Skip to main content

tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 21, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EST

6:00 am
2022 it's thanksgiving week all over the world. not really "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today what a morning, joe. we have so much news to get to bob iger news is beyond. trying to think this all through. working on the phones. the dow is off 88 points nasdaq down 91 the s&p is off 20 points i'll show you treasury yields. the 10-year treasury note is at 3.8. the 2-year treasury at 4.5%.
6:01 am
let's talk about mr. iger. >> we are not at 5 yet oil. what is happening there? china. the top story. corporate shakeup at disney. iger is returning as ceo effective immediately. he replaces bob chapek who just got a new contract he came under fire since taking the job in february of 2020. we'll talk about the stock price, andrew. we'll do that in a second. he had it going for a while. he really did. >> he did. >> in a press release, disney said iger agreed to serve as disney ceo for two years he is 71 years old his mandate from the board to set the direction for renewed growth and work closely with the board and developing a successor to lead the company at the completion of his term chapek was ideal last time disney shares popping up $7.
6:02 am
that is not helping the dow. other come poponents are down m. chapek will be paid to sit at home it is a bumpy road stock dropping 30% during the tenure when he started, it was 132. went up to 200 actually first it went down to 80 during the pandemic up to 200. now it is down back below 100. it is down 41% for the year. basically down 30% since he took over it has been mr. toad's wild ride there is a lot of stoppages. 58% more stoppages i don't want to sit on a roller coaster at the top the entertainment.
6:03 am
>> he ran parks. >> yup while that was happening iger paid for the 20th century fox. iger paid for everything, but everything worked out. pixar and marvel let me read the rest of this >> go ahead. >> someone really spent a lot of time on this, andrew i want to finish it. weeks after he officially took the job in 2020, were forced to close the parks. then they announced the reorganization of the streaming division to lose billions. why lose millions when you can lose billions. in july of 2021, they were sued by scar jo over the release of the "black widow" movie. in march, disney and chapek clashed with governor desantis
6:04 am
over the so-called don't say gay bill in june also the company fired the tv content chief peter rice amid tension with bob chapek. earlier this month, disney with misses in the fourth quarter profit warning streaming growth could be in trouble. chapek announced cost cuts iger ran disney for 15 years before backing chapek as successor. iger said he would never come back now he said he was amazed to get the call it happened quickly. i don't think anyone expected it to happen this quickly andrew, it helped when chapek said we will get to this point in 2023 or 2024. as long as the economy doesn't go south never said that apparently before you got -- who knew about streaming and it would be the
6:05 am
new legacy cable i like cable better than streaming now. >> the hard part is bob iger left disney. he gave multiple interviews. this is a tough business becky joked. i'm happy i'm not sitting there. look at the legacy cable business and streaming costs are huge you know, no matter what, there will be huge challenges ahead for bob iger he is a brilliant leader in so many ways. i am hopeful for disney's sake you look at the macro or the trends in this industry and they're tough. it's tough very tough space. >> it seems like a very near term fix and trian doesn't want
6:06 am
iger to come back. we argued about this before. i said isner and that company was lost when isner came in. i think he is the father of -- walt disney is the father of disney isner was amazing. before then, guys killed in helicopter crashes and frank wells and real estate and this crazy stuff. isner ran it well until the end. i did not know iger would turn into a legend. he did in 15 years is this thereturn of steve job at this point? i don't know do you >> it may be the other piece is if he is staying for two years and that is the case, who is the suc succ successor? given so many people that bob iger and the hollywood creative community liked have been pushed aside. i've seen speculation that you could see bob iger try and we
6:07 am
will see it is too early to speculate to go buy the company that kevin may or the other choice at that time actually pushed aside whether you see bob iger acquire other companies to bring kevin may back into the fold >> what i'm taking away is bob iger -- president biden just turned 80. bob iger is a kid. >> spritely. >> i don't know why only two years. he could -- you know where i stand on this. >> i know you do >> i'm looking at -- >> i'm looking at you, andy rooney >> why did he retire he has a comeuple of good years left when people leave too early, it is a waste the opposite of my agent's
6:08 am
brother. zeke thinks you have to hang it up at 75 we have more news to get to. we will talk about disney and bob iger throughout the pro broadcast. we have other news we are following the collapse of ftx. the company owes the largest creditors $3 billion the new chief john ray saying based on the review, we are pleased to learn that many licensed have solvent balance sheets the weekend filing in delaware's bankruptcy court, ftx asking to pay outside vendors to establish new accounts we will talk more about that story in the next hour with
6:09 am
former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton. joe, lots to do on monday morning. who would have thought thanksgiving week would be busy? >> it did. the enron guy who was this is the worst thing i have seen. he walked that back a little on saturday about ftx maybe there is hope for some people to get something back at this point >> yes and no. i thought there's a little bit you have to be a salesman. if you are trying to raise money and get money back to creditors, you have to hope there is money there. i think there are regulated enterprises. we will find out what the other businesses really had. the other people is if you tell people there's nothing there, nobody will pay you for it >> i love the bahamas. the regulatory -- are they pretty good at things? i love going down there. it is laid back. >> by default. that's the business model.
6:10 am
>> i'm wondering we have to work with them. u.s. regulators to figure this all out. i wonder what that looks like in that room. coming up, jim paulson gets us ready for the trading week. look at the dow pre-market gainers. walt disney and bob iger returns as ceo stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit
6:11 am
6:12 am
how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world.
