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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 15, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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next. >> and when you already have gotten to the place where you have priced in higher than 5% on the fed funds, which we did coming into this month, it doesn't take that much to back off of that a little bit who knows? we'll see. >> yeah. these sessions are always interesting. that's mike santoli. we do have those earnings. "fast money" is up now. >> the rally rolls on. reports of a russian strike into nato territory could keep the markets lower. is it time to fade this rally or stay long? plus moving higher new tough talk from the fbi about tiktok a key driver for the social surge and later an activist calling for job cuts at alphabet another crypto company is reportedly filing for bankruptcy i'm melissa lee. we're here on "fast money.
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we start off with the wild ride on dow street. the dow climbing as much as 450 points early in the day after another better than expected inflation report, but it fell sharply after reports that russian missiles struck poland at the end to have the day, all three major ib dendexes closed n the green. walmart the worst performer on the dow yesterday. now the best, rising more than 6% after earnings for its best day since july 2020. and chinese tech stocks continuing their rally accounting for 4 of the top 6 performers in the nasdaq what does today tell you about where the markets are heading from over here there seems to be a belief that the fed will be at bay because of this tame ppi number. >> there seems to be some view based upon the rhetoric we've had. even though the rhetoric underscored the fact these rates
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will stay for some period, that we will ride through multiple periods and then we will see when they reassess we got to a case where finished goods, especially as it looks on the inflation side and we saw it last week really does feel like it's top the bigger issue is on the services side. back to markets, back to predictable levels where there is 200 day on the s&p, somewhere around 475, whether it's the smh, where semiconductors have gone right up to about a 35% rally off that stocks have had a very, very strong birth and if anything, i was fading some strength in these numbers we'll talk about walmart we will talk everything retail but to me as much as i'm bullish on walmart, i sold 25% of a position based upon both the conversation we had last night and based upon where they gave us a great update in terms of where they are in terms of their consumer
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but there is no question that the guide that we get into next year and even netflix faded. it is adding a massive move. i think that's what you do in this market. you can trade around a little bit. >> did you trade around at all today? >> no, i didn't. i don't own as much walmart as i do target, but i fully agree with you, trading around you know, i sold some upside gm calls, uri calls just because they've had enormous calls and i'd feel kind of stupid if they ended up back where they were three weeks ago in three weeks i'd be like, all right, that was a -- i had taken some money off the table. >> but that's your feeling, that there will probably be a pullback of some sort? >> yeah, i think so. i don't know when exactly, but i just feel like we've had an enormous run if you told me three weeks ago this is where we would be on the day we had, this is good, but this is still a good run. >> such pessimism here on the
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desk a ppi coming in tamer than expected what walmart is saying about the consumer what it is saying about next year, these are all positive things isn't there a reason to believe that perhaps the fed will take its foot off the gas pedal that perhaps a ten-year deal has already peaked therefore, we do have this runway for tech stocks, for growth parts of the market to rally? >> it wouldn't surprise me terribly to hear the fed take a more moderate tone here. but the problem i think with inflation data is that people are looking at rates of change in realtime rather than taking a look of the state of the world in price terms i think that's where you will really see some pressure on consumers. it is one of the things that helped bolster walmart the energy complex, whether you are looking at gasoline or net gas and crude, you know, we're looking at since january of 2020 up about 100%. most agriculture things, food,
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eggs, milks, all that kind of stuff, we're up anywhere from 30% to 50% consumers will feel the pinch for this they have not seen wage increases in line with that. and that has always supported the u.s. economy when things got south. they are going to be hurting, and, you know, whether we get 50 basis points, 75 basis points. it will be in place to fade the s&p. >> there is only so long, i guess, steve, that the consumer will continue to dip into their savings to offset some of their inflationary pressures savings rated dropped. that nest egg is getting a little smaller now so now what? what do you think? >> yeah. so i think i'm going to be the most positive on the desk tonight. >> whoa! hold on a second >> if i look at commodities and i look at oil, if i look at cotton, if i look at lumber, iron, ore, orange juice, wheat,
