tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC August 26, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
space. >> that's mark zuckerberg on joe rogin's podcast. he hasn't tweeted in a decade. how does he know >> i don't know what to say here, kettle, pot, black, twitter, instagram a lot of people might disagree with that. >> session lows for a lot of the major indices. that does it for "tech check." "the half" starts now the judge. >> thank you very much welcome to the "halftime report" i'm scott walker new york stock exchange front and center where stocks are likely to go once the dust settles at jackson hole we'll discuss and debate that with the investment committee. tom lee joins us in a few minutes as well. looking very much forward to that conversation. joining me for the hour today, brenda vangelo, jason snipe, josh brown and steve weiss and here with me is jim laventhal.
you've been seeing the sell-off off of the better part of the last hour. the dow is down about 560 right now. it's the nasdaq that's taken it hard today, down 2.5%, the ten-year note yield is at 302 so yields aren't running away on the front end i guess, would you say. nonetheless, jim laventhal, this was a hawkish speech, full stop. the fed chair said his message was "going to be more direct, restoring price stability will take some time using our tools forcefully." he said "usually large increase could be appropriate at the next meeting, dependent on incoming data." he cite the paul voeker can saying we must keep at it before the job is done and there will be pain as a result. liesman pointing out that shows how resolute the fed is going to be and with all of that you say what >> first off, i say this is not a surprise he wanted to take off the table that rate cuts were come any
time soon. that idea should not have been on the table everybody for the last month plus has been saying we're going to raise above restrictive, everybody in the fed governance committee we'll raise above restrictive levels and stay there. that should not have been a surprise he said he's data fendent. one month is not enough. that should not have been a surprise >> he really say he was going to be data dependent? >> that's what i heard, and i listened, you listened he said "i want to see the totality of data before making the decision." those were more or less his exact words, the totality of data was a phrase that he used >> i feel like they're going to put a sledgehammer on the economy, steve weiss, and then they may be data dependent on what happens next, but this was about as hawkish as you've ever heard this fed chair, i thought. >> yeah, you know, frankly, i've never seen a market down almost 3% because it expected something. so i challenge that the market's not surprised by it.
everybody expected such a hawkish statement by powell. some did for sure, but a lot didn't, and take a look at where it is. i think the delusional aspect of what some people are saying really has to stop they have to think, be a little introspective and realize it's been free money not just in the u.s. but around the world for the longest period ever. there's no time like this in history, none, period, end of story, and so everybody got addicted companies, investors, meme players, aped, got addicted to free money and turning that, getting off that addiction, like any addiction, is painful, a lot of bumps in the road and it's not a one-way trip >> he said painful it was going to be painful he definitely said it was going to be painful. >> it will be. let me say one more thing. >> go ahead. >> the market got to 18 times,
in any environment that is expensive. so you've got to overshoot on the downside so there's no basis for being bullish here, congratulations to the bulls, who caught the bear market rally, and thinking that's redemption. it's not get real >> brenda, he basically told you that the fed's going to break the economy. i mean, he said as much without saying those exact words the only question now is, by how much do they send it into a deep recession? is a soft landing even possible? do they even care at this point about a soft landing is that really the goal? i thought this was about as sort of plain spoken clear as we've heard this chair >> well, i think if we consider the circumstances right now, if we look at economic data, it's still very strong by many measures, especially areas like the job market, which jay powell called out as being problematic once again, and we've had this
nice market bounce that we've seen i think there was no reason for him. it should be certainly not to be dovish at all, and i think he needs to send a clear message that the fed plans to combat this inflationary environment so we don't have long-term inflation expectations getting ahead of themselves because that's going to be a bigger problem to battle and will cause more pain, as he suggested so i think what i heard is not that they're planning so throw the economy into recession, but that they are planning to keep restrictive policy in place perhaps for an extended period of time. so to jim's earlier comment, i think that signals hey, we're not going to lower interest rates any time soon, knowing what we know today so i think it's possible that they could still have a soft landing scenario, especially given the strong backdrop that we're dealing with right now i think that's the other difference this time around. >> jason snipe, liesman
