tv The Exchange CNBC May 23, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
>> the strong rebound a we've seen so far this morning 1.5% higher for the s&p. the nasdaq trailing up 1.1% today. so, it is still a pretty nice rebound. i mentioned j.p. morgan. this is in the zone after bullish comments from j.p. morgan's investor day. saying it may hit its return they also boosted their 2022 net interest income. j.p. morgan shares are up and city around 53 last week after the sell issing pressure, we're still togging about 2009 levels on the split
adjusted base. still some green across the board for all the major banks. energy the other big winner of the day. eog receiving gains of 4 to 6% the spider etf up. and the big cap tech getting a boost. and performance from apple this was a big part of the reverse. managing to eke out gains. up to around 142 still adown around 10% on the month. and on the flip side, a auto debt is the worst performer. gut a down graded deutsche ahead of their earnings. shares down about 5% they're on pace for the lowest close since march of 2020. investors are continuing to grappleal with the question of whether or not the u.s. is headed to a recession as the fed continues tightening
the head of wall street's major banks do seem more bullish >> ib find it hard to see the u.s. not entering a recession in 2023 just because of labor market, the strength of balance sheets and we're certainly seeing it. ib don't esee it happening until 2023 at the earliest >> the fear is going up but reality is no one's saying there will be a resession in 2023 yet. we think the economy will slow down but the fed has a tough jaw. >> strong economy, strong storm clouds they're storm clouds they may dissipate if it was a hurricane, i would tell you that. >> storm clouds. what does larry lindsey say? former director of the national economic counsel under george w. bush you've had a strong and somewhat
out of consensuses what do you mean boy that? >> well, first of all, i point out that the first quarter, to everyone's surprise, is negative as i sort of thought the recession would start the current quarter. but it's probably easier to get into positive territory. i believe the first half of the year,b for sure, is going to have to negative number in front of it. >> is the fed's fault? what you basically think is happening is real incomes are being eroded and to quote from capital economics, they say the real risk is not that a recession is required but the rise in inflation itself will cause an inflation. what's the fed supposed to do at this point >> ib think that's exactly right. since the beginning of 2021
american households have fallen on average 3%. in terms of real wages are down 3% it's very hard to get positive spending number when real wages are falling. one other observation, if i may, is it's a terrific bank. so, one should ask why they've moved 60% into asset management. that means that the only e40% are to things like see an island i think you may know where the weaknesses is with eefen though the bank is doing quite well but it's ironic. did j.p. morgan and other banks that have followed a similar
strategy, do nay need to reverse course again i'm going to leave other banks up to that part of the rise particularly has been in regards to kridt cards. which is not exactly a sign of strengths. it's a sign of households needing to make ends meet. so with i'm not sure the growth situation -- we had a negative set of reports just last week. particularly and i would also point to those behemoths, walmart, in particular but also they have dreadful last week that's not a sign that rallied in the economy it's a sign we have weakness >> and what do you mean that the fed will have to start
tightening before it ought to? >> it's a matter of how fragile one thinks things are. the one market it investments that would stop the fed in its tracks is if things begin to happen where you have things like gap down, triple b minus firm and to really access the bond market or even the credit. but they'll see it directly in bear markets first that is a sure sign the fed they have gone too far. i think those credit spaces are a little on the fragile side already, facing higher rates and what may be ea repeat economy, >> we spoke recently about the wisdom of tax hikes, which have been floated by larry summers
and others what to you think the best fifgal policy would be for the economy and the fed that you are describing right now >> well, larry and ib have been friends for a long time and we didn't eefen tell you how many decades. but we can disagree without being disagreeable but on tax hyg hikes, i must sa we're in disagreement. he is for tax hikes and demands. but if you also do so in a way that cuts aggregate supply, all you get is a cutback in spending without must dam age on the inflation side i disagree with that as the right approach >> let me ask you if i can before you go, withb about the recent overnight development ises in china. what's the significance of the
president's comments about the defending of taiwan and the egn economic block that would with rival china's influence? >> we're all for any efforts to counterchina's influence in the region president's remarks were perhaps more candid than the administration wanted. and some folks in washington reeled him back some of the president's comments f but it's been constructed ambiguity and been our policy for a long time. implying we will come to taiwan's defense without actually saying so and probably on the calculation side of the administration, that the recent chinese comments meant we had to be -- certainly the president believes that.
