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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  August 25, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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physical presence that seems to be part of the reason why they're doing this and why they want one medical. >> yeah. i don't think anyone thinks this actually sets back amazon's health ambitions maybe just consolidates it also to your point, maybe says it is a commodity now, telehealth >> we'll watch for bullard this afternoon. of course the fed chair tomorrow let's get to the judge in the half thanks so much welcome everybody to "the halftime report. i'm scott walker the critical fed event under way now. we get the latest from jackson hole, debate what is really priced into stocks and what isn't. joining me for the hour today josh brown, steve wieis on set and my guests. we're positive across the board. nasdaq the big winner thus far trying to get to a 1% gain right now. 106.5. 12,537 yields on the ten-year watching those obviously with jackson hole going on got as high as almost 313 dropped down to 308 where we are
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currently. we try to game out what these next couple days are really going to mean to the markets how much hawkishness is priced in, do you think 75 is that priced in? i don't think so do you >> i think it is i think the market thinks we're going to have the 75 we're having a lot of confusion in the market. we opened, the market went up 2% higher than it's come back in. we could trade all around today because people are unclear 75 is what we expect we would also expect there to be some chatter from the fed, from the fed chair particularly about how they're seeing some signs. the signs he says that they are -- there are signs of inflation easing but they need to hike 75 that would be much anticipated in a positive way for the market if he suggests that there are very few signs that they're seeing inflation ease, that would be a big negative and i think the market would react
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poorly to that. >> what do you think do you feel like -- what do you think the best outcome would be for the stock market over the next 48 hours? >> that is a good question probably 75 or the idea that 75 is coming but that's it. from there things start to really mediate and get better. moderate i should say and get better. >> #pl75 in september you thinkh market would be fine with that >> i think so. it is all about the message. that's what we've been getting today from bostwick and george it's about getting us ready for the news this is what jerome powell does best he prepares us emotionally he prepares us to receive the news, to digest it, comfortably, confidently in advance of the actual number coming out i think that whafrn wants as portfolio managers is let's just get it over done and be done let's stop guessing. if it is 75 we know we're really closer to the end. >> what if it is wishful thinking to think that we're going to get such specificity,
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that we're going to even have an idea of whether it is going to be 50 or 75. there are suggestions out there that this is not really the venue that he's going to do that that it is going to be a bigger picture view of the path forward for rates rather than meeting by meeting by meeting >> i think that's okay, too. what they're really saying right now, what bostick said today is, look 50 to 75 is likely but a lot of data is coming out between now and then and it is going to adjust to the data that is what powell has said all along. we're data dependent, we'll act as appropriate, we'll remain flexible i think we all want all the answers now not just in investing but life everyone wants to know everything right away. but that is okay it's only three and a half, four weeks away we can live with that as long as things don't get too much worse or crazier i think there is an interesting cross, too, between if you're a trader how you're digesting this and if you are a portfolio manager. for me as a portfolio manager i don't really care which it is. it doesn't actually have an impact on the businesses of the
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companies if my portfolio that i manage if you're a trader and a much shorter timeframe then you have a much bigger impact and risk for what goes on. >> so, weiss, you've been in and out of positions of late what for you is the perfect scenario for the market? let me remind everybody as well that we're less than two hours from liesman with bullard and you never know what he is going to say you got to pay close attention to that. james bullard, the st. louis fed president will be with steve in a couple hours' time a little less than that now. what is the best outcome for the stock market >> you know, it is a great question i just have a good answer. when any data point comes out, you know, i think the best are 50/50 in terms of what the market reaction is because even though the market is pricing 50 to 75, when it
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actually happens and the commentary around it happens, that's when you really don't know what the result is going to be in the market so for me, i don't think 75 bishops bips would be good powell already had all the other fed governors out here come out as hawkish as they could possibly be including today. sure there have been some glimmers of hope like saying, hey. let's see what happens after september and we'll assess and that is what the market is hanging on to because it is always optimistic. i don't think this is going to be the powell speech where we're saying we're dying on the hill, we're going to keep going peddle to the metal and 75 each meeting. you've had 86 fed tight engs over modern history and 75 tightening have been below 50 bishops. i think it will drive the market higher with the caveat being
