tv Fast Money CNBC October 21, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
and that's really, really tough. because any hint, as we learned today, boom. >> very sensitive to that. again, i think they're reer toing the kind of flexibility and responsiveness to the data the market wants to see. again, we have the see what that means. we don't know if they've already gone past the point where they needed to. >> good stuff. thank you. great weekend to you and all of you. i'll see you next week "fast money" is now. >> right now on "fast" we're counting down big tech earnings. amazon, alphabet, meta, microsoft, all on the calendar next week. plus, healthy gain vaccine makers getting a big shot in the arm. get it they're not the only one to skyrocket higher the chart master with a look into the trades. later on, gushing profits. one oil company notching its best report in seven years can the gains continue we'll find out i'm frank holland in for melissa
lee. on the desk tonight, an all-star cast with that, we start with a strong rally to wrap up the week the major indexes or indices, all closing 2%, with the dow finishing just shy of its 50-day moving average for the first time since september 12th. it's now up three weeks in a row, longest winning streak since last no. the s&p and nasdaq posting solid gains today. meanwhile work saw am big interday swings in some other markets. take a look. the yield on the two-year treasury swinging 20 basis points from high to low, and the greenback, the dollar, finishing the day nearly 2% off its intraday high. all this as we count down to a big week for tech earnings microsoft, alphabet kicking things off tuesday how does this set us up for what's in store? a lot of people call this guy the dean. >> welcome, frank. it's interesting, i think people will make the assumption that
all four are going to miss terribly or all four or five are going to have tremendous earnings in the markets. the reality is you'll probably get a mixed bag. that's what we've seen the last couple quarters. i know tim talked about that last week. i brought it up as well. this period reminds me of the middle of june of this year when the market proceeded to rally 17.5% to 18% in august i think we're in the midst of that now we talk about it you're getting a bit of a relief in the dollar to the downside. yields are taming up and i think there's probably another 7.5% on top of the 7.5% we've seen in four or five trading sessions does not mean all's clear by any stretch of the imagination i'll say this again -- i still think lower for the year, but tactically we're in the midst of what we saw in the middle of june. >> julie beal i see you nodding. do you agree >> i agree these tech names are not a monolith they run very different businesses that have very different drivers.
they have set the regulators pretty regularly that comes into their business as well. so i think we have to look at them each on a case by case basis. generally speaking, some of these businesses are some of the more durable ones. i'm thinking of alphabet in that case and valuation is starting to be in a place that's a little more compelling where i think you have less risk so i think there's definitely some interesting names but i completely agree with guy. this feels very much like a bear market rally we're very enthusiastic. we all want to fed to stop raising rates, but at the end of the day, the stock market is not mandate, it's inpolice station and employment. >> we could have a mixed bag one of the big factors, steve, is the dollar. it's been strong impacts different companies in a different way. just a few months ago, microsoft flagged the dollar with a head wind to eps. >> feels like the dollar is extended we all know it has been extended so that would be inverse
correlation between oil and the dollar is the only thing for me that would stabilize oil or energy prices right now. then if you look at -- i do believe you're going to see 5% to 7% moves post close, post earnings on these names, which has been huge moves. we're not ready for that we have had it, but we're not ready for that, so to guy's point, maybe one stock's up 7% the next time it could be down 7%, and it gives you net-net nothing to think about going into year end. i think we've all masked ourselves again, thinking that rates are going to turn around >> wait, pivot >> yeah, that's -- what's the reason for the rally today is that that maybe people think there's going to be a pace pivot or a pivot to guy's point, maybe we can rally into powell speaking, and that's going to be the shot of reality for us, to say, oh, wait a minute, he really is still hawkish. >> right. >> so i do believe we're going
to get a rally going into year-end i thought it was going to stem for midterm elections but maybe we get back up again the week of powell, and then we have a rip. >> monster week until yields today and the reversal today i think this is what's being threaded into every comment so far -- it's all about rates and the dollar we're not going to rally in equities are any meaningful and sustainable push without getting clarity on rates the 433 interday high on the ten-year, 4.63 before pulling back a lot of this helped by what happened in japan. you saw the dollar go to 114 because you get to this place where you have a mismatch. boj has to come in we talk about this all the time, the volatility in currency and rates is scary, but it's what
moved the markets today. what's going to rally in a world where rates are coming down? i think the mega cap tech stocks are in a place to do that. next week's earnings are critical, but they're not what's driving this market. and to me, this was a week where, if anything, fed speak had people give -- led to more of a debate about, okay, 75 in november for sure, but maybe only 50 in december. and what i'm hearing out of a handful of fed members is they really do want to wait. >> got earnings next week. that's for the quarter we have race declining, how is that going to change the amazon story? the meta story their business comes from consumer spend bug people are still buying toilet paper and speakers they were always going to buy. >> i'm talk about how people participate in the stock market. rates are peaking what stocks do you want to allocate to, go to mega cap stocks that are going
