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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 10, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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i think no matter what happens from here, it's going to have a long way to repair itself, there's going to be scares along the way. it's almost certainly not any kind of a v and nothing says the low is in. we talked about yesterday, 3800, 3900 as people looking for pote potential targets. >> that's mike santoli i'll see you right back here tomorrow "fast money" is now. right now on "fast" the nasdaq and s&p break a three-day losing streak. the dow slides for a fourth straight day we'll go inside the surge in semis, the bounce in biotech and the crumbling in big chunks of the tech market. plus disney on the clock the stock is down 30% this year. we'll ask the traders is it prime for a rebound or would they rather bet on another entertainment name later, elon musk says he thinks he can close his deal for twitter in two to three months he said he would also reverse the permanent ban on former president trump. he sounds bullish. so why is the stock not trading the same way
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i'm me alissa lee. on the desk tim seem more, karen finerman, guyadami yes, the nasdaq finished the day higher for the first time in four sessions. name after name is crumbling here's three examples from today. upstart cut in half after they cut full-year guidance carvana announcing it will lay off 2500 workers or 12% of its workforce. peloton falling to an all-time low after reporting a major loss for the quarter. the ceo saying the company is thinly capitalized netflix to uber to paypal, the list goes on and on. will the unraveling of the tech trade create a cascading effect beyond the market cap destruction that we have seen in the indices. tim seymour, what do you say >> well, we've already seen massive destruction in high multiple tech stocks i think there's a very different story around a lot of tech we can talk about semi conductors which were up 2.6%
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today and these are cash flow rich companies that i think have robust demand in chips the fact that you're seeing consumer finance companies that were not profitable trading down to this multiple or, you know, actually lack of a multiple because there is no earnings profile is not a terrible surprise we are in a place while the consumer's balance sheet is in great shape, it is something people need to be worried about. those names up there on the screens are not big surprises. if you look at the market today, actually the underpurcerformers were more brick and mortar tj maxx was down big tech and things oversold were up so i think this is a day where sentiment was better i don't think it changes overnight. but i'm not necessarily going to be assessing markets based upon those tech high flyers that already had been crushed. >> and i don't think that's what we're saying necessarily i think we're taking a look at this in the sense that there's
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an adjustment going on bank of america actually brought this up, this notion of we have huge multiple contraction. we have major re-ratings in big swaths of technology that leads to corporations examining their budgets. we're hearing about layoffs now and what impact does that ultimately have on the consumer, which is such a big part of the economy. and one individual name, an upstart like after the bell or, you know, peloton, dan, that's nothing. but collectively this could have a bigger impact. >> yeah, right listen, ifwe are on the heels of a recession here, we know that these government transfer payments have run out. we know consumer credit is high. we know the cost of borrowing has gone up dramatically in a short period of time that's the consumer right there. but the knock-on effect for enterprise spending could be huge if you think about all of these companies that are retooling we saw uber, about how they're going to be more focused on profits. they're going to be making cuts. what does that mean?