correctly pointed out, the fact that powell went out of his way to suggest that there is going to be pain he used that word, just shows how resolute they're going to be, and if the economy breaks in the process, so be it, because he can't stand the pain anymore. he can't stand the pain that inflation is cause so long many people in this country that, you know, be damned if the economy suffers dramatically as a result they have to get it under control and he's resolute in doing so >> absolutely, scott i mean, clearly powell was forceful in saying that they're going to be forceful in stifling demand that's the case here i think you know, for the bulls and thinking about this case potentially being, this speech being dovish is the wrong way to think about it weisman makes a great point, so much free money out here he had to come out and make this type of statement, and i think also some confusion last month
on, you know, reserving or changing course early next year and potentially reducing rates we to put that to bed as well, so i think the story is really about too little if they do too little and inflation becomes more deeply entrenched, that will be more painful than the latter. so i think that's really what the fed is focused on and i think rightfully so, and we'll kind of see as inflationary prints come over the next couple of weeks and months if there's a theme where they're slowing, that will be positive for the markets but we to come out and state what he stated today >> unless you just don't believe powell, unless you don't believe thatte that they're going to follow through on what he said they're gonna do because either infl inflation's going to cooperate so tremendously, or they're going to break the economy enough that they have to reverse course rob sechin tweeting, we think the fed is talking tougher than they will need to deliver. i don't know what you make of this, josh brown, but i
certainly would love to hear it. >> well, the talking is part of the policy they don't speak for no reason once upon a time, there was a fed that held no press conferences, never answered any questions, and spoke ellipticically like the caterpillar from "alice and wonderland." that was alan greenspan and on cnbc you had a camera set up to watch him walk across a street with a briefcase and try to gauge the meaning of that based on how overstuffed with papers that leather briefcase was i'm not making this up you can google this. the fed has since learned that speaking is a very powerful tool or weapon in its arsenal, and so rob may be exactly right the last thing the fed needs right now is for the market to start anticipating a dovish pivot is the stew peddest thing on earth
that forces them in a position to continue to fight against financial conditions that are too loose. 'stock market rallies 25% in the fed's face what, do you think that means longer tightening cycle or shorter? of course longer so it's a weird situation that we're in now the fed's like walking a tight rope they don't want to give the market the impression that they're trying to create a financial crash, but they don't want people saying you know what i don't care i'm buying now because we're about to have a pivot, and all of a sudden you see rates come down, which they have. you see multiple expand, which they have. you see the wrong type of lending to resume, which is might. then you see bitcoin start rallying that works contra to what the fed needs to do here so i would expect the continued tough talk. that being said, pretty much a guaranteed recession in europe in the next six months 50% chance according to wall street of a recession here, in the next 12 months, and i'm
going to share something with you that leventhal is probably not going to want to hear, a lot of people don't want to hear but this is the reality. go back to 1940, you have never had an inflationary spike above 5% that was resolved with anything other than a recession. it's never happened. nine instances 1945, '48, '53, '69, '73, '80, '81, '90, 2000, this would be the tenth. you want to roll the dice cowboy you want to say -- >> i want him to respond >> this the way the fed gets away with it not me not me >> i want leventhal to spon res respond. ubs is pricing in a soft landing and maybe some market participants have as well. >> jim >> i hope you will allow me to make clear with wha my position is >> please do >> 50 basis points in september, 25 in november and december and
the fed pauses i never had rate cuts in the program. i told you a couple of times it's like having a mother bail you out from a fight you remember that line, not in my equation. what is in my equation and josh makes a fair point it's a good point. history says this, but we have to acknowledge that where we've been in the last two years, there's been a lot of historical precedents broken, including over the last six months a bear market in which jobs increased, meaningfully increased, and there was no banking crisis. honestly, i've never seen that another thing that i have not seen in 40 years, literally 40 years of investing is a european recession in any way cause a recession here in the u.s. i haven't seen it. doesn't mean it can't happen what i am saying is that we are in this post pandemic world, dealing with the short term and long-term effects of having shut down the global economy. one of the short term effects is inflation, which the fed held out to control, god bless them they're doing it, by the end of this year, if you follow my
