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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 3, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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handle that from the fed >> it kind of told us. it has done a good job telegraphing we will have to see if the environment remains as such where they don't have to do more than they told us they might we will see how it all unfolds see you tonight. have a good weekend. mike santoli joining us with his last word. have a great weekend "fast money" begins now. now on fast, a stern warn from cleveland fed where do we go from here we will ask the traders. plus,apple's brutal spring down more than 15% in the last two months the chart master is in the house to take us into the numbers ahead of next week's big developer's conference later, amazon's 20 for 1 stock split set to take effect what will the move have on the options for the tech giants. i'm melissa lee in the heart of times square tim see more, courtney garcia, guy adami.
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and we start today with a stocks live to close out the week the dow shedding 300 points while the nasdaq dropped nearly 2.5% the losses pushing the major indices into the red for the week the economy adding 390,000 jobs in may, more than the 323,000 expected and that fuelled speculation the fed may have to be more aggressive with its rate hikes. cleveland fed president weighing in on the policy backdrop on cnbc today >> i don't see a hurricane, but we have to realize that the risk of a recession have gone up. >> meanwhile, elon musk warning that tesla could cut 10% of its workforce amid a super bad feeling. those are his words, about the economy. so could there be more pain to come was this the correct interpretation of these three data points today, tim >> i think it was just a reiteration of the fed that has to be data dependent, has
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reiterated also that they're going to be in play at the next three meetings what happens kwond that we don't know the payroll number was disturbing for market bulls if you think that positive news on the economy is bearish it has been a week where we've really been -- i think the market's fortunes rested on that less so. it has been top down as opposed to bottom up or companies telling us something outside of job cuts, et cetera, a little more chorus there. the participation rate in terms of people actually looking for jobs actually went up last month. that kept the unemployment rate, which is the sexy thing to look at although it is not what the fed needs to be looking at from going down in other words unemployment is actually to me the trend is, i think, over the next couple of months the fed will be staring at a job market that gets tighter. i think it is not going to help markets, you know, on top of fed governors that have to come out, voting members of the fed, and reiterate the fed is committed because no one believed them until the last month >> one might feel pretty good at this moment in time we're not at the door of a recession. a recession isn't imminent, but it begs the question if the fed
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then has to go harder will that then drive us into the recession because the pendulum swings one way and theoretically it would swing the other way too, courtney >> i think what we have to look at here too is we are hearing negative news. elon musk is saying a super bad feeling on the economy, but you are getting really for every negative news you get a positive on the other side, right they're trying to cut their employees right now, but on the flip side you have gm who actually will be increasing employees and they're facing the same headwinds the same thing, jpmorgan came out and they're seeing a hurricane, but ban seeing thing strong they're spending because they want to get out an and choose which data point you see and that's why the markets can't figure out which direction to go here i don't think a recession is imminent i think there are positive signs here and the headlines are not grasping that but there is some positive news. >> so you think we are okay?
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>> i think we can be i don't think recession is a base case by any means >> what do you see, guy. it sound like it is in the eye of the beholder kind of market here >> as it typically is, mel as it typically is, which doesn't work well for me i will say this, not being an economist, i can't tell you if we're in recession, going to have one i don't really think for the sake of the conversations we have about the market it necessarily matters because i'm one of the belief that a market sell-off causes a recession and i do think the market will go lower. i will say this, and i'm sure you talked about it earl earlier in the week, jamie dimon didn't pull the word hurricane out of his hat, it is obviously a word he chose to see. loretta mester can say what she wants about not seeing the hurricane. she may be in the eye of one and not able to see it i think brian moynihan at the bank of america is a different circumstance i'm inclined to believe jamie dimon. in terms of the numbers they're good numbers, but to jim's point
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i think good numbers are not good for the market. >> it could be cat one or super storm sandy, so you cover the basis when it comes to the severity of the hurricane about to hit the economy, pete maybe it is fair we don't need to necessarily know if there's a recession on tap, but if businesses believe things are going to be tough and the consumer is going to start girding and battening down their hatches. >> whoa, nice work >> i mean we're using hurricane, so you might as well continue with this tonight. then that, in fact, causes a slowdown which the markets may not have priced in yet >> well, i think, mel, more importantly than anything is i think this is very industry specific when i say that, i mean technology stocks. if you go through list of who is doing some of the cutting, it is almost all tech or somehow related to tech. fintech, whatever it might be. but i mean that i think is what is explaining this very clearly right now. it is not everything it is specifically tech. when you look at that, what am i
