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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 10, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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the other "p" word was premature, maybe this changes the fed's plans. all right. well will leave it there an hand it over to "closing bell," to take it here 1100 points higher thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. off to the races, stocks surging. is this the moment to reposition your portfolio this is a make-or-break hour for your money take a look at where we stand, up more 1,000 points, almost 5% on the s&p 500, nats take up more than 6% it's a broad rally, quite strong >> announcer: is the worst-performing sector. the best performers, no surprise, technology
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we've got tech stocks up 7%, consumers discretionary up 7% as well real estate, communication services, and materials coming up this hour, brian deese joins us, first on cnbc, to discuss the weaker than expected cpi number, and whether inflation is peaking here. and holly name kroft is it a game changer mike santoli is here it's a wild reaction. >> actually, sara. it does tole you how tight will you wound this market was. we were spring-loaded for a bit of relief.
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this time one of the downside surprise which fit into the theme that maybe the soft landing is not completely a remote possibility too far to make that leap right now, but it takes the s&p back to that level there from late september. that was right before the september fed meeting, not the november, but the september one, that was the previous 75 basis-point rate hike, so sort of pulling the market out of the moment in the fall, there seemed no daylight. is the bigger one is probably like 41. we got this to the highs of the day, we're back to them right now. it's a pop and glide side waist. look at market-based expectations it's actually relatively tame. it has curved lower. that looks like a decent top
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best guess, inflation protection in the market, but it shows you that the market believes the fed will get there either the hard or easy way. you see this, before the pandemic, we were undershooting inflation. the fed ranted it higher maybe not this way, but it's getting there. look at some of the moves in the bond market. -- going higher.
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on what to do nest holly newman kroft holly, you have not really been a fan of stocks in the past few times we have talked, waiting for softer inflation to materialize. so is it -- does this change your mind? >> i wish i could say yes, but i don't think so today is a great day, but inflation is still 7.7%, which is a very high number. we're trending down, but it will take a much bigger move before the fed takes it foot totally off the -- >> isn't that the market's job, to anticipate when that is going to happen? >> it's going to come first in the market before it does with the fed. we think the market and history proves that the market will be about six months ahead of the economy, but like i said last time i was here with you, vogue
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tilt is really the theme of 2022, i think that continues today. a bit of good news has a great impact on the market, but we don't think this is the end. >> so sitting out stock, what about bonds? you were starting to dip your toe into that. so you're now atted? >> we talked about short-duration munis the notable change we're making is the switch from fleeting rate bonds to fixed-rate high yields. it's yielding over 9%. we don't see an increased rate of default, which you would typically see in a slowing growth environment. >> so you think high yield is due for a rally here does that mean we have seen a peak
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>> i think the market is pricing in still a couple rate hikes, and then we think the rate hikes will stop, the fed will take a breath, the market will start to recover, and we can all look forward to much lower inflation. >> what about on the economy what do you expect there and what do you think is price in there even if inflation is start to go come down here, a lot has been done. >> while we expect inflation to come down meaningfully in the first half of this year, we still expect it to be higher than average by the end of 2023. so long-term averages are around 2, 2.25%, we do not expect there to see there by the end of nest year, what is important to remember is, while a slow growth economy is scary, and it might sound scary to the investor, it's the intention of what the fed has been doing all year.
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a slowing economy is masses going to bring inflation down and ultimately get the market to recover and bring us out of this >> right the question is, how heart of a landing it is. a report on twitter says this increases the chance of a soft landing. hopefully. it's not impossible. we talked on previous shows about whether we're in a recession or not all we can hope for is to be really smart about navigating the choppy markets we are expecting things to turn around over the summer we still have a few unknowns in the market will it be a severe winter in europe and is gas shortage an issue we would like clarity on the china covid policy we expect toward the end of next year we'll see things turn. what about the midterm
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elections? >> i don't think the elections had much impact on the market. the market likes a divided government, so that there's not much change. a surprise that the democrats rally, but not much change in the market outlook. >> you have also talked about commodity exposure in the past, what is interesting is now with this positive reaction to cpi report, the commodities rise and the financial conditions soften. is that still a good place to be >> yeah, because it's still not coming down dramatically we're not exiting our commodity exposure >> particularly oil? do you still like oil in up over half a percent. >> we're still maintains a -- we don't -- >> what about crypto >> what about crypto >> do you have questions from your clients >> only theory receipt cal questions.