i think the administration may be ea little bit more cautious >> are there big takeaways for investors or u.s. companies? >> i think the take away -- anyone who is dependent on china or a supply chain should hurry up and find a substitute supply chain. there will be trouble in the intermediate term. and this investment was already happening. and find alternatives to china for supplies >> thank you and we'll have more on this later on but appreciate your early thoughts this hour >> my pleasure thanks for having me >> larry lindsey from the lindsey group. meanwhile, stocks are rallying across the board as they try to recover from a multiweek slide.
but my next guest says this reset was needed and much of the selling has calmed down what he called manias and kpeszs let's welcome in chief investor of the group >> i think that the shiny objects is what weef been calling it for quite some time the things that bought because they're popular. they obviously have great returns in 2020 and 2021 you can debate i'd argue it's a a great series of investments that got over priced the stuff that's gotten slaughtered isn't stuff that has a defineableable value and those things continue toesh pand they got hit hard. >> so so, are we now at a pointo feel about the broad s&p >> ib think when an intex is so
weighted with you're relying, as half weighted investor on more multiple expansions, i can't come up with any reason to see why the s&p will go from 19 times to 23 times. maybe you get 8, 9 or 10% earnings growth. but already it's offsetting that i think intex investors for some time are going to wait for pe's togo higher. we think you need to have cash flow growth. >> i'm right here. you have names like simon property groups and jp morgan. i was just speeging with larry lindsey about the prospect for loan growth in the years to come especially if we have any signs of credit stress and as someone who believes we're at risk of a
japanification theme, why do you like the financials? >> ib don't. i like j.p. morgan y like j.p. morgan because since 2009, there has been some reason to dislike financials through the entire period and they have lapsed their competitors whether it's a period of loan growth down and they're see issing better deposits and r or deposits are down. they're so diversified as a leader their the best in all of these businesses and we've seen j.p. morgan out perform. >> do you think it's the only fina financial people should own right now? >> i heard joe in the last seg isment say something similar woe like black stone and apollo,
who were more alternative asset managers when people talk about financial, they're usually talking about the yield curve, big banks. >> final question. do you have to have an answer for the recession question as you're looking through these businesses, especially one like a simon property or a wal green's? >> if you to, i don't want to listen to you because you're going to be wrong. anyone who says they know when the recession is coming, it's totally in timable they don't know when it's going to start, whether it's going to end, with what the magnitude is going to be and how much is priced in the market i think that is not a great question to be making timing decisions off of if ewe ebeliev there was going to be a broad and massive recession, that's a different story.
i expect there will be a recession and further out than people think >> final question. do you think free ecash flow is what investors should look for >> it's the second most important. first is how shareholder aligns they are you need a free cash flow yield to give back to investors and from there with, a cultural willingness. those companies are doing just fine in themarket environment. >> who are the guys with, who's on third you know what i'm togging about? >> oh, yeah. we sort of have that kind of thing going. >> a littlea bit of that thank you. ♪
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is not approp reableable it will dislocate the entire region and similar to what happened in ukraine. so wit so, it's a burden. >> they say the u.s.'ses one cha policy still remains and said the u.s. would intensify economic negotiations with taiwan in the coming days after it was absent from a 13-member economic block the u.s. assembled to create new standards for environmental, pact and tests the indo-pacific economic framework is framed to for china. >> they're only at the beginning
rather than actually tabling something let alone agreeing on it at this point in time, no company is going to make a decision based on the launch of this negotiation >> as appleal is among those looking to move production outside china and the bide administration hopes there are many more companies lying that to come. >> would you say we've seen a major effort to walk back or clarify the comments or not? and should we expect sfone? >> it's unclear how strategic this was whether they wanted him to make the commitment on the record while saying in writing the policy has not changed the fourth time they've had to clarify the president's comments regards to ti1 many worried that the russian invasion of ukraine has emboldened any territorial
ambitions that president xi may have >> now, while the white house is walking the president's statement back, my next guest says this was not gaf. it was intentional and meant to sent send a signal to beijing and others joining us is senior policy analyst. why don't you think it was a gaf, so to speak >> i think the president was extremely clear that he was expressing what he believes the u.s. commitment to taiwan is and i want to be clear here. he was very clear also that the one china policy has a not changed. so, he made that statement himself. so, walking it back by reiterating the statement, doesn't do what the president was intending to do, which is signal to taipei and the rest of the world that u.s. commitments need things. and i think there's been some question about the strength and veracity of u.s. commitments
after isis and fighting against the the taliban and how that wound down but biden was clear the commitment to taiwan withb at le least, is sack row sirngts. and assumptions that china's military capabilities wouldn't out pace taiwan w, that there would be a dialogue to resolve this peacefully. rational leadership in beijing to make rash decisions all the things the president seems to be signaling he doesn't believe exists anymore therefore, clarity may be ethe best approach. >> if that was his intention withb this is a major, historic shift by the u.s., isn't it? >> i think to the point that was made earlier, this has been known that this commitment is out there.
