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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 14, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> the index is somewhat captive to it but less so than it was. it's slightly less as a weight in the overall s&p, but i don't think it's really about the index getting moving that much as much as it is the typical stock has weathered things better. >> the nasdaq down a little more than 1%. >> microsoft down. >> see you tomorrow. mike santoli with his last word. that's mine. "fast money" begins now. right now, countdown to walmart's earnings the consumer and the overall economy. plus new mojo for meta following a post earnings pounding the stock rebounding 20% in the last week. later, breaking down president biden's one-on-one with china's president xi. a crowning achievement for netflix. where option traders think the stock is headed next of the and the latest on the collapse of ftx and its former ceo, sam
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bankman-fried. we're live at the nasdaq market site we start off with a countdown to big retail earnings. walmart kicking things off tomorrow morning with investors keyed in on what the company has to say about inflation, inventory and its outlook. when walmart warned about q2 results in late july, the stock fell 7% the next day the s&p dropped more than a percent. after missing expectations for the first quarter, walmart fell three days in a row losing 20% in that period the s&p 500 was down 3 markets heading into the report on a down note the dow dropped more than 210 points the nasdaq falling more than a percent. walmart and home depot were the worst performers on the dow today. so what should we expect from tomorrow's results and what will the broader market implications be karen, what do you say >> yeah. so i think that walmart won't be that bad i think they're actually -- they
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have sort of managed to be in the managing expectations business, i think. they had this disastrous quarter. we had bill simon talking about apocalyptic inventory. and then walmart actually ended up doing a little better than they had sort of guided lower, down 11 to 13% and it came in down 9 to 11, earnings were a little better. i'm not quite sure we saw that big shift. gasoline was really important to them and dprgroceries. gasoline has come in somewhat so the top line might be down a little but i think they're managing expectations in a decent way it is more expensive than target, which announces the next day. i have nor target than i do walmart. >> we learn a lot about the consumer and consumer behaviors. the notion last quarter, that they are seeing a wealthier individual, wealthier household shopping there there's tradedowns happening all these nuances as we are coming to grips with the fed's rate hikes here.
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>> well, we were seeing and hearing from them a couple of things general merchandise was also under pressure that was hurting target more than walmart because also they have higher margin and target frankly is target. so you got to a place where we heard different things i would make an argument that what we heard from them on q1 earnings in may and what they said again in july, it was more about margins. we weren't hearing about a consumer that was necessarily under the same kind of pressure. i think we're listening for that now. i expect while i think the consumer runs into headwinds as we get into next year, what they want to talk about may be something very different i think right now going into the holiday seasons, i think we've gotten some updaetes and guy probably wants to hear the countdown of how many days until christmas so i'll let you do that but we have a case where you're expecting holiday sales, 6.8%. it's supposed to be a great christmas. so right now it's about, first of all, clean inventory for the third quarter. i think they're going to give you that
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i think they're going to be better than target i think it's really more what they say about the health of the consumer before it was the health of their own business. >> i've got to tell you, the last hour of the day today felt like somebody knows something about something, okay? i'm just saying to see that sort of reversal. the market felt a little squishy this morning after we had these massive two days, thursday and friday i think the continuation of friday was really important. you would have said to yourself, okay, the fact that we were up or down 25 basis points, that felt great and then to have the market gain steam and then lose it all at the end of the day, i don't know how that happens if people don't think something is coming out tomorrow so again, you say that walmart is going to be fine. inventory is going to be this, holiday season is going to be this i don't know if you think about it, so to me i think this is a really important week think about home depot and walmart and some of the other retail earnings. if you look at that consumer confidence number. david rosenberg tweeted this out this morning we had a sub 55.