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it can be servers, it could be server chips, it could be ad spending it could be microsoft azure or amazon aws this is actually the playbook of 22 years ago in the dotcom aftermath in a way and so to me there's just a lot of knock-on effects that haven't really filtered in we've seen a lot of private tech companies be pretty aggressive because the cost of funding has gone up pretty dramatically. i think we'll start seeing that in the public markets here and to your point it's going to have an effect on consumers and on enterprise. >> big tech, their balance sheets are different than others at the top but there could be re-examination in terms of travel and ad spending we've seen that in terms of ad slowdowns for some platforms out there. i mean these are things that haven't necessarily worked through the system, so to speak. >> right i mean to that point exactly, i look at trade desk tonight and i don't know where it is right
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now. it's maybe off a lot i don't know exactly what happened during the quarter. it was a revenue miss. but i think to me that should correlate with facebook. so it's not fantastic. they have sort of traded somewhat together, so to the extent that facebook and google have underlying elements that are consistent with trade desk business, that's probably not great. but i really do put those two in a very different bucket of huge, huge cash flow, very cheap valuation, moats around their business, and it's very different than the things that we're seeing announced tonight like a roblox where the multiples are just crazy and they have come down a lot. but even down 75 or 77% today wasn't quite enough for roblox to be down it was down a little bit more after -- i don't know where it rallied to or wherever it is right now. but those i think of as a very
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different animal and so i think that there is even still more room to come out of the super high flyers that maybe they're no longer high flyers but the multiples are still big because they're not earning any money. therefore, i do think that ripple effect you talk about could absolutely happen. that's one maybe saving grace for the fed that does happen and wages come down. employment comes up, wages go down and that's helpful to the fed. >> the fed wants to slow demand down it wants to slow down this activity of the consumer, guy, so maybe they're getting exactly what they want in this implosion within the tech sector >> well, i'll say this at the risk of being added. i don't think the fed knows what they want. six months ago they wanted inflation. they were begging for it and we said be careful what you wish for because you're going to get it now they're trying to flip the other way. so leon cooperman came on
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before between text messages and phone calls he's basically saying what we've been saying for a while, they have lacked credibility and i'm with him on that for sure. what does the fed want they don't know what they want tomorrow's cpi number, i don't think they know what they want in terms of that either. below 8.3%, i think the market has a knee-jerk reaction to the upside i think that's a bear market rally. above 8.5%, i don't know what to tell you i'll say this in terms of karen's point. she's right. so many of these stocks you can make a very compelling case on valuation, but these names more than many were the beneficiary of this passive investing trend that's taken the market by storm over the last five years they just went up because the money flows for a large part the flip side of that coin is if passive becomes active, it's not active on the way up, it's active on the way down and we're on the precipice of something exactly like that. >> we've seen that already to some extent. tim, you were mentioning today on our conference call which we have at 12:30 eastern time every
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day that you were worried a little bit about the consumer. we always make the case the consumer is very strong, but they have actually been levering up a little bit more the number of credit card accounts that were opened in the first quarter hit a record according to the most recent federal reserve bank of new york survey out there so we know that they could be -- >> yes. >> -- crushed a little bit in terms of rising rates. >> and aggregate credit in terms of consumer credit card debt is possibly about to be a record after $8.3 billion was paid down during the covid dynamic, which had people unable to spend so if you're talking about aprs th at 14, 15 and going to 19, 20 and have balloon payments and obviously penalties, right now the consumer's balance sheet is in great shape corporate balance sheets are in great shape. but to think about at least where revolvers are and credit card debt and home equity lines,
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money is a lot more expensive for consumers. you have pulled forward already a lot of demand. i think it's important that we look at this and i think markets want, i think, a faster fed reaction than they're getting if you look at today, we actually had fed governor meister on the tape somewhere late morning really this did change the complexion of the market for a couple hours before markets recovered. but basically wanting to leave all her options on the table that 75 could still be in the cards. and, look, i think markets want a very aggressive fed and possibly a deep recession that hopefully is shallow excuse me, that is hopefully short, not shallow i think that's really the dynamic for markets here yes, the consumer is someone that i think we have a lot of faith in now, but be careful >> so, tim is saying that the markets want the fed to act decisively and quickly, karen. so in that vein, if cpi came in hotter than expected, do you