to be defensive. none of those big five told us their business is under pressure a view on rates, even just peaking is going to be if you were -- investors are going to allocate money towards where they have the most confidence, but the places where i think you get a little bit of growth at a reasonable price, and technology, at least those, not megaa cap tech, although those are the ones that will rally the most if you feel we peaked in yields and you want his beta, go to the internet stocks. netflix week was fundamental but the whole space rallied. >> that jump in subscriber numbers with inflation, with competition, not sure what to mick of that guy, i want to come to you when we're talking big tech, does inflation create a narrative for companies for this quarter? >> look, i would submit the one that's really most faffected by it, probably zaamazon in term o
margins and apple. not because i'm a hater, but they're not impervious to what's going on and still selling $1,100 items in an environment where people are starting to focus on what they're spending on they're not going to be impervious creates a disturbance for them other names, i don't necessarily think it's a big deal for a google, and i don't think it's necessarily a big deal for a microsoft. there are other head winds those companies are facing so, to tim's point, infliation s about allocating capital, and it's not over by any stretch of the imagination. the relief resaw today on some belief these guys are going to pivot makes sense. i think it's going to be short lived. >> julie biel, one last word. >> i think amazon is the bellwether i'm paying attention to for earnings. no one on this panel is old enough i am the one who remembers when ge was the bellwether and i feel
like now that's amazon i'm curious to see what's happening with the consumer, what's happening at enterprise they have their hands in so many different pockets i think they are the one to pay attention to in term of where the economy is going. >> the "g" used to stand for guy in ge so i think julie could be wrong. >> i don't know if that was sarcasm. you don't ask a lady her anyone. i'm just like, wait a minute. >> if you know julie, you get zero sarcasm out of her. >> never happened. >> about ge, part of that rally today is baker hughes. they don't own the same piece they used to, but it was an oil services rally that led into ge. >> not just big tech earnings on the calendar for next week, a whole bunch of bellwethers getting ready to report their results. we're showing you the wall we thought this would be the perfect time to play a game after trade it or fade it. supposed to jump in on that.
they told me pause leave it in the prompter america's "fast money" game. wednesday the it have bell, dean, you don't seem to like that title i'm giving it to you, guy. trade it or fade it? >> i appreciate it i mean, i was in front of the dean of -- what do they call that when you're in trouble back in college that's another story. >> were you adjudicated? >> that's exactly right. ford, you trade. i have been wrong on this so many times it's not even funny, but if you look where we traded down to and then in the middle of june, short-term double bottom this stock can rally 20% from here and still be in deep you know what. i think ford bounces i trade it but i got a short leash, maybe out of 15. >> steve, you're champing at the bit. >> champing, chomping to get into that one. this for me is going to be a fade i look back, you have a higher interest rate environment now.
you you're probably going to be selling less cars in a recession than you would have pre-recession. the fed wants to crush demand. it doesn't want to just bruise demand it wants to crush it i have to go back to february 2020 level and you look at the $9 level on ford i believe that's probably where they're headed to. it is a binary event tougher slot going forward for ford so fade it. >> next, boeing will post results bright and early friday. tim seymour, i know you're champing at the bit for this one. >> okay, champ i think bowing is a buy. i'd be trading it for a variety of reasons we had a great week for airlines you can't tell me that doesn't trickle into gold sentiment and the fundamental story around boeing needs to get back to free cash flow i think they're going to show $4 billion in the second half of
2022 investor week. you rally around that deliveries of the 787 means this is a better place china gave a lot of news about opening up their economy and quarantine limitations great for airlines, very good for boeing. >> julie biel, the elder stateswoman, what are your thoughts >> i agree with tim. i think there's a lot that's interesting and appealing here, particularly for unite right now who's embroiled with their pilots right now and buying more of those 787s helps them negotiate with those pilots because more of the guys want to be flying the wide bodies air bus is also in the mix for that, but boeing can deliver a lot of those 787s quickly, so i think they're better positioned. going to be watching for sure. >> u.p.s. to deliver their earnings report tuesday before the bell guy? >> as a great band -- i know tim is one of his favorites, great white and their song "once bitten twice shy", which is an awful song, and i'm thinking the
same thing here. fedex ran us down a path, and i think they're going to fall to the same pressures hasn't bounced since the lows a wuk ago. i think we're in for another warn i would fade it. >> guy worked at u.p.s. >> guy, seriously? >> yeah. >> what were you doing >> he was u.p.s. >> killing it. >> one of my favorite reporter at cnbc did this story that the outlook for e-commerce is lower by 2%. not a big deal in a normal year when it's going up, but this year it's pretty much flat julie work that trend, a downward trend of e-commerce, more people shopping in stores, trade it or fade it? >> i like paying attention to the name because it tells you so much about the consumer. i'm more interested in what they have to say about their supply chain and how disputes, labor disputes, intermodel we had with j.b. hunt this week. i'm curious what's going on with
that, because that gives us insight into how good or bad holiday is going to be obviously i think it's going to be terrible. >> there you go. mcdonalds coming out with their report on thursday while their breakfast menu is still available. steve, trade it or fade it >> trade for me. thiss the most recession proof we have in our barrage of trade or fade stocks but you always have to have the stomach for this one, because it trades up to 270, back down to 230. we're almost about there to its peak so i would still be a trader, but just realize you get to 270, there's massive resistance. >> so trade it or fade it? >> i'm trading for a bit you literally have to trade mcdonalds. >> tim, you have to be quick. >> it will me in i'll trade it. head wind affordability, and you have a case where u.s. sales continue to be high.