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he said on average during recessions, the consumer confidence university of michigan is about 71 during expansions it's about 88. it was 55. woe don't even have a recession right now. so again, i think this could be actually the most important week of this cycle that we are in right now as people are trying to figure out whether that was a v bottom or it was just a bear market rally. >> rosie does great work, but isn't that 55 when the market rallied 5% >> because the sentiment was so bad. no, i get it. >> i think that's the story. and i guess i look at what happened today as we went into the close as a function of i don't think there's much walmart can tell us that we don't already know again, we are so worried about margins because it was so much of a supply chain overshoot. we went from you couldn't get anything to now it's not just walmart, it's every other retailer in the world. i think that's the tell, but we'll see. >> guy, do you agree with tim, that walmart won't tell us anything we don't know already
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>> you know, the last couple of quarters they have told us a lot we didn't know so maybe to karen's point they have figured out how to manage and guide and lower expectations and speak to wall street. in terms of walmart, what i'll say is this. at 21 times, it's expensive to the broader market, cheap to itself historically. but if you look at the levels, remember, this was a stock making an all-time high in april, traded north of 160 obviously plummeted down to 117. this 138 level that we're trading at now is to the penny a 50% retracement of that entire move so really the question is are they going to be able to maintain margins in this environment. to dan's point, i don't know if somebody got a whiff of ppi tomorrow but the last hour or so felt like somebody did know something. i don't know if it's walmart, ppi or some amalgamation but walmart has to prove itself having bounced from that 117 level pretty significantly the last month or so.
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>> we have to hear a workdown in terms of the apocalyptic inventory. theoretically holidays should be decent does walmart give forward year guidance because that's where they could be in the business of managing expectations to the point of lowering expectations. >> forward year guidance i don't recall if they give -- i'm not sure you know what i think of giving forward guidance. >> it's a terrible idea. >> it's a terrible idea. things are really mucked up right now and it's hard to see anything clearly so why would you box yourself into forward guidance when you can't possibly know? but i do think they had those giant writedowns as you said, that inventory number was enormous i think they kind of -- i hope they kitchen sinked it and actually they did come out with better earnings one time in between the kitchen sink but i think also home depot is important to get a sense of this housing market how damaged is the housing market, and is there still the remodel market is that consumer still there
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is inflation still problematic and i bet they're also pushing pack on their -- walmart and home depot both probably pushing back on their suppliers on price. >> yeah. and no one can push harder than walmart can. they have the most leverage of anybody out there but you're right on home depot. and their pro business is now 50% of sales that's been part of why it's done so well even during a difficult time and so the view is they can probably get through some of this period. but at some point, and i've said home depot even in a world where the velocity of housing sales go to almost nothing, it will do very well because people are staying in their homes and still have equity and ready to spend and are making money at some point you're going to see a drain on savings and housing markets aren't getting better any time soon so home depot will be minus 2 or 3% same-store sales next year.
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walmart will probably be up 3 or 4. >> in terms of trades, we're seeing people draw down on their savings. so we're seeing that impact in terms of inflation and people having to deal with that. >> the fiscal year they guided in august when they record and so they're in their fiscal q3 right now and they guided to 4.5% revenue growth and eps down and so when you think about that down about 9% or so, next year expect to be up 12% on eps if you think about all of these pressures that we're talking about as relates to margins, wages are not going lower. we can all agree with that walmart is short of employees. >> not yet. >> and so if you're talking about a consumer, if you start to see weakening demand as we go into 2023 where the recession is supposed to happen, that eps number for fiscal 2024 that we're almost there probably
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seems a bit high. >> supply chain costs will go down they have been problematic in the last year so that's one. >> yeah, but i'm just saying so if you have -- you're paying your hundreds of thousands of employees higher, right, and demand is weaker from a similar story, that's not a great setup. so to me i think you're out -- your estimates for earnings are too high and guiding at 21 times, that's well above a market multiple and is probably still too high. >> who, for walmart? >> yeah. >> walmart is not cheap. we've been doing the walmart versus target trade. it's been a lopsided victory for one side or the other and walmart has been outperforming aggressively walmart probably trades three or four turns premium to the market where target is probably three or four turns below the market as much as i love walmart and i am long walmart and have a little bit of target, much smaller position, i think target -- >> let's play would you rather it's monday.