thesis, they'll raise 325 basis points what is missing so far, so far is a collapse in earnings. yes, earnings estimates for 2023 have come down from june by 3% big deal >> what if they go past 4 and stay there for a while >> then avenue we got a problem. can i respond, jump in front -- >> let me finish you had so many fed speakers this week almost err on the side of going there rather than not it's like you got ear muffs on any occasion you don't want to listen to what they're trying to tell you >> that's not it >> esther george said go past 4% and stay there for a while >> believe it or not, you're welcome to be skeptical of this. cine qua non from where we are is inflation jay powell doesn't wake up in the morning and say let's crush the economy. he says let's crush inflation. if i have to crush the economy along the way so be it
gasoline futures before -- hold on, before you start laughing, let's get it all out there josh, i see you laughing i think it's inappropriate, okay i think you should give some credence to the other side of the story. gasoline futures are down 40%, corn, cotton, wheat futures back to where they were before the russian invasion, talking about food, we're talking about clothing, cotton, we're talking about fuel yes, i know you're going to come at me about rent i've heard you say that. owner's equivalency rent is one of the most made up fantasticical statistics >> what he'll come at you here, i'll give you the josh, you can't to one without the other you can't say i'll crush inflation without crushing the economy in the process and some people think they can regulate how much they can tweak it along the way. we'll only hit the economy a little bit but we'll hit inflation a lot and continue to hit inflation but we're still only going to hit the economy just a little bit. josh brown >> in 1994, alan greenspan
recognized that the economy was overheating, but he wanted to prolong the economic cycle by not letting it get white hot so he was able to both using the regular meetings and in intra meeting through a series of rate hikes, 75 basis points shocked the market and one or two 50s and he got his way and we didn't have a recession in 1994 and 1995. the expansion was prolonged, and it worked. i would love to tell you that i think that that's a possible scenario right now, but the other headwinds are just way different than they were in that soft landing instance. so there is precedent that the thing though that differs about '94 from now, '94 wasn't an emergency. this is an emergency and there are a lot of aspects of the current inflation, and jim knows this as well as i do, maybe even better than i do, that are not
under the fed's purview. so the fed will continue to do what they think is the right thing to do, but it might not be enough or it might be too late, and i think when you look at some of the drought-driven electricity shortages that the world is dealing with, that's like more, right back into the supply chain issue, so when you look at manufacturing incapable of delivering things across asia, across europe, it's like what is the fed supposed to do about that the only tool they have is to crush demand they can't make semiconductors so like this is going to be an issue and now you get into the fall, now you are seeing the europeans adding to natural gas inventory at the fastest rate in history since they've been tracking the data. that might not be enough, and there's a whole geopolitical angle to this that works against the fed. what are they supposed to do about that broke an armistice between
ukraine and russia it's foolish to think -- >> sorry to interrupt. jason, on this whole note rick reader of blackrock, "still while it's absolutely imperative that the fed get the currently high rate of inflation under control, we are concerned about the potential for the central bank to overdo the tightening and undo much of the progress that has been made in recovering from the pandemic shock. there's two sides to this, one believing jason, they'll be especially resolute as the fed chair said today, he didn't have to invoke voelker. he did he didn't have to use the word forcefully, he did p the other side of the coin is they overdo it, crush the economy and have to reverse themselves that's in some people's dialogue as well. >> absolutely, scott that's the other piece, just like you mentioned overdoing it will push this economy into a recession and
that's obviously problematic, but i think there's obviously space, if they do overdo it, there's space for them to cut and move back, like a a parentally a lot of the markets took that from conversations last month, and the fed speak. so i think really again to my point, i think they have to essentially almost overdo it i think they have to do that here because inflation is a much larger problem, in my view >> yes weiss, you want in >> yeah, i do. just a couple of points. jim always is referring to, hey, we're back to where we were before russia invaded ukraine. inflation was running hot then so getting back to there is not a victory, number one. number two, some commodity prices coming down 40% still gets you at three times where the fed is targeting inflation
so even if we see it drop 40% to 6%, they still got to be very aggressive and in terms of unemployment being so low right now, take a look at the labor participation rate it's very low, coming off the lowest in modern memory going back decades and decades as that goes up and is t is rising not just because people coming back to work from the pandemic but inflation killed them and depleted their savings. you'll see unemployment rise and a lot of those jobs of low-paying jobs that don't offset the inflation look, there's always another side to the argument to me this is so blatantly obvious that i don't understand -- >> jimmy is the no the only one with that view it's not like jimmy is -- >> agreed. >> -- sitting on an island by himself. tom lee is coming up after the