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think the markets would actually go higher? >> because the fed would be perceived to be on it? no i think -- i think this fed today -- tim talks about meister. twice. two different times she was out today very, very hawkish including saying we have to sell our mbs which is going to make housing more expensive getting a loan will be more expensive. so be it that that ends up putting a chill on the housing market you know, it doesn't matter. they have to address inflation so if it's hot, i think that actually will be a negative because they will have to do something more they either will have to change course and do the 75 that powell said he wouldn't do or we know that they're going to be, you know, just doing 50s longer. i think cooling is better in general because it will be -- they're working -- i don't think
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they'll pull the -- i don't think they will, you know, pull back if it starts to cool because we've got a long way to go to get to an inflation number that's comfortable a long way. >> let's get back to tech here and bring in long-term investor, rick heitzman, friend of the show rick, always great to see you. >> always great seeing you, melissa. thanks for having me on again. >> this re-rating in the high multiple growthy tech stocks, are we seeing that in the private markets too? >> we're seeing it and it's even more draconian in the private markets. as people are looking at last year's ipos as being on sale, with everything being down and even tech leaders being on sale, a lot of the money that was going into the private markets from crossover funds or public funds has now left the private markets and, therefore, multiples are down even more significantly. >> hey, rick, it's dan
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how are you, man hey, listen, you've traded through lots of cycles in both public and private markets here. looking at what's going on, though, in the public markets, are there some multiples for some of these once really hot growth areas, whether they be saas or consumer internet that you're focused on. is there a multiple of sales on some of these names that have just gotten absolutely obliterated, down 30, 40, 50, 60%, that makes sense for you to start dipping your toe in the water in the public market >> there are some that are strategic. i think everyone saw daniel atkins in spotify and him buying $50 million in shares but that's a strategic asset. audio is becoming more strategic with incredible growth in podcasting as other folks are very, very focused on video streaming disney and netflix and paramount. you'd wanting to put those two things together. it makes tremendous sense that i
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think that's on sale and could go for a very large premium as part of a transaction. the other things we've seen is some of the saas companies are kind of breaking into that well -- 2016-2017 sub nine times revenue multiple and you're seeing former darlings down 80%. i think shopify, which has an incredible long-term trend on it for more people buying things in e-commerce and although they're down compared to amazing comps during the pandemic, i can only imagine seeing more and more cardboard boxes around the streets of new york and we think that's a phenomenal long-term trending that they should benefit for forever. >> rick, in terms of growth, you know, a lot of these companies came into being at a time when money was free basically and it was growth at all costs and now we have a reversing environment. and these companies just weren't built to withstand this environment, let alone switch
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gears so quickly, because it really did change on the dime it feels like so i'm wondering when you take a look out at some of these companies that have collapsed in terms of market cap, do we see a resurgence of these companies? or for some of them is it lights out, do you think? >> i think some of it it's lights out some of it needed to change leadership so oftentimes the leadership that got you there isn't going to be the leadership that gets you to the next stage. and you're right, there's tons of cases of whiplash out there that this time last year every -- almost every technology company's three top priorities were growth, growth and growth now everyone is focused on profitability, unit economics and path to capital efficiency obviously barry mccarthy has his work cut out for him at peloton and whether he can change a growth culture to a profitability focused culture and build a great asset there in both the public and private markets, though, you're seeing the best entrepreneurs and best ceos adjust to this market
