tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC November 10, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
story like many. we'll see. this is going to be a long journey. >> overall a remarkable day. obviously the market action is obvious, about 3,900 the dollar we talked about earlier on pace for the worst day since 2015 with all of that let's get to scott wapner and the half. carl, thank you very much. and welcome everybody to the half time report front and center this hour the big jump in stocks after the cpi comes in cooler than expected, major implications obviously for the fed and your money and by the way the wharton professor jeremy siegel will join us in just a few minutes with his reaction and outlook for the markets. the investment committee they're with me as always. let's check stocks you heard carl and the gang talking about we've got a cool 1,000. that's where we were a moment ago. s&p is good for nearly 5% gain
that's where it's been throughout the morning nasdaq look at that 6.25%. the russell is ripping and small caps, the dollar is down so that's a very significant part of the story, too josh brown, go to you first. you told me the dollar, at least, was the whole ball game those were your words yesterday but this is an amazing story today. what are your thoughts on what it means for stocks going forward here >> this is the biggest one-day dollar decline in like seven years and that's why you've got a thousand point down rally, that's why you've got the nasdaq doing what it's doing. and i think the new thing you're going to start hearing where the puck is going you're going to start hearing people say you know what actually i think inflation is still overstated. you know, we've got these lags in the way the shelter component is calculated. everyone can look around them and see homes aren't selling, home prices are falling, rents are now falling.
they're staying a little bit more stable for people resigning existing leases, but for new leases i don't think it's anywhere near, you know, 7 or 7 point something percent. so i actually think we are going to be a little bit calmer. you'll probably see less volatility in bond yields now with each successive inflation report not the cpi but everything that goes into it you're seeing used car prices. you're seeing layoffs all over technology and media so i think we're going to have a little less volatility, but where the puck is going is, yay, things are slowing down and then take a wbeat, wait, things are really slowing down. i hope we get a month to six weeks before we start worrying about how fast things are slowing down so it's a big change, and i don't think we should try to pour cold water on the meaning
of this. i think it's silogically for the market there is this sense we're past peak inflation. still tons of inflation but well past peak inflation and all of the trends are now going in the same direction at once >> so jason snipe, does this still open the door to a significant year end rally -- let's call it over the next six weeks as josh said, assuming there are no shocks in between does it do that? >> yeah, i think obviously these numbers were obviously very positive today and the markets are obviously responding tremendously to the numbers. so what i would say about, you know, just kind of looking ahead, looking to the fed potentially in december 50 basis points starting to be priced in, you know, we saw some dovish commentary for some fed speak today. harker talking about 4.5 and
pausing. 4.5 is significant and, you know, other less hawkish speak from the fed so as i look to the market and i look at what could potentially go from here and josh already alluded to it, home prices are falling off the table. used car prices had come down some, so there has been some deceleration in inflation and i think that will show up in some of the reports, the earning reports as we look into going into next year and then we've got an election, you know, results that wasn't exactly a red wave, but we do have gridlock. there's a couple of catalysts here that can push the market forward definitely in the near-term. >> your research team has been more negative over the last let's call it several months cameron dawson has come over a lot and has articulated that view including yesterday does this make you guys more positive now, and if not how
can't it >> i think in the new term it does slower hikes causes bonds to rally and near-term bullish for equities in addition we may break 3,900 on the s&p that has been a key resistance level. and in order to make a run to the 200-day moving average which is 4,100 we think you need to have some of this positive momentum and of course seasonally this is strong time, and jason already mentioned what happened in the mid-terms. but let's say we get to 4,100. we think at those levels valuation becomes a ceiling, and that's even if earnings are flat next year, which right now earnings are expected to grow. if you look at the s&p on flat earnings at 4,100 and trades at 18.6 times, by the way we're
still in a down trend, okay? we're still in a down trend and earnings are going to be decelerating and if you get an amount of recession, you could see a 10% earnings decline, which means the s&p at those levels trades at 20.5 times. i think we are in a place where we should be having investors take advantage of this move higher it's why we've stayed invested in quality it's not like we're not invested we're cautiously invested, and that's paid huge dividends for us but at that point i think you have to think about repositioning because bonds have become infinitely more attractive from a price standpoint and play an important role in portfolios >> you say investors should quote-unquote take advantage of this move. that says to me investors should sell into this to reposition their portfolios is that how i translate that
