tv Squawk on the Street CNBC May 24, 2022 9:00am-11:00am EDT
points the futures for the nasdaq off by close to 200. that's been the real question all of the noise that came around snap, trying to figure out how that plays into the broader economy for social media stocks too that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is coming up next. we'll see you tomorrow, andrew >> see you ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike san toli cramer has the morning off snap last night, abercrombie, and best buy today, we will hear from powell later on this afternoon. our road map begins with the return of sell-off mode. >> plus, snap struggles, sending the shares sharply lower
the company warning the economy, quote, deteriorated further and faster than anticipated. we got some retail headwinds this morning best buy lowers its outlook as macro conditions -- heard that before -- have worsened. we'll start with the market volatility we're going to give some, not all, and the guidance cuts we mentioned, mike, are being somewhat offset by the positive comments by zoom, honeywell and others as well. >> and just the fact that every single company disappointing guiding down has already been punished we've traveled a certain distance along this path of downgrading what growth is going to look like the recession talk, the idea that we're kind of shifting away from goods to services and, you know, the unknown story of the digital ad piece, interested to see how meta trades off of this. gapping lower. but maybe it gathers itself and people think it's more of a snap
issue than a broad slowdown. but you have this undisapprovable idea that maybe there's a recession in the future and the fed is going to overtighten and the rest of it and that's not going to be disputable in any persuasive way, we're going to have to deal with this along the way. this has not been too far from us, we're shadowed by the year 2000 nasdaq meltdown that lasted 2 1/2 years and you went in waves. first it was a valuation story and then the fundamentals fell away and the stocks chased the valuation compression and the earnings and it became this -- well, tech is tightening its belt and tech is -- other tech revenues is spending by one company. and i'm not saying we're there but that's why i think you have the hair trigger >> right as you can see right there, snap is going to open sharply, lower, david. it's interesting they did give us a print on april 21st and at the time they
said that their commentary was conservative but now macro has deteriorated further and faster than expected others point out, you know, revenue less than $6 billion this year. it's not the bellwether that you would associate with, say, a jp morgan >> it's true there are a lot of different cross currents to your point, carl yesterday you heard from jamie dimon who was seen as being positive there you see jp morgan talking about snap as well in terms of what they're seeing. as you said, it was only a month ago and that is taken people perhaps by some surprise that said, when you look back at the cfo's comments from the april 21st earnings call, he did say forward-looking visibility is more different than at any point in recent memory and said there was concern that the environment ahead could be more challenging leading to campaign
pa pauses or campaign reductions. blaming these macro conditions mike, i come back to you on this idea as to how much this is going to impact shares of -- there they are of meta and alphabet, twitter which has its own special situation to say the least, and pinterest the market does seem to be taking it more broadly and perhaps should it's not like we didn't see walmart and target not come in where we expected. there are questions, will they pause advertising in some sort of meaningful way. marriott saying some things to andrew you know, i don't know, mike, how to read it at this point but i think the first reaction is going to simply be to sell. there's plenty of people who piled into snap after that earning -- after the earnings on april 21st in part because they thought it was cheap there given the growth rate of the company the stock had fallen from 40 to
23 already >> sure, and there's no doubt that initially it's going to be a dampening effect on anybody dependent on the digital ad pipeline trade desk, that's the play on digital ad platform essentially. that's going to be down 10% this morning. so i'm not saying that that's irrational or that's not something that maybe we're going to have to deal with for a while. it's more about where it settles out. look at the lows for meta over this period. you know, it's not at the open going to challenge those lows. the 52-week low in meta is, you know -- what is it, in the 170s or something it's clearly not necessarily going to be the place it's going to go the way of snap. and i do think there's another piece of this which is, have we ever been sure that snap was a good business? necessarily. in the moment. maybe some day and it's a great product and it had an audience that everybody wanted and now tiktok has a lot
of but 7 billion in losses over five years the share count is up by a third in five years because they hand out the equity to employees. so i think there's some exacerbating issues with snap that's a little more than, oh, no, the digital ad pie is not growing as fast as we thought. >> morgan stanley had a chart yesterday of companies where symptom-based comp is under water. snap is on the list. i think about 9%, but nowhere near the likes of stitch fix, peloton or lyft. >> it's an overhang. it echoes the 2000 to 2002 story. back then it was about, we're going to reprice option strikes lower and all that kind of stuff. >> i think that's an interesting point, guys. and i've been hearing about other companies. you think of netflix, for example, that has seen such an incredible fall in its stock many employees there are well compensated with cash but expect
their stock compensation would grow dramatically. that has been the exact opposite for shares of netflix and it does lead to people looking for other jobs which i've been hearing about as well. when you're watching what you expected was your nest egg down as much as 60, 65% or more in a year, carl, it can motivate you to look elsewhere, perhaps, for something that may not have as large a stock component when it comes through overall compensation. >> yeah, goldman had a piece yesterday talking about large consumer companies that reference the labor market in the last couple of months. they counted 60 overall. a third of them noted better labor supply better labor availability and so goldman says they think wage growth could go from 5.5 to 4.5. as for the broader market, a lot of discussion today about the tone in davos.