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that maybe the markets are looking for 75 to be an end. i think that is sort of looking at it backward if they're saying 75 saying it is a real, real problem. i don't see that to come back to answer your question with the caveat that i don't know 50 would be good with not much more being said than what has been said already by powell and others. >> well, an interesting point you make what has already been said by powell and others, josh leads one to believe whether the fed chair thinks he needs to walk back or clarify anything taken from his presser that led to a sizable gain in the stock market granted the last week has upset that a little bit but that may be on the plate as well. we just don't know >> yeah, i want to echo something jenny said i understand it might be off message but if there is a stock that you would buy if you knew it was a 50-basis point hike but
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you would not buy it if you knew it was going to be a 75 basis point hike somebody tell me what that, what investment that might be right? stating the obvious, we've built this event up into a super bowl of sorts but it really isn't the most notable thing about jackson hole this year is that it is the highest inflation reading ever so the first time inflation has been a national crisis since they started doing jackson hole in 1982 like why do they even start doing this in the first place? believe it or not the only way they could get paul volker to agree to sit down with anyone else is if there was fly fishing nearby that is how inconsequential -- i'm not even making this up. even if you look at recent years, the most notable two things that we've seen happen coming out of jackson hole, i would say mario draghi in 2014 reiterating the dangers of deflation and laying the
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groundwork for european style qe that was probably a moment and then maybe in 2018 when powell took, i think the speech was called something about guided by the stars, and he talked about like almost like his intellectual framework for the natural rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment which, of course, are not quantified things. it's like a rorschach test for economists i don't think all of a sudden this is a year where they speak tactically this is an event where they present white papers and talk about their intellectual framework for looking at the big picture ideas. so let me wrap this up for you here is what matters commodities over the last month. bloomberg commodity index hit its lowest level since february in the first week of july. it's been rallying again it's 13% off those lows. commodities are coming back to the forefront.
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why? the world is on fire we have dried up rivers in europe and in china that are literally not allowing the flow of goods being shipped that way. like these are the things that are really going to impact the market 50 versus 25 you might get a one day market move off of that beyond that the next day everyone will act like, oh, yeah i knew it was going to be that so don't, like, run around in circles and drive yourself crazy >> i mentioned less than two hours away from our own steve liesman with jim bullard liesman joins us now from jackson hole as he prepares for that and he has already done a couple interviews today. steve, i'd like your first reaction to this idea. josh says maybe inconsequential this meeting when we, you know, it's over hyped. i've read that today, too. yesterday tim rose saying it is unlikely the fed chair will lay out this granular path of rate hikes for the next few meetings. it is a bigger picture view. what is your own view?
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>> if i could just back up a little bit, they think that beta is 50% to 80% of stock changes, right? the stuff that you do in terms of analyzing the earnings socks are going to move with beta. beta is the fed and beta is what is happening with the economy. we'll do a whole bunch of interviews here. some of my competitors will do interviews as well the fed chair will give a big speech there's lots of room for beta here i get what josh is saying. i think he is right that 50, 75 makes less a difference than the overall outlook here the market has come a long way toward meeting the fed closer to where they were. so i just say don't pay attention at your own risk if you think it is not an important element you are free not to listen. we'll talk to five or six folks, talk about the near term outlook and the long term outlook and i think all of it matters for investors. i don't buy the idea of too much information on that point, walking directly into the trap that josh brown set for me we did have a talk this morning
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about 50 versus 75 with both esther george and patrick harper from philadelphia. here's what they said about 50 or 75. >> well, i want to see the next reading and then decide. >> next inflation reading? >> yeah. that said, i want to put this in a historical context since 19 83 the fed raised rate 86 times #pl 75 of those were under 50 basis points we have to recognize a 50 basis point is still substantial. >> obviously doing #pl75 in june and july sets a pace the public is looking for what changes would cause you to step down i think certainly at some point getting to a steadier, more sustainable pace is going to be important. >> so, scott, there are three themes i'm watching. these are all more important than 50 or 75. one, a fairly big shift from
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powell last year who did put his eggs in the transitory basket last year. he's taken them out and put them more into we got a lot of work to do basket is there a need for recession to combat inflation and get it down to where it needs to be and whether high inflation is a permanent aspect those are three of the themes we'll be getting some information on in the next couple days. >> as we game all this out, we were trying to do at the very top of the show and at risk of misremembering if you will who exactly said this, i think it was mester most recently or the one who suggested she wanted to see what i think she called clear evidence that inflation had at least peaked or was coming down and it was going to take a while for her to see that i'm wondering what in fed speak terms that really means. the most recent read was obviously better than the others how many do we need to see before they take their foot fully off the gas? you know where i'm getting at? >> i do.