6:13 am
6:14 am
welcome back to "squawk box. futures are down, but not out this shortened week. thanksgiving week. down 78 points nasdaq on the relative basis shedding a little bit more the dow would be down more if disney wasn't up 7 or 8 points s&p has been in an up trend. check out oil prices covid deaths in china. the first in a while have
6:15 am
something to do with that. undert $80 is wti crude. jim paulson is joining us now. jim, thanks for joining us $79 oil should be good it is a tax break for the world. including us the first thing you think about is those are growth years from more lockdowns or longer lockdowns in china how do you view it half empty or full >> i think lower oil prices are good, joe. ultimately they're good. i think they're down in part because of the global economy is slowing and the u.s. will slow as well. you know, the real question isn't whether we're slowing. we are the policy tightening will slow us down in many parts of the world are raiin recession
6:16 am
if we have a recession here, is it a deep recession? we have a shot at a soft landing and if we do assess, it will be a modest recession that is already in the market. i think right now with the fed tightening, any stimulus, lower prices for anything that is a stimulus is a good thing >> if you wait long enough, just about any call you make is going to be right, jim in this case, the past three months, you are on a little bit of a roll since you've been on we were below 3,600 on the s&p you were urging people to stay calm and maybe buy at that point because you didn't think the worst-case scenario would play out. now we're back to 3,965. i did okay in math i'll not figure out what percentage that is it has been pretty good for the s&p. do you think it is a bear market
6:17 am
rally? you think this is a start of something more lasting >> i do. i don't know for sure. i would say this, joe. we're sitting here right now where we were in may we're up from the june lows. we have been basically flat to slightly up for the last six months i think that's interesting it feels like an ongoing bear market someone forgot to tell the s&p because it stopped that is encouraging. i like the leadership we have seen with things that look like a new recovery cyclicals doing better and small-cap stocks doing better. stuff you see at the beginning of the new recovery is encouraging. the biggest thing right now is the bond market. 10-year treasury is starting to ignore the fed i think at some point here what is happening is when recession fear over takes inflation fear,
6:18 am
what you get is more bond buyers than sellers every time the fed talks tough or raises rates, they will lower inflation fear further and raise recession fear more which means the 10-year treasury yield is done going up. when i look back, it is not when the fed stops raising rates that matters for stocks, but when the 10-year treasury stops the 10-year treasury yield stops before the fed and that might have already happened. if it has, boy, i tell you, i think there's pretty good upside in the coming year like a fresh bull market rather than another down leg left in this bear. >> that is pretty amazing. you make a really good point about the 10-year. the 10-year doesn't care the 10-year doesn't speak english. it doesn't matter what jay powell says. it doesn't matter what any of the other people can say
6:19 am
something. people switch around a lot some people are saying that's a new name for me and the market is moving on it. this person or this individual says we may do six or seven terminal yield the 10-year does what it will do based on all of the cpi number and didn't care what jay powell was saying it saw the ppi number. it didn't care about what jay powell said. the bond market is bigger than any fed speaker or fed head. if that signals that we don't raise more, they will not raise more they will follow the 10-year treasury >> they will have to the bond market, joe, since the early '80s, it led every tightening move and easing move prior to when the fed engages in those. it is the leading force. it is already starting to suggest that we're now more worried about recession than
6:20 am
inflation fed. we're no longer going to go up much any more. that is powerful for the stock market, joe. when i look back, i look back to 1965 when you think about inflation right now, at the very least, it is trending lower over the next few years. maybe it will take a while maybe it will be quick, but it is trending lower. i look at downward trending inflation rate or disinflationary period since 1965, that is a powerful force for stocks and bonds it really does well. >> you were playing little league in 1965 you weren't watching inflation numbers. were you >> no. i was playing little league. you are right. >> historically, you looked back at it. okay jim, thank you >> thank you happy thanksgiving >> your dad was running for
6:21 am
president. pat paulson. >> pat >> no relation >> no. >> okay. see you later. coming up, mainland china reporting its first covid death since may sparking investor fears about lockdowns. a live report from beijing we'll bring that next. more on the top corporate story. if you missed it bob chapek is out, fired, from disney replaced by guess who? former boss bob iger we will talk to ben smith when isacafr box" comes bk te th
6:22 am
6:23 am
what if we wanted to electrify all of this... 100% carbon free... is it possible? ♪♪ aes has been leading energy transitions for decades... and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations. even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love and green the planet at the same time?
6:24 am
yes... aes. we're told that success is all about making it on your own. the truth is... need some help? c,mon, get in. nothing great gets done alone. that's why there's shopify. with shopify, you can set up your online store; you can sell on social media; or, you can sell in person, with our point of sale system. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to find success - on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.
