductors active management is coming back semiconductor industry is the place where you have to be active you have to be tactical. we sold micron out of joe t the other day. there are semiconductor names that i don't think you wan to
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own here, intel after listening to amd's report, seeing earnings last week, i think it is idiosyncratic. it is about what single stock you want to own. >> coming up, does the fed take center stage, cnbc polled contributors which sectors will outperform from here individual stocks they're most focused on we'll reveal the results and debate the picks as well one hour, 28 minutes, 50 seconds. back after this.
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in ukraine >> with regard to the additional sanctions, we are open to additional sanctions and i have been in consultation, speaking with members of the g7 this week about what we're going to do and not do and covid making a come back in maine, forcing some schools to remote learning at least 8 schools reported outbreak with over 1,000 cases reported among all schools in the state. silicon valley john doerr giving $1 billion to stanford. the money used to create a school focused on climate change and sustainability he tells "new york times" that climate is the new computer science, and an area young people want to work in for all the right reasons. tonight, corporate america struggles with the national abortion debate. ou cpaes get involved. half time coming back after this and some you grow to rely on.
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countdown is on. less than 90 minutes before the fed decision, a critically important news conference. steve liesman is there you can bet on a question from steve. and you can get answers from
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jeffrey gundlach he will be here for overtime the cnbc survey polled managers where to invest between now and end of the year, taking obviously the fed into consideration. energy, the top pick from a sector level, followed by technology one interesting change from the last few weeks we polled them end of march. 62% financials were a top pick today, liz young, that answer is zero can you believe that nobody nobody nobody wants to invest in financials take sofi out of the answer. >> i'm a little surprised, there was nobody that tells me there's a decent opportunity, if you're a contrarian, there's a decent opportunity to buy for possible bounce if i am consistent with thoughts earlier in the show, if we have
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relaxation in fed policy and they don't need to get to the end as quickly as we are expecting now, you should see a come back in places like financials and industrials even small caps. i am a little surprised nobody wants financials i have been a financials bull a long time. i haven't exited a financials position but haven't added to it it is something i am waiting out. >> jason snipe, what about the energy answer from folks i find that interesting, too 70% end of march, best performing sector, people like to run with the crowd. now it is only 36. >> yeah. but it is still in the top core. on the inflationary side, it is trading discount to the market obviously it is an inflationary hedge. it runs well with inflation. and i think there are folks as you look at crude oil as a proxy
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and the unrest in ukraine, folks are buying energy in the dip it pulled back in terms of what we think about it, i still think it is an opportunity i like other sectors better, energy could do well. >> what do you like better >> i like health care. i think there are so many tail winds. whether you believe that we are late cycle, trying to be defensive, i think one, just a tight labor market is soothing to the health care market, preventive care, folks are back at work, doing their thing, and there's also demographic tail winds as an aging population needs to hit the health care marketplace to service their needs. i like health care i think there's opportunity. >> you're not the only one bank of america calls it the favorite overweight. i had erin brown yesterday on revealing her play book, health care was top of her list, too,
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steve. late cycle that's one of the reasons people are picking health care in this environment. >> yeah. and scott, i look at you and say w wow, the population is aging fast demographics to jason's point underscore that. look, health care is also recession resistant. as you go through the other sectors, where do you wind up? health care. while there are so many open jobs out there, companies in order to be more competitive have to upgrade benefits that they offer to workers. that also goes to health care. i don't own united health. keep waiting for major decline to buy it. never have gotten it they're the leader in the sector moderna put up a great quarter, stock is down. that's not a tomorrow stock, that's a stock in the future as the platform comes to fruition that will be a winner. i like health care also.
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and if i didn't whip on filling out the survey, you would see one vote to financials, i think they're cheap. i haven't shaved my positions, i have a goldman or b of a because they're cheap. they'll do well but it will be rockier. >> of course they're cheap mayo was with me in overtime, mike mayo, top bank analyst from wells fargo securities said i've never been so right on the fundamentals of the banks and so wrong on stocks when pressed when are the stocks going to start working again. joe, in health care again, back to that where jason took us, smartly so, a lot of people like it here. >> at the beginning of the year, scott, told you it was my favorite sector. health care trades at a valuation discount coming into 2022 of 22%. overweight in health care, 20%
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exposure relative to s&p and 14%. a lot of names i own personally, medical devices, large cap pharma, i own united health, and biotech, i want to ensure that you're in large cap. look at a.m. general and abvi higher be careful with that one but in cluesively, health care without question from a sentiment and position perspective provides an opportunity. we came into this year sentiment depressed, positioning underweight, and now you're seeing rebuild in both. >> we not only ask people about the sectors they like, we asked individual stocks as well. coming up, we go through a few of those names as well we have earnings movers to hit after the break. join the cnbc fantasy stock draft challenge. scan the code or go to cnbc.com/stock draft challenge track your progress, trade to
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all right. uber doesn't look as bad as lyft. joe, you used to own uber. i know you're glad you're not in it today
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lousy as lift looks, what's the read on what uber delivered? >> i mean, clearly if i have a choice of owning one of the two, i'm going with uber. i think from a fundamental and managerial perspective, they're doing a much better job than lyft i think there are larger concerns both in terms of pricing a lot of the pressures that they're feeling, both from labor and really just generally the return to a more normalized environment which i think most of us would agree we're not yet in that place, mostly talking about the business climate i think that's what uber ultimately will need even though we have a significant price decline, i suggested that's the one to own, i wouldn't step in and buy it. >> weiss, lyft or uber, as i said, lyft is getting a beat down today >> yeah.
