Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  May 31, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
red flag. >> i'm noticing, guys, amazon is up better than 3% today, more than 14% in the past week. life comes at you fast >> after last week this is not too bad at this point. dow down 90. s&p and dow now green again for the month. let's get to the half with melissa lee. welcome to the halftime report i am melissa lee in for scott wapner a wild month coming to a close a bear market rally or start of something meaningful, we debate that and opportunities in the market now the investment committee, stephanie lange, josh brown, joe tear a tear the nasdaq eeking out a gain at 15 and the ten year note higher
12:01 pm
in today's session 2.85%. we broke a big, long losing streak bag, scary losing streak last week stephanie link, do we feel better today you had barbeque, enjoy the weather outside, play with the kids how you feeling? >> beautiful weather but not a beautiful market, right? i don't think a lot has changed in terms of the market being choppy in trading range for this year we have been talking about this since january. there were a lot of people that were excited about the core pce being less bad but it is quite high peaking inflation narrative is a bit optimistic frankly inflation is just about everywhere look at energy prices today. they're spiking again. the eu had record cpi at 8.1%. a record home prices up 21.2% 17 out of 20 states that were surveyed had higher prices that's going to feed into rent
12:02 pm
increases which are much stickier parts of inflation. the inflation, we are hearing from the consumer being a challenge, hearing from corporations now you have china reopening that might lead to better demand, maybe better supply chain, but higher demand i just don't think the fed is capable of engineering a soft landing and or doing something on the positive side in terms of inflation. even though the data has been good, earnings have been good, i think the unknowns are what is wreaking havoc on the market and i don't see it changing soon. >> we haven't seen the full effect of the eu ban on russian oil. they're going to sign that in the coming days. peak inflation is quaint, joe. where does inflation go from the peak that's a big question for consumers and businesses >> for sure. certainly the challenge as relates to energy prices moving towards $120 i understand they're pulling back slightly.
12:03 pm
natural gas pulled back to 8.5%. inflation is going to remain present. to stephanie's point, that's why volatility is elevated, why monetary policy has to stay committed to ensuring that it is more hawkish to give perception of fending off a lot of inflation. so the all clear signal on the market, i don't think anyone could come on and suggest that now. i do think there is further up side potential we are 3% below the 50 day moving average at 4270 market can clearly go back towards that level there are some positives that investors can begin to think about. stephanie mentioned china reopening. i still personally believe president biden and his administration will have to relax or temporarily suspend some chinese tariffs to ward off inflationary pressures so it comes down to what type of
12:04 pm
stocks do you want to be owning in what i am describing as a volatile environment i still want to avoid hyper growth stocks. i purchased t row proois and lululemon, want to be respectful of valuation and be invested but want to do it in a judicious and diversified way. >> glass half full, glass half empty, jim lebenthal when it comes to the losses for the past seven weeks for the s&p 500 and nasdaq in that the higher the markets go or the more stable the markets are, that's more work for the fed the side effect of the fed hiking interest rates is going to be some pull back in the equity market. if we are celebrating that the markets are stable, maybe the fed goes in harder >> melissa, i like the setup t the question it is glass half full, glass
12:05 pm
half empty and the market gets to decide what it wants to focus in on that's what sentiment means. sentiment has been overwhelmingly negative several weeks until last week. if i ask myself what changed, it really was that bostic came out and threw out the idea of pause in september that's one person, one data point. it is almost meaningless, except it is the first indication of anything like a pause. what it indicates to me is this is a market teetering on what the fed will do in terms of sentiment. and so for that you have to look at the internals of macro economic data coming up this week obviously we have the jobs report friday. labor force participation rate is what i'm looking at first and foremost in similar fashion, ism surveys tomorrow and thursday, and it is internals that the market is focused in on, prices paid, new orders versus production
12:06 pm
