Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  August 18, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
it lasted for such a short amount of time. >> it's such a power house, tiktok, and bias tance, that company worth so much money, we don't talk about it enough. >> anyway, thank you for joining us, david, give you another gut check, another day let's go to frank holland. welcome to the "halftime report," i am frank holland, in for the judge, the great rate debate we're getting mixed messages from the fed, hawker, dovish, does the market have it right when it comes to rate hikes ahead, and are the risks more to the downside for this summer rally? watch in the markets today, they recently took a move to the upside, apple less than -- higher highs ahead what does it mean for the rest of tech? we're going to debate that and much much more with our investment committee today that includes josh brown, steve wise,
12:01 pm
and -- let's get a check on the markets this hour. as we mentioned, stocks taking a move to the upside, just about an hour ago right now with the exception of the dow still of t, we're seeing the s&p up also fractionally, nasdaq up also a quarter of a percent rates right now 2.853 for the ten year and this is where we begin. jim, let's start we had the fed minutes yesterday, what was your take from it, did you get a clear picture of where the fed is, hawkish, dovish, aggressive, what did you take away >> i did not take much away from the minutes. and that specifically is because we know that the fed and jay powell have gone to a data dependency stance. and it doesn't really matter what they said a month ago or two weeks ago, it matters really how the data comes in. on that front by the way, i continue to be encouraged, i think the probability of a soft landing is going up. why do i say that?
12:02 pm
we still see in the economic figures today and this week things like the philadelphia fed survey, industrial production on tuesday, nicely positive yes the empire state was neglect, but there are more positives than negatives jobless claims still hovering at this 250 level which in an absolute sense is just fine and the continuing claims are hanging in there so frank, the minutes didn't tell me that much, disthe data dependency i look at inflation, i see it coming down, i see the labor market hanging in there. and ultimately where i get to with this is that the onus of proof, burden of proof, is now on the bears to make their case. the balance between positive news and negative news mass shifted to the bull side >> sounds like you're talking to steve. but before i get to you, you pointed out here on the show earlier about the k-shaped recovery when it comes to
12:03 pm
couplingers. s consumers. some really comes down to housing. what did you take away from the fed minutes considering some of the stickiest inflation housing is really impacting a lot of those consumers on the bottom end of that k? >> i'm with jim in terms of the limited usefulness of the fed minutes. mostly what that does when it comes out each time is it reinforces what everyone already thought. so it was like a -- it is like an ink blot and we all read into it what we want to if you are ever looking for great comedy, read the fed minutes from 2018 when they were trying to shrink the balance sheet and raise rates relentlessly and see how that turned out so i don't really worry too much about it the existing home sales numbers is notable so it dropped 6% in july which is now the sixth straight month of declines. slowest pace of sales. you have to go back to november
12:04 pm
2015 outside of the actual height of the pandemic and the reason why that is so important to keep an eye on is the multiplier effect there. so while it is slowing, in terms of transactions, prices are not coming down. so existing home sales are still higher than 10% year over year, which is way too hot if the fed is really going to get its way in the most important component of the inflation data. so it is nice that you have some cooperation with gas prices coming down, of course, put a pin in that because this fall we know that putin is going to start playing games with gas supply all over the world. but fine, we'll take that. you are still not getting what you need in terms of cooperation from overall financial conditions and from owners equivalent rent and housing prices it is very slow to come down so far you've slowed transactions you have not slowed the price and what it costs to be in a home and i think that that continues to be problematic and
12:05 pm
it is a very big part of the economy. not just the selling of homes themselves, but all of the related and ancillary business around that. so i think that that is going to be a continuing issue, it is not doing what the fed needs it to do and you had mortgage rates back off. so if the fed is talking hawkish and putting through some of the biggest rate hikes that we've had to put through going back to 1994, but financial conditions are still easing, meaning we're getting the cost to borrow come down and the stock market is flying, it prolongs the cycle. it makes the fed's job harder. it is not helping that everybody is now trying to trade in anticipation of the dovish pivot. so that is where we're stuck i think one of the most notable things going on in the market outside of energy being back to outperforming is just the incredible strength in apple
12:06 pm