6:25 am
welcome back to "squawk box. it is time for the executive edge chinese stocks under pressure after the first covid-19 deaths in months. we have eunice yoon with more from beijing eunice >> reporter: andrew, the beijing district has been in effective shutdown since the weekend with most businesses closed and schools online this is as cases here in the capital have reached about 2,000 in the past two days and as the city reported the first three deaths in the past six months. the situation is worse in the export hub of guangzhou with 9,000 infections they have a lockdown with the populous district and they reported silent mode for much of the rest of the city it has been a little over a week now since the leadership announced easing zero covid or
6:26 am
from what they say optimizing zero covid the national health authority today reiterated mass testing should be targeted and state media had been repeating that china should not have a one-size-fits-all approach for the investors, the contradictory messaging is devolving to the local level. authorities want to appear to adhere to the reopening rules, but at the same time, they are measured as to how closely they get their numbers, infections to zero what happens in effect is it creates a lot of chaos and certainly plenty of uncertainty and confusion over how the policy is supposed to play out
6:27 am
guys >> eunice, what is it like on the ground right now how has it changed >> reporter: it's really, really stressful. it feels very much like how it did back in may when we in beijing thought there was going to be a total lockdown like shanghai currently, i know about four people in the past week, friends or other people, in lockdown or just got out of lockdown in a chinese context, there has been some easing, but what that means is for example, you don't get locked down for ten days you get locked down for six days then that decision is made at the last second. because of that, it just does not get rid of the uncertainty of how to live your life it continues to suppress business activities. i had most of the meetings in the last week canceled everybody is saying the same
6:28 am
thing. >> eunice yoon in beijing this morning. stay safe. i hope things let up a little bit there. thanks, again. joe. andrew, thank you. coming up, planes and trains and automobiles. i miss him john candy phil lebeau will bring us the good, bad and ugly. and ben smith will join us with his take on bob iger re returning as ceo replacing bob chapek stock is down 40% this year. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: executive edge sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go.
6:29 am
well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market
6:30 am
the first time you made a sale online was also the first time you heard of a town named... dinosaur? we just got an order from a dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.
6:31 am
good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc take a look at the futures right now. we are down 77 points on the dow. nasdaq off88 s&p off 20 points.
6:32 am
joe, a lot going on. thanksgiving week, my friend >> we're back on >> we are back on tv live on tv, my friend. >> on thanksgiving week which means the travel industry is bracing for the busiest days of the year phil lebeau covers the industry for us i'll see -- oh, you are not anywhere where you will turn around and say look at all these people sometimes you do that. i never know >> i save that for the special days like the wednesday before thanksgiving don't worry. you will see me at o'hare on wednesday. this week, today, actually, yesterday and today is when it starts to kick in gear with the number of people flying. how many people will be flying according to ihs market is almost as many as we saw before the pandemic up to 4.51 million expected to fly this week. this is just thanksgiving week in terms of what is supposed to
6:33 am
happen the big concern for everyone is both inside and outside of the industry and everyone traveling is will it be a smooth week in terms of traveling the good news is that the airlines have improved staffing since they had a number of issues this year that's good news also, they trimmed the fourth quarter schedules in the last couple months. they are not as ambitious as they were when they had major problems in may, june and july you look at the airline stocks keep in mind we are paying more in air fare. up 10% compared to the same time last year. that really hasn't done much for the airline stocks they're down a decent amount compared to last year. look at the end. the tick there as we show you the smaller airlines, if you will, not the big four they all had a nice move within the last month hard to tell from the chart entirely they are moving higher in the last month because it got better jet fuel prices which are down
6:34 am
fares are going up expectation is this should be a strong holiday travel season we'll get a chance to see the perspective from one ceo coming up later on today on the exchange don't miss the exclusive with barry biffle the ceo from frontier airlines they are offering the go wild all you can fly ticket people have been talking about the last couple days and more they are coming off a major fine from the d.o.t. in terms of not refunding tickets as quickly as expected during the pandemic a lot to talk about with barry biffle >> it is safe to say it is good to be a union airline employee right now, isn't it? aren't there going to be some rich packages? aren't they in the driver's seat >> that's the heexpectexpectati. 100% in the driver's seat.
6:35 am
we have seen airline executives and different airlines and union memberships saying we have a new contract we locked in a pay increase of 15% or 17% or more than 20% in some cases it is rejected by the broader rank and file. whether the pilots or some cases other unions at different airlines i think we get this worked out i say we we watch from the outside watching the airlines and the unions get it worked out some time over the next six months. >> it is part of what we're paying attention to. raw commodities and oil can come down this is going to -- people want to fly so badly and so much pent-up demand >> these guys -- joe, they have been working without a contract for a couple of years. without a contract for the most part the last couple of years. >> remember, when you go into a restaurant and there would be empty tables and they say we're
6:36 am
full we don't need that on the airlines we got flights, but we don't have the people to fly them or the flight attendants or the maintenance people i'm sure they are scrambling >> we went through that earlier this year. >> that eased. the pay raises are still coming. >> they're coming. there is the expectation that is part of the reason the stock is lower higher costs that is part of the reason people are saying hold on. how excited can we be about the future for airline stocks in the near term over the next six-to-nine months >> right we have to pay the maintenance guys we got to pay them what they need we want them showing up. thanks, phil >> you bet okay we have more coming up on "squawk box" this morning. shares of disney are jumping this morning as bob iger returns. returning as ceo we will talk about what it means
6:37 am
for the entertainment giant with media reporter ben smith that's next. later, we will talk to former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton for the latest on the ftx fallout. stay tuned you are watching the one and only "squawk box" here on cnbc w long term either. just a few nights of fun. i'm looking for someone who will let loose, dress up a little, see a show, order the steak, and the lobster. some people say i'm excessive, but who cares. i just want to enjoy some late nights. and some very late checkouts. think you can keep up? if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.