that's going to be an indication of the critical question where inflation is going and what the fed will do. you cannot answer those questions until you get more data, particularly for may, so the pce friday was the last reading for april. we need may's readings, and we get that next week with cpi. until then we can't answer whether this is a bear market rally or bounce off a corrective bottom because we don't know what the fed will do. >> mike wilson calls it a bear market rally hard to argue for more than bear market rally he says, if you carry another 5%, s&p 500 could rise to 4300 before falling back to 3400 by end of second quarter earnings season in miss ad augut josh, where do you stand >> i thought you forgot about me. >> how can i forget about you with beautiful flowers in the
12:07 pm
background. >> i am doing candy crush, waiting for my turn. guys, it is a bear market rally. we have seen many of these before we went down seven weeks in the s&p 500. we probably should have bounced after six. so what we saw, action we saw friday and a little thursday makes sense. hard to time when all of a sudden that kind of thing will happen, but it is not natural for stocks to drop 20% on no news because other stocks are dropping but you do see that in bear markets. there doesn't have to be news flow, rhyme and reason we are out of earnings season. now there's like a vacuum. i will tell you, i think the catalyst that could keep the rally going is not very far from now. in the recovery of the last bear market, the first friday of every month we used to be glued to the screen every first friday
12:08 pm
of each month for the unemployment numbers, bls, nonfarm payroll. that was the biggest market moving announcement every month and we all knew the estimates and we all knew who was high consensus, who was low, and followed that religiously. and it moved the market to a great degree that report doesn't matter any more we treated covid reports the same way, every week, what's the latest who is infected. now what we're glued to is monthly cpi and to a slightly lesser extent ppi. cpi comes out june 10th. the estimate is for 8.1% according to consensus of wall street economists and analysts if we print 7.5, 7.6, the market is going to explode to the up side 8.1, 8.2, probably we roll lower. but if you're a trader, somebody
12:09 pm
trying to figure out what do i want to do short term, that's the thing that's going to happen now, post earnings if you're an investor, it is important that you not spend a ton of time thinking about that kind of thing, understanding we're in a bear market and that the rallies will come. your job is to look at your portfolio and ask yourself what positions am i in that are not suited for an environment in which liquidity becomes scarce and companies have more difficulty not less rolling debt or raising equity capital. look at the portfolio if you have any metaverse trash, get rid of it, it is not going to work now if you have the types of companies with high debt and inability to pass on higher costs to consumers, get rid of it it is not going to work. use these bear market rallies to reposition what should you be buying? companies that are paying dividends 50 years, they're going to work. sometimes all that means is they
12:10 pm
go down less than the market, but that's okay. look for companies with pricing power. real estate investment trusts, outside of office. these companies have the ability to raise prices on tenants these are the types of things that work inflation. small cap value. understand where we are, take the rallies, use them, and don't confuse yourself if you're a long term investor, don't try to play bounces an act like you're a trader you're not doing this full time, you're not built for this. if you keep your head about you that way, you'll be just fine. >> by the way, you were doing candy crush, steph doing wordle. i was listening to you, josh and the point about the debt costs, cost of service for debt laden companies, companies that
12:11 pm
won't be able to access or tap capital markets, jim, do you think the market has gone as far as to price all of that in, there could be difficulty for those types of companies which could have a knock out effect? >> i want to segue or rif off what josh said, which i think is absolutely true, which is to say this why bother with a company that has capital needs in the short term when i say why bother, look at stocks that are great high quality companies, not just dividend payers, but got clobbered. why not pick up apple on the cheap, google at 20 times earnings i don't particularly like meta, but trades 17 times earnings my point being, lot of times investors say i am going into the small cap realm, that's where the bigger bang andretur on the dollars are, to which i say there are so many high quality fortune 100 companies trading so far off the high now,
12:12 pm
why do you have to take the chance of a small cap company that may need to roll over a debt or refinance debt if and when liquidity does dry up as josh alluded to. this is a time you can hit the easy button, go with large cap growth or value and feel comfortable about the prices you're paying. >> some at home think i saw walmart decline by a fifth in market cap in a single day, not feeling too good about the market. >> you know what, how many names can we come up with off 75%. whether it is teledoc, zoom, peloton. they don't earn the cost of capital. why bother >> bring in mike santoli for a look at the recent rally mike >> wouldn't dispute the idea that the bears retain benefit of the doubt, therefore you have to be a little skeptical of the staying power of any rally
