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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 8, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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cataclysmic event in the marke , a crash, and that causes a credit event. and that brings the fed to a much softer place, if you want to use that word? >> it would absolutely happen. that kind of volatility concentrated in that short period of time, no doubt about it. credit would not be unscathed and then you are back to the fed coming to us. >> see you tomorrow, mike's last word. best money begins now. right now on fast, the feds not backing down. chair powell bowing to take strong measures against inflation. stocks not buying it. could it be that they want powell to go dig now? plus, mortgage rates spiked to their highest level since the financial crisis. we will drill down on this could impact banks and builders period later, are you ready for some football? how about sports betting? i record hiking season and the wages of to take the nfl by storm. we will be joined by the master of the tele-straighter, the one and only steve kornacki of nbc.
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i melissa lee, we are live at the nasdaq market set in time square. kim, ken, and courtney joining us once again some code. we start off with a big market puzzle. stock indices all closing higher for the second straight day even as jerome powell doubles down on hawkish policy stance. the fed chair saying rates rise to fight inflation until the job is done. expectations were for a 75 basis point hike jump into 86% on his comments. equity market seems to shrug this all off. the next report is around the corner but could we get a reason for the fed to get more aggressive for longer? i know that we don't usually talk about claims, but the claims number, very strong labor market which adds an interesting twist to this whole puzzle that we have. >> the claims number, you have had two sides, continuing and then you have had some jobless claims numbers show strength. we definitely have some sense
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that the participation rate in the labor market is starting to move higher, which could bring down -- excuse me, bring up joblessness, meaning that more people on a percentage basis are out of work. powell's comments today, i think are critical. 75 basis points, i think the market rallying in the face of that is a combination of, i think the fed has managed expectations. we are about to go into required period for the fed this weekend. then i think we have a truly quiet period leading into the fed weekend and i think it sets up for a window where into that cpi number, headline inflation will come down. gas prices at the last read were five dollars, they will be about $3.78 per gallon, based on this number. the headline will be better. this is a long way of saying that although he is resolute and we believe the fed for now, i think the market has an opportunity to rally. i think the expectations have been built up the market sentiment is so poor that we were set up going into this. >> the language that he used, i
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am surprised probability didn't go higher than 86%. we will asked forthrightly, committed, strongly. forthrightly is a very underrated word. >> it says something. >> as they have been doing, is 75 basis points. i read that like oh, that's some cards now. >> i don't know if we get that much higher than 86% ever, but i feel like -- we had that big question mark, i think none of us on the desk thought that he could have, at all. he certainly made that absolutely clear, two fridays ago or whenever that was, absolutely clear and the market reacted as such, right? so, to have him repeat it, again, i am not surprised the market did not react again. we will see what some of the data is, but i do think that we are still so far away from where they need to be, that with 75 we still have a long
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way to go beyond 75, they should keep going, for sure. i know one thing we always focus on is how strong the dollar gets but with the ecb move that is a bit of cover for the dollar, right? they will be raising. >> the ecb's move was the biggest move ever since 1999 when it was formulated. so, while you were sleeping, there was some history made their. >> discloses the differential between here and there a bit which helps, certainly. it's going to be about what he says, obviously, after they announced their policy decision. >>) think at this point the markets have already priced in about likely 75 basis points will happen, but nothing in the macro picture has really changed that much versus a couple of weeks ago. we are continuing to get a lot of data points. the said handset over and over again we will be data dependent, so we need to say what the data comes out to show. if we are seeing cpi numbers which are coming down, that will help the consumer and if we do see the labor force participation rate, which jim mentioned, that is the hope that it will be enough to bring
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unemployment down. , not 75 basis points but with a after that. >> what are your thoughts about the market lack of reaction to powell, today? >> yeah. one thing that was very noticeable was the underperformance from apple, amazon, google, and microsoft, relative to the rest of the market here. obviously it was not a riproaring day, especially after the 2% gains we had yesterday. i will say this. being out here not code this week, we saw the ceo of apple, as amazon, and is also about all speak in the last 48 hours and i will tell you this, all of them feel pretty confident about their businesses. they are not focused on the crosscurrents, and the headwind, they all have exposure to rising wages and other inputs that are stressing margins. walking away, that you're not