6:38 am
6:39 am
it shouldn't be a concern to
6:40 am
disney shareholders at all any dynamic will have a long term impact. i'm out. he's in. he will manage it as he sees fit with the board under circumstances that are different that existed than i was ceo and chairman we talked. they are changing so rapidly you know, he'll make his own decisions. you know, i hope that he's learned good lessons i believe he has in terms of some of the things i did along the way of what worked and didn't work. i think the relationship i have with him is not really relevant to how effective he is running the company. >> that was bob iger talking to david faber last december. iger waking up as ceo of disney again. joining us more is ben smith somebody who has been covering
6:41 am
this saga and soap opera, ben, between the two bobs, of sorts your initial reaction when you heard the news >> just i was shocked, but not surprised in a way like a lot of people you know, the chapek tenure seemed off the rails, but this is kind of amazing disney is like its own country there are all of these constituencies from the cast members to the board and an element here of domestic political turmoil. >> so just one piece of palace intrigue and the future of disney with bob iger bob iger said in his note last night it was to his own amazement he was in this role. how much do you think this was a function of bob iger campaigning for this role or begged to take the job? >> well, you know, he had been making no secret of his -- of
6:42 am
his -- of his dissatisfaction with bob chapek running the company. iger made the job look easy and chapek made it look hard it is hard a lot of headwinds and tough stuff happening. iger was telling people and members of the board which is really his board people he had hand picked that his successor wasn't doing a good job i'm not sure what he would have expected other than them coming to beg him to return >> ben, bob iger has talked about how challenging the business is and the media space at large with the interviews once he stepped down he talked how lineal the business is. will he turn this around upgrading the stock saying they love bob iger.
6:43 am
what do you think bob iger will do from the practical perspective over the next two years that he says he is in this role >> i think it is really challenging. the things that chapek allegedly messed up with the relationship with the governor of florida and alienating the hollywood creative community those are things you can -- relationship problems you can fix with diplomacy, but doesn't drive your streaming numbers chapek was criticized for totally missing the tone on the earnings call last week after they had a terrible quarter. there are the substantive questions around the pivot to us becoming a streaming company and back i think for a lot of investors and analysts, there is lurking out there the notion that iger has one amazing deal left in him. perhaps that's netflix i think that is in the back of
6:44 am
people's minds >> that's the question is there -- he is obviously famous for making really great deals. is there a deal to be had? i don't know if you saw it read hastingingings had a funnyt i hoped bob iger would run for president as opposed to this >> i don't know what to make of that right. as poorly as disney's stock has performed over the last year, one company which has done a lot worse is netflix it seems like a natural thing to speculate about. the notion that people were going to have infinite subscriptions and streaming service has failed whether they do that is a question. >> the other issue i was going to ask if he is only in the job for two years and saying that up front, it is if the "game of thrones" succession games begins
6:45 am
now as we're talking the question is who is in line does that become an acquisition? you want that hire somebody outside of the company to run it >> iger notoriously had the long line of heirs apparent that were pushed out or departed many of whom now running around the media industry kevin may doing major things also, i think, last time he said he would retire and postponed it by four years. i'm not sure people take that clock dead seriously certainly there is no longer an internal person, particularly with peter rice whom chapek forced out and is gone there is not a successor for iger one of the three or four biggest things he should be doing. >> is that why you are more -- i think a lot of people think there will be an acquisition in
6:46 am
bob iger's future in part because of the business rational and hire talent issue. >> for instance, somebody who has run a great streaming service. >> what do you make -- the other piece is the wall street side of it we're talking about california here and what is going on over there. dan loeb big activist investor. he has been in the stock how much has wall street played in the decision behind the scenes >> i think this is "murder on the orient express." there was pressure from wall street jim cramer played a role in amplifying that. the board was up happy the creative community in hollywood was really unhappy i do think disney rank-and-file
6:47 am
were unhappy with him and wanted bob iger who schmoozed the cast. this is all inward facing to the time to make a change. >> if all of this is true, is this an indictment of the board? it is an all-star board. you look at the board and literally it is the top of the top across corporate america clearly they have been forced into the position of at least admitting, i think, they made a mistake to some degree >> i mean, you know, i think the indictment or celebration will come in a couple of years. it was certainly incredibly disecisive move >> ben smith of semafor. thank you. >> good to see you >> joe coming up, more of that story. disney story breaking including media analyst michael nathanson.
6:48 am
he will join us. we will first talk oil prices now below $8$80. "squawk box" is coming right back ♪♪ for skin as alive as you are...
6:49 am
don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin.
6:50 am
6:51 am
♪ welcome back to "squawk box" this morning wti crude back below $80 a barrel joining us right now, energy aspects founder and director of research good morning to you. we've been watching this fall. i believe in large part because of what we're seeing out of china here do you have any other rational for it >> i think china has been a big
6:52 am
driver and will continue to remain so big because i know there was a little bit of euphoria around the reopening. we've been warning that's a next year spring story. right now lockdowns continues and we have seen china pretty much disappear from the crude market in terms of their buying. that's clearly weighing on the complex. but there's also other factors we have the french refinery strikes that effectively meant that we ended up with about 25 million barrels of crude overhang in europe and so together with really, really high shipping rates out of the u.s., the export arb from the u.s. has been shot for some time and that's effectively why that's weighing on wti because it's backing crude into -- >> hindsight is always 20/20 the saudis look like an opec
6:53 am
plus -- i mean, that looked like a prudent -- it looks like a prudent decision at this point and what about -- do we want to continue to do the spr why are we still releasing oil -- i mean, i know we want prices -- it's nicewhen prices come down, but we may need that some day we're releasing oil at $79 now this is where i thought we were going to start buying it back. both of those moves seem like -- >> absolutely. >> yeah? go ahead. >> geniuses, right opec plus have been warning about weak demand and particularly demand in china and they've been consistently saying that, look, demand is weaker and that's precisely why they said they were going to work on production yes, there have been certain other factors like the refinery strikes. that was unexpected. that made the market weaker than it should have been otherwise. in terms of the spr, we've
6:54 am
argued this for some time, i only should be used when there's a supply disruption. of course the current administration has said that it will continue to use it to influence prices the problem is that the current spr does run through the end of the year and it's just on a program. but you would really hope that after december, new spr releases don't happen unless there's an actual supply disruption we're expecting the european embargo on russian crude, there will be embargoes and we were see that next year but the spr should be used for that >> the question that i've been grappling with is where we think this goes given the issue in china -- i'm looking at the screen here. given just where we are. if we have this conversation, call it, i don't know, six months from now, what do you think the price is really going
6:55 am
to be? >> so many uncertainties china being the biggest one. if china reopens around april, the market is going to be much, much tighter stocks in china are low and we could easily be well above $100 because there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand in china. but if china continues with its current policy and you have the economic headwinds in other parts of the world as well, you could see prices kind of languish around -- i still say 80s and 90s. i think there's a solid floor there. remember every thanksgiving we get a massive flush out in crude prices this is the same thing that's happened right now a lot of people were long and they've kind of come out this isn't just about fundamentals but even if the floor is, let's say, 85, 90 for wti, versus 120, that's a big range and i think that's the trickiest bit right now in terms of forecasting.