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did i leave anything out yes, heating oil all of that is either at the low of the 52 week range or the middle to the lower part of the 52 week range. that, to me, is something to be hopeful for. that, to me, is something to keep powell at bay now, there is two things that would stop me from being positive going into year end powell comes out and says no way. i'm slowing down number one number two, putin or gopolitical, geographic headwinds coming in with what we saw today. but, melissa, if you look at the s&p range today, if you look at the high and the low in the s&p, we closed on the screws at the 50% mark so the 50% move was 3990 in the s&p. we closed d at 3991. that tells me this market wants
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to go higher regardless of what it sees in front of it >> well, that's sort of what we saw in today's session we got those reports about missiles going into poland aren't we just one layer up in russia/ukraine, one covid lockdown i know you saw this, tim riots, protests because of the trajectory of cases right now, the same trajectory that we saw just ahead of the shanghai lockdowns. we're not that far off there >> well, we never poopoo and underestimate the importance certainly socially and on the world of some of these geopolitical events. but we do point out the implications of what they mean in terms of market moves and the limitations of what they mean. i would get back to the more important dynamics for markets first of all, look at the way airlines are trading look at the way emerging markets are trading after a xi jinping
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and biden summit better than expected i would get back to the market is seeing through a lot of the geopolitics and trying to understand where are we in recover from the pandemic and facing headwindsment back to walmart, and this is how i think about all of it, walmart had been the ben fish in terms of higher foods most of that was ticket sales. and a lot of that is just from inflation. 70% of that came from inflation. i think if everything we're saying is that goods inflation has really peaked, i actually think that's something that will hurt even a walmart and some of these retailers seeing the ability to pass this on and higher prices. as we think about the world, geopolitics and the fed, the fed is the most important. the fed and the dollar we have all said this for months if we have topped on interest rates and we have topped on the dollar, it does give equity some room to room but after a 30% move in much of the mega cap tech stocks, as
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karen said, you can love positions and you can trade around them, and this is one of the greatest trading markets of all time. >> so that has been priced in then, that is what the theory is feds big moves that the peak in interest rates we priced that in to the rally we have just seen. >> we have not seen where early estimates go we have seen so far they're going down you have to wait for the impacts to the consumer on corporate america. >> steve, you are shaking your head you don't agree. >> yeah. it is a tactical position for me i'm just going -- i think longer term, we're going to hit some headwinds. i think q1, q2 we will hit head winds in the economy and you could have recession nar issues taking hold. but for the next month and a half, i think you are going to see a pretty face ripping rally higher, and we could trade up to 4400 in the s&p. so everyone is looking at the 200 day moving average as a way
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to lighten up. and that could be the case you could have a minor speed bump there people could get rid of their stocks and then i think we will get back on the horse, and we are going to ride it right into year end. and it's probably going to finish off around 4400 i think everyone on this desk is going to feel a lot happier about their portfolio, and a lot of the investigators will feel crazy about their portfolio being as what they have seen as they looked in the face of how poor they felt six months ago. >> all right for more ppi retail sales tomorrow and more fed speakers for the rest of the week, let's bring in senior economic correspondent steve liesman. steve, nice to see you do you think anybody will be willing to say we've hit peak inflation, we saw it and it's coming down? >> no, you could get some positive comments. i don't think they will be quite so over the top in that kind of
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conversation i don't think she's going to say that i think that the idea that i have had that these two reports together, cpi and ppi, the fed can maybe start counting i don't think it has a definite number and wants to count two. i think three good months and maybe by january the fed could think about being at a place where it might pause for a while to see what's happened to the economy. so i think -- i think you could see a place where the fed could pause. i think there is some potential upside risk to that if inflation does not behave. i think that number and by the way, this is not a huge gamble on my part to say this is somewhere between 4.5 and 5% what's happened with this better than expected number, melissa, is i think the possibly that the fed goes above five starts to recede i don't think you have much play on the short end or the near term part of the curve there the idea that the fed is going
