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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 7, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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signs of the market unwilling to fully let go of the better economic scenario that could be waiting out there. even though it seems like the ods are relatively long. >> maybe it needs to eliminate 75 in the december meeting. >> that is a start for sure. absolutely. >> we'll see you tomorrow. >> that is mike santoli. that does it for us. i'll see you then. "fast" is now. right now on "fast," a count down to tomorrow's midterm elections with several key business issues on the ballot. we're rolling out your midterm survival guide and meta mayhem as they get ready for massive layoffs. with the stock down more than 70%, is now the time to cut your losses and run tesla in trouble will elon musk make the road rocky for his other companies. chart master is here to lay out his case i'll melissa lee, and this is "fast money" we're in the heart of time square
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and we start off tonight with a big rally on wall street to kick off the week dow climbing more than 1.3% is now up nearly 15% from october lows s&p and nasdaq rising a percent as they await a big week for stocks and tomorrow's midterm elections and cpi report and more earnings. so how do you make sense of the market moves today and in particular, dan, it was technology that lifted. >> it was. and technology it wasn't a layup. we opened the morning with the news about apple and again that was a head scratcher. about two weeks ago, it was the only mega cap tech name that traded well after earnings so the realize is that maybe china sales aren't as good as they said two weeks ago is weighing on the nasdaq but i think you have dueling headlines and why meta, facebook was rallying and that is the sentiment that investors are like, how much more bad news could we get for the names that have had nothing but bad news over the course of the year. we're heading into tomorrow, we
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may not know the results of the election for a few days but it seems very likely that we'll have a bit of a split government and that is the thing that investors in the near term, before this cpi print on thursday morning, we could kind of probably continue to rally. but at the end of the day, it doesn't feel like a great proud based rally. mike santoli just said the seasonality of year end. that is fine here. but we're still in a bit of a mess and earnings are going to be declining next year and i'm not sure the s&p multiple right now reflects where earnings will be in 2023. >> so i agree with what dan said i think it was interesting today, sort of levitating. i don't even really know exactly on what. >> yeah. >> i don't know if maybe there is some feeling about china maybe reopening somewhat but you have to be concerned about the new -- i don't know -- cold war, whatever you want to call it. and i do think some of it has been the polls seem to show more and more of a red turn to the
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election so i guess that's part of it as well. and then cpi, i don't know exactly what we're hoping for. i don't know -- i guess something right up the middle of the fairway. but i think that if it is on the cooler side, i think that will again spark a rally even though the fed has been quite hawkish. >> yeah. this is -- today's rally where a day where you look at your computer and it looks fine and you walk away and half an hour later, what happened and which is basically what i did. >> i think sentiment has been a bit oversold and we've talked to all types of strategists and asset allocators and we talked about it last week, going into the fed print. i think there is a tendance why i to look for a reason to allocate to the upside so you're not missing performance and that is more dire heading into the
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end of the year when you have to turn in the score cord and then if you look at the polls, you are expecting republicans to take one of two seats there. right. and the pre-supposed side effect is that will be positive and lead to this midterm type of rally into the second half of the year that we've all expected but i'm with dan it is a push/pull between these short-term reasons for upside sent and an overhanging monetary and policy that is overhanging this entire situation. >> guy, was it a good sign that apple was able to turn around pair losses finish in the positive today despite that news that had been sort of an overhang or would you have rather, this is not a would you rather i'm using them next to each other. would you rather apple sell off. would that be the opportunity to take everything into consideration. the idea that iphone demand may not be as strong will finally be
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factored into this stock and maybe we could approach a bottom >> yeah, i think that is the question is right. we're looking for the finish line here. when we are in later innings of this market sell-off and that is going to come and carter talks about this, that will come on the the heels or the wake of apple trading down and making a new 52-week low which didn't happen today so if you're an apple sh shareholder, you were happy about how it bounced back. but it had nothing to do with apple itself apple is not traded well at all over last week and a half and other than the two days post earnings it hasn't traded well at all and to explain what happened today, we've talked about it for a while. october 13th, 14th and then monday the 17th, the set up there was similar to what we saw in june. the rally makes sense under those confines but i do think it is somewhat short lived. i thought it would last until the midterm elections, well here we are, mel. >> when you talk about people
