and the question is whether it accelerates or whether the overall macro environment puts a damper on it you can bet apple wants it to seem like the other stores, you don't have to unionize, you're going to get good stuff without giving away part of your salary. we'll see. >> markets continue to rally let's get to melissa lee and the half welcome to the halftime report melissa lee in for scott wapner. stocks rally after posting the worst week since march, 2020 stocks looking cheap, are they a buy? we will debate that and more with the investment committee. stephanie link, josh brown, john terranova, and let's check the markets. nice rally dow higher 1.7%. s&p 500 led by energy as well as discretionary. nasdaq showing the most strength in the session, up 2.75% semis in the nasdaq are up 3%

today. take a look at the ten year yield, 3.03% edged higher from friday start it off here. stephanie, it is a very different picture than last week do you buy this? >> well, i think we are oversold, yes, but i think we'll continue to chop, melissa. we aren't out of the woods with regards to the fed and inflation, with regards to growth uncertainty you know i'm not in the camp of recession for 2022, but after last week and fed commentary which frankly was confusing at best, after their commentary, odds of recession for 2023 have gone higher. i think that's what the market is telling you it is a forward looking indicator. the key to me is going to be whether or not the fed can stay this aggressive or not, and interesting comments from bullard over the weekend, softer stance there kind of keep an eye out for commentary from him especially he has been a leading indicator.

it will be interesting to see if the markets can hold we have not been able to hold a rally all year for sustainable period of time and i think there's no need to chase. there's need to find quality and upgrade in the portfolio, which is what i have been doing the last several weeks then look at what companies are doing with shareholder value creation diamondback energy, another dividend increase. kellogg, mond lease, looking for growth that's positive. there's a host of other companies that have done the same things in terms of announcing splits, j and j, xpo. you want to look at those companies trying to figure out how to create shareholder value in macro uncertainty. >> dr. j, curious what you make of the rally people at home are hoping and praying we have seen the worst of it. the point is made repeatedly that we have not seen that sort of push to the down side, ka pit

lative puke out of stocks which would mean higher volume, spike in the vix, all those good things >> those aren't good things, melissa. those are bad things but you're right people are waiting for those bad things ka pit lative, first time i heard that, but i like it. i think, melissa, technical analyst aj monty thinks we'll see lower lows, and he puts up a video on youtube every week to that effect at market rebellion. he said this is last week we're going to see a rally sometime next week and it will be sold. so far today, melissa, you know pete and i talk about volume, volatility, velocity we are not seeing that volume. we need to see volume on an up day for a change i mean, today so far mid session right now, we are seeing about 20 million share option turnover

the average for the year is 41 million for the full day, we are at the halfway point i don't know if we'll make even the average. so last week when we had the big rally on wednesday, melissa, with the fed move, said that would be ripped up the next day, it was, and that was in the 30s. 36 million contracts that day. i think we have to see on a rally day something in the 45 to 50 million range to say okay, now you've got the shorts out. but right now, you don't you've got people that have cash on the sidelines just as steph said you don't have to chase. you can be patient i am being patient i piled out of a bunch of puts because of that woosh last week. then i started to load calls into the rally today because i don't think we get more than a day. i would be happy to be wrong, happy to see us keep going, i just don't think the momentum is there based on volume.

>> i don't know if wall street notes, josh brown, are a la carte menus you can pick and choose you look at a couple of these today, piece them together, goldman, sachs increasing odds of seeing recession cumulative over two years, 48%. mike wilson from morgan stanley saying the markets haven't fully priced in full blown recession if that were the case, we could get down to 3,000, 2900 specifically, josh right now, from where we are, that's quite a bit of down side. what do you think? >> i think we need to not pay a ton of attention to wall street strategist consensus expectations because they're usually wrong. this year they have been spectacularly wrong. they were looking for 2% at the high end for fed funds this year, lol. they were talking goldman, sachs