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to 4.5%. i think it has a date with 4.5%. it may have a date with 4.75%. that number of 5% is probably off. >> steve, it's karen so after last month we had a very hawkish jerome powell and now there seems to be a little bit of daylight in between the hawks and, well, br brainard, i guess. do you think that will change more, we will get more rhetoric from the fed prior to the next meeting? >> yeah. i do but i think you want to be a little careful, karen, not to misinterpret the rhetoric, at least on the sort end. that different -- the differences between fed officials, i see, as affecting where they're going to stop. not kind of getting there in the interim. i think 50 looks like a pretty good bet for the december meeting. remember, that's a big rate hike i know you are kind of numb to
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it all but at this point 50 is still a big number there might be another 25 on top of that, maybe another 25 after that so it may be 100 it may be 75 more. the issue is do they stop, you know, at 50 or do they stop at 100? i think that's the difference between the fed officials. those differences should get a little bigger after when the new year starts. but remember, we used to have hawks and doves on the fed that's normal. that's normalization of the situation. right now the last several months it's all been hawks the question is who hawkier than the next that's just not the case anymore and i think we will start to see these differences start to become more prevalent. >> that's a new term, hawkier, dovier so, steve, now that we could put 5% in the rearview mirror, i mean, as we sort of cross off these -- these highs, does the -- that window that powell was talking about for the soft landing, do you think that window gets any bigger and, you know, i was talking to
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the former treasury secretary earlier this afternoon and he outlined the scenario where he sees a shallow recession but one that could last a year to 18 months, which seems like a much longer period than what the markets might be currently factors in and i'm just wondering how -- how things are shaping up in terms of the economist view of things. >> i think what we need to do is kind of, you know, asset and liability side on this. >> okay. on the one hand, we have long -- we have low unemployment and that's really going to help. i think if we get off with an up employment rate that doesn't rise by more than 1%, i think that's a soft landing. that's a shallow time. now, we also have all of these rate hikes that will hit the economy some time next year. and i think it is also a very important liability for this economy that we don't have a fed
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that's going to help the only way the fed is going to help is by stopping raising rates. i think the market, because it's been so consumed with other issues right now, missed the idea that the g20 is meeting amid concern about a global recession and they're not really talking about how to help the global economy why? because their hands are tied with this global inflation problem. so, you know, what is that phrase from bruce springsteen. take a left at the right, go straight tonight and then you're on your own. that's where the market is now when it comes to dealing with any economic downturn. it is not going to get fiscal or monetary policy help. >> yeah. and with divided congress, that will be harder to push through on that side of things. >> good point. >> steve, always great to speak with you thanks for your time steve leiesmanliesman. michael, how do you think about this in terms of where the fed might end up and what that environment will be on the other
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side >> well, i mean, if history is going to be our guide, what we know is that the fed has had challenges in years passed when they tried to tackle inflation the problem tends to be more persistent but there are these lulls. that happened in the arthur burns era. we don't have the same kind of inflation at this point that they had look, they don't want to be overly hawkish they don't want to induce a recession. any excuse they have to essentially moderate the pace of rate increases is an avenue i think they're very likely to take but i suspect that the problem is going to be persistent and when that happens, we're not going to get sort of the all clear the way i think many people are hoping. >> all right coming up, time could be running out for tiktok the latest agency that is extremely concerned about the chinese video app and the social
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welcome back to "fast money. pushing for alphabet to be the next to cut costs. calling them the google parent to cut costs aggressively. adding that head count and compensation are too high. the london based hedge fund owns north of $4 billion. cost per employee is simply too high, karen. do you agree >> yes but i think hopefully he's not -- it won't be falling on deaf ears. i think they are receptive to that message i think they are starting to do that anyway. we have talked for years about luke being the grown up in the room and really she clarified, made more transparency in the income statement in the district divisions. i think they're totally up for it now, it is a built tilting at windmills. it's for the kids, you know?
