tv Closing Bell CNBC September 28, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
was a financial impact to him. all right. >> how much impact could there be he's already numbero uno. >> a lot of fun. >> first time ever thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. the s&p 500 breaking its six-day losing streak with a broad rally here across the board. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everything. stocks are rallies, energy, communications services and consumer discretionary right now leading the pack, but every sector is higher, all about what's happening in the bond market today stabilizing after the bank of england announced this morning it will look at buying long-dated bonds a big drop in bonds, trickling across the pond. the dow, 29 out of 30 stocks,
the only one down is apple, on the record of production costs we'll talk about that later. rich clarida, with his reaction to the bank of england ade moved to help stabilize the slumping markets over there. bijon and eisai, yielding positive results in a new trial. eisai's chairman will join us live mock santoli has a look at how small caps of. >> it cleared the way to have a half-decent bounce add today's highs, we're still below the highs from earlier in the week, so we're raiding in
this lower band of this trading range we've been in for a while, but somewhat constructive that we got to 4% of the ten-year yield, and sort of allowed what was already building up in the markets to finally release to do up side. we've been pointing out, when you go back a couple years, that's slanted line, but giving up two years of gains sometimes is a bit of a stop and a reassess time of moment. that would be down here. this is halfway between the lows in march of 2020 and the covid crash, and the all-time highs. that's 1300 points so there's a lot of eyes on this area right below where we're trading. on small caps, totally underst
understandable it appears to be a steep discount to these companies, and an absolute basis. i great with you that is why we're -- that they do go down i'm interested in this period right here, when the crash started. that's when you had this extreme relative evaluation. i don't know what would trigger a rebound, but it's a reminder a lot more risk has come out of the slower stocks. perhaps one reason bouncing more than 3%. mike, thank you. we'll see you later. let's bring in liz anne saunders do you like small caps on a relatively basis because they're cheap? >> they are cheap and i think you have to have a quality filter a lot of people don't realize
that are youle 2000 small caps is just sort of put into the bucket by size, whereas the s&p 500 -- 600, there's a way to look at it i think you want to look at quality factor, somewhat reasonable valuations. >> how did the really feel to you? is it a new idea of central bank intervention there were two massive central banks interventions while i was away japan and now the uk in the bond market there may be some thinking that given the fed has emphasized they will not accept -- powell has been pressing that idea back to 2018, and making a
point to say that there's a difference between financial market volatility and financial system instability however, he has suggested that were financial system instability to really pick up, but that would be a different story in terms of the fed stepping back, considering a pause. there could be some of that at play from a macro perspective. you're right, we technically got very oversol s&p had 90% of the stocks trading above 50-day averages in mid august that dropped to 3% at yesterday's lows so there's some indication that under the surface breadth is improving even as we retested, which is often the sign you said to look for to get a sense of whether we want to find stability. that's one potentially positive
sign from a technical and breadth perspective. we are at session highs, now up about 537 points on the dow nasdaq at session highs as well. up almost 2% remember, it's still about 32% off the highs. this idea of central bankers stepping in over financial stability, is the point here that what we have learned over the last 24 hours is that financial market instability trumps inflation when it comes to the central bankers' -- >> financial system instability. again, to say differentiated from financial market volatility in the case of a letter, the fed has said that's not our mandate to keep financial market volatility low, but if you start to see an infection of the financial system, and there's no overt signs of that yet in the u.s., but given what the bank of england decided to do, there may
be some inference that that could be an be 'tis tuesday for the fed to maybe at least slightly lift its foot off the brake. i think they would have to see it more acutely in our own financial plummeting system, but that could be a background story, or simply could be an oversold bounce. >> so we're 23% off the highs on the s&p 500. what are the earnings expectations and do they -- do you think at this point they line up with reality of what we're facing in the imply? >> i don't think they line up with reality yet in terms of dollar earnings estimated for calendar year 2022, that's now down to 223 last year it was 208 maybe we don't sink below that for this calendar year, but i think we have a way to say go on the down side, to a point where probably sometimes in the next two or three quarters, we get to a point where that year over
year change -- i don't think it's manifested itself fully in that rerating of earnings. i think once the third quarter season starts to get reported that will give analysts more color. >> liz ann sonders, good to talk with you we have a 2% rally again ever sector higher look at these high flyers today. up next, eisai's chairman and ceo on the drug and when it could win approval the dow is soaring now above 500 point. we'll be right back.
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>> the therapeutic goal is to give them as much time as possible staying in this stage of disease it does not restore or cure the disease, but gives the individuals more time at this stage, which is critical, because these individuals are functional thank you. >> so it would be guest for early-stage individuals? >> yes, they it take care of themselves at home, interact with friends and families. we want to keep them there as long as possible. >> how big of an effect was it in terms of the measured reduction in cog any at this time decline, 1 through 10 >> we believe these results are very clinical and meaningful
remember, we set out to show at least 25% slowing in this large-scale trial, which is higher than the 20% that some experts and companies tend to use. even at this high mark, 25%, we crossed that bar at 27%, as you said earlier we are very excited about this result. >> how is it different than the drug that biogen was testing before, and how is it different than the ones being tested by roche and lily >> actually the primary mode is not to target the plaque in the brain, but the toxic amylo proteins, which is a couple
steps before the plaque. we believe this is the reasonr why you see the definitively positive results in this large-scale trial. >> what can you tell us, ivan, about the cost of the drug >> this is very important question, and alzheimer's research for four decades, 25 years ago, we introduced our first treatment for alzheimer's within this -- within it stays for a long time. we understand the sensitivity for the families and patients, and the alzheimer's community, socially responsible pricing is critical for eisai thank you. >> do you think medicare will pay for it >> as you know, the cms has come out with the national coverage determination policy
we believe these results answers all the key questions in the cms policy we cannot wait to share this port data with the counter ms and continue a productive dialogue over the past few months >> really quickly, can you take me through the timeline, if you have it, on when you will seek approval >> sara, as you already know, it's already under an approval review, based on the mid stage trial with an action date in january 2023 it's coming up in a couple months the process is, once we have the accelerated approval from the fda, the eisai team will immediately file for full approval based on the clarity large-scale data, so we expect full approval to come in the
middle of next year. >> ivan, thank you a lot of information there i appreciate you taking the questions and coming on. vip hopeful. >> thank you. guggenheim seg mega blockbuster potential for this drug they like biogen. the s&p rallying more than 2%, nasdaq up more than that, dow up 571 points. small caps, as mike highlight earlier, up 3.3% up next, rockcreek's ceo and later richard clarida wel rhtac 'lbeig bk.
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hold, and it's a country that is going to emerge from covid it's a country that is going to put its 22% youth employment back to work it's an economy that is going to continue to investment in evs, semis, et cetera, and it is a country that has declared that china 2025 -- made in china 2025 is a real thing. >> that was mary erdoes, and why she's pullish on china here now to join with her take is the founder and ceo of rockcreek. thank you for joining us good to see you. i think that you have a differing view >> it's good to see you, too >> i think the world bank just
downgraded the growth rate down to 2.8% from 5%. the way i look at china, we had an incredible growth rate the last 10 to 20 years. that just cannot go on forever even with the things that we've been seeing in china, politically, geopolitical, economically, and in the tech sector, you would seen growth rates come down, number one. number two, they may not state up at 8%, but somewhere between 2% and 4%, versus 4 to 6, 7% the demographics of china is people are having fewer kids, so the population is dwindling. obviously they'll use robots, all the other tools, but the number of people in china is coming down, which affects both their labor force and the wages. exports has been very healthy this year, but given all the
geopolitics we are all very much aware of and other countries becoming more nationalistic in terms of made in the u.s. or made in europe, likely that will impact china's exports you are absolutely right in terms of what mare,just said about local markets. their local market will continue to grow, but i think it would be impacted >> where in the world do you go? do you chase returns that could potentially be better overseas at this point, or stay in the u.s. >> so the countries that are benefiting from what's going on in china are the asean countries. in fact a lot of companies are moving to vietnam and building new plants in vietnam. you also have around vietnam, countries like malaysia, indonesia, which are very resource rich, with a
sophisticated labor force. of course, we should talk about india. india is one kin where you're having the exact opposite of what's happening in china. what you're having is modi, their leader and business community are very aligned in going big on the green economy, and really investing a lot on both sides in the renewable area why does that matter a lot of thing that may not come from the u.s., china let's say, might start coming in from india in a few years last but not least, i would venture to say just like the big outsourcing that we saw with 1/2 and others into the rest of the world, you might see that with the green economy. >> so you're there at delivering alpha to speak on a panel that's called the next big thing. i have a feeling for you that might be in climate tech or
climate investing. is that what you're focused on >> absolutely. i think with he see the prices of other energies have come down a lot. you have the wind on your back when it comes to climate-smart investments. plus the new generation is buying the goods, whether it's retrofitting your house, where you're going to work, or what kind of car you drive. >> afsaneh, i look forward to your panel coming up. >> thank you very much good to be with you. stanley druggen miller making waves saying he sees a hard landing for the economy nxt year. upext is richard clarida we'll be right back.
okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq the big news moving markets came from the bank of england today. the central bank star starting to buy long-dated bonds, quote, based on a scale that is necessary. joining us is richard clarida. you got out just time for this craziness. will this work, what the british central bank is trying to do >> i think it will work. they're putting their full faith and force behind it. the real question is what happens in a month when this program is over, and they're hiking rates right now, so it's a bit of an awkward situation to
be tightening policy and interveninging we'll have to see. the real quit is what's going to happen with the government policy getting a rebuke from the imf? >> wow, it's been a while. >> that's like an emerging market. >> the new government came in with its own idea at tax policies at a time when they're trying to reduce inflation they're trying to work it out in real time. i think that's what we're seeing >> can you invest in that country right now, given the opposing >> certainly if you do, there's a lot of volatility you'll have to stomach i have a feeling a lot of investors will be on the sideline. >> listen to what was sad. >> last week people said don't invest in a single thing in the
uk that's when people like us and in the room would be, okay, let's go take a look. >> uk banks, in this kind of environment, what is ahead for that economy >> well, obviously inflation way too high there's a new government in place, so there's a lot of uncertainly. global economy, inflation is high in most countries and there will be a slowdown result of that, as well as ukraine so you can't paint a rosy picture right now. >> so now there's a question of the fed. it looks like markets are stable in this country. do you think they would intervene or pivot if we start to get sort of out of whack with our bond market? >> i think the hurdle to do that is very high, appropriately high, but certainly during my time we saw periods of dislocation in the treasury and the repo markets the bottom line i think the
hurdle to do that is very high i don't think they're expecting to do it one thing in nigh 36 years i learned, never say never. >> we're getting a lot of fed-speak, and you can help interpret it bostic said today, we have to get to a moderately restrictive stance, and for me that is in the 4.25 and 4.5 range my preference is we get there by year end interpret that, if you would. >> we have an unusual situation where virtually every fed speaker is singing from the same hymnal, same playbook. i think chair made it clear that he thinking rates are going to the level that bostic referred to i do think there's a sense on the committee that, to get the hard medicine out of the way this year, i really do thing
that they're trying to frontload as much as they can. hopefully next year, the data starts to approve and they can paw. that's certainly what they're thinking that's what the s&p indicated. >> so 75 november? >> that's what i would guess, 50 in december, and one more hike in either january or march of next year. that's what i call the plausible best-case scenario, and then they pause why? >> because they will have done a lot, and many folks have said at some point it will make sentence to pause i think the baseline next year is we do get a pause, but they'll push back against a cause. when jay powell says pause, the markets will hear cut, and they'll definitely try to push back against it. >> i think it depends on how bad
the economy turns or where unemployment gets. >> i think i do give cried that some from a very low level, 3.5% recently i do think in the end, to get inflation down into the 2s will probably require a larger increase in unemployment, say perhaps up to 5% so i think they're moving in a more realize tick direction, but we can't kid ourselves inflation is too high, the fed started in march of this year at a high, and there would be some sometime before we see evidence that inflation is coming down towards 2% is that true, though i think the worry now is that inflation is start to go come down you can look in commodities and listen to conference calls, and the fed is not pulling back on the super-sized interest rate increases. the concern is they'll do more
damage >> that's an excellent question, sara that is a risk i think the risk unfortunately was so large last year, so persistent that jay powell and his colleagues are worried about price stability. if there is a bias, if there is a skew, it's probably towards over-tightening, but i think that's something they're willing to live with. >> are they watching the dollar here they've got to be. >> i think they are, but probably not comments publicly >> you can tell us. >> i think they understand the strong dollar. we have a lot of fed rate hikes, and u.s. rates are now higher than most other major countries in the world that would support the dollar. a stronger dollar does help to reduce inflation at the margin, but it has some adverse consequences, especially for emerging economies i think the way the fed thinking
about the dollar is the chair, janet yellen and ben bernanke, but they want to understand how it affects the global outlook. but ultimately they'll be judged on u.s. inflation and -- we'll get to a point where japan intervened to boost its yen. the uk is now beintervening. how close are we to a global coordination >> may not as close as some of the markets guess. that would be an effort led by treasury secretary yellen, as you know the treasury that leads the currency negotiation efforts right now, i think, again, the hurdle -- again, never say never, but i don't think it's
imminent, though druggen midrukenmiller earlier, listen to what he said. >> i don't know, you've been wrong on a lot of things, but since you do it for a living, that's our forecast, recession in '23. >> what is the likelihood? >> i think we'll likely have a recession, it may be a mild rece recession, but i think we'll have a recession i don't thinkist necessarily a hard landing, as stan appeared to imply the last two recessions were the two worst since the crash. we can have a recession when the growth slows, the unemployment rate rises, obviously it's no good if you're losing your job, but it's not cataclysmic i think we can avoid a severe recession.
>> so my final question is, you're going back to pimco, you always have an eye on the markets. >> yeah. >> the question is, are we starting to see the peak in treasury yields, with a two-year yield having soared, and the ten-year above 4%. you think there's more to go there? >> i think we're close, because i think this fed does have credible, break-even inflation is a vote of confidence in the fed, even surveying, so i think we'll be near the peak in the bond yields when we get near the peak in the fed funds rate, which would be january >> richard clarida, great to have you. >> good as always. thank you. here's where we stand right now in the market. the dow has taken another leg up we're coming offer of six down days in the market, so quite a nice snap back, following lower
yields by the bank of england's intervention the nasdaq is up 2.3%. could netflix's upcoming be a stream come true it's higher by more than 8% -- look, more than 9. at least one wall street firm thinking so. a reminder, you can colon to "closing bell" by following the podcast. we will be right back with the dow much 605
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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus steve kovach on apple and julia boorstin on netflix. what a nice rally, and the small caps we highlighted earlier soaring more than 3.75%. they say the best rallies always happen in the middle of a bear market. >> that's true we can't declare that this is anything but one of those again, but it shows you how tightly wound the markets were coming into the week in mid june, you had intense moves higher, all kind of lining up that something had to give. today is a buying frenzy in
bonds, obviously touched off with the bank of england yields coming crashing down, essentially kind of puts everything in reverse, frees up the sim and allows the oversold market to have a lift. going toward where we fell out of bed late last week. >> but for how long is the request he rich just said, to still put a band-aid, but what happens when this program expires in about a month. you're still dealing with a fiscal policy that woke up the bond vigilantes in the uk and makes it hard for the central bank to fight inflation. >> we absolutely don't know if this is anything but a temporary fix. even that would seem to buy time for both the markets and potentially for uk policy makers to make some adjusting, also for
everyone to decide, you know, if it's not a one-way market where yields do nothing but go higher, if you wanted to lock in these levels, then you might actually have more slow-moving capital into bonds it's not the whole fix, it's not meaning that earnings already great, but we are emerging out of the worth season at period. >> right, how about ten-year, spending time before 1 -- quite a move that report sending -- semis are underpurchasing as well steve kovach joins us. investors obviously don't like
how much shop should we put into it >> they're -- it comes down to the ten how apple reports the iphone sales can used to be by unit that's what this report is focusing on. but the endless pushing back and saying, hey, under sales may be flat, but selling more of those pro lines that will help above and show some growth year over year that's where the tension is happening. they were saying sales in the first three days were down 3%,
but again analysts pushing back. it's a bit of a great area here, but what's happening on a you want basis, they're saying iphone sales will be pretty flat year over year because of the strength of the iphone pro and prioritizing the manufacturing of the iphone 14 pro could help revenue to growth. >> it always feels like a guessing game. >> what does it look like? is it truly like we're hearing about on the pro end selling better i think citi estimated 76% of the new iphones are the pro line that might not be good news for
apple, but it is good for the metrics investors that they care about, which is revenue growth steve kovach, thank you. meanwhile, boeing is helping the dow soar today announcing a deal to sell 16 dreamliner jets to taiwan. it includes an option for an additional eight planes as well. 2:00 be worse more than $4 billion, and morgan stanley citing valuation it's been significantly underperformeding. phil, big deal for boeing? is the market starting to pick up how do you read there? >> that's definitely the way to read it, sara. the market for widebody planes has been subdued
international travel remains the one part of the airline business that is most depressed relative to 2019 levels china, you can't get in there from a lot of places around the world. europe is a bit better transatlantic travel is improving. transpacific is dicey at best. once you see the markets improve, eel seeing them make orders they want to start replenishing their supply of widebody aircraft it's down 33%, one of the bottom performers, along with cisco. so how does the stock look here? >> on a three-year base, it's that much worse. look, it's at the bottom end of this range, nothing would keep it from going back above 15, i
think there's a theme emerging, because the defend stocks have done so well, it does in and out account for a pretty good share of the overall company valuations there's a bit of a curb there. with all the debt the company was forced to take on, it doesn't necessarily look cheap, but it's news driven. >> then the stock with probably work a bit better. >> boeing adding about 41 points to the dow's rally today phil lebeau, thank you netflix is also a winner today price targets of $283. that applies an up side. saying the benefits of netflix are not currently reflectinged the stork.
julia boorstin joins us. wall street seems to be coming around to the ad strategy. what are the persant risks here? >> well, look. it was pointed out there's significant fx risk. the overall sent mountains is it's very, very beneficial they believe in people trade down from the ad-free version to the lower cost ad-supported version people just simply spent so much time streaming on net flex, and they estimate that revenue per uses could be much more than what hulu gets and they're expecting that we could see this ad-supported
version as soon as early november isn't is now that they woke up to that these lost their library as the other companies have tried to take streaming contend especially when people are on a budget that's how the conversations i've had >> it's so lard to the bill franchises that people are going to tune in for, or as these stream for i think what is so interesting is many would say that netflix is late they have to spent less on content there's so many streaming services out there it's all right so big, that maybe they'll be turning out
the other thing i heard a lot about, sara, is this idea that the binge model that was so effective for it, when it was really the only one in the game, doesn't work anymore i'm hearing we're likely to see them shift to more of a drip-feed model, where you have to come back week after week >> julia, thank you. well, mike, netflix is up 9.5%, the second-best performing in the triple qs, and eli lilly, also, arc innovation -- >> so a combination of the tough
that's been beaten down the most some of the largest blue-chippy stocks like an amazon perhaps it's much more about apple is considered to be the safe haven, those things kind of back off and crack a bit. that to me is the main dynamic going on right now about two minutes to go in the trading day. still holding on to a 600-point rally. what do you see? >> very strong 9 to 1, almost 10 to 1 slants advancing to declining volume. that's obviously very strong, something like 90% that's what you look for take a look at year to date the ten-year treasury yield. you'll see three pretty well-defined spikes, up to a
high and then down the first one was in may, second in june, it rants about 3.5. this latest one, ran about 4%, all dramatic spikes down it did usher in a more stable equity market, once it got the bids that they were going to stick. we'll see if that repeats. the good news is went up to the mid 30s, where it has peaked out over the last year or so, but that another thing that flashed, that the market was going pretty well stressed, and now we're rear lacksing a bet, the best day for the dow, best day for the s&p since august every dow stoic is higher at the moment except for apple. home depot is contributing the most s&p 500 is also in rally motor with every sector strong
the worst performing sector is information technology best performing is energy, which is up 4.5% the nasdaq is up 2%, and actually higher for the week right now, the biggest winners of all, a 3.2%, dollar is weaker and treasuries are getting bought for a change. that's it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow it's "overtime" with scott wapner >> thank you, sara welcome to "overtime." the bells were just getting started from right here at cnbc's deliver alpha conference. in just a bit i'll be joined but the founder of a $17 billion hedge fund, and how she's navigating necessary turbulent times. and dan ives, he's also here, on worries about apple ace iphone production we'll talk to him abou
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