>> yes, i don't know if it's this level right now because i think we have some near-term momentum that may allow us to break through to the up side a little bit higher. but you have to be higher than again valuation is a ceiling and if you're a fundamental investor and recognize the fact we're in a down trend and what is going to break that and a fed pivot is going to break that. a fed pause probably doesn't break that in order for us to get to the 4,800 tom liesman has been talking about and he's been right what's been happening in inflation. it's rolling over and it's rolling over faster than most expect, but does that cause a pause or does that cause a pivot? in order to justify valuations 18.5 to 20.5 times you've got to be thinking about where is the relative opportunity to equities and there are parts of credit, there are parts of fixed income
that i think deserve a seat at the table at some point. so when i talk about positioning, it's at the margin, right? you're going to be in equities but maybe you're a little less, you reduce if you have a client that has cash needs as they come into year end, you might come into those levels there's not opportunity to position for that cash >> how do you see this now rob suggests you should take advantage of this, maybe not quite at this very moment. you could have momentum to the up side, but this move is still guilty until proven innocent until you get over, you know, more critical levels that suggests maybe we are closer to what he thinks -- that's rob being, he, is a true pivot not just a pause >> right, and i think we have to take this moment into context. if we look at some of the other factors that have been impacting the market, for example, put action activity, it's just been off the charts this year with over a trillion dollars trading
daily. so we have to take that into consideration when thinking about a day like we're seeing today where there's obviously a lot of unwinding and back trade going on i think we need to see an environment where corporate earnings hang in there and the services sector continues to be relatively strong. if we do see the fed actions have had a lag effect and we start to see a lot of negative impact as a result come flowing through over the next couple of quarters, that's not going to be a good story on the equities side, certainly. and if rob's stereo plays out where we have a double digit earnings decline next year i think there is down side to the market i think we need to stay diversified certainly and again favor high quality companies and look beyond the s&p 500. within the equity market there are plenty of areas where valuation is really quite low relatively speaking. and bonds also are a lot more attractive so we have to take that into
consideration too when thinking about what is the valuation ceiling of this market because there is alternative now where you can own 6% and less risk >> it's bananas. it's best in 2.5 years, more than 6% for tech today we've been talking about, you know, the dollar's impact, obviously rates perhaps more than anything in the impact on the nasdaq bitcoin's up today that's helping i think part of the story, too but what are your thoughts here? >> i think when you're talking about the nasdaq and you're looking at the biggest components you're talking about stocks -- take apple out you're talking stocks down anywhere from 30 to 50%. you're talking about alphabet is a really great example this was going to be the first company in history to go from $2 trillion to $1 trillion in market cap had we not had this recent kick save think about the magnitude of a
publicly traded one company losing a trillion dollars in market cap it's incredible the extent of the losses and i'd said on the air with you yesterday this is worse than the 2000, 2002 bear market now, granted the nasdaq hasn't fallen 90% but i'm talking in terms of market cap losses that's how you get a situation where alphabet goes up 80% in a day with no fundamental news that's how you get amazon up 13%. it's a question of how far these stocks have already fallen they run out of sellers at a certain point, and then you get news like today that i do, again, really feel changes the sentiment landscape. nobody's getting crazy bullish on these stock it's just, all right, i get it, it's inflation it's hard to hire. there are layoffs now. i understand all that. however, here's a stock already cut in half.
maybe it never belonged where it was. let's not use the old market cap as our bench mark, but let's recognize a lot of damage has been done. valuations have corrected substantially, so that is where i think this nasdaq rally comes from we don't have to make it anymore complicated than that. >> on that note, though, josh, does this reverse the narrative now that's been trying to gather steam that these stocks were dead in the water for a bit, that the game had moved to value stocks and that the action was over here for a little bit maybe this reignites a trade that people have loved for years. >> yeah, i want to be very careful about, you know, talking about one day's action and then trying to extrapolate that out into something that it's not look at vanguard growth, vug is the etf up 7% today. that's remarkable but it's one day.
and even the dow, the way the dow opened this morning it's hard to believe given how negative everything's been this year for all the consternation over the market, the economy, inflation, this, that, to have the dow be down less than 10% on the year which is the case right now, is amazing. and the reason why that's possible is because that pivot from growth at any price to growth at a reasonable price all the way down to, okay, you know what i just want to quality names that i have good cash flows that aren't dependent on crypto or whatever like, that -- that being the bigger trend i think is still in force. so i would not look at today and say i want to go crazy on consumer discretionary and semiconductors i don't think that's the right move i think the right move is to recognize there has been a shift in the mentality of investors that will outlast this one particular trading day >> yeah, and jay, i mean i'm not
even thinking about, say, one day. i'm thinking about what the implications of this one day are, right heading into today it was fear, hotter than expected cpi, rates continue to move up, fed maybe 75 in december you could theoretically say all three of those are wiped off the table. all three of those were more negative for tech, and that could continue theoretically to the slide in those stocks. now if you say, well, this changes the game and all three of those are now erased, then maybe that tech trade which has been hammered so hard, now gets reignited if you think that you don't have to worry about 75 in december, rates continuing to move higher and influence the fed. >> no doubt about it, scott. i mean obviously, you know, any
move here that's been a cooler number like we've seen supported to long duration assets. and i think josh makes a good point. the sentiment on tech has really been bad it's been abysmal this year with the nasdaq down almost 30%, and josh already pointed out looking at the dow, you know, below 10 so when i think about a move today which of course the price action has been very solid, you know, in the nasdaq, you have to -- you have to realize and understand that, listen, the fed is going to still remain engaged. yes, i think part of what they're doing is working but we need to see a trend here in the numbers, and i think that's when you can maybe start to look at growth in tech in a more meaningful way than you are today. i think for us we're still relatively defensive there's parts of the market i think still presents some value to you here. and not to abandon growth, but i do think we still need to see a
series of grids if we're heading in the right >> he is professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school. professor, your reaction to this precipitate on the cpi and the subsequent move in stocks. >> the fact this is what we've been talking about i think for the last three months that inflation is much lower than the fed thinks in fact, let me give you an interesting statistic and follows up on what josh was saying and what i have been saying for months -- actually more than a year if you put the actual home and rental price index in, not the one the fed uses which is very lag, the actual one in today's index you get negative core inflation. negative core inflation. i mean take a look at what core inflation on the shelter part was. plus 0.8%. i mean that's ridiculous
it's nowhere near that by the way, that's the only reason why core was positive not only is it zero, it's actually negative. so if you put a negative number in, we're in negative inflation mode if the fed uses the right s statistics not the faulty statistics that they've been using. so, you know, you're saying when should they -- when should they have pivot yesterday. i mean, yeah, they'll probably go now 50 and stop they don't really need to even do that because everything is in the down mode. i told you last june i told you the danger was the fed was getting too -- and now the data is showing yeah, maybe that's true >> so if you had your way what would they do next month in a december meeting >> well, if there's a lot of
data coming through i'm going to have another month of data to come through, but if the trends continue i would stick with where we are i don't think they're going to go to 50 and announce a pause, and that's what happened today i mean, the data today sort of confirmed that negative. if the data continues to go the way it's going and no reason why it isn't, to vote 50 and announce a real pause, and that's why we have a thousand point rally today. >> by the way, we get a cpi print the day before the fed meeting in december. if that continues the trend of what we see today, does that potentially influence a 25 instead of a 50? >> it could be it could be in terms of what other real data comes and we have a slight uptick in jobless claims, if that starts going up, if we see weakness in the november employment report that we're not expecting, that