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we have zero exposure in our books. our clients have worked really hard for their money our job is responsible preservation and growth of their capital. we didn't have any cryptoexposure it created a lot of billionaires and quickly wiped them out. >> yeah, no kidding. i think the question today is whether there's -- i mean, today -- in the last few days, it's whether there's any real systemic pressure on the stock market because of this blowup happening in crypto-land. >> crypto has been so volatile and hurt, i don't think it's going to have such a huge negative impact. >> ultimately what would it take to change your mind? continued softer inflation rates? >> continued, more of a significant move we'd like to see inflation come down more. we would like to see the fed indicate they're going to stop raising rates. we stand ready to pivot.
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equities have been killed. this is the worst year for a 60/40 portfolio in almost a century. we are ready to go back into the equity markets. >> where would you go first? >> you know, we're going to continue to be overweight to value, but we've been underweight every equity class this year. so we're ready to go back in as soon as the indications in the market suggest it's time >> value in the u.s. some may say more value abroad >> yeah, international and emerges market have disproportionately punished, but not yet. thank you very much for joining me a huge market day, much more than 1100 points on the dow. in fact, i'm told that i have another moment with you. >> all right >> so, holly, in terms of looking at some of correlations, the ten-year yield is low,s the
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dollar is now down 2%. these are pressure points that have weighed on the market. >> the other thing people are day, when the ten-year comes down more than 4% it's a bit of a trigger. that could be boosting today's market. >> you're saying it's a classic bear market type of behavior >> this is the volatility of 2022 that's what we're seeing, and we will continue to see it through the end of the year, i expect. >> i thank you now, holly newman kroft. the nasdaq is a big winner today, rallying more than 6% kristina partsinevelos is here with a look at the big movers at the nasdaq. >> what a day today. i guess you could say we're breathing a sigh of relief after the slightly cooler than expected report. you saw tech skyrocket many cap names are some of the biggest, i guess, movers, part
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of the reason we're seeing the nasdaq on a weighted point swing. so that would be apple, microsoft, all of those names, amazon is up 11% just moments ago. it's not just megacap. semiconductors some of the big turnaround some has to do with tsmc did say in october they saw sales climb 56%, on is a night market. asml has a investor day tomorrow they increased their 2025 forecast, so that's climbed higher today, along with the entire sector, all stocks climbing much, much higher, but if we want to pinpoint some red, biotech wasn't doing as well names like seag gen, they did a new ceo, but across the board we
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are seeing strength. cathie wood's etf is climbing. zoom, peloton climbing higher, over 13% the last i checked. so a lot of names right here, and a turnaround for the chip tector as well as clouds -- what, 20 seconds 30 seconds that's a lot >> some of those movers? there are up, but that's again where that has beened hardest hit on these rising rates. >> if you look at a five-day base, ark what relatively flat so we put it in perspective, like mike santoli talked about, coming back to the same aplays to these etfs and stocks.