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so we asked esther george actually volunteered this yesterday. she wants to see three months in a row of good data i think there is a question as to whether that is good month-to-month data which i guess would involve the year-to-year rate coming down. and i think what that means, and this is where it gets actually interesting for the market is this notion that the market had priced in which is that the fed would reach a peak level and then start to cut, which is the way the fed rate outlook is priced right now then you had guys like harker tell me this morning you know what i see us reaching three, four, then going flat. that is consequential for the stock market i wouldn't be making my bets for all of my retirement on these notions but if you have shorter term decisions to make i think they factor in >> i want your reaction, too, to what goldman sachs said this week about what he expects to happen out there we expect powell to reiterate the case for slowing the pace of tightening laid out if the press conference and the minutes we continue to expect the fomc to slow the pace of rate hikes
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to 50 in september and 25 in november and december. i'm curious, your reaction to a fairly thoughtful economist and what he thinks you're actually going to get out of jackson hole >> you know, i don't think that it is in powell's interest to reiterate they're going to slow the pace of tightening the fed has been fighting this battle almost every day every time we have somebody on air they're trying to keep the market from thinking there was actually a pivot i don't think it pays for powell to do that i think it is worth doing, scott, if you don't mind, guys in the back, powell at jackson hole last year, i think it is worth reading that quote, which is kind of interesting he says incoming data should provide more evidence that some of the supply-demand imbalances are improving, and more evidence of a continued moderation in inflation. inflation was at 5% when he said that i think powell has to walk back that notion and be very, very strong that they're fighting
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inflation. i don't see a reason i disagree at my own peril i've been following him for many decades at this point i suppose but i don't think he has a reason to do that. he has to still fight this battle the pressure is off of him a little bit because of how the market has reacted the last few days that the fed funds futures has come toward the fed but he still has to affirm the guidance i would expect a fairly hawkish powell tomorrow. >> i guess if the market had continued to rally into jackson hole i wonder if there would have been the need for the fed chair to walk back or clarify what his actual message was in the press conference that set the market off in the first place. >> i think that's right, scott i think he would but remember that's the problem is this game of -- that is what, i guess i push back on josh, who by the way i think is brilliant and so focused on all this stuff. i would just say there is this game being played right now where the fed is trying to bring
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forward future rate hikes, trying to bring forward the tightening to today. that is why what they say today and the immediate effect on the market has a lasting impact as to where rates are going to go and where markets are going to go that is i think why the market follows so carefully the other thing a little bit wrong with josh's idea and i hope you give him a chance to respond is people spend a lot of money and time trying to figure this out maybe they are totally wrong about it but maybe there is an element where they are right and there are some permanent, lasting elements to the reaction to the immediate comments by the fed. >> yeah. let's let josh respond to you, steve. go ahead >> sometimes i feel like i'm in an amnesia ward and i'm the only one that remembers how this stuff actually goes down like i think the commentary coming, anytime anyone from the fed speaks we should pay attention. let me just clarify what i meant by that. what i'm trying to say is,
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historically, it hasn't been fruitful for investors to make bets ahead of jackson hole that they then would have to live with as though that were the reason they made the bet that is what i'm really saying, steve. i feel like i'm the only person that remembers how this really works. so two potential things happened we come away thinking it is 50 or we come away thinking it' 75 we don't actually know tomorrow unfortunately. but, like, let's say he sounds more dovish than you thought the market could go up huge or down huge. then the commentary all over the financial media is going to be, well, the market doesn't like that they started to sound dovish they think the fed is getting afraid of the slowdown or they sound dovish, the market rallies. the market likes it because it indicates the fed feels better that what they've done already on financial conditions tightening is enough play the same scenario out with 75 we come away with him hawkish. the market sells off stocks don't like it because he's hawkish or he is hawkish