12:13 pm
but if you look at the tale of the tape, mechanics of the rally, it did rack up style points what i mean, wednesday through friday, three days in a row, you had overwhelming skew, advancing volume was at least more than 80% of overall new york stock exchange only happened a dozen times in the last 50 years. up 6% mid week also did it in march no magic in the short term historically has good implications you go out 3, 6, 12 months, when it doesn't work, 2000, 2008 and 9, if we get up another -- i would look at it, you want to talk about josh being a long term investor, at
12:14 pm
3800, 3810 inter day, you're a little over 16 times forward earnings who knows if the earnings hold up so far they have are we going to have to get much below that unclear. the equal weighted is 15.2 times forward earnings why? huge stocks are expensive relative to the overall market you're in a neutral zone for valuation. big call is recession or no, how tight the fed has to get we're in suspense two months i don't think the rally did anything to detract the idea that you can consider 3800 a reference point as a long term investor when it is not the worst place to get back in if oversold, if in fact we get back there. >> josh, you wanted to comment >> michael makes a good point. it is too early to completely invalidate last week's rally if you think about why bear markets are so frustrating, it is because of things like last week's rally
12:15 pm
my colleague at his excellent blog of dollars and data did a look at the last four bear markets and how many double digit rallies there were on the way to the ultimate lows if you think this tech wreck that we experienced and valuation crash that we experienced in the last six months looks at all reminiscent of 2000 and 2001, which is more accurate than the '70s, understand we had six distinct separate double digit rallies during that bear market and each one of those was so crushing because you get hopeful and say i am going to get back to even, look, things aren't that bad after all. you had a 15, a 10, a 20 fourth one was 29% after 9/11 into january '02 then 18%, then 21%
12:16 pm
lower lows resulted after each one of those i really want people not to try to predict what's coming next but try to control your own emotions when we have a huge week like last week, try not to say okay, i'm going back to what i used to do, it is going to work again it probably isn't. statistically. probably not going to work again. >> obviously i would never say let your emotions get the best of you, so don't control them. what i will say, if your study set, things you look at are bear markets that went down by half, then of course all the rallies are shown to have failed we also have weird instances, and multiple of them, we keep talking about, when the market almost went down 20%, and didn't go further my point, if it is your foregone conclusion it is 2000 all over again, play the bear market play book i don't know better than that. maybe that's the way it goes
12:17 pm
microsoft was at 60 times earnings then, 35 times now. do we still have as much air under the market as we did, i don't know the point is, it is eye of the beholder stuff when it comes down to it i am willing to say it is a down trend. we haven't reversed anything burden of proof is on the bulls. i am trying to be agnostic and cognizant how this could unfold. >> good to see you mike santoli get the technical take jonathan krenski is with us. you think we're in a zone now. i want to pick up on the notion of what the time period is comparable to. you actually single out a couple periods you think it is comparable, 2000 and 2008. in those instances, market participants suffered. weak markets were longer than we've seen so far. >> we're not saying we are in 2000 or 2008, we're saying kind
12:18 pm
of to mike santoli's point, if we are, what do the play books look like. one of the things we know in the last couple weeks into the lows, lot of questions why is the vix unable to get above 35 or touch 40 and two bear markets in 2000 took 18 months and event shock of 9/11 before the vix hit 40 in 2008, took 11 months and lehman brothers to have the vix hit 40 we are five months in on the s&p 500. our thought at this point is that we are in summertime chop probably got too pessimistic at the lows in may. we think it will take chop to unwind positioning and sentiment. ultimately don't think the down trend is over. we think again, too early to get a final event shock
12:19 pm
capitulation. >> thanks for your take. up next, communication services, one of the worst performing sectors, meta, netflix and disney, why the group may be set for a turnaround half time is back in two minutes.
12:20 pm
(vo) everyone knows to get wireless savings, you need to be on a family pla- ...oh... (jane) with visible, i get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) i guess i spoke too soon. visible. single-line, unlimited data as low as $25 a month. this is xfinity rewards. our way of saying thanks, with rewards for the whole family!