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feeling the combined ceo $6 trillion in market cap and $1 trillion in sales are all that bothered. i think you got to read the tea leaves a little bit, the body language from some big ceos is not that bad, right now. >> apples performance, relative to the market, has really underperformed in the last 15 days. when markets peaked in mid april, excuse me, mid-august, apple sold off 6% more than the s&p during that time. when we were talking about the market from deck one, 2021 is the triple cues for the as nasdaq and s&p started to fill the big tech stocks, apple totally outperformed. and we talked about it, and we talked about the dynamics behind why it would be outperforming. interesting here, even though everything in the release two days ago was as expected. there are different expectations about keeping asp's flat in the u.s., maybe
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there was a sense that you can kill demand and that is something, but again, the performance of apple relative to the market, watch that. >> hey, dan, karen, big fan. let me ask you about the sentiment, there. a lot of ceos like amazon -- i'm sorry, alphabet, snap, talking about spending money more wisely, right? they are talking about -- it was not the era anymore of growth, growth, growth. bringing in the budget. that seems to have changed. microsoft is not hiring as much. do you think that discipline is because you are concerned about the growth side of the business or just because that is the way they can improve profitability? >> yeah, that is a great point, karen, definitely something which did come out this week, but i think it has to do with visibility, and i think it is the lack of visibility and also the places in which there are
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exposure. i don't think any of these companies coming into 2022 thought they would see the sort of slowdown and disruption that they saw in europe. maybe some of them are thinking about, what does globalization, all the cost associated with off shoring away from china, maybe that will be a big 2023 story. about these companies and you think about the monopolies that they have, their ability to forecast, i would just say it seems prudent. one thing i would say on the hiring front, i know that there was definitely commentary about google as it relates to cost. amazon spent the better part of the first half of this year, talking about rationalizing some costs. jazzy, the ceo of the company, did say that they will be hiring the next year out. i thought that was interesting relative to some commentary that we have heard over the last two months from other big tech companies. >> the overall message, dan,
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huge percentage of the s&p 500 market cap, were wildly bullis . would we react to that? and yet, the converse is true. dan, you're going to say? >> no, that's a great point. i think the point of there, is that this is an earnings blackout sort of period , and i didn't think there was anything that you kind of just splintered out of what they were saying. this means they are going to miss q3 and identity for. that is the good news. it has to do with the fact of the matter is, said it might be taking their foot off the pedal, there is time or will be in the next couple of months to start thinking about a but what about a 2023 michael clark. again, investors are not really investing at this point of what q4 guidance looks like. it really is the point where
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you have to start modeling 2023. let's be frank, with some of the sort of data that we have been seeing, the way that lumber and gas and freight and all this stuff has been rolling over, maybe there is a decent case that rates are probably going as high as they will this cycle. >> let's get to what some people consider safe haven sectors, utilities. xlu is down 18%, up almost 18% from jim lowe's. new highs, there is a rate connection, let's bring in carter worth, what are you looking at? >> hi, team. yes, to dan's point, there is a very distinct possibility that we are seeing a peak moment in rates, and it isn't random that utilities are acting fairly well. we do know this, before we get to charts, it is one of only two sectors up on the year, of course energy up big. and we also note, to your
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point, that it is very defensive. utility has outperformed staples and healthcare, consumer staples. let's look at the charts, and then, maybe we can end with a pointer to. for charts that are all the same, it is just different lines, different arrows, different annotations. the first is no drawings. next one? one way to draw the lines, it is a fairly well defined bottoming out formation. the june low, it bottoms, and so does the market. look at the second iteration. people love to name their patterns, it does not have to be called cup and handle, it is what i set up is, a reversal, before breaking out. then finally, the fourth in the same timeframe, an instrument, doesn't matter what this is, it happens to be utilities, but it is toying with the prospect of breaking out to new highs. i think the important thing is that utilities are sort of thought of as dull and boring.