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being underinvested and we've heard that since the financial crisis but the thing that was important about the whole period was that interest rates were really low and, karen, maybe twice in the last month and a half, your final trade has been treasuries, the two-year treasury yields, 4.7% and i know people, real investors with good heads on their shoulders about this sort of stuff who have been in markets for decades who are doing just that. so all of a sudden there is an alternative. we have a very uncertain outlook. we have the ten-year yield at 4.21%. that is where it closed today and i don't think a lot of equity investors have experienced that and the weight that it will place on valuations in an uncertain macro environment. >> here is a question for you. say since you are in the category of an investor with a good head on your shoulders according to dan >> thank you i'll take that from dan. if i had a bucket of money. >> a bucket of money to allocate to two-year treasury and if i told you the republicans will take the house and the senate,
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what would you rather. in two year treasuries or s&p 500? >> probably s&p 500. if the democrats keep one chamber, that will be a surprise and in the market will probably react negatively, i think. >> same question to you, bonawyn. >> i'm going with two year >> really? you so you don't believe in whole midterm election fueled rally. >> i think that you're talking about being an investor with a good head on your shoulders and i like to think i'm one of those and a lot of that is based on what are statistical situations. so you only have what, two months to play out you need enough observations for that to come true. knowing i'm going to collect 4.7% over the next two years, i'll take that >> q's and 2s. >> so over the last couple of
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weeks, i bought amazon and paypal and they have been down i think the risk/reward in those names that have -- i finally sold snap. it doesn't have earnings in this environment investors will get more comfortable with the names that have defensible earnings and a snap doesn't do that right now. and i also think that yields will go lower. >> could i say one thing did you fine good work making lemonade out of your snap position. >> we call it lime aid. >> still, whatever >> just giving you a compliment. >> thank you. and let's bring in lori of rbc of capital markets welcome back to the nasdaq great to have you back here in person >> thanks for having me. it is great to be here >> if we knew that republicans could control congress as a result of the elections and what would you do
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you think that is best case scenario for the s&p 500. >> think that the idea that they're going to take back the house, i think that is baked in the market i'm not saying it won't be a few days of good and giving us stability. but if they need a kicker, they need to take back the senate and watch the governors races because that is viewed as a read through into 2024 and how much momentum republicans really have going into the presidential contest. >> how strong of a catalyst do you think republican-controlled congress would be for equities in year end. we were posing the question of two year knowing you're collecting 4% and if the republicans sweep, what is your view >> so if you look back at at 2002 and that is a year that 2022 looks a lot like. there is about a 76% correlation. it was another midterm year. you got a 20% bounce off of the lows ahead of the election and into the time frame say around thanksgiving. so we may be half way done given the move that we've seen if you
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go back to the recent highs. you could get a substantial move from here. but just remember back in 2002, you didn't hang onto it in december and they retested the low in march. >> thank you so much for sharing your opinions with us and joining us here tonight. a quick question in terms of time frame of investment or how this might effect, are you looking for a possible republican sweep to lead to a three or six-month type of rally or a much more sustainable rally to markets. >> i think it is a great question if you look at the history of midterm elections it does tend to bleed through into the following year the problem is if you look in three of the past four years you've gotten flattish returns the following year so it depends on how strong the fourth quarter move is and i'm starting to fade the idea this is a big impact on 2023 because i don't think there is a lot of interesting sector implications right now i think it is a broad market,
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feel good trade but outside of energy i kind of struggle to come up with ap sector beneficiaries. >> but the overall market impact, what are the major impacts you see in the market? is it the taxes won't go higher or fiscal spend lg be in check. >> i think that will be in play and most of the analysts thought it didn't matter at all but ang month those would did think that the election mattered, they all pointed to the regulatory back drop and they thought that would be the big feed through. >> so they were close the purse and don't spend the money and that seems to have changed do you think -- it sounds like you think the market will react that way as if it is the old republican. >> i think so. when i talk to investors, i think they like the idea of gridlock and don't want any more inflationary spending coming from the democrats it is sort of the absence of doing anything more. and again i think that