and apple now 7.5% of the s&p, it is the only stock among the faangs that continues to grow in terms of its importance to the index. >> we'll get to apple. >> i won't say much more about that okay let me wrap up look, this is in my view if you look back over the last year, this is not the moment to get fomo and want to play catchup and start putting on aggressive long positions when you've got the vix down around 20, that has historically been a better time to calm down, not get excited and i think that is where we are today. >> bret, over to you any big takeaways from the fed minutes is this. >> no, i think it was a big nothing burger they said we'll act with resolve at the same time data dependent. i do think what is still incredible to me is the fed has
12:07 pm
i think close to 400 ph.d.s working for them so i would call it one of the most well funded hedge funds out there. and still incredible to me that looking historically they have engineered a soft landing which means raising rates and not going into a recession under 10% of the time. i agree that the onus now is on the bears to refute what the market is saying, that i think that the market is saying inflation is easing, the fed will pivot, and we're going to have a goldie lgoldilocks type economy. but the fed rarely if ever stops tightening when cpi is above fed funds. and so you could drive a truck through that even if cpi comes back in the latter half of the year to 5%, fed funds will still be well below that so i am in the camp that the fed will be persistent in the
12:08 pm
market, whether it is quantitative tightening which will stop and/or raising rates, and so to me thinking that we will raise to all time highs by the end of the year, although that could happen, i just feel the probability of that is low just because one thing josh talked about, the housing in the market, that other than equivalent rents is literally they call people at their homes and say what do you think you can rent your house for. and so we all know that we're undersupplied in housing and when you are asking people who own a home for 30 years what can they rent a house for, it is just bad data. and so i think that inflation will stay sticky, not only from energy, but from the owner equivalent rents which they are doing surveys that you would think they would be doing in the 70s in 2022. and so i'm in the camp that i think that there is a wide range of outcomes and that housing will keep inflation much higher than people think. >> all right
12:09 pm
you last on purpose. jim basically called you out are you still holding on to the bear case? >> i don't feel jim called me out. i have no idea what he is talking about, bears have to prove their case i don't even know what that means. here are the facts the facts are that you've got a fed that has got one objective in mind, and that is to slow the economy. to say all of a sudden you are data dependent is ridiculous they are always data dependent they don't pull it out of their butts and say we're going to tighten right now. they are looking at the data that is always the case. so the multiple market is 18.5 times. consumer is not in great shape consumer discretionary earnings were down 18% in the second quarter. and we've heard from walmart, and we've heard from target and, you know, i won't use words like day class a and i appreciate jim being on the show today, i can only imagine that his usually
12:10 pm
table must have been booked. so thank you for joining us. but the market is -- the market is benefiting from looser economic conditions than what the fed intended and that is because they have cut back on the issuance of supply in treasuries which have caused the market to then go and buy treasuries and artificially deflate interest rates that will end september. so we can party on for the next couple weeks until we get into september, and forget about the seasonality of typically being a tough month and october being tough because the markets are down marginally. but that is when the fed really starts pressing on the gas on the tightening and that is when we've seen the tightening starts to impact. so inflation will be stubborn, the fed will be stubborn as well so look, the market has had a
12:11 pm
great recovery, phenomenal recovery i've still got my exposure on. only thing i saw was the smh, i'm going to, you know, as we get closer to september, i'll be pairing it back. >> we'll talk chips a little later. before this turns in to a comedy central roast, jim, i'll let you respond. >> all i'll say, i hear what steve is saying. i listened to brian cornell saying the consumer is in great shape. jamie dimon says consumer is in great shape. >> which consumer? >> i don't know who just said whatever, but what i'm saying is that i've got all of this data on one side from the people who are running companies saying the consumer is doing great and i got steve trying to prove bear case thing, consumer stinks. i'm going from what i hear from the ceos >> the consumer is not doing great. hold on. jim, what you heard from brian
12:12 pm
cornell -- let me finish the thought. what you heard from brian cornell, i don't know how you can trust it you heard his quarterly outlook four times in a row. and they missed. >> i find your argument flimsy if you're going to say you don't believe brian cornell, like we say the analysts are all do da solution delusional because we disagree with them. >> let's bring in steve liesman. steve, can you bring order to this thank you so much for joining us >> if scott is the judge, that makes you law and order, i think that you are the constable, frank. >> i'm trying to be a bailiff at best right now