ray dalio talking about how the fed and individuals just about everybody is a seller of something. take a listen. >> federal reserve is going to sell individuals are selling. foreigners are selling and the u.s. government is sells because it has to fund its deficit. there's going to be a supply demand problem that means that it produces a squeeze. >> so big macro thoughts from dalio. >> focused on the big structural flows and what the fed is doing and whether, in fact, you're going to have the offsets. is the fed shrinking its balance sheet really selling is the fact that the u.s. deficit has been shrinking and reducing net issues of treasuries not an issue here the very good articulation of the macro stance, that's been in
place. the point about individual selling is,if you look at how people are positioned in equities, everybody has cut back toward below normal exposures probably hedge funds, except for households households have a high equity exposure they hate bonds more than they're scared of stocks until very recently, it's been pretty severe. is that another shoe to drop that's the question. i think goldman has been asked and other firms have been asking that but you know what, market being down 20% takes care of that. it takes care of the equity exposure over time so we'll see >> david, you've spent a good amount of time talking about positioning at least in hedge funds. i must say, insider buying, which we have ignored in the past at our own peril, continues to add to the list avis, you have buying on the insiders exceeding selling
that's got to be something to watch. >> that's a positive sign, carl. you know, it is -- when i speak to asset managers, many of them are just frankly confused more so than i think they've been in a long time. given so many of the cross currents even in the conversation we had for the last ten minutes, how things play out from here, this is a somewhat different environment. yesterday jamie dimon pointing to it a bit in terms of a strong economy and the consumer in good shape but talking about big storm clouds as well but they may dissipate. we say it over and over again. but it is seemly unpredictable time right now with inflation so high, the fed raising rates, and yet, mike, again and i said this to you yesterday, everybody wants to talk about a recession. i just -- every conversation now ends with, are we in a recession? which i still am finding a little different to imagine things have changed that quickly. but perhaps they have. if we do enter a recession, with
high inflation, it's not clear where the fed is going to be able to do in terms of its flexibility. >> that's the issue. it's not so much that, oh, you know, we have this slowdown. it's later in the cycle. the fed is tightening. we know how this goes. it's the perception that there's not really an easy exit from that situation if in fact inflation remains high and you can't look to the market and say, you know, the market is sniffing it out. the market is going to sniff it out if inflation goes down because we have no confidence in that at this point because we've been proven wrong about transitory inflation and all the rest i think that makes a lot of sense. also, it's been manifesting itself in a pretty dramatic way price-wise because of where we started in valuations and because of where we started where the excesses had kind of built up that process under way of just the standard, okay, you can't pay as much for every dollar of earnings when the fed is doing
this and rates are up combines with, we might be kind of using up this expansion more quickly than we thought. >> right. >> and i don't think the evidence is there. if you look at the concrete leading indicators of recession, they're not in place yet it's the market kind of always overanticipating and expecting that you're going to actually feel it before it's in front of you. >> that was jp morgan's point yesterday, using financial indicators is way ahead of the macro economic indicators which they say is often a false positive. >> it happens along the way. it happened in 2018 and arguably happened in '98 or 2011, right you thought you were on a knife's edge what's interesting this time, nominal growth because of inflation is not going to be negative corporate top line doesn't suffer that much and also the final piece is, the s&p 500 is mostly about selling stuff as opposed to services. and that's in the crosshairs right now.
>> just the way the s&p overachieved coming out of the bottom, it's a head wind now. >> take a look at futures here we'll get to some of the other names. it's going to be a busy week for retail as you know ralph lauren, chewy, and, of course, omzo "squawk on the street" is straight ahead esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.
open great to see both of you guys. your point late last week was that foreign guidance is working in terms of the tightening of conditions in the markets baking that in well ahead of what fed funds itself has to do >> yes, that's right the fed has talked a very tough game and i think maybe they hope that the market would do their work for them. they wouldn't have to raise rates so quickly and so often. but i think the market has gotten a little ahead of them themselves and people are worried about them raising the funds. if they would pursue on that fact, there would be a recession late this year or in '23. >> what parts of the market do you think have overcorrected into the market side >> well, i think there's been a long overcorrection, but i think there are two parts of the market, price earnings ratios for the whole market has come
down maybe four or five turns. but those specific sectors that did so well during the growth phase, small tech, small biotech, small tech with no earnings, the spacs are collapsing not because of rates going up, but simply because people are looking at the fundamentals and saying these companies don't have the fundamentals we thought. those are the sectors that have gotten pounded i don't think they're coming back i think it's all the rest of the market that's got value price and that's what we're looking to define the most attractive places >> john, how should we think about the earnings outlook we were talking about how valuations have certainly come back toward the neutral zone but that depends on earnings coming through in the second half and, obviously, we're getting some of these consumer companies down scaling what they expect. where do you think we're going to land there? >> i think we'll probably land a lot better than what people
think by just -- in this last quarter, you know, for q-1, people don't talk about q-1 and earnings in technology were up 10%, as i recall, on back of revenue growth of about 12%. and that's with the vast majority of companies having reported and across other sectors, my recollection is off the top of my head that nine sectors are reporting positive earnings and all sectors -- some, mind you, very little in communication services, reporting a positive revenue growth so i think just like you said a minute ago, i think we got to look at revenue growth it's a good forward indicator and where we are right now -- whatever the fed is -- the start of a fed funds hike cycle, people get out of line with projecting negative things whether you go back to 2009, which is a recovery period
parallel to this, or whether you go back to 1994 and things work out. >> yeah, i mean, there's no doubt things worked out. i do think, though, that, you know, maybe the market is telling us that it has to get to cheap as opposed to fair if you look back at where we bottomed when you had the 2018 sell-off in early 2016, you did seem to build in a little more of a valuation cushion do you think that we might overshoot in that direction? >> yeah, i think we likely will. although, the forward handle on the s&p as of last friday was 16 and change and i think it was headed towards 15 at one point. we've got to consider that the forward valuation has come down not just on the s&p, but if you look at the mid caps, the s&p 400, the s&p 600, which is a higher quality, and even the russell 2000, the multiplies have been coming down to levels
that are going to be regarded as very attractive, we have to think. >> in terms of global growth, i wonder what you think of the risk of defaults in emerging market debt, things that can happen with the arket's legs a little bit wobbly, not recessionary, but definitely weaker than before. >> what's interesting about this cycle is, one, we're entering this fearful period at a time where the u.s. economy is very well balanced. we don't really have any sectors that are worrying unlike other parts of the world the merging markets are loaded with debt. china's growth has slowed down in fact, i believe that thanks to covid, our growth is going to be exceeding china's growth showing the strength of the economy and really around the world there's so much going on most of it negative, that says to me there's a lot more risk as far as earnings disappointment and economic growth and the risk
of defaults which we already started to see pop up in the merging markets. it makes the u.s. look pretty good. >> it's a good time to have your radar beyond the borders of the u.s. and overseas as well. thanks for getting us started on this tuesday we'll see you next time. in the meantime, take a look at futures here. still in the red, i think off the worst levels in the morning. "squawk on the street" continues and opening bell in less than ten minutes. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity.
the dot com bubble, 9/11 and the financial crisis remember called that stock market bottom of 2009. we call it the hanes bottom. our thoughts are with mark's wife cindy, son matthew, and daughter meredith on this day. facebook's products harm children, stoke division and weaken our democracy. teens blame instagram for increases in the rate of anxiety and depression. it's not great when your customers are voting with their feet and deciding to kind of walk away. facebook's parent company meta dropping more than 26% last week... that is more than $230 billion in market share value. when will there be accountability?
