tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC July 7, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
industry tick and using it to undercut your business. one way to protect yourself, a new feature from apple. the company announcing new lock download feature from iphones to protect high-profile users and business executives and maybe journalists. protect them from state- sponsored attacking. >> very busy morning so far. those oil inventories were a surprise. we are close to session highs. 38.90. speaks in an hour. in front of that, the judge is back. let's get to the half. welcome to the halftime report. front and center this hour, the road ahead for stocks. is it getting rockier or rosier with the major averages on pace now for the longest winning streak since march? we debate that with the investment committee. joined me for the hour today, josh brown, steve white. john and jerry, founders of market rebellion right here on set. let's check the market. is 12 noon in the east. see where we are. pretty much of the highs as carl said of the day. positive day today would tie the current s&p 500 winning
streak for the longest of the year. you have the dow good for 257. we are watching yields too. the tenure is back above 3% and we are still holding onto stockings. that's interesting in and of itself. i guess our big question and i will go to you first, weiss, is whether the market is finally content on what's coming from the fed? or if it's simply kidding itself? you just had the atlanta fed gdp now go down to -0.19. so they revise that. the big questions about whether we are already in a recession. qt hasn't really gotten going and then they tell me my year before i come on the show that you just bought some cues. >> i did. i think the market is okay with it today. and some week. but my view is still that it's a treacherous market. as you pointed out, and i think the critical point that you made is that letter qt hasn't gotten going at. and it does take a while for
rate increases, as well as easing, to filter through the system. so no, this is what we are going to see over the next few months. we will see bounces along the way. we may even see rallies of a couple of weeks. wouldn't surprise me. but i will tell you that any stock that i sold, despite this week action, is still lower than where i sold it. so i'm not worried about missing the upside. although i do expect, given how entrenched i am and being a bear, that i would miss the turn in the market at some point. but i don't see that your incoming for a number of months. but i did buy q's. i bought q's because the market was looking stronger this morning. i thought it had some continued momentum, so i got in. didn't get near the bottom today, but i did get in before the top. i will hold most of it until the end of the day. i will probably sell about three quarters of them and keep the rest into tomorrow. i don't think the employment number tomorrow is going to have much of an impact on the
market at all. i think that it's right now moving okay. we will have the impact or something else, another point you made, good point. you made all these good points and weren't shy. we now see the tenure above 3%. as my file showed yesterday, i shorted and a happy there. i continue to watch. >> you don't throw around compliments lightly, so i'm really flattered. and honored that you would notice my will restiveness. and the good points i said as well. >> i stuttered. >> i know you're kidding. still talk to me. no way around that. market held its own. is a sign of anything significant that we need to take from here, or do we need to keep the other things in perspective too? could already be in a recession and the fed has just really embarked on letter qt and there are major implications to go along with the race they still suggest are coming. >> when you ask steve if the
market is content with the fed. i don't think it's content. i'm 47 years old and i can eat a pint of ice cream like i did before. so i'm at peace with it. i think we are at peace with where we are in the market. i don't know if we are in a recession or not. i'm not sure it's worth worrying about because why do we worry about recession? we worry about recession because we fear the bear market. we fear losing money. where we are right now as we are in a bear market, right? we've been down 20%, 24%. that's where we are. i think people are becoming at peace with this idea. people are becoming at peace with the fact that we are trading at 15.9 times earnings. that's a reasonable valuation. i also think steve made an interesting point when he said he didn't want to miss the big rebound. we have become conditioned to v- shaped recoveries were the market bottoms and rebounds. i don't think that's happening this time. i think we are going to bounce along the bottom.
maybe we rebuild, but this isn't going to be like past bear markets. is not going to be like past recoveries. and i think is all what we are digesting and getting used to, which is something that doesn't i think elicit as much excitement or enthusiasm as past recoveries have. we are just kind of getting content story sorry, not content. at peace with where we are. it's not a wonderful world. >> i guess what is going to come down to, josh, is what earnings will end up being. the market is not that different from where it was before i left. the twitter deal still hasn't happened. a lot hasn't changed. the market hasn't really found a lot of direction, but earnings for some reason and estimates remain stubbornly high. and i point that out today as i look at a call today that john stoltz from oppenheimer makes as he lowers his snp target to 4800 from 5330. so joining the rest of the crowd. he's still bullish, just a little bit less so.
