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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 4, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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he said investors who stick with our shares will be patiently rewarded the next day, the stock fell 25%. >> it's been a tough week. for most not apple. it's you think in there. welcome to our show. see you again soon hope even has a great weekend. got to buck up for next weekend as well. fm the begins now. right now, a market leader unable to rally with the market, touching lowest levels since july shed $276 billion in market cap in just one week that's worth more than meta. will one bad apple spoil the market plus, are relief on rates. the fed may be staying the course, but the chart master says treasury yields aren't going higher china tech takes flight, prompts one of our traders to make some moves of his own
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i'm melissa lee. i'm in the heart of times square on the desk tonight -- all right, we start off with the last market general. apple shares ending down in red despite a rally. the stock clocked five days of losses in its worst week since march of 2020. shares plummeting 11% since monday isapple's underperformance a sign we've lost the last leg holding up the market? guy, we'll start with you tonight. >> i tell you what, i love november 3rd every year they just get better and better you know what i'm saying >> what are you talking about? >> november -- november 3rd. >> it's november 4th. >> i think he knows that >> no, wait! stop it. stop it! well, listen, on behalf of the entire "fast money" team and the huge audience, a very happy birthday at the top of the show.
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happy birthday. >> thank you thank you all. >> everybody loves you, mel. you know that. >> what do i think carter worth's been talking about this for a while jeff and dan have been as where he will. apple, they're not basically impervious to what's going on in the global economy, and i think we're starting to see it now, and they are the last ones that's probably going to fall. traded over 100 million shares today. that's the news. i think there's further downsight. settles between 120 and 125. i actually think this is a healthy sign. >> maybe it says something that the market was able to mount this turnaround despite apple not following along, tim we're having this conversation about the interesting moves and today's action. >> today felt like -- the s&p closed up 140 basis points so not to say it was not a -- day the move risk on and asset
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allocation where you're making a call maybe we've seen some of the worst and some of the head winds from inflation at least are things but moving the dollar was the most notable thing we'll explain in a second why it gets back to apple the dollar moves almost 2% lower at some point. not only is it a tail wind for the multinationals at the a tail wind for taking risk @not going to happen overnight the read-through from that payroll number -- it was a volatile day traded almost 2% 10:30 before we rallied back to where we were. the sense is not only did you get a higher unemployment rate, even though we'd argue that's the least significant. you had wage gains that year over year look pretty ugly but on a relative basis to where we peaked, they were lower. there's some sense this is less inflationary i get back to apple, and i think we've talked about this, that the structure of the market is we're seeing a changing of the guard. when you look at passi etfs and
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what percentage of the fund flows they are -- but i just think that there has been a change to how you're managing assets in this environment apple was the greatest beneficiary of that. as we said, down 8.5% in a week on the five-day. if we look at the move off the interday high it's almost -- we have been talking the about this leadership and it is about time. >> the rally last friday was a bit of a head scratcher when you think about microsoft and amazon and how they respond to disappointing earnings not a horrible quarter in context of the global economy, issues as they have as far as manufacturing with china, all that with a consumer that might be tapped out. when you think about the s&p, on the week is down a little less than 3.5%. the nasdaq is down 6% on the week however you feel about going to the close today, it wasn't a great week, and i think the
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violence a that rehearsal on wednesday, given what people thought they heard initially out of the fed's statement and today's price action on the back of that jobs report in act, to me wasn't a really great rally i think the fact that we're picking on apple -- you guys have been saying this. 120 seemed reasonable. expected earnings and sales growth, 4% guy made the point margins are flat to declining. still expensive. if you get to 120, it's probably just fine there. >> jeff, when i was reading the employment report it was kind of like, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. >> horse shack thing. >> however you interpret it. i saw this and thought, maybe we get to 4% and over 4% sooner than we think and therefore the fed is able to -- i don't want to say pivot but step down, slow down, you know, reach that
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plateau point faster, and maybe that's good news, jeff i don't know how did you view it in. >> it's trying to parse through every little piece of data, everything the fed says, and i said this last week, but i think it's important for us not to overthink this you know, we keep seeing these pivot induce rallies because people are looking for this one particular data point that might mean the fed's going to pause or pivot or whatever you want the call it but i don't think the pivot is coming. powell was clear, the peak rate is likely to be higher than we thought before he said it's premature to talk about a pause, and the bond market is reflecting this. whatever the equity market thinks it's seeing in some reports i just think we need to keep it simple, and i think apple is indicative of that. a decent westernings report, all things considered, and not so great price action this week, so i think when that happens you have to play close attention maybe the last thing i'll say is