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yet, total return is one of the most important features of investing. so consider this, just go back 25 years to september of 1997. the s&p has doubled performance of the s&p utility sector. but, the total return utilities versus the total return s&p are dead even. meaning, utilities total return have kept up with the s&p total return since september of 1997, and the trajectory has been more study, meaning a higher quality return series. >> that is a staggering staff. carter, thank you. >> he's always got big steps. i mean, i am absolutely stunne . since 1997? the total return equal to that of the entire market? that's amazing. >> the whole time that cnbc has been on the air you could have just interested in utilities. by utilities every day. we are joking carter, thank you. courtney, do you like utilities? >> we are in a period right now where regardless of going into
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a recession, if the federal force us there or not, we are going into a slowing growth environment. the question is how severe that is, what everyone is wondering. either way, utilities are defensive and tend to do well in that type of environment as we see commodity prices falling, interest rates coming down, i think that will benefit. it could be worth a look. >> where they are not defensive is when you look at their valuations. 15% of xlu in terms of the way they have sold the utilities etf and has outperformed utilities etf by 10% over the last three months. it trains around 28 or 29 times for endings but historically, over the last couple of years has traded expensive to the s&p which was also in a much higher multiple. i will just say a couple of these companies, in particular, really benefit from investment themes around renewables and est. they are in offering investors the opportunity to be in hot spaces. >> too expensive? >> you know, i almost never look at the space, though
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clearly in hindsight, i should have just put money in utilities. that would have been so boring, there. you know, i guess i just feel like, there is a lot of stuff i would ather be in, you have to feel like you can outperform the market, right? and, so, i have never -- >> but isn't -- being defensive, in a market like this? -- >> i am always long, right? do i think about do i want to have shorts on that i think would benefit from a slowing economy like talk about birth and things like that, that is the sort of way that i am defensive, probably, i should really rethink that, somewhat. >> maybe we should do a whole segment on utilities. >> record attendance. >> we have a big after-hours movers coming your way. shares of rh, z scaler and dock you sign, numbers next. plus, junk-bond entering a default danger zone? one money manager flagging and
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welcome back to fast money. shares are volatile after the home reported being on the top and bottom lines but worse than expected revenue guidance for the current quarter. courtney has the details. >> the guidance has been all over the place to this point. warning then reporting, then warning again. rh put up a stronger-than- expected quarter with better revenues and stronger adjusted earnings than analyst had anticipated. the furniture retailer said it was due to, quote, faster backlog relief despite the material deteriorating macroenvironment. the company points out continued resistance to promotions, despite competitors doing so. margins improved 350 basis points, partly as a result. third quarter revenue guidance is disappointing. looking for revenues to fall between 15 and 18% year-over year. consensus is for those revenues to fall more than 11%. gary friedman says, expectation
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is will continue to softening in business trends during the remainder of the fiscal year, as a result of ongoing weakness in the housing market over the next several quarters, and possibly longer due to the reserves anticipated interest rate increases and cycling of record cover driven sales levels in 2021. this always seems to warn a little, worried about what is going on macroeconomic labor than still turning in good results. >> it's called sandbagging. inventories up 33% year-over year. is this because the inventory initials issues last year? sort of a one-time bump? >> i think so, high levels of inventories might be eye popping from retailers. this quarter is par for the course. in a lot of cases, you are, to your point,, melissa, levels were considerably lower than what they hoped they would be, looking at your comparison, it looks even more inflated. >> courtney reagan with all the
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details, there. rh is trading higher. do you agree with that move? >> idea. i think that as courtney brought up and i think it is right on point, sandbagging as you call it, which i think is exactly the same, do you remember that a very dire second outlook that they made? everything seemed sort of distraught. that was the worst of the sentiment, and a lot of companies got better things went on. rates were down. i agree with her on the inventory issue as well, i am finding things delivered much quicker, it is not a crazy expensive price for this name. i would take what he says about the outlook with a grain of salt, because, i always prefer a company that outperforms them under promises and over delivers, which they like to do.