12:21 pm
from epic trips... to jurassic-themed at-home activities. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and don't miss jurassic world:dominion in theaters june 10th. . a check of the markets major indexes slashing earlier
12:22 pm
losses we're in the red slightly. s&p 500 down 16 points, nasdaq down 18. standard yield 2.851 we have a new call on the struggling communications, services sector. you think it is poised for a huge turnaround. why? >> we do, melissa, thank you for having us. great to see you a couple of things first off, we think it is the quintessential barbell sector. one side you have the google machine, netflix machine, on the other side you have deep value names that traditional telecom stocks like now, what at&t has become again, given did i vestity tur and horizon in a market seeking value and seeking growth at a reasonable price, we think the sector is a perfect contrarian call. why is it contrarian
12:23 pm
most investors throw communication services into big tech and they're not i think from a theme perspective, we call it the three cs of communication services content, cash, cannibalism we think we'll see business combinations within the sector the sector has alot of cash, driven by content. we like the sector from a yield perspective, meaning at&t and verizon. for contrarian perspective, in terms of adding to netflix now that it is beaten down and farmer jim was talking google as potential value name, we liked the name we liked the sector from longer term perspective >> i'm going to farmer jim brian was mentioning a barbell within the sector. i think it is a hodge podge of names. the bulk of it at the end of the day is meta and google as you point out. >> and brian, that's the question first off, i agree with the
12:24 pm
call i simplify it. almost half the index is google and facebook or meta everything else will be dragged along in the index with those two names. google is 20 times this year's earnings facebook is 17 times why not. my question to you, isn't it even simpler than what you are saying and it is about alphabet and meta >> no. it actually isn't. nice to see you, jim we sold facebook/meta three years ago, put money in from the growth side of communication services into netflix and google i think what you want to do, jim, is take your meta money, put it into at&t and verizon because of value and strong dividend growth. at&t is going to start cranking up dividends again josh talked earlier about the a aristocrats. i think you want to be in income and income growth. the markets recovered but it
12:25 pm
isn't going to last forever. i think it will be a back and forth value oriented market and i believe based on comments we have with questions and comments with clients around the world is that i think most institutional investors aren't in at&t and verizon. i think there's a great opportunity there. >> steph, you have been adding to your meta position. and google is looking interesting to you at this point? >> yeah. i have been adding -- sorry. >> go ahead, steph >> me? okay sorry. no, i have been adding to facebook and meta in the last couple of weeks and i have been wrong so far for sure. down 43% year to date, not proud of that, but it is a value to me if brian is talking about focusing more on value versus growth, here is quality on sale. 14.4 times forward estimates, 9
12:26 pm
times that's compelling. they're going to fix reels, have a boat load of cash and have buy back what brian didn't mention, you have to find companies with easy comparisons. starting second half of the year facebook does. i was looking at it, i was getting greedy, i would like to get it at $2,000 or so, especially after the snap, digital advertising slowing down and the only thing that bothers me about google, alphabet, there are 100 sell side buys on the stock. that's a consensus long. wrapping it up, i agree with brian. sounds to me you're focused on value versus growth within com services i am just playing it a different way. >> joe, uh-oh alphabet
12:27 pm
what does it take to get this to bounce again >> i think you have to have a mean reversion leader to laggard rotation which we have not had yet in 2022. so you have to have money that will come out of the leading sectors and go into sectors like communication services and consumer discretionary i am not dismissing that i think that will happen at some point because we haven't experienced that i think that would be the catalyst >> brian, good to see you. thank you. >> nice to see you still ahead, price targets are lowered on internet stocks with committee ownership we'll take that in the call of the day next before the break, a check of the s&p sector heat map. real estate, health care in the laggards there and we have e p ths&500 just about flat on the negative side. stay tuned you're watching half time.
12:28 pm
♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world.
12:29 pm
it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. ♪ ♪ women have to overcome more obstacles to reach the top. it's made them fiercely determined and more innovative. just because they can navigate the obstacles doesn't mean they should have to. citi is committed to investing in opportunities for 10 million women globally by 2025.
12:30 pm
♪ ♪ blue had a baby. that's impossible. for 10 million women globally by 2025. aida is pretty special. we needed her to help us fix a terrible mistake. is that a dinosaur on your sholder? yeah. why? welcome back to half time. jeffrey lowering the price call on internet stocks saemz, expedia, uber and more. josh, you have two of these, amazon and uber.