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obviously it's easier to adjust on a powerpoint than it is to operationalize it. but that's the talk of every board meeting whether you're a public or private company these days. >> rick, thanks for joining us always good to see you. >> always good seeing everybody. thank you. karen, let's talk about peloton. when you hear the ceo say thinly capitalized, it's never a good thing. you made a point they just recently did a capital raise, a pretty big one. >> thank god they did that capital raise. i think it was in october, november a few days after they said they don't need more money, they got i think about a billion two, which saved them that was brilliant, announcing defeat fine, i'm going to the capital market that was a really good thing to do maybe that was foley's finest hour, i'm not sure one of the metrics at peloton that i found most interesting was that they did have subscriber growth. but if you look at the number of rides or engagements per
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subscriber, it was down i thought a fair amount, which to me is a foreboding of more churn. as you use your bike less and less an it becomes more and more of the clothes hanger that we call it, you're going to cut off your subscription. they're planning on raising prices $5 which takes the yearly bill to a little over $500 so there was nothing to like except that, hey, we're open to capital infusions. if you've got somebody like a lulu or nike or amazon, although they have a competing product, that would sending the stock ripping higher but other than that, this was really not good at all coming up, shares of coinbase and roblox on the move. we're digging in the numbers next. speaking of earnings, disney is on deck but is there a better bet in the space get ready, we are giving the traders a would you rather, rather, rather that's right, three of them. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" after this
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welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on coinbase shares sinking after reporting
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first quarter revenues that missed analyst's estimates monthly transacting users also slipping since last quarter. kate rooney has the details. >> coinbase proving its volatility with a big dropoff there in monthly users, trading volume and revenue as well the crypto company losing $1.98 on eps net revenue down 50% from last quarter and 27% from a year ago. monthly transacting users were down 19% quarter over quarter. trading volume was down 43%. that was pretty much in line with a drop in spot volume alicia haas said we've always known that crypto is volatile and we've had a decade of managing through volatile environments 54% of users are now doing something other than just trading so that really is the bull case for coinbase the take rate also went up to
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1.3% that's pretty much the percentage that coinbase makes on transactions. i asked her about that and the idea of fee compression. she says we're not competing on price, we're competing on the experience at this time and so far not feeling pressured to lower prices the call kicking off at 5:30 eastern. melissa, back to you. >> kate, thank you kate rooney. is this an example of growth at all costs, guy >> well, not to do the dog pile on the rabbit, but i think this is the tenth largest holding in the ark etf. the one before it is unity software, which is down i think 38%. and again, it's just -- you know, why do i bring it up because it's important to bring up this stock, coinbase was at $365 stock in november. it's down 87% since then they're not bad companies. i think rick heitzmann just spoke exactly that they have never been at the levels they traded at over the
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fall and the market is now for the first time price discovery is this growth at all costs? clearly. i don't know what experience of coinbase is. clearly i haven't experienced it, probably for the better. >> yeah, to say that they're not -- it's fine to say we're not going to compete on price. but ultimately you're going to compete on price, tim, and not just experience. >> you know, think about their core verified user base of 98 million that came in ahead of expectations how obliterated a lot of these folks have been also you can't tell me that there's going to be a quick turn-around, even if you see a dramatic turn-around there's a lot of capital that's been obliterated. we've all heard the numbers on where the average dollar allocated towards crypto is and it's down about 40%. it's people that jumped in at the top, sounds a little bit like ark the most notable thing that i see from the headlines after the earnings announcement is that the company filed a mixed shelf
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securities registration. so they are at least trying to be opportunistic and get the ability to be coming back to market and again, when you file a shelf, you don't necessarily have to run, but this is the story. this is the story we're going to continue to talk about companies that are losing money cannot sustain the profile that they had we just had that conversation with rick. that's very important here and again, having to go to capital markets when capital markets are very different is what i'm seeing in the after hours here. >> yeah. let's get to another one here also feeling the pain after hours, roblox. out with earnings after the bell the stock is sliding after reporting a bigger than expected loss per share and revenue miss. steve joins us with the latest. >> roblox blaming loren gaugement from players the reported a loss per share of 27 secents and revenue $631 million versus $645 million