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stocks rise. what are we all talking about? we're all saying oh, the market lacks it because they're being tough. we're going to get a reaction in the market one way or the other. we're all going to be able to say, here's what the market sees that it either likes or dislikes and that is the issue with trying to game this out ahead of time >> i tell you what i feel like, look. i don't like to do the sort of tic by tic explanation for why something is doing but i feel like if you look at what the major averages are doing right now, i feel like 75 would be upsetting to the market and the fact that, you know, liesman -- >> we're not >> i feel like it would be and that liesman suggesting, which he did, that i think your exact words, what i would expect a pretty hawkish message from the fed chair tomorrow, i don't think the market really wants to hear that. you know, i know these aren't huge moves we're seeing but the market is very, very sensitive
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to what's going to come out of jackson hole just anything that anybody says. i don't think 75 would be well treated by the stock market. >> you know, i want to back up what josh is saying here that the 50 or 75 i don't think is much of a hill of beans for an investor with a horizon of five years. i would not be buying and selling stocks based on 50 versus 75. the key here and by the way if you go back to my interviews i've done and those i will do i keep asking them, what's the difference what does 50 or 75 really mean what it means is 75 would mean they are still accelerating into a place they need to be in terms of getting to neutral. they feel themselves to be further behind where they need to be. that means the horizon of when the fed would either pivot or stop raising needs to be further out. the only thing, scott, i've said this over 20 years, that matters about the predictions of the
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future, is what it says about where things are priced today. that is the only reason. because none of those predictions will end up being right. it is just the best guess about what's going to happen that is why we talk to these folks and listen to them >> i hear you. everybody, i know everybody is going to say oh, if your time horizon is longer than, you know, five years, none of it matters. the fact is everybody has a time horizon of five minutes when the stock market is going down a lot. >> not me. >> that is just a fact. >> not me. >> 99% of the people do. it is nice to say if you are a long term investor none of it matters at all bs all right? when the market is going down a lot everybody's time horizon feels like 5 seconds that's why it matters. >> five years is a long time and what i think is that if we get a real sense that inflation is entrenched and we're at 9% inflation or something like that, no one is happy about that
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if the fed asked, doesn't matter what they say. 50, 75, a hundred. that level of inflation is not good for stocks particularly growth stocks just not going to be great and well received so we are hoping there is something about the data that the fed is looking at. tomorrow we hear it or the next couple of months where there is something that gives us an idea that there are inflation categories being affected by what the fed is doing now whether it's housing or jobs, you know, we need some evidence. otherwise we'll have inflation that's too high for too long and that is not good for the stock market >> let's do this liesman, we'll see you -- >> scott >> i have to take a break. >> one more thing to add real quick. it doesn't matter day to day when we're in a long term monetary policy guidance regime like we've been in during the pandemic and even before that. right now we are in a meeting-to-meeting regime and i think that's why the fed speak matters more right now
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>> i a hundred percent agree with that. see you with bullard at 2:00 i'll see you in "ot" as well because i want you to come on and talk about what bullard says he's been known to have tape bombs over the years we'll see. we will take that break. there he is. one of the growth stocks in the crosshairs today is salesforce we need to talk about that because jim leventhal is going to call in right after this break. he has made a move in this not going to tell you which way. wait to find out he's next. back in two.