12:31 pm
>> yeah. amazon looks good relative to the rest of the market only because there's a split coming up june 3rd which is friday. if you talk to a lot of retail investors who are excited about the split, it is a big one, 20 for 1. i think that helped the stock recently but this has just been absolutely annihilated already so has uber which leads me to ask the question, did we miss the storm, another storm we're in the storm i'm not sure exactly why all the negatives that are already in the stocks need to specifically get worse or have price option get specifically worse i'm not convinced. >> the thrust of it sounds like the analyst is trying to adjust estimates for what he is seeing as softening macro conditions. that's a question for the overall markets. have we rerated on earnings. mike santoli talking about the
12:32 pm
market being 16 or something is that neutral? is that under value? where are we, what is that in the eye of the beholder at this point. >> absolutely. all depends what the e will be if the macro is slowing, do you think the companies can deliver. so far earnings held up. went from 21.4 forward estimates on the s&p 500 in january to about 17 can we go to 16, can we go to 15 long term average is 15. certainly we can overshoot on the internet stocks there are some great companies now that are down so much josh, did we miss something? i mean seriously, expedia down 29%. they beat in the quarter their bookings numbers rose 10% versus 2019 levels and up 20 times, 20 points since january the business is absolutely getting better, visibility is
12:33 pm
strong they have bloated costs in the company and so to me, it goes down every day i think there's value there thts a market that wants dividends and the at&ts of the world i like the long term fundamentals >> josh. >> i'm sorry set aside candy crush for a minute. >> i did the macro is slowing delivery. this is the point. if there is a macro slowing, the question to ask, does amazon web services take more share >> that's a growth at all cost
12:34 pm
>> no, it isn't. it is not growth at all cost one of the things plaguing amazon stock and uber stock is concern about higher labor costs, higher input costs, supply chain that can't meet demand if you get macro slowing, that's what cleans those things up. you're not going to have that problem of a too tight labor market if you sun stangsly slow the economy. i am not saying it is great to have a slower economy, i am saying it puts less pressure on the cost structures of the companies which is one of the reasons the stocks are selling off to begin with. >> and this is the poetry, goes back to glass half full, glass half empty, you slow the economy down and labor force gets worse and the consumer doesn't spend on amazon. it goes full circle.
12:35 pm
>> look, that's absolutely right. when you raised that point earlier, i said it is all about sentiment, what people believe is going to happen either they are fearful of recession and that's why they are selling not only ub eer or h airlines, or if you're bullish, you think it is a mid cycle growth slow downs. before everybody argues, we won't know until we look in the rearview mirror, if it is growth slowdown, it will accelerate into 2023, all these stocks and others i mentioned will do just fine you as an investor need to make up your mind, do your analysis about what you think is happening big picture. i am bullish. >> joe, want to go to you. in my notes, it is an interesting comment from technical perspective, i'm in a bad position with amazon what do you mean by that >> on april 1st i bought at
12:36 pm
3275 can you pick a worse buy, down 35% on the stock i could make any fundamental assertion regarding what i think will happen. it was also added at the end of april. i am sitting with my hands tied until the next rebalance hopefully the market experiences what i said to brian bell ski before, get a form of mean reversion and a lot of stocks in a bear market which amazon certainly is are beneficiaries of that, then reduce the position awful call on my part, bad buy stuck in a bad position. it happens. get the headlines with leslie picker. >> here's the cnbc news update fire fighting crews making progress against the largest active wildfire in mexico, in new mexico, improved weather conditions are helping after high winds and low humidity hampered efforts over the weekend. the eight week old fire is the
12:37 pm
largest such blaze in new mexico's recorded history. the white house plans to send a guided rocket system to ukraine that would allow targets to be hit from more than 40 miles away, according to u.s. officials that spoke to "the wall street journal. the weapons currently used have half that range. ukraine has been asking for longer range weapons as it defends against russian attacks in the eastern part of the country. french food giant will send 5 million bottles of infant formula in the next few weeks. this is designed for babies with allergies and is in short supply amid the overall shortage. 2 to 5% are allergic to cow's lk a need that specialty formula. halftime report will return after this
12:38 pm
only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your goals are ours too. and vanguard retirement tools and advice can help you get there. that's the value of ownership. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim.