break. >> no -- >> he's going to paint a picture which messes with farmer jim brenda, how do i take the fed chair's words today, how do i take everybody in the committee today, their words and put it into action in terms of the markets? if you think rates are going to go up like some still do, rates haven't peaked, that's some of the commentary tech has gotten beaten up good over the last couple of weeks. what do i want to do here? >> i think we have to consider especially given jay powell's words today maintaining a stance for a restricted period of time. if we have slower economic growth for a prolonged period of time we have to think about how do you position that environment if you want to stay invested and looking at these cyclical
sectors that have done so well over the last few years, i think we could see a shift in market leadership back to high-quality tech companies, because when you look at those cyclical sectors, many of them are just going to have a hard time growing if they don't have economic growth at their back the energy sector is the exception in the basket. broadly speaking cyclicals may have a tougher go because they've had phenomenal earnings growth over the last few years their compareisons are tougher. you look at large cap and high-quality tech these companies continue to grow, albeit slower than the last few years but i think we're in a place now where we know they have tough comparisons, we know many were pandemic beneficiaries and their stock prices have in many cases significantly underperformed the market for this year-to-date period and the one-year period. so i think we could start to see
a shift back into many of those names. so i'm talking about names like googles of the world, the amazons of the world, valuations much more reasonable, their businesses could potentially or are slowing a little bit we know that and know they will likely hold up better in some cases than many of the cyclical industries out there >> weiss, i think you got to bounce, you got to go? is that what i'm told? >> yep >> you go, thanks for joining us i really appreciate you coming on i wanted you to help mix it up post powell. that's steve weiss up next is tom lee, our "halftime headliner" he gives his take on what powell said, what it means and you should do with your money. 6:00 eastern a cnbc special report: "the fed factor" hosted by dominic chu and steve liesman. we're back in two. [ "back to life" by soul ii soul ]
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two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. we're back we are at we'll call it session lows, almost a 2% decline for the dow, better than that for the s&p 500, and the nasdaq is approaching a 3% decline, it's down 358, almost 59, 12,280 on the back of that very hawkish speech from fed chair jay powell we bring in our halftime headliner, tom lee is with us
here now, managing partner head of research there. what was your take from powell, tom, and what does it mean for your outlook for stocks? >> powell gave tough on inflation talk it's consistent with the fed stance for all of 2022 so i don't think it should be a surprise to investors, but i think one of the takeaway staker me is the fed will respond when inflation is on a trajectory to be under control it's something the fed doesn't want to attempt to forecast and because the markets are nervous and don't have visibility, they assume it will be around for a long time. i think this is where people who are constructive on markets should focus on the drivers for accelerated inflation have essentially evaporated housing inventory levels are now at the highest almost
approaching to where they were in the great financial crisis. durable goods like cars and furniture which became goods for a while as the prices rose, demand rose, they're now turning into no demand even as prices fall you have outright deflation and durables and on the subject of wages, we look at some of the high-frequency measures, job opens from indeed.com labs, they're down 40% wage growth doesn't have to get down to zero to meet the fed's inflation target it's implicit. it needs to fall 1.5% in terms of wage growth if it's running at 5, 3% to 4% is consistent with overall-inflation of two i don't think the fed is sitting here wanting to crush asset markets but they're not easy and the stock market thinks it's cheaper than the bond market the ten-year is stable i think this sell-off will end
up being bought. there is a belief inflation will be more ingrained into the system than some people think for a variety of reasons it's the story that was written in "the journal" geopolitics, protectionism, only increase in global demand for commodities, wages and because of the job market that don't go down all that much, the demand for housing, et cetera, around the globe. are you considering that at all? you sound fully dismissive of that view. >> they're all credible points but at the end of the day the alchem alchemy what is the shakeout for expectations for inflation surveys show for the third consecutive month, really the third final, inflation expectations are falling on the one-year and five-year despite everyone's claim that inflation is even getting