combined with another good cpi, that might put pressure on them even going less in their december meeting but don't forget the housing component in december will still be plus 0.7, plus 0.8, which is 40% of that index. and it'll continue to push up as the housing market goes down and that's the nature of the statistics that they're using. >> professor, so what does this mean for stocks? obviously, you know, massive move today, relief in many respects, but what happens from here do we have the opportunity now for a significant end of year rally at minimum >> yeah. i think we do because i think the more people that think about the fact that inflation is
basically over and the fed doesn't have to get anywhere near as high i was shocked at powell's last news conference, can feel we have to be more hawkish than last september when all the data was pointing down. he's going to change his tun when it gets to the real world data in their december meeting i think this does make for a good year-end rally. i don't think it's necessarily true the question you asked josh about does this reunite tech i think the nasdaq is still sell frg 23, 24 times next year's earnings while the dollar is selling for 16 or 15 times next year's earnings. i think this is a relief jump because, you know, rates are a big pressure on tech but i still think that people are going to be saying, you know what, i'm going to go with those that have good dividend yields, good earnings. i think that shift will reassert
itself after -- after the next few days >> interesting >> both of them will be up >> and you think that the market can continue to go up without tech leading the way >> yeah, without tech leading the way, absolutely. i think it may max the dow but that means, josh said the value outperforming growth by 10, 15 percentage points. so even if they go equal they'll still be on out-performance of value. value is much more reasonable, and i'm sure some of those growth stocks are -- are good long-term values they've almost rotated in some of the value stocks. but i still think that, you know, that trend that we have seen all year will basically reassert itself. with both going up, probably
value stocks going up more but most important for investors both will be going up the rest of this year >> josh, question for the professor. >> hey, professor. i feel like a lot of times when we're all talking about value versus growth and which one do you want to overweight and which one has to lead the way what we're really saying is industry dispersion and it just so happens that the environment that we're in this year does not favor long duration assets, which technology companies are, and it does favor companies that are the industrials space, the financials have benefitted from rising rates and of course energy stocks have benefitted from the acute energy shortages that are being experienced around the world, electricity shortages, too so if that's really what's going on don't you think investors would be better off being a little more focused on the fundamentals and a little less focused on the guessing game of,
you know, what value or growth what are managers going to be selected center? >> yeah, absolutely. i mean i think you've got to look at fundamentals all the time and i think it's -- you know, it's not -- you're absolutely right, the tech is longer duration assets and that's why the yield drops -- a huge drop we had today it's going to cause a bounce on those. a lot of people are saying even without that are they going to have -- is tech going to have the unbelievable earnings growth that it had in the 5 to 10 years, you know, that preceded this year? is there going to be competition? is there going to be rotation? and i think that that is going to impact those stocks perhaps more than the fact that they are going to get rate relief going forward. while, you know, there's still a chance we can avoid a hard landing i mean if the fed does really pivot in december, 2023 i
don't think is going to be as bad as many fear today >> hey professor, before i let you go you are the professor, of course, so lutwhat's the lesson that we're all learning from crypto i'm wondering what your own thoughts are as you're watching ftx and how you think in a more interconnected market that potentially plays negatively into other asset classes if at all. >> right i don't think it poses a threat. some people say is this a leeman moment if it really goes down. no, because more than a half the value has already gone down and the financial system has survive very, very well so if it goes down another 50, 75%, you know, that's not going to impair values i'll tell you one thing that's really important that i was thinking about back when leeman went under i had money in market
mutual funds, i had money in banks and all the rest and i said to myself thank god the fed is backing those assets. crypto doesn't have that >> we'll make that the last word inflation is basically over, that's the headline that's going to be carried from today which is amazing in and of itself, professor, that you suggest that in a day where the cpi still comes in 7.7 and we'll see. tesla shares higher still on pace for the worst year ever, though big call on wall street today ppte one of the biggest suorrsf the stock. we'll debate it next se promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent
well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.