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regulatory back drop is something that people think about a lot. but i wouldn't discount the idea of what does it mean for long-term because i think that people are starting to think about you know, 2024, that is here before we know it and that race is going to start heating up next year and what does this mean in the larger election cycle. >> lori, thanks for coming by. >> thanks for having me. >> what does a stagflationary environment do to the investment landscape and that is moist important thing for 2023 no matter what happens this week in the midterms, because we have a situation where none of us thought the fed would be as hawkish as they were when they spoke last week. so they could be wrong they were wrong about the pace of inflation rising. so i guess the point is, what i'm thinking about my portfolio, i'm thinking about different sectors and thinking about what is going to do okay, at least maybe less bad, in an environment where maybe the ten
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year is at 3.5% or something like that. and maybe growth is below the target rate. maybe inflation is higher than where the fed would like it to be in the low single-digits and those are the sort of stocks that will do well. i don't think it is a great return environment as a monolith invested in stocks where rates are high and we're going to have increased inflationary pressures versus what we had three years ago. >> the ten year at 3.5%. >> it is still high. >> it is good for kids. >> i think it should be good we talked about this over the last week. when we saw the ten-year go above 4% what started to get hit was a lost names that don't have earnings and high valuation. it is the theme of when things started to roll over in late 2021 when the fed made it clear they would raise interest rates. >> but guy, you have it positive that 3.5% means the world is going pair shape so that is more negative than positive. >> and i know you write notes in your book so you do recall and a
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gray with that 100%. absolutely if yield goes lower it is not because things got better, but because the market is selling off and there is a flight to quality in the form of bonds or people are coming into the realization that things are slowing down not only here but globally and the back end of the curve should be lower. so i understand the knee-jerk reaction might be higher for the market but when people come to their senses, it will be short lived. >> we have an earnings alert here own take two. the stock is plunging after the forecast for books missed estimates. it is down 16% right now steve kovaks has the details. >> reporter: it is the revised guidance downward for the holiday quarter and the rest of the fiscal year hurting take two. b but particularly in mobile lost of $1.54. revenue was a slight miss at $1.5 billion versus $1.55 billion expected now to the weak guidance for the current quarter, take
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two expecting up to $1.46 billion of revenue street was looking for $1.69 billion. and full year sales revised to up to $5.5 billion on the high end versus $5.89 billion expected so let me explain what is going on here. take two is blaming a variety of factors for the weaker guidance. no new blockbuster games launching, foreign exchange headwinds like we've been hearing from everyone else and this is the big one, the drop in mobile gaming spend. cfo saying on the call, just now 70% of downward revision in the guidance was due to a fall in mobile gaming spend. this shouldn't be a huge surprise at electronic arts dropped from 27% -- dropping to 27% from 48% in the year ago quarter. and a week about that, apple said at store sales were hurt by a drop in mobile gaming as well. so a couple of more mobile gaming dependent companies are going to be reporting on wednesday. we have road blocks and unity shoft wear which will give us a
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clearer picture of how long gaming could hold up in the macro environment but so far it is not looking so strong. >> is there details in the mobile gaming spend. what is the driver is it the in game purchase or the download of the games. >> they haven't said that. many companies do make money in the in app purchases but you have to by virtual items within the game and so that is where most of the money comes from in general. >> steve, thanks this is a sign of the times. when times are tough and you have limited money or you're money has to go elsewhere, the things you cut back on are things that you spend in that moment like these in app purchases, guy. >> yeah, it is interesting, the stock is trading 91 to the market cap is probably either side of $16 billion. so right now it is probably trading about two times revenue. dan could speak to that. but if you're looking for support, it is in the form of $88 which is the level we
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bounced from and bottomed out in february of 2019 so despite this brutal guidance, this third quarter guidance that is just -- it is awful if it gets down to 88 for a trade, i think you could buy take two >> i usually think of straus zelnick as a underpromise and overdeliver and he likes to talk expectations down. i think this is more than that a little bit but not entirely. sometimes it is entirely that. this i think is worse. >> yeah. coming up, more after hours action shares of lyft hiding a skids after the report what is driving shares lower plus the most dangerous period for oil prices the big warning from tom closa in menomts
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert for lyft shares dropping after hours after a miss on revenues the number of active riders fell short of estimates stock is down 12.5%. diedra bosa has the details on that guidance. >> you just mentioned it, the most bearish number in the