6:56 am
so much depends on china and a lot depends on clarity around this eu embargo. the u.s. and the european union haven't provided that as yet >> i want to thank you you are right. there seems to always be this kind of flux at thanksgiving it's a weird time in the energy complex. thanks joe? >> thanks. coming up jm smucker reporting company reports. the ceo is going to join us to talk numbers, food inflation and consumer spending. check out this morning's biggest premarket winners led by dow component disney and it's new ceo bob iger "squawk box" comes right back.
6:57 am
♪ at prudential we think you should say it when things go right too. like, when you score your dream job. sell your business. or discover she's smart... really smart. now what? here's what: you connect with prudential's rock-solid team serving over 50 million people. with investment, insurance and retirement know-how. who's your rock? visit or speak to an advisor today.
6:58 am
6:59 am
♪ good morning we got some big breaking news at the magic kingdom this morning bob chapek, he is out as ceo effective immediately opening the door at the castle for the return of bob iger we're going to break down what it means for investors jm smucker reporting
7:00 am
results. we're going to talk to the ceo about the results, the inflation and the state of the consumer. one central bank head saying he's on board with slowing the pace of rate hikes and its bid to quash inflation that's all coming up as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. becky is off today and the futures down about 88, 90 points or so on the dow nasdaq indicated down almost 100. treasuries looking at some recent 3.83 on the ten year which has become maybe as
7:01 am
important as it used to be when alan greenspan said that's the one thing he wanted to see on the lower right-hand side of our screen i think we're back to that now in terms of importance we just -- market analyst jim paulsonsaid that the fed is less important than what the ten year does and he thinks it's maybe already peaked we shall see only time with tell. oil is under $80 on renewed lockdown fears in china. $79.86 bitcoin desperately trying to hold 16,000. 16,000 down 3% this morning not quite. let's talk about the big story that broke overnight walt disney's board announcing that bob chapek is out he's no longer the company's ceo. he is reappointing bob iger as
7:02 am
ceo. it comes just months after the board agreed to give him that big contract extension just says ago, he announced plans to cut costs, including hiring freezes and layoffs, all of that as he grapples with the disney+ streaming service and weakening economic conditions. chapek's tenure has been a rorock one. the stock down 30% since he was named ceo in late 2020 after that, disney was forced its theme parks due to the pandemic disney announced a large reorg to put a bigger focus on its streaming ambitions. in july of 2021, disney was sued by scarlett johansson over the streaming release of her movie
7:03 am
and then in march, tensions with florida governor and misses for fourth profit and key revenue segments warning that streaming growth could thin here's a statement this from the newly appointed ceo bob iger saying he's thrilled to return and extremely optimistic about disney's future he led disney for 15 years, including pixar, lucas films and the launch of disney+. iger will work as ceo for two years, they say, in a bid to set a strategic direction and to work closely with the board to find a successor it is all quite the turn of events since iger spoke with
7:04 am
david faber just about one year ago. >> it shouldn't be a concern to disney shareholders at all any dynamic between us would have an impact on the company long term. i'm leaving. he's in. it's his company he's going to manage it as he sees fit with the board. under circumstances that are very different than existed when i was ceo and chairman they're changing so rapidly. and yooel make his own decisions and i hope that he's learned good lessons i believe that he has in terms of -- some of the things that i did along the way. what worked and didn't work. i think the relationship i have with him is not really relevant to, you know, how he -- how effective he is running the company. >> so, joe, now the game of succession or game of thrones, that's a warner brothers hbo show -- or shows, begins in
7:05 am
ernest the question, of course, is, a little bit of what ben was saying in the last hour, who takes over is there a big acquisition in bob iger's future? is a big acquisition part of bringing in a successor and what does he do to maybe bring back some of the talent that either left or, by the way, now that there's so many other companies that have let people go, you think of all the folks who have left warner brothers discovery recently or even some of the people who left viacom you can go down the list does he have the firepower at this point, especially as both the company and the industry are struggling to actually try to attract some of that talent back to disney. >> i think i would do less i don't know what i would do with espn. i think about that people have thought maybe there's something to that. i don't know disney+. do you stay with overall -- you know, general entertainment or refocus in on what they do so well with kids entertainment.