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saying i'm saying, well, people are looking at this, they're expecting the rate hikes to continue to go to the upside they get a little bit nervous about some of the tech names and they start selling those when you look today, look at discrepancy today. even though both were down, the dow and the nasdaq, nasdaq was down 2.5% and that's been fairly consistently getting beat up on days where we go down. it is the nasdaq that is doubling up. so i think it is something to keep in mind i think you have also got to keep in mind the fact that because of what's been going on with earnings and revenue and cutting back and maybe the growth is starting to slow especially at a lot of the tech names, that's why we're seeing i think the tech names taking it the worst right now. i think that will continue if this continues and we continue to have the talk about a potential hurricane. >> you know, specifically for technology, we had tesla, which we talked about, we hadearlier this week -- or yesterday microsoft and its revenue cut in terms of its forecast because of 4x and we have, of course, morgan stanley's katy huberty's
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saying apple's service revenue may slow because of the app slowdown if tech is the real source of the pain, tim, can we actually relatively emerge unscathed? >> well, i think the tech companies are certainly more inflation proof than a lot of the industrial companies, and certainly a lot of the international companies which tech certainly can fit in that basket microsoft i think is 57% international revenues but i guess part of this is a market dynamic, too. we talked all the time about the leadership of tech i still don't think we possibly remarked where the stocks need to go. i said i want to see 125 on apple which really equates to an s&p that i think is around 3,800. i think it has underperformed. the fact that you also this week in addition to this week for big cap tech, we heard amazon making major changes in c-suite we heard about facebook making major changes in c-suite we have seen a lot of companies not sitting stel for reasons already in process or from a sense this is the time i think ceos are patted on the
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back for talking about cost savings right now. for talking about we're going to reel in growth at all costs. this headline we will hear over and over again, but big tech has not warned on demand yet microsoft didn't say anything about their demand >> no. >> they talked about fx. they talked about translation of foreign currency into dollars equals less if it is foreign currency he. that's all they mentioned. apple talked about supply disruption >> you see the glass half empty when it comes to microsoft because you are saying the fact they didn't talk about demand is actually a bad thing because you think microsoft will have another shoe to drop when they talk about demand maybe when they report next quarter >> i'm a little half empty and a little half full in terms of the market and overall i think we priced in 75% of a recession when we got to the lows at 3,800 on the s&p i think if we don't get a recession there's a lot of room for cyclicality. i think there's a lot of defensive stocks that are well over their skis in terms of valuations and it will be time to actually get out of the way on some of those if we get some sense that recession is not near term i don't know when we will get
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that all buy-in signal i hate to be half empty on everything here. >> yeah. >> i don't like tech companies that haven't given us a sense that their business is changing. >> let me go to you, pete, because i think you love microsoft, i think you do still love it now. >> yeah. >> did you think it was negative they didn't talk about demand? do you want to hear them talk about slowing demand or was it good they filed with the sec and didn't mention a slowdown? you would think if they saw anything that would be the time to say something >> totally agree i think that would be the time, and that's something they did avoid. they talked about the fx, as tim points out, but they might not be seeing it yet, mel. that might just be the reality of where we are. we know there are certain specific areas within different parts of tech. apple obviously with huberty talking about the services, that's an issue, the app store a little slower and that type of thing. so that is something very direct but when we heard from microsoft, they very easily could have said, hey, look, this is fx and, oh, by the way, we are seeing a little bit of a slowdown maybe in our demand for
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cloud products and so forth. that is not something we heard i think satya nadella has done a great job since the day he became ceo of being very, very up front, very transparent, and i think that would have been the opportunity. so maybe it is possible that microsoft is not seeing that right now. others might be, but maybe it is not specific, especially when you look at what we heard from the chip stocks and where certain areas were still very, very strong and some of the weakness as well but when we got through that, i think that actually did bode well for apple, for other names in the industry and, you know, microsoft as well. so i don't think -- i'm not as nervous about it right now it could pop up, but as of right now i trust what they're telling us at microsoft. >> let's talk about another tech giant now. apple dropping nearly 4% today, a big move ahead of its developer conference which kicks off monday where does the stock headfrom here more from the chart master who is here in studio. he dusted off the old illustrator which has not been