>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. zoom shares are up in the premarket off of the session highs. the company did post better than expected quarterly earnings and is raising its profit outlook. zoom has been shifting its products aimed at the hybrid workplace as people return to the office a lot of discussion before the print yesterday, mike, a name that was once 25 times sales, now five times sales with a good cash horde >> went from 25 times sales to 22 times forward earnings. you go down 80% in price and that's how it is it's now kind of just a normal company, right
sales expected to grow next year 10 to 12%. with some kind of ability to expand and reinvent along the way, it's obviously -- it loses the buzz,but it has a much mor sort of tangible place, i think, in the tech universe. >> and will be important in the ongoing conversation about the future of hybrid work, the future of i.t. budgets, how they consolidate their vendors, how they demand their workers to come in or not, that's the whole point. >> 100%. and, david, the question with these things always, do the big companies absorb that type of function, right? is microsoft not going to be sitting there and saying, oh, zoom can have its niche. a much more familiar story based on past tech evolution cycles. >> yeah, what's interesting, those numbers were great, mike, 25 times revenue to 22 times
earnings it puts into perspective what happens with many of these stocks carl, back to the office they're saying people are returning to the office, i don't know i'm not seeing that much evidence of it yet we seem to be stuck at somewhere around 40%, perhaps, on any given day. and here we are, how many years into this thing, two years and three months, i guess, at this point. you know, keep calling it the new normal it's just the normal at this point. hybrid work is the normal. i can certainly say that as well, being here, back in our ec headquarters you know, don't look for a lot of people around, because they won't be here. >> no, i think that's right. obviously there's some regional variations in that, i could say, if you're in the middle of the country, it's a different story. doesn't everybody has the zoom subscription it's more, well, people aren't going to get rid of it it's not clear that that means a
lot of future growth based on hybrid work. >> i keep thinking what ken griffin said last week, having everybody back together has been really powerful in driving forward our busy we'll see whether or not safety overrides the labor cycle if the labor cycle makes the turn let's get the opening bell here. the big board, it's nicolet bankshares based in wisconsin celebrating its transfer fro the nasdaq and at the nasdaq multiple media company, avid markets its annual investor day. we haven't gotten to best buy, really, mike the first miss in about five years. revenues were ahead. comps down 8.5, we were looking for 9.4. it was trading good in the premarket which some said -- >> it's green. it's up half a percent at the open i just think -- it's down almost
20% month to date before this. right after the target, walmart announcements, people took flight from a lot of the larger retailers and also did know that most of the pain while, yes, people are worried about durable goods, high-end hard goods like best buy sales, the real pain is in clothing in terms of what people are worried about, the overhang and the discounting it seemed like a reasonable outlook at the outset. supercheap-looking stock if you believe that the cash flows hold up it's cheap on par with, you know, the kohl's and the gaps of the world. >> they say, david, our guide would not assume a full recession at this point and, obviously, if that were the case, we'll continue to update it would characterize it as a
softer environment, not a full recession. i don't know if you've seen some of these inventory numbers abercrombie up 44. target was up 43 walmart was up 24. kohl's was up 40. >> six months ago, it was, you want to be one of the big box stores because they can get the product. they're the one who is are going to be to cut through a lot of the shipping friction, david, and especially at least have enough and now they have too much. >> i do wonder, mike, was there any -- i don't know -- i've heard this, was there overordering in part to make sure, given the supply chain constraints, that you had enough product. and so was there more that might have been deemed appropriate given the current demand that we saw. now, they have a lot more product on hand perhaps because of that because you didn't know how much you were going to be able to get because the supply
chain was so unpredictable. >> i think that's exactly right. and all the chains were focused on get as much as possible they were operating on the premise that we have this rare window where markdowns are not a thing and people are accepting full price and so there wasn't maybe perceived as much of a risk to having too much inventory. here's where we stand. i guess there was, you know, at some point pent-up demand for clothing, right? people thought the back to office thing was going to be a thing and i don't know it's -- i'm sure it goes chain by chain in terms of what the missteps might have been combined with an overall slow down and gas prices doing what they're doing, if nothing else, depletes what you can spend on other things >> there's corie barry talking about those trends in the second quarter and their expectations best buy doing okay, versus the likes of snap. we talked about it at the top of the show the company, of course,
surprising many when yesterday during the jp morgan conference and following up with a filing it says its likely revenue will come in below the low end of our guidance range the macro economic environment has deteriorated further and faster than expected when we issued our guidance fror the second quarter shares of snap down another 36%. as i said earlier, the stock did not perform well after the last -- after those quarterly numbers. in fact, some saw it as an opportunity to sort of pick it up in the mid-20s given what appeared to be a fairly decent earnings multiple, back to what you were talking about the, mike, these companies that had traded at multiples of sales not good enough there, though. and, again, we do find ourselves
wondering, what exactly did change in such a short amount of time in terms of that macro economic environment that they're citing, whether it's supply chain, inflation, ukraine, and other things as well interest rates also. >> yeah, i mean, obviously, all those things that affect their customers, the unknown piece is, when there's a little bit of bell tightening and when the advertisers are looking to prioritize where they really want to focus their spending, you know, is snap a little bit on the outside or they're getting less than their share. of course, they still have the overhang of the apple privacy changes and things like that i did mention take a look at how meta does trade. just for benchmarking, going to close under 175, meta, before they had that earnings, they had a little bit of a relief trade and so we haven't gotten back down there and see if it tries to get some traction above its own lows a very different story because