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i would not be too concerned. it makes sense to me that the stock is shrugging off. >> back around 240, i don't think they can know what the outbreak is but we talk about their demo, i talk about non promotional, on the outlook north of 20%. we know the interest rate hit to the housing sector hurts. the multiple to me on a trailing basis is obviously very cheap. the question is what will they do next year? i think if they hold the line, to your stocks are up 40%, they are not fun to do in 23 what they did in 22. but, i want to buy this stock it is just not right here. it rally to 63% and has pulled back about 20%. a bit of a relief, frankly, i don't think you chase it. >> there are expensive price points for people that have more money, insulated during a recession. >> exactly the point i was
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going to bring up right here. the entire macroeconomic factors are not affecting all consumers the same right now. you are starting to hit higher income consumers. really starting to impact them but so far, i think they are powering through that which is optimistic. >> we have more earnings alerts in the software space. both companies reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines, guidance coming in strong. steve has there guidance from the report. >> to pandemic cloud software darlings are surging, let's kick it off with dock you sign up 60% after a beating across the board, the company reporting and eps of $0.44 adjusted versus the $0.44, revenue also the $620 million, and some rosy guidance, beating expectations for both the current quarter and in line for
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the rest of the year. let's move on to z-scaler, revenue topping estimates at $318 million versus $305 million . of about 5% after hours. z-scaler also providing better than expected guidance for its current quarter and fiscal year. we are getting some signals that may be i.t. spend is not falling as much as feared. >> steve, thanks. what you think about the pups in the shares? >> ducky sign is very interesting to me. 50% revenue growth in the two years during the pandemic, 2020 and 2021, massive decelerations is a trend that we have been talking about for the longtime. lows recently at 85% from its all-time highs. last summer, think about that. maybe the valuations are a bit
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more reasonable for next year's sales, still about 10% short of interest here, listen, raises for companies like this, on the compares, i think you will have really good trading opportunities. additionally, some of these companies are not going to be standalone. they got bailed out during the pandemic because there is a tremendous need for their services, but ultimately, i expect to see some of these companies that are kind of one trick ponies. >> what does this mean, if anything, karen, to a person who might have a short in the software etf? >> it might be somebody i know well. i think i have to rethink it. ducky sign was something like 75 three weeks ago? docusign. notice 53 or 54 whatever going into today? is is clearly a big bounce back. i think i have to consider covering but it is sort of played out. i won't cover it all but i will cover some. >> is the extension that hire
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multiple names get a rest bite for a little bit? >> you are seeing that, but i think the respite is in the guidance. even bookings looking out, the expectation by the market is that the condo 30% or 32%, and they are getting close to that, here. this is a company that is really not making money. this is a company that really sets smack in the middle of where the market has been punishing companies in the software space, even though security is a hotspot. i am not chasing it, i think multiple stocks have another run but i agree with jen on docusign. >> more fast money to come, here is what is next.
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let's get to courtney reagan for an update on the death of the queen. courtney? >> hi, melissa. flowers are piling up in front of windsor castle, and mourners are lighting candles to pay respects to queen elizabeth and her 70 years on the british throne. praise continues to come in from all over the world. pope francis sent a telegram commending her service to the nation, and steadfast faith. former president obama calls her a beacon of hope and stability, and brazil's
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government has declared three days of mourning to honor britain's longest-serving monarch. on capitol hill, senate majority leader chuck schumer said he was a great admirer of the queen, and marveled that she came to power when president harry truman was in office. he noted that she was the first british monarch to address a joint session of congress. >> it is hard to fathom, that today, we have to say goodbye, because after all, most americans, to say nothing of the british people, have never lived in a world without her majesty the queen. >> after 70 years as the heir to the british throne, prince charles is now king charles iii. he held that title longer than anyone in british history. at 73, king charles is also the oldest british monarch to take the throne. he is nine years older than the runner-up, king william iv. melissa? back to you. >> thank you. courtney reagan, just a shocking news event, today. i would imagine there is so much more interest in the queen's long life, her long
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reign, nowadays, and people will be documentaries and the series like the crown. i was thinking to myself i wanted to rewatch the crown and i will not be alone this weekend. >>. this has been your job for a long time. okay, how do we take that information, what does that mean. i know you don't want to be mercenary or anything like that but then you're thinking, all right, the crown, a lot of binge watching of the crown, what does that mean for netflix? so, you could do with more wins watching, that is an interesting thought. i feel dumb that i did not think of it. not surprised that you immediately thought of it because that's how you think but then we are talking about tourism to london, people are going to want to feel close to the queen, sort of being there even though she is not there. and also, a combination of the pound being at, i don't know, a 35 year low? give or take? that is a help to the uk when they need it.
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things are not great, just a terribly sad day. i mean, i'm such an angle file, as courtney said, everyone we know, their entire life this is the only monarch there has ever been. and it seemed there would ever be. as crazy as that sounds. >> it seems shocking, even though it should not be shocking at all. her death takes place on a day where there was a historic ecb rate hike, the backdrop to her death is in england, a uk that is just strapped, right? >> and you think about brexit and the uk pushing back on some of the structural issues in the european union, especially around the currency, but, you know, it is interesting if you look at where uk equities have actually, there the best performing developed equity market in the world, some of that is a function of a weaker currency, and some of it is a function of at least relative balance. some of the most iconic big
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companies across europe actually sit in the uk. >> we will be right back. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. ♪ ♪
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welcome back to fast money, a troubling trend is growing in the bond market. started to climb, this could be an early warning sign for serious challenges ahead for the economy. frank is in the space managing a leveraged oan fund. he is a bank loan lead and asset management, thanks for being with us. >> hi, melissa, thank you. >> so, things are getting worse, but can you put in into context for us? how bad is it, so far? >> sure. in the last few weeks, even the last couple of months, we started to see downgrades pick up. we have had four straight months of more downgrades than upgrades. we have seen five defaults in the last five weeks. many of them anticipated. and, another data point relate to track, here at new fleet is loans that are trading below $.80 on the dollar. we are seeing that pickup, as well. having said that, when we put
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all that data in context, it is still very early. directionally, that data is perhaps concerning, but, when we look at history it is still very light. default at less than 1%, today, well below the historic average of 3.5%. defaults were 6%, back in the 2000 and 2002, you know, the last traditional recession in my mind. loans trading below 80 are 3% of the market. that is up from 1% to start the year, but there have been periods where we have seen 10% of the market, you know, trading below 80. downgrades and upgrades as well. >> defaults to rise is a foregone conclusion in your eye, it will bubble levels. i wonder which sectors will felid the most this time around.
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>> this time around, it looks to me like there will be defaults or distress, dispersion will be wiped. every industry has a credit or two with the story. so, i don't see housing driving it, or tech driving at, or cyclical driving it, i think there is a name or two, everywhere, that may come under stress. the reason for that is that, over the last few years, you know, even in the leveraged finance market has grown, and there are borrowers across industries that may have low interest coverage, or debt burdens that they may not be able to sustain, and it wasn't driven by any one industry. >> frank, it is kera. thanks for being on. we have not seen a defaults move a lot yet, but how do you think about the setup? are companies in better shape? worse shape? the same as prior cycles, where defaults really picked up?