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salesforce is the biggest drag on the dow today on the back of its earnings and guidance cut farmer jim owns the stock. he joins us now because he's buying more. you just gotoff a plane and yo couldn't wait to tell us that you're buying more salesforce. why? >> hey you guys wanted to know listen, happy to be on we talked about this yesterday, scott. i'm adding a little bit here it is still going to be a small position i'm trying to get comfortable with the multiple. it is a fabulous company okay we use salesforce. a lot of people use salesforce the way they pervade in getting to every system and nook and cranny of your business is
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pretty incredible. i think what is probably more important is what we're looking at for growth here is mid to high teens revenue growth for the next quarter and into next year that's not only good for salesforce it sort of bodes well for enterprise spending. so it's small because of the multiple a little bit over 2% normal position for me is around 4% i also think they've lowered the bar. they've lowered the bar and i think they've lowered it to a level they will easily clear at 30 times next year's earnings i'm in >> i still feel like you have half love for it you say the multiple is preventing you from building a bigger position but then you gush all over the company and the reasons why you're in it in the first place. why not if you're in just be in and if you're out just be out? >> i will take your criticism to heart. half love -- how about two-thirds love? you're right it is not full love if it were to be a lot higher in
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my portfolio simply put this is not a hill i'll die on. everybody knows my signature stocks if i can get more comfortable with this over time maybe it becomes one but it is not the sort of stock that i think is going to return on say the level of a boeing or paramount or qualcomm or cleveland cliffs i think it will be a positive returner i have to have a toe hold here that's what i've got. >> iappreciate you calling in and telling us about it. jim lebroenthal farmer jim do you own salesforce? >> i do. >> how about this move >> i think it is a good move for jim to make. we owned it for a while and bought more when it fell over the last 12 months the reason we think it is still a stock to own, if you looked at just their core business operating income was up 27%. they are buying back $10 billion of stock. >> first ever buyback. >> correct very impressed that he made that
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clear he was going to do it and thinks it is important still heavy cash flow. they took the guidance down. i understand that. it's almost all fx it isn't just fx but a lot of it is about $800 million that is above the level of the miss i would also point out the following which is critical. they are reporting because they are a june 31st year they saw one more month of what is going on in the world other software companies didn't talk about the macro softness to the system because perhaps they didn't see it. what salesforce has seen is something other companies have seen they've just admitted it and they've taken numbers down to a level we think are achievable. >> again like one-third of their revenue is from outside the u.s. so obvious currency issues snowflake, having a huge day today the best day since the ipo, about 20% you know, brad of course, frequent guest on the show a big position in snowflake.
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he told me today, quote, snow gets lumped in with other covid bubble stocks like zoom. this quarter emphatically corrects that failed view. snow is aws not zoom he is pouring cold water all over the notion this should be viewed anything other than the juggernaut he believes it is what do you think? >> yeah, so i think this stock looks like it's bottomed i think this is like the situation where first of all it is one of the craziest charts i've ever seen in my career. basically the company comes out of the gates into the hottest ipo market maybe outside of the year 2000 of all time. and it immediately runs to 400 then it gets cut in half in, like, let's say, four months to 200. runs right back to 400 starts the year off there. january. and now it's under 200 again it's cut in half, doubled, cut in half. and now at this point i think if you were going to sell the stock you already have
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i think as long as this name can hold, the july lows you could be long just understand you could be playing with fire it is one of the most expensive stocks in the market and has one of the highest growth rates in the market on any given day if there is a sentiment shift where people want out of beta and growth they'll beat this thing up conversely, when this company reports actual results, the results are astounding it's in the hottest segment of the hottest part of technology, and it's going to continue to dominate within that segment for a long time to come. so it's a $60 billion market cap. i would say expect a lot of volatility if you have room for that in your portfolio, i think it's okay you can be here. >> quickly, speaking of high valuation and growth rate companies, you've had 20 hours now to think about nvidia after the quarter. what is your view right now? >> let's go with what is called
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the bloodless verdict of the market they told us in early august things would be soft they were very specific as to why. the gaming market. we already knew that obviously they're not going to have great come pleases when everyone is outside again. put that aside if you are in this name for the right reason which is the technology platforms they're building, that will only really begin to pay off in a large way in the coming years and decades you don't care about the s cyclicality. stock was poised to open 5% now it's up 2% the quarter was soft we know why. let's move on. we know why we're investing in this company >> i want to step back to a couple years ago when i called in on palo alto. i think what is interesting in looking at palo alto, snowflake, and salesforce is a bigger thing out there. we need to be really careful
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this year saying not just buy software or semis. you need to look at each company. palo alto actually had bookings and revenues faster than they expected salesforce a little slower it made me think, gee. i wonder if the chief technology officers and cfos are saying we need to be cautious with spending but cyber security is where we need to put everything. maybe we can slow down a little bit on client relationship management i think we need to be really careful and look at each company on its individual merits >> i haven't forgotten auto desk i promise i'll get to you with that before we go today. she owns that. a nice stock today straight ahead a new list of top stocks to hold over the next 12 months we do have some nehiowrsp on the committee, the debates, the trades when we come back data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like...