but again, has not been this explicitly stated. i think this is a shift in terms of how the president is thinking about this china heard it, taipei heard it, the rest of the world heard it but i think the president did what he intended to do with the statement. >> i have asked our guest a moment ago about the significance for companies of the u.s. relations with china in light of biden's statements and heicides said those who have it should find a substitute supply chain. you do see apple exploring alternatives what do you think u.s. companies should do when it come tos reliance on chinese goods? >> you need to have adjusted case because it's clear where this is headed the statement that the president made about the indo-pacific economic framework
if you look at supply chain, with it's clear that the president is resilience and security over efficiency and the president and administration is uncomfortable. not just for covid and other climate issues but obviously for political reasons as well. i think it's good advice to have it just in case. i think companies that are not thinking about adjusting pace are whistling past the grave yard >> from just in time to just in case that's a big shift in recent years. thanks for your time and thoughts today coming up,
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♪ what about my car? weathertech. dou was up at 706 for the high nasdaq is up less than 1%. ross stores is rebounding after a three-day losing streak and the deep sell is off they're on pace for the biggest jump through 2020. it's up more than 10%. still down 13% on the week and the etf on pace for the fifth positive day in the last seven and the move is led by
cleveland-cliffs, which got a jump after being elevated to the fortune 500 company. the utility stocks getting a bid with almost every name in the sector moving higher yes, sempra up and ea up after seeking a boi buyer or merger product. let's get to tyler matheson for our news update. u.s.announces.
challenger >> thank you very much up next, buy buy has ant reported in the last five years. will they break the streak and on the top and bottom lines every debut. and tomorrow is to be ea wild trading center in options. we have the action,b the story and the trade on those days coming up xt ne bonnie boon i'm calling you out. everybody be cool, alright? with ringcentral we can pull bonnie up on phone, message, or video, all in the same app. oh... hey bonnie, i didn't see you there. ♪ ringcentral ♪
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welcome back "the exchange "first withb best buy is down 14% in the past week the comps expected to fall nearly 10% from last year. and options are pricing a 13% move in the stock. courtney reagan is is here with the story and head of technical analysis at oppenheimer. kick things off. 10% drop in comp in some ways the bar is pretty low. >> exactly i think perception is also helpful.
last year, they put up coms more than 30% and even without withb it would be tough to see a positive comp. we have all of the macro economic pressures that best buy is is of course is going to face we know they import an awful lot from china with all our tis cushions around the tariffs. sob, expectations are very low this show as deceleration and traffic in march remember, we had other stimulus payments lacking and it's kind of interesting that there seems to be a drive expec ex expeckitations are pretty low. they're reiterating their buy rating ahead of results. they basically think things are already priced in, at least in the short term this is going to be the weakest
quarter as we move through one push is saying we're looking for best buy to either put up the low end of the guidance or market downs further from here and remember, target and walmart calling out weakness in things like ge and appliances for target and walmart talking about lower spend in the discretionary category >> you just changed my mind because i just can't believe 37% comps. which was just the fourth quarter of 2020 -- no, 2021? >> yes exactly. 2021 and so withb remember with, you had the stimulus payments that kicked in. that was big for many of the retailers. and many of us were outfitting our homes with what we needed to work from home and they had a pretty monster quarter i see they have not missed the earnings target in five years.