bitcoin, 100,000 as recently as december, january. we were hearing about s&p 500 targets ranging from 4800 to 5300 and then it is not their fault, it is impossible nobody had on their bingo card an invasion of the ukraine and the most expansive land war in europe in 70 years it is just not the kind of thing you can foresee, or the repeated lockdowns in china those two factors exacerbated headline volatility and inflation to the point where the fed had to go so far and beyond what anyone expected that we wind up in the situation we are in now this idea that all of a sudden we're going to get the year end stuff right, think about all of the things that can happen good and bad between now and end of the year let's not focus on that. let's focus on how oversold we were as prelude to figuring out

if the rally has legs. the s&p closed friday 16.9% below the 200 day moving average. not the worst we have seen covid was obviously worse, but that's pretty extended below that long term trend the percentage of stocks above their own 200 day moving average is 11.3% as of last week that's as washed out as you get. that's deeply oversold the vix up to 31.1 i talked about this all year when the vix crosses above 30, for god's sake, get bullish on something, right, at least short term put call .8 that's a high reading, not a historical extreme when you look at march 2020, 2018, 2010, 2008, 2009 we have seen worse consumer sentiment, 59.4, below the average back to 1990, 65.5

we have seen it more extreme 2008 and 2011. that can get worse when you take all those things and then think about some noneconomic marketdata points, like the fact that searches for recession on google are 33% higher than where they were at the peak of the covid crash, double what they were during lehman brothers in 2008. that's very, very, very scared money out there, and you say to yourself okay, this could be a pretty meaningful bottom doesn't have to be the final bottom i think it has some legs you surveyed three smart people whose opinions i appreciate. not one of them is telling you yeah, this is it i think that's the way a lot of people feel. maybe it doesn't have to be a one day wonder maybe it stretches to tomorrow, into the next day. i don't think you need to make a huge bet that it will, i think you have to be open to the possibility that maybe we rally.

i think we are in a bear market. been saying it since february. bear market rallies don't have to be one or two day affair. let's be open minded i bought stuff the last couple of weeks let's consider the possibility >> joe, have you been in if you look at some sectors that pulled back, some might say you wanted apple to be 135 it has seen 135 and south and back and forth the past couple weeks. if you wanted it 135 where it is now, here you are. it is a gift we're seeing some pretty big moves in today's session with alphabet and amazon and some of these big cap tech stocks that one time were stalwarts of portfolios >> well, i am still of the belief six to nine months we look back and view it as an opportunity. to answer your question am i in, of course, yes, i'm in i think in the moment now where we are, remember how deeply

oversold we are, when you look at price relative to the critical moving averages you're 9% below 50 13% below the 100. and 17% below the 200. where the market will go here over the next several weeks, i have been talking about this for months, really depends on president biden's administration and what they're going to do in terms of making a decision on tariffs. last week the federal reserve in the press conference basically turned in a sub limb nal message to fiscal policy, said we could raise rates, it is not bringing down headline inflation. they're basically calling out to the administration saying we needed some coordinated effort, we need some policies on your part to help and i think where we're going to be going the next several weeks hinges on the answer, the response to the review of necessity on president trump's

tariffs introduced summer of 2018, they expire july 6th president biden has to deliver an answer on that. and the perception of doing something i think will go a long way to improving sentiment i'm not saying if we relax or suspend tariffs or offer exemptions to companies importing chinese goods, and it will have immediate impact on inflation, it is probably not, but it is perception of taking sentiment which is so overwhelmingly pessimistic, reinstituting a degree of confidence and belief that there's some form of assistance out there that's targeting what the problem is, which is inflation, and there's an effort in that direction to ease it i think that's what's going to drive the market in the next several weeks and i think if he does it, markets will continue to rally. >> i think sentiment is perhaps the silver lining to this. the fact it has gotten so bearish now, the fact that