it's down so much already, but has that large earning base that has attracted a lot of value investors, unlike the past. >> we're going to watch social media for sure and we mentioned the potential effect on twitter. shareholder meeting coming up. wedbush says $54.20 is out the window musk tries to walk and use this spam account issue as the scapegoat. accepting a lower bid price would be a much better alternative for the board, wedbush argues as for tesla, a couple of interesting things, david, one is cathie wood bought 16,000 shares of tesla and then bernstein comes out and says that a fall to 400 on tesla would require musk to sell about 13 million shares. we continue to watch his risk here as he tries to buy this company. >> yeah, listen, you know,
respectfully many would disagree with that and would go back to the contract which is straightforward and requires mr. musk to buy this company at $54.20, and it would have to be fraud on the part of twitter, essentially, knowing that, in fact, they were misstating the number of bot accounts or fake accounts on the platform could be very difficult for him to prove that. but, again, nothing says that if you're twitter, you don't say, all right, give you a little bit of the discount if you will give us a far larger reserve break fee and promise in no way or how are you ever getting out of it from here. but, man, that is one enormous spread but, of course, also, perhaps being pressured as well on the fundamentals as a result of what we've been talking about with snap guys, pinterest down 20% in the control booth, can we put up a three-year of pinterest
great sales by musk when he did sell at the 900 range, at least as much as 6 billion in stock, to help pay for twitter. there's pinterest. it's a total -- almost a total round trip from where it was, you know, over three-year period actually, does that say down 30%? yeah, just gives you some sense as to what's happened to these companies. paypal seemed to be interested in buying it, but it was not clear what was going on there. >> exactly that's one of those little spikes on the way down was that paypal news. it's remarkable. to your point about twitter, if you think about how the spread is arrived at, it's essentially some probability that the deal gets done as it is meant to, at $54.20 then applying that probability to where you think that stock would trade if there were no
deal and so that assumed level that twitter would trade at probably has gone down a lot. it doesn't account for the whole spread which is over 40% upside right now from where twitter is trading, but it's a dynamic story related to the willingness to step in and make that bet, underwrite that probability. >> david, i know you like to watch bison. he says snap's problem is musk's problem. now we've heard people say musk plays hard biball and he might an adjustments, but that was a 2.6% haircut musk doesn't need one of those or five of those ten tiffanys is more like it >> all true. and don is very good, always enjoy reading his stuff which is usually dead on. listen, twitter is fascinating, continues to be, and, again, that spread is enormous for any
number of reasons. it's going to be -- still waiting for them to sue him. that's the one question i keep asking them, why haven't they as of yet started the war >> but, david, just on that point, what -- what specific landmark or, you know, responsibility that musk has to deliver something absent just finally closing the deal would be the trigger for them to say we have to sue you to adhere to the deal >> reasonable best efforts i would argue he's not making them right now you know, tweeting constantly and questioning whether there's fraud at a company that you're buying doesn't appear to be your reasonable best efforts to get the deal done. he's in breach right there, you could argue. >> yeah. >> guys, speaking of this, broadcom and vmware, yesterday, i think it was the journal or
dow jones reporting 140 a share. that is from what i'm hearing protect as well. again, it's roughly. could be a bit more or bit less. part of it will depend on the performance of the stock it's roughly a 50/50 cash stock deal that will give people some sense here in terms of what we're talking about. again, 50/50 cash and stock. and that is new in terms of at least what people want to understand maybe we want to actually show them at the bottom of the screen as well. but, you know, another question, of course, if they do announce this deal, will be whether, in fact, and how long it takes to get antitrust approval you're going to need china you're going to need -- some people remember, well, that it was not successful in buying qualcomm in part because treasury stepped in and said no.
that doesn't appear to be in play here. but china certainly will be important. u.s., you wouldn't know. it wouldn't seem to be an issue in infrastructure software, but could take at least if not more than a year to get any deal done roughly 140. roughly 50/50 cash/stock split, carl. >> all right, guys before we go to break, let's take a look at the bond report we're going to hear from powell around 2:20 east coast time. i think the remarks are prerecorded. but something to keep in mind ahead of tomorrow. we have the vix, still sub 30. ten-year cooling off below 2.79. keep an eye on that with the dow below 163. >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco.
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expecting 57.7, close, 57.5. if we look at the services, 53.5, lighter than expected following 55.6 and it is the weakest since january when we were at 51.2 and finally the composite. 53.8, well below the 55.7 expected it follows 56 and it is also the lightest since january at 51.1 these are a bit of a disappoint. new home sales at the top of the hour "squawk on the street" will return in two minutes. you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or
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i'm planting this weekend, so do not bother me. i know you want to bother me i'm putting in my tomato plants, so stop it. >> i'll leave you alone. >> we'll look for pictures, jim. >> yes >> always in a suit. man gardens with a tie. >> i'm going to do it. garden in a tie just for you that's jim at the end of friday's show outlining his gardening plans for his time off. he did follow through.
i saw in his tweet yesterday, when i garden, i always go -- and i replied, he's a man of his word. >> i want to see him down on his knees with his hands in the ground and i want to see that suit have some dirt on it. that was like -- here's my garden, i'm in my suit, right? i don't know i don't know, carl is that what i was looking for >> there was a stock point to this that was late spring for depot, had some effect. >> it's great he's getting it in there, a lot of the country in ag land hasn't gotten much planted because of the weather >> i remember that from "30 rock" he was in a tuxedo
sara eisen joins us from davos >> reporter: good morning. wanted to share some color from the ground here, where tox are on the way >> what the stock market is talking about, how much the global economy is going to slow, i wanted to share a bit with you from a panel i moderated a few moments ago. the topic was, are the markets disconnected from reality? there were some interesting comments and actual ideas that came from it katie koch says there's a great long-term opportunity in some parts of technology. she mentioned boyle tech, for instance, she mentioned software and cybersecurity.