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used for two-plus years. >> nice. >> of course we are talking about carter worth of worth charting carter >> literally, look at this beauty more fun than sitting at a pc or laptop drawing lines >> give it a hug >> apple, what i thought we would start with is a chart that depicts really how ordinary what is going on is so this is only going back to 2018 you can see, and we're going to sort of make big circles here. in 2018 we had a 39% decline, and then there's covid, down 35%. then at the end of '20 we drop 25% and then here we are, call that 30% in and of itself, call it garden variety. if you look at a comparative chart over the last two years it might be an issue for a certain segment of the investor population we have three lines that are clear, bleooun blue, green and
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orange apple is still elevated to peers, qqq or the s&p. let's drill down and look at apple and try to figure out where it might be day to day here is a chart with no drawings, no an notation goes, no judgment. let's put in lines i would first point out this has the element of a minor head and shoulders bottom a very well documented formation which has implications that if and as this is resolved, just as you have this very quick downdraft, you get a similar and reciprocal up draft. the final chart, it has an arrow. i think that's exactly what is coming i think apple throws back a little bit more and completes the formation, and ultimately what this is we are going to get up to where the overhead supply really start my hunch is whatever news is coming next week, it is going to be good or bad, irrelevant that the market in case of apple will react well >> do you see a commensurate bounce for the overall nasdaq,
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carter >> the bounce is well under way, right. this is the third sort of bounce since the peak in january, january 4. i think it has legs. >> all right carter, we will see you in a few minutes on "options action." meantime, courtney, do you like apple here >> i think some of the news on apple is more short lived. looking longer term, i think it is probably an opportunity to pick up some shares. >> guy, what do you make of carter's levels? >> i just -- the fact carter is back at the smart board after two years, i mean that's enough for me >> and you're not here >> he could have charted anything, i would have been just -- listen, that mini reverse head and shoulders he point out makes a lot of sense i mean you had that downdraft, 138. bounced up to 150-ish. subsequent downdraft, subsequent bounce stands to reason we will see another one here with that said though, i think tim's level -- and a couple of people pointed it out. if apple were to get to 125, i think it would coincide with the 3750 level i have been waiting for on the s&p 500
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>> all right coming up, boeing's ceo trying to reassure investors after a slew of struggles but will he be able to get shares to bounce higher. on the eve of amazon's split taking effect, what ask the question what's the impact more "fast money" in two
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welcome back to "fast money. dave calhoun speaking at a conference this morning, trying to reassure shareholders after a number of deadly crashes and production missteps. >> i'm confident on the liquidity front. cash flow is getting better every quarter. brian described this as sort of a turning point year, and it is. i also believe that. i can't measure it week by week or month by month or even quarter by quarter but i know the year will be substantially better >> stock in the red today as investors seemed to not buy what calhoun was trying to sell boeing shares in free fall the past year, down almost 45% tim, what is your status with the stock? >> my status is i'm long boeing. i'm long it probably somewhere around the 250 level so well under water. it is a company that i think will re-emerge into a cash flow machine, except for it is not
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tomorrow in fact, they're having to fend off actually, there will be no equity raise concern from the market they're falling well behind airbus in terms of a narrow body jet liner. that was the other commentary. they made it clear there's probably nothing coming in the next year and a half the whole catalyst here has been the airline industry getting back on its feet essentially the max 37 and china and getting back on board and getting some of the orders filled i think it is enough for the story to take back above if you look at the charts, i think up to 175, you know, this stock still is in a down trend, and i think we need to break through that >> yeah, they've got nothing, the stock got nothing from the idea the economy is reopening, airplanes are filling up and people are demanding to travel, courtney >> yeah, which fascinates me because we are seeing positive news out of the airlines and the demand towards travel is exceedingly improving despite the fact inflation is kicking in arguably that's one of the
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biggest risks for the industry is that the fuel is increasing it could well help boeing because ultimately you have issues from boeing and airbus. i'm with tim, i think it is a longer term play but i think it will catch up to it. >> guy, what is your take? >> well, it is interesting i mean commercial airlines, everybody associates boeing with commercial air it is only a third of their revenue. they don't get any credit whatsoever for the aerospace defense and services business, which is the other 65% of the company. that's on boeing, by the way they've done a really miserable job of trying to sort of illustrate that and tell that story to the street, or maybe the street isnot listening i don't know i hear what courtney and tim are seaing, but i don't see any compelling reason to get involved in boeing they've had every opportunity, and every time it goes down it is a boeing-specific thing i'm inclined to wait this one out. >> yeah. pete, how about you? >> yeah, i'm matched up with guy on this one. you know, it is not a supply -- it is a supply issue it is not a demand issue
