tv Fast Money CNBC November 8, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
that's the bullish call. it's interesting it no longer has those fans who feel as if they're with netflix i appreciate it. see you tomorrow let me remind you as well. on thursday we have a big interview in overtime. it's carl icahn. we have lots to talk about, obviously, in the market and other things i hope you join mess then. seal you tomorrow. "fast money" begins right now. disney dies, the entertainment giant missing estimates even as it added more subscribeser will the mouse house be able to bounce back? went from propping up the industry, and what it means for the decentralize the currency landscape.
five states are voting on whether to legalize recreational mari marijuana. we start off with disney steve kovach should be listening in. a lot to talk about, despite the growth and the subscribers in the direct-to-consumer business. also about eps, the biggest miss since the early '90s kid back over to direct-to-consumer they are now subscribed to the services, but it's the dtc losses that are getting everyone's attention the ceo trying to calm fears about that, saying those were
actually peak loss foss dtc. also on the call, chapek laying out three ways, first of all the price increase coming next monday spending less on marketing, and a better release schedule, now they'll be raising in about a months for disney plus to $10.99 with no ads. a new tier will be $7.99 and they have 100 advertisers locked up and ready to go for the launch in a year stroke bookings for domestic park, though shanghai disney remains shut down for the time being. >> steve, thanks here's a question. he says these are peak losses. that's a good thing. guy, do we look through this
>> it's a binary answer, and the answer is no you're seeing what tom roger has been talking about no, you shouldn't believe them eps came in missing by 46% and a revenue miss that's not good rpu was 3. -- down from 4.24 the only compelling case you can make -- i beat you to that punch, because that's exactly what's going on. this is a level we traded down to in march of 2020-ish. so it's got to hold effectively
$90. >> that seems like an important milestone. it's also now at risk of breaking -- we know the stock market makes a june law, it breaks that low in october disney never made a low in october. that prospect is now at hand. >> streaming is actually a headwind, a discount. >> it is we heard a couple things about and that supportive model, if there's ever a better company, i couldn't think of it than disney here they have a higher priced tier if you look at disney plus, espn plus, and hulu, they have more monthly paying subscribers than netflix does, and i would argue they have a far greater reach, a far greater potential. i cut the cord you know how i get my cable? through hulu i have a package there to me, to these guys' points, it's going to break at 90, you
have to go back to march of 2020 it's that low during the pandemic, which was '80. i just don't see a lot of risk, guys i'm telling you if start buying at the high 80s, all way down to that panic low -- we can say that estimates were coming down. they missed revenue by 5%, you know, this and that headwind if you're buying this thing at some point, which is what you're going to be doing, i think it's probably not -- >> capitulation, right that's going to come down. >> can't we make the argument for all of these stocks? there's been some dispersion and basically some rotation out of tech, but the capitulation cass to come as a monolith. that's why we're not going to bottom this month or last month.
>> in large part, the capitulation will happen because of macro concerns, macro headwinds. disney is disney disney has a great mode, a great content, but disney still lives in the macro environment, and we're still not seeing the full impact of a recession or tick higher in unemployment on disney are we i've been trying not to over-complicate the situation. i think they're still trending lower. so we're not going to find a bottom until way into 2023 inflation is way too high.