he's been ceo since june of 2020 she was cfo before then. she's good and precise when it comes to the numbers that will be interesting to see how she it discusses >> and focus on profit margins are going to be all the focus as well best buy, you're not a buyer here. >> not a buyer here. it's been trading poorly since black friday of last year, which notably marked key cyclicals it's still trading bad how much is priced in? expectations are pretty low. support level fell through february low so, there hasn't been any stabilization in the price just yet. you started on an interday basis. you saw $70 was a support level friday
with over sold conditions you are set up for a pot sticker i think this could still sell the balanced territory with the gap around $80 >> that is a fascinating point as well about black friday the sniffer kns -- significance of that. and zoom up 558 there in october of 2020. they have not missed on a top or bottom line at least yet is it tonight or tomorrow? anyway withb this could be the time >> zoom reports after the bell today. there's been a reopening and going to see people in urs
and expansion for customers of more than ten. and large customers. this is a measure of the growth or it crease of spending of existing can customers last quarter was 149%. and it's been above 130% over all the 12 quarters. but a lot has changed. you've had vaccines, boosters. and as a society, withb meet people more and we're not toing the same meetings and webinars as we once tid another big metric is the percent hit of revb new from enterprise customers back in q4 of 2020. that's a quarter ending in march 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic that was at 75%. the next year, after the vaccines were released, it fell down 34% and went back up to 50%. the question is right now what persentsage of customers are enterprise customers they're higher margin and
generate more for a company like zoom >> is the stock a buy yet? is >> i'm not doing anyone any good telling you to sell zoom after the stock just lost 5% of its value since the first quarter of 20 twub. whether or not it's too late to sell the stock, our work indicates it's not there yet as a buy. it hasn't reversed to the upside yet. if you are positive. here's what you got to watch for. let the stock at least rally back it hasn't been above there since august of last year. get above a 50-day average, you're togging about incremental positives and we're not there yet. >> there's the playbook for people feeling itchy and finally to the auto parts names. autozone down 15 to 25% this year even though we learned the average age of vehicles on the
road hit a regered high of more than 12 yours. hi, phil >> when advanced auto parts reports after the bell and we hear from autozone tomorrow morning, three things will be key questions a as they're listening to the reports first of all, how much are sales potentially low slowing down doesn't mean they're reversing but maybe not growing as quickly as they were in the pan demming last year. warm weather in parts of the country with milder weather. and then you have a drag from higher gas prices. there are some people decided they're nottriving as much and are they spending as much making sure the vaeks are ready to drive? again, hear from advanced auto parts after the bell and we hear from auto zone tomorrow morning. back to you. >> thank you very much looks like ought so zone is the relatively more profitable of
the two. >> i like auto zone as well. the stock has gotten hit of late dropped below the 200-day average for the first time i think you got to go back to 2020 relative to the marketb, it held firm coming off a new relative high held to the point levels verses the market that indicates the weakness was more of market specific. and broad based selling rather than the stocks. so, the stock hasn't seen head winds through the summer months. but i like that relative strength in terms of support it's 1750. but on the relative basis -- >> all right always packing in to the most salient points woe look forward to hearing from you two. so much scrutiny on the auto sector right now
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high that the fed is counting on to curb inflation. chair powell is hoping they'll go through depressing stock prices but may prove harder to achieve than they think. robert whether when they go up, you spend more, when they go up, you spend less studies show every there gain -- lost reduced spending.
and they hope it will curb inflation and spending problem is they have a much bigger health code and they added 40 trillion to their wealth during the pandemic they've lost 5 trillion in the market this year and have is an extra $35 trillion to stop the spending and are these stronger balance sheets in which case the fed has to be more aggressive. americans have gained over $18 trillion in wealth and higher real estate values as you know e, home prices are still rising, which makes this more likely we'll need more wealth destruction to get any effect from the reverse wealth effect that powell is looking for. >> absolutely. stock ownership more concentrated and top 10% not going to effect inflation. for
there are so many more young investors coming in and participating in the financial marketplaces today, and that's really due to advancements in technology. there's a proliferation of innovative technology solutions to be able to interact and invest in the financial markets. younger investors today are engaging in social media in ways that we've never seen in the past. they're in forums, actively engaging with their peers on certain topics and certain investment ideas. 75% of them believe that their investment decisions can influence climate change, and 90% of them want sustainable investing options in their 401(k). they believe that they can really impact with their investment dollars more so than prior generations. i'm naeema huq abrar, and we are morgan stanley.