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good afternoon i'm seema mody with your cnbc news update. a russian court releasing the former mayor of russia's fourth largest city who was arrested yesterday on charges of discrediting the country's military he was allowed to go home while the investigation continues but is prohibited from communicating with anyone other than his family and lawyers he was fined three times earlier this year on similar charges paving the way for a criminal
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case the law authorizes for repeat offenses. harvey weinstein has been granted an appeal two and a half years after he was found guilty of rape and sexual assault a judge granted the appeal arguing certain testimony allowed at trial was improper and a juror who wrote a novel about predatory older men should have been disqualified weinstein's attorneys have until october 18th to file a brief with the court to begin the appellate process throw novak djokovic's refusal to get covid-19 vaccine will prevent him participating in the 2022 u.s. open. the serbian star announced on twitter he is unable to travel to new york for the year's final grand slam tournament and thanked everyone for his support. it is a loss back to you. >> seema mody. morgan stanley is out with a list today of 15 stocks they say you can hold for the next 12 months among those names amazon, exxon mobile, palo alto, and more. steve weiss, lockheed is on the list you going to hold it for the
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next 12 months >> i like lockheed it's steady and has been for as long as i can remember given what's happening geo politically in the world i think it's in a good position. i see army stocking up, lockheed being one of the better companies and leader in that yes i intend to hold it. >> josh, simon property made the list >> yeah, look. i am of the belief that the once in a generation shift we've seen of people moving out of cities and into suburban areas is not going to reverse itself. thankfully the cities are being repopulated by people in their 20s and early 30s and that's exactly what should happen but now we'll need a town square anden ceasingly a class malls are becoming the town square for this massive suburban exodus and the foot traffic numbers prove it so simon only does high end malls. only has high end tenants. they're in all of the best
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locations all over the country i think for that reason this is a reit that will continue to pay a nice dividend for years to come. >> okay. jenny? thermal fisher on the list. >> we were talking about this earlier and one thing we were saying above all else about the company is it has a phenomenal management team, really professional, really consistent, always under promises a little bit. over delivers and they are in a space testing analytics that has eternal need this is a stock that i think i wouldn't just hold for 12 months but i could hold it for 12 years. way is interesting, too, a lot of inherited portfolios i get people really have held it for 12 years. >> oh, yeah. >> sometimes you see people like 30 years, 40 years this is a real legacy position that people have. >> okay. visa you also own thermal by the way just to get that out there visa, though. >> we like visa because it has some tail winds. it's big in cross border spending what we're seeing, so many people are traveling that's been fantastic for visa
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they're seeing those numbers up above 2019 in terms of the spend that they're getting on their credit cards it's the top of the game in terms of the technology. it's been a very good stock this year we think that can continue. >> let me just come back to you on auto desk i'm not going through amazon i don't know that anybody who owns it between josh, or any of you are going to say no. auto desk a nice stock up a couple percent today on the back of earnings. >> a really strong quarter, 17% revenue, 36% eps growth. they've started to come out of the doldrums in construction and getting the business, most of their business is subscription and people are using it and adding to their usage of auto desk and we think that at this price level it's been down this year and starting to come back we were really pleased with the quarter and the guidance for the future. >> good stuff. home builders have been moving higher over the last few months but a bearish call is out today on some of those stocks. we'll find out how you should be
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playing the group amid higher interest rates, next
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mentioned the bearish call on housing stocks today. they say housing demand and the reset for higher interest rates will take a toll everybody knows what is happening in the housing market. you took a long look at the housing stocks in february and passed across the board. why? >> in february we looked at them when they were down 20% and superficially the numbers looked amazing. what we found out is earnings were still two to four times higher than prepandemic so obviously unsustainable. we think there could be another 50% down side to earnings. what was really interesting and like the nail in the coffin of us not making an investment was the fact that as we looked at customer reviews they were pretty terrible and we thought home builders really rushed to get product to market and maybe cut corners and by doing so might have risked real damage to their brands we thought it was a really value trap kind of thing >> even ex that sort of view