it's not a long-term setup we've seen that support, so it's precarious given where it's trading. by trying to take a step back i think it's a reasonable value here just thinking about what dan is talking about, you know, where are we relative to peak losses you have the ad tier that's going to at least help rpu these are important overall, but they're particularly important in this market i keep pounding the table on profitability. i think the long-term focus there is very good i think overall content is probably coming down, so it makes the economics more rational, going out a number of quarters, but i think the focus on making sure streaming become net cash flow positive is really
important, but they're going to have to show the market they can do that, things of that nature we need to hold the stock, but yeah, they're in a messy transition point as they look for profitability in the streaming space. >> in disney shares hitting after-hour session lows, down by about 8.25%. there's some headlines coming out now. the cfo is says dig any plus core subscriber will accelerate largely driven by international markets. so that's going to be an issue you brought up tom rogers. he keeps hitting on this hot stock. it's much less profitable than the subscriber here in the united states. >> you can have astronomical numbers, but it doesn't necessarily -- to a large extend that's playing out before our very eyes. disney plus is a business of a
loss leader, that's fine, then treat it as such this is a media and parks story. they didn't do particularly well on either one of those, either to dan's point, if you're in this for the long haul, i don't think you're going to obliterate yourself, understanding it can trade down if you're trading the stock, you trade it against that low we saw back in march of 2020 to carter worth's point. >> saying subscribers will likely decline because of loss of the indian premier league, and it was down 23% year on year this is some of the drips and drabs. the stock is noun down 8.5% jim stewart also wrote the book conscious disney war "great to have you with us what do you make of this quarter? >> it's not good news the big
headline is obviously huge lo losses. so that ballooning loss at dtc i think will be a huge worry for investors. where does this end? >> where do you think it ends? do you think that bob chapek chugs along? in the after-hours session, it's lost $20 billion already >> it's amazing. well, we're hearing more on the conference call of the deer tiruation, particularly espn you know, the cord cutting, the
loss of ad revenue, that's a problem. the big question is where is the pot of gold? and when is there a pot of gold? streaming universe investor are quickly sobering on this whole scenario. the idea has always been sooner or later we'll gut down to two, three, four very large sur survivors. and they'll ratchet up the subscription fees, but disney is showing progress here. of the blockbuster hits, playing bills onin programming costing to keep the material fresh, is enormous, and we're not seeing any growth in their subscriber fees the u.s. domestic average, you know, revenue for disney went down you know, yes, they did have an impressive growth in subscribers, but the bigger they get, the more they are losing.
i mean, that is a worrisome trend. at some point the numbers have to start turning around. we haven't seen it yet >> you mentioned espn. i wanted to ask you about that obviously the competition for sports is heating up it's such a valuable franchise how do they go about trying to monetize that and really make it a growth engine for the business i know they have talked about sports betting in your view, how can they navigate what is a growth area with a ton of competition around it >> i think this is a huge problem for them they see a quasi monopoly for so long, and now somebody with deep pockets, they're moving into this space there's no good news, when you go from one to two bidder to four or five with plenty of money to put out there i think the disney strategy, we're seeing a bit from the premier league decision is they're going to go for the high
margin sports events i don't think they can keep the, you know, the quasi monopoly they've had. you see as eroding with some of the nfl stuff, major league baseball, but they're going to have to carefully pick their shots with the marquee events that really bring in the subscribers and for which they can charge a premium of fees then they're going to have to pay up for those i don't see it as a promising growth area. i mean, sports may end up being a loss leader. great thing about sports is people do love it, they are for a nattics, and they will pay the subscriber fees to get the live, real-time sporting events. this is not good news for disney jim, thanks for your take. we appreciate this. >> sure. jim stewart of "new york times. what had been a good part of disney, a really high-growth part of disney is now the huge
sort of weight on disney a growth at any cost business, an environment where investors do not want that that's a problem, right? >> that becomes an anchor, you're going to be punished for it in terms of the stock price, which we are seeing before our very eyes. if you're good at it, al bet it i understand that netflix fell on hard times as well for a time, you get rewarded for it. that chasm is being demonstrated there was a gap in the chart up to 300 in netflix. we had when it was trading 185-ish it probably would get there, and we said it will pull back to 250. see where it traded down to the other day. this, to me, is a great entry point for netflix on the back of this disney quarter. >> after everything we just said about disney -- >> you're positive >> you want to be positive on netflix. i would just saying this i don't own the stock.
it's back to 2014 lows, essentially if it gets down -- we spent a love of time talking about this and that tidbit five years from now you won't remember this point in time. this is coming from a guy who remains bearish. i'm still bearish on the global economy, too, but if you're looking for generational opportunities, you're kind of starting to get them >> netflix and disney? >> not netflix disney we have to start dollar cost averaging, where because no one is ever going to nail the bottom. >> if you're long term and can wait out three years or so -- >> another 10% to 20% -- >> or any stock. >> sure. >> if you think its valued at this point, value investors are always early sometimes there's such a bad trap it goes out business, and sometimes they turn.