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>> and the arc insew investigation fund, thank you. kristina partsinevelos >> thank you. crypto is rallying today new clarity, the division saying that trading may by halted in a few days, advising clients to close do you the positions they want to close. we heard from voices of frustration. >> it's unbelievably frustrating that we have a situation that looks like theranos. i kept asking myself, where is he getting all these money >> ultimately we're moving from the entrepreneurial stage, where this was a wild west offshore, where anything goes, to an institutional digital asset stage, where the big players like bank of america and phi
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dealt, blackrock, goldman sachs, and jpmorgans will enter this space, and we're all going to grow up and the world will benefit from that. >> just a few minutes ago we heard from coinbase's ceo brian armstrong. >> dodds this as a possibility of being salvaged? >> from where i'm sitting, it seems unlikely i don't think why investors would put money in, given the allegations, so it's surprising they're still pursuing that line, but without being inside the firm, i couldn't say exactly what is going on there. >> ample strong talking about ftx in particular. joining us is peter smith. ranked fifth on this list this year. where do you think it's going? >> it's going to result in two trends, one a trend toward
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regulated institutions, so on-shore players like ourselves and coinbase secondly, you'll see people shift towards storing their crypto on their own private keys we have about 85 million signups that are doing that today. i think that trend will accelerate the ultimate reality and the coolest part of crypto is that you can store your funds on your own private key, where you have no counter-party exposure. it's been our mission to enal that in the last decade. >> you're explaining this is beneficial because of why? what happened with ftx and its own token? >> i think what happened with ftx is a tragedy, and a total failure of governance. ftx didn't have a board, no cfo, no chief compliance officer. it's confusing to me how
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investors could back that company. the net result is people are going to swing back to the original ethos of crypto, which is holding their own funds themselves crypto is the only asset that you can custody yourself i think we'll increasingly see a move back to that model. >> but this isn't just one of these, you know, companies that a lot of folks haven't heard of, having liquidity problems. this is one of the biggest, arguably one of the most successful seemingly one of the most high-profile exchanges, peter. it sort of casts doubt on the entire system. >> they are high profile with the press as well as silicon valley investors, but they were not a market leader. they had 6 million total account registrations, you know, a couple hundred,000 monthly
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active users why they had a lot of hype and press, and they were -- you know, silicon valley, the press, they weren't a key part of the ecosystem. one of the things we'll have to ask ourselves is why weren't more questions asked we were not an ftx investor or a partner, but to us it was always confusing. where was all this money coming from why were investors so excited about this company why wasn't there a board way wasn't there licenses? >> they had an advisory board, didn't they? >> an advisory board is -- >> and an ftc commissioner advising. >> what ultimately matters is the governance of a company, who is sitting on that board, who is responsible for the conduct of that company their entire board was, you know, the two cofounders and an employee ultimately you and the others --
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sequoia has marked $214 million stake to zero. you're a venture-backed company as well. isn't it going to be impossible to get money after this? >> i don't think so. i think that investors will increasingly focus on things like good corporate governance, on things like, do you have a board? do you have a proper corporate structure? and i think that's largely going to be a net positive for the space. like, this was very much a silicon valley momentum play, and we've seen that very clearly not work out >> well, peter, we appreciate you joining us with the perspective. from let's show you what's happening with this rally. 40 minutes left of trade we're going strong dow is up more than 1100 points, s&p surging 5%, every sector higher, strongly higher.
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technology and consumer discretionary each up 7%, nasdaq up almost 7% quite a day. small caps also joining the party, up almost 6%. up next, brian deese on whether or not inflation is starting to cool, and whether a soft landing for the economy is constituent on the horizon check out some of today's top searched tickers on tesla, which is having a nice comeback, amazon with news of its own, sends shares up 12% wel rhtac 'lbeig bk.
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the news of the day, inflation.
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the consumer price own detection coming in cooler than expected, showing prices rising 0.4% in october versus 0.6%, which was what was expected. joining us is the national economic economic council director brian deese. taking from the market, maybe the fed won't have to do much more tight ying with inflation do you agree >> certainly this was a welcome piece of news. it does present progress we saw that both on headline and core inflation, a deceleration month over month when you look under the hood, you saw some important areas like ownership-occupied rent, which is an area that takes more time for price transition mechanism to start to move through. you saw some deceleration in inflation in that context as
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well for things that matter to american households, i think the deceleration inflation in food, food at home, at the grocery store, is a welcome indication at the same time, the rate of inflation is too high. we have to stay at this and stay focused on bringing prices down. that's what you heard from the president. that had continue to go our principal focus. wee god reading of tracking 4% gdp, which could bring up inflation again.