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expected roblox reporting last quarter 51.1 million users versus 55 million expected now, that's up 28%, but far slower growth than the 79% growth we saw a year ago the chief business officer telling me the company was able to hang onto all the players it gained during the pandemic, but those players are spending less time on the platform and that translates to less money for the company. donato said to us, covid was obviously an unfortunate circumstance but pushed a ton of people onto roblox the question is are we retaining though users we're not only retaining them but growing them we're expecting to hear more tomorrow morning on their earnings call but for now that's what we know, mel. >> thank you, steve. do not miss an exclusive interview with the ceo of roblox on "mad money" tomorrow. let's trade this one right now, though pandemic darling when there's nothing to do, people spent lots of time in the old metaverse playing games and such, dan. now there's plenty of things to
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do they're still playing but not playing as much. that's a problem. >> yeah. i think some of the metrics that they pointed to i think are pretty good news, though the stock is not down on a miss as much as you might expect. one of the things we've been talking about is the need to raise capital. we know from 20 years ago, some of those companies were able to survive because the capital they did raise, these guys have $3 billion of cash on their balance sheet. i think about a billion and a half on an enterprise value, this thing is looking pretty reasonable less than about five times sales here we know a lot of these stocks were trading 20 times sales at their heights just last year or so so we spent a lot of time and this is one i've been trying to be constructive about over the last six to nine months since we heard about the meta move when we were talking about facebook's pivot and what are some ways to play metaverses. this is one of them. i think this is a fairly reasonably priced asset right here and maybe some of the news is about as bad as it gets in the near term, especially after
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the climb this stock has had. >> does this tell you, karen, anything about meta's move into the meta or is that just so far off that it doesn't matter what goes on right now because we have no idea what facebook is going to come out with? >> yeah, i think that's right. when you look at facebook right now trading at, i don't know, 12, 13 times earnings maybe, i think of that as zero in there for meta the trade desk thing was actually more concerning to me can i just add one thing, though i think coinbase is sorta getting interesting. >> really? why? >> it's a land grab. it's a land grab if one believes that cryptocurrencies will exist, then they're in an interesting spot they're getting close now to probably, i don't know, $12 billion in market cap to capture all of those users i don't know, this would be a three-day rule 1 for sure. but i don't know, i think there might be something here. >> all right, karen is watching
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coin we are just getting started here on "fast money." here's what's coming up next disney on deck the house of mouse is gearing up for earnings but is there a better play in the space? we're dishing out a would you rather, rather, rather plus, biotech bang the group surging in today's session. but is there more room to run? the traders are breaking it down, next you're watching "fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it. ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "fast money. it's been a rough year for media and entertainment stocks
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disney, netflix, paramount and comcast have fallen 30 to 60 plus percent and sfforward pes r 11 to 22 times earnings. all these names just down in the dumps. has there ever been a better time to ray would you rather, rather, rather which means i would like you guys to choose one of those four options. guy adami, can you follow these -- can you understand what we're getting at we want you to do would you rather, rather, rather >> you know, it's unfair to start with me because you know i get confused very easily the other guys and gals can cheat off my answer but i'll play your reindeer game here in this would you rather, rather, rather i will take disney basically at this price, 108ish i think you're probably getting disney plus for free which is probably the right multiple given it's loss leader but at 18 times numbers, when is
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the time you've seen disney. it traded at sideways 2015 to 19 i don't think they have to do much to get the stock higher. >> karen, what would you say >> on the would i rather, rather, rather i would rather, and i'm talking my book here, paramount. so we look at streaming is the issue here paramount, if you look at the valuation, it trades at ten times earnings which is cheaper than netflix it's still growing it's very much up in the air whether netflix is still growing. that would probably be my next rather, but paramount to me -- i think, though, one other thing the idea of it being a takeover target is probably not on the table right now. however, they are growing the streaming business the valuation to me, which i always come back to, that's compelling so paramount >> by the way, this is the first time in "fast money" history that we are playing would you