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let's do it. so walmart or a staples company like clorox? we're talking about valuation of the company. we're talking about companies that you can argue do much better when the economy is in a downturn, when a consumer is strapped you want to go to something that they can buy all the time or they can go to to save money. >> yeah. i haven't looked at clorox closely enough to answer that. >> change it for p & g. or kimberly clark. >> i would rather walmart given that game. procter & gamble is more expensive than walmart listen, walmart will win in the environment that we find ourselves in in that game, yes. the problem is i think we've retraced 50% of that, again, that all-time high and recent low that we saw. so the natural progression should be then to make a move to the downside, maybe another 8 or 9% before it gets interesting. >> all right our next guest notices an interesting trend in the markets right now. let's go off the charts with
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chris who was just ranked the number two technical analyst on wall street in 2022 and the institutional investors research survey chris, congratulations what are we taking a look at >> i think what's notable about this market is how different the action is at the surface level relative to what's playing out under the surface. so the index versus the average st stock. we start with the s&p over the last year wh what do we know here every rally attempt has failed at a high. about 4150 is where the downtrend comes into play. we're presently about 300 points below those august highs now, if we look at the qqq chart here as well, very similar story. every single rally, lower high, lower high, lower high but what this doesn't show us is actually the improvement that we've seen under the surface
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so the percentage of stocks that are actually trading above their 200-day moving average, 56% today, is higher than what we saw when the s&p was 300 index points higher in august, 51% so under the surface, the average issue is demonstrating leadership versus the top of the market this is very, very reminiscent to what we saw in the 2001-2002 bear market. there were points of that bear market where the index would fall but you'd get 60, 70% of issues above the 200-day it was the average issue outperforming the top of the tape so when we take a look at the big weights today, isn't it notable despite a 15% s&p rally, despite nearly 60% of issues above the 200-day, what's not above the 200-day? not microsoft, not tesla, no apple, not amazon, not google. the largest weights are still the technically weakest parts of
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this market. so if we take a step back and say what does this mean longer term, i want to show you a very notable comparison these were the five largest weights in the s&p in 1999 we're talking about cisco, of course ibm, nokia, et cetera they papeaked at 12% of the indx over the next seven years their weight would fall to about 5% of the index. it took seven years to complete that top of the market losing leadership today as we know, the five largest, amazon, apple, tesla, microsoft, alphabet, peaked at about 25% of the s&p we think ultimately this is headed down to 15. so if we're losing the largest weights, it's hard for the index to make a lot of progress. i think 4150 is probably the top end of the range but the average issue is where you make money this is very, very similar to that 2001-2002 bear market
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very important theme here. >> chris, do they trade as a monolith or are there certain stocks among those top five, the five biggest, that you think will fare the worst? >> i think they trade as a monolith here. it's always the best ones that go last. apple is the one that really hasn't broken in a big way yet i do think that will be a story in 2023. it's still a weak name but when you look at tesla action even the last couple of days the market has rallied sharply, what hasn't moved tesla is still above the 200-level. amazon looks very counter trend. microsoft and google are just back to where they were a couple of weeks ago when i look at the big weights, and remember these were 25% of the index. that's too much. that will correct itself over a very long period of time so don't lose the plot of the movie. we get these countertrend rallies, some quite big. but the plot of the movie is the large weights continue to surrender leadership that's a process that will be
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measured in years, not in months or quarters. >> and so chris, those names you pointed out were hardware companies, right so where are we going? what are the sectors that can pick up some of that slack i talk often that energy, which is 60% of the s&p at its peak in 2008, where do you think the average stock is going to be, though, that picks up that weighting? >> tim, i think what people forget is not only was energy 16% of the s&p in '08, in 1930 it was 30% of the s&p. so we went from 30% in 1980 to 2 hand co % in 2020. what we've been writing and saying is you want to own stocks or sectors or groups that are doing something demonstrably different than the index itself. i want names and groups that are already above where they were in august we get a lot of capital markets there. look at morgan stanley or goldman sachs. you get a lot of the
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industrials. c cummins is fantastic it's not the stocks or groups that people own a lot of there's so much legacy positioning in the apples and amazons. the things that continue to work, leadership and ownership is still too small. >> chris, good to see you, thank you. guy adami, the last time it took seven years, says chris you can argue that markets move a lot faster these days and the unwind could be much swifter what do you think? >> yeah, i agree with that i think things do move quicker i think chris will agree with that as well, but his point is well made that we're losing the leadership and it takes some time to get to equilibrium i think we're in the early innings of that. i think people are expecting apple to have a huge bounce. microsoft. i would submit it's part of a healthy bottoming pattern that we need to go through, it just takes some time. coming up, tech layoffs hit
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amazon the e-commerce giant announcing job cuts what it will mean for the stock. plus shares of biogen jumping thanks to another company's bad day. we'll explain, back in two