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>> it's welcome we're seeing some deceleration, and at the same time we have to keep at this and stay focused on waiting to see those price declines persist over time. certainly there can be unexpected setbacks, bumps in the road, and even the months where we see more welcome data, you never want to over-index too much on any individual one month of data, so we'll try to keep working in the aggregate if you look across the economy, you are seeing some important signs of the resilience of the economic recovery in the labor market while we're also seer some reduction in price pressures as well. that's the dynamic we want to see continue so that's what we want to see, and certainly this
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data given us more confidence that's what we'll see going forward. >> but it sounds like you're note willing to say we peaked. >> i'm willing to say exactly what we're seeing, moderation and deceleration in some of these numbers, in some areas that are good indications of may come as well the future is uncertainly. we face a complicated global environment, both the headline and the core, we're going to stay focused on what we can control. the good news is some of the things we're seeing, health care, health insurance o. prescription drug prices on energy price, policies we have already enacted will start to take effect. >> a lot of people say, look, maybe the path to 4% on inflation may be easier. the base effect, you know, comps
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from last year, you've got the supply chain thawing and easing, but what about down to 2%. how difficult will that be when will it scum? >> look, i will leave the discussion about the monetary targets to the purview of the fed. what i will say is, for typical american households and consumer, we want to see a reduction in inflation, and we want to see that in ways that will help them in their daily lives without having to give up the extraordinary and historic gains we have made we have extraordinary res resilience, a job market producing important economic ben benefits, these are strengths that the united states has unique strengths in a complicated global environment we want to see this persist. and importantly, while i can't
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predict the future, what i can tell you, thus the executive branch are going to provide additional price redecks in important areas. so that's positive, and we'll have to keep our head down and keep making progress >> i know we heard from the president yesterday. it does look like the gop will take the house i'm wondering how you are planning or whether you are bracing for a debt default they're already threatening to use the debt cell to try to cut federal spending, potential social security and medicare what is that going to look like? >> well, we don't know the full outcome of the election of the house or senate, so we'll wait on that front. first, you heard from the president very clearly, that he's prepared to work with republicans and democrats on any constructive idea to try to move
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the country forward, and where he is not going to be compromises is what would make aniflation worse those are things that he is not going to do. but you have also heard from him consistently, the full faith and credit of the united states government is not something that anybody should be playing politics with, anyone should be holding hostage. we need to demonstrate to the markets and the world that we're a country that makes good on the commitments that congress that is already enacted that's what we expect congress will do, as they have consistently under prior administrations, republican and democrat >> brian deese, thank you so much we appreciate it. >> thank you. the gains, more than 1100 points higher on the dow
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this is our best days for stocks since 2020 it is paying the benefit today, up more than 6.8% at the moment. mike santoli is joining me at the new york stock exchange since 1950, the s&p 500 has posted a total return of 13% on average over the 12 months following the last 13 inflation peaks. is that what we're about to be in >> listen, high inflation that is declining is the most bullish setup for markets, almost no level from where it's declining from the market is trying -- it doesn't want to set aseed the possible we'll see inflation come down somewhat more quickly than feared, and that the fed can go slower, and the economy
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doesn't have to necessarily be pinched that much more now, a lot of things have to go right, but you do have a situation where the market was already being pretty resilient in the last several weeks, not buckling to new lows, tried to differentiate between the companies really disappointing on earnings and those withstanding it okay that has led us to this point, we get through the election, through the cpi number, and now you can maybe have a bit of room to operate where you have stronger seasonal effects. that is the bull kay the bear case is three-month treasury yield is still above, housing almost at a standstill relative to a year ago so there's going to be some swear and tear on parts of this economy. the question is how much is already discounted, and, you
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know, you've got yearend performance dynamics >> there's another potential bearish point to consider. you have a huge rally this, and the market has been resilient lately are financial conditions strong enough to bring down the demand side that the fed is trying to fight. >> supply sigh, that's good, that we're seeing it alleviate somehow, but on the demand side, that tricky move to 2% could be hard, especially if financial conditions start to ease up? >> it really rests in the services spending i've seen some numbers, but it should actually happen that services come off the boil a bit we don't know.