all right, we're back. we need to talk about tesla today. yes, the stock is up 7.2%. year to date it's down 40.6% that's on pace for the worst year ever. the big news today it was removed the stock from web bush's best idea's list. the firm calling the twitter deal an albatross. we've made it our call of the day. it's dan ives, and brenda you own the stock. very interesting ives says of musk he's essentially tarnished the tesla stock story and is starting to potentially impact the tesla brand with this ongoing twitter train wreck disaster those are strong words from a very significant supporter of
the stock. what does it mean to you if anything >> no doubt that this is a huge distraction with twitter for elon musk. but i'd say if we look beyond elon and what's actually happening at the company, you know, last quarter we had revenue growth more than 55% the company is selling every vehicle they've produced there's still a great story to be had if we look at production costs with the ramp up at the austin and berlin facilities which are especially made ev facilities, and that's different from the fremont facility. so that means they'll ultimately be more profitable i think there's more to be said here about the od lying story of tesla, really first mover within the evspace and have a strong hold within the space. even as we see ongoing competition come in we think they've established a really solid base and are likely to still be able to see great
trends there are too many large cap companies growing revenue up more than 50% in this sort of environment. >> so ives goes incrementally bullish we'll call it. 12 with a buy, four with a hold. we do have some breaking news. steve liesman has some headlines now from cleveland fed president loreta mester. >> the cleveland fed president saying the cpi numbers this morning suggests some easing in inflation, but up side risks remain she is not necessarily all that sanguine about these numbers she says service inflation has shown no signs of slowing, policy needs to be restrictive and remain restrictive for a while. she notes real interest rates, inflation adjusted interest rates are just now moving into restricted territory the larger risk, she says, comes
from tightening too little versus tightening too much gdp growth will be below trend or well below trend. we actually got some information from the san francisco fed president saying the cpi report was good news but one month of data was not a victory scott? >> she said a range of daily to your point 375 to 4 is in her words modestly restrictive did you hear the conversation we just had with professor siegel, steve? because if you didn't to recap that he declared -- these were his exact words. inflation is basically over. powell doesn't have to move as high after today, that the fed is essentially looking at the wrong thing when it's trying to decide where inflation actually is and where it's going. what's your reaction to that >> you know, i'm a big fan of professor siegel however, scott, if he has an alterative aggregate price if dex that he'd like to share
better than the cpi or pce not only i would but many other people would follow. the fed has to follow the cpi price index. and cpe are among the best we have for all the economy i think the professor is absolutely right and he got a little bit of indication when it comes to rents declining or owner equivalent rents coming down at least the pace of increases did decline. but we have to look at all the prices in the economy. we are still way too high on a monthly basis, scott i don't know how you say that inflation is fine at this point. prices are still up 7.7% that is a very, very high number yes, it was under expectations, the three-month annualized is coming down. but prices are still 7.7% higher or 0.4% higher month to month. >> no doubt, which is how i ended with the professor to be out there declaring inflation is basically over when
you did a 7.7 print is in and of itself stunning. the point, though, is that it's going to collapse, you know, moving forward let me ask you this. you get another cpi print literally the day before the next fed decision. if you get a similar read, a similar drop that you did this time is 25 possible instead of 50 >> i think it is possible, and there is some bit. i'm going to give you the bit on that right now while i talk, scott. i think it was 61, 38 on the possibility -- no, that's wrong. it's still up 50 with some possibility that for february reading, scott i think the fed is going to go 50 i think the fed wants to get further into restrictive territory. this comment by mester, and i don't read it just because it's there. i read it because i think it's important that the risk of doing
too little outwaigs the risk of doing too much i think that's the operative phrase for powell and most people on the fomc right now where you want to have a debate is do they want to go to 5 or stop at 4.5. >> maybe they're not going to have to go to 5. and certainly if you get -- >> i think that's a reasonable thing, but i think the fed wants to get to restrictive, wants to extinguish inflation powell has -- when you talk about the history you read, that's the history guiding them. and the history he's talking about is the history of the fed doing a false stop i guess is the way to put it in the '70s when it was raising rates and stop and cut and inflation came back that is the history that is constructive to fed chair powell right now. >> but history is subjective it depends on the amount of restrictiveness that goes into the economy. and the fact of the matter is
they may already be at that level or near. we just don't know yet >> the key number there, scott, to think about is what did you use for your inflation to figure out where restrictive is look, here's the thing we've been operating in a world of neutral or negative real funds rate there's no reason why over a long period of time outside an emergency the funds rate should be negative. the question is how much more positive on top of that it ought to be. i think the fed is looking for a full point to restrictive of just normal being positive when it comes to real rates i think you've got to at 2.5 to whatever your inflation rate is. quick math >> that's steve liesman with the latest headline. a lot of fed speak this week i think coming into the week we had seven or so speakers still ahead we're following the latest developments in the crypto and ftx fallout we'll have the headlines next. plus do not miss mike santoli's
midday word. highlight one big stock winner today that josh brown owns we still have to get to his sell we have a lot ahead. we'll be right back. u.s. venture capital deal value for female founders hit $32 billion in the first three quarters of the year, according to pitch book. female investors account for just 16% of vc decision makers in the u.s just 47% have a majority that's your esg fast fact of the day. ith complicated situations that occur in their lives. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family. for them, it's the first and only time. we have seen this literally thousands of times, in thousands of iterations. ♪ ♪ i am vince lumia, head of field management at morgan stanley.