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we've got a news alert on david tepper's appnnaloosa >> they are cutting kohl's, selling over 1.8 million shares. while there is no change to its larger position in macy's, they hold 6 million shares, macy's earnings or out wednesday before the bell the company, though, did sell over 12% of its holdings of meta the stock pretty much flat, to the upside unlike other 13 fs, there were no buying opportunities in this 13-f filing for q3 the quarter did end on september 30th and did not disclose short positions. >> and of course david tepper is
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a relatively quick trader so who knows where he is right now on a lot of these positions unless they're sizeable sales or purchases. karen, what do you make of that? >> she mentioned kohl's and you looked over at me. >> i did, i looked over at you. >> i think kohl's -- he does some risk arbitrage from time to time appeared if he like me and many many others were like, ugh, i'm thoroughly disgusted and i'm out and not going to revisit it. netflix, i don't know. that's sort of interesting. >> well, you think about -- first of all, david tepper has been swift and nimble in terms of his call on the market and he's been right. he really has been when you think about semis, arguably at the end of september that was at least a bottom for now. semis went on a 30% tear i'm not saying that he wasn't right to be fading and micron is very different than nvidia, which has risen 52% from almost
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that date. so it's just a very interesting time when you think of some of the biggest hedge funds in the world and he certainly runs one of them, there's some very big and crowded trades that you have to keep your eye on as an investor and that's just been the story, very crowded trades. >> interesting that he stood by his holdings of macy's, which is a sizeable position, guy i don't know how you think about that >> maybe looking for an activist to jump in, can rationalize it on valuation i don't think about it i'll tell you, though, netflix just looking at the calendar and where the stock has traded from looks like he did extraordinarily well on that but the fact that he's blowing out of micron i think is pretty interesting. a stock that went from 90 down to mid-50s, 60 bucks now that clearly wasn't a winner, which is fine. we all have bad trades but the fact that he's pulling the rip cord on micron in this environment to me is a little interesting. let's move onhere. the big tech payroll trims keep coming amazon cutting 10,000 employees
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and corporate and tech roles beginning this week. it would be the largest in the company's history. shares of amazon down another 2 plus percent today does this signal an end to the boom for the e-tailer. it will focus on alexa, echo, home stuff, the stuff that's a little more experimental, less profitable dan, what do you think >> this is an easy place to cut. we've talked about some of the parts and the way investors think of it. really the entire valuation is aws, the public cloud business that's growing and financed the other parts. the retail business, which they clearly overexpanded on. karen, you were mentioning it the other day, logistics, they were selling off stuff and they hired tens of thousands of employees. they'll probably start with that appeared see how investors react to that. i think investors liked it with the news late last week and the stock rallied here
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but i don't think this is enough of a cut where you can say they're one and done i think they will continue to do this in and around the edges and again andy jassey will chart his own path forward for this company. >> i agree with you that it's not one and done it took them years, years to build up this infrastructure at a time when they and everybody like them was growing, growing, and money was free but these sound like higher income jobs. >> they do they need the warehouse workers. >> they need the warehouse workers, right so that's -- you know, i think we're going to see even more of it we've seen a lot starting amazon here today and what we've seen alphabet and microsoft and obviously meta last week i think we'll continue to see more i wonder if it's just going to be a big white collar recession. >> hence more tradedowns at a place like walmart when they're seeing higher income consumers.
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>> schlas much as the numbers an azure weren't terrible, there's no question it's all in the cloud, it's all ball bearings these days, whatever you want to say. the bottom line is this is part of the pressure that i'm not sure we've seen on amazon. we haven't really heard about headwind and enterprise. we hinted around it but microsoft, especially around some of their office and some of that suite, they really have room i just think that there's a place here where some of the big folks haven't worn where they should and that concerns me when you bring it back to amazon. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. a biotech bunk biogen shares in rally mode after a rival stumbles will this stock keep climbing? the details next. plus, the china factor what the meeting between the u.s. and chinese leaders means for overseas investing you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site
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welcome back to "fast money. biogen is hitting its highest level since september of last year, jumping more than 3% after roche fill 5%. they are also getting an upgrade. oppenheimer raising its price target to 315 a share maintaining its outperform rating so is the price right for biogen specifically roche these were late stage, the level
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of plaque remuovals was lower than expected. this is viewed as the number one challenge to biogen's treatment. >> yeah, which is why you saw the move you have to understand at this level, and i think most people do if they watch the show. if you own biogen you have to stomach a move potentially back to 2.25, understanding if they were right this goes to a company being a $100 billion that's how big alzheimer's is. if you can withstand that potential move, i still like biogen and this is not in a vacuum. we've been saying it for a while. >> karen. >> we've seen how volatile this can be on a little bit of news. >> look at amgen >> also eli lilly as well in the space. for eli lilly, they have sales that will be enormous.