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actually i know lyft management, i will disagree with joe i think they're excellent and very focused look, i think they're putting the yellow cabs out of business for all intents and purposes ultimately should be profitable. i can't own them now because profitability is still elusive you've also got uber which what is it, is it food delivery, is it taxi, what is it? if i were going to own for the theme, i would buy lyft at this level. but i don't like unprofitable companies in this environment, i don't like many profitable companies. >> you saw the promo dara, uber ceo on tomorrow morning at 8:30. first on cnbc interview with the uber ceo coming up from the cnbc stock picker flash poll, one stock to be in now according to the voters the committee gives their best ideas next
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now, to more insight from our cnbc flash survey where we pulled our contributors and money managers for the best stock ideas right now. i have is a diverse list of names. you can see some of them on the board there. qualcomm, stock is down huge netflix down 73. that's quite interesting
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jason, you bought more qualcomm, after its earnings >> i did so, qualcomm has done a great job diversifying away from the handset game and in autos now. the licensing business litigation is behind them and they're trading 11 times forward. and they had a strong print last week feed on revenue and strong guidance in this type of environment. i like qualcomm. reasonable evaluation. >> that's for sure are along with some other cyber names -- but i'll stay with palo alto i like the market share they've been able to obtain. it's been reflected in strong earnings reasonable evaluation relative to the others.
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i realize that seemed high to a lot of areas of technology it's a longer term play. >> i know we talked health care but that was one of the picks on the list, the top of the list. >> the company executes flawlessly they can drive pricing i mean, they're everywhere it's not cheap but it shouldn't be cheap. i got to buy it at some point. just happened. >> valero, joe 52-week high speaks to the energy trade right here gasoline in particular driving season i'm pretty sure this is a favorite name of our good friend, mark fisher. i think there's a lot more upside to come i heard him talking about it on the 5:00 show as well. i'd stay in the name
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(vo) verizon is going ultra! with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10x the speed at no extra cost. plus six premium entertainment subscriptions, included! like disney+, music, gaming, and more! (mom) delightful. (vo) saving you over $350 dollars a year. and for a limited time get a 5g phone on us! no trade-in required. (mom) amazing. (vo) this is the offer you just can't miss! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. joins me exclusively to talk about the fed. walk us up here because it's going to happening about an hour or so. >> i might be alone in saying
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i'm excited to hear what happens. i think the market is still trying to figure out what's the right direction and we're nearing the moment of truth. is i hope it's not too big of a rally but i would expect positivity obviously, like you talked about at the top of the show, 50 base-point hike is baked into the cake let's get data dependent late summer >> for somebody who wants as aggressive a move as you do, what's the thing that's going to upset the market the most, do you think? >> richard fisher, the other day, talked about when he was part of the federal reserve, he did not want mortgage-backed securities to be added to the balance sheet. if there's an acknowledge the
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reserve would be an active seller, i think that would upset the marker >> we talk about that being the catalyst to crack the housing market if mortgage rates riding doesn't do that. we'll watch closely for that why don't you give us a final trade. >> best conference ysk been in 30 years i'm buying this when it's over if you do it, use a tight stop on it so you don't get run over and only stay there for the afternoon or through tomorrow morning. >> so, super short term. thank you. carry on liz young, final trade. >> short term treasuries and they'll come down.
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>> okay. >> i like revenue here they've been out performing the market >> nice foreign name >> great stuff, everybody. i'll see you in overtime "the exchange" begins now. >> thank you, scott, hi, everybody. in one hour, we eget the fed's decision on interest rates what will chair powell himself say in the press conference and most importantly, what are markets positioned for those are the questions we'll try to answer this hour. might seem like worse time to get into growth stocks and tell us which head winds he esees abating. are an

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