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welcome back to half time. i'm bertha coombs. here's your cnbc news update this hour. vote counting continues in the key arizona senate race. you can see poll workers in maricopa county, the state's largest county, continuing to tabulate the votes a batch of votes was released late last night and an estimated
400,000 ballots remain outstanding in the county. mark kelly, the democratic candidate for senate says he's confident in his chances and that he is grateful for the around the clock work to count those remaining ballots. ukrainian forces are moving into the area surrounding the kherson after russian troops retreated from the southern city troops are cautious officials could resume a bombing campaign of the city, and it is unclear just how much of the prewar civilian population remains in that city. and twitter is updating its rules around paid verification after a number of accounts began impersonating celebrities. twitter said any accounts created after yesterday won't be able to subscribe for verification some have criticized the new ulbefication system and say it cod used to spread misinformation half time report returns after this
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another buy out option now that binance deal is officially off i spoke to sources overnight close to that due diligence process. one person told me ftx has at least an $8 billion hole on its balance sheet. another source telling me the losses could be significantly larger than that a source who saw those numbers says there were various red flags in there that the cooperate trading firm alameda research also founded by bankman freed was essentially funding ftx. separately two sources telling me now the doj is investigating ftx and the ceo. two issues at hand here, the company potentially misappropriating funds tweeting today about other deal options. he said this morning there are a number of players they're in talks with they're also winding down alameda research and says as he
put it, i f'd up we asked him about that relationship between those two companies in august. here's what he said. what about the relationship between ftx and alameda? i think there's some questions on kind of where those lines are. are there any potential conflict of interest running as many companies as you do in the same space? >> i put a lot of work over the last few years trying to eliminate conflicts of interest there. and one big piece i don't run alameda, i don't work for it none of ftx does, separate stock. and the way we view ftx is as a neutral piece of market infrastructure >> the latest from "the wall street journal," scott, meanwhile ftx used customer funds to fund some of its riskier bets bankman-fried reportedly told investors alameda owes ftx about $10 billion. a lot going on here but we'll bring you all the latest
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we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? all right, we're back on the half senior markets commentator mike santoli from the new york stock exchange with his midday word. and i guess it's relief. >> without a doubt, tension
relief it does show you i don't know it was necessarily all that obvious in the days leading up to the yesterday's cpi number that the street was so clenched up expecting the potential for another hot number clearly yesterday's events where you did have that extra pressure due to the crypto set the scene here the s&p is up about twice as much as it was down yesterday. you and i were talking about that jp morgan note where they did handicap you could get something like this so it does make sense. what i find interesting is it's one of these situations where the market is rushing up right to its next potential task of the s&p up 3,900 we were here early part of this month and it's right in the zone where it's kind of in the midfal of the seven month range is it going to have enough to go beyond this point and capture some of that strength everyone has been talking about for weeks? >> sustainable or not i'm trying
to think what is in the near-term here earn lgz are for all intents and purposes over. you've got the fed meeting in december not for a while, and the next cpi read itself is the day before that. so is that a pocket of opportunity if you want to call it to continue >> it could be now, i look at things like retail earnings next week and things like that i'm sure there's going to be a lot of fed speak, too. you want to see whether there's some pushback on the market's conclusion that we can see the fed's ultimate destination on rates. but i think because sentiment still has this reservoir of doubt that can be burned off in the form of people raising equity exposures, yeah, i think there's an opportunity for that. and then if that doesn't happen, it does sort of tell you something. where you have this sense out there that people are just not going to buy it. they'll have to wait and see for more confirmation on the macro numbers. >> that's a good point i'll see cyou in a few hours that's your last word in overtime up next, double-digit gains for