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just the current environment we are in and may continue in from here in housing would you own any of these stocks if any of what you just said was reversed? >> okay. maybe in february before we knew how bad things were going to get now because that was pre-russia-ukraine, prethis kind of malaise we've been in maybe if none of that were in place we might have but i don't think so it is interesting the different things that actually get you to the right decision i think something important on this one is to remember it is oftentimes as important as what you don't buy and don't own as what you actually do end up buying now we're looking at, woo. disaster verdict. >> josh, do you still own invitation >> i do. i continue to think that this is like one of the best asset classes available for investors. there are not a lot of ways to directly invest into single family homes invitation is one of those situations it has fantastic leadership. i've spoken with dallas tanner the ceo.
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i understand the pedigree here a lot of smart people founded this business. and it continues to thrive so i am long i'm a long term investor here not going anywhere. >> all right we will take a quick break when we come back on "the half" mike santoli joins us with his midday word, next. aid it couldn. because the big drug companies have billions of dollars and an army of lobbyists. but aarp has never run from a tough fight. they stood with their 38 million members and said, "enough." enough of the highest prescription drug prices in the world. together, we forced the big drug companies to lower prices and save americans money. we won this fight, but big pharma won't stop. so neither will aarp.
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your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit welcome back to "halftime. senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us with his midday word you feel like the market has a
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pretty good grip or at least it thinks it does on what comes out of jackson hole? >> yeah, i do. i think the market is behaving as if there isn't this big dangerous gap between market implied outcomes for the fed and what the fed has been trying to convey right here the chatter this morning emphasizing that a half percentage point rate hike in september if that's what happens is still an aggressive part of the tightening campaign and so the market is trying to make sure the market doesn't view that as kind of a wishy washy, dovish move down from the potential 75 i think all that makes sense you're seeing all those elements of macro that were at the borderline of being threatening, like the 10 and 2-year yields up near the kind of pain point as well as where the dollar was easing back slightly you don't want to make too much of it. i think in general the market came into the week still a little bit overbought. we relieved that apple has de compressed a fair bit this week. that was an issue. a little too much reliance on apple. just a few percent off the
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highs. i don't want to draw grand conclusions but it seems as if the market is on relatively balanced footing. >> the market seems okay with 50 but do you think that stocks would be okay if it was led to believe that 75 was coming in september? with open ended after that >> well, i think the open ended after that is probably the issue. to me it's the destination point. if we're getting up to 3.5%, 4% on the shortened and just going to stay there for a while. that might be what the ultimate intent is of the messaging which is let's not focus too much on what happens the next couple meetings let's focus on the fact that might be higher for longer or at least plateau for a while and the inflation fight will kind of convert toward a resolve not to be quick to ease policy down the road that is way beyond i think the stock market's immediate window of what it cares about right now. >> do you feel like we're still especially sensitive to any of the fed speakers you know, not including the fed
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chairs i said in a little more than an hour bullard, right, has a history of saying things that moves the market >> yeah. sure and so i feel like if the market's sort of seems like it's comfortable in one scenario there's always the possibility for a jolt coming if that's challenged in a way, persuasive way i persuasive way, i guess. obviously can go all different directions from here it would seem as if right now they don't want to focus people on the idea they're still chasing inflation higher with ever-changing ratehikes and that 75 is the norm unless we deviate from that message i feel it can be absorbed >> it's interesting watching the rate in moves. we're back at like 306 traveltos, wwi scke ll debate if there's still time to jump into some when we come back
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to support that village. ♪ ♪ i am peter akwaboah, chief operating officer for technology, operations and firm resilience. when you think about diversity, the employee network group is fundamental to any organization to provide a community and a belonging environment for the employees. they provide an avenue to support employees and ultimately it leads to retention of the best and brightest. the employee network represents the community at large, and it provides a good feedback loop to senior management to make the appropriate decisions, which ultimately contributes towards the bottom line. if you're thinking about growing your business, if you're thinking about driving the business forward, inclusion is a strong part of this. i am peter akwaboah and we are morgan stanley.