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2%, the target inflation rate, that's out in the distance somewhere. we're much more talking about getting less bad for a while, with a market already down 22% >> the s&p is down 35% scott miner, by the way, tweeting -- room to run. 4100 target for the s&p 500. >> everyone is looking for 4100. >> first time in a while mike, stay close. let's bring in the ceo of financial advisory at la zar. how much stock do you put into this inflation number? >> we've been waiting for a month.
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i would say we want to see two more months of disinflationary numbers showing up, but this was definitely a good moment, which is to say that inflationary pressure easing swan, and coming back to the point that we have a lot of the impact of month tar policy tightening yet to hit the economy, but definitely an encouraging sign >> and you have been worried about the fed and particularly ecb overdoing it, when it comes to tightening policy does a number like this today make you feel a bit better >> well, it depends on what the fed does from here, of course, but the point behind that concern before was most of the impact of when the fed tightens,
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we haven't seen yet. that's coming in 2023. the point is, if in flation is coming down anything, you'll be walloped with the monetary policy when you don't really need it. >> so that's where it's going next what do you make of the mid terms when your clients call you? what are your big takeaways that you tell them? >> well, first, the rejection of extremism is really encouraging for, you know, just the governance of the country, but i also think those democrats who are rejoicing need to just take a pause for a moment and realize next year is going to be challenging. at the top of my concern list is what you mentioned with brian deese involving the debt limit i think what should happen at
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this point is the most consequential lame-duck session of congress since at least 1974, if not before, in which you tackle the debt limit, tackle funding for ukraine and other things -- but those are the two top priorities -- if you don't do it now, it could prove to be difficult to do in 2023, and just create unnecessary uncertainty. i would highlight the imperative on the debt limit in particular, because it's not only that our politics are somewhat more radical than past times when we've managed to land the plane, albeit in a bumpy way, but the liquidity in the market is materially lower you just don't want to be playing with matches around that potential fire that would be a bad idea, and better to do it later this year. >> what does all of this mean for the business that you guys
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she? i think there's a lot of pent-up demands that the coast is clear, in terms of interest rate increases. in lots of different areas we just launched a new infrastructure here, and we were pleased that secretary raimondo joined us for part of that in that area you see a huge amount of pent-up demand that reflects all of the infrastructure investment we haven't made in semiconductors, you know, across the board, in broadband and so on. that's one of the many examples of the pent-up demand phenomenon that you mentioned. >> finally, peter, i'm curious what you think about potential
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contagion, ripple effects from the bitcoin latest blowup disaster >> we still don't know if fundamentally this is a divide between a solvency and liquid problem, but i think what we do know issing this goods to lead to a much more aggressive regulatory stance on the area. in my opinion, the regulators have been waiting too long to get more attentive to this particular arena, and i think what we're seeing is going to significantly change that. peet are orszag, thank you >> i appreciate it thank you. we mentioned the tact call new target, scott wapner will be talking to guggenheim next hour
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in "overtime." scott also has carl icahn. that's a can't-miss hour. try roesch yields tumbling, the ten-year take a look, now below 3.9. does this move make sense? how do you read it >> well, i think it does make sense, to the extent we still have wage inflation, but, look, sara, i think the key emergency here today is that fed policy doesn't have to drive the u.s. economy over a cliff in order to get inflation under control. it does suggest that, whether it's 5% or 5.25%, or maybe even
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4.75% could be the terminal policy rate. yields keep going up, maybe if inflation is peaking, yields may not perpetually go up. so what is the move here would you buy bonds? you think they with go farther >> i think scaling into a fixed income right now is the right thing to do. we've been saying that for the past month or so, so essentially what we would argue is you would want roughly a three-year duration we would some at the very front end. the front end is somewhat
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attractive these days, you know, thinking they'll gore to stop somewhere closer -- and i think the credit way up 5.5%, some even higher than 6%. don't you think the fed is going to be very careful everyone in terms of switch ing they were wrong and late on inflation. is that going to rattle markets, or can the market look past that >> that's why i'm not pointing mice fists on the table. the fed has been wrong before.