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earnings have been somewhat of a bright speedometer it's been companies' ability to raise prices that is helping revenues, and i don't think that can happen forever you have had excess savings, credit card spending that's helping companies pass on higher prices to their consumers, and i don't think that's going to go on over the long-term. eventually these companies are going to find they can't pass on those higher prices. they're going to have to do things like cut head count to try to protect margins, and i think that's the next struggle for the market. >> i look at apple's move relative to the nasdaq relative to the triple qs. nasdaq rallied and apple was defensive. back to the dynamic structure market, apple should not be 7% of the s&p you all heard these numbers. at one point, peak market cap, i think the entire energy sector in public marks was valued about
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three-quarter of the market cap of apple doesn't make sense some of this has nothing to do with apple yes, and i think we overshot on the way up, and this is why apple's feeling some of the pain now. >> let's drive deeper into the two of had year yields chart master says we may have hit our peak let's bring in carter worth of worth charting what are you looking at? >> yields. i've just got one chart. there's a lot of synchronized things going on, as we know, and it's dollar, it's yen, and it's yields and here you see on the screen a chart, a two-year chart, yields having advanced from 70 base points to a bid over four. but those lines, they're not fixed or manipulated those are two parallel lines drawn mathematically by a computer, and yields in every
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instance when we've got to the top of bottom of that band reacted. as a rule of thumb, when you get to the top of a well defined channel, more often than not you back away or walk along and continue higher. very rarely do you blow right through. we're at a difficult level and i think ultimately rates will go lower just as we're seeing the dollar go lower. >> does this gave air cover to higher valuations -- the markets in general >> i think it's the opposite i know that's consensus. lower yields, lower dollar, and i'm not camp not therefore can kbin nant move higher but lower stock as well. if i'm wrong and yields go higher and higher and higher, not good for stocks. or the opposite, yields do start going lower, it means something is wrong, and that's not good. >> carter, thank you see you in a few minutes on
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"options action. it's a lose/lose situation according to the chart master, guy. what's your take >> i think in the short-term if yields were to go lower the knee jerk is going to be equities higher until the reason people figure out why yield's going lower because the economy is slowing down so i think he's 100% right the worst thing -- i think the likely scenario, just my opinion, two years are going stay sticky and ten-year might fall out of bed. you might see them fall out between 75 basis points and 1% inversion, which i don't think the good under any set circumstances. >> has 1% happened before? i'm not really sure. jeff >> yeah, i don't think we've gotten that much inverted, but i tend to agree. and i have been way early on this, so i'm the first to admit that, but i do think we're a lot closer to the top in long-term yields than a lot of people think. i went back and looked over the past eight recessions, the
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ten-year peaked prior to the recession and once after, and that was in the mid 1970s. if history is any guide we are close to the peak. i agree with guy given what i just said about the fed, they have much more influence on the shorter end of the yield curve, so that continues to prop up that part of the maturity structure. ultimately you're going to see longer term yields fall with slower economic growth i think just think about the bond market for a second, we're talking to clients about looking at the bond portfolios saying, is now time to look further out, look in yields and reduce the risk structure while increasing the income just something you haven't been able to do for a very long time, and now might be that time. >> cartersaid it's consensus that the yields are going higher and, the consensus on this desk is ten-year yield is going lower. i think it tops out there year, and i think that is a great trade. i have been doing it through the
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govt guys have been talk about the tltt >> i'll take the other side. >> oh, really? >> i don't think we're going to five or six, but i will say, as i said yesterday, 2% inflation target is folly. no way i look at -- we have a lot more to go, refunding the fed has to do banks are not running for the door, but not buying the same amount of treasuries inflation will remain sticky trends that are not happening. onshoring is inflationary. when you start to do things in the energy sector, it's inflationary when baby boomers are bidding up the housing market that's inflationary that's the enhad year part of the curve. the stuff i was doing this week that i think there is more to to and, it's not jump in with two feet, but gold is rallying the the dollar is starting to give ground, gold performed like
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a pig and should be absolutely the environment if the dollar's giving ground. buying e.m e.m. has outperformed -- we talked to china until we're blue in the face and probably put a bomb in the china market e.m. outperformed the s&p by 5%. i was buying e.m., casinos, and macaw casinos. china they're going back to work i don't know when it's going to be they're trading two-thirds below their -- >> when you say china is trading like a pig, that's bad. >> yes. >> i love bacon. coming up, we are not through with earnings season disney among many reporting next week. later on, "options action," shining afraid for gold miners why the precious metal names are set up for strength. how you should play them more "fast money" after this
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well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t- mobile home internet ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity?