to me, the most controversial part of this whole deal today from him is that he says his price target is based on an earning projection of $230 per share. $230 a share and a 20.9 times multiple on the market. i thought maybe estimates would start to come down while i was gone. apparently they have not. the question is, when will they and what are we going to be able to tell about the market that we didn't know before? that's going to give us some clarity. but when it's going to happen? >> scott, since you've been gone, food has lost its taste. haven't slept really life is lost all meaning and you are right. you would have expected -- look, earnings season is next week. does everybody understand that? my first company reporting is thursday, a week from today, j.p. morgan. two weeks later, it's apple, google, amazon. that whole crazy week. this is not like forward
looking. this is now. it's really important that earnings hold up. if anything like a 4800 target on the s&p is going to have any rhyme or reason . we have not seen that happen yet. we have not seen many companies materially lower expectations. there have been some notable companies that have lowered expectations like netflix, but we just haven't seen it across all sectors and we really haven't seen it in the s&p 100. stocks. where it really matters for the full index estimates. if we finish this year at 4800, that would be a major, major victory for the bulls. and how you get to a 20 times multiple, i think the only thing you'd be able to do to get there is to say that at some point this summer, we have seen the peak in interest rate hikes. because if you're not prepared to say that, that the fed does
50 or 75 this month, another 50 in august, and then signals hey, we think we have it, right? the data is starting to go our way. it's possible i want to be open-minded but that's the only way that i can come up with a rationale to say terminal rates are low enough that we can project out and say 20 multiple is reasonable. it's hard for me to get there. >> 21. he's on the doorstep of 21. i don't understand how you can still be what he says today is josh's earnings expectation production is a better word for it, is unchanged at $230? >> i'll spot him. i don't think that's going to be the case. i think the second half earnings are not going to be great. i don't think we need to fall off a cliff but i think what's going to happen is you're going to see the trajectory and earnings start to reflect what stocks have already done. so it is possible that we have
done a lot of the work on the valuation side in advance of what the drop in earnings will be. but you have to hear it from companies. and you are not. so we will see what happens. it starts next week. we will see if and when that's going to be the case, but to your point, judge, it really has not happened yet. on the guidance side. so i think on the sell side, the estimates right now are reflecting that. >> will the rubber meets the road in these letter q two reports, q3 guidance? we won't have to wait long. >> josh is right. valuations of come way down. earnings have not. kind of goes to what joe terranova told you yesterday which i was watching. that he bought nvidia back. and that got me thinking like okay, valuations have come down a lot. is it time to go back to names like that and others? i'm not suggesting that
specifically, but the point being that there were a lot of high, multiple stocks have gone up an awful lot that have been cut in half, if not worse. now maybe the time is right to start looking at names like joe looked at nvidia and suggested it was time to buy it again. >> yeah. i guess you could do that, scott. i'm waiting for some big institutional buying. i didn't want to put out the bunting, as they say, on this, what, yesterday it was a 1.5% rally over the last three days. today, if we were to finish around here, it's a little over 2% rally. like i say, that's something you get a crowd lined up for and cheering. is more or less hoping that are out there. people are hoping and hope really isn't a strategy. what i heard yesterday, and what i read rather in those minutes was not merely as
bullish as some people apparently are taking. i think the fed is still dammed and determined to keep hitting us with higher rates, so to josh's point, i think unless that breaks, unless that fever breaks, very quickly here, we are going to see higher rates which is going to continue to drive the market lower. it's not going to be moving up higher in the face of that, in my opinion because like i say, what jay powell said yesterday didn't imply, except for that one little thing that our friend steve leeson is hanging his head on. i didn't see anything bullish about what you and i were listening to and watching and reading yesterday. >> not bullish, but it was like tell us something we don't know. like we get it. we know what he's going to do. maybe it's not like they said anything bullish, it's that maybe the market has come to grips with what's not only happening now, but what's coming down the road. know?