she also said some of the warning, we're talking about the snap warning on top of what we got from target and walmart, ross stores are potential worrying signs that the u.s. is getting to a slowdown. and some interesting comments from the cio at the qatar sovereign wealth fund. they move a lot of money around. he's particularly engaged in the priority markets, where he says, david, there are a lot of down arounds now and they're starting to reflect more of the reality that we're getting where private markets are as negative as what we're seeing in the public markets and sorb clearly the discussion is about
the changing economic fundamentals, and how that's being reflected in the market. we'll talk to one in the next hour of "squawk on the street", sanjay morotra, the ceo of micron, right in the heart of supply chain issues. carl, i'll see you next hour for that interview we'll see you nat bit. let's got to bob pisani. good morning, bob. >> two temp forwards, one step backwards. meta is really weighing on the overall s&p. semiconductors are also notably weak
retail, of course, are weak. and, of course, the market has a defensive tone somewhat, health care is doing better, consumer staples a bit better in terms of big-cam tech, meta looks like the biggest decliner on the s&p 500 right now that related to the snap news, obviously. google and big-cap semis are also notably weaker here macro conditions worsen, so we provided our guidance in early march those trends have continued into the second quarter, and as a result revising our sales and profitability expectations for the year however, on the conference call, she was asked about recession chances, sort of clarified what they were saying she said it's fair to say we are
factors in elements of softer demand, but we are not planning for a full recession i think important clarification for that regardless here, it seems like the companies with the april-sending quarter are reporting -- if you want a retail trend here, we saw some detier yay in april, whether you want to call it climate issues in april, or inflation or demand issues, there was some deterioration. and consumer discretionary is one of the few groups where expectations are coming down in terms of what to watch for. nordstrom will be reporting. i will watch costco their
multiple has gone down dramatically this is the classic earnings growth, great quality earnings growth earnings estimates not coming down. i think the southerly media -- there's another leg there. snap seems to have -- not just that the costs are up the fed inflation, russia, ucraig crane and covid lockdown in china. at least everyone is messaging me for these big three issues, it's the pce on friday
welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. the dow is down about 200, reversing some of monday's rally. also some weak guidance and a rush to treasuries, as we have the ten-year yield down. rick santelli? >> yes before we get to new home sales, richmond's fed is also out it's minus nine, much different
from the positive nine we're looking for. that happens to be the weakest since may of 2020. for april new home sales, 591,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units that's down now for the fourth straight month and 591,000 units, that's the weakest since april of 2020. we know interest rates have been going up, but there's a variety of other issues, and for some of those, let's head east to diana olick. a weak number. >> i had to look at this, and thought, wait a minute we were expecting 750,000. i've got to lay all of this on interest rates i really do. we started the month at 4.88% for the 30-year fixed ended at 5.14%. these are contracts signed in april. it's not back several months
this is the most recent indicator. if you're looking at a $450,000 house, which was the median price, that mortgage payment just went up $100 in the month, but from the start of the year, that monthly payment has increased by $450. that's a lot for the average borrower also, looking at the month's supply for the builders, a nine-month supply up from a six-month supply, that's very high five to six-month supply is generally considered a balance between buyer and seller, so nine months means they're sitting on a lot of properties toll brothers is reporting after the bell, and we're going to look closely at the cancellations rates, because we're hearing that people who might have thought buying in january, put money down on a new home, and decided, you know,
can't afford this anymore. that is a big miss, this is most likely going to hit the builders today. >> you just made that important point about how much your mortgage payment would have gone up you know, is there a period in which you have seen this dramatic falloff that we might look back on >> of course, the great resection, and that was a much bigger draft, based on all kinds of different fundamentals in the mortgage market, which obviously is not the case today, but you are seeing a consumer clearly stretched here inflation, they're having to dole out more money for everything else. a newly built home, maybe it's a discretionary purchase new homes are more expensive than existing homes. again, it's the higher-level
buyer. perhaps they're also more influenced by the stock market you don't generally see this month-to-month drop like this. we are down close to 29% year oever year in new home sales it's a very large drop it says people who were really stretched, they can't take this mortgage rate interest >> diana olick, thank you. let's give you a look at three movers zoom video, that company topped its earnings estimates the stock is down 72% over the last year, as mike pointed out earlier, one traded at 25 times revenue, now closer to 25 times earnings, but ekeing out a bit of a gain. revenue was better than expected by analysts who followed company.
another retailer, abercrombie & fich, they are down, after posting an unexpected quarterly loss due to higher costs is what they're saying now. another big mover is snap, on pay for its worst day ever as a public company the ceo warned in a note to employees, the company will miss its own targets, also slow hiring, and rising rates and apple's new privacy features barton, good to have you back. >> thank you >> i've seen some notes on the street today that some investors likely feel burned, giving the guidance from a few weeks ago. what do you think happened >> i think we're -- i think the world is changing. you know, this is what happens when the make rho changes, you
know, people are surprised, and i think snap was a leading indicator of the weakness in the first quarter earnings season. i think they're also,i think, ahead of the curve in the second quarter, saying things are getting a bit weaker. >> right initially that caution they were feeling was largely a dynamic out of ukraine, right? what do we think drove this? i've seen some estimates that maybe revenue growth for the last piece of the quarter music 15 >> i'm modeling they'll be growing in the teens here in the second quarter when the numbers come in and, you know, i don't think it improves much from there in the near term i think the macro is what they're calls out. last quarter they talked about ukraine. this quarter seems to be on inflation and the interest
rates. remember the warnings from walmart, from target, not that those are necessarily advertisers driving what's happening here at snap, but i think it's emblematic of an environment snap is beginning to feel some would wonder macro trends like this translated so fast, and back to carl's question, are you surprised how quickly we've seen some of these budgets changing >> i think everything in this day and age is surprising. i think what's happened is that a lot of people are feeling the environment shift really quickly underneath their feet. we're hearing it in the data you guys talk about the housing market people are kind of -- their heads -- people are going through collective whiplash. i think snap is kind of, you know, right at the very tip of