12:13 pm
so let's get back to the topic >> i don't agree that it was a nothing burger in those minutes. i think that you need to step back and say the market was pretty much braced for a hawkish redress by the fed the idea that the market had taken off from powell's press conference with the idea that there was a pivot, a lot of analysts, i think the market was positioned for the idea that the fed would come back and say wait a second, there has been no pivot. but there wasn't as much of a hawkish redirect as was expected in fact there were dovish elements that were introduced. and steve weiss i think is right, and i don't want to get in the smackdown there, but he is right about this idea that the market financial conditions have eased while the fed is trying to keep them tight. and so if i could, i just want to show you this comment here from evercore isi but b. what
12:14 pm
the minutes mean for next week's jackson hole what it says is the minutes raise the stakes further into jackson hole with market cans less well braced for a hawkish message but also more primed to rip further if powell fails to push back. we'll have a bunch of fed presidents as you know there and so whether it is a consistent message, or do some think that the danger is rising that we go too far the other comment in the minutes that maybe the effects of financial tightening are happening more rapidly in the economy than previous cycles all of that argues for less fed even while the fed inks as josh was sawing does remain squarely focused on bringing down inflation. >> when you said steve is right, i thought you were talking in the third person >> i'm not that vain >> we're seeing ppi, cpi, pce
12:15 pm
regulating a little bit. obviously we'll get one more cycle of the reports, not before jackson hole, but before the september meeting. can more downward trends influence fed policy do you have any insight on that? because we're not going to get to 2% in the next month certainly. >> no, good call on that one for sure i can give you some insight in that it is not enough. i mean, we had one good month ppi and cpi, we have seen some prices come down in some of the manufacturing surveys that are out there. but the fed will want to see two, three, probably four months of data. and i pulled this quote. not really to embarrass the chairman, but to show you that he may be reluctant next year. take a look at what he said this time last year at jackson hole incoming data should provide more evidence that some of the supply demand imbalances are improving and more evidence of a continued moderation in inflation particularly in goods and services prices that have been most affected by the pandemic
12:16 pm
and i was just looking it up when he spoke, the inflation rate at the time was a welcome 5.2% we'd give something for that right now. so i think that the chair will be looking a little bit more right in front of him than he is further down the road as to the outlook for policy >> keeping the comedy central roast going there with jerome powell don't miss steve next week live at jackson hole. that starts on thursday. steve will have all the calls, every detail from there next thursday and friday. steve, thanks a lot. let's bring in our halftime headliner. joining us now, victoria green thank you so much for being here >> happy to be here, frank, though it seems a little feisty today. >> it is a little feisty i know you are down in texas, you do it bigger in texas so we expect big energy on what is going on but i want to start off with the fed minutes. what was your takeaway, did you see any trends that you think
12:17 pm
will move the markets? >> no, i think everybody grasped on to at some point we'll ease he didn't say 2023, he didn't give a sign post, just said at some point and i think the doves are a little in front of themselves right now just because inflation didn't go up from an already bad number doesn't mean inflation is good you have one month it was stable yes, we've seen gasoline prices keep coming down, but it is not like we're in a good inflationary picture look at what is happening in the uk, look at food, look at shelter. so i tend to agree a little bit more with steve that the consumer is under pressure and they are spending on credit, they are not in great shape. so i think that the doves are kind of a little proud of themselves, i think that they are reading the tea leaves a little too much. the dot plot says through 2023, they will still hike rates so everybody anticipating that come may/june next year we'll start cutting, i think that you are not looking at the data that the fed is looking at. >> so i have to ask you, this
12:18 pm
seems to be the question of the month, do you believe what we've seen outside of today, today might be an outlier, but are we seeing a bear market rally, do you believe the rally is real? are you looking at technicals to support your argument? >> i think this is the toughest part of being an investor. i still think it is a bear market rally. but that line between conviction and stubbornness is really tight rope but we never had a full capitulation, we didn't is are a loot of 90% down days, we didn't have sell everything everybody kind of hung on to their winners, their apples. you did not see the sell everything mentality that typically comes with capitulation numb number two, v shaped recovery is very uncommon. yes we had one on the heels of the 2020 low, but that was pandemic driven. an i feel like the market is acting like we're coming out of a recession and not like we're