recession or stagflation, they're not concepts or words that are scoffed at as they were before now actually people are saying there's a chance and the chances are increasing at the same time, josh, the metrics of reasons why one could be bullish here, i wonder how you perceive that. how do you perceive, for instance, historic pe in context of today's market when it seems like everything about the circumstance we're in now was created by pendulum swinging so far to one side, such as easy money policy how do you say you know what, we should go back to average, historic average of the s&p of 16.5 >> well, we are at 15.5 now. started at 21.5 times. we have seen multiples contract and it is because of all of the things i talked about, the

unknowns with fed inflation, growth, et cetera. recession is more on the table for 2023 i still believe not for 2022 the jobs market is still very strong minus technology technology sector, you have to watch it that's where we have been seeing freezes, but they have been the beneficiary from stay at home. they're seeing mean reversion to some degree. overall, the job market is strong, carries momentum between now and end of the year. could we go to 14 or 13 times, could see see earnings ratcheted down, that's what strategists on the street are saying. they haven't yet lowered numbers, they will probably after second quarter we're about to get earnings. i think the markets are chopping around until we get earnings and hear what companies have to say. we really did lose confidence from the retailers, right? we lost after walmart and target tjx was the only one with good things to say.

they're doing initiative things. across the board it was disappointing. does that continue into next quarter, how much do numbers come down. that's when you get true pe of the market and have to see where it settles out meantime, if you're a long term investor, find free cash flow companies with number one and number two market share positions, excellent executive management teams and a bench and track record and margin, potential margin expansion or stability in margins that's the biggest question mark at this point in time. >> bring in mike santoli who is searching for what is cheap in the market and what does cheap mean in this market, mike. >> yeah. both tough questions, melissa. now to build on what steph was saying, top down aggregate basis, looking at the s&p 500, you're in the zone of potential fair value amount of valuation compression we have seen is pretty dramatic and matches what you tend to see in these bear market phases. however, we landed at a spot

that's not observably cheap based on historical standards, 15 or 16 still has a lot to do with concentration of market value in relatively expensive large index stocks tesla, amazon, microsoft stocks are picking that up. so if you look at equal weighted s&p 500, it is 13 times forward, compared to lows we have seen in recent years like 2020, 2018 not that different really. and then small cap 600 which the russell 2,000 screen, it is under 11 times earnings, it is low as it gets now immediate question is but what are the earnings forecasts going to do. and it is absolutely the right question still a challenge. i point out every time we hit a low in the market or valuation, earnings outlook was incredibly cloudy at those times, too, and valuations coming down are the market way of saying we don't know these numbers are good. i don't think that's as much clinching bearish argument as

sometimes it is portrayed, even though it is a challenge i would look at individual pockets of the market. every one of them looks like possibly a value trap. talk about retail, look at best buy, automakers, look super cheap, not to say they aren't going down more, but something to do if a bargain minded investor at this point. >> interesting you mention the earnings and revisions because reference points to say it is the same soon after earnings, we saw a couple of companies in tech, snap and microsoft came out and revised lower. that spooked the market. the deterioration in such a short amount of time is what felt different parade of retail also talked about deterioration, confirming that >> yes that's true. i would say when it came to microsoft and snap, there's

something structural happening there. microsoft, they tell you fx. i think what's interesting is it is really different in one way this time which is because inflation is where it is, nominal growth is higher than we previously have been in the past 12 years at stall speed for the real economy companies sell in nominal dollars. that's why i think numbers haven't moved as much, plus it has been fast. valuation adjustment has front run what might happen to earnings i think there's a chance if you look at u.s. steel last week and other companies that should have registered more slowdown, it hasn't necessarily shown up yet. i think there will be a lot to say about this the next six or eight weeks. >> mike, thanks. mike santoli talking about some cheap areas or areas that look like they absorbed a lot of this josh, you're a buyer of zoom this is one of these shelled out companies out there.