doc? .looks like he's frozen. he couldn't believe what i said either. steve voice, you want to get in. >> i think it has started. helen of troy, and josh is right, it's not the big and important companies, but helen of troy put up a really good quarter. but in their guidance, they cut their guidance from the midpoint, say $13-$10. helen of troy, for those who don't know, our consumer products. they typically buy mature lines from companies like proctor and gamble, et cetera and put new marketing dollars behind it. the company has performed well. over the last number of years. but from 13 to 10, that's a 30% cut. i had dinner last week with lee koopman and unfortunately you were there to pick up the check. not that that necessarily you would have been invited, scott. but his number i believe is 195. actually, we had a broker pick
it up, but that's okay. i get alligator arms when it comes to getting checks. but the number i believe next year is 195. so he thinks we are coming into this year, next year. i agree with it. i do think it's important. so right now, it's just a pause. it's a pause in front of the all-important earnings. analysts are traditionally slow to bring down estimates. i think that will be the case. if you look at the autos, now you see they still say you don't have enough product. to me, that will be the perfect storm. so i just can't get there. the 15.9 times is on this current day's estimates. not on the future. i will tell you that 15.9 will probably look like 18 as we go forward through earnings seasons. >> what if the fed at the end
of the day doesn't necessarily have to be as aggressive months from now as the market was initially expecting it would have to be? >> i think you will make the determination months from now, and you'd have to see a major, major pullback in inflation. look, the fed is not going to make the same mistake twice. they are not going to think -- they won't come out and say hey, okay, we have won. you seen a couple of ticks down in c pi or ppi or -- >> energy is more down from its 52 week high than technology. that's an amazing stat in and of itself. josh? >> i want to say that this rally is about the idea that we probably are through peak inflation, and now the data is going to start to reflect that more meaningfully.
because if you look at this particular rally that we are going through right now, growth is outperforming value substantially. the iw oh is up 2.5% during the course of this rally. the iw and is up 1.5%. so the growth factor is outperforming in small caps, in mid-caps and enlarge caps, plus 3% versus plus 0.3% on the value side. that's a meaningful divergence. i know we are not talking about six months worth of data, but i just wanted to make the point that that is coinciding with inflation breakeven's collapsing. look at five-year tips versus five-year treasury yields. that is slowing very fast which tells you where the market inflation expectations are going. and the 10 year peeking, the five year peeking and that is what we would want the rally to be based on. it has to be based on
something. i would rather it be that then one of the fed heads coming out and giving and inspiring braveheart speech. right? so pay attention to not just whether or not the market is rallying, but why it's rallying and what is leading the rally. hopefully, that can sustain. i don't know that it will, but that seems to be what's happening so far. >> i want to know, jenny, how earnings can stay at 230 or 235 when the biggest part of the market, tech, gets such a big part of its earnings from overseas, when the dollar is as strong as it is? microsoft already told you what's coming and the market yawns. how is that possible? >> to be honest, i'm not sure. i'm not sure that it's possible. i also think we are just going to see what numbers come out out, but i think it may not be that much lower than 230. earnings haven't moved, but they actually have. just a few weeks ago when i was on, we were talking about earnings estimates at 259.
they came down to 230. let's call it 220. that's not a significant move and this is where josh said, he's right, stocks have done a lot of the work. the estimates have come down. i think we are at a point where the rest of the year, 2022's earnings are going to matter that much. we are in july. we look out six to 12 months. what's going to really matter is 2023 earnings. that's where i'm starting to get worried because 2023 estimates now are still at 250. i'm more worried about those estimates coming down and how they sustain about the balance here. >> there are those who say the s&p, 3890. valuations have come in as we have suggested. you underscored that. earnings have not for the large part. for the large part, right? look, having a conversation yesterday over coffee with a well-known hedge fund manager so i don't even believe 220 is the right number. so if you think you're going below 220 on earnings and using the multiple that stoltz has,
almost 21, is just ridiculously too high. that's how you get to the lower price target that some on wall street continue to sate the start market could actually trade down to. >> here's an interesting idea that's popping into my head, but i was looking at the top 10 stocks on the s and p a couple of days ago. they are very different than the top 10 stocks we went into the year. so what's in the top 10 now are things that united health, johnson & johnson, versus netflix. so maybe actually the way that 230 or closer to 230 can sustain is that there has been a significant leadership shift and who's making up most of the market now, compared to earlier in the year. so i don't think johnson & johnson will have a problem. netflix had a problem. that's already incorporated. >> there's a difference in market cap. there's a difference though in market cap weighting versus earnings-per-share waiting. >> obviously. netflix had much lower earnings going into their market cap weighting share of the s&p