12:19 pm
at 3.5% unemployment and the fed will have qt and liquidity will get a little tighter so i feel like the market is ignoring what is coming down the pipeline look at the bond market. six months and 30 year, you got like ten basis points difference and then if you look at what the bond market is telling you, what the yield curve is telling you, this rally is definitely if n. front of itself and i think that we'll reverse. >> we'll get to your stock picks before we let you go >> i couldn't agree more >> first moment of agreement on the show i think vicky, let's get to your stock picks. >> let me give another one i agree as well. >> like a mutual admiration society. >> i like the energy she's bringing you didn't even need to encourage that >> what do you want to listen to, do you want to listen to the ceo of a retailer or do you want to look at the severe inversion
12:20 pm
in every pair and dot plots low out, if you went by the dot plot last fall, they thought that they would hike rates once this year so forget about that >> i want to hear vicky's stock picks. one of them is costco. give us your thesis, how does inflation impact costco? >> first off costco is very well run company with their kirkland brand, they are already a value discount so they are passing it on a little bit to their consumers. their customer base is so loyal. 92% membership renewal of, they have 116 million paying members. they have seen good traffic, their margins are strong, 11%. and we feel consumers are driven to costco because of the value it provides. where else can you get like 30 pound tub of mac and cheese that obviously we'll need here in the second half. so i think that costco is just a very resilient stock, well done.
12:21 pm
it is also 73% of revenues is in the u.s. so it is a little more insulated from dollar shift. so if we see the dollar come back up because its revenues are mostly generated in the united states and authoritnorth america actually benefit from a stronger dollar >> and one of your other picks is ibm but i want to get to your last pick. obviously the energy trades are in focus with a lot of macro conditions >> and i think energy security is the name of the game here and we see countries that saw what is happening in europe and they say we need to ensure that we have energy security for our country. they are seeing great demand in asia cheniere is just well run. they typically operate at a 93% rate well above most other countries run at so in a xroeigrowing market, 70f
12:22 pm
their revenues go to europe. they are good at trading, marketing is strong. i can't wait to see their new capital market expectation plan. they will probably increase dividend and buybacks. they may make investment grade soon and i think this market is growing because they are well positioned to pick up what russia will lose in the global lng trade. and so then they will get their continuing to invest in corpus christi, and so they are continuing to grow in a growing market place so what is not to like about that company >> that will gas up 7% victoria green, thanks for your picks and your insight >> happy to be here, frank josh, you told us about cheniere earlier this week are you still as bullish on this stock as you were earlier? >> so i put this on at like 140 anticipating the breakout and it happened this is one of the best charts in the entire u.s. stock market right now.
12:23 pm
i don't know that it continues at the pace it has been going. the stock is up 30% the last month. but this is the type of name that you want to be in for the geopolitical storm that i think we all are aware is very likely to take place this fall. when you think about how quickly this company was able to switch where it was sending its exports out of the terminals are predominantly asia to predominantly europe and you look at the setup, and this is not just over a few weeks or a few months, but there is going to be a being cute need for liquifefied natural gas for yea if not decades, not just in europe and not just becausecuter liquefied natural gas for years if not decades, not just in europe and not just because of russian aggression this is going to be one of the big secular investment stories of our lifetime. and there were a couple other publicly traded names, but cheniere already spent $25 billion. if you were a shareholder in this country this 2013, '14,
12:24 pm
'15, you had to sit there while they made those investments. and those investments now are starting to pay dividends literally. so i really like this story. i'm in it. i don't have a huge position here i'm relatively new to it but i understand why this could be a dominant energy story for a really long time >> certainly a stock to watch. up right now 3%. straight ahead, apple stock up 35% from june lows and less than 5% away from new 52 week highs. are more gains ahead with an expected iphone event and what is apple's move mean for the rest of tech rest of tech we'll discuss that and much what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting more, halftime back in two more, halftime back in two minutes.can serve up jalapeño,
12:25 pm
sesame, and chocolate-covered goodness with real-time, data-driven precision. let's create supply chains that have an appetite for performance. ibm. let's create. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.