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rather, rather, rather and we do have an animation for it which is very special, tim, to mark this special occasion. but what would your choice me off that board >> well, i'm going to -- because i think this is a new game, i'm not going to play by my own rules but i feel like you're asking me for two picks. >> no. >> i'll go with guy's disney -- all right, so let me talk about comcast but i'm not going to die on the netflix hill even though i am long that stock broadband is growing this is a cash flow machine. this is a company trading at seven times ebitda this is a company that will generate $15 billion in free cash flow in 2022. so when i think about, yes, there's an intense competitive landscape, when i think about the market we're in and companies that should be rewarded and a company that i think is able to also slug it out in the competitive forces if we need to, it's comcast it's a multiple i like. >> comcast is the parent company of cnbc, of course
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dan nathan, how about you? >> you know what, i'll follow tim up that hill on netflix here i'm not exactly dying on it yet but i'm really intrigued i know listening to karen after their results a couple of weeks ago and that move lower here, and i know she had a quick in and out, but i'll bet you she comes back to for valuation purposes because this stock has never been this cheap. i actually think the things that investors who have been in the name and road it down from $700 down to $300 or something like that are really disappointed they think they misexecuted here and that would have been over the last year and a half i see the opportunity now with the advertising business to really change this company going forward for the next phase of this streaming war here. so to me i think it looks really interesting. betting against reid hastings is probably, as guy would say, not a great investment strategy over the last 25 years. >> let's stick with disney here. the options traders belief the
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magic kingdom is prime for a comeback so let's get straight to mike khouw with the action. mike >> earnings coming up unsurprisingly we've got above average options volume traded at 1.4 times it's average daily options volume right now it is implying a move of more than 9% by the end of the week after they report the trade that caught my eye was the september 1.15 calls trading for $7.70 a contract and ultimately over 3700 changed hands today. buyers of those calls are betting that disney can finish above that 115 strike price by the $7.70 that they paid we've seen hard beaten stocks seeing people buying longer dated calls, hoping on a rebound. >> thanks for that, mike for more options action tune into the full show friday 5:30 eastern time. big day for biotech. the xbi jumping more than 5%. plus we are digging into the
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commodity complex. prices soaring this year is there any relief in ight? we're plowing in to find some answers. more on that when "fast money" returns. get your trades to go with a "fast money" podcast follow today on your favorite podcasting app 'rba rhtft ts.wee ckig aerhi thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.
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welcome back to "fast money. time for our move of the day check out the xbi jumping more than 5%. some big names leading the charge guy, amgen was your final trade yesterday. what do you make of this >> like an elephant you are in terms of that memory, melissa lee. yes, i thought it was good price action on a lousy tape that 65 level we recently bottomed out at, that's the same level we bounced from in december of 2018 i too am a bit of an elephant. i think biotech has been unjustly beat up and it's at levels that make sense if you want to play with etf,
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the xbi makes sense. i'm amgen is still too cheap. >> tim, would you get into biotech? >> i tell you, if you look at and i'll go with the ibb if you look at those top six or seven names outside of moderna, you have great balance sheets in there. the question has been where's the next growth coming from. gilead continues to play out so i think moderna is a stock that is range bound and in fact has dragged down the ibb dramatically again, a high multiple stock that i think is a heavyweight is something you have to watch. >> yeah. ibb is market cap weighted xbi has more of the smaller players. karen, in this environment xbi might not be where you want to be versus the ibb, although both are trading terribly >> yeah, they really are trading terribly ibb i think was partially up today on that -- the acquisition
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biohaven did, huge premium but i think sometimes you see an acquisition happen and then you see a little more activity somebody rings the bell and other ceos, all right, now it's time to act. so i'm surprised we haven't seen more activity given the balance sheets of the big players. that's where i would be is the ibb. >> all right coming up, musk sounding off on donald trump's twitter ban what he said he would have done differently and the timeline he laid out for the deal to get done we've got the details ahead. plus keeping up with the crops. ag prices soaring this year so we are breaking down what it means for the consumer more on that next. do not go anywhere "fast money" is back in two.
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welcome back to "fast money. check out the incredible price spikes wheat, corn, cotton all surging. only 22%, 22% of u.s. expected corn crop has been planted that's less than half the normal amount it is the slowest to a crop season since 2011. so why are we so behind?