7:06 am
it's not going to be the behemeth like people thought i don't know what i would do with -- and the theme park disney is still great too. i might -- i go all the way back, do you remember touchstone that's where they did down and out in beverly hills all of this adult fare and they really know kids they know pixar. they have great assets here. i'm not sure i would be trying to find hits in the adult world, so to speak. >> but they bought fox and fx and all of those sets for a reason and that was to capture that adult fare. one of the questions i've heard about this morning talking to just a number of people is, does this change the dynamic around
7:07 am
hulu, the future of hulu bob chapek has been public about wanting to own that asset to buy stake in that asset eventually brian roberts talked about how much he would have like to buy that asset does that possibility open up in this new bob iger regime we'll see. >> which way does that finally go does brian roberts want it as much as he wanted it before? i don't know. >> that's another question we're in an environment where the economics may not be what they used to do, at least the fever dream of everybody chasing netflix. >> discovery is going to be hbo, right? that goes together with hulu and peacock? >> that was always the idea. again, though, so much of the business at hulu is now
7:08 am
integrated with fox and fx and so manof sets that bob iger did buy it's hard to see bob iger want to let go of that asset i would imagine. as disney has talked about, if they were to sell that asset, i think they would put it up for auction. you could have a real sort of buying war for that asset. it's going to be something to watch. >> i used to have a little bit of -- what's the word? i got to look it up. schadenfreude. there was an english word i was going to start using and sounding smart i used to have taia little bit schadenfreude with disney. i don't feel that anymore. i don't feel that anymore because it's kind of an industry-wide -- it's a daunting
7:09 am
business all of a sudden if i don't want disney to do well -- there used to be some competition because there's similar companies in ways. >> but, by the way, you know -- here's a little sympathy for bob chapek this morning. the stock is down 30%. but look at the rest of the industry it's not like there's some -- it's not like there's any standout among the group that has somehow outperformed the others in some remarkable way. that's not to say that directionally disney was necessarily going in the right direction. but i think a lot of people are looking at how do you measure the performance during that period clearly the board was unhappy and clearly hollywood was unhappy. let's talk more about all of this. >> i want to tell you the word if you can say it and remember it. >> okay. >> eppicarakacy.
7:10 am
people love schadenfreude. lie like pretending they speak a foreign language it's the same thing in english i'm no longer going to feel any of that when disney goes down -- >> that's the english equivalent of schadenfreude -- >> i don't think i'm getting it right. epicracacy >> we want to talk much more about the shake-up and we will in just a bit with disney follow follower jeff sonnenfeld and james stewart. >> thanks. let's get to dom chu it's an important word to learn.
7:11 am
because some people take satisfaction seeing other things that are miserable we probably -- >> epicaricacy is this idea of misery loves company, right? >> it's not good for a person. >> no, no, no. i think it will consume you. i tend to be a more positive person so there's no epicaricacy. >> i'll get you to some of these movers and i'm going to cap things off with a look at what we were talking about here let's start off with other movers in the market this morning. china-related stocks right now in focus we spoke this last hour with eunice yoon about the renewed lockdowns that are happening there. the three deaths in covid in china. because of that, many of the
7:12 am
u.s.-traded chinese tech stocks especially in the nasdaq 100 are taking a hit right now you can see is down 5%. pin duo duo down you've got the big casino operators, wynn resorts down all of it happening with renewed concerns about whether the lockdowns in china are going to lead to a more global slowdown wti down one other place to watch amid slow downs to talk about is what's happening with shares of williams sonoma right now which are down 2% premark. we're going to look to see if that's going to pick up after barkley downgraded both of those
7:13 am
to a more equal rate they cite a number of different things amongst them, a slowing housing economy and possibly weakening demand especially in the high end of things if market turmoil keeps going. watch williams sonoma. thinly traded right now and then one other place to watch, of course, andrew, the headline this morning with regard to disney disney shares popping up 8% on this down 35% over the course of the last year as bob chapek gets ousted at disney only to be replaced by bob iger coming back to the magic kingdom we're keeping a close eye on the entire media industry right now. as you point out, andrew, many of these companies in the media world have had nothing really but downside over the course of the last 12 to 18 months does disney really stand out there? maybe not so much on the
7:14 am
downside i'll send things back over to you. >> okay, dom chu, thank you for that report. meantime, speaking over the weekend, we got to talk about this one bostic saying he's ready to move away from three quarters of rate hikes at a fed policy meeting. steve liesman, this is big news. what's going on? >> yeah, andrew. those companies from the atlanta fed president are the only dovish type of comment that fed officials seem to be making these days the consistent message has been that they'll likely step down to 50 basis points in december. that is slower but not lower as bostic said, maybe just -- the fed has to do another 75 to 100 basis points of tightening you can see all of this in the fed funds futures. they start the week with the peak rate above 5% having traded below it on better inflation data before that rising on hawkish fed speak and
7:15 am
better economic data it's priced right around 440 so despite the holiday shortened week, plenty of -- tomorrow, estimator, george and bullard. all of whom spoke last week. and then you get jobless claims and durable goods. fed minutes will be watched very closely this week and the reason is to understand a gap between a dovish statement and an unflinchingly hawkish fed chair jay powell most of the fed speak sounded like the chair and maybe because the data came in stronger than forecast susan collins tells me that she thinks they could escape this cycle without large-scale unemployment. >> i do see a pathway in which we're able to do that without needing to increase unemployment more than some modest amount i'm not going to put numbers on
7:16 am
that at the same time, i'm very realistic. there are a lot of risks there are no certainties here. >> all right contrast that with kansas city'sescity's esther george who said she doesn't think they're able to come out of it without for painful policies. >> when we come back, what do we got? i think this is going to be fun. >> peanut butter and jelly time. good numbers from jm smucker he's going to discuss the company's quarterly results. the stock moving higher after the results were solid and then bob iger returning to disney, apparently, replacing bob chapek we'll find it out what it means for the magic kingdom according to everyone we can find a way in on it. "squawk box" will be right back.