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before today's pop i just have better things to do with it. a lot of my favorite names had come down and, you know, i think i bought it a little bit early i bought it on the day it collapsed at about 99. i probably should have waited a couple of days i normally do. i would have gotten it maybe low 90s, but it was a small trade. didn't really mean that much and i decided to reallocate elsewhere. >> dutch bros is having a great day today. one of yours talking about that for an awfully long time. >> let's keep in mind, i'm still down in this stock from where i originally bought it i'm still down in the mid-teens, percentage wise. this is like a classic example of just a company that came public at the wrong time, and if this were a normal market environment, i think the stock would be much higher they are absolutely crushing it. they guided higher on revenue. how many companies can you think of that are doing that they had a 30, i think 38 new
stores up in the third quarter five consecutive quarters now of opening at least 30 locations. and when i say stores, you can't walk in. it's all drive-through that's the whole thing was they're on fire. so they reported almost $200 million in sales this quarter. that's 53% ahead of the same quarter last year. also put through a price increase absolutely no problem. no slowdown whatsoever and they're going to finish the year, i think, with 800 stores and they're talking about going up to 4,000 stores over the next few years. all they can do is execute like, this is a company that's been around for decades, by the way. all they can do is what they've always done. keep opening stores. keep making the consumer happy keep delivering. they can't control that growth stocks that are out of favor or the fed is doing whatever it's doing. so i think if you're really an investor, which is what i'm trying to do with this particular company, you just have to accept the fact that you could be right on the
fundamentals and the stock price not reward you for that right away so that's the focus here i'm staying with it. and again, i'm hoping to be in it for the long-term, not a trade. >> speaking of trade, we'll do final trades, next i promise - as an independent advisor - to put the financial well-being of you
and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.
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positioning, obvious reaction to the cpi. what he thinks the fed should do coming up. talk about his twitter plate, too, ahead of the musk deal. what he said he was going to do if musk didn't come in and buy that company that was very interesting. we'll get into more detail there. i hope you'll all join me there. dan greenhouse, victoria green, kevin simpson coming up as well. that's in three hours' time. i should remind you, too, tomorrow, veterans day, anthony noto of sofi joining us once again. we'll talk to him tomorrow about the markets, too, payment space, and everything that needs to be discussed with him i look forward to that brandon, why don't you start us out. >> with adadobe. this is a tech name that's really down and out valuations really depressed versus historically, but this management team has an excellent track record of making value ad acquisitions that really add to total addressable market >> rod >> home depot. we own it, i buy it in the next week's earnings, great breakout
on an absolute and relative basis. a best in class franchise. reasonable valuation housing market is a challenge, but they're a best in class management team. >> jason sunsnipe, quick? >> i like tjx here super lean cost structure and the ability -- >> just a name, josh i've got to go >> nee, next hour energy >> thanks, guys. see you in overtime. "the exchange" is now. >> hello, everybody. i am brian sullivan in once again for kelly evans. a key piece of data suggesting the fed may start to back off the fed rate hike gas pedal. we'll take a look at where we could go from here and how to position now plus, crypto chaos ftx reportedly on the brink, and its founder facing all kinds of questions. it is hitting the entire crypto world, but is the worst now behind us? or maybe still to
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