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but i like alphabet a lot of course it is my biggest position. but you will not have any control. they know that, of course. but i think it will be well received i think it's already there maybe he's trying to prod them to do it anyway. the part where he's saying let's just be done with whamo, that part i don't know they will do that. >> it is interesting we had an activist i don't know if you call them an activist if you can't really -- >> you can't act. >> exactly because of the dual class structure. also meta and here they are saying cut costs, cut costs, and they are moving in that direction already because of the circumstances. >> you get to this place where facebook is the extreme example but google too, where they are profitable and continued to chug on that is the environment where tech companies are reigning in a lot of spending when money no longer is free dwoogle also like facebook but
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to extent they are growing along with their multiple. in other words, the price to earnage growth, whatever you want to call it, google is the best buy in town it is not like you can be critical that at the expense of the earnings metrics is way out-of-bounds. if you think about it, what are the businesses that google has grown in the last few years that are notable. it's youtube this was an acquisition or ultimately was developed and they really brought this thing forward to a place i think there is a lot more they could be doing on the digital media site. but i don't think there is a lot to fix here. >> in your scenario of a fierce and short rally, does alphabet do well or another kind of stock? >> yes no, i think the whole market does well. large cap tech does extremely well out of the large cap names, apple has the best performance year to date and month to date but google is right there. and the catch phrase has been layoffs. i think we have seen about
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35,000 or so layoffs announced for just november. so if you haven't laid off any of your employees, you're sort of behind the curve. you are almost -- it's kind of a weird dynamic. you are almost shamed into doing it apple has not laid off anyone. i think their line was we're not laying off anyone, but we're judicially hiring or we're thoughtfully hiring. i think that's the way they put it i think if google actually does this and lays off people, it will be greeted with a rally in the stock price. all right. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's up next. >> tiktok on the rocks more officials signing off on the china home video app what it all could mean for social stocks next plus, a walmart win. shares surging on the back of strong results but will the rest of retail follow suit? the warning from an industry expert ahead you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. more gridlock after the fbi sounded the alarm on its operations in the u.s. i can't stop watching this video. christopher wray voiced his concerns to lawmakers this morning. >> they include the possibility that the chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations if they so chose or to control software on millions of devices >> shares of competitors snap and meta up today. so should tiktok really be
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banned there is a proposal for routing that data through u.s. servers so that wouldn't be an issue karen, you talked about this as being the outlier in terms of the catalyst that could really make a difference for meta. >> yes, i think it could i don't think it is a high probability, but it is getting higher we saw that fcc commissioner where it is not under their -- it is not under their authority, but to hear these voices, multiple ones come out, it's going up from no way in hell would that happen to, i don't know, to more than that. >> mike, what's your take? >> yeah. we're in an environment right now where i have a feeling the folks in washington will be more cautious than they might have been a couple of years ago it is just sort of the global state of affairs that we have here and, you know, i mean, there is obviously huge user demand for tiktok but i think that we should be concerned about these types of things
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you know, if we don't come to some accord where we on shore basically the technology, i'm in the camp that we should be doing something to regulate it it is a risk it's obviously had a huge rally off the bottom but if there is no tiktok talk, then i think snap is definitely -- it will be the better bet going forward, so there would be a transition there, i think. >> tiktok toe. i don't think this is facebook's issue. first after owl, rally 22% more than the market over the last eight days it should have in an environment where the ceo came out and said we made some mistakes we will probably cut back on some spending, i will read through and say i think this is a little bit of a softer move towards the metaverse, and this is everything the stock wanted to hear. if you think both these stocks would be rallying in the face of a tiktok announcement, they should be rallying more. the market was up today.