12:39 pm
she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade
12:40 pm
oil prices jumping after leaders agree to ban most russian crude imports. energy one of the sectors in the green, 20% this month, up more than 60% this year joe, i will go to you. how are you liking energy around here what this tells me is china is easing covid lockdown and the eu will ban most russian oil.
12:41 pm
sounds like higher oil prices will be sticky >> pretty bullish when you hear both those conditions. i do think in terms of allocating money to the various sectors, looking at energy now, which i am carrying and overweight in, you're kind of at the ceiling. i don't think you could throw more money at the energy sector from a risk to reward perspective, understanding where the fundamentals are i think you have to maintain allocations and be mindful of the ability to be nimble to begin to pair back the next move is to reduce overall allocation at some point, the energy market will get some good news, whether it is a welcomed resolution to the russia/ukraine conflict or as i said at the top of the show, the china tariffs are out
12:42 pm
there in july. we have to respond to the necessity of them being extended and if president biden and the administration does anything in terms of relaxing or offering exemptions, that's going to bring down inflation and will bring down the commodity picture as well. >> i have a hard time, this is just me, even if russia/ukraine had a cease-fire, i don't know how many bans on russian oil will be lifted after what vladimir putin did stuff you own names that bark lay raised prices. chevron. you own chevron of the two >> yeah. so i am doubling the bench mark, planning on staying double any dips on the buyer. the reason is these companies have pricing power and huge free cash flow situation and they keep raising dividends and buying back stock. chevron, people think they
12:43 pm
guided 2 to 3 billion in buy backs. the ceo said anything north of 75 oil, he is going to continue to buy back stock. good chance chevron could buy back as much as 4 to $5 billion in their stock the yield is pretty good, not like it used to be, 3.2% is pretty good, trades 11 times earnings strong, high quality company i barbell that with slumber jay, that's allowing them to -- pricing power, they have it in spades they continue to do the same in terms of buying back, announce a special dividend and have good assets as well barbelling it, looking at weakness to buy. these companies mint cash north of 75. >> fin tech stocks underperforming the broader market, there were a fewairs gne this month the trade is next on half time how's he still playin'?
12:44 pm
aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength. reduces inflammation. don't touch my piano. kick pain in the aspercreme. (vo) everyone knows to get wireless savings, you need to be on a family pla- ...oh... don't touch my piano. (jane) with visible, i get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) i guess i spoke too soon. visible. single-line, unlimited data as low as $25 a month. esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,
12:45 pm
with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.
12:46 pm
your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire fin tech has been crushed first half of the year, some names are crawling their way back kate rooney has more. >> there were fin tech winners in may sofi was the outperformer, followed by robinhood. year to date, the charts are not looking as good. the firms and stocks are still down more than 50% affirm down most of those. coinbase was the biggest laggard
12:47 pm
as crypto prices got crushed jmp securities ransom screens on more than 100 fin tech names looking at cash, debt levels and growth and shortages first, talk cash relative to market cap top of the list, root, robinhood, bakkt calling this a good starting point for value and lets companies go on the offense. they rank the most attractive valuations based on earnings projections and growth, calling out names like nerd wallet, upstart, lending tree and rocket, expecting double digit earnings growth. and shares on the chart deeply in the red finally, short interest. upstart, lemonade, sofi, bakkt, all on the high end of list of sentiment changes. you could see shorts having to cover positions, that could spark a rally. melissa, back to you >> kate, thank you let's get to fin tech names. josh, these names sound like the
12:48 pm
kinds of names you all don't want to own in this market environment. >> none of them are actually disruptive some exploit legal loopholes and doing things that larger financial companies would never do because they have lawyers some of them are basically subsidizing free services using venture capital money, and there's a limit in terms of length of time you can get away with doing that. at a certain point, backers want you to make money or they get out. we have seen it in the private market i don't know if people are aware, there was a company wealth front that was supposed to disrupt financial advisory, close to home for me they sold themselves to ubs. the fin tech, quote, unquote revolution, has been substantially overplayed they can buy as many stadium sponsorships as they want. in the end, if the economy gets more treacherous, credit