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we if the 4.75% terminal then that's going to weigh on fixed-income markets like anything else, timing your interest points makes some sentence it sounded crazy, because yields kept going higher, but the point is i think the 4% to 4.125% area represents value at this current juncture maybe we'll get a backup, but it's an opportunity to start building positions in fixed income, which i think people have been under weight, unfortunately, for right now goo final question do you think 9 dollar has peaked down more than 3% for the month
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of november, that's a huge move. obviously it's still up a lot for the year, but it shows you how many people, for one, were piled on to one side of that bet. how do you know that has peaked? >> i think a lot of the dollar move has been linked to the fed policy the fact that fed policy is showing more signs than probably stocks, stocks around probably 5% may take some of the wind out of the sails for the dollar. but we have to remember things going on in europe aren't necessarily all that positive, either, but it does probably strengthen the euro at the expense of the delay i would say we can argue we're settles into a raiment now we're going to take you
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break free plus deirdre bosa here on amazon's double-digit move higher frank holland -- we're going to kick it off broad, more than the 1100-point surge microsoft, goldman sachs, salesforce, exactly the places that have been hit hard on fear of rising rates going the other way. the question is, you know, biggest rallies come in a bear market. >> that's very true. you had heavily shorted tech stocks today are flying double-digit percentages that being said, the magnitude is not the most comfortable
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situation. when you see the two-year note yield drop a third of a percent in a day, that's not your normal market processing. when you see the u.s. dollar and it's down 2% in a day, that's not what you typically would see. we know that these are very tightly wound markets. we've been doing with a lot of stuff. this is what happens when you have this focus concentrated on one data point, and where the downside price is, in terms of market outcomes have been more prominent. i get how this all fits. ed bond market is closed tomorrow >> there's a crowd here and welcoming the department of the navy in celebration of veterans day tomorrow mike, the bull case is clear the fed won't have to do as much maybe we'll see a chance at a soft landing, because the commit
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has held up well the bear case is 2023 could be rougher. this is a seasonally strong period but next year we could be looking at recession and more rate hikes. >> the bear case is you also see a lag effect of rate hikes, not just on inflation, right the bull case has been the fed is going to basically start to downship, take their time in getting raids, because we recognize that rate hikes operate with a lag that also means there might be shoes to drop. 23023 edges forecast have been coming down, still showing growth they're definitely declining, so, therefore, it becomes a valuation issue at a certain moment as well >> someone on twitter wants to know what the volumes look like. >> very lopsided to the up side. i wouldn't say it's overly
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heavy, but i wouldn't worry about that tapestry beating on sales and earnings, a bit lower for the full-year forecast china also was a drag, and is an important market for coach china, on the other hand was a bright spot for ralph lauren the ceo telling me sales grew 30% in china, despite 35% of the stores being closed there. ralph lauren bead on quarterly earnings and revenue they also told me the higher inventory number reflects higher sales, earlier relates and more visits and on the guidance which some of the analysts were a little cau cautious.