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report may be that active riders. it was nearly a million short suggesting what many has been fearing, they are losing market share to the rival and guidance coming in light and still somewhat unclear as the adjusted ebidta guide came up. the margin that is green said that profitable is on track. he still expected to hit the 2024 targets they laid out before that is one bell in adjusted bead, $700 million in free cash flow most of the call has been focused on cost cutting. green told investors to expect some $350 million in savings on an annualized basis from three categories head count, operating expenses and real estate. now that includes layoffs that we're now announced last week and cut back on marketing and getting insurance costs down and cutting office space by about half as its work force moves to more remote. even that cost cutting, not helping shares that are plunging in the after hours this is a company that continues
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to underperform the broader markets, underperform tech and especially other gig economy names. most notably it is rival uber. that divergence this year has just been growing. especially with this report now. finally, mel, don't miss lyft president john zimmer on "squawk box" tomorrow morning. >> thank you, diedra on lyft. it is tough to cut back on spending in a game that had been dominated by spending and growing at all costs and now the switch for lyft and having to compete with uber. that is a tough one, a tough pivot to make. >> and it is a challenging environment. and when you think about their business here and the core business in north america, a year or two ago we were like why is uber doubling down on this delivery and it is helping them. i was dead wrong on that i thought as a pure play, north america ride share, this would be a good ing this all that being said, i just say with the cash balance and the focus on getting to profitability and cutting costs, i do think as we think more
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about the autonomy future of this business, this is a company with like a $3.5 billion enterprise value i think i said this a few week the ago, if this stock has a single-digit price tag, it does become a quick takeover. >> i have to pull myself to the table and eat a little bit of crow as well i thought this was a fantastic play and i questioned uber's core business. right. we're knocking the companies for growing at all costs and it really felt like they were making a land grab at everything that was in their core business. and fast forward and you read through the earnings reports last week uber gave a rosier picture in terms of ride share, availability of drivers, and people actually perhaps leaning on inflation pressures to take up ride share. you fast forward now to lift and it is all coming from the risk reduction, cost reduction side and while i will give them
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credit forget ago head of the ball, it is a tale of two cities in terms of how the operations of these two companies play out. >> i agree with everything dan said and you said and including the crow, me too because i like lyft for the reason that you do and i still think it is interesting in the balance sheet issue, that they do have time but the sort of fundamental problem of today's earning fewer writers. that is problematic. this enterprise value is really not expensive. >> coming up tom closa weighs in on the diesel market. where he worried about the next few months that interview is next plus meta on the move. reports of large scale layoffs but is it too little too late for the stock. we have the details next we have the details next you're watching "fast money"ot .
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welcome back to "fast money. potential energy crisis looming over the markets diesel prices soaring as the inventory of products is at a record low for this time of the year just as we enter the key winter months when demand is high and it could get worse our next guest warns diesel prices could go haywire in the next 100 days. tom, it is always great to speak with you >> hi, melissa, how are you doing today. >> not good about the next 100 days we're on the vanguard of entering the most dangerous period and how dangerous is it and how high could prices go. >> i think it is trouble with a
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capital "t" and we have the lo lowest diesel and heating oil. we have the lowest inventory since 1982 and we've added 3.5 billion people to the world since then so it is very dangerous. we've already seen numbers that are trading 50 to $100 a barrel and it could be parabolic some for. if you have a potential to trade at 2 and $3 above the future's price and the physical numbers are already there now. >> tom, crude oil is the headline maker but the product drive everything, like diesel and heating oil. and they're back on their horse. i'm not looking to play stock market as i like to say, but i would imagine names like volaro, refibers, they went to this environment. >> i don't think they went so much
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i think they like the environment. i listen to a refiners earnings today and we're almost 40 days in the fourth quarter and i could tell the margins on diesel, on jet fuel, on kerosene or heating oil are way off the charts and are as much as five or seven times what they used to make i think they probably fear that somewhere along the lines in the energy transition that this will hasten us weaning off of fossil fuels but that is not going to happen for the next 14 months and probably doesn't really change until 2024 when we get a bunch of world class new global refiners in asia, middle east, that really make some more molecules that we will need by them. >> tom, we're talking about heating oil and diesel that's really -- i don't want to say a northeast problem because diesel is used everywhere. but heating oil is more specific