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>> i think that borrowers have done a great job after covid, taking cost out, raising prices, managing margins. balance sheets are in good shape. there is not a lot of debt due in the next couple of years and the refinancing rate happens. pushed out on the runway. i would say, by and large, borrowers are in good shape. but, there are borrowers at the margin that will be impacted. when capital markets dry up like yesterday, you file for bankruptcy. i think borrowers are by and large in good shape. i would also add about not all defaults are created equal, right? there are situations where you might have an all first lien structure, or a bad business with a bad capital structure, as might be low recovery type situations, but, i think about a borrower like carnival, 1,000,000,001st lien loans,
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that was $25 billion of book value, collateral. the i.t., the customer list the shift, $25 billion of collateral against the first lien loan, that could be a good outcome, right? that could be a higher recovery. so, it is my job, and the job of the analyst team to ferret those out, and find those. >> thanks for joining us. new fleet asset management. we often talk on the show about hyd and what this indicates and seeing a spike higher, et cetera. have you been watching this? >> yeah. the hyd, looking at how those spreads, just googling hy las, it will bring up the bank of america high yield spread. you can see that july 5th that we were at 6%, we got back down to 4.25%, what does it mean in the context of history? first of all, junk bonds owe a
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great deal of gratitude to the fed. every time the fed goes up there and says hey, higher for longer, there is a lot of institutions that reached out the risk curve, this is what the fed did. 6%, if i can get a 3.502 year, think about what people are buying, 6 to 9 months ago, or certainly 12 or 18 months ago. that is the biggest impact here. i think that where liquidity is light, you can also see a buyers strike on a lot of stuff. getting your issues done is one of the biggest problems here. >> and the same goes for a lot of institutional investors buying em debt, now with a spiking dollar, that will come corrections budget you were seeing fifty-year issues in mexico at 3.5%. so, absolutely. >> i think a lot of the concern here is that we are in a high rate environment putting stress on companies hat can't pay back their loans, but there is the idea here that if rates are
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peaking, if we do see them come down, many institutions are still at an average three years away from these loan payments coming due. this might not be as much of a concern as we see rates turnover so i guess the big thing you have to watch is that it's too early to say this is the warning sign. >> shares of life zooming 17% higher today, that is the biggest gain since november of 2020. the odd thing about today's surge is that there seems to be no real catalyst but we did not see any upgrade or market moving news. worth noting the stock is still 16% lower this year. tim, you have said before that you like lyft over uber. >> i like it on a relative value trade. historically i have liked uber over lyft and i am not conveniently flipping and saying i got this right, you've lost a lot of money in both stocks. if you look at uber versus lyft, it is up 6%, are performed by 35% in the last three months. some of the updates we have gotten lately indicate third quarter is off to a good start. also seeing a good balance on the driver side, the sum of the cost base is changing.
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this is what the street wants to hear, relative value here. owning lyft is the better place to me. >> you just bought some lyft. >> i just did last week. i agree with everything tim just said, here, another theme is that alphabet and whammo has a stake in lyft, they have a partnership as they work towards autonomous robo taxis. what i am trying to do is shift through names like you're the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater. when i bought this stock last week, they had 50% under market cap in cash. that stock is up 20 something percent in that period of time, but i think the balance sheet is okay. they are making money, i know that there is plenty of things that we can shake a stick at when it comes to a company like this making money on an adjusted basis but i
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think it is a bit washed out. so, i went into this as an investment but trust me, people, these things can turn into trades, especially if you get big moves this quickly. >> it just dipped, is it? >> let's see if i can get a handle on it. here is the deal. they are supposed to have 20% revenue growth for the next couple of years coming off of a very low base. i see a name like this, clearly an acquisition target, i know there are a lot of big areas where regulators will not allow acquisitions. i do not think this is a space where that is going to be the case. could whammo by a company like this in a heartbeat for a $10 billion enterprise value? >> quick programming note, tim seymour with brian sullivan for this month's cnbc pro talks tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. eastern time, head on over to for more. we are just an hour away from nfl kickoff on nbc kickoff, we are homing in on sports betting over the game. steve kornacki, the master of the tele-straighter joins us next for a look at odds.
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you know what that sound means, the nfl kicks off hours from now $47 million adults are excited to place a bet. the sports teams here to break down interesting odds before week one starts. steve, walk us through. >> let's take you to some high risk investments here if you want to bet the nfl, the futures market, the super bowl odds here to win it all. as the favorite, 6 to 1 odds you can get right now on the bills, to win the super bowl. those numbers could change in a few hours. who are the longest shots on the board? the houston texas with 401 to
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win the super bowl. getting an even money bet on the total number of wins the team get during the regular season. the number is 11 1/2, do you think they will go over or under that number? if you think the bills will win 12 games or more during the regular season you can bet the over. if you think they will win 11 or less, but the under. these are even money bets and the biggest numbers you will see, if you look at it for a bit of a local action, here, the giants expectations with a modest seven wins, the jets even more modest 5 1/2. we have certainly seen that before. here is a fun one, what are the odds a team will go 17-0, you get 15-1 odds that the team go 17-0, i think that might be too low, by the way. the other way around is 0-17, 8 to 1 odds that a team goes winless this season but you can also have fun with some of the
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players, here is the top quarterbacks in the league. who will throw the most touchdown passes among these quarterbacks? tom brady turned 45 a month ago, he comes into this season as the 6-1 favorite that throws the most td passes during the regular season. how about that? >> that's amazing. steve, nice to see you. steve kornacki of nbc, always delivers. always delivers. the meister of the tele- straighter. >> same game parlay on this bills and ramsden? >> i'm not changing anything. >> there you go. >> i have no idea. l.a. rams nfl kickoff tonight is on nbc peacock but for these odds, your to talk about sports sports betting stocks, one of the problems with the sports betting stocks in the past, maybe less now, is a promotional activity they have had to engage in in order to acquire customers. >> that has obviously been a huge cost as you mentioned.