stronger, from a consumer's perspective, it's weakening. look at the market base measures of inflation, so if you look at the swaps market, the one-year is at 2.7 and pinned there since mid-june i don't think that the inflationary outcome of the factors is accelerating factor it's inflation i can't say where inflation will be in 12 months. it's the downside versus consensus. >> farmer jim, who is sitting next to me, jim leventhal said 50 in september, 25 after that and 25 after that. what are your own expectations i need to know that in order to discuss your year-end target which is lofty for the s&p >> between now and year-end the fed will do 100 and 125 basis points of tightening, on track with their explicit targets, so it could be 75 in september, and then 25 in the two meetings
after that there is a misconception because the fed is raising rates the markets have to fall it depends on how much is priced into market expectations already and again, i think that's something we've been focusing on if you look at the rates market, it's already priced in the fed being pretty aggressive intoier year-end and staying tight throughout 2023. >> what happens if they send the economy as a result into a recession? you could cite any statistics you want that say well, stocks can go up when rates go up but these are unprecedented times. so many respects that do you actually think that they can raise interest rates as much as powell leads you to believe they will today and at the same time the economy doesn't go into recession, the stock market doesn't fall out of bed in any great way either >> great question, scott
s&p's peak to trough was down 27%, so it's already discounted at that point, close to a 90% probability of a recession is the cron tra incoming data painting a picture where this recession is unfolding faster or bigger or things holding up better this is turning out to be a soft landing. durable goods have a pull-through because shortages and double ordering and look at used cars. that's crashing potentially as quickly as the stay-at-home stocks racrashed. that's not a recession that's an adjustment in demand, a disinflation so a benefit for consumers. there are a lot of mixed currents the market's priced in a recession. a soft landing to me seems more probable
josh brown, you have a question for tom lee? >> i'll read this sentence from what jerome powell said "history shows the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting, our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now. that really sounds like the hammer, and that really sounds like the labor statistics are about to get like a lot worse and maybe the 11 million fake jobs don't exist in a world where money actually costs something, venture capitalists can't raise $1 billion for getting out of bed, et cetera. what do you think about that statement and what might the implications be into year end?
>> josh, that's an important statement. powell is not just talking about the labor report itself having to show softness that's a communication statement to employers, to be cautious on hiring once you do that, if you like you're saying, if you take the number of open jobs down from 11 to something smaller and companies slow expansion plans, that doesn't necessarily create a recession. that helps slow and reduce wage inflation expectations, that's exactly what the fed wants i think that statement's actually appropriate if fits where we are in the labor market we need job unemployment rates to soar 5%, 6%, 7% it means we need to get wage growth down t comes from employers' hiring plans and individual expectations. a lot of the growth in the employment market the last two months has been multijobholders. single job holders are declining
for two months it's not a great labor market as it is. >> tom, do you think that, you say "i am more confident of greater than 4800 on the s&p." that's 700 points higher from here you're not ready to give up on 5100 you can get there without the idea and the belief by the market that the fed is going to pivot? i don't see how you can. scott, it's a great question. it's difficult to seem bullish on days like today but two things that were sources of inflation surprised in 2022, the biggest contributors, one was used cars and the second was travel most people think it will stop contributing to inflation. these are core goods and services used cars could start subtracting from cpi as early as next month and travel especially air fare could be deflationary
into the rest of this year that means we could actually see significant undershooting inflation, already the swaps market's looking for less than 2%, monthly inflation onnulized into year end. it could have zeros and negatives. it will prove again that the market's done a lot of work for the fed keeping financial conditions tight >> i want to give you -- jim leventhal is on my left. i want to give you a chance to respond and engage on somebody who is in your camp. it's hard to find a lot of people who are as bullish as you s see the picture over the next four, five, six months and beyond >> i feel i'm doing a lot of defending myself and i don't think that's the right way of doing it i'm trying to say here is the data that i'm looking at, whether it's the economic data on inflation or more importantly what i'm seeing and hearing from