that whiplash today. >> all right we're looking at other names as well that are far larger businesses any worries in terms of actual weakness >> i think we're in an environment where you have to assume everyone will feel what's going on i think in this environment, those equities you own, you have to think about a longer-term perspective. to look through the improvement on the other side. in my book, snap is one of those, because of its strength with the audience and strength in technology and its relative strength in audience alphabet in my mind is another, but the landscape generally i have many more sells than
neutrals i would say you're willing to marshal your resources into the stories that seem the strongest at this point, and those in my book, you know, make that cut, but that's not to say -- over the next several days and weeks as we learn what the environment is pivoting to >> martin, we appreciate that. you see -- sara, we do now have the s&p below yesterday's intraday low barton, thanks. >> thank you carl, thank you very much. nasdaq now down more than 3% continues our coverage here, we have a company joining us that is really on the front lines of a lot of these issues from
geopolitics to the supply change that is micron's ceo sanjay mehrotra good to see you again. >> good to go here with you. >> tech stocks are getting hit, and it's now lost about 30%. are the fundamentals changing for you to warrant that kind of selling? >> if you look at long-term fundamentals, those are really strong >> with storage, with ai, 5g, all these trends are healthy trends in the long term. near term certainly make roe economics, uncertainties, giving china covid lockdowns as well as weaker china, consumer, as well as ukraine/russia war impact, i think the weakness is somewhat
well known and, of course, on the pc side, on the consumer pc, the chromebooks, and lower-income pcs, that's well known in the industry as well however, the enterprise pc, commercial pc, desktop, the cloud is strong, industrial is strong as well we have said that fiscal year 22 will be a record year for micron we are executesing very well on our technology, and i think we are long term very well positioned -- we got a pair of pretty ugly reports on richmond fed and housing data, and there's question whether the recession may come sooner than
wall street thinking. >> there's no question there are uncertainties, and all businesses, all industries are navigating through this. i think technology is what helps you power through the environment of global ma macroissues. from the data centers, intelligence edge to devices -- >> i'm sorry to cut you off, but this is exactly what you said how many years ago when told me our industry is structural growth, not cyclical, but everyone thinking -- >> it's cyclical demand, but we do not escape economic trends. all industries get affected. but if you look at our industry, because memory storage is becoming more valuable, through
the cycles, you see growth, profitability, and micron, you know, we are leading the industry with our most advanced dm, our most advanced nand, well ahead of -- so the trends that the world is going through, we're not escape them, but the long-term trends -- we held investor day just two weeks ago. we talked about the memory and storage industry will go from about $-- it took four decades o get to $160 billion, but it will add another $160 billion by the end of this decade >> how is the supply looking >> we have, first of all, no
manufacturing in china we have small assembly and test operations in china. and of course our footprint is very diversified with manufacturing in 11 different sites, you know, across the globe. certainly, in terms of supply chain, as semiconductor shortages have hit everything across the board -- >> is it getting better? >> i think overall the supply chain is getting better, but it is not out of the woods yet. i think some problems will last into 2023. it is getting better seismic conductor companies like micron, we are investing in capital investments, figure, this fiscal year will be at record levels of capital investments to continue to bring cutting-edge technologies.
>> what about inflation in your industry and what consumers will ultimately pay for electronics >> certainly inflation is playing a role in terms of import costs going up, whether it's construction, materials used in semiconductors, capacity, logistics, as well as labor. >> and that's still rising >> inflation is impacting the -- our company as well as all industry we are no exception in that regard however, we continue to drive a higher productivity, you know, throughout manufacturing operations, through deploying smart manufacturing in our production micron is recognized by many sources as a leader some smart manufacturing. we continue to drive production and continue to, of course, engage with our customers to make sure that we get the value that is deserved for our
products, because certainly profitability is key in terms of being ability to reinvest in the business as well value for memory and products is going up, and we continue to work with our customers with inflation. president biden making news in asia this week talking about taiwan and the u.s. would defend it there's clearly a discussion about the next geopolitical risk here in davos. what would happen to the semiconductor industry if taiwan was invaded? >> it's critically important that that status for taiwan, in terms of its ability to supply technology and semiconductor companies is preserved in all the discussions between the nations. and this is where the certification of the supply chain is important
so diversified supply chain is critically important the focus on u.s. chip sets, u.s. fab sets to support the semiconductor industry is absolutely critically important. i really hope that congress get the acts across the finish line. and quickly, the discussion about the fight against climate change we have a partnership with the ranking of companies when it comes to climate and you rank toward the top of that list. how fast can you move? >> so certainly you're
absolutely right, there's a lot of focus at micron on protecting the environment. two weeks ago at that investor day we had announced that micron aims to be net zero on emission by the 2050 time frame we have goals identified by 2030 as well. this is in regard to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as energy, waste and water. so this is a top priority. in fact, a couple years back we announced an investment over five to seven years in the infrastructure to upgrade the infrastructure so, we continue to march along toward our goals for environmental susta sustainability we have goals that are science based that we are continuing to
monitoring. >> 2050 sounds a long way away. >> but we have intermittent goals, which is in alignment with the paris accord as well. >> sanjay, thank you very much sanjay merhotra, the ceo of micron carl, back to you. nasdaq at near a 4% decline. we did get the data on new home sales, and home builders are meteorology the biggest laggards here the s&p home building sector now nears an 18-month low on the heels of the much weaker numbers, the lowers since january. as we take a break, the road map for the rest of the hour we're going to talk about rising inventory levels, the prospect of discounting
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back 3888. art cashin, ubs director of floor operations, i have to imagine you are watching the ten-year below 275, what is that telling sinus the fact that as bitcoin dips down, at least coincidental with it, not causal ly people are worried about some systemic problem when the stablecoin cracked several days ago, they were worried somebody would be caught
offbase for hundreds of billions, and they're not sure whether that's it. we look like we're taking out yesterday's intraday lows. that's not a good thing the market here, as i say, is demonstrating nervousness, despite the safety >> i'm worried about today, i think it's a very important day systemically. it looks like they're going to retest again, and as they get