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draft kings, you are expected to see margins go from mid to high 30s, up into the low 40s, and maybe into the mid-40s over the next year or two as they have acquired many customers if they are able to keep them. as economics get better, there's a nice run off the bottom. i remember last summer reading about a deal they did with a company called simple bet, which is, in game betting. kennecke just told us about the odds for teams to win a certain amount of games, or who will win the super bowl, but what about the sort of stuff that guy has been talking about for a long time, which can be the savior of some of these networks spending so much money on sports bets, in game betting, logging onto a long football game you normally wouldn't watch, but you might want to do it because you can make a bet on what the next play is, or run or that sort of thing for that sort of stuff is interesting to me and we will see how that plays out over the next couple of years. >> also boosts viewership. it gets you engaged in watching
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linear tv. obviously you're probably watching on dreaming, but peacock. >> again, those same game parlays, you could be watching the game and have three or four things going on, that is a much more interesting way to bet. it is a lot more profitable for draft kings or sandy will. draft kings is adjusted positive expectations for 23, which is huge, because the whole story has been a cash burn, and addressable market but everyone knows it is getting bigger but these company's have not been profitable and are turning the corner. 70% off of those may lows. coming up, shares have snapped up for the second straight day, but how are options traders playing the social stock? that when we come back. too. and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership.
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the busiest options were actually the weekly 12 straight calls but those were only a day trade because they expire tomorrow. i was looking at an institutional purchase of 5000 of the 12 calls, buyer paid $2.10 for that, that the buyer is betting that snap shares could be at least 13% higher by the third friday in november. >> are you surprised that the rally continued? >> not really. evan spiegel spoke at code yesterday after we did the show, after we talked about it and addressed some of those growth prospects they put out internally that we discussed on the show a bit and i think the audience really liked it. so, again, i think she is laying out a gauntlet, here. basically, they cut staff, they've cut projects that are not important to them, and they are really focused. those targets, for 20% revenue growth and 30% user growth, those are not going to be easy to achieve. if they are successful with a stop down here, i think this stock really starts to work. i think it continues to work
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with expectations, low near- term, high longer-term. >> what is your favorite social stock, or do you not touch the space? >> i think a lot of trouble is that they are extremely high valuations or do not have profits, i think that is really my concern with them. maybe it can be helpful as a longer-term play but snap has come out before with positive forward-looking growth and positive forward-looking revenue and have not met those in the past, because of larger overarching factors. this is a high bar they just set for themselves. i would proceed with some caution, there. wl hank you. weilsee you tomorrow, tomorrow is the full show at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, your final trades. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® e options action is sponsored by sink or swim by td ameritrade. nload necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds.
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time for the final trade. dan mason from the code conference. >> nike showed rick good relative strength, moving to 120. >> garcia? >> eli lilly, i think the process in the pipeline is a stock that can do well. >> karen? >> yes, let's talk about snap made me realize, google is so
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much better. alphabet on the final trade. >> so there, dan. tim? >> matt has the under on the jets, i'm going caesars. >> thanks so much for watching fast money. we will see you back here tomorrow. don't go anywhere, cnbc special blue-chip playbook starts hello everyone and welcome to the cnb special, blue-chip playbook. the goal this hour is to give investors a guide to investing in the blue-chip. large companies, brand names with established trend records and solid dividend earners. we broke in data t


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