company reports. having said that, tom just gave me a piece of data that troubles me a little bit, resays based on indeed.com, number of job openings are going counsel i heard what josh said about fake job offerings that's been out there for a while. i'm trying to juxtapose that with a "wall street journal" article from two days ago said what we know, the continuing jobless claims levels are so low, people get laid off and find a new job amazon house worker gets laid off, they go across the street to the airport and baggage handler job and pay raises are continuing in that context tom i'm troubled by what you're saying you said you need to see wages come down and that "wall street journal" article is saying they're going the other way. what are we hoping for i no he we're in a good news is bad news environment i'm telling you good news is good news. am i wrong >> jim, i think that there's a
lot of math that people throw out and i want to just point out where some of the math was historically wage growth today average hourly earnings is growing at about 5%. if you look at the entire period when core cpi or pc, whatever you want to use, was running around 2, by the way, only 29% of all since 1950 have been under 2.9% so it's an unrealistic target wage growth was around 3% to 4%, roughly 300% the fed doesn't need wages to fall they just need the job market to soften enough so wage growth slows to around the 3.5% level that's how you get to the fed's target so i think what's really important is, that can be achieved by the job market collapsing, but it could be achieved by everything you pointed out, making it harder to switch jobs, openings pulled, confidence about wages and
demands for higher wage is weakening. these are things that could happen and part of the fed's communication. i think that the statement josh made is good it sends a chill to employers and sends chills to anyone looking and reading and wanting a job to make people think twice about switching. look what happened with housing already. house something in a pretty big downt downturn it's not going to start rising because someone thinks there's a fed pivot. we're already in a down word spiral for housing that's what you need to cool inflation >> tom, lwe'll leave it there see you soon, tom lee of fundstrat joining us today tech is taking a beating today. coming up the one mega cap tech stock you should stay away from even on the dips, a big call from one major tech investor we reveal who that is and why he thinks it and debate it in our call of the day. we're back on "the half" after this
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breaking news, ylan mui in d.c. with that >> we're getting some new insight into why the fbi decided to raid president trump's residence at mar-a-lago. the judge unsealed a redacted copy of the affidavit that the fbi relied on to conduct that search and it says that the 15 boxes that president trump turned over to the national archives back in january included 184 unique documents with classification markings including 67 that were marked as confidential, 92 marked at secret and 25 that were marked as top secret, in addition there were some documents that included markings that indicated they stemmed from conversations between a cia officer and a confidential human source
overseas, aka a spy. we are going through the 38-page redacted affidavit here and we'll bring you more details as we have it president biden was asked about this earlier today and he said that he would let the justice department determine whether there was a national security implications of this investigation. back over to you >> thank you for the update, ylan mui in washington, d.c., for us with the latest on the breaking news. we'll pivot and talk about a big stock of the week, nvidia. it is under pressure again today along with us. we told you the rest of technology shares are down 11% since the earnings war are watch warning earlier this month and 50% off of the high. paul meeks thinks there's more downside and says there's not a buyer on the dip it's our call of the day josh, we want to turn to you
first. jason snipe, he says and i quote, in an interview with street signs asia, "the way i look at nvidia, i think unfortunately it can go lower. i would not be a buyer on the dip. every time they report or communicate to us they're lowering numbers again you could not buy a stock even if it becomes relatively inexpensive when numbers are going down. their problem is a third of their sales come from gaming and you could read crypto because quite often these chips are used for crypto mining and of course that asset class is absolutely been crushed so josh, what's your response to a well-known investor like paul meeks saying don't touch this thing? >> well, i don't know that's saying never touch it. i guess maybe -- >> saying don't touch it now >> okay. that's fine. i owned it 10x ago so i'll stay with what i would say on nvidia
specifically is that it's not a mystery that demand for chips used in crypto mining is going to be nonexistent right now. everyone understands that. the question becomes this was a $320 stock that's now $160 are we saying this is a ref laition? is this news to anyone on earth? i don't think so so a lot of the concern about that segment of the business, even if 100% of it is not in the stock, you have to think at least 80% to 90% of the concern about that segment has been priced in. the market's not totally blindsided by this the second thing though that i would say, this has always been a high beta stock, which means it's feast or famine, and when i described high beta, let me put some numbers to that this has a beta of 1.65. for every 10% move in the s&p 500 in both directions, nvidia has moved historically 16.5% so think about that.