12:49 pm
conditions continue to tighten, it will be the companies like bank of america and jpmorgan, charles schwab spending huge money on innovation of their own that are going to win out and a lot of the so-called disrupp tors end up as zeros or lunch meat for the m and a market. i think it is important people understand great ideas are not the same as great businesses. >> jim, why did you dump paypal friday >> the risk reward in paypal and the whole space skewed in the wrong direction, keys off what joshua saying. i will phrase it this way. why make life hard now there's a gale blowing in the markets, we are diving off a high board why do triple lending. dive into the water meaning go with the big money center banks, a lot of them trading below book value, cash flows that support buying back shares and dividends. if i look at citi, jpmorgan,
12:50 pm
goldman, sachs, return potential that this is just a growth slowdown, the economy will reaccelerate, return potential in those names is quite high on the down side, there's protection in cash flows the so-called disruptive fin tech triple d ncmeanluh at all in one block. amazing show here. >> how you should be trading the dow stock next miss allen over there isn't checking lesson plans. she's getting graded on her green investments with merrill. a-plus. still got it. (whistle blows)
12:51 pm
your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
12:52 pm
12:53 pm
back to earnings after the bell, starting with sales force. >> i like this company i like it a a lot. we are where we are in the markets right now. a high multiple like this is not likely to be rewarded, how good their earnings are for the next few years, i see what this company is doing it's fabulous. so, i'm not going to get caught up with today's report and how it reacts. this is a long--term hold. >> josh, you own this one? >> i do. the stocks has rallied back
12:54 pm
nicely off the lows but annihilated with the growth trade. i donot think tht you're going to get the type of earnings report that's typically meaningful past more than a day or so. i would not look at this more than an investment catalogue so to speak long term, i think they're better positioned then any other stand-alone company for more cars becoming electric this is not gas stations this is fleet equipment. so, they're doing the charging at hotels and starbucksb with etc. i'm sticking with it but not excited for whatever tonight's response is to the tod's numbers. >> i aate the honesty. joe, salesforce looks interesting, soon, what has to happen >> it does i think you've got to have the type of guidance that would get
12:55 pm
an investor, who has not yet invested in the company, interested in boiing it. i will be listening intently to the call i wunt to hear the tone they set as woe move forward in the coming quarters and thereafter, it exhibits the confidence >> and sort of this broader sector >> i mean, they have a partnership with salesforce and it's been successful for them. so, i like that one and i will continue to add to it. it's a turn-around story you know the acquisition they made and they just have real etough comparisons. and they have the best quarter ever in the company's history last quarter i think that's going to be tough to compete it's on my rayder but i'm more inclined to by if it was more in
12:56 pm
loin with the salesforce numbers. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.
12:57 pm
(fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers for smarter trading decisions, are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. what if you were a global energy company?
12:58 pm
with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world. don't 5:00 eastern for fs mun ea ole talk about the latest call
12:59 pm
on assisting a bear market ral ea and why earnings revisions are his focus right now. let's get to the final trades. why don't you kick us off. >> wells fargo yields about 2% one of the most sensitive to rate rises saw 50-basis increase in the fund could be 50% to the earning and 7% to the interest income. and doing good jock improving the fronts a well. i think it's $6 of earnings power. i loik it. >> paramount i saw the movie "top gun". i thought it was fabulous. but besides that, this is the fifth number one move ea they've had this your. they keep exceeding their strength, subscriber counts. everything is going right at paramount and finally starting to get the respect it deserves i just watched "top gun" yesterday.
1:00 pm
now i'm ready for "maverick. >> i saw it in the theater i agree. the company been around since after the civil war. been paying a dividend for 82 years. this is the kind of stock i want to be in for the second half of the your >> energy i'm not in overweight and i'm overweight for agriculture. a adm. >> "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ ♪ thank you, melissa hi, everybody and welcome to "the exchange. and the big event this hour, fed chair powell, as president biden pushes his own plan to bring prices down. with ilit result in more hawkish fed than markets current hey expect and oil jumping again today, hitting $118 barrel as a gasoline fut

30 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on