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they have the demand they just have to be able to get it out there they've not been able to execute on that side of things they did say they don't need to raise capital. that's great they're starting to see cash flow that's great but, mel, the reality is they've got to get things out and the demand is there for it, but they're just unable to do that until they can, i think you got to wait on the sidelines because i think people will still be very frustrated and be waiting for the company to really show that they can be that company that they once were, because they certainly haven't looked like the old boeing over the last year and a half or two years. all right. coming up, shares of amazon snapping a six-day winning streak in a big way today and ahead of the big stock split coming on monday should you be buying in. we will get answers. later on "options action" are shares of starbucks ready to perk up? why the chart master says he is a yeno reight after this. ♪ (sha bop sha bop) ♪ ♪ are the stars out tonight? (sha bop sha bop) ♪
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welcome back to "fast money. monday marks the start -- the start of trading after amazon stock split. first let's get to the companies added to the s&p 500 current dr. pepper, beachie properties and on semi are popping in after hour session. of course, as people have to mimic the index they will be adding to positions, selling the stocks coming out, tim do you have a commentary on any of these companies >> i tell you, sometimes you see some of this run up in advance if you look at the names in keurig, dr. pepper, if you consider the defensiveness of the sector over the last couple of months, i think they've priced in the news this is an exciting moment i don't no who was dropped but it is part of the other side of the coin
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>> let's talk about amazon 24 in stock split. that starts on monday. so many times on the show we talked about how it doesn't make a difference in terms of whether you own 1/20th of a share or whatever it is pete, it does make a different rents when it comes to the options trading. it makes it easier for individual investors in particular to get in on the action >> yeah. no doubt about it, mel everybody likes to say, well, you can buy it in fractions. first of all, that's a very, very, very small market, the fractions market on top of that, now if you are in a position now based upon this 20 for 1, all of a sudden you can buy 100 shares, now you can actually use options against those positions. you wouldn't have been able to do that with the fractions so i think that versus the restp
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is very, very clear. it is not exactly a perfect science, but it is pretty clear that the stocks do a lot better after they've come out of these splits a year out. >> once upon a time in aironmen guy, a company would announce a stock split, let's say tesla, and the stock would skyrocket on the notion that smaller investors can get -- >> or google >> google, alphabet that is, could get a piece of the, you know, stock. >> yeah. listen, i don't think those days are over i think pete just illustrated exactly what has been going on all along. i have been one of the old men, get off milan, people, in terms of stock splits that don't matter listen, clearly they do. the information is there
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anecdotally, and over the course of time it is there to say, you know, a stock split typically is good for the name. good for pete for illustrating it and explaining it in a way even i can understand. >> could pave the way for dow inclusion as well, not that the dow is extremely relevant these days, but, tim >> by the way, i bet guy's son is saying, old man, get out of my bedroom because i think that's where he is look, i think amazon got a decent -- right. i think it got a pretty decent run last week and into this week on that very news. in fact, if you look at amazon off the intraday lows on 24, i think the stock is up close to 24% before today's pull back i love this story. i like it closer to 2,000. it is time for the final trade for this friday. let's go around the horn pete najarian. >> i'm going to give you charge points, some monstrous activity in there, mel. i think it is going a lot higher >> guy adami >> i'm going to give you the, m. i know you are locked in, as you should be. >> yes, she is >> look at valero, sister!
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>> courtney garcia >> i'm really liking deere here. i think the agriculture story, not demand is going away and there's a lot of positives >> hockey season is so long, i have to say that so long, tim >> i hope it goes longer here in new york in the meantime buy some gold. i think it is everything that you need in this fed environment, gld >> that does it for us here on "fast money" tonight do not go anywhere "options action" is up after this quick break new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit and get started today.
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♪ it is friday, and that means it is type for "options action." i'm melissa lee joined by carter worth, mike co-and tony zhang. the dow, subpoenas and nasdaq cloeing lower for the day and the week the nasdaq dropping 2.5% crude notching the fifth straight week of gains the vast majority of indicators are stuck at a crossroads in terms of final direction carter, what did you make of the week >> if you think about it, it is kind of a benign week. if you take today away, we were up on the week everything was quite okay. one day doesn't really change anything if you were to look at the close in the vix, this wee


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