we're in a down trend. tech specifically is in a massive down trend, a legitimate bear market. nvidia is a $450 billion market cap, very highly visible technology stock expect volatility. expect 60% more volatility than the overall stock market historically, but understand that works in both directions and at some point, a lot of the negativity about things like gaming will be fully priced into this story >> so jason snipe, did you see it the same way? what's your view here? you've owned it on a less smaller period of time than josh brown has. >> yes, but i agree with a lot of what j.b. just said if you're looking at gaming as an example of 30% of revenue, i think this has been more of a path to normalization. there is so much demand pulled forward through the pandemic, so i'm not shocked by those numbers, but again, the print
wasn't great it was a mess on revenue but data center is up 60%. i think there's real resiliency there. yes, it was up 80% last quart sore there's some normalization happening there and likely some more volatility in the short run but they sit at the beltways of innovation for me is still a long-term hold nothing to disrupt i would be looking to buy on dips over the next couple months. >> okay. all right. good to get your perspectives. both of you. mike santoli gives us his perspective next it's hisidy rdhewee ck in two minutes. football, housewives, football, housewives, football, housewives... whoops. oh no... the housewives are on the field. i repeat, the housewives are on the field. i just want to talk! yeah! who flips a table? get your tv together with the best of live and on demand.
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all right. senior markets commentator mike santoli is here. someone suggested this was powell showing you his claws >> i would say so. he clearly doesn't want the wall of worry to get too low. is it notable the repricing we had since the speech in the stock market more dramatic than the bond market? the bond market was the range of where rates are going to the notion that the recession scenario might be the medicine and not just the side effect that's what the stock market is trying to sort out. >> you were the one who
suggested earlier or asked the question as to whether a soft landing was the goal at this point. i think it is a really interesting point you make and a certain fair one at this point >> i think it is part of that same conversation. is recession the point you have to get unemployment up to a certain level i think the soft landing is the de de d desdls sired outcome powell's message is assuming they will not get unexpected help on that front or not count on it. that could change. tom lee was saying the leading indicators of inflation may be more friendly. >> this person to your right sandwiched in the middle to us
thinks that too. >> hypothetical, two days ago, if i told you from there to then, we were down 1% on the s&p 500. you know where i'm going would your hair been on fire >> no, clearly not the way to do that is pan out a little bit we're at the august lows maybe .50% of the august lows. that's where you say the cushion is out of whack. it is not out of bounds. >> i will see you in a few we will see what happens the rest of the day. that's mike santoli. we have "final trades" next on "the half. just $30/mo, taxes and fees included. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com.
i think overtime needs to be part of your viewing at 4:00 eastern time see how we end up and what it means for the days and weeks ahead. joe will be with me and liz young. we have roger ferguson as well what did he hear and what kind of action will go with the words from the fed chair today we hope he'll tell us. see you then. let's do final trades. brenda >> i have google if we look at the digital ad market and see continued slowing, we think search is ski still a very relevant place to
spend dollars on if we look at google's profitability, cloud business should begin to improve. at 18 teimes earnings, it is a good story >> okay. good stuff jay snipe? >> i like chevron. i like energy space period free cash flow yield over 11%. a strong quarter last quarter. i like to stay long here. >> okay. josh brown, what do you have for me >> oil and gas producers sat out most of the bull market this summer that bull market is vreversing. ieo. this is what i'm doing >> do you own cheinere is that yours? >> yup new record highs this week >> as you have been pointing out. thank you. okay farmer jim wrap it up >> exxonmobil.
a fairly non trcontroversial ply easy way to be in the energy >> given the bpull back. i'll see everybody in overtime in a few hours that does it for us. "the exchange" is here now thanks, scott. i'm jon fortt. we must keep at it until the job is done. jay powell delivering a hawkish speech that another big rate hike could be coming and more pain ahead for the economy what does that pain look like and how do you position your portfolio? and tech hit hard on the prospect of more rate hikes. one of my guests says stick with it it may get ugly, but the bottom is near. and
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