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to the northeast and so the way kpurs will experience this will be higher heating bills for their home, will be surcharges on shipments and things like that how will the global market react and who do you think we'll see in europe in particular when it comes to this energy crisis? >> well, it is very insidious to inflation. in the northeast, you still have millions of people who have heating oil. and i talked to one last week that had a delivery at $5.90 a gallon in a typical winner, you might use 700 gallons so you could do the math but europe is dependent upon russia or has been for the last few years. and we don't know what is if going to happen december 5th there is two dates to keep in mind december 5 th is the day that they want to boycott russian oil and then boycott russian refined products we've never been through this
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before we have a desperate despot in vladimir putin and he may try for receipt tribusion in some area >> it is such a warm thought coming into the winter it is tough. >> it really is. always 70 degrees in new york. so maybe the heating oil won't be so bad. great to speak with you, tom appreciate it. guy, i'll ask you to play stock market after hearing what tom said where do you think investors should be if this played out as tom is outlining. >> hopefully the places that we have been telling people to be for quite sometime between exxon and conoco-phillips and chef ron making -- and karen's oih up more than 50% in over a month. the disciplined thing to do is
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take money off the table i don't think that is the right thing to do to this environment. i think there is a next leg higher that nobody sees coming >> guy, saying caution to the wind when it come to this trade. >> and he said a lot of things and a lot of them made sense. >> you sound surprised. >> no. guy, don't let them drive a wedge between us we have a great thing going here so you mentioned refiners and then repeated them again and reading his research report, they're the big winners here and i this you probably continue to stick with those names. i think karen has done a great job with oih and you want to move up the spectrum and be right there with the emp names i still think those have a bit to run ultimately the energy complex is where earnings revisions still have room to run to the upside regardless of the partisan outcome and i think that is the only sector that you could point to in the current environment. >> and i just think it seems like a consensus trade here.
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you look at the xle. 40% is exxon and chevron and it closed at a match 52-week high and go back ten years to 2014, but at the ten-year chart, you have up to a hundred so you have a 10 up and 30 down scenario i don't think it is a great risk/reward and then the oih for you like playing breakouts, do these things look like great breakout candidates? but they've also had the 30%, 40%, swoons. it seems consensus right here. >> so karen's trade is -- >> thank you for calling it my trade. >> what do you do with it? >> i think you got to take some money off the table. probably selling upside calls that are probably a little bit pumped that is what i look to do. i have a texas hedge which is long and long which is the xle, similar chart. so i agree with dan. i got to sell a little upside calls here.
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>> bonawyn, you raised your hand. >> so quick question if they think there is a probability of going to the upside from now in the next three months and we're taking chips off the table when the energy, where the rally coming from. >> energy is less than 5% of the s&p 500 and in a disproportionate amount of the earnings growth in the s&p 500 this year. that is expected to trail off in q2 of next year. assuming that there is no new war or something like that. and the stuff that has acted poorly, mega cap tech should be the thing. i think you'll see a rotation back into the leaders in the prior leg. >> you could see -- i mean if peace breaks out, that would be market up and energy down. in a big way. >> true. the odds of that, who knows. >> small >> coming up, meta on the move shares highs after there is a report that layoffs could be coming. and shares of carvana
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welcome back to "fast money. another look at the market
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today. all three major averages rallying for a second day in a row. the do you up more than 420 points a gain of more than a percent and the s&p and the nasdaq rising a percent. and apple ending in the green. erasing losses on news that it will reduce production of the iphone on the other hand shares of pal an tear missed a beat on revenue. well shares of meta jumping 6.5% on reports that the company is planning to layoff thousands of workers this week anticipated to be the most sweeping cuts in the company's history. meta also among the worse s&p 500 performer this is year down 71% since january so if you own the stock, has it hit a bottom is this enough is this going to do, karen >> i hope so i mean, this is really, would you like to goo back too talking about karen's oih instead of karen's meta but i'm here and i'm long. and i think this is a very tiny
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start. they have to do a lot of this. we could see how much the market likes it but there is a lot more to do. >> on the conference call in the third quarter, zuckerberg was talking about the company ending at the same size or slightly m smaller. i don't think that the cuts fit in with that. >> i think that 25% one day down draft could change your mind and i bought the stock just below $100 after that gap. when sentiment goes so far the other way and the stock was down 78% from its all-time highs. you couldn't find anyone to say a good thing about it. and so again, it doesn't take too much of change in sentiment to get people either covering shorts or rethinking what an opportunity might be and whenever your time horizon is, listen, i'm not a zuckerberg fan o or fan of his vision of the
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future he's massively misexecuted in the last year. whatever they saw in 2021 causing them to change the business model, they got it all wrong. but is that doesn't marine the stock can't rally 25% on a couple of headlines of decent news and fill in the earnings gap and that is the trads that i have this is not something i'm in for a long time. and if you look at estimates for next year, they might have come down enough. p we're supposed to see earnings and sales, they are expecting to be flattish after a big decline this year. so this stock is sttrading at 1 times next year's earnings it is worth a shot on this. >> again, i'm amplify that yes, no, mark zuckerberg and i are not watching the giant game this weekend by any stretch of the imagination. we're not hanging out. i'm sure he feels the same way about me however, you could possibly buy the stock for a trade. and i took away, i mean laveoffs, that theadline, when they asked him this morning
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about tiktok and said they will be banned here in the united states i will tell you that chorus is getting louder and louder and if tiktok were going to way, forget about the uproar among many of our citizens, facebook will ralry 25% on that alone. >> bonawyn, this sounds like a options play to me if you want to play metaphor a ban on tiktok. the best way to do it. >> maybe you could sell it risky. if you've got the stomach for it i remember a couple of shows back, karen asked me when you would buy this stock what wrould you need to see andi find it ironic that they're cutting some of the on ex while still continuing to allocate money to the metaverse but it makes sense they're still driving forward and saying this is where the growth is and they're acknowledging they need to slow down the spend i don't ksee why not.
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the last time we saw the tiktok news the stock was up 2% but it is a flyer. i'm not going to say the company turned around and i'm a believer but you would make money in up and down markets and this is a opportunity. >> and about the last week or two, with all of the fears about the cuts at twitter, now facebook said they're laying people off they will hire good people so i think there is a lot of twitter people and snap people who actually want to make the move and really facebook will be a net higher of really good talent. >> just to add to dna's point, they have some cover because everybody is cutting that is good for them. >> coming up, bad karma for carvana. shares continuing to slide and there could be more pain to come if the company's debdeilt tas could tell us. plus tesla charging into some trouble. the levels you need to watch before it is too late. the chart master will join us next t
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♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. welcome back to "fast money. shares of carvana plunging for a second day dropping to the lowest price on record the move coming after the online used car retailer posted the biggest single day loss since going public on friday meantime the company's debt is
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yielding almost 30%. so what do these extreme levels tell us. karen has got the fine print. >> yes, something to know about the bond market. bond investors are smarter than equity investors so you have look at what they're saying. so we look at this particular bond, this 10 and a quarter and that is the yield every now and into 2030 so the bond market does not think this is going to be paying off. they're expecting a bankruptcy and then a question of what is that worth right. so if i were carvana, no doubt they're trying to think of everything they possibly could have stay liquid or what they could do they're going to run out of money if they don't do something. i wouldn't be shocked if we don't see a 10-q that said there is a question about this as an ongoing concern. those words tend to freak people out. but it is not surprising so i'm surprised that the stock
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is up here big short interest, maybe that is what is keeping it afloat but not looking good. >> well so karen, you just did your final print we love that this brings me back to 20 years ago. lori said this reminds of 2001 and stocks generally don't go to zero for the most part but when you see a company that when there were so many smart people questioning this business model at a $40 billion plus market cap a year and a half ago and now it is bankrupt i think it is good if you're looking for signs are we close to a bottom. >> did you say $30 billion >> it was over $40 billion we did a segment when i was pitching auto nation and auto nation was trading at a fraction aft valuation except it had four times the sales and they were profitable so tin june of 2020 or something like that. so i guess my point is, this is healthy to see these sorts of overexuberant situations go to zero.