earnings on january 1 going into this year gun johnson & johnson does now. i've worried about this for a long time. we all hate intel. i don't necessarily want to talk about intel but intel >> we are talking about chips come to. >> intel is like the eighth largest contributor to the s&p earnings. we forget about that. maybe those earnings estimates already so beaten down, already so terrible and they have been all year, as we think about s&p 500 earnings whether real earnings components of the s&p are. >> john, i'm talking about like the microsoft's of the world. >> that's already adjusted. because they preannounced a couple weeks ago. when it came down from 259 to 230. some part of the analysts expectations were knowing what microsoft told us. we met price card to target gets cut today to 235 from 265
by bank of america. irrespective of what the company told us, that's a forecast. who knows if they will be right? >> that's a forecast on share price. >> the company is talking about revision because of fx. the technology gets such a large percentage of its earnings from overseas, including europe, and the dollar is as strong as it is and may persist to be as the euro threatens to go to par. that's not a major issue? >> it is. microsoft told us that three or four weeks ago. some degree of that $230 earnings estimate has incorporated that. the price target revision is so late. it should have been before microsoft revised earnings. it should've been six weeks ago or 10 weeks to go. not today. to me that's not terribly meaningful. that doesn't make me worry about what earnings expectations might be a. >> josh, go ahead. >> i'd love to hear jenny's response to this. experience tells me that wall street doesn't really care that much about fx being the reason
for a company having a shortfall , or maybe not giving us great guidance. of all the reasons for a company who supposed to report $5.80 a share and come in at $5.77, and the reason why is fx? wall street doesn't beat that stock up 20% the next day. historically. jenny, i think you agree with that, right? >> 100%. i think they think fx always reverses wendy so you will get a little in the future. >> you don't think, josh, given the environment that we are in, it's not going to be so easily explained away, right? the bar is kind of high. >> i think that will. i think there are going to be companies that come out and guidance is in great, and the reason guidance isn't great is because there's more demand than they can fill. i don't think they are going to whack those. tesla is a good example. they just can't build enough, right? that's a really great example
where i don't think in that situation, and we will see many companies and many industries tell us, we would have done more or guidance would be better , if not for blah blah blah supply chain, et cetera, et cetera. i don't think you will have the same negative reaction to that is you have had. i know we keep using netflix as an example. netflix doesn't have supply- chain problems, no matter what they say. that's not the issue. the issue is consumer demand for paying $17 a month has fallen off a cliff, relative to all the competition they have. that's an example of a stock that will get killed. so when you go into this earnings season and you're listening for guidance, a shortfall of $0.5 in earnings is not the same as a shortfall. if is the u.s. dollar versus the euro, wall street will yawn. if it's consumer demand has disappeared, you have real problems. the stocks will get hammered. >> let's squeeze in a break. we do have a pop for 70
semiconductor stocks. should you be buying any of those stocks here, including jen's teicshe said she didn't want to talk about what she's going to anyway. why? because goldman has a tactical trade idea centering on that name. i don't know if jenny is going to like it, but we will find out when we are back in two minutes. and workflows so that every driver and merchandiser can serve up jalapeño, sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.
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profits. there's a look at the smh. i will get you in a second on intel. let this marinade for a little bit. john, you're back with us after having some feed issues for you on nvidia stalking calls and omicron as well. how about this? >> i like it, scott. although this is a sector that i thought would've had more legs earlier, but especially on this drawdown. what nvidia's $200 still off of that 346 high that it hit. after today's rally, back up to 156. micron, also had some, i thought, some very positive things that have caused us to focus on this one again. so uncomfortable with those two. i know jenny and my brother pete are braver than i am with intel, but because i haven't gone there yet, jenny. but given what you said about the 8% contribution to the s&p
earnings, i certainly hope that you are right , not just for you but because is going to be good for the index overall. >> weiss, morgan stanley is cautious. they say rough waters are headed for the semis. inventories are up everywhere, they suggest. >> i believe them. i think it's a common that's been made in the show. i know i've made it which is that companies stockpiled semis. everybody thought they would never get them again so they bought as many as they could from as many places, as many companies as they could. so now they have that excess inventory. that's kind of worked through the system. no company is going to admit that they have excess inventory because they still want to take some more in for the right chips. so, i think it's a moment in time, but frankly, scott, the focus on netflix, the focus on semis, it doesn't matter. all that matters is simple math. the fed is on a massive tightening. so what got nvidia to 200
points higher was only liquidity in the market. drive momentum. i will tell you that 40 times earnings is still ridiculously expensive for nvidia. semis shouldn't sell at those multiples for any period of time. so i would not be a buyer of nvidia when push comes to shove. i probably bsl if i owned it. i wouldn't short it because it's too promotional, the ceo. but i think it's too early. sure, the semis are much better now. micron is still more commodities than not, but the economy weakening, the need for chips, combined with the excess inventory is going to keep pressure on prices. >> you no longer own any chip names? >> no longer own any chip names. haven't for a long time. >> sky works. maybe being the last that you did. >> yeah. >> josh, nvidia? go ahead.