down, the 3815 leave believe it or not that a fibonacci retracement. >> i know there were those hardened by the -- art, you do mention despite the vix, what does it take at this point to get elevated levels on that? i had said if we had one of those 9 to 10 sell-off days, and you got the vix up around 40 or above, that would tell me we might a washout bottom, but we're not there. but watching this yield on the ten year, it is telling me clearly that there is fear out
there in the marketplace, and people are on a flight to safety everything from taiwan and what the president said, where do we go with putin, how is his health, will he do something desperate, there's a lot of things out there if we close ugly today, that will be a problem. >> what happened to the part of the market waiting for signs that inflation would be arrested somehow? new home sales, we mentioned i see a ten-year breakevening now at a three-month low isn't this the kind of thing the market was ready to applaud? >> the market observers were ready to applaud, and we clearly are in some shape for powell to get bailed out, in the sense
that i think inflation will begin to come down some of it is transitory, the clog in the shipping lines is about to break up. as you say, inventories are beginning to swell, but for now, the market seems worried about some kind of systemic problem. so this was a very nervous market here, carl. >> art, i have a feeling we'll talk again sooner rather than later. thank you for that. >> take care well, as stocks, as you just heard, are continues to sell off, we're talking about affirm, coinbase and paypal down again, after a lot of weakness all right. we've got lomo f ya t reorou
time now for our etf spotlight. ticker metv. roblox is a fun second and today atlantic equities downgraded that, saying, quote, weakening download trends suggest that engagement could soften david, the market is in no mood anymore for the metaverse. not that kind of market. no. >> amazing how many companies you can look at. sara, back to you in a second. bertha coombs has our update president biden is heading
home he left japan after meeting with leaders, saying russia's invasion of ukraine underscores the need to maintain territorial integrity. more babies were born in the u.s. than the previous year. the 2021 increase of 1%, and only 3.7 million still falls short of birthing in 2019 before the pandemic. and if you wanted to buy one of the five dresses worn by judy garland in "the wizard of oz," you have to wait there's a legal fight over who actually owns those dresses. in 1987, it was given to a pr priest, and the school says they own it
his niece says they go to her. >> are you going to be bidding on that one? after the break, we'll check in with jim o'neill, and the nasdaq is down about.5 3%. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor
confidence comes from the interviews that you have been doing. economists are pushing back against the conclusion of consumer weakness. they are arguing that household balance sheets remain in good shape, despite consumers battling high inflation, and the shoppers have the means to keep on spending, though perhaps these lack the sentiment barclays writing that the narrative of the demise of the u.s. consumers is greatly exaggerated. and it's pointed out that households had over $4 trillion in bank accounts some of that has obviously been worked out, but it is thought
that there's a lot of dry powder out there for spending to be sure, there are considerable challenges. also a reverse wealth effect from this equity sell-off. but because so many more people are employed these days, you have wages, the total amount of wages paid to all workers is rising faster than inflation jpmorgan writing that we think that real spending is still on track for a solid increase in the second quarter around 4% even anticipating some softness in may and june, along with the transition from goods to services, but there could be some relief. some goods companies over-ordered they may have to mark down inventory to move them out that might provide some inflation relief in the months ahead. guys >> we're already seeing that in the retail earnings, steve. >> sure. >> i just wanted to point out
what's happening in the bond market, some intense buying of bonds, two-year yield especially that was the data at 10:00 a.m. that came out, steve it's now below 250 we got really weak home sales, weak on richmond fed is there a realization that things might be slowing down take away the consumers for a moment broadly in the economy, we know the fed is trying to crush housing. maybe it's working. >> i started reporting this story this morning i need to point out the dip in the bond market happened before the data the 9:45 a.m., and then the housing data -- if you look at it, it started at 9:30 so far, to understand this decline, and they're very much puzzled by it, except to saying what we're hearing is
technicals, shorts being stomped out. you've had a ferocious move upward in yields if you were to zoom out a bit you would see it's up near the 270 level on the two-year. that was not confirmed or supported, so from a technical standpoint, which obviously is not my special, sara, what i am hearing is it was shorts being stopped out at a certain level i think also by the way, the data did help it along on the downward path. >> sure. i did not realize that it was before the data. steve liesman, let -- steve, thank you. >> yeah. sure zoom in on the charts, which is what we do on cnbc. david, the drop in housing, you know, higher interest rates, this is what the fed is trying to get so perhaps they won't have to do as much as the market thinking if it's starting to work >> we did. as diana pointed out, that is
not often the case, that kind of sudden move of that type consumer staples, perhaps holding up better. joining us now, former goldman sachs asset management, jim o'neill. always good to have you here, jim. you ended a recent piece with a question things are changing quickly. are we headed into a global recession? >> i think it's touch and go, to be quite honest. you look at the chinese numbers published just after i wrote that piece they were even worse than i expected
china has been the bigger single driver of the global economy if that's a sign of what is going on during their lockdown, it's bad what you guys are just touching on there, fascinating to listen to the discussion, if the fed keeps sticking to this seeming tightening for every meeting as far as we can see, and u.s. financial conditions worth more, i think the chances of a recession around the world are higher, i'm afraid to say. but i suspect the fed will be as interested in the housing data as some of the other data. obviously it's a bit of a lead indicator than some of the other stuff. i think we're very delicately balanced the fact that the bond market is
rallying, obviously suggests that the market is starting to think the fed may not need to be so tough, which at the core of my piece i wrote last week, as i'm sure you looked at, the bank of england has come to the conclusion, at least for now, maybe we adopt have to have as tough as we originally thought the shock to consumers prices seems to be horrific it's a bit surprised to hear you saying it's not in the u.s i find that hard to believe, to be honest. >> perhaps, perhaps maybe the central banks think about their newfound hawkishness, but how likely do you think that will be >> again, even before the russian invasion, it seems to me where things will be going will
be tough enough already. it also puts another colossal span in the works. it's bigger than the inflationary potential it's not entire ly also fat nating, i don't think it's going much airtime, the ongoing five year of university of michigan inflation expectation, which i always regard as a biblical type of fruitful survey is still remarkably stable. so, you know, if i were a voting member of the fomc, if i had been hawkish a month ago, i think i would be backing off a bit right now. >> interesting you started off our conversation by mentioning china as well.