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they're not relying as much on alzheimer's. i'm not that optimistic. >> if you look at amgen, it's taken out that blow-off top that led to a pullback in the stock when there was a question about the efficacy of some of that data i would get back to the ibb and what these companies are giving you. they're giving you free cash flow, balance sheets, valuations that are not difficult and one of the best charts of any sectors out there. coming up, the china challenge. president biden meeting with xi jinping earlier today. the impact it could have on u.s./china relations that's next. "fast money" is back in two. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, any way follow today on your favorite 'rba rhtft tpp wee ckig aerhis. esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance.
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welcome back another check on markets today stocks taking a breather from last week's big rally. the dow dropping 200 points and the nasdaq dropping nearly a percent. shares of hasbro dropping 2% after a bearish note from bank of america the stock's worst day since marchof 2020.
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turning to the big meeting that took place in bali this morning, president biden and chinese president xi met for three hours and discussed everything from nuclear weapons in ukraine to taiwan's independence the two downplaying tensions and pledging more communication between the two countries. for the real takeaways, let's bring in the senior policy analyst and managing directora longview global. always good to see you you know, three hours isn't a long time for them to really iron out differences what did you make of this meeting? it seems like a step in the right direction at least >> thanks for having me, melissa. look, i think you're absolutely right. this meeting was absolutely a step in the right direction. this was around guardrails around competition and really setting up what many people will consider to be the terms of coexistence, melissa i think this meeting went a long ways in doing that a lot of people have been calling for, and i've said the same thing, a multi-level
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ongoing dialogue mechanism to help manage through this challenge that we are facing in the u.s./china relationship. i think this meeting went a long ways in doing that biden talked about secretary blinken traveling on to china after this to continue those discussions. he talked about cabinet level officials meeting with their chinese counterparts to talk about some of these issues and so, look, there hasn't been a cabinet level visit to china in over three years, so this is an important step, i agree with that but i want to be cautious here that in order for these dialogues to really work and help manage through the challenges, they have to remain open and viable. and china is notorious for turning these dialogues off and on to show their displeasure with the u.s. for one thing or the other. after speaker pelosi visited taiwan, china turned off eight dialogues to include nil to nil, counternarcotics cooperation and climate change
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that just can't happen if we're going to manage through these challenges these dialogues have to stay open specifically during times where there are concerns and prices. >> do you think this meeting marked any sort of a change in the direction of our relationship a course correction, the beginning of one, or is it way, way, way too early? you seem like an optimistic guy. i'm by nature not really, so i'm very skeptical. >> well, i think you're right to be skeptical in terms of what people are calling a course correction this was not that. look, the long-term strategic trajectory is set. it's competition but the question is how do you do that? do you do that in a way that doesn't lead to conflict that's what this was about but for those who think we're going to return to the days of 2005, that's not going to happen the u.s. and china has made it clear that competition is the way forward. both sides have competing
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visions about how the world should be ordered. that's not going to change with today's meeting. that won't change even with the dialogue mechanisms that we're discussing but it's how you compete that matters. it's trying to find ways to cooperate where you can. and again, trying to find ways to coexist that's where we are with today's meeting and i think over the long term. >> it's tim. and i think that's how some of our greatest diplomatic relationships have gone in other parts of the world too and not communicating is the worst thing we can do. i think we're doing this around the world. but my question is and i hear it from the biden administration, comments that we've reiterated over and over our stance on particular issues so no one will be surprised when in fact or disappointed by our view sometime later now, i don't know if the biden administration wants to get to taiwan but we're hearing other members of congress say, hey, mckaufrt mccarthy is talking about heading over there there's some people that want to
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whack that hornet's nest and i'm just wondering what that's going to do. >> tim, you're right to raise some particular concerns about a republican controlled congress who have a lot of additional things that they'd like to see done but look, i have to give president biden some kudos he was at clear on taiwan as i've ever seen him today he stated clearly that he is opposed to a unilateral change in the status quo. that u.s. policy around taiwan has not changed and he didn't deviate, as we've heard in the past so i think that's refreshing for individuals who would like to see this toned down a bit. but to your bit, i don't think the biden administration can control what's going to come from congress. but at least the administration was clear how they're looking at this particular issue. >> thank you for your time >> thank you very much, melissa. guy, geopolitical has been top on your list of wild cards