>> i want to pull up a chart of letter smh. that's the semiconductor etf. this is one of those. this is one of those times where all of the companies in this index are moving in lock, step. there's almost no dispersion. i don't care what component you want to point to because i think what steve said about the macro and the double ordering of chips in 2021 is absolutely spot on. the industry had to work through that but they had to work to that at a time where other than china, the rest of the world is raising rates and deliberately attempting to slow their economies to calm demand down, to bring down prices. so what does the environment. people are like is nvidia good company? is qualcomm a good company? these are the best companies in the world, all of them. name one. them research.
whatever name you want to name, they are all great companies. that's not the issue. look at this chart. this is as defined of a downtrend as you can possibly find. literally, since january 1st, lowe's, and that even more lower . nobody is forcing you to do that, distribution. let's talk about the rsi. the rsi on the smh index, it's not oversold enough to say there will be a big bounce. it's a no man's land. this is a calculation that's looking at the last 14 days. it's taking an average of the up closes and the down closes and not just how many up or down, but the magnitude of each. then smoothing that out on a scale of 100. 35 is awful. that's momentum indicator confirming the low prices. so
you want to see a momentum divergence. if you want to have a reason to get bullish on something in a downtrend, i want to see this thing stop making lowe's on rsi, even as price gets lower. tells me things are getting less bad, or i want to see a really extreme washout. but 35 ain't going to cut it. give me 25 and i will tell you all right, play this thing for 10 or 15% bounce. is not where we are technically, so why fight it? >> jenny, there is applied materials which you own and teradyne as well and then there is intel which goldman today says for a tactical trade, by puts ahead of the earnings at the end of this month. >> i feel like that's getting bearish at the wrong time and that's what everybody seems to be doing now is the strategists are lowing during their expectations and analysts are getting bearish. intel is already down 36% year to-date which is 20% better than nvidia, trading at 10.5
times. to me it's way too risky to put a short position on something that's already down that much. i think the bad news is baked into intel. and this is why i own. it's just cheap. it's producing cash. one thing, john, it's 8% of the s&p 500 earnings. i think it's the eighth largest contributor. i'm worried by data made b about a year and change old so i will double check that and put it what number it is on twitter when the show is over. i look at that and i look at josh's comments and steve's comments were they say look, the fed is tightening and it's a bear market. you can buy things. one of the reasons why we own a m.a.t. and teradyne is that way we don't need to say we want to invest in nvidia. we want to invest in intel for you by teradyne where is testing equipment for semis and a m.a.t. was manufacturing equipment, you have exposure. these are great companies. what we learned in the last several years. >> it's the same chart. >> they are great companies.
>> a m.a.t. was a great company at 150. it's 90. we know it's a great company. >> this is where you need to parse out and say all right, all the babies haven't thrown out with the bathwater. which ones have prospects that are valuable from this point today? which ones are trading at the correct valuation today based on where their share prices are? you have a m.a.t. which is at 11 times earnings with double-digit growth ahead. you have teradyne at 18 times earnings with double-digit growth ahead? did those get thrown up broadly and is there value creation and him now? >> those are fair valuations. >> steve, when you said you didn't want to buy nvidia, i don't want to buy nvidia either. i want to buy someone with a fair valuation because when you have a evaluation, -- >> jenny, you credit me that argument on any of the chip stocks at any point over the last decline. you could've made it and i did make it at one point before sky works went to 140 and corvo.