7:17 am
>> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise the world's leader in crypto index funds.
7:18 am
well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest.
7:19 am
i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about. if you run a small business, you need the most from every investment. that's why comcast business gives you more. more innovation... with our new gig-speed wi-fi, plus unlimited data. more speed... from the largest, fastest, reliable network... and more savings- up to 60% a year with comcast business mobile. all from the company that powers more businesses than any other provider. get started with fast speeds and advanced security for $49.99 a month for 12 months. plus ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. six-year highs, almost jm smucker out with earnings moments ago. raising its full-year forecast joining us now is mark smucker,
7:20 am
up for the year. that's no small faet eat right there. six-year high indicated with the stock. looking up about $4 on these numbers, mark. not everyone knows it's pet strong, coffee strong. >> yes, sir, joe thank you for having me. it's been another great quarter for us and all of our brands have performed exceptionally well across our entire coffee portfolio, pet snacks, milkbone, meow mix doing well, and then our uncrustables >> those are good. i them, they don't like. they always seem fresh and peanut butter and jelly is a
7:21 am
great thing. i recommend them, the calorie intake is a little bit high. you did have to raise prices, that helped offset some higher input costs across the board, right, mark? >> yes, sir. we have been very prudent as we've thought about passing along inflation. recognizing the consumer has struggled a little bit over these last couple years with input costs up we've been taking a very prudent approach to how we pass along pricing. our portfolio we offer products and brands across the entire value spectrum and so consumers generally can find something that fits their budget and their needs across our entire portfolio. >> some analysts, i don't know what their problem is necessarily, if they -- the underperform rating, i saw something from, i don't know, someone is maintaining a sell rating
7:22 am
goldman sachs, that was last month, what's the problem there? is it food inflation or are you not being able to pass it along? you can't speak for the analysts, obviously, but what do you worry about considering that it's one of the few stocks that we ever mentioned that's up for the year >> yeah, you know, joe, we continue to be laser focused on our strategy we've been very thoughtful about re reshaping our portfolio, ensuring that the resources that we have in dollars and people we're putting against our biggest bets if you look at uncrustables and refocusing our pet portfolio on pet snacks with milkbone and meow mix has been successful and our coffee portfolio, across that full value spectrum, we're really focused on executing our strategy we've remained on shelf very
7:23 am
well throughout the entire pandemic and that execution has really allowed us to succeed quarter after quarter. >> we hear about trading down across the board you can almost find a way that people can trade down in retail, food, everything else. do people do that with pets? were you ready for that? are there luxury pet products that people splurge on and do they -- does that change in a tough operating environment or a slowing economy? >> you know, a lot of times people treat their pets better than their own kids, right >> that's what i was getting at, i think. the kids got to -- the kids got to have maybe have the hamburger helper, but the pets still get the good stuff that's insane. >> that's another point about our portfolio, again, is just making sure that our portfolio
7:24 am
is in advantage categories that generally don't experience the same level of tradedown. but there is some of that. that's why we have brands like ca kibbles and bits there is premium there is all of that and we play in all of those segments. >> a quick action with some issues at jif and a strong dollar you got to worry about that as well those are under control and you're back to almost six-year highs. good job, well done. >> thank you jif, we did have a recall earlier this year. we're very pleased to say we are back on shelf, all items are back on shelf. we regained our number one share position with about a 40% share. and we've actually gained points of distribution.
7:25 am
>> okay. mark smucker, thanks hope to see you in the near future, if not next quarter. maybe the quarter of that. thanks for coming on today appreciate it. >> appreciate it thank you. coming up, we're going talk disney disney shares surging this morning after the ceo shake up bob iger returning, bob chapek out. take a look at the s&p "squawk box" is coming right back
7:26 am
7:27 am
vo: ferrari knows racing. palantir knows data. bonded by engineering excellence.
7:28 am
palantir. data driven enterprise accelerator. still to come, bob iger returning to the ceo of the magic kingdom. plus jay clayton on the latest from the ftx fallout stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this icns bc
7:29 am
7:30 am
7:31 am
look, the world is changing dramatically and it's important for the ceo of a company to address all of those changes rapidly. bob is going to address them probably differently, perhaps, than i may have. but that's neither good nor bad. i think change -- i think generally speaking, change is good change isn't necessarily bad >> got a major management shake-up at disney bob chapek is out as ceo and bob iger is returning to the magic kingdom. he's going to take the ceo role for two years to help the company develop a new successor. the stock hitting a 52-week low earlier this month the stock has been upgraded with a $120 price target.