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for this year. does this meeting make you feel any better no imminent attempt by china to invade taiwan. that word "imminent" seems to jump out at me. >> imminent is a scary word. you know i'm in your camp, i'm always a half empty person without question but this is a good first step. the fact that buffett comes out with that snake taiwan semi, i mean he clearly understands what's happening on the landscape, so i guess in a certain way that's his way of dismissing or saying, you know what, maybe there's only a 10 or 15% of something happening there. i still think things are going to escalate at some point. this obviously is a good first step but the chinese are going to do what's best for the chinese. that's always been their game plan. >> i tend to also be a skeptic about some of this stuff i really see a place in 2023 where maybe the things in ukraine really calm down a bit it seems like they have done things that none of us expected
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when russia invaded them earlier this year. it seems like that could -- diplomatically too there's some movement with the biden administration and some people over there. if the china thing is off the table for 2023 with taiwan, we could have a much more just calmer geopolitical situation which i think would be great for the global economy that has no shortage of headwinds, really still reeling after the pandemic. >> it has been a couple weeks, three weeks we were talking about companies that operate in china and how they should be concerned. maybe there should be a discount in the likes of apple or starbucks or any of these. is that off the table here >> what do you think is gone, the growth or the skepticism >> the skepticism. >> for me it's not gone. ironically, though, for all the things you've talking about which could happen, it's inflationary. >> that's the point. when i think of the whole china thing, that's exactly right. china -- everything about the china relationship, bottom line back here, it's inflationary it's onshoring, it's near shoring. china was exporting deflation for 40 years
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it's a lot of different things globalization is dead. china is a major consumer of energy they're going to get it wherever they can they're going to dpcompete with us so all of the inflationary pressures we think are going away overnight are not. two traders on meta. their takes on the stock next. plus netflix shares streaming higher today what the move is stirring up in the options pits we've got the details when "fast money" returns is it possible the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network.
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welcome back meta rising on reports the company is cancelling several hardware projects to further cut costs after announcing mass layoffs last week. the stock up 30% from lows earlier this month two of our traders are playing this name in opposite ways dan, you sold. >> well, karen and i -- i think we bought some the same day, a gap lower. i thought there was a chance for the gap and did not want to be long into it you have a 20% rally from the point in which i bought it in such a short period of time i thought i'd fill in that gap i don't need to be there for the whole thing so i'm out i took the trade i think i said at the time i don't love the company, i don't love the company, the products,
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the ceo or its future, i thought it was a good trading opportunity. >> but you do like everything. >> valuation, valuation, valuation. but i said that for a long time. so what's that worth we did buy it at almost the same time i absolutely agree with dan. you know, he's very clear. i'm in it for a trade. this is way overdub, i think it could bounce meaningfully, all of which happened. good for you, nice trade i think it's still way overdone. but still i think that -- and i actually think the disdain peaked we'll see. there's always more disdain out there it seems but i feel like the bad sentiment peaked. >> guy is full of it when it comes to meta. >> full of what? >> the disdain, that is. >> is that a bad thing i'm not alone. >> it is. >> it's probably early a lot of people -- dan traded it karen is an investor in it i think they're both doing it exactly the right way. we've said the 10, 15, maybe 10%
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chance that something happens with tiktok here in this country, you're talking about a stock that's going to go up 15% probably in a day. so there's still some upside here facebook's problems are not fixed by any stretch, but the hubris seems to be going away slowly, which is a good thing for the stock. >> all right, let's stick with big tech options traders are feeling pretty bullish about netflix as the stock jumped 3% today. mike khouw has the action. mike. >> netflix one of the biz ye single stock options more than doubled its average call volume today, over 380,000 call contracts in total traded the busiest of those are the november 310 calls for an average of $4.65 a contract and buyers are betting that the action we saw today could continue that would be an increase just under 5% by week's end. >> tim, how do you feel about netflix? >> it's had a very big run off of that bounce you're getting some dynamics