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it certainly helps you're seeing more sportcoats instead of hoodies, to pretty strong read. >> i would say reassure across the board. a very modest valuation. tapestry as well even cheaper, almost all the branded apparel looks -- getting high convict in owning this at this level, if you believe that the consumer in 2023 will be slightly less flush that he or she has been this year i think that's been the tough fix. the consumer discretionary, up more than 7.5%
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these are wild moves estee, of course, the laters we'll hit in a moment up 16% carnival cruises, it's easy to see what is working today. definitely one day will not turn the tide it is helpful. of course, amazon and tess that punched way above their rate in the sector themselves. it's kind of the last shall be first kind of market >> that would be technology. let's hit the amazon story it's a huge winner
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and others money-losing businesses deirdre bosa joins us, this follows the trend of cost-cutting moves this week also, they're telling so this trend continues, the journal reporting that it's looking at the alexa unit it's all those devices like the echos, echo shows, fire tv, by the journal records in some years, it lost so what else cook on the table aws's cloud business as well as advertising, those are the profit engines but do remember
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that it has been trying to get, with little success, at least if you look at the market share that it and whole foods has been able to get. also spending a lot of money on prime video content, like the lord of the rings series, and nfl football >> i do wonder while the market is cheering and cost-cutting, when the focus turns to growth again inches we are dealing
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withsome somebody like meta, where their profit margins are seen as being totally under their control. they beefed up so much, that it's a rationalization moment. i don't think we're talking about that with too much growth and chasing bodies in a scarce labor market deirdre, it's also been hid harder, with the apple lately in the setoff it was such a covid winner, to building up the logistics arms, in terms of warehouses and capacity. that turned out to be too much amazon has sort of had to walk
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that back. with the headwinds like the other big tech companies it has been hit hard where does it go now we know what that marked is looking like now, it's still going to feel the effects of that, but today, certainly, a wild day for amazon. just short of the trillion dollar market, sara. a lot of these technologies and cloud stocks, look at the cloud stock, the wcld etf, cut more than 12%, best single day ever salesforce, and don'test, crowd does that trike, all surging.
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>> here's the week-to-day perform yanks of the ten-year, and you see a wishbone pattern as soon as the rates decline after the cpi report, you see the cloud enterprise names spiked getting more room to rally let's look at snowflake and data dog. snowflake trading, you request see the move to the up side. and then data dog, another company with a high valuation name that's basically more than twice what the nasdaq is trading at. it's also spikes, their nair it -- the question is, just about how the rates impact them and impact their future growth
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they say if the rates are going to decline, and also the dollar, but the dallas down more than 2% is a, we're -- if we see another swing in interest rates, we can expect the same stocks are going to decline. >> dollar's weakest day, thank you, john, just told me in ten years. this is not an everyday move thank you very much, frank. we're looking at session highs into the close it's hard to find losers in the session. we have one in the dow, mcdonald's, a few in the s&p, either related to healthcare or consumers. >> and shuns, which is a strong area and has held up well. it's pretty much across the board.
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so we're just kind of buying the index in a very aggressive way letting us pay out we're -- getting up above 39.50. that gets into the upper end of this range we've been in this range, tracing it all the way back, and now we've climbed back into the top half of it >> so you're saying these moves are jarring in a bad way >> it says real demand, just hopefully it locks into a bit more of an orderly pace, and not just a rush for everything
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what are you seeing in benches? which i imagine are over overwhelmingly positive. however, we've had a bunch of these days, where 90% of the volume has been to the up side it's roughly in that zone the not quite as strong as you might expect where you have a rare 5.5% gain in the s&p 500 take a look at the home builders ease etf, relative to the long-term treasury etf that's been a lockstep move. it's been a rate story notice the home builders did not make new lows below the june level. nobody can quite figure that out. yes, they're cheap, but people expect there to be a crunch in the home building market that they are not responding to this rate move. volatility index down almost three points today, sort of confirming what we're seeing in the overall market on the other hand, 5% daily
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moves in the index are only going to allow the investment. x to go down so much i have to have a nice downtrend, the real by rallies have topped out when the vix has gotten down >> we may have had a few bill rallies, but not like today. nasdaq since april and may 2020. that was in the middle of the pandemic when we were having some wild swings back then a celebration clearly of a meaningful decline, going up the dollar is tanking, treasury yields are sinking, all leading to a big surge in stocks the nasdaq, up 7.4%, an unbelievable rise, up 12% now to the dow. it looks like we're going to close high today
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[ inaudible [ bell ringing ] sara, thank you very much. welcome to "overtime." the bells were just getting started with a very big program today. coming up a bit later, scott minerd will join me on whether this inflation report today mean a massive rally can keep going that is, of course, our talk of the tape so is it a game changer for your money and this market? let's ask the legendary investor carl icahn he joint me in a cnbc exclusive interview. great to see you today >> good to see you


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