12:26 pm
12:27 pm
welcome back apple erased nearly all of its year to date losses and within 5% of a new all-time high, that helping to power the rebound in all the major averages apple the largest single stock josh, coming over to you what do you make of apple's comeback especially on reports of an event coming up in september? >> so what we know is that this
12:28 pm
has been a very tough stock to sell because every time you sell it, you are trading against one of three counterparties. first apple is in every single major index. it is a value stock, it is a growth stock it is a dividend stock it is a shareholder return stock. it is an innovation stock. it is in the dow, the s&p, nasdaq, largest component of all three. so this is really a tough situation for sellers because if they are not selling to an index fund, they are selling to berkshire hathaway berkshire bought 4 million more shares of apple in the second quarter. i guess just to top off their holding. and then the third potential buyer when you sell apple is apple itself the buyback is historically large. and there have not been a lot of opportunities where the stock has been down that much and a lot of that is because apple is not out there making massive an
12:29 pm
we sixes apple is taking a lot of their free cash flow and retiring stock. so when you have berkshire, every index etf, and index mutual fund, and the company itself taking your stock off of your hands doesn't leave a lot of room for the stock to post a big decline. as a result relative strength for the name is incredible, continues to be. could that change at some point? absolutely what changes it? i don't know >> surprised at all by the rally we're seeing >> no, if you look past five years, apple is up around 340% versus the nasdaq at 130 and the s&p 70 something on a cumulative basis. so apple has literally brought the other in-sdices along with them it is reminiscent to ibm in the late '80s. so i think that josh hits on really all the salient points.
12:30 pm
it is ever where and we all own the products so i do think that you are not going to see any broad selling in apple until something changes. the way i view it, i own apple, but at the same time, we sold the qs and bought jepq which actually owns the nasdaq 100, sells 3% to 5% out of money calls about so in general returns in technology won't look like they did the last five years an i'd rather have some of my return be capital appreciation and some of my return be premium from the calls. >> and you also have met ta and microsoft. does the apple rally mean anything for the broader tech sector >> i said earlier this year i think that the faang group of stocks is really dead and obviously facebook is reinventing itself versus microsoft and apple are just continuing to get stronger and stronger so i think definitely, you know, security selection going forward looks very different, you know, very different than it did in
12:31 pm
the past because facebook is still trying to reinvent itself. it is still cheap and the jury is still out if their metaverse will monetize anytime soon so i think investors will probably stick with apple and microsoft and just the value folks will be in the facebook -- of that facebook type name >> and speaking of tech, we'll be talking cisco after the break, it is leading the dow after beating estimas at ttethhe street had for earnings. jim weighs in next
12:32 pm
do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.
12:33 pm
12:34 pm
good afternoon here is your cnbc news update. the man accused of stabbing author salman rushdie is expected to appear in court today in chautauqua county ahead of the friday preliminary hearing. rushdie is currently recovering from serious injuries at a pennsylvania hospital and has been speaking with investigators. russia's ministry of defense warning that if an accident occurs at the nuclear power plant it is occupying in southern ukraine, radioactive material could cover germany, poland and slovakia. both russia and ukraine have repeatedly accused each other of shelling the plant ukraine claims russia is using the plant as part of a nuclear blackmail strategy and two tourists in venice,
12:35 pm
italy have been fined after surfing on the is it i's grand canal. the mayor of venice calling them, quote, two arrogant imbeciles who made a mockery of venice in a tweet. the pair were eventually caught by police and surfers were fined over $1500 each and had their boards seized. so frank, next time you go to italy, i know you want to surf, but you may want to hold back. >> i think i'll just boogie board. see ma mody, thank you very much turning the attention back to tech, solid quarter for cisco beating the street giving a stronger than expected outlook. right now cisco best performer in the madnasdaq >> and they said that enterprise spending is just fine. again, another company that says that they don't see any sign of a recession. take that for what you want. do you want to discard it, go ahead. but cisco does not see signs of a recession. specifically to the company though, is this a company i've owned shares of for ten years.