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these markets went sideways. they underperformed for so long, i don't think that facebook and snap are reacting to tiktok. and i don't think they should. i care about the politics. you don't care about my politics at home, so i won't talk about them i think the reality is with both of those companies there is different reasons. snap has issues with how they advertise. and facebook, they have overspent. talk about a tech company that needs to cut expenses, it's facebook, not google. >> we heard this possibility, that there is a possibility that tiktok could be banned but now we're hearing about other solutions short of a ban, which does not solve meta's problems at all, steve. >> yeah. it doesn't solve meta's problems at all but to tim's point, these snap and meta have been rallying. snap is up 18% for the month but it's been basing since july. so my take-away is that the
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longer the base, you know, you could finish that statement, the longer the base, this thing looks like it is going to skyrocket to me, at least short term i would be a buyer of snap on this karen mentioned this as well it is all about eyeballs so netflix will benefit from this as well if it is somewhere in the middle of the most onerous to the least, then, you know, we will have to get back to business as it was but to mike's original point, to put a bow on it, we're very sensitive -- we're at a very sensitive time i don't think you are going to see something hyper exaggerated in the way we react to tiktok. >> all right the longer the base, the higher the space, by the way. >> interesting in case you are not a big fan. coming up, a big win for walmart. shares jumping but can we expect the same for the rest of retail mickey ey drexley is warning th
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welcome back to "fast money. let's get another check on the markets. the s&p climbs 1% while the nasdaq jumped up 1.5%. the nasdaq gained 65 points led by walmart that stock rallies 7% today. walmart seeing a boost in its grocery business the discount retailer also raising its outlook. target reports tomorrow morning. macy's gap, foot locker, tjx companies also rising above of their report mickey is the former ceo of gap and j crew he joins us here onset at the nasdaq mickey, welcome. >> thank you. >> so there is a glut of apparel out there right now. who is going to feel it the most, what kinds of stores >> well, and i only can really talk about apparel i think we're all over
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inventoried, most. the glut you can see by the pricing that people have to suffer lower margins, in amy opinion to get rid of the glut as walmart did today you were too bull about the third quarter in our business, which is a small business. we had a wonderful first half, and it all kind of slowed down in the middle of october now, for us i'm very happy it was cold yesterday because we had the strongest day today on a comparable basis but there is too much inventory. there is too much sale i think black friday started this week. it is incredible when you go online and look at the discounts. and that gives the customer less trust in regular prices. but i thought that my whole career we don't put anything on sale
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for that reason. and, you know, we sell off goods when we have them. but we have a little too much inventory also, but we're small. i think the other issue, i don't like to give weather reports, but i love the cold weather, as all retailers do. >> look at how well you turned out today. it allows you to wear much more fashion. >> well, it is because i'm the guest on cnbc. well, in any case -- and there is a lot of other factors. i think the world is uncertain by the way, this is just my opinions because, you know, walmart had a great day today. >> sure. you have been through many downturns. >> many. >> so i'm wondering how you think this compares to past ones, especially when it comes to this glutton in inventory and the house of the consumer combined. >> well, i think there are a few factors. and, one, i think the product out there, in my personal opinion, is not as good as it could be and product is number one, two
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and three along with marketing and merchandising, investment in goods, not these stocks, let's say. so i think that's a big problem. there's been too much inventory for years, and it's a chronic illness that we all have, along with too much assortment for years. and that's got to be resolved by merchants who think differently. the other thing i see, my own personal opinion is a lot of companies are run by financial people who are all good and well but you have to get a strong merchandiser and a styled person who -- and whatever the still is, who understands what products and goods are the right ones i think that's a factor. and then there is, you know, 401(k)s. everyone has less in their 401(k) i'm not an economist, but it's
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obvious. savings are down and i think that clouds the environment, along with mortgage rates being up inflation. inflation stares everyone in the face. >> so when you talk about product and it is not as good, who is doing a good job with product, do you think? >> well, besides us. >> you, of course. >> well, my friend at restoration hardware who worked with me, since he's not in the apparel business, i'll name them and then products are in every city, the car industry, where i can't tell the difference between one car from another. >> right. >> and, you know, the classics, to me, in anything have a long life and, you know, our mission is to sell clothes that you can wear forever, which we do from a style and design point of view but that's practical and, you know, style never goes out of fashion, but fashion
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itself is a dangerous game >> right you are our most stylish guest we've had onset in a long time, mickey i wish you could help tim a little bit. >> could we do a fashion school? can we upgrade >> i can't help him with ties, but i'll help you with casual clothes. seriously, i like to do that i love what i do. >> i need as much help as i can get. you are an icon. and my son needs help too. >> your son is very cool and he's got a lot of style. i know he's only 11. >> the cool i can vouch for. the style we need help. >> i can vouch for that. >> thank you. >> mickey drexler. who do you think is doing it right? >> one of the things that restoration hardware does is they are holding on to price what mickey is talking about is a retailer that's holding on, not promoting themselves and, in fact, reading his notes,
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one of his main points was that retailers are raising prices because they know they will have to discount it back. with some of the home improvement and some of the home furnishings stores, that's an important dynamic when we are worried about the demand. >> the point also that mickey brought up, mike, was a good one in terms of black friday i feel like black friday started in september i mean, black friday deals pops up on every single ad every single day when is it not black friday? probably on black friday maybe but that's the only day so far i mean, we are all trained to believe that better prices are just around the corner >> yeah. i think at this point, you know, people are doing so much shopping online, i think that has sort of transformed what black friday means black monday is probably more important to a lot of consumers, especially after the last couple of years where people weren't going out to the stores to do some purchasing it is interesting that you mentioned restoration hardware you know, we have a big store near us, and they really tried to make an experience out of it.
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but for most everything else, things are rapidly getting commoditized i think that has a lot to do with the quality of product and shopping online is a big part of that you know, if you are just clicking through websites and trying to look for something that might be your size, versus having an experience, i think that's one of the reasons we saw degradation on the product sides. coming up, the latest on the ftx collapse what he had to say about the collapse and its ripple effect when "fast money" returns. one payment stock that could be ready to surge. 'rlangwee yi out the bull case on that one in just a few. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help.
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welcome back to "fast money. more fall-out in the wake of ftx's collapse preparing to file for bankruptcy blockfi acknowledged it has significantics pose your to ftx. months after seeing the bailout from the crypto exchange today at the executive council, i had a chance to sit down with former treasury secretary steve
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mnuchin and his dealings with ftx. >> we looked at investing twice and passed both times. but, you know, i do think the underlying technology of block chain has interesting implications if you separate it from an asset class. >> well, i kept pressing him he talked more about his second encounter with the company >> i will tell you the second time we looked at it, it was five times the valuation of the first time and, you know, we were a fit surprised at the overall level of valuations as well. >> so where do we go from here for bitcoin and crypto you know, we talked about a lot of smart investors getting caught up in this. and he made reference to this idea that people get caught up in these founders in sort of the hype around it, in seeing other successful investors go in it almost felt like he was
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referring to a theranos situation or other situations we have seen in the past. they don't do as much due diligence because so many others preceded them. >> there is two different things here there is ftx where you left your money and thought you were -- >> the investor, investing. >> that's just outright fraud, it seems and then there's, as an investor in ftx, you know, as a private equity investor, that's a different thing. that's sort of what you are talking about, right he created an extraordinary persona. i love the sleeping in the office, the attire, you know i mean, he was playing the part, right? >> yeah. >> if he had been driving around in a lamborghini, people would be like, wow, we have to look more closely. >> exactly, yes. but he's this guy in a t-shirt that can't comb his air. his vision, his strategy, yeah.
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>> but investing can be clubby we talk about fomo all the time and it happens in the most sophisticated investor circles and there is the club byness of this we have seen a lot of this in silicone valley. we have seen the biggest investors in the world be involved in the biggest deals in the world. you get to see how crowded these trades are he pointed out the efficacy of block chain is not in question the regulation around a lot of these platforms and tokens that we -- bitcoin is supposed to be replacing vi currencies. what is that that is a vi currency. the printing presses were running or at least they were backing up something that was really supporting something supported by nothing so i think you just get to a place where money is free. a lot of these type events tend to be. when the waves go back out into the ocean, you see what's left on the shore and there is all kinds of metaphors and analogies. i'll save them. >> credit where credit is due.