look at them now? they are selling at less than 10 times earnings. but the growth will not be 20%. that's the whole point. you are picking a moment in time . but markets trade indirectio . that's the direction of earnings is down, the stocks are going to recover. >> all you guys are buying all these brought the semi-stocks like at the beginning of the year. you are all excited about them. yes, you were. >> that's not true, jenny. jenny, that's not true. let's talk today by in semis? >> steve, seriously? we've had arguments on corvo and nvidia. everybody loves semis. when you're down 45%, you don't want to buy them? guys, this is when you do buy things. this is when you get bullish when things are down 45 and 50%. not at the beginning of the year when they were treating at 80 times. >> that's right. that's exactly right for somebody who has to be always invested all the time. i don't have to be. so i don't have to make up
excuses to put positions on and say it's great. you know? it's not. the stock price is going to go down, period. >> she's not making up excuses. be nice. >> that i am not. >> she's not making up excuses. >> i'm returning fire. >> okay. >> we will take a quick break. take a quick bakre and come back. financials among the biggest performers today. we will debate them in our call today, next.
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i'm with your cnbc news update. derek tobin will be sentenced in a federal court today for violating george floyd's civil rights. as part of a december guilty plea, the former minneapolis police officer faces a sentence of between 20 and 25 years. chauvin is already serving a 22.5 year prison sentence handed down from a state court for the murder of floyd in may of 2020. the inflationary spike in fuel, food and fertilizer prices sparked by the war in ukraine is threatening to push countries around the world.
the food program says its latest analysis shows a record 345 million people are approaching starvation. 25% increase since the start of 2022. at least one person was killed and six others wounded in a washer and mill so strike in the heart of the eastern ukrainian city. strike the missile damage six buildings including a hotel and art blk. ukrainian officials have said they expect the city to become the next focus of russia attacks. half-time report returns right after this. you spend your time wisely. and what better way of spending time than traveling, continuing to educate ourselves and broaden our minds? (woman vo) viking. exploring the world in comfort.
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welcome back. close to home for a couple of our committee members. john and pete were investors in voyager, as was there for market rebellion. market rebellion and customer referrals. we need to discuss this. if you are part of a private placement with a number of other people, explain the relationship for me, if you could, the ceo steve ehrlich called you quote, a partner of ours in a youtube video i saw. >> well, i love steve ehrlich
but he's wrong there as far as a partner, partner., shareholder just like mark cuban or something and freed. i'm not in their class. i'm not trying to make myself that, but i'm just a shareholder. i did make initial funding for voyager as did my brother pete and market rebellion, scott. but i'm not an insider. i have never been an insider there. i like the company. i did trade through the company up until basically the last two weeks. i was able to trade through them, but i know trade through a series of other crypto brokers . when you're gone, scott, i was biting on that dip last week to about 18.8. i was buying bitcoin and a theory him down there because of the activity. something that sam bankman fried actually said . he thought maybe the worst was nearly over for the sector. so that's what i've done as far as that and voyager.
>> let me ask you this though. i have said in the intro here that market rebellion was paid fees by voyager for referrals. you were, right? >> i can't comment on that right now. unfortunately, that's one of the areas i can't go into with you right now, scott. >> so you can't comment at all on any relationship that market rebellion had with voyager? which was described again by the ceo as a partner, as you guys being a partner. >> right. no, i can't and like i say, i love steve but no, i've never been a partner at that firm. i have just been an investor and in shares that are freely traded. >> i understand that. i think the implication on his part was that market rebellion, you representing market rebellion, that your firm has some sort of business relationship with voyager. i think that's the implication
he was making in that video. >> yeah. and i would read it the same way as you, but again, i can't comment on it, scott. >> can you comment at all on your holdings at this point? >> sure. give me give me the details on that. >> i still own a fairly substantial piece of this company and just like many other investors, i am a lot poorer this week than i was a month or two months ago in terms of the holdings in this company. but again, they are free trading shares and i still own a very substantial piece of that equity. >> the other interesting thing you have said a few moments ago is most recently, when bitcoin was down, i forgot what you said but you bought it on the stick. yeah? >> yes, sir. yes, i have. >> you give me specific?