12:36 pm
during that time on a total return basis, it has annualized beat the s&p 500 that is what i look for for this company. i don't look for it to do something like salesforce, i look for steady performance over time if anybody is thinking about buying, remember they had three disappointing quarters in a row and now they just outperformed this is the time that you want to buy when it comes out of that malaise. >> cisco chshares up just about 6% coming up, the latest buys
12:37 pm
(woman vo) sailing a great river past extraordinary landscapes into the heart of iconic cities is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover. exploring with viking brings you closer to the world, to the history, the culture, the flavors, a serene river voyage on an elegant viking longship. learn more at ♪ with my hectic life, you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. hey mom, can i go play video games? sure! ...after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions, and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wi-fi password again? here... you... go. cool, thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i got it all under control. because i do.
12:38 pm
oh, she is good. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. in order for small businesses to thrive, well invested. they need to be smart. efficient. agile. and that's never been more important than it is right now. so for a limited time, comcast business is introducing small business savings. call now to get powerful internet for just 39 dollars a month. with no contract. and a money back guarantee. all on the largest, fastest reliable network. from the company that powers more businesses than anyone else. call and start saving today. comcast business. powering possibilities.
12:39 pm
welcome back invest thement committee is makg moves. bryn, you have two in the commodity space. >> yeah, last week i bought fcx, really a play on copper. i think that china, the data as we go into the election in china later on this year, which will make xi jinping leader for life, that election will happen, he will win, i think that the data will become less so there is and an analogy that when china gets a cold -- [
12:40 pm
inaudible ]. fcx has gone between 51 down into the 30s so i thought this was a good entry point. so i bought fcx around 31, but i sold the january 35 calls and i collected around $2.85 in premium. that is around a 9% yield for a little bit less than five months and i still have really nice up side on the stock. so i think the trade as a whole makes a good total return if it gets called away if it doesn't and i'm wrong, i've collected over 9% dividends and then i can sell calls again. i do think the data out of china will get better because although they are going through their own housing crisis, it is a manufactured economy and they can stimulate when they want to and i think that they will closer to the election >> and let's get to the other pick, bhp up about half a percent. >> yeah, same theme. i added to it. it has about a 12 plus percent yield. they are heavy in copper and
12:41 pm
zink so i think both stocks will reflate at the same time but i liked the yield and so i averaged down to pick up hire yield and leveraged to the same trade. >> all right bhp actually moving hire since i said that. let's get over to dom chu with some big earnings movers >> estee lauder shares are trading hire gher after initialy sliding. profit and revenue for the most recent quarter topped estimate but they cited a number of headwinds in their guidance, covid-related shutdowns in china o , stronger u.s. dollar and global economic slowdown but shares up despite that bj's wholesale which hit a fresh record high following earnings and revenues that topped estimates, though shares up nearly 8%.