are you surprised, jim, having followed that country as long as you have, that they haven't changed course off zero covid policy and if they don't, what do you think are the implications >> i jokingly said to a quite senior chinese official recently, who interestingly had been allowed to travel around various key countries in the world, that i thought i knew the place a of -- after 35 years of following it but maybe it was just all fluke. the last two our three years, particularly now with this aggressive zero covid policy, i don't get it with omicron 2, it's so infection out. the idea that you can get rid of it with an aggressive lockdown
is kind of for the birds it seems like an issue for president xi and the guys closest to them. they used to be good at risk mitigation, but this is very unlike the china of old. i'm a bit baffled about it, to be quite honest. >> jim, it's sara in davos. >> hey, sara >> you're sounding pretty negative on the china policy, but -- >> not like me, is it, really? >> i do wonder if the market is an opportunity, though, jim. if you look around the world, it's one of those -- both fiscal and monetary in covid, which actually has been a bullish factor for the economy. eventually on the other side of this, there's a ton of pent-up
demand, a big reopening trade, a lot of commodity that will happen there i wonder if there's a big opportunity for investors in china, even though everyone is so down on it. >> i do think clearly it's a go for a big post-covid bounce like we saw across the west again, as i discussed with you last year, one of the strangely more easily forecastable things i have come across you will get that bounce as and when the chinese think they can deal with it a bit better, but a, you have to figure out when that is, and the bigger issue is it's not as though this is the only risk they brought about themselves the whole sort of freezing of the housing lending business, as well as their very aggressive domestic lockdown on all sorts of business sectors means that, you know, it's not the china that's already, you know, moving
in the right -- or the same direction. it's a bit trickier, but you're right, in that sense it will definitely be some kind of significant bounce as and we they ease up on the covid lockdown the last 24 hours, while it suggests they're doing it a bit in shane headline, there seems to be tightening in other areas. you're right, when that comes, it will cause a big bounce, that's for sure. >> my other question is, the deglobalization or fragmentation of the world driven by geopolitics, driven by the pandemic it goes backs to brexit. it goes back to america first, but this idea of onshoring supply chains, and security, that sort of thing
do you think that's a phenomenon that will drive markets? >> i'm smiling to myself, sara, about this in davos. in the days when i was invited to this very strange event myself, i learned it was one of the best reverse indicators in the world. i'm pretty skeptical about this whole deglobalization stuff. it's very capturing of the mood of the sort of classes of business and the policy watching arena. alsoly on the geopolitical level, it's true, but i'm not quite sure in the real world it's necessarily, a, happening to the degree that people are talking about, or whether it's permanent. without getting overly technical, you guys know as well
as i do, if the u.s. savings rate is generally low, they have to import stuff from the rest of the world in terms of capital and good you can pretend you're going to do all of this on-shoring, but you can't do it if you don't have the savings rate. i can cite endless examples of talking about china, notwithstanding what i want, two months back, a very cool, trendy online fashion and other clothing retailer did a big raise, like $100 billion valuation, dwight as big as the two biggest valued publicly quoted clothing companies in the world. guess what the two leading investors were u.s. investment firms, so what sign is that regarding deglobalization? people are talk ing.
we always appreciate to hear you talk and having a conversation with you. >> oh, dear. i set myself up for that one. >> no, you didn't. you're always great to listen to i mean that. mean that jim, thank you, jim o'neill. >> all right take care, guys. coming up on tech check, a lot more on the social media meltdown snaps down 41% now that's going to take you below the ipo price of 17 back in 2017 we'll talk about the profit warning and the other names in the group. and we'll talk with orlando bravo at the top of the urho dow is down 5000 -- down 500.
just about nothing has gone right for the bulls today. weak macro, weak micro out of the snap retail, dow down to 500. all sectors of red financials are down too. the real weakness is in consumer discretionary and information technology down 3 plus we'll see what turns it around with the s&p holding 3,0880.
the street" live from davos, switzerland today. a lot of concern lately in the market, and as we have been reporting about the u.s. consumer and the global consumer, i just wanted to point out ralph lauren earnings which came out this morning, and the stock which was higher premarket has given up some here on the market downturn. they were stronger than expected organic revenue growth of 17%, even in china, where we have been seeing shut downs, they saw 27% and it was an earnings beat. i talked to the ceo a few moments ago about the results. he said all three factors of growth are working products, regions and channels patrice said our consumer is quite resilient, despite the macro uncertainty. they have a higher income consumer that could be part of the story, which is less price sensitive. on the stock which has suffered and trading at a 52-week low, he said it's suffering from concern around apparel space we're not seeing it in the consumer he's seen improvement on the supply front in terms of sourcing, and expect that to continue to improve.
to go again, some of the negative we have gotten from consumer discretionary >> along with best buy, shares up slightly. speaking of davos, what else do you got coming up? >> tomorrow we've got an exclusive interview with mark ben benioff, the ceo of salesforce, and also wanted to share a piece of the conversation that i had with vladimir, a heavy weight boxer, a member of the ukrainian army he has come to davos with a message for the world. i asked him what it's like right now in kyiv where he is there fighting listen to what he said. >> three months ago, when russian military forces were on the outskirts of the city and you could hear the shellings, you could hear daily, hourly
explosions you could recognize is it in or out. is it something that flew in or something that's coming out. the city was empty 5 million people were living and working in the city of kyiv, up to 5 million and the city was empty i have never seen kyiv empty but i saw it right in the beginning of the war now, the life is back. it doesn't mean, though, that the danger is out. we are still in the war zone >> you'll hear more of that interview in closing bell later, david, you i just really wanted to play it for you because there is a delegation from ukraine here the foreign minister is here, along with the mayor of kyiv he talked about how it's dangerous to get out right now, but they felt it was worth the risk to come here and tell the
international community, keep supporting us, you know, keep it in the media, in the story, because the fight that they are having in ukraine, according to him, is the world's fight, and they are really trying to lobby the message here on the world stage in davos so didn't want to leave without playing that i think it's important and it was powerful to hear. >> it was. and i'm glad you brought it to us, sarah. good luck with what's upcoming that's going to do it for "squawk on the street," let's send it over to "tech check. >> i'm carl quintanilla with john ford, today, the bottom falls out on snap, revealing sharp deceleration in the business shares down 40%. the rest of media, social media feels the pain, pinterest and meta get hit the hardest is there more pain to come especially following the negative prints from walmart, and target, and the last piece of this