welcome back share shares of vista outdoor are up in may. in may and they record profit margins while target and walmart have taken hits on theirs joining me to discuss is chris metz he is live down at the nyse at the company's investor day chris, thanks for taking the time welcome. >> kelly, it's good to be here and certainly nice to be at the new york stock exchange live rather than virtually. >> absolutely. amen to that tell me profit margins just off the top of your head are you guys still at the acceleration in profitability because of these pandemic trends or can you describe what's there being relative to others >> we guide 15% to 20% ebitda margins and long term and this year we've guided to 20 -- low
20s, ebitda margins and certainly exceeding the high end of our range, but there's no question that we're being benefited by the diversity of categories we're in. so we've got some businesses that are selling at lower price points that aren't faring as well and we have businesses that are selling at different various higher price points that are tan taft fantastic to deliver the results that we're seeing. >> you guys are exposed to so many different parts of the outdoor and recreation space and i'm sure you also face supply chain disruptions and this is a popular demand source and you have labor, as well to conten with, why are you not seeing a squeeze? >> we made a strategic threat and leaning into bringing in more inventory thinking that our bets in a inventory and some of
the new products, innovation that we developed would continue to pay off and is paying dividends for us right now taking many of the acquisitions we cite. forsite and the pga championship that happened this past weekend, the majority of golferses are using our products and we have a number of other categories that we leaned into, as well. although we see the same squeezes other companies are seeing we benefit from the long term bet on strategic inventory. if that happened, why split the company? >> it's a good question. we feel despite the value that we've created and listen, we've been rewarded and our stock went from a low of $5 to the $38 it's at today, but over the same period of time, our multiple has compressed from ten times ebitda to the four times it is today. so we just felt like although
we're generating great profits through terrific execution by our talented management team, we just felt like splitting the company up into very distinct asset classes would bring in a whole different universe of potential investors as well as potential companies that wanted to be a part of one side or the other. >> do you worry that your company could face a pandemic and a post-pandemic cliff once the inventory gets right sized if there's a fall in demand delayed by a year or two listen, it's a question everybody asks, and we study very, very hard participation rates and every category that we are serving. all of the categories are up in term was participation and showing no signs of slowing. although some people think it will be an upward v and i don't see that at all and our forecast proves this out. we're continuing to see a more normal growth rate, but at an
elevated rate because participations are high, people want to continue to get outdoors and rec yat ancreate and the fit things they'll give up is expensive vacations and higher priced goods products and 80% of the products are consumable and easy to use and fund to use. >> we did triax throwing over the winter for the first time. i enjoyed it and i was good at it, to be honest it was a surprise. chris, thanks for joining us we'll let you get back to it chris metz is the ceo of vista outdoor. airbnb is making changes in china and we'll bring you details with the shares fractionally higher right after this break ♪ ♪
beard ra >> hi, kelly airbnb has decided to shut its domestic china business. i am told the company is planning to tell all of its chinese employees in the country as early as tuesday morning in beijing. that will be later this afternoon. all listings in mainland china will be taken off the platform this summer though airbnb will maintain an office in beijing. sources tell me the china business was costly and complex to operate and the pandemic worsened those issues and heightened that impact tough competition likely a factor, local rivals operate within super apps so their cost of acquisition is lower and you can see that trickle through the take rate of airbnb. i am told by those sources will refocus efforts in china into outbound that outbound travel opportunity, specifically within the asia pac region. china has accounted for 1% of revenue of airbnb for the last few years, and i am told that
overlap between airbnb's outbound and domestic businesses were outbound. twitter, google, facebook, uber, many other american companies have been humbled by china and the unlevel playing field and there have been some successes like tesla and it seems like airbnb is falling into the other camp that will be exiting the china business airbnb did make a play in the country and they had in-country branding and they put airbnb co-founder it was not enough and the bottom line is that it was costly and complex and they're calling it in m . >> big intentions, perhaps and 1% and the shares are shrugging it off, deirdre and this is a potent week for this news to come out and i don't know if that would have forestall them
and the u.s., we had president biden on taiwan and now this it's a great point, i remember on the morning of their ipo. i asked cia brian chesky what it would take for them to leave china whether it would be the political or social issues at the time they were committed and i think what it comes down to, kelly, here in this case is the business and i'll keep digging into it and bring you more as i get it. >> deirdre bossa reporting on airbnb there that does it for us today. by the way, speaking of big tech names and one portfolio manager will tell us his big undervalued tech name and to have 50% up from here. "power lunch" begins right now ♪ ♪ thank you, kelly welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i hope you had a nice weekend. i'm tyler matheson, and we have, yes, a rally on wall street and here's what's ahead on this busy hour is amazon the most undervalued mega-cap out there and a wall a