7:32 am
moffettnathanson he applauds the board for making that change joining us right now to talk more about the leadership changes inside the mouse house, the yale school of management professor and "new york times" columnist james stewart, the author of "disney wars" and the author of a story over the weekend about a merger of time warner and the drama that was at&t we'll talk about that another time i want to get your reaction, though, if i could i'll start with you, jim stewart. you've written about and followed the drama, the saga of what is disney what happens now >> you're right. the drama just never seems to end in this magic kingdom. this is a surprise, i think, because it looked like chapek
7:33 am
had survived the latest challenges but what i'm hearing is, this came as a shock to many of my sources and nevertheless the last earnings report where there was a miss really across the board and the streaming situation only seems to be getting worse looks like it was the last straw >> jim, i want to get to jeff in just a second. speak to this, the succession planning, it starts now. i was saying earlier, the game of thrones begins now. do you imagine seeing bob iger trying to bring back talent who left, hiring talent who has walked out the doors of the viacoms, discoveries of the world. or somebody who spent a lot of time making acquisitions, do you see him making one more big one that includes the hire of the next ceo >> those are all great
7:34 am
questions. i think there will be personnel changes. one of the criticisms that i've heard for some time now about chapek was his -- you know, it was not his strength at picking people some people were there and have continued and done very well some of his choices have drawn a lot of criticism i think with iger, we're going to see some significant personnel changes and probably some reorganizations that -- chapek-led reorganization led to morale issues and criticism. i think he'll undo a lot of that one of iger's strengths is he knows the hollywood talent pool very well from his years there he's been gone for a brief time. he has a very good sense of that and there are many ex-disney people out there, some who have left recently. he does know that the group of talent out there
7:35 am
and we will see him bringing some new material in there all of that said, the succession planning begins now, let's be honest, the succession planning should have begun a long time before now the iger departure still has never been fully explained the process in which chapek was picked never was entirely clear. there was doubts and criticisms in the beginning and bringing iger back now suggests there isn't a deep bench at disney. >> grade this board and grade iger given that this was his chosen successor and this is the same board who chose him >> that's the -- bob iger gets an "a" plus on everything excep succession
7:36 am
kevin mayer, the knock on him was he did all of these great deals of marvel and lucas, but had he really been an operator was he really good on execution? he had the chance to do that, prove himself at tiktok, but sadly, he got scared off because of the china overlay on that i don't know if he'll go there we hear about peter rice being forced out by -- i guess seen as a threat by chapek and it's not because he was paranoid. he's a fox superstar that they brought in was disparaging chapek and so -- he was running television so there are some alternatives to look at there but the board has not done well in succession. and jim stewart is exactly right. this has been a problem for quite a long while i've been in touch with chapek through much of this period but not last night and in touch with
7:37 am
iger for a long time, and was joking with them, one of the best farewell gifts was to throw him under the bus. b maybe iger is giving the same gift to bob chapek. >> when you think about what bob iger can do over the next two years, or longer if you believe he ultimately stays longer, what do you see him doing given the hand that he now has, much of the hand was his own creation originally we talked earlier in the broadcast about the future of hulu and that chess piece in all of this. potentially other acquisitions ben smith was mentioning the possibility of ultimately a tie-up with netflix. >> well, i've said it on this program before, disney faces problems that go beyond any one chief executive. and it's not chapek's fault that the largely untested streaming model that was iger's strategy
7:38 am
to go all in on was pretty much untested and there's now growing investor disenchantment with the massive capital investment that's requiring and the limited payoffs. just think for a moment that, you know, subscribers are paying something like -- many cases $150 a month and now they're paying 5 or $6 a month for disney+. that's a huge gap. and nobody benefitted more from the deteriorating cable model than disney. and that is a serious problem going forward. is scale the answer? that's always been the conventional wisdom? if you look at disney's recent earnings, the bigger disney+ gets, the more money it's been losing in this arms race to keep up with the very deep pocket of netflix, amazon, you can throw apple into that mix. the sports rights are now up for
7:39 am
grabs. everybody wants to get into that space. disney faces some tremendous issues here. could they merge with netflix? i don't think they could in this current antitrust regime disney is in the big three of streaming. i think it would be very difficult to do any kind of direct acquisition in that space. >> i'll throw one more out you used to hear this one all the time apple. what do you see? >> well, you want me to take that one >> both of you can take it it's been something obviously we've all speculated about for a very, very long time if ultimately two or three years from now an exit is needed, they don't have the same overlap that a netflix or basically anybody else would >> you're right. >> but they have the problems of big tech >> they're much more feasible than one of the real giants in streaming, on the other hand, i
7:40 am
think regulatory issues there, the side of a disney apple combination. and apple has so far never wanted to touch this amount of -- owning a broadcast network, i think there would have to be some major divestitures and rearrangements for that to work. >> i agree, i think it's unlikely bob iger knows them very well. he was a successful board member for quite some time. i think the netflix deal, if you look at the numbers, it looks staggering twice the price of what they paid for fox netflix is down 70%. if you're ever going to get netflix, this is a good time disney+ has done well with subscribers. the stock was $24 a share and he took it up to $140 a share under his 15 years amazing tour of duty nobody has been more successful. this is a great example of substance and style interchanged
7:41 am
and intertwined. so many that bob chapek got wrong, he's a decent guy, he was learning, but learning slowly along the way, how to recover. it was not just the don't say guy issues where he managed to be everybody's enemy but the surprise maneuvers last week on the earnings call that he didn't reveal, even his own hr vp was surprised when he commen commented on the layoffs it's a good board, though, mary barra and others are strong players on this board. but i think that they've got strategic options there that -- espn has been a strength for them and number one cable operation. >> jeff, we want to thank you. we want to thank jim stewart it sounds like there might be a sequel you might have a sequel now. >> you may be right. >> thanks, guys.
7:42 am
we'll talk to you soon. