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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 14, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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board move off yesterday. >> 3502 is where we got down to, right. >> >> actually below it. i think it traded to 3490ish not that you want to be too precise. >> good stuff. enjoy the weekend. we'll see you next weekend i'll see all of you as well. that does it for us. "fast money" begins now. >> right now on "fast" a bruising average to a wild week. was yesterday just a one-hit wonder investors should forget ever happened plus, earnings for a next week of big names reporting from goldmans to tesla and snap and beyond which are the names traders are watching and later double dose of chart of the weak. one is riding a seven-day losing streak and another lost a quarter of its value since monday china a big reason i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, tim
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sey seymour. we start off with a rough end to a turbulent week indices unable to sustain momentum after yesterday's rally. s&p and nasdaq going negative for the week the dow managing to hold on to a gain since monday. ten-yield treasury, yields closing above 4% for the first time since 2008. trading higher after the quarter results. morgan stanley falling 5% today. then there's regional bank first republic, plunging 16 mrs. for its worst day ever the company says net interest margins will come in at the low end. how did today's moves get us set up for the heart of earnings season yesterday's vol youm was pretty heavy. today pretty light heavy on the upside, down on the downside. >> today was the dao when the
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most important people in the market were speaking and we were listening. jamie diamond, with irony that banks outperformed too, and we're going to hear from more of them, but he who likes to evoke weather termology and meteorologist went to, hey, when crisis like things we've seen in the uk, other things follow and pointed out there are blowups coming maybe that is a weather term federal reserve was out there en masse. i would point to the comments from esther -- you drop that into just technical dynamics of where the market is, and yet, yesterday was a ferocious day, and the fact that we didn't go through those lows today but did close on the lows. and most importantly, as long as yields in the dollar go higher we haven't found anything of a bottom even though that cpi
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number this week was some sense we're getting to that place on inflation. >> in the conference calls, julie, seemed like many bank his good results, finished the day higher on a down city. citi said they're watching collateral closely and watching the fallout from uk pension. there's unknowns, a tip, a nod to what might come still. >> right, and i think it's because we're at this interesting point in the market where, you know, we've declined substantially into bear market territory for certain indices, and everyone is taking that as indication, we should be towards the bottom the thing is we were so superovervalued towards the top that it's possible we have a long way to go and what we know is valuations are not where they need to be, and the biggest question we all have is, okay, so how bad are earnings going to be i think that is the real question mark. it's like, i was friends with my girlfriends before we started
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dating, but -- so she knew i was crazy, but she didn't know how crazy i was. you don't know how bad those earnings are going to be, and you just have to wait and see and find out, okay, how weak the consumer going to be what's going on in transportation that sort of thing >> i feel like everybody's been in that position before. jeff mills, egi go to you. as i mentioned, bank earns are good, and then there's first republic i understand you own first republic does that shake your confidence in financials or was this a company specific story >> first of all, i started dating many i wife in high school, so i've never, ever been in that situation. but outside of that, ov overallt banks we -- heading into a recession i don't think you want to be overweight banks, for example, and i think the inflation news earlier in the week, it increased the probability of a recession and we heard from j.p. morgan.
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they said if unemployment goes up to 5% or 6%, and i think that's conservative in a recession. i don't think we have had a recession where the unemployment rate was below 6%, that they would have to substantially increase loan/loss preserve. i don't think it's going to be a strong place for relative out performance in 2023. banks usually aren't in slowing economic growth situations, and relative to first republic work do own it. it was a really tough day. net interest margin compression. they're having interest values there. looking forward, chs what we see with the stock $100 is good support pay attention to that. credit quality is pristine with a bank like this pay close attention to that, heading into difficult economic environments a bank with a balance sheet that look like first republic is somewhat interesting here, and the last thing i'll say about them, which was part of our interest when we bought it, their net promoter score, it is through the roof
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dpi compared to a lot of companies, especially banks i think there's a good long-term story here, but boy, a rough day today. >> grasso, what did you make of the week >> this is why people have trouble getting back in and trying to predict the bottom because it rips your face off on both sides we don't now how much of this was a technical bounce, and i believe it was more than people say, the worst is over i believe the dollar has more strength to the upside i believe commodities, believe it or not, have peaked we've seen every commodity basically peak already and is a third or half of its value the problem s food has not peaked the problem is gasoline is going to be more expensive next month than this was the month. so we are in a recession, and it depends on how deep the recession will get i do believe that jamie diamond is probably the most important