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you're seeing disney raise prices on disney plus. you're seeing them start to articulate what the model means. i'm long the stock so for me it's just about getting back above water. i think it goes higher, and i think ultimately we have not priced in where the sub should be i think the ad business is something that was long overdue. >> and again, i would just say, i look at disney here. i bought it the day after its earnings i thought it was a little overdone i just think that this cycle has been playing out it might not be like this in the next cycle but to me disney looks like the stock gapd down, it filled in the gap. if netflix is going to keep powering forward, i think disney will too. >> mike khouw, thanks. after the break, the latest on the ftx collapse. the implications it has for the entire crypto space. the details when we come right back
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welcome back the question is how big will ripple effects be on the rest of the industry from the collapse of sam bankman-fried's company kate rooney joins us with the latest developments. >> hey, melissa. another crypto hedge fund caught in the crossfire they had a large majority of the fund's total assets on ftx they tweeted by the time they went to withdraw monday morning they got very little out and are now stuck alongside everyone else he adds that it's hard for him to imagine the space bouncing back quickly from this ordeal and said too many people got burned too hard. sources also tell me a handful of other funds are in the same position right now and it might not just be crypto funds there are likely more traditional crossover funds that dipped their toes into crypto recently sam bankman-fried told us back in august that these high profiles are power traders were
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ft x's core clients. that i can a listen. >> most of our volume comes from customers trading at least $100,000 per day of volume and so these are high volume, highly engaged users and it's sort of everything from like someone in the crypto ecosystem to a small firm, a family office, day traders, to larger trading firms to institutions it spans a lot of different sort of demographics and countries and types of players but they're all generally fairly sophisticated, fairly engaged and fairly large volume. >> we're also now seeing the fallout in washington. sam bankman-fried donated about $40 million in the last campaign cycle. congress members who received contributions are starting to make plans to donate those funds. senators durbin and hogan are among the senators saying they're going to do that >> kate rooney. >> why not give those funds back to the people that lost them
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>> there's an idea >> i'm just thinking like if they want to do something good, how about all these people that are innocent investors lost their money. >> it's amazing you're talking about high volume sophisticated investors that use the platform and now they're all stuck with no -- they're holding the bag basically. they're bag holders in all of this they were sophisticated enough to do the due diligence. >> it's interesting, i'll tell you this if you were looking for an institutional platform to use, forget retail because they were just trading them everywhere think about robinhood the last two years, it became a crypto thing. if you're an institution and you had every reason to believe to trade with that institution, that's one thing if you are an investor, like in this platform as an entity, you know what i mean, that's where the due diligence i think fell down in talking to a handful of vcs who actually were pitched on this company over the last couple of months, a lot of them just didn't pass the smell test is why they didn't raise the capital. no one and came out and said anything and people were still
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letting him be on the cover of magazines and everything else. so it's really interesting the due diligence on that side seemed to be okay at least at this stage of the game but there were enough things out there over the last few months that we've seen, enough blowups where people had a reason to be skeptical. >> think of all the people that paid or got paid to have ftx all over them, including major league umpires who are supposed to arbitrate between good -- they're not, not this. but it's shocking to think about how this was a company that was elevated to be the blue chip in a new stratosphere of investment. >> we've got another news alert from corevex kristina partsinevelos is back with details. >> corvex did increase their stake in amazon up about 12% but when it came to alphabet they decreased their stake by tw 29%. so selling 29% in q3
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the company also getting out about 27% lower in constellation energy so they're lowering their stake there, selling about 483,000 shares and then a big one for them, csx energy as well, they increased their stake by 60%, buying 693,000 new shares in csx energy one last one since we talk about software, five nine, they sold their stake, over half a million shares gone for corvex >> all right, kristina, thank you. kristina partsinevelos final trades up next
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final trade time guy. >> little technical setup in thor industries, tho, mel. >> tim. >> not a cheap stock but walmart is defensive here, should trade at a premium i think you'll get same-store sales north of 4%. >> karen. >> i agree with most of what he said, not a cheap stock, should trade at a premium, might get okay sales i'm going with lowe's, though,
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similar store. >> dan. >> up. i bet on the dollar doing it through that that was a nice break. >> thanks for watching "fast money. we'll see you back here at 5:00. in the meantime do not go anywhere "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all invels torinvesto. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make some money. my job is not just to entertain but ed kucate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer something is changing in this market we should have gone down friday huge after


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