tv Fast Money CNBC November 9, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
here as well, a big interview in "overtime. carl icahn exclusively with us tomorrow hope you'll join us for that and get his thoughts on what the cpi is, mid terms, et cetera look forward to seeing you all on the desk and see what it means for the market that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. see you tomorrow >> right now on "fast" a crypto crisis of confidence finance walking away from a deal with fts, the coin universe cratering on the news. bitcoin dropping to a two-year low. will this be a crash and bur for sam bank and fried who was the darling of the digital currency world and markets sliding in the wake of the crypto collapse and the hangover of the mid terms will the cpi be a third strike for the bulls hoping for a year-end rally and later a mea culpa of sorts and major layoffs to come for meta and drilling down on what's next for the energy trade i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money.
with us karen finerman, and steve. >> the company is walking away to buy it non-u.s. assets. it was in august when same bankman fried was on the cover of "fortune" magazine the next warren buffett, and there is a caveat or could he crash and burn i guess it's the latter. a valuation of $32 billion kate rooney with the latest on this one. >> that's right, the deal to buy the company is off the table and in a statement the company is saying as a result of corporate due diligence as well as latest news reports regarding miss handled customers fun and alleged u.s. agency investigations we have decided not pursue the potential acquisition of ftx.com the company goes on to say in
the beginning our hope was to score customers to provide liquidity but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help this. had been a non-binding letter of intent binance was in the middle of the due diligence after announcing it intended to acquire the international side of the business due to what they call a liquidity crunch no response from ftx but sam bankman fried has reached out to employees saying binance had not previously expressed reservations and told staff he would understand if they wanted to step away from the company and he said he was deeply sorry for his role in the situation. he hasn't gotten any official statement. he reported that investors are told without more capital the company is likely to face bankruptcy, and then the journal saying ftx faces a liquidity shortfall of up to $8 billion. what happens now to ftx's
customer assets? it's unclear if there's any backed up or if up is out there with a big enough balance sheet to pail out the ftx company had raise some money from the biggest names in venture capital from softbank and blackrock and showed that list a minute ago. investors i talked to expect their equity to be wipedout in this deal. $32 billion valuation now. they are writing it off as a loss melissa, back for you. >> kate, they have a consolation of companies that they have invested in, and i'm wondering what happens to those companies, particularly if they wery will lying on ftx in some way for regular capital injections which means that they wouldn't have capital to operate on an ongoing basis. >> they had done a ton of acquisitions and sam bankman fried ironically, the one bailing out a lot of companies, voyager comes to mind, deals not officially signed and they likely now will not go through both of those companies had been
going through bankruptcy so that's one side of it. the company also has ftx ventures and they may need to go and tap the secondary markets and look for liquidity there so that's something the d.c. investors in silicon valley are worried about. they need to look to sell their stakes, and then they have some of the liquid tokens, solana and alameda, the henlydge fund or qn firm, there's now fears of different counterparties and liquidity risks in the market. you can see bitcoin down around 15,000 the last time i checked >> kate, thank you kate rooney. what's interesting is how this is hitting the markets for an asset class that's supposed to be independent and move indpepped think sure isn't. when bitcoin hit its lows we saw the market hit session lows this happened in yesterday's session, so what's -- what's the concern
here, tim, do you think? >> well, from a hedge fund community and from a counterparty community and even from a broker/dealer community everybody is wondering on who on the other side has exposure, and to the extent that i think, you know, in exchange is very different and a broker/dealer is very different as far as we know especially when you consider where a lot of these institutions have been at odds with bitcoin and have not necessarily been really partaking in it. i would say has it trickled all the way through to the retail and wealth management customers? i think you're in a dynamic here where you look at some of the levered exposure that went on and how quickly just a little bit of leverage in your portfolio and how it could turn into something that destroys people you could back to things like recent history like arkaikos and a domino effect on a multitude of other securities that many so of the hedge funds held that needed to be liquidated obviously you think about the -- about the direct linkage to a coin base and to some of these other places that claim they
have no exposure really to alameda and actually outside of what's going on in the crypto winter which has turned into an arctic winter. i think those are things that continue to hang other markets here at a time when you ask people where have liquidity positions been in a bear market that we've had with a ton of volatility, liquidity has been fine to this point and that's why this is an event that has everybody questioning where we are. >> karen >> i was thinking most of the selloff is what happened last night, sort a expectation of a big red wave that really didn't end up happening, and soy there was that, and then i think there's some fear about what's going to be tomorrow, righting in are we going to get a really hot number and then we'll be back in this, you know, how long or how high they raise, and then i think some of this, and this is a big move down for bitcoin, but relative to other moves that it has had, it's not that big. i think though the -- once your financial institution and there
start to be trouble you don't have a lot of time at all, so actually i find this whole ftx/binance thing fascinating. a conspiracy theory that i was talking about before the show where i thought bin ha nce helped with this run on the bank and then put out this olive branch of a letter of intent a letter of intent gets you nothing, maybe we will or maybe we won't and i don't know if they could do a deal if antitrust would let them do a deal if they wanted to, instead let ftx fail i think is the thinking and, yes, it will hurt us, binance in the short term and we'll survive but there will be no competitor. >> stronger in the end. >> despite the short-term pavement grasso, what did you make of the moves in the market today, and do you think it's mostly this fear about who is on the other side of this in terms of exposure, or is it mid terms? it seemed like, you know, in the beginning of the day when
everybody thought that binance was in fact going to come to the rescue of ftx that the markets weren't really moving too, too much on the mid terms. >> yeah. i think it's -- i think it's all of that, right, so i think it's ftx and disney i think it's the red wave that didn't happen to the degrew as karen stated, but i -- but i also think just on the red wave thing. i think that people don't understand it's going to be gridlock regardless. so it's a lack of understanding. because if didn't happen to the extent, i think people are confusing it what rallies markets is gridlock there's going to be gridlock either way so i think that's where the markets sort of got it wrong i do believe, you know, tim is correct. once people start thinking there's going to be an illiquid event or liquidity event, they start to sell what they can, so if you have equities, you're going to sell that, and you're getting nervous if you have exposure to any of the other
cryptocurrencies, so i think it's a host of things. i think it's three things, but i think it's still a buying opportunity going into year end because once people realize there's gridlock, the markets are going to real again. >> right unless you think that is barometer of risk appetite in the market so this other leg downward for crypto universe overall is a bad sign for a market that's supposed to seasonably go higher at this time of year, julie. >> yeah. i think crypto really hasn't met up to all of its promises. if you just look across the landscape. it's supposed to be decentralized. well, actually it's extremely centralized if you look at it. it's supposed to be untethered to the rest of the economy, and it clearly isn't i don't think there's a single corporate board right now that's asking itself, hey, how do we accept bitcoin as legal tend earning right? so i think the broad acceptance of it is questionable at best, and what i worry about is how many young investors who got
really excited about being involved in stocks, stocks and crypto are getting really burned on both sides of that, and that's really going to put a bad taste in their mouth and those are the future investors we're all kind of depending on. >> i think that's right, and we've about talking over the last couple of years, since we re-franchised a bunch of retail invest thoors have been in power and look at your emc stock and look at your gamestop, some of this is all flowing together one of the good things about this for markets is one of the last shoes that at least -- well, one of a number of shoes that need to drop is we need to see speculation out of this market if we're ever going to put in a bottom. this was the epicenter of speculation. this was a place where i do think there was a lot of excess money. i do think there were people that were margined to the hill and if you think of the volatility inherent in these assets, i think the regulatory dynamic is also fascinating because you're getting into this whole part of to what extent were these things actually
securities that they were trading, and this is where the s.e.c. very much cares, they trade in securities, and if you're a exchange what's the relationship and is there an inhaunt conflict on some side of trading underlying securities that you have a role not only in creating but actually facilitating liquidity on. this is why we've always said more regulation is good for bitcoin and crypto it's a little ironic that the people that have been seen as some of the wile west gunslingers are the ones saying, hey, come on, bring it where have the regulators been on this stuff because in fact this has been the wild west. >> for more on the shocks waves from the ftx difficulty, let's bring in dave riply, chief operating officer and ceo of kraken which is a crypto exchange dave, great to have you with us. you in the notes you say, you know, people should know that you should only put money or assets on an exchange that has a 1-1 reserve backing. i mean, what are you saying in terms of the likelihood that ftx
customers will get back their money then >> well, that's a great question i don't have any inside information on this, but i'm, you know, reading 9 same tweets as everybody else and watching the same news clips and everybody else but it does seem pretty apparent based on what ftx and the leadership has proposed, it's going to be pips on the doll sglaer what are 9 next shoes to drop i mean, when it was three hours cap 258, all w07dering, of course, who was going to be next and who was on the other side in who has the risk a how do you think about that >> yeah, i mean, it's a great question you have ftx and then you have al moda an where was there exposure to either of those
entities did ftx borrow from customer fund but they typically bothered funds from others, hoy network investors and kind of bilateral deals. again, i don't have any inside information to what those structures looked like, i mean, yes. galaxy did announce they had some direct exposure to al meado and they have already communicated that externally. >> karen finerman. thamgts for coming on. we make a look at some of the chet rall kj that you can easily come to. who else might be there. what are some of the ripple effects that they don't -- don't don't to mind. those are.
custodians funds, investing funds, trading placing, placing where there's, posh you're, holding your own bitcoin and holing your own keys you don't have any exposure to this type of a loss. it is a possible there's other exchanges out there that are going to be yes another shoe to drop when you think out, you know, five years down the line by seems like a million years in crypto land, but does it look like the help tis exchange rate where there's a couple of players that are highly regulated. good question. we -- we -- we've engaged in
regulator globally and we have registrations in north america, europe an beyond and what we've seen over the past couple of years is that regular haters create more in space or create more devillanova licenses or augment existing license structures yeah, i think it's of it to say that that more education will come to the -- dutch as our business. >> dave, great to speak with you. thanks for your peck sperive dave ripley of cracken certainly saw a lot of knock-on event. you mentioned coin-based who had which ftx has a stake in silvergate capital which was, you know, known as the digital currency bank. they had to put out a statement today saying that they are fine
which is never a good sign, right? >> yes they are like we're a-okay and our loans are performing just fine that's not hardly ever good. >> how about the companies -- we were having conversations about how much treasury should be placed instead of in dollared in bitcoin, and then you had the extreme examples of micro strategies where you really have someone put all the chips on the line there of i think this is where we rear going to continue to see where that, posh you're is we won't know for days, weeks, months but we will hear from a lot of companies think about the companies that we've talked about that were derivative or at least applied crypto trade and those are the ones weave shown on the screen it's going to be ugly. >> speaking of hood, we haven't seen ftx's stock trade, have we? what do they own, $56 million shares of -- >> of hood >> of hood you would think they have to liquidate whatever they can,
right? >> right. >> they have to come up with whatever cash they can are they a deed holder you would think that we would have to see something something? >> sure. >> that's what's weighing on hood as well but we haven't seen that stock yet. >> coming up, all over the after-hours action in riffian. we'll bring you the details next job cuts take meta the company laying off several what all this means for the stock when we return ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.
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welcome back to f-funnor money. rivian earnings report as q3 earnings fell short of top and bottom estimates phil joins us with the latest. >> reporter: adam joan as asked a question a lot of people asked, a nice improvement from gross profit from q2 to q3 what did they do a number of things on the answer now including the fact that they have become much more efficient in terms of how they are using their capital and the production system, becoming more mature, so as you take a look at shares of rivian, and, yes, they were up as much as 8% initially after the numbers came out
we'll explain in a little bit. remember, they did post a smaller than expected loss of $1.57, revenue, light of expectations, 536 million and the street weeks pecting 551 the outlook is driving the stock higher first of all, they reaffirmed their guidance to build at least 25,000 vehicles this year. the production is gradually ramping, though they have seen some supply chain issues that caused them to bring down production five days during the quarter, so that is still an issue that's out there, not just for rivian but all automakers. the reservation total jumped from 98,000 in early september to 114,000 by the way, they announced they no longer are giving the reservation total in the future. they believe it's ample enough that they don't need to continue updating that. take a look at shares of rivian like so many of the ev stocks it's been under pressure and keep in ind that their full-year guidance was reaffirmed both in terms of how much they expect to lose, $2.7 billion and a free
cash flow being negative 1.66 billion in the third quarter they finished with 13.8 billion innish can a melissa, i'm going to jump back on to the call right now no doubt that investors look at this, whether you want to call it a relief rally or a sign that things are moving in the right direction for rivian, that's the reason the stock is moving higher primarily on the guidance for where the company is and where it expects to go in the fourth quarter. >> all right phil, thanks keep us posted, phil lebeau. steve grasso, what do you think of riff yap in. >> sort of like what the democrats did last night had a less bad event and this is a less bad event for rivian, so the stock actually pops off of that, but as phil highlighted at the end. they still have a ton of cash. they still have their amazon deal amazon has about 1,000 vans that will be here in time for the holidays they still have their jv partnership with mercedes. still a lot of things but need to figure out the growing pains.
this is not a success story. the stock has gotten pummeled. they have to prove that they are capable of sitting at the big boy table and haven't done that as of yet. i'm long the name, and i'm not happy about it. >> a short time ago as october there is real skepticism surrounding the production targets and the ability to make their year-end targets so relieve is the nice way of putting it it's just, wow, thank goodness, julie. >> yeah, no, i think, you know, at the end day you look at this stock, it's down 73 boston for the year and even so, you know, if you look at it price per car, the 25,000 cars if you look at that relative to the market cap, that's still $1.4 billion per car. even overpriced tesla is $500,000 and that's a rudimentary metric to look at, and it does tell you, first of all, how expensive rivian once was and even at these levels i agree with steve like the level of execution that has to happen is still pretty
high the complexity of building a car and we all understand the supply chain it's really difficult and distribution to this in me is still the biggest question competing against something like a ford where the distribution is really clear it's difficult tesla learned that the hard way and it took them a long time. >> the tesla dynamic is interesting. whatever they did or did not do, they still have a lot of cash. they are going to burn $5 million in cash. what happens in markets when money is no longer free? look, riff yap has a great product and i think they will get there. the reaffirmation of 25 grand, supposed to get up to 67, but this is their issue. think need to ram up as quickly as possible. that's where at some point they need to break even and right now 13.8 billion seems like a lot of money in this environment at the
rate they are burning it. >> do you think -- maybe they can go. >> amazon has deep pockets, about as deep as you can get and that the -- is that the time for amazon to buy them, or ford? >> i'm not sure where ford guess that money. >> that's true. we've got a news alert out of washington. the president making some comments about elon musk ka kayla touch has the details he spoke about the upcoming meeting with president xi and spoke with the continuation of aid to ukraine it was his comment about the international deals of elon musk in his acquisition of twitter
that made these newsworthy remarks. >> i think that elon musk's cooperation and/ortechnical relationships with other countries is worthy of being looked at. >> specifically about the large share holding from the saudi government and whether should be a security review of the acquisition or of musk himself, and he spoke as you heard rather oblique by about that possibility but suggesting there should be an when they addressed this before they said any position national security review of this deal is not true. it's not hamming and when there was a follow-up question as to what kind of venue the stunt
would take place it. >> kayla tausche. >> boy, this complicates things a little bit elon musk, ses la -- this is something we haven't seenble and -- despite over and over and other again that he's not selling stock again which he continues to do. here's a pop review, karen the irony of sivias from you, i find that amazing in some way and then what he have to do, sell it and to sfwhom. >> nobody else was in line. >> and what happens to tesla's stock price during that time >> yeah, i don't know. i don't know that that will
happen i mean, maybe he can step away and not be -- and have a ceo run it. >> right, right. >>ies that a fix maybe. >> a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next job cuts hit meta. the company laying off thousands as big tech's worries continue how the move couple pact the stock and the met averse next. plus, a red day on wall street, a hang yore from the mid terms and crypto -- the third terms and crypto -- the third strike forne or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments
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i want to say up front that i take full responsibility for this decision, and i'm -- i'm the founder and ceo. i'm responsible for the health of our company, for our direction and for deciding how we execute that, including things like this this was ultimately my call, and it was -- it was, you know, one of the hardest calls that i've had to make in the 18 years of growing the company. >> that was meta ceo mark zuckerberg speaking today on a video provided by nbc news by an employee impacted by today's lay yochts the company is cutting 11,000 employees from its payroll, 13% of its workforce as it tries to cut costs in its transition to the metaverse. stock jumping on news of this layoff, significant down 70% this year so we asked again does the story get better or does look worse jill, what do you think?
>> you know, it's interesting, right, that we announce this on the day of the mid terms when it sort of gets lost in the news cycle, but it's also interesting because it happens right after elon fires half of his workforce so they don't really look that bad getting rite of 3,700 people if you look generally at business trends most companies are back to where they were pre-pandemic, and if you look at facebook they hired over 45 people during the pandemic so this 3,700 probably is more like 37,000 i think there's more to come honestly for business. what investors are hoping for is that it's in vr, not necessarily the add business. >> they want to hear about us in reality lapse. >> there's the part of cutting spending. >> right. >> all have been really fat for a very long time and they grow, grow, grow all of them, microsoft, whoever, google they are all thinking more about
their costs. that's one part, but to julie's point exactly. is it -- is that where all the jobs are 11,000, or is it, you know what, scaling back this meta snush that would be received better. >> 11,000 of those jobs would be -- because they are uncertain. >> cap "x" is a place where the stock would rock it, and here have you a ceo that's gone out there and done a bit of a mea culpa. why canty had go out there and say this metaverse thing is something we're excited about it and we don't need to run that fast into it i think the stock would rocket, whatever that number would be, and to me that's -- that's the story in meta, and it's interesting the price action also, because this is not a company -- if you look at the short interest in meta it's less than 1%.
not like this is a stock with a ton of people targeting it. >> and there is the black swan of tiktok. >> you keep bringing that up, karen. still hasn't happened. >> it keeps getting a little bit bigger >> do you think so >> i do think so mark zuckerberg can plan whatever he wants to spend on the metaverse. does the stock's problem get solved or is it a fundament a.m. he's spending so much on the metaverse, that's the end goal for him and the right strategy if it's not the right strategy today, tiktok going away doesn't make that the right strategy tomorrow, does it is >> no, that sort of stands alone. >> right. >> but the core of the business that makes so much money, instagram. >> the biggest competitor. >> biggestcompetitor goes away >> it's a lifeline though. >> it's more than a lifeline they are not drowning, right they are not drowning? they are making a fortune, but
it's clouded by -- by the other push, so, i mean, if tiktok went away that would be -- >> how much of this is cyclical? how much is just the time that we're in and tiktok announced today a 20% hit to their ad sale and it's happening to everybody? we lose sight of that. again, i say the media companies were the first ones hit on any whiff of recession and that was nine monies ago. facebook has a ton of other problems, but i think some of this is stuff that's not really existential. >> yeah. saying they were pursuing the metaverse as their number one goal two years ago was great today, no. it's a completely different environment. coming up, stocks sinking as mid-term results condition and crypto's crushing squeak dragging down more thabioin tcn. the impact it's having on robinhood. more on "fast" when we return.
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take a look at disney dropping more than 13%. that's its biggest decline since 2001 it. lost $34 billion in market cap in just one day after yesterday's earnings report. our next guest expects the u.s. economy to avoid serious recession despite historically high inflation katrina dudley is a portfolio manager and investment strategist at franklin mutual advisers and has an $8 billion under management great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> so what stuck out to me in your notes and we'll talk about your macro and all of that is that you like housing and this is totally out of consensus kind of trade, and i'm wondering if this is sort of an outlier trade, sort of like an independent trade, or if this is tied to what your macro view is? >> if you take a look at the macro environment, it's so easy to be negative on the housing stocks in particular, and we are talking about the housing stocks in this sense we've got a market that's completely undersupplied.
we haven't been building as many homes as we need yes, we know what's happening with mortgage rates. mortgages are making homes less affordable, but the key to afordability is simple people will buy smaller homes with smaller footprints. we've seen that time and time again. >> so if mortgage rates -- do you think mortgage rates will go higher i'm wondering what's embedded in this thesis of yours can mortgage rates go higher, or do you think they are capped here in terms of the ten-year yield? >> i think they will go slightly higher if we have a look at what we're expecting from the fed going into the end of the year and early next year, we still think that there are some rate rises coming i think the pace of those will slow, but if we do ton have the rate rises we'll see mortgage rates go higher, but they won't go higher at the same clip or the same pace that we've seen them go high over the last year and a half, so i think that we're lessening the pace and the burden of those higher mortgage rates. >> katrina, it's tim, thanks for
joining us something else that jumped out from the notes was your commentary on european investing especially because of the currency tailwind. someone who has been in the emerging markets, fx is sometimes half your return profile. can you talk about that and also the underlying markets though because we kind of get some of the current account surplus dynamics for the euro but the underlying stocks still have a lot of headwinds. >> look, if i take a look at what's happened in europe, most people are very surprise that had in local market terms or local currency terms the market has actually done better than the united states, and europe is really facing a number of headwinds and they are very clear. it's the ukraine and russian war. it's the energy crisis and also they have facing the same monetary headwinds that we are here we think the market will be able to take advantage of that. we think they are already priced in so we think it's a really good setup here for european equities going into year end and setting up into next year. >> all right katrina. we'll leave it there for today thanks so much for joining us.
katrina dudley of franklin mutual advisers. julie, where do you stand on any of the trades that katrina has, and what are you thinking? what do you think is the best cpi tomorrow >> i think protecting yourself for cpi and being in a position where you own durable businesses with pricing is -- is pretty important. think actually her point on housing is really interesting. if you look at where a lot of those home builders, are many of them have really learned their lesson from the last housing downturn they have a different approach to how they are putting their land banks together, and i think they are smart enough to be able to put together houses that are more affordable. i think they are all looking at their punch lists and sheets and saying they are in the going to do surround houses anymore there's such a intense shortage of housing that i think they probably won't be absbad as they have been in the past. that doesn't necessarily mean that they are investable for the long term but i do agreement i
think, know, it could be overdone here. >> grasso? >> yeah. so dr horton is known to be a spec builder, and it has the best chart in the entire home building complex i wouldn't -- i wouldn't run out to buy the home builders because of all the obvious headwinds, but dr horton, if we're concerned about supply, they are the ones with the supply on the market. coming up, some low energy in today's session the group leading the losses as crude heads south. we'll dig into how you should be playing the space ahead. the crypto meltdown hitting more than just tokens more on that when "fast" returns.
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i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin hitting its lowest levels in two years amid the fallout of ftx robinhood getting swept up in the volatility dropping 14% today. one options trader betting it could drop another 50% from here dennis savage breaks down the action what did you see >> trading is fun again when you start seeing options markets move around like they have now i've been in these markets for 0 years. one of the things that you're seeing right now is trades that are more like what we saw in the
financial crisis, not like the dotcom crisis. what you mentioned is a down 50% put on robinhood so somebody bought a $4 put robinhood an $8 stock, paid 14 cents for that so roughly 2.5% of the value of the option we're seeing a lot of trades across silvergrate, micro strategies and a lot are worried with them down 94% in some of the light coins. pretty wise protection and easy to access in the options market. >> wow it's interesting that you mention all those names. micro strategies, jeffries had a note this afternoon raising a near-term liquidity risk he said there's a solvency ring. never good when you put solvency in your note on a company of it being a real risk here, tim. >> in fact, people are trying to put a base number on bitcoin and, you know, this is how analysts are doing it on micro
strategies and seep some with 5950 target and put a basic conservative of 13,500 an this is where we can manage what their treasury is in underlying bitcoin, but i think there's a lot more to come for more "options ac"tune into the whole show friday at 5 30k p.m. eastern time. paul sank erk has brand new pair of trades going overseas for opportunities. we've got the names when "fast money" comes right back.
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welcome back to "fast money. big oil seeing a major selloff today. conoco phillips over 7%. petroleum feeling the paper. the pullback coming as crude slumped almost 4%, almost back below $90 a barrel and it may be a key buying energy. energy analyst paul sanke has a way to trade the space he's with sanke research, the top analyst there. you say we have a supply company there. the company is not raising production forecasts what does that mean? >> it starts with russia so you've obviously got a problem there. look at saudi arabia and how much they are spending they need answer tra million barrels a day
of capacity over the next five years and i was just at the phillips 66 analyst meeting and they say global oil demand is going to grow 7 million barrels a day over the next step years so you've got a problemance, and it just doesn't add up today's d.o.e. had inventory builds and if you look at the demand side demand is still very strong, 20 million barrels per day and all of this is real economy. has nothing to do with, you know, some of the more esoteric things that you're talking about, real people using real oil and, you know, it's a big deal the final point i will make is the world went past 8 billion in population so this is real stuff and employing that much oil to that many people is a real challenge and nobody growing rapidly apart from guyana. >> and if you think about the base of consumption demand just keeps building where we get cyclicality on several sides of it karen and i have talked about
the oil services seems as if drillers are really well-positioned now and we're starting to seat international drilling gyp the early folks to the party were emp and upstream and folks that improved their balance sheet. where are you look mc. >> it was like a rock concert. today wasn't crowded but talking about a lot of free cash flow. there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the oil trade here but as we were staying earlier some are stretched so, you know, i think their time will come on anticipation of the oil problem almost regardless of multiple. the slb trades ten times to ebitda where have you shell that i was talking about trading almost three times does that mean they won't go up?
i think them i think they will continue to run as this oil run goes on. we're looking for $120 oil by driving season next year, so we're seeing a good run here in oil as we go through winter and into driving season. >> all right so i'm going to ask you for your latest pairs trade, sort of become a fun little thing because at one point you made -- a astute call. >> short mobil, apple song >> that was the first. >> and every said to short apple at a time when nobody thought -- >> it wasn't there nobody from exxon should be long >> their trade what's your latest >> looking, you know, we were saying earlier maybe some of these oils are getting a little stretched with the run that they have had and after today they are attracted again. it's that tight. if you look at the comparison to european oils we've got, you know, half the valuations or less as i mentioned, something like eni, two times cash flow or
and it leads to very, very cheap stocks and everything looks good for oil and gas. they sold a lot of the problems, for example, regarding russian gas and alternative supplies and one thing we're highlighting is they have a new investor relations who will be selling the stock into the u.s. so eni is the long. the whole theme that i've about talking about the last three years is be long oil and short nasdaq so you can chose anything one of the things we shorted at up point was rivian we were talking about earlier. the ticker -- the expectations will fail, i don't think fail but it will be very difficult for these electric vehicles to be sold at a mass scale in the next five to step years compared to where the stocks are priced. >> go be a top analyst.
>> thanks, ceo, jan tor. >> grasso, what do you make of this trade >> paul always has a pretty good paris trade and he's about good on that is a pect of it and he even said some of the individual names seem overextended. exxon mobile, chevron, overextended, oil, wti crude topped out exactly at the october high almost down to the penny i think the whole space will roll over. exxon mobil looked like to had a blow-off top what follows blow-off tops craters in price. >> all right up next, "final trade.
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not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider if cologuard is right for you. s. final trade time julie? >> silk road medical, an innovative company that helps with coronary artery disease it's well-positioned to continue to grow. >> steve >> meta. looks like it bottomed to me i think it trades up 15% quickly. >> karen >> yes, talking about home builders and have they bottomed, and so in that same vain zillow, decent earnings this week and low expectations for next
quarter. >> tim seymour >> i've weave the two segments, tailwind of european currency and tte, total energy france thanks for watching "fast money. watch more again at 5:00 ki of fast, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my jobto entertain, teach, cal me at 800-743-c nnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. when things go awry, they go awry big today was a big day.