12:42 pm
also posted better than expected comparable store sales growth, raised its full year financial outlook with executives there citing strong growth in its grocery business and then a different branch of retail, let's go to kohl's it beat estimates but slashed its full year forecast citing higher costs and so keep an eye on shares down 6% right now. frank, back down to you. and let's just go through these stocks weiss, you've been quiet what do you think of estee lauder >> look, estee lauder is a high quality company, it is a global brand. very few of those that are around and do quite well regardless of the environment. so, yeah, they took guidance down a little bit and the stock is not cheap, it is never cheap. but it is a brand that has established itself that is going
12:43 pm
to have a bid for it some people use a ton of makeup as you see jim on the set, other people use normal amounts. i'm not buying it because of the valuation, but this is not one that i would sell if i owned it. >> weiss, you may want to be careful about that roast a lot of comments on twitter about that jacket. >> let me just say one thing, if i can, frank only reason that i wore this jacket today is to keep the viewers' attention off of what jim is saying. >> whenever you start a sentence with the only reason, that is a sign josh, on a serious note, what do you think about estee lauder >> weiss, you look great loved you in caddy shack i want to talk bj's wholesale. this is as beautiful after a chart as you can find. it is fundamentally the right place in the economy at the right time obviously the consumer is going
12:44 pm
to cling closely to the membership and the bulk ordering and this company seems to have figured out its ecommerce attack as well. so you have the fundamentals and now look at this immaculate breakout above 69.70, tense nov, bumped up against the level again in the spring, backed off within the overall market and now it is above that level, there really is no resistance in sight. all-time record highs. big convincing high volume day today. it may have a low volume retest of that 70.71 level. if it does, i would pull the trigger. this is the type of stock, very small market cap, $10 billion, could quietly roll up to 100 over the next couple of years. >> stay with happen time joining us next isik me santoli
12:45 pm
with his midday word
12:46 pm
12:47 pm
welcome back to halftime mike santoli is joining us with his midday word. >> good to see you a minute ago i was wondering if the don't short a dull market rule is in effect which is usually when we're sleepy and the market gets a bit of traction to me it is hard to quibble with where the market has gotten to and paused right here. you were talking about a soft landing. i think softish the way jay powell characterized it is absolutely in the equation
12:48 pm
it is not a sure thing but we're halfway through the third quarter exactly. halfway through a quarter that lot of people are saying is when the earnings estimates will have to start to collapse i don't think we're seeing the coincident economic numbers that would suggest that earnings have to come down a lot and you've got the inflationary kind of reprieve from energy costs still working its way through. so i think the digestion of yesterday's fed minutes makes sense. there is cases to be made on both sides but really no big surprises relative to some hawkish expectations >> that seems to be the consensus. you say you can't quibble, but what can you do? are you just mad today >> not at all. what i'm essentially saying is i get why the market is here i take a little bit of comfort in the fact that there is a general reluctance among people to say that the low is in. and that you can believe that this rally has something behind
12:49 pm
it aside from being oversold and technical momentum and things like that. so i don't think that that tells you the bulls are right and it is up from here. we are still a little bit overbought in the short term but i think it makes sense to kind of be here, stop and look around nothing is moving that fast that really i think is going to come as a shock >> all the indexes pretty much flat right now jim, what is your take >> first off, it is not unvogue to say soft landing and youdy say soft landing but you covered if with softish landing. i'll let it slide. question for you second half of august, volumes kind of dry up how do you think that it contributing to where we are and where we may go? >> interesting you would think that the market would be jumpier at this point, options expiration week. i don't necessarily think that it is directionally relevant, i don't think it means that we have to melt up because it is late august. i do think that maybe you have to apply a little bit of more of an overlay of, well, is this
12:50 pm
really what the supply and demand picture looks like because you haven't really seen it be too decisive jackson hole, there is going to be a quorum in the market to react to that if there is anything worth reacting to so i won't discount what we see here i also don't think that it is an excuse for us to raise illiquid. >> we really appreciate the midday we'll get you ready for deere earnings m d weiss both own it. m d weiss both own it. debate comin and you are? i'm an invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... much more on "halftime." i'm okay.
12:51 pm
♪ ♪ the thing that's different about a vrbo vacation home. you always have the whole place to yourself. no stranger at the dinner table making things awkward. or in another room taking up space. it's just you and your people. because why would you ever share your vacation home with someone you wouldn't share your vacation with. ♪ ♪
12:52 pm
♪dance! by christian a medice & elisha noll♪ ♪are you ready?♪ with someone you wouldn't share your vacation with. ♪♪ ♪let's go♪ ♪♪ ♪ahh yeah♪ ♪♪ ♪step to rhythm like♪ ♪you're going out tonight♪ ♪dance get with the groove and♪ ♪dance get up and move let's♪ ♪dance kick off your shoes and♪ ♪show me how you♪ ♪dance♪ ♪♪ ♪dance♪ ♪♪ ♪dance♪ get a free storage upgrade and case with s pen when you pre-order.