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we mentioned travel stocks creeping higher, the list today we're keeping our eye on demand is picking up, booking holdings, marriott and wynn. you open booking, you only amex. we talked visa already talk to me about booking >> it's under market multiple, 17 times earnings. they're getting the push from people traveling planes are full, people are booking. they need to get reservations.
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it's the best app. we think at this price it's very attractive >> jetblue, you own disney, marriott we said 50 day tell me. >> i think this is where we see roadblocks in loss is nvidia's game each consumer isn't hurt equally. wherever you travel, we've all been on planes has driven, has done something and it is off the charts busy everywhere you go. jetblue, kissdisney, none have returned to what we expect but are well on our way. disney to 10 bucks of earnings, 11 1/2 times jetblue we think $2 of earnings. that would put it at four times. the earnings growth is coming. all you need to do is hop on a flight to see it >> travel is crazy flights are packed year to date, i'm looking at it right now. jetblue down 42%
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if you can't get while the getting is good. >> you buy low and sell high you didn't want to buy it when we did at $15. we should have bought it here. you need to look forward and you need to be early jetblue's share price is kind of specific, too, to the spirit the spirit acquisition was so noisy and so cloudy and so emotional it distracted people from the fact estimates for 2024 really are about $2 a share. and so i think now that spirit's over that shift will start to happen and people will see it as just a cheap company >> okay. we'll take a break and come back with your final trades next. >> announcer: are you following the "halftime report" podcast? ll nngor you waiti f foowow
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we have a jam-packed "overtime. jpmorgan is with us, stephanie link, steve leiesman from jackso hole what it might mean from powell tomorrow btig, paul hickey. we have a firm earnings. we're jam packed i'll see you in a few hours. eqt, it's an energy play why? >> yep, it is. it's a nat gas play. this stock has done well the last six months. not so much the last three
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months i think it's pretty cheap on a free cash flow yield you have about 14% and i'll go back to it again, natural gas, ngl, so it's in the sweet spot. i believe nat gas prices will accelerate this is not that well known. i think it has a lot of upside that's why i bought it i don't think energy is investable over the long term. i think history has proved that out. the next six months or so this stock could do very well >> i feel this is a joe terranova name i might be misrepresenting that. at any rate, final trade, weiss, quick. >> eqt that's my final trade, too >> good stuff. josh brown >> jpmorgan 3.5% yield could have 50% upside the next few years. >> blackstone, market multiple
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leader in private equity >> and jenny >> one from our growth, so no dividend yield but aptiv earnings growth for the next three years. >> i will show you what the major averages are doing as we head out one hour from now steve liesman with jim bullard one day ahead of the fed chair himself "the exchange" is now. thanks, scott. i'm jon fortt. investors anxiously awaiting fed chair powell's big speech at jackson hole tomorrow. we will look at what a transformation into a dove would look like for powell and what that would mean for your money plus, the peloton ceo compares the company to turning a cargo ship as it tries to evolve it's not the only company hoping to pull off a transformation as demand for its product wanes a post-pandemic reinventio


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