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that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about. welcome back to "fast money. the bulk of earnings season may be behind us, but there are a lod of names on the calendar for next week. 30 s&p companies including travel and top retail all on deck let's play a little game of --
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>> trade it or fade it. >> that's right, trade it or fade it. america's favorite "fast money" game let's start off with next week's big one. that would be disney, reporting tuesday after the bell dan, trade it or fade it >> i think you trade this one. the rule, again, listen, if you're going into an event like this, we've seen stocks slammed if they're missing in any way, shame, or form if this were to go back, you add to that and build a position i'm more inclined of trading in front of the earnings with the idea that i would add to it on any disappointment. >> mr. toads or hallow president? >> listen, it's both i'm going on mr. toads and hanging out at the hall of presidents typically i would say tray it but since mills was there and left, you know, wake in his path, i'm going to say fade it on the back of the mills family trip to disney >> all right next up, capri posting results
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before the bell on wednesday tim, what's your take here >> i'm going to fade this one. some of the consumer discretionary is running into fresh wed mhead winds although the net trend has been down i don't want to chase any of this stuff, especially a company that until you had to add up parts was underperforming. >> jeff mills, capri, trade it or fade it >> i hear what the's saying i keep this one on a relatively short leash. that's been a key level, $40 solid profitability here, and i think their ability to maintain at least some level of pricing power, just given the fact they play in that luxury segment, they have been able to control costs well i don't love retail, but if you want to apply there, you look for a margin safety and pricing power. >> d.r. horton reports
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wednesday. trade it or fade it? >> trading i the housing story is still a supply story, and if you think rates are going lower, which i said seven minutes ago i think there will, tail winds to the home builders trade d.h.i. >> tim >> i'm going to baa humbug it again. i understand the valuation is priced in a lot of pain, but the housing market fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and lack of supply is not the reason to go out and buy. so i fade it. >> last but not least, roblox reports next week. jeff, trade it or fade this one? >> so, i'm going to fade it. i will say, there's something to this business. i talked about it before my kids use it, all their friends use it i think it's a long-term metaverse play, but i think they're going to passengerize companies for lack of free cash
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flow, and that is roblox if you look at e.p.s. to 2026, it is -- i've purchased a lot of robucks. that's falling i hope advertising is going to save hat, but that's unproven at this point. at eight times sales, i think the stock underperforms for at least the next few quarters. dan? >> i agree with everything he just said, and i think there's a good chance it gaps lower. fade the print, but i think you do buy this thing after the fact, because -- >> he's playing a new game, mel. >> look, i saw five stocks that were down more than 25% today. they all don't have earnings because they missed on results and i think everything jeff said is correct, but you have to think about what is your list and why you're doing it. jeff is doing that, too. i don't think you have to have a h hero in front of the print. coming up, second best week
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on record. we'll tell you what he is doing next you're watching "fast money" live from tis ua ckfter this. system, you had to give your right arm to find great talent. but with upwork, there's highly skilled talent from all over the globe right at your fingertips. it's where businesses meet great remote talent and remote talent meets great opportunity. ♪♪ ♪ this is how we work now ♪ i started as a single mom with $2000 and a passion for new orleans. i'm lauren haydel owner of fluerty girl. today, my tiny online shop has grown into eight stores. we're a must-stop shop for unique nola-inspired gifts. lauren doesn't just create cool nola merch; she creates opportunities. small businesses like lauren's
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achieve their financial goals. visit welcome back to "fast money" fxi, the china large cap etf jumping 7.5% today you have been in in it what did you do today >> i have been in it a long time what we thought was a
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capitulation a few weeks ago, bought the december call, and it's a double here i think guy has had this call here hail baa baa is one way to do it i think there's more room to the upside this is just the first leg. >> what do you make of this? >> the reversal is a function of way oversold conditions. if you think about what we went through the last couple weeks of not just the china lockdowns but some of the pressure, again, around baa baa and ten cent. i think these have been great trading ranges dan's playing it as a trader we don't know what mother -- excuse me, china is going to do. i have been preferring to play it across the eem, and in fact i was doing it through levered -- a levered three times remerging because i thought we got to oversold dynamics. >> there's a three times eem >> it's three times eem.
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>> deep end of the pool here. >> dance by the door here. i hate three times as a holding vehicle, but as a trading vehicle they can be effective. >> it's amazing what can light this group on fire these are internet rumors that circulate around and apparently the ministry of health in china is supposed to be holding a news conference tomorrow on covid and covid policy, so who know what is monday brings, jeff mills is this tempting to you in any way, just as a trade >> we had the fed pivot. now the covid pivot relative to china. so i don't know. we'll see what happens here. i think when something's as oversold as it was, to tim's point, it's major bounces. you have had five or six rallies that are 20% or more right now you're coming off a 50% sell-off you were 50% blow the 200-day moving average i need to see more to think this is anything more than a trade. because i think structurally
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there are issues in china that need to be considered. >> if you were to trade this, what would you do, guy >> would it involvea three-times minority etf >> spicy. >> that is the deep end of the pool, as you said zblrk. >> he's the ambassador. >> go back to october 24th we said it on the show, that was your capitulation. jeff said it, we're seen a number of trough to peek moves of 25% to 50%, and i think we're on the cusp of another one base on the move of october 24th. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn jeff mills >> we just got back from disney. i think you have my munchkins on the screen the parks were packed, the restaurants, hotels were packed. i like the increase in disney plus pricing we own it, will continue to own it. >> guy >> what jeff didn't tell you,
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he's the mouse, by the way look at newmont mining huge move today. >> happy birthday. hope the twins take you out to dinner melco, pricing a lot of bet. >> if you want to be a contrarian and hey, happy birthday. some tequila. >> i got liquor on my birthday perfect. thanks for watching fast don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next. ♪♪ ♪♪
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♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. is it possible the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire.
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it is friday, and that means it is time for "options action." i'm melissa lee live in times square with the fed decision and jobs data behind us, investors spent friday confused. volatile trading higher on the day. similarly they're conflicting signals down to the sector level to explain how industrials and gold are related and the economy ultimately comes down to the consumer, so we're taking a look at a way to go big box. with us carter worth and m


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