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>> mike khouw joins us now for a look into how carvana options are trading. mike, you sold a car in carvana way early on in the early days of carvana but you actually saw a big trade today that was exactly what karen was referring to. >> your memory astonishes me that is correct. when carvana first came out, i was living in austin at the time and they had a big vending machine there and i did end up selling one of our cars to carvana at an attractive price and i wondered about their business model when i realized they were paying close to what i paid for a car four years after i bought it knew. which seems like a difficult situation. so we saw more than four times the average daily put volume january of 2024 we saw somebody roll 6800, 12 1/2 strike puts down to 11,700 of the five
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strike puts and those traded for $2.25 a contract the stock is trading over $7 and you're paying half the strike price to buy puts that expire in just over a year and why would somebody do this chances are if you own some of the debt that karen was talking about, this would be a decent way to hedge it. when a company liquidates, the equity goes to zero. sometimes, i'm not saying that case here, they have a inventory. sometimes there is a recovery trade. and i think that is what going on here. >> i've always remembered that, mike for more "options action," tune into the full show friday at p. eastern time coming up, tesla, why the ev maker could but in for some tough roads ahead. the chart master carter is the chart master carter is laying it ou
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nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. welcome back to "fast money. tesla dropping be low $200 a share since last may and the automaker could be due for more
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losses carter worth joins us now. carter >> i even think maybe it is not good but it is due for more losses. let's look at the charts i have seven, i believe, it sounds like a lot but they're all the same time frame. here is a chart of tesla basically two or three year charts no drawing or lines or judgments. let's put some lines in. we know there is a well defined up trend line and we broke trend and rallied back to the underside of the line and hit our head to the penny and then basically straight down over last three, four weeks look at the next iteration what this tries to point out is the authority of that line so the linep was support and the stock kept bouncing off it but once you undercut that line it becomes a level of overhead supply and resistance. the arrows ano tate that and let's draw another way so, here is the down arrow and that is key. are we going long from here.
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here is why i think we are look at next iteration this is as well formed topping out formation as you could find. you could call it head and shoulders, doesn't matter what you call it, we know the stock peaked before the stock market and today it made a new 52-week low. not many stocks in the s&p did that ome a dozen or so. that is a problem. let's keep going next iteration look at those lines. on the way up and on the way down those are perfectly symmetrical lines. tesla has hit those lines repeatedly last and finally iteration, basically what do we know. the stock is breaking below its june lows. the market is above its june lows only a few stocks are as bad as this but given its size and its constituents, his beloved, i think it is a big problem. >> carter, thank you carter braxton worth of worth charting guy, i'm going to bring back a game that we used to play a long
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time ago it was called higher or lower. i know you remember this so tesla higher or lower based on what the chart master just laid out >> so if i think the stock is going higher, i say higher that is the correct way to play this game. >> that is why we got rid of it. yes. >> lower lower. >> okay. >> lower and we've been saying -- listen, it is not like we just said this we've been saying it for a while. the stop is 50, a5-0%. so lower, mels. >> bonawyn, do you think >> is this the bottoming out that people are looking for for a rally. >> what do you say >> that is a new game. i'm confused here is the thing. i think it is going lower because i think these are tesla shareholders voting with their shares elon owns 50% of the company and then i look at black rock and state street and own about 20%
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so those are concentrated holdings about 40% or so. i doubt, maybe i doubt they're selling. but a lot of other people, a lost disciples who were in it for the elon trade are peeling out. they're watching the ceo spending time on twitter tweeting stuff that is actually alienating potential twitter customers and let's not forget the issues with china and zero covid and access to rare earth materials for the battery. that list goes on and on this is one of the worst looking charts it is probably right now one of the worst fund. al stories too. >> and apple is talking about demand for the iphone and maybe demand for the iphone and maybe there is a problem in cars i ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!
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final trade time guy? >> lockheed martin, sister. >> karen >> i know you could hope for a meme stock but don't buy carvana hoping for a meme stock because
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it is far more likely to be something else not good. >> bono win? >> i will be looking at j and k from the sthort side. >> dan. >> i like buying on the gap lower. >> see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast. don't go my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to educate and put days like today into context call me 800-743-cnbc


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