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welcome back to "fast money. our next guest is making the case for a financial services name he recently added to his watch list let's explain. he's the firm's executive vice president and financial adviser. malcolm, what is your number one reason why you like visa >> yeah. well simply put, this name is the very definition of quality at a reasonable price, right there is some companies that have been hit too hard during the broader market selloff this year, and i see visa as one of them. >> is it cross at the cross border business that attracts you? is it the return to business travel what are the other sort of catalysts here for the stock right now? >> yeah. i have a working thesis that there are some companies that have sold off, quality companies with quality financials that sold off so much that it is giving us a second chance to buy it but at pre-pandemic levels with all the technological
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improvements and any other improvements it made to its payments network in the last two plus years, that is visa if we look at the third quarter alone, they transacted nearly $3 trillion with a capital t worth of payments from uni that's their bread and butter. they get paid every time we swipe our card it is a simple business model. that free cash flow they reported last earnings report, something like $18 billion worth, they may decide to use that on buy backs some time soon they don't carry much debt, if any at all and its earnings continue at double digits. it looks like a great company, solid financials that have gotten beat up and thrown out with the rest of the bath water, so to speak, simply because the market has been selling off so indiscriminately. >> clearly a great franchise for sure but do you think the upside comes from an earnings growth story or a multiple expansiono maybe both
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>> i think more the earnings growth story i think, you know, as we look at consumer spending and we look at the fact that, you know, folks are spending down their savings a little bit folks are talking about pulling back we heard walmart talking about folks trading down and those sort of things but they're still swiping their cards one way or other regardless of through their bank accounts or through credit, visa is getting paid every single time one of those swipes happen. travel hasn't gone anywhere. spending around the holiday season will probably hold pretty steady at least that's the expectation we're told from big box retailers. so it just seems to me that regardless of what direction and how much they actually -- these companies themselves actually earn, visa is perfectly positioned in the middle of it to earn every single time you and i decide we're going to make a transaction. >> when you look at the economy, the obvious question is if people are spending less and
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we're heading into either a mild recession or a deeper recession, is this the place, a, that you really want to be in and then the flip side of the question is, when you look at the thin tech stocks that have been beaten up so bad, would you expect those to rally and pop to more of a degree than what i see to be a rolling over on the chart of the mastercard and a visa >> well, i don't know how much i buy that story about us slowing spending because of that, the pending recession, right i think if we just look at the fact that somebody like a home depot, their total sales volume was down 4% but the average receipt is up 9% we see visa's check is based on the size of that swipe if you looked at that and the fact that home depot should have been negatively impact by the selloff happening in the housing market, yet, they're still talking about rising check
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amounts, even though traffic into the stores themselves volume is down i think that's evidence that those card swipes are still happening, whether it makes sense to us logically or not given everything we know about an impending recession or not. visa also recently filed trademarks related to a crypto wallet given what we have been talking about with ftx and blockfi may end up longer term looking for a safer place to hold. you might want to hang on to visa either way, they're perfectly right there in all of the transaction activity that's happened without having to choose which one of the retailers is going to be the one. >> malcolm, great to see you thanks. >> meantime, taiwan semi shares soaring. the news sparking a blizzard of bullish opportunity in the space. mike, what did you see
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>> we saw more than five times the average daily call volume in taiwan semis and the busiest contract expired at the end of this week. we saw those trading for just under 70 cents buyers of those calls are obviously betting that the rally can continue and we do have other semis that will be reporting in the coming days and weeks. >> all right tune in to the full show that is friday 5:3eaer0 stn. up next, final trades. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn steve? >> alibaba, this one has been pounding look at the chart. you can see it it was declining from october of 2020 broke out of that. started another declining trend line this was a quarter of the value it had at its peak bye. >> mike? >> app materials had a big bump off the bottom. >> connor and i were talking a little bit before, and we decided, you know, some of these great names run up so much
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lululemon. >> good advice, connor connor is tim's son. >> connor, what do you think we should do here >> i think we should trade some nike. >> i think you're right. let's trend a little nike. >> thanks for watching "fast money. connor, i am jim cramer. welcome to med money. i am just trying to help you make some money. not just to entertain but teach you about things like this. call me


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