>> but not this mousetrap. >> not this mousetrap. it's important to say right now we are breaching the lows. it's happening as we speak finally, remember debt is a bad thing, too much of it, anyway. disney doubled its dead in the last four, five years, that is an issue. >> jeff, is that a concern for you? >> look, i'm trying to make choices between being long the market and where do i want to be to dan's point, thinking about what that long-term trajectory too looks like, with all the negativity we're talking about, i think we are overlooking some of the positives here. at 17 or 18 times next year's earnings with the growth prospects that i still think exist with the business, you know, i would rather by buying into a stock like that here than, say, the broad market. given the fact that, again, i am too bearish overall, i think you have to try to pick your spots i think it could be one of them, even if we do have another
10-plus percent on the down side keep you posted as the conference call continues. coming up. shares of kohl's surging, and what the exit could mean for the stock. stock. amgen is i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. e movi so, you can stay conne whento all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast,
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welcome back to "fast money. kohl's topping the tape after announcing the ceo will step down on february 2nd gauss is moving over to levi strauss, where she will become president of that company. investors are happy, the stock is higher. >> they're happy for now the board is continuing to lag its -- so i think leadership shake-up is inevitable, but it's cheap, still 40% below the 200-day. i think you can have some momentum because the stock is oversold, but it's been dead
money for about 20 years typically trading from the 40 and 70 i think with the retail company, and i have said this before, they are passing along higher prices to consumers, and masking falling unit demand. so you have these nominal sales numbers that look pretty good. these companies aren't firing people that keeps the fed completely locked in. when you have pricing power fade and demand really declines, i think you create even more of a problem. the last thing i'll say, because i think it's a great example, but amazon, for example, nominal sales, 14% above pre-covid trend. real sales, adjusted sales have fallen back to the pre-covid trend. so those are the dynamics going on in retail right now i think that continues you want to be defensive, the walmarts, and dollar generals of the world. >> for levi, this seems a good
hire when you think about how difficult it is for brand to get -- jeff just mentioned amazon it's a big customer of levi, kohl's was nearly a 4% customer. it seems like probably a good hire for a company like that, trying to negotiate or navigate this changing retail environment with bricks and mortar, and having this barbell approach. >> what do they call it when you bury the lead? they call it that, but here's the lead -- they guided higher for the third quarter and more operating margins were better. 4.7% this stock should be higher, to jeff mills' point. the transition is not entirely the story. this stock will probably see, i don't know, 16% or so, trading at a trough multiple in an environment where stocks like this can go up 15, 20% on nothing. i they you can own it here. >> guy makes it seems like it's
just been simply fallow to use carter's term, dead money or fallow >> something about being dead where fallow has potential if you make use of something, like a fallow field here's the issue three, four, five months ago the street said this company would earn $7 next year. now they think it will earn $3 the problem with p/e ratios, if your denominator is collapsing like that, is it ever cheap? its relative peak to all consumer discretionary stocks was in 2000. it's just, why bother? >> so it's dead money, not fallow >> i would go with dead money. >> like, would there be a headstone -- >> for dead money, a brown field
that has potential >> very visual we'll think about it shares of amgen is on the rise, as they're -- the name we're watching next, plus one cryptocoin learning more nan 70% of the value just for the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, today. actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction what drove the investment management business of prudential.