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voice outside of jerome powell and listen to what he said -- tim alluded to it, or tim said it before. hurricane. now it's how deep is the recession? is it 20% or 30% he added the other 10 yesterday. i think this is a man who has a unique insight to all things economic and all things financial. we should probably listen. on the side of the banks, though, he did say they're probably going to be okay if the unemployment rate goes to 5% or 6% it will cost them $5 billion or $6 billion. this is where i'll leave off we were once talking about release of loan loss reserves. now we're talking about provisions that's head winds for banks. that's head winds for the economy. there's a recession. it just depends how deep you think it's going to be. >> although jpm was rewarded for
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that in today's session. tim add this to the volatility drivers in the market, what's d going on in the uk, that doesn't do much. doesn't clear the decks, solve the problems, doesn't get pensions out of their holes. how do you factor that in? there's this weird period where maybe in the u.s. we're looking to november 4th. through the 4th we'll have gotten a meeting a number. but october 31st is when the new uk finance minister is going to present the medium term plan for the uk so i feel like there's a lot of different things here along the way in the next three weeks. >> comes after fright night, and it is halloween. we don't know who's going to show up and what kind of costume they're going to put on their fiscal package that's the problem we know there's a tug of war between fiscal and monetary. i think this gets into policy failure, and that's really what this comes down to the data that was important this
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week, not just cpi, retail sales. if you think about the numbers within the numbers we saw a lot of things according to discretionary that say the consumer is throwing in the to youle. on used cars, auto parts, tvs, on a lot of discretionary spending and yes, they are spending more on food and services and i just think that's your allocation i know it's not complicated that you have a dynamic where things related to staples and consumer spending that are not going to be attached to that next purchase i don't know if we have this chart up there, but apple relative to the s&p, apple's the ultimate discretionary purchase. apple, which is 10 ps of the low it hit in june lows -- this was the week the market decidedly pushed through the june lows apple is the name we're waiting on. >> to drop. >> and i think it will be good news for semis i talked about taiwan semi that will be the clearing event on some level for a lot of
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people. >> let's turn to the chart master carter worth. he's taking a look at the s&p. i believe carter, i'm going to guess that you're negative, see more selling ahead. >> at the end of the day, before we look at the charts. there's still so much interest in the market, in buying stocks. that reversal yesterday, someone did that it's usually not over till no one wants to try anymore, wants to play. i quit, i want to go home. we still have a great interest out there and say, hey, let me catch a low. it's a problem let's look at some charts. so, fairly clear licenes. you can see them we have our covid high we have our covid low now, we have been in perfect s sync with thissup trend and downtrend. let's do the zoom. you can see we are just now breaching that line. the risk is where? let's go to the next chart the risk is we get to the precovid high. that's a minimum, and that would
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be about 5%, 5.5% from here. 3390 we close alt 3383 today. ultimately, where can we go? final chart. long-term. this is -- spent some time on this this is your 2009 financial crisis low, to the penny this is your covid low to the penny. we, you can see here, blew out through the top. in some reports the value communication was as high as it was in the dot com to be debated. here's theproblem, we're now i the lower band for the first time in a long time. what if -- i think this has to be considered -- we're going all the way to the bottom. if you go to the bottom tomorrow, it's obviously different than if you go there -- you go there tomorrow, it's 2859. we're not going there tomorrow tomorrow's closed. if we drift over time you're going to talk about 32, 31.90.
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and ultimately what is the premise for big up i don't see it. >> carter, thank you seal you in a few minutes in "options action. 3,200 thereabouts, grasso. we talked about that level at this desk. >> yep it's 3,200 i have 3,300 on my cart right now. when carter talks about the february 2020 level, you can go -- if you go a little bit earlier in that month -- i think tim pointed this out, too. we have a pretty big run-up that year from december to january, where it started around 3,000. so i have 3,250, 3,320, somewhere rnd tharound there i averaged it, made it around 3,300. i think that is without question where we go. and really quickly, the pandemic bottom to the pandemic top, 50%
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retracement is right around 3,500. that's where we stopped yesterday. that's why you had technical buying ripping the market higher, in my opinion. but i do believe that everyone thinks that the market is headed towards 3,300, and even lower. >> coming up, we're getting to the heart of earnings season with names like netflix, tesla, all on the calendar next week somewhat names are our traders watching the most? stick around and find out. plus, in a double dose of chart of the week, one name riding its lowest losing streak since last september much more "fast money" after this
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welcome back to "fast money. earnings season ramping up next week we'll hear from ibm, netflix, tesla, and many more what are our traders watching? julie? >> i'm interested in what's going on in the transports i think supply chain is the only place where i could see softening and i think transports are going to tell us a lot of things they're going tell us how they get through the labor disputes at ports and rails and also going to tell us where they're moving things and what inventory is waiting to get soldle they'll give us a good indication of
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what holiday is going the look like so j.b. hunt, et cetera. >> i agree they're being extra resilient. and we see the transport prices hold you will, the csx is going into these numbers and it's intermodel, trucking, you see the rails giving some ground i think we're early in this move i think julie is dead on this is a real tell. >> jeff, what are you watching >> i like stuff with a little macro, a little micro. i think snap is a good one good overall into the economy. are discretionary companies getting -- at all. obviously a great look at the digital ad market. i think snap specifically just because digital advertising can be turned on and off so quickly. that's why i want to hear from them it's a great indicator of overall ad spending and that bleeds into so many company wes care about, whether that's
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netflix and their new plans, google, met. >> can you really extrapolate? we always do, into goog and meta, but i'm wondering if snap is too small there's only a limit to that extrapolation. jeff >> oh, sorry i thought you were talking to tim. no, there is a limit to it, and i think you can even see companies pull out of a snap, say, and look at some of the old faithfuls like google, like meta so, the be a benefit just because it's a first look because digital ads can be turned off so quickly, i think there is some tell. >> this goes to the name steve is watching, or one of them at least, netflix. >> yes, for me it's pretty interesting. it's not going to give me a real insight into the overall market, although netflix took it so hard that i think if you start to see
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netflix become constructive that might be a good sign for the overall market they lost subscribers for the last couple of quarters. they're expected to add some subscribers now. we want to hear about their ad platform will it be tolerated within the market they never wanted to compete with a meta, google, or amazon for ad dollars, so if they feel like they can compete now, i feel like that's bullish for the overall marketing but i'm really just looking at this report specifically for netflix, because i'm interested and they continue to bounce on the base they're building >> we got new details, and i'm wondering, tim, if you think snap is going to be debuting at a decent time? >> it's not a great time, but i think we priced a lot of this in is snap been a disproportionate effect on the market think of the moves jeff was right to challenge
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that i think it's all gravy, though maybe 4 million subs next year. >> julie, what do you think of this digital ad read through >> yeah, i think it's important, but when we are in a more difficult economy, it's true, i agree with jeff, that people go back to the old stalwarts where they really know they can get a return on their investment, so despite all the things i know, i think facebook is well positioned and of course google. >> coming up, not one, but two charts of the week we have one stock that put in its worst week since april 2020278 key level it just broke and where it's heading here. and throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our contributors here's one an our cnbc reporters. >> i'm a second-generation mexican american i was born in el paso, texas,
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charts of the week dropping 12.5% since monday it's been down seven straight days, unable to catch a bid even during yesterday's mons ster turnaround lorjs losing streak since september a last year. tim, why i thought things should be impressiving in china. >> even if this is the one central bank providing liquidity, the story around their companies are unknown. we talk about attacks from the state, some of the cybersecurity dynamics that they're able to push these companies around. it's been devastating. i'm along baba and ten cent. to be an investor, even though baba is around 11 times as cheap as a mega cap will go, it's underperforming a typically weak market. >> julie, is china internet a no-touch >> it is for me right now. i don't think i have the
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cajones. literally i don't, but figuratively, i don't. >> i think all of us our jaws dropped correctively when you used that -- >> i'm not touching that i'm not touching that at all. >> i don't think that's been done on our show very expressive. let's get to our second chart. wynn down 20% since monday grasso's still laughing. a recent report said that tourism during the country's week long national holiday fell from covid lockdowns jeff, you pointed this out to us today. >> i did, yeah don't call on grasso he's still laughing. not going to be able to get through it you had this big rally, 30%, but it's still a bad chart looks broken broke the $68, $69 level just failed at the downward sloping 200 day. this chart cause not look good i said this before about wynn.
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it's trading like a speculative bet on china re-opening. i don't think this is one you can touch right now either. >> grasso, do you have the gumption to invest >> the stones. >> it's exactly what jeff just said s the at the proxy same reason k web can't get out of its way is the same reason wynn is uninvestable you have zero covid policy, also all the other issues dealing with china you don't know what you own, what china owns, what are government companies or not. so it's untouchable right now. i think you have to wait until the smoke clears time for the final trade let's go around the horn steve back over to you for this one. >> netflix as for all the reasons i said before. netflix, buy. >> julie biel? >> i like clearwater analytics mission critical software. it's not getting switched out, and it's moving into europe,
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which i actually think will be positive for them, so it's a little contrary. >> jeff mills? >> tesla is breaking may lows. i think this one goes a lot lower. sell it. >> tim >> altria. pay out. >> that does it for us on "fast money. do not go anywhere "options action" is up after this quick break
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it's friday, and it's time for "options action. i'm melissa lee. the dow and s&p end a choppy trading week almost back where they began while the nasdaq continued to dive lower. tonight we'll dive into the action see if there's a chance to profit, including staples plus, a tectonic week for the tech titans. tes tesla, a bit of a revival. theother, low battery. the options play ahead here with us tonight, carter worth, mike khouw and bria


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