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happy friday welcome back to "fast money. intervene makers all seeing healthy gains today. they're not the only ones seeing strength in the space. eli lilly hitting an all of time high the question, can the strength continue let's bring in chart master, carter worth of worth charting hey, carter. >> it's a case of the least bad. we know all sectors are down except energy, of course, and those that are down the least, the obvious ones, utilities, staples. but health care down the least of the other ten that are down let's look at some charts. the first is a simple two panel chart. what you're looking at is the entire health care sector on top as measured by the spider health care etfxlv. on the bottom is relative
performance to the market. and those arrows drawn tell the tale it's down, the tech to have, but it's going straight up relative to the s&p nothing new there. there are several stocks that are at 52-week highs and poised to break out look at lily how many stocks in this stock market among the russell 3,000 are at 52-week highs poised to break out? not many lily is one of them. look at merck. exact same setup both exhibiting relative strength the final table is really the most interesting thing what we have is we know that health care's up more than the market in the sense that it's down less than the market, but these two stocks are actually up and so an area of the market that's better than the market and two stocks within the area that's better that themselves are outright darn good buy them both. >> all right, carter worth, there it is.
we're going to see you short will i in "options action. appreciate it. i'm going to start with you. one question we have about the vaccine makers, sooner or later the government is going to stop paying for the vaccines. if you don't have the world's best customer, can these stocks continue to move to the upside >> we've steered away from the vaccinemakers. we have been focused on big cap pharma that dips their big toe, but that's not the bread and butter to carter as point, both all time highs today and will continue that trajectory if you look back over the last couple years, every sell-off has been gobbled up, and i think that will continue other names that we don't talk about that often, like mcguessen just continues to grind higher personally, post election i think when there will be no more bull's-eye on the back of these companies that's when these stocks can really start the go higher steve, you hent hmm, but tim you looked at me. >> sorry, steve. got to do more than hum next
time i think the news about raising covid prices is what this is all about. whether this is something you want to follow through mode moderna are going to make $22 billion this year. next year, $13 billion if you add in this price increase it at least changes the story. i'll say this about moderna. 40% of the market cap in cash. it's a company that to me on valuation actually is attractive the question is, what's their next thing and i do think covid vaccinations are not the future. >> steving you want to elaborate on "hmm" >> mm-hmm. this is about pricing. when you talk about the government being the biggest consumer, they also kept their thumb on the lid of pricing. so if you have the ability to have prices expand for the entire group, then the entire group in theory should go higher you get a yield in a lot of these names. not all of them, but a pretty good yield in the handful of names carter
just talked about, i'd be a buyer. >> one thought, what about the people that don't want to take the shot government may keep lid on the price, but what about the people that don't want to buy this. >> i think that's true vaccine hesitancy is a real problem. but these are global markets and i personally think we will continue to have these pandemics again and again. and so vaccine -- and just everything mrna, that technology is critically a leader and i like any business that's helping companies develop those rather than the one who developing them. >> all right, coming up, an energized trade. the stock that just put in its best day in nearly two years where do we go from here you're watching "fast money" right here in the heart of times square we're back after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones
welcome back to the friday edition of "fast money." shares of schlumberiger soaring. stocks seeing its best day since november, 2020 let's trade it guy, you're nodding. >> you stay with it. i mean, talk to tim in a mink but we have been talking about energy for a while, and despite the fact that the commodity's been under pressure and steve's had a great call on the understood lying the stocks have done extraordinarily well. look at the big three names. all within a whisper of all-time high if not making all-time highs. this quarter out of schlumberger -- i think things are just getting started >> yeah, they mentioned that the
next phase of offshore drilling is going to be heavy also middle east and they just talk about how their numbers are going to be visibly higher than they're already -- reguided? how am i doing >> well said. >> they've already guided higher and expect to exceed that. if you look at the story, the margin excretion, i have been long them for a while and we're not done with this one. >> time for final trades, julie biel, ladies first. >> i like market access. >> guy >> stay in energy. halliburton is going to catch up. >> steve >> okay, i'm going to go with pfizer even though we talked about lily, merck, li'm looking for phaser to catch up. >> frank, great to have you here boeing, the minute you get more back here, that's the story to
follow >> that does it for us on "fast money. don't go anywhere, "options action" coming up next stay with us you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
it is friday, and it's time for "options action. i'm frank holland in for ms. melissa lee. the markets log their best weeks since june investor temped their fed fears. big test next week with tech earnings we're going to give you plays. netflix turned into a stellar performance this week, which means we should manage our trade from last week right now we'll explain what to do next. with me tonight, carter worth, mike khouw, and a special appearance by denis. let's get a quick assessment of the week's