welcome back amgen presented a -- the drug is still in the preliminary stages, but the stock is up nearly 30% this year. guy? >> buy it on hope now, but listen, to me this is still a valuation story, despite this move, still an earnings story, still a robust pipeline. you add in the potential home run in an obesity drug, and you have a stock that continue to say go higher. we've been saying this seemingly the last ten year, for whatever reason, amgen doesn't get the love it deserves until recently. remember that show "lost in space" warning, will robinson, the warning robot. now you're in the warping phase. with that said, the stock is still cheap. >> i think it's fantastic. price action like this tells you a lot. if there ever were something that could be described as north
by northeast, steadily higher, never gets extended, what's not to like? i think that's what amgen's chart is. >> does this fall in the category of -- >> no, no, here's -- it's all about your time frame. do we chase something that's just broken out? no, if you're a long-term player, this makes it better the fact that it jumped just now on news, when a stop gaps up, it gets cheaper when a stock gaps down, it gets more expensive. >> jeff mills, what do you see to that? >> god-like, it's hard to argue with really steady up trent, you know, by my eyes, certain the price action is good i talked to our analyst today that covers this stock it's a hold here he thinking maybe the move is overdone by $25 to $50 you know, largely driven by this
halo effect from the new weight-loss drug amgen is showing good results, but it's in phase one, it's not approved yet, unless it's differentiated some way, there's clearly competition, whether it's lilly, november novanortis maybe the stock has already moved ahead of that. astrazeneca reports before the open on thursday that's seen a lot of options trading. mike >> it traded almost four times the daily put volume, the most active options were the weekly 59 strike puts and right now the market option is implying a move of about 3.7% by the end of the week we did see a purchase of 2500 of those puts, the buyer paid 31 cent a contract.
it is possible, given the stock has had more than a 112.5% run to the up side, that somebody is hedging some of those recent gains. >> thank you, mike tune in 5:30 p.m. eastern time on fridays two major players join forces forces the details behind the what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. next
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welcome back to "fast money. the action wasn't that straightforward. take a look at the big drop in markets midday, erasing almost all of its gain before bouncing back that move coincided with a steep dropping in bitcoin. it's very interesting. how do you make sense of these moves. jeff, what was your take >> i've been sort of tracking a ark and the ipo index, but what's been driving the market
for so long is there's an idea of pivot or some liquidity cycle. i think generally the behavior in those areas says, no, there's not. i think you'll continue to see that being a main driver going forward. i still think that we're stuck in this 3900 resistance, 3700 support sort of area larger part of the market closer to the lows. i just don't think the setup is that great when you have the top of the market, now contending with a downward slope, 200 days, tesla breaking that support. i think it's a difficult argument to make that the market is going to all of a sudden move to new highs when you have the big parts struggling the way they are. >> that's the market, jeff makes all the right points we are basically talking about dead money, the market is stuck, or churning as individual components gap down, but we're
not progressing. usually that's resolved lower, because you get resolved typically in the direction of the proceeding move, a lot of churn and you go lower as to crypto, though, the thing is bitcoin has a june low, mid-june, just as the s&p does, and bitcoin has never breached that low we're now right at that low, went slightly below it it's not a good setup. i'm on the wrong side of this one now. >> i'll just say this about the market, however it reacts tomorrow, let's say bitcoin is not an influential factor here, to the midterm result, the cpi on thursday, so the market continues its rally a bit, let's say the cpi number comes in not as hot as some people would fear, you probably have a bit of a continuation jeff makes a good point. carter has been making this for weeks, this rotation out of megacap, into other parts of the
market has been healthy. that's the s&p 500's outperformance the the fact that the nasdaq 100 is so near the lows is actually scary if they all go the same way, we'll be making new lows in the near future. we have crude oil hovering around 90, the dollar is right at that trend. who knows here, but again, i don't think we don't bottom this way over the last couple months. we're going to go layoffer let's dig deeper after binance announced it agreed to buy ftx. for more, let's bring in hunter horsley. great to have you with us. >> great to be with you all. >> you know, we had, you know celsius. we had three arrows. they were big hits in terms of
confidence in the crypto markets. do you think this is the next shoe everybody thought sbf was the savior of himself. it's a bit of ann icarus moment it's another shoe in the year that's had quite a few blowups i think it's definitely a bad moment. >> it sounds like you think this never should have happened are we setting -- are we seeing the continuation of this concentration of assets in the crypto have i that make is dang ross to the industry itself? >> well, i think that the broader trend that i'm hopeful investors are taking away from this year, last year i think a lot of investor said i want to invest they didn't care so much how they did it. this year, a lot of investors have been burned
i think there's a growing awareness from investors you need to be thoughtsful about the platform, the partner, et cetera, so i think there will be learning from this, and investors will have a preference for platforms that have a track record that they can be more comfortable with >> what's your outlook for crypto in terms of -- let's just pick bitcoin it's so tied up in what's going on externally around it, and it's being pulled down so where do you see it going here >> i think the story of this year for crypto is that as a liquid asset class, it's part of the same liquidity being removed from the system. down 60% this year underneath the hood, i think the story has unbelievably positive. you have seen a steady drumbeat
of institutions embracing it, fintechs coming in, so the macro tailwind has an overhang on that space. as it loosens up, there's a lot of opportunity >> it feels nice about the investors going in and awful positive things you listed, but if you're a investor in bitcoin, you're suffering losses, and the chart doesn't look any good, and so what is the case that you make to people to say, you know, or maybe you think you should not buy bitcoin right now, it is still too early, because it serum seems too early. it's no -- seems too early. >> we don't have a ton of history, but over the last 12 years, four-year cycles we've been in this space for five years, we've seen two bear
markets, and this year we're seeing some clients coming into the space, who think the potential is there, compelling, and see it as an opportunity this year for us, our client base has doubled amid st. everything happens there are some that are constructive, and i think it's a matter of sizing some mob has 30% of their assets allocated, it's difficult our clients are generally sizing at 50 basis points to 100, and i this year the surprise was more on the fixed-income side certainly crypto was volatile, too, but that was something they were signing up for. i think our they're constructive and thinking about timing. >> i don't think it's coincidental just as bitcoin topped -- and they have not been
able to get off the -- is it as simple as though, if global central banks flinch or blink or whatever dumb word peek wants to do, that's when bitcoin goes the next leg higher? >> it's not bigger or separate from those considerations, but i think you saw an interesting thing last week with the hawkish comments out of fomc meeting, and it was higher last week. there's a different drivers in this space, so i think though the space is rearing to separate from the macro backdrop. >> unit hunter, great to speak with you thank you. >> great to see you. coinbase was one that suffered on today as news, down by more than 10%, and had to come out later today saying it has no exposure to ftx or the coin --
>> that doesn't matter all of these exchanges have their own stablecoins. you started this whole conversation off by saying the guy who have been saving all these other institutions as collateral in their operations, sooner or later it's going to get around to binance, too, because a lot of investors don't trust the collateral supposedly backing the stablecoins. i was really surprised that the nasdaq, you know, or the market in general moved in lockstep with bitcoin i'm not watching it a heck of a lot. it's not impacting to too many things i'm doing, but it tells you again a lot of investor classes have their finger on the trigger. >> i would submit he invoked icarus, and i think carter has
been warning icarus not to fly too close to the sun. >> however, that strength in ethereum -- and i think you probably should cover shorts so i'm on the wrong side of this now. have i been bearish a long time, yes, but i'm on the wrong side why flip it around and get short again. it looks like it's going to break. it's all about sequencing. all assets make lows in june everything rallies, and then many have come back to their june lows and undercut it, which will happen to disney tomorrow bitcoin is about to do that. coming up, shares of affirm sinks. plus marijuana and mid terms founder and executive chairman of pure leaf talks about the of pure leaf talks about the states vote fog are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.
can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about. welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on affirm, shares are plunging after the buy now/pay later company posted a bigger than expected loss. kate rooney is here to dive into the nommers. >> the weak guidance had a lot
to do with peloton, citing slower growth at one of its biggest partners i caught you will with the cfo, who said it's a load of headwinds. if you strip out peloton, the growth numbers tend to look better that would be closer to 40%. he says that -- peloton concentration begins deconcentrating in the back half of this year it's down from about 18% a couple years ago, and then there's interest rates he called that an undeniable headwind the peak rate has moved 150 basis points since the last guide. he says the near-determine dead market makes it difficult. the call is going on now, saying
they're seeing low levels of delinquencies, which is a bright spoismt the the buy now/pay later company also affirmed it's profitability goals. that woven be until fiscal 2024, though >> they're throwing that "d "deconcentrating" word around. the forecast for the one partner is not great, so it's got that and the head wants -- >> and the peloton partnership tends to bring in a high credit quality, higher net worth customer that tends to be more profitable, so it's a strong partner for affirm in the good times, and that was seen as a bright spot for a long time, but they're trying to move to the revenue concentration. even though it's a small part of the gross merchandise margin, it tends to make much a bigger part
of -- but they also have amazon and shopify partnership, which we'll see if that can offsaid, but they're trying to deconcentrate, as he put it. >> not my word at all. thank you, kate. jeff mills, what do you make of affirm? >> yeah, we mentioned credit quality a couple times it looks okay now, but we all know the fed will do something in the labor market. so some deterioration of credit quality should be the base case. profitability is nowhere in sight. we keep talking about that as being a problem in this market i would certainly rather own, you know, say a sofi at two times sales with a much clearer path to profitability, at least happening much sooner. coming up, pot at the polls.
how the results could impact your money is right here on cnbc speaking of election night, pot making its way on five ballots today. arkansas, maryland, missouri, north and south dakota, weighing in our nest guest is boris jordan, cureleaf reported earnings last night. >> great to be here, melissa, thanks. >> in terms of the election, there's control of congress is at play. there's also they five states voting on recreational marijuana. which one -- which election will impact your business more? >> well, i think both are very impactful. i think we'll get at least four of those five states that will approve adult-use cannabis that will bring us to 23 states, if all five, it will be almost
50% of the country's states will have access. and as far as the congress goes, i personally believe that whichever way this goes, whether it's a split between the house and senate or whether the republicans sweep, the state banking act is making huge progress with a bipartisan support, we're as confident as we've ever been that we're as close as we've ever been to getting fundamental legislation around the industry. >> in terms of those four states that will legal aisle marijuana, how impactful is that for you in terms of revenue >> well, for two of those states, cure aleaf is a big player, and in maryland there's a big share, so that will be quite substantial. north dakota, a much smaller stake, a 50% market share, going into adult uses, less of an impact, but still nonetheless quite substantial. these days, you know, every state that's added does add
growth to our business, especially with new york and connecticut likely to go live next year. >> how do you gave gait what faces any other business, which is rising input costs, energy costs, labor costs in terms of margins, boris, and also potential just recession, you know, a deeper slowdown in the economy. >> we are definitely feeling a bit of an impact we did have a report quarter we announced $340 million. our margins however were up 220 basis points over last year. so we're feeling quite good as an industry. our industry is quite resilient. what we're seeing is customers are coming in more often and tending to buy slightly cheaper products so we're definitely feeling it, but it's not as profound as other industries cannabis is becoming a stable product, a product that customers want, and they're just
trading down to a slight her cheaper product. >> just like with detergent or ri tnk paper ri tnk paper bos,hated to be here? this is going to be huge. [michael] i want my daughter to have a livable world. [marquita] i just try to keep a [marquita] growth mindset. always good to see [manish] the only limitation is [manish] in your mind. ooh, i hope you all are getting this. >> good to be
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last check on the earnings off its lows, but still down 7.5%, disney, 92.47 is the level. affirm holdings, down 17.7%. and lose i hlucid. >> glencore, another stock, dead money since -- i'll say i think it has potential i would take a look at this one. >> in other words, it's fallow >> fallow. >> carter? >> well, something that's been fallow for a long time is gold it's showing pavement signs of perking up >> dan >> i agree with the general, jeff mills
he made that comment about sofi relative to affirm i like this one. i bought it recently, and it's trying to bottom here. >> guy adami >> such a great group tonight. >> and a big keyboard. >> huge. literally. thanks for watching my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welc welcome "mad money." welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but educate, teach and yes, at times criticize so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me