>> sure. i think sam bankman fried again over at f tx, probably the biggest guy in crypto , as well as mr. zhao at finance, they have both been talking about, and or making moves with money. not just with their lips. and basically accumulating shares in companies for pennies on the dollar. i am not in the same position as those guys, but i thought that bit coin at that 18.8 level and basically a theory him at 1000, i thought those were basically being baby start out with the bathwater. those of the two i'm really trading and accumulating at ve. e lels i haven't been doing any of the other alt coins as they are usually referred to. >> understood. i appreciate you with the update there. we are back in two minutes. site
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just ahead of earnings. weiss, i go to you first. bank of america, goldman, i know you're negative on the banks because i heard you reiterate that on the program yesterday. >> look, i've always said this, but banks to me, particularly bank of america and goldman and jp morgan, they are battle tested. they have been through the worst economic environments and trade environments. i think this will be a tough
time. look, there have been no capital markets transactions in the public market to speak of. that's high-margin business. you've also got low volumes. lower volume space as a matter of fact, 6% down from issuance there are some deals there but that's also slowed down that flow because people still are hanging on to 2021 valuations and unwilling to sell shares in their company at 2022 prices so i think it could be rocky going forward as well as the yield curve just hasn't given them the opportunity to make money. >> i hear you. >> so that's why i've hedged the position >> i know it's pure hedging the position, it's just weird to be long a couple of stocks while you're short the xlf, right? that can't feel very -- >> i don't want to pay taxes >> that's what i figured it was. seriously, i literally did something like that. i was going to ask you why you
didn't sell them, and i knew you were going to say i didn't want to pay taxes on them you are expressing your negativity through a hedge through an xlf >> the other way to not pay taxes is to own something going into bankruptcy. >> good point. >> thank you >> was that directed at somebody specifically >> that was for jon laughing, to get jon to stop laughing >> thank you >> i'll go to josh on that who owns jpmorgan. >> yeah, something really interesting happened two weeks ago where all of the banks announced, this has almost become routine at this point, their annual quarterly dividend increase bank of america raised theirs by a modest 5%. morgan stand liley said 11% goldman raised by 25%, which i thought was pretty ambitious
jpmorgan said they're not raising at all they cited ongoing stringent capital requirements, which is part of the reason these stocks have held up so well relative to other places in the market and i think we'll continue to. the way we think of banks in the modern era is their utilities. they have some wherewithal to raise their payouts to shareholders whether it's dividends or through buybacks, more license to do so versus regulated utilities but not much more that's been a good thing for the banking system if you think about all the stuff we've been worried about this year, the banks have not been on that list. i think they're fine i think you can own them they should hold up. will they make a ton of money? probably not because the steepening yield curve was disrupted. i still think they're okay i think they'll be fine. >> we'll take a quick break. jon has unusual activity next.
"unusual activity," what do you have for us today? >> all right this will bring a smile back to josh's face, too, because somebody's been playing chargepoint like a stradivarius, scott. they bought it on the way up, then they bought puts and traded it they're back i talked about it tuesday when you were out, scott. they're buying again in chargepoint. they bought at the 17, 18, 19,
20 and now the 20.50 strike. the second one, lucid, also talked about this one recently in fact, just tuesday. it's getting a lot of activity and those 20 calls of lucid. so i bought those as well. lastly, apa, apache, 3,000 of the august 40 calls. and just to correct quickly, i said chargepoint, i meant the 15 calls in chargepoint the 17s through 20s were in lucid. >> good stuff. thank you. quick break.
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i will see you a few hours from now had "overtime." joe terranova is with me you heard of his buyback of nvidia on this program we'll get into more of the markets with him craig johnston of canter has made some big calls of late. we'll go through those, too. i'll see you in a few hours. final trades, jenny? >> my most recent buy, lamar advertising. 5.3% yield great earnings growth ahead. >> all right, thank you. steve weiss? >> yeah, this one will surprise you, scott, i added to moderna that follows up on their announcement with canada and australia which is putting up rapid response pandemic facilities there that are also dedicated to buying respiratory vaccines stock is still only six times
earnings momentum has returned somewhat an opportunity to trade higher you will get good news from trials in the fourth quarter. >> thank you dr. j. >> crocs, scott. just a couple days ago it was given a big thumbs up. up $10 bang >> real quick name, josh >> ieo. >> good stuff. >> welcome back. >> see you and thank you see you in "the ot." "the exchange" is now. and we'll be talking more about crocs, scott thanks i'm kelly evans. here is what's ahead on "the exchange." another rebound in stocks. the nasdaq the biggest gainer as it tries for a four session win streak we'll look at what's prompting this change in sentiment and where the best opportunities are. plus, we can't have a recession if the jobs market stays this tight. but will it? we'll look ahead to tomorrow's big jobs report and what the uptick in layoff announcements mean oil bouncing back ng