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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 23, 2022 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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mechanically we did get back down to 200-week average, whatever these numbers are below and lows and it did bounce -- that's a pretty decent cleanse in a short-term basis. it's like, do you now want the start bet on further downside? >> trying to look for any silver lining as we head into the weekend. all of you as well fast money's new. right now on fast, a bruising end to a painful week on wall street selling triggers by global recession fears, aggressive actions here and around the world. s&p 500 down 22% this year and the question now is, how much lower can it go plus, consumer crush the -- dropping broader than the global market. is this a beginning of an exodus from stocks? later, our chart of the week we're putting the spotlight on a mega cap name that finished the week to close unchanged.
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we'll tell yu this name caught the eye of our traders on the desk tonight, we start off with markets in turmoil. stocks sell off from the open. major averages close well off their session lows but didn't stop the dow from finishing at its worst levels of the year nasdaq tumbled more than 5%. the aggressive actions by the fed and central banks around the world a key catalyst for the selling of stocks and buying of bonds. the yield rising for the 12th day in a row historic move in the currency markets. yet another trigger pushing the markets. dollar index rising 3% this week, hitting a fresh two-decade high today and this morning, the british pound following to its lowest level against the greenback since 1985 the question is, what happens now? naz back has fallen over 30% this year. how much more pain is ahead?
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where will the pain be felt? tim? >> what happened in the uk this morning i think is extraordinary. this is a development market currency behaving like a developing market currency the dollar doing another 1.3%, 1.4% only tightens financial conditions only puts more pressure on multinational capitals that's maybe good news for people who want the fed to have different pieces of am mission the volatility in the market today, which punctuate another really difficult week is coming from global macro. as someone who's been in markets a long time and focused on global macro, this is an extraordinary time it underscores the extreme weakness in the yen and some of the moves in markets that i
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think are challenging central banks. while flipside, policy makers and folk on fiscal policy side are putting more pressure on them that's what's happening in the uk that to me is what pushed markets around today fresh story of today, even though i think this is something we're going to be dealing with for a while. >> how do you piece this together when you see the extraordinary volatility in the bond markets and currency market, yet people say, the credit markets are behaving. there's nothing to look at here, this is ordinary, and everything is thawing. >> it was unorderly in the uk today, and i would argue what's happening in the uk where they're basically cutting taxes and spending more money to make sure inflation stays low -- if i had to describe something, how do you make this worse, you do exactly what they're doing, unfortunately. but that is happening globally here this is what europe's doing. this is what japan is likely going to do, and maybe even the u.s. does at some point in time.
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i have the say, the currency markets matter now they don't always, but now they probably do, because as we talked about last night, they're owl on the edge of going, making par bollic moves and that filters throughout every other market, particularly u.s. equities when we talk about rates going higher that filters into nasdaq. how much lower does the nasdaq go wouldn't surprise me another 10% till we get valuations down where the currency and rate moves don't matter as much. >> jeff mills, how do you put everything together here, particularly when we're watching the ten-year yield today it pushes 3/8 before backing off some that of course has direct implications when it comes to valuations. >> yeah, it absolutely does. i'm going say a bunch of negative stuff i think we all are the practical advice for investors is you should be buying into this weakness, so if
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we say anything positive today, maybe that will be it. the move in rates has been staggering, and i think the thing that's more troubling is what the fed is doing today, going to did a month or two from now, that's not going to impact the economy for, what, another year all of these things impact the economy with some sort of a lag, so by rule, the fed is feeling around in the dark here, and it's really clear that they're going air on the side of crushing growth, and as we keep saying that means we're going to have a hit to earning, and that probably means we also have, to bd's point, the steady state multiple in the markets which is lower than we're use to. we could certainly have an oversold balance as we move into the fourth quarter sentiments is poor maybe you get a slightly softer inflation, and you can see the markets move but a loft these things are typically associated with really durable long-term market bottom i just haven't seen. usually you see the curve resteepen into positive territory.
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we're not close. vic's just above 30. lot of things that tell me there's probably more downside >> they said a bunch of negative things to end the week touchdown terrible week on wall street and head into the weekend, but here's one positive, the s&p tested lows and we finished above. isn't that good news >> sure, and i'll take your positive news and raise you one. i think there is some psychological demand to purchase at that because we saw such pretty violent increase and appreciation from those lows with that said i think that's the limit of what i can say that sounds rosey it's my job to give you my true feelings about things and i think they're well known at this point. just kind of piggy backing on the currency move i think there's two things that are pivotal here one is the carry trade that
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speaks to the japanese yen sell-off and why we'll continue to see people borrow in that currency and deploy in the u.s. markets. then as it pertains to the pound, i think this give you the push/pull dynamic of why the fed is on the path that they're on, which is you have a situation there where you are fighting a recessionary situation with inflationary pressures on the upside of goods and services and that is what the fed is trying to avoid. a lot of us have come on and talked about what we think the fed should do. ultimately i'm not here to be right, and i don't think my copanelists are either we're hear to make money ultimately we need to start assessing what is, what the data we do have, how markets are reacting rather than part and parsing what we think needs to happen that is a moot point i don't want to be right, or if i do, it comes secondary to making money i want to hammer that point home. >> tim, i want to get back to
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what happened in the uk this morning. what he unveiled in term of stimlative measures on the fiscal side is important it's acting at odds with its own central bank. >> crazy we've yet to see this. you can make an argument fiscal guys are pushing back on monetary policy guys saying, for a decade, you made our job difficult -- you need to do something -- there's a lot of politics involve in the fiscal policy in the uk of a new prime minster. doesn't have much of a mandate makes this that much more extraordinary. we're talking about uk re reaganonics, and reaganomics went down at a time debt to gdp level worse so different that was the last time we su this hike in interest rates. yes. so when you do this to cut your budget and you don't have a way to pay for it -- you kind of said, we'll figure it out down the road you torched the currency then you have the biggest
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sell-off in gilts and uk bonds arguably ever. a made inflationary pressures more desk for the central bank, raised borrowing costs it doesn't make sense. i understand why policy makers in the uk wanted to do this. it's politically the right thing to do, although the politics around this over there, their problem. but it's creating some social issues as well. >> here's a question that comes out of that. i'll go to you, bk if the fiscal forces the combatting what the central bank is trying to do, which is tame the spatial dragon, it seems like whatever recession the uk and potentially europe may spin into will be even worse if what the central bank is trying to do is going to be even that much harder to accomplish >> yeah. well, it will be more painful because you'll have inflation sticking around, right so, we've talked about this. what the central bankers are trying to do is get -- demand
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destruction. that means they don't want to you buy anything buy less gas and cars and less clothes and less acid washed jeans for tim. that is what they're trying to do that is going to create a recession, but at the same time they're giving people money saying, i know prices are high spend again. it's contradictory that's happening in the uk, in europe, and frankly it's happening here in the u.s. and i wouldn't be surprised if it continues to happen, particularly as we into the next presidential cycle so you have people, no demand destruction, inflation sticks around for way longer than anybody thinks, which is why i have been saying rates stay higher, inflation stickier because there hasn't been any demand destruction yet. >> nothing gets between tim and his acid washed jeans. >> nothing stop mess from buying an acid washed jean vest.
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>> sight to behold let's get to energy, worst performing sector. fell back to lows of the yore at one point. where do we go from here chart master carter here to take us through. >> it's overdone just as it was so overdone at $130 a barrel and predictions of $200. i think we've got the equal and opposite circumstance here the key is this -- june 17th a critical day it's the low of the s&p and the s&p returned to that low from june 17th to the present, gold down 10%, copper down 16%, oil down 27% i think it's overdone and want to step in and do some buying. let's look at a couple charts. first is commodity and stock complex. this spread is getting to the point where i think you, again,
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be contrarian and buy oil. a few oil charts, they're all the same chart, and it's just different ways the draw the lines. we're down 40% women know we hit that high of $130 a barrel in march and hit a low today of $78. closed at 79.$.35. let's put some lines in. we're down to support. final chart, it just has an arrow. i've drawn it as an up arrow take advantage of an extreme day over day, week over week sell-off, and again, compared to most other things, so much worse than where it was in the middle of june. >> carter, thank you we'll see you soon on options action jeff mills, do you find option here in energy equities? >> we talk about the diversion between energy equities and the commodity. this week you saw things from the supply-demand perspective that weren't great you had demand numbers in emerging markets more generally not very good. demand numbers from china, clearly awful, just given zero
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covid policies there was this narrative that china was going to be the saying grace, going to re-open, offset, slow down the rest of the world. that's in question overall, i think the supply dynamic if you look between now and through 2023, it lends itself to support and oil from here and probably moving higher. but i think you can focus on stocks like, say, eog. it's a stock i mention a lot because it does have a low cost structure. if you look in the last earnings call, ceo said they can pay their dividend you could see $100 in that stock. that's where support would be. another stock, schennier there are areas of value i think in those names and just generally in the energy space because i think the commodity does go higher from here. coming up, should you run into this name or put it on your bench in keeping up with the consumer next. and it's friday.
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time for the chart of the week we'll bring you the one stock on our traders' radar that they're watching the name ahead stick around much more fast money in two.
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welcome back to "fast money. rough week for consumer stocks names like tesla, tapestry, ralph lauren getting hit hard. nike also hitting fresh lows levels not seen since july 2020. should investors brace for more selling? guidance when it comes to supply chain and china, bonowny. >> this is been on the radar some time. i see the concern around the consumer i don't like the space, but i think it makes for an intriguing relative value play. if you look at the earnings, around 96 bucks. we're talk about 26 times 4 earnings i don't think we've seen that multiple around 2015 with that said, ginn where we are in the right environment, there's an environment to be had these multiples should be lower. but on relative value to xrt, comps and to where it's been, i
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think this is a level where personally i would be deploying some capital to that. >> what i love about nike in this environment, it's a stock i'm long, and it's been painful. it really will be about north america. china's going to be down ten north expected nine. it's a free cash flow story. if you're invested in companies you have to -- nike is that company. there's a lot of scenarios you can do it deserves somewhere close to a 34 multiple, and that's a major discount to where it's traded. at this point we talked about downgrades in the stock earlier in the week. that's great stocks down 40% from the highs. >> the concern was weakness in the wholesale channel. 26, bk do you like this one market multiple is 17, 16. >> bk ain't going to do it not at all
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exactly, you hit right on it, right? market multiple is at 17 i'm in an environment where the fed doesn't want me to buy new sneakers they want me to walk around in old ones, repair the soles i'm not going buy nike. >> but jeff mills, don't certain stocks deserve a premium because of the cash flow, the business, because all these things >> yeah, i think in a lot of environments that's probably true look, i've talked about nike and lulu as places where you want to focus your attention, sort of a barbell higher end versus lower end, the dollar generals of the world. i talked about that level of $100 on wednesday. knifed through that today. just from a technical perspective i think you could have more downside, and i think bk hit the nail on the head. unemployment is going to be higher six months from now than today and i think that's the crux of it right now you want less discretionary spending
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like i said, dollar general, dollar tree, auto zone, mcdonalds, utilities, health care, and i think that's probably going to be the ace for a while. coming up, one name outperforming this week. should you into it into that stock? that was a clue. we'll review the chart of the week and throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our contributors here's one of our cnbc producers. >> i was brn and raise along the border in the texas, rio grande family and i'm blessed to come from a mexican working class family grouping up with six kids meant there were always someone to lean on when times got tough one of my sisters toll me there's beauty in the struggle, and it's not always easy, but our challenges shape us. it's important to remember where you came from, because no matter where you go, who you meet, you represent people and culture wherever you go. nning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain,
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welcome back to "fast money. time for our chart of the week reveal what is it it's apple falling 1.5% today, but basically flat for the week, and in this environment it's pretty darn good. what does that mean for what's ahead for the stock market a positive spin on this, isn't that a good thing that the largest company in the world holding up relative to the rest of the market? >> i'll go with yes, and you know, just because i want to be positive we have been negative the whole show so what the heck. >> you but, bk. >> it means that -- yeah, well, what it means is people haven't
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panicked yet that's what i think. apple is one of these darlings people have owned it forever they love it means they haven't panic yet i'm looking at that and saying there's a divergence between what people and the market are doing. when i see apple crack, that means there's another lower in the stock market i don't know if that's positive. i'm trying to be as positive as i can, but i'm negative. >> another leg lower is not positive. >> that doesn't sound positive to me, but it's a good try i applaud bk for giving it a shot 150 has been this battleground if it breaks that level, which it probably will, then you're headed to june lows. i was just looking at a couple stocks today, and i think the risk is from these largest names. if you look at apple, amazon, tesla, they're 13% of the s&p 500. they're still 10% 15rk% above
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june lows. i can't imagine they levitate all this that will bring things down. we were talking about the dollar apple has 65% of its sales outside the u.s. 18% in china there are currency risks associated with that i have been clear how i feel not such a positive story for me. >> tim, this is a point you repeatedly made. if companies continue to warn, that means a slowdown innenter price spending a leveragely. >> just haven't gotten it. for apple less of a headline for microsoft or amazon where you're getting the best part offure growth multiple. but amazon, also, this is typically the season september historically a bad month. in term of apple and the holiday season, you start to price in holiday season wove gotten decent data points for the iphone 14. that to me i'm taking the other side of the positivity there i think you can't hold up, and
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ultimately this will be the last battle front. >> so far 3 out of 4. >> should be the most defensive stock in the market. there's no reason it should hold out. well above the june lows that scares me. >> we have a little bit of time. three our four traders so far say don't go with apple, bonawyn. >> >> i guess third time a charm. i gave you the case for nike but i talk about where their multiple is relative to where it's been. it is the exact opposite with apple. i know bk tried to be positive, but the fact that it has held up and the rest of the market has not is exactly what gives me downside concern. >> clean sweep, negativity of apple. speak of apple, do not miss carter taking down technical stock. time for the final trade let's go around the horn bk, brian kelly. >> yeah, i'm back to negativity
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on this one. you want to sell fcx copper not so shiny. >> bonawyn. >> take a look at pvi. >> jeff mills? >> surprise, surprise i'm a seller of apple here i think it breaks 150. there's a catchup trade to the downside. >> have a great weekend, diageo might help. >> that does it for us don't go anywhere. options option is up next. e's in the perfect cup of coffee and her museum of personal computers. and you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market
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it is friday, and that means it is time for options action. the dow closing at a new low for 2022 and the s&p struggling to not do the same. all the major averages kept their fifth down we can on rising recession fears we'll help you find recommendation in options. plus, we'll look at one whole market insurance policy and examine why gold isn't behaving as it should yet joining me, carter worth before we get to tonight's trade, let's triage the markets.
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carter, what's you


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