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let's ask the chief operating officer of bam wx, a weather technology company kirk, great to have you with us. >> yes, thank you guys so much. >> why are things so bad >> yeah, that's a great question so we're essentially in what we're calling a la nina. that means a very active northerly jetstream pushing a lot of moisture to areas like north dakota, south dakota, minnesota, the northern part of the united states and frequent areas of low pressure, a lot of rainfall is what has happened since february 1st most of those areas top five wettest of all times since february 1st so consistent rain and not the ability to get into the fields. >> i take it other parts of the world are not equipped to make up for any deficits here in the united states in terms of planting >> yes, absolutely so la nina definitely means dry for a lot of other areas alternatively central brazil very dry, ukraine very dry right now. a lot of areas also impacted throughout the world when we're talking about la nina.
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so i would say definitely looking at a global scale, things could be better for sure. >> so i know that you're a weather technology company, but how should we think about it in terms of the impact on price >> yeah, great question. so essentially the longer it takes for farmers to get out into the field, especially in a lot of these major crop areas, that means it's going to take longer for the crop to grow essentially, and it's more susceptible -- la nina can also mean a july and august drought and also mean very warm conditions so we may start off kind of very wet here but in the long run that could be detrimental as we turn hotter and drier. everything is delayed. and it's a trickle-down effect for the rest of the season. >> how supply constrained do you think we'll be for various crops? which crops will we see the biggest price spikes simply because yield won't be there >> yeah, i think corn and soybeans for sure. i would be looking at wheat. i wouldn't sleep on the cotton
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market either. it's been exceptionally warm and dry across parts of oklahoma into texas to be honest, i would focus on corn and soybeans for sure but don't sleep on the wheat and cotton markets as well. >> you're a consumer too, kirk so when you see this and you see your forecast, what do you think in terms of what you're going to see in the grocery store >> yeah, absolutely. prices are going to increase unfortunately, especially with this being a global moisture issue. i can't imagine that prices are going to decrease because of this issue so it is a problem it does matter >> all right, kirk, great to get your take. thanks so much. >> awesome, thank you, guys. >> kirk hins and then there's the fertilizer problem, tim there's lack of fertilizer fertilizer is expensive so farmers aren't using as much which means yields will be more challenged, aside from weather issues. >> and don't sleep on the cotton market i think you've got a case here where as i always say the best thing for higher prices and
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commodities is a supply responsible. kirk was pointing out structurally it's impossible and weather conditions are a factor on top of the rest of the perfect storm that was global supply disruption and constraints and whatnot. i do think if you look at your basket of fertilizer companies, and that would be mosaic, ipi and cf industries, when you're looking at their realized net prices per ton, they're up somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% over a year. and it's a case where the profitability for these companies is very cyclical, but in the short run, especially if you look at the space, mosaic is down probably 25 to 30% off its recent highs i think they gave you a pretty decent guide you had five or six upgrades coming out in the market so i think after a massive run along with the underlying commodities, i think some of these names are interesting again. >> a cease-fire in the war between russia and ukraine and whatever the fed does will not solve any of these problems that are facing the farmers around the world, karen how do you think about the
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stresses the consumer will feel? it sounds like the price increases will last well into next year, if not beyond >> yeah, that's -- that is a problem. we're in sort of a vicious cycle. to tim's point, even though these things are cyclical, they're not necessarily one season cyclical. they could be cyclical for a couple of years. this obviously just adds to the inflation problem that the fed has and i think we're going to see it through to beef prices and those things are expensive, beef prices are getting expensive as well. this is bad for restaurants, bad for the consumer >> guy, what's your trade out of this >> there are two kroger's win kroger's made an all-time high it sold off since. kr is one. and deere and company, the old john deere jpmorgan upgraded the stock in
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the middle of march, $440 price target i'm willing to bet they upgrade it to buy from neutral i think this stock is cheap on valuation. i know the argument is a lot of pull forward i don't buy it yet i think deere goes higher. coming up some headlines out of elon musk's twitter deal. a timeline on when the deal could close. we have the details when "fast money" returns you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence...
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get a great deal on this limited time price with internet and voice for just $49.99 a month for 24 months with a 2-year price guarantee. call today. welcome back here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam jim is talking with the ceo of upstart. catch the full exclusive interview at the top of the hour on "mad money. that's must-watch. don't forget you can have cramer delivered right to your inbox with the cnbc investing club sign up at cnbc.com/join the club or using the qr code on your screen. more headlines out of elon musk's twitter deal. musk saying he would reverse the twitter ban on former president donald trump, and that it was not correct to ban him in the first place. musk also saying that best case scenario, a deal for the social stock could be done in two to three months the stock doesn't really agree with elon musk, karen. >> no, it doesn't.
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i mean as far as risk spreads go this is really, really wide which i find interesting considering he is the richest man in the world but basically twitter right now is just a tesla play tesla really falls out of bed then this spread will get wider. he theoretically could close it in that short amount of time if he doesn't get a review. i just saw apollo looking to lead a billion dollar round of financing, so it should be doable it really trades like he's kind of a joker, but i think the deal will go through but i'm not long it because you don't know the downside does he then get out of his stock? that would be really bad >> it's interesting that elon musk is going out there, dan, with all these things that he would do if he were ceo as if the deal is going to close, including reversing that ban on donald trump, which he says jack dorsey does in fact agree with him on >> yeah. i mean jack seemed obviously very conflicted about all of
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this they waited until people died in a violent insurrection in our capitol to ban him he had broken their terms of service on numerous occasions over the prior five years. so obviously jack didn't want to do it. i just don't get the whole, you know, free speech sort of thing. when you think about it, this is a platform that is not even allowed in china. that musk has cozied up to very, very closely as relates to his factories for tesla so he seems a bit conflicted to me as far as his timetable about getting the deal closed, i think one of the things we can all agree on about elon musk, he's not that good with timetables. so the longer this thing goes and the more risk that tesla stock goes to the downside to karen's point, this thing is not likely to happen 54.20 is not going to make it, people i don't know why anybody would agree he should pay seven times sales for this company with some
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much better comps like snap is trading below that the longer that 54.20 bid sits down there and the lower it goes, i think the more interesting a paris trade looks. we also know what the upside is but the likelihood of this being ratcheted down is likely to happen. >> we've got no more daylight left in this show but i have to push back a little bit, dan. is that fair to say he's cozying up to china for tesla and then that's sort of contradictory we've got a lot of u.s. companies that are big presences in china. >> apple does it. >> they say that they believe in free speech. and human rights and all these different things. >> but he's going out of his way to buy this asset, mel, because he's using the case of free speech he said he doesn't care about the economics of it. so he's a free speech warrior. listen, i just think there's a lot of conflicts there. >> all right this is a debate for another show clearly up next, we've got your
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welcome back to "fast money. check out some of these after hours movers
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ea is up by 2.6% wynn resorts is flat and unity software is a big one, it is down by 26.5%. reminder that cramer will speak with the ceo of unity tonight on "mad money" so you will not want to miss that one time for the final trade here. let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> back from my would you rather, rather, rather comcast. it's ten times free cash flow. interesting. >> karen finerman. >> yeah, i'm looking for places to hide in this market cvs is one of them retail pharmacy benefits and health care. so 11 times earnings, 2.25 dividend rally. >> dan nathan. >> mel, you seem mad >> i'm not. >> roblox here roblox looks interesting it fell off a cliff into this print and i don't think the quarter was that bad we don't know the guidance so maybe we see a bounce. >> i'm never mad kind of.
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guy. >> i'm mad because the rangers didn't show up last night, mel. >> i know. >> as you know, we talked about it earlier it's crazy a 34% sell-off is enough. >> see you bac my in addition mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there will is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad "mad money" starts now. >> welcome to "mad money." i'm trying to make you some money. my job is not to entertain you but teach you. call me. or you can tweet me. look, if you want to die by the sword, you have to live by

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