12:53 pm
welcome back to "halftime. as you can see we're off the highs of the session d deere to report its quarterly earnings seema mody is back with more on what to expect john deere stock has rallied. new channel checks suggesting farmer confidence rose in july as wheat and corn prices stabilize. the street is also optimistic that the credits tied to the inflation reduction act will speed up deere's fully autonomous battery powered tractor to market. the current target is 2026 deere has its eye on drones and robots that is what got cathy wood
12:54 pm
interested according to research deere outspends its peers by one to two times on research and development but, of course, wall street wants to seep the bets pay off and better understand how it's tackling the on sl going supply change that have plagued analysts average price target of $388 and right now it's trading at around $366 and change. frank? >> all right, seema, thank you very much. here is one thing jim and weiss agree on, they both own deere. what's your take on the stock? you hear seema talk about it being a more tech-focused stock. >> yeah, i actually -- the other stock has done so well going into a quarter, it always gives me some angst because the bar obviously is set very high so we saw caterpillar's numbers. they were not good
12:55 pm
they plblame the supply change. deere has less exposure than caterpillar does to me it doesn't matter this is a long-term hold and why i believe it's ahead of itself versus what the market has been doing. it has good upside it's a large position. it's not a completely full position if the stock misses tomorrow at all, if i get an opportunity i will add to it >> jim >> i agree with steve. it is very ala mode to own deere. things will have to go up around the world with what's going on in ukraine and i will say that there were reports for deere. one thing to watch out for they have manufacturing in germany. what they say about natural gas supplies there will be important for the upcoming quarters. >> weiss, proud of you for not taking the bait. final trades next on "halftime."
12:56 pm
are you following the "halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for look for us in your favorite podcasting app podcasting app foincluded. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com. like any family, the auburns all have... individual priorities. now. some like a little comfort, to balance out the risk. others want immediate gratification... and long-term gratification,too. they have their own interests, but at the end of the day there's nothing like being... a gold-owner. visit to see why gold is everyone's asset.
12:57 pm
as someone with hearing loss i know what a confusing and frustrating experience getting hearing aids can be. that's why i founded lively. affordable, high-quality hearing aids with all of the features you need, and none of the hassle. i use lively hearing aids and it's been wonderful. it's so light and so small but it's a fraction of the cost of the other devices. they cost thousands less. it's insanely user friendly. you take the hearing test online, the doctor programs in the settings. you don't even need to go into an office. they're delivered to your door in a few days and you're up and running in no time. it connects via bluetooth to my phone. you can stream music and you can answer phone calls. the audiologist was so incredible she's full of all kinds of little helpful hints i love it. they're a game changer for me. i feel like i can take on anything. it feels great to be in control of my hearing. better hearing has never been this easy.
12:58 pm
try lively risk-free for 100 days. visit welcome back to "halftime. time for final trades. we have an energy theme going right now. jim, i will start off with you >> this seems very easy to me. exxon mobil, a recent addition to my portfolio. we see that energy kind of corrected the whole space earlier this summer but now is coming out of it i see the fundamentals and the
12:59 pm
technicals supporting it >> brynn >> devon energy is one of the best companies in the space, $85 oil. a cash yield of 15% of which 75% goes to dividends and buybacks the right company at the right time >> josh? >> ieo is flying off those june lows we're going to be hearing about rationing of electricity and natural gas in europe not too long from now. these stocks should remain >> weiss, you have the last word you didn't even respond. jim is over here speaking french you didn't even say anything >> he's burying himself. i have my dictionary out i'm trying to figure out what ala mode, which i associate with ice cream, has to do with "the halftime report. i will repeat devon. it's a bigger position than epd, enterprise products, which has
1:00 pm
great yield. gas related. i think the energy sector will keep going particularly nat gas for the reasons josh said earlier. one last check of the markets before we get out of here all the indices off their highs of the day we're seeing the dow and the s&p in the red the nasdaq fractionally higher, basically flat that will do it for "halftime. "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now thank you, frank hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans, and here is what's ahead this hour has the rally run out of steam the answer may be yes based on what we're seeing in the options market we'll look at what's going on there and where the opportunities are right now. and apple's ad ambitions, what's the plan who are the winners and losers, and how will it affect all iphone users we'll tackle it. the earnings parade continues with deere applied materials and footlocker, whether it's a business cycle barometer, the puls


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on