>> yeah. this is on a very tight leash but i bought some on friday. our mutual friend eric jackson did my podcast, he was talking about something not a lot of people are which is that when you look at the tech boom and bust of 2000, for example, and to lesser extents other moments like these, where you had companies that were quote, unquote burning cash, making big investments, spending a lot of money, not producing a lot of earnings, being looked at by investors that i can't invest in that, it is a money pit. then all of a sudden they start to show you those investments they have been making are starting to pay off. so he is looking for opportunities like that. eric is a long time tech investor third or fourth cycle like it is mine and one of the names on my radar

that i think may end up fitting into that category is zoom and yes. still not classically cheap but company lost 70, 80% of market cap. now you look at the last quarterly earnings report. this is one of the few stocks that went up after earnings. i think it has been so long trying to find a bottom, keep in mind, it is one of the names that topped in february, '21, spent a year and a half looking for a bottom maybe it hasn't found the bottom, but i think the bottom in early may so far seems to be a tradeable low. look, i may be out of tomorrow given volatility of markets. trailing with a stop below 100 i don't think i take a lot of risk compared to what the up side could be if a rally is sustainable. and it is weird, a lot of these arkk names, while the market got worse last week didn't make fresh lows a lot of themmade lows in may.

the chinese internet stocks for god's sake didn't make new lows versus march lows. so there are areas of the market that have been so completely bombed out, are so out of the question, like nobody would even consider that they're not going to get worse, maybe those have an interesting tradeable bottom here i'm not sleeping well at night, but i'm long. >> optimistic view of bombed out stocks not making new ones you came up with the newest segment for halftime report, i am just a temp here. short lease trade seems to be a good one jon, what do you make of his short leash trade? >> i do the same sort of thing, melissa, not with zoom, but the same thing with call spreads because then you define risk on entry. the risk here is on any given day a significant investment bank says oh, i'm taking them to a sell from neutral or something

like that and the stock gaps down 20 bucks. if you have an options spread on as you and i know, you have a very limited if you want a short leash trade, an options spread is a great short leash trade because you've defined your risk to the down side, yet you know what potential reward is to the up side whereas you just buy a stock as josh said, you don't sleep so well i sleep like a baby. i don't mean i cry all night and wet the bed, i sleep like a baby because of the spreads because i don't have to worry. >> he cries all night for other reasons. joe terranova is dying to get in please >> i am. first of all, i like the trade second of all, remind josh that i had a conversation with him about the valuation of zoom. i'm sure most people watching the show will say oh, zoom

that's probably a triple digit valuation. wrong. it is a profitable company, they buy back their shares, have a capital allocation strategy and pe that has now declined to slightly below 30. from valuation perspective, this is not one of those obscenely valued companies that we think is experiencing precipitous decline. this company is beginning to fit the metrics of a company being more qualitative in nature the challenge for the company is from perspective of how it was viewed by the market it was viewed as a pandemic beneficiary. in the coming quarters if it can message to investors that it is moving away from that, has more diversified strategy, then i think it is a company over the coming years you want in your portfolio. >> you in this one, joe? >> i am not, but this is a

company that certainly let's say in future rebalances, this is a company that might fit the criteria >> steph is making moves, too. the hottest trade falling into bear market territory. is the run done for the sector we debate that when we return in two minutes.

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welcome back energy the best performing sector, off the worst week since 2020 how much room is there for a run in this trade. joe, go to you first >> we should all be appreciative of what we witnessed in the energy market in the last week price of oil a week ago was 123. it has fallen to 110 even more importantly and we talked about this at length on the show, the price of natural gas. price of natural gas last five days down 21%. it is now below $7 this is welcomed relief. i think there's a degree of correlation in a lot of the correction that you've seen in the xle and other energy names by no means do you take allocation towards energy and put it back towards underweight. i think there's a structural bullish fundamental formation in the energy complex we have to be encouraged by

prices backing off from the highs. and what i would urge all viewers to do is maintain exposure to energy if you're trying to replicate the s&p 500, somewhere around 6 or 7% is probably going to be the right allocation for you as we move towards the winter season in which that's when the real stress will come again for both oil and natural gas >> mentioned decline in energy, the underlying commodity oil and when you compare it to the move in the equities last week, the move in equities was extraordinary. that was staggering. >> it was staggering for sure. these stocks are still up quite a bit year to date the reason oil is where it is or at least it was at 80 prewar the reason oil was 80 prewar was because the industry shifted,

strategically they're returning capital and cash back to shareholders in forms of dividends and buy backs and cap ex and not drilling and not producing. they want to return cash to shareholders they want to be more esg friendly and that has tipped the balance between supply and demand, so i think it is a buying opportunity i am 10% weighted overall in my portfolio in energy. that's 500 basis points more than the benchmark, but doing it through quality, melissa chevron is best in class, good dividend yield, great assets refining margins are a surprise to the up side most likely, doesn't trade very expensive 11 times earnings. down 11% in a week diamondback had another dividend increase, this is their third. $2 billion buy back, they're going to increase 75% of free cash flow back to shareholders versus 50. that's very positive

schlu schlumberger raised the dividend 40%, they beat, raised, margins are higher, it is a hidden technology play. they make their customers more productive, efficient, and have pricing power. i pick spots within energy i like all three very much i will ride the volatility train, i believe the underlying story strategically has changed for the industry >> exxonmobile, speaking of which, credit suisse upgrading this where do you find spots in energy, josh, if there are >> one thing i would say, broadly speaking, one of the hallmarks of a bear market, there's nowhere to hide. you can have a sector like oil, obviously the big leader this year, last year, last week has the worst five-day period in multiple years and a lot of gains of people said i am hiding in oil disappear almost overnight. we have been through that.

harder part is to say i understand everybody gets hit eventually in a market like this, but what are the buyable dips can i pull the lens back enough to see something is still in an overall up trend, even if it had a horrific three day, five day stretch. that's the case with oil i'm in the ieo trade i put on earlier on tech calls. when you look at the components of the index etf, 55 stocks, all explorers, producers in the energy space, not the chevrons but really the shell companies, et cetera. you look at the valuation here, these are companies with among the best earnings growth in the s&p, selling weighted average pe ratio under 15, which is below market multiple. i understand why that's the case it is commodity related. you have a pretty high dividend distribution for the portfolio as well. you say to yourself like if i'm

not in this, where else is there going to be earnings growth? it is really hard to find. really hard to find. i think the bulls come back to this space even after a tough week, i stay long in the trade it will keep working through the second half of the year. >> john, energy one of your positions to add to it >> what i did last week, mel, since june 6 we had an unbelievable, pete mentioned it with you, buying of those xle puts that's when xle was 91 it hit 73 last week. and i think that told you everything you needed to know about what institutions were thinking because these weren't small trades some were 20, 30,000 puts that they were buying i have liquidated those puts. i am out of those. i ratcheted down those calls

that i have written against in money calls. now i lifted those out of the money calls that i sold. so i'm doing exactly what joe and steph and josh spoke of, looking for a bounce back in this because demand outstrips supply i think they hit it hard for two weeks, okay, i'll give them that now i think it goes back to work i think we look more like 130 in a month in crude oil >> do not miss david faber's look inside exxonmobile with unprecedented access to executives, workers, and the facilities the company is ready for the energy transition. exxonmobile at the crossroads, tomorrow, 8:00 p.m. eastern here on cnbc. coming up, check out the mystery chart. one of the worst stocks in the dow this year, but the street isn't giving up. one of the committee members just boughitt we reveal the name and discuss it next on half time in any business,

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good afternoon, everyone here is the cnbc news update at this hour. new video showing multiple police officers armed with rifles and at least one ballistic shield stood and waited in a school hallway

nearly an hour while a gunman carried out a massacre of 19 elementary students and two teachers in uvalde, texas last month. texas public safety chief calling the response a, quote, abject failure according to texas police commander, officers could have stopped the gunman within three minutes but failed to do so. an investigation currently ongoing as to what went on and what went wrong and why. and the supreme court ruling that maine cannot exclude religious schools from tuition assistance program that let's parents use vouchers to send children to public or private schools. the 6-3 ruling comes as conservative court looks to expand religious liberty rights and bring more religion into public life. all three liberal justices dissented. britain faces the biggest rail strikes in three decades after last minute talks between the union and train companies failed to agree on pay up to 40,000 staffers staged a

walkout in protest over pay and job security only about 4500 of the usual 20,000 daily services are expected to run today in britain. station closed melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much, tyler. time for call of the day bark clays reiterating on nike steph, you bought some >> i did i bought a very small position and it is not in front of the quarter. i have no idea what's happening with the quarter if you look at adidas, it was down 35% i expect they'll have struggles when they report earnings. i think down 36% year to date, a lot of that is already in the stock. and i like the address of market of capitalization, it will help margins as will cost cutting program. and they have pricing power.

they have goals to get mid teens by fiscal '25, that's a positive thing. lead to operating leverage as demand comes back. easy comps second half of the year if weak on earnings, i will buy more left myself plenty of room this is the definition of quality on sale. >> joe that's the analysts point out, the preview for full year, say china lockdown could have material impact worse than already in the estimates and that could impact the supply chain issues the bounce that would be expected otherwise in north america. that bounce in north america could be muted because of supply chain issues there are cautionary aspects to this as well >> certainly are two counter points josh mentioned, and you want to be exercising the practice of

looking at stocks that bottomed as the s&p moved lower towards friday's low for the year. nike is an example of that stock. nike bottomed may 25th it stabilized. it has not along with the s&p now made a new low in addition, when you look at nike, a lot of what's priced in is already the negative news and looking forward, is china not going to reopen? china will reopen at some point. are u.s. consumers going to retrench to steph's point where they're not going out to spend on athleisure? they are they're going to embrace that practice again i like from the perspective where it is from valuation and i also like what steph said. i believe the word she used was taking a small position. i think that's the right approach to nibbling on the market.

check where the markets stand. firmly in the green. 11 points off session highs for s&p 500, up 2.5% nasdaq holding a 3% gain much more on the rebound straight ahead on the halftime report ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq (torstein vo) when you really philosophize about it, there's only one thing you don't have enough of. time is the only truly scarce commodity. when you come to that realization, i think it's very important that you spend your time wisely.

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get another check of the markets. joining us, courtney garcia from payne capital management great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you make of the bounce today >> i think the question investors have to ask themselves, are we heading into recession, is that why the markets are selling off, is that why the markets are up today i think ultimately i think it is possible we can get through high inflation without going into recession the next couple of months as an investor, what you want to look at, if you are of the mind-set we can get through this, you can start to look at some of these as buying opportunities. i wouldn't say jump in with two feet, haven't seen the volatility we call a bottom. but there are opportunities to have mind-set of impending recession, may want to wait longer. i think there's value to be had and we can very well get through

this. >> you like small caps, you're not convinced we hit a recession. >> correct that's one of the plays, if you're of the mind-set we can get through this, small caps are well valued. earnings growth expectations are attractive they're expected to grow 20% looking at 2023. it is one of the plays that will be hit harder if we go into recession. i think you can scoop up shares at attractive valuations. >> you like energy this was the final trade, exxonmobile. what specifically do you like? >> the energy sector has gone overly sold in the last week what i like is they have a strong balance sheet they have a lot of cash on books, even if energy prices aren't as high as they are, they're in good position to weather through it in likelihood, energy prices will move higher which will benefit exxon. i think that's a good

opportunity. >> making any moves in portfolios today >> anybody with cash on the sidelines, not jumping in with two feet, but one of the scenarios you're not getting good prices with good news start to take advantage of opportunities. we start to see the next few weeks any inclination inflation is peaking, coming down as supply chain issues come down, that can boost the markets taking advantage while things are low is something to be looking at >> good to see you >> up next, another stock stephanie link is buying we are celebrating pride month >> no matter who you are or where you're from, personal and professional success is built on a foundation of confidence and self worth and for so many lbgtq plus youth, that foundation has been cracked by shame,

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aren't they the same thing? can we move on guys, please? alexa, turn on the subtitles. and dim the lights. ok, di had no ideaghts. investing regularly could add up this much! ♪♪ go to investor.gov today to learn about compound interest and other valuable investment information. before you invest, investor.gov. stephanie has been busy. another move you bought starbucks >> yeah, this is like nike, quality upgrade. i started buying it after return

of howard schultz, he is an icon, legendary. i don't think there's a lot he needs to fix he needs to fix china, china needs to reopen and expectations are low. the u.s. continues to hum along. last quarter comp. of 12% and margins rose i think there's not a ton to fix. i like that they have $20 billion on the sidelines they can invest in their businesses in food, people, and places. i think that's what he is going to do. then you have new ceo that will join or be announced, hopefully announced by fourth quarter. analyst day in september should be a nice catalyst as well long term i think they can grow earnings 8 to 10%, get back to 17% operating margins and it is down 38% another quality name i think is on sale. >> josh, why did you swap starbucks for dutch bros >> i like both companies, return

profiles i think will be different. we have seen starbucks, probably 100, 110 dollar stock. dutch bros, buying into something at an earlier phase with that hockey stick type potential in front of it, not behind it. no reason why both couldn' saying it sees strong flee cash fwloe generation strong calls >> i do. one primarily on mccow and caesar's is domestic and i think, as you've seen from the picture thoevrz weekend on

because we're not locked down. when that finally does open up more, i inthk they go right back to good work there >> we're going to take a quick break. but on the other side john's was. een numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.

time for unusual activities. john, what are you seeing?

>> mel, we're seeing unusual activity in three stocks, two of which are related energy, which is not a surprise. first one is jets. jrk rj -- somebody bought almos 18,000 of the september 18 calls. that's what this particular etf, just under 17. so, they're betting that people do indeed continue to fly and build eve on more momentum there. demand is out stripping supply so, prices have just been moving up they have a little bit of a correction we've talked about in the price of fuel, jet a in particular so, that's a good thing for them and i think people want to get out and about. so, jets is the first one. second one is high yield bonds h-y-g.

this one, 100,000 of the september 68 puts. that's saying this continues the path from the upper left to the low oer right, which which is not good but that means that somebody bet really big because it's at 7450 and they're buying the 68 puts but those are also out in september. third and final is cve oil and gas is what they do. stock's up from 12 at the beginning of the year they're buying the 21 calls in july. these are four weeks into the future and they bought 10,000 of those, which is a million share equivalent of stock. i bought all three of those. two calls and one put. >> we want to take a quick check on target. 4.2% is the gain there was a headline moments ago.

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just a couple of tails on the target headline pres. what do you say? >> i like the rails. union pacific in particular. rails have pricing ower, margi improvement, with double digit earnings and i thinkservices can improve and volumes will recover. stocks trading at 16 times forward. >> josh brown. >> ieo, cheap stocks, healthy dividends. i would stay with this trade >> i appreciate that, by the way. >> super dialled in. >> i kwd tell. dr. jay. >> snap, mel s-n-a-p.

i bought calls out there as well >> nice risk to reward set is up in archer-daniels-midland. pricing a little under the moving average >> it was a pleasure i'll see you tonight on fast money at 5:00. meantime, don't go anywhere. "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ thank you very much. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. a pretty nice rally in stocks with the du 600 points after the market got crushed last week even as recession calls for a louder treasury secretary says the unl r unemployment rate may need to go up for five years what does it mean for the market and home sales down for the fourth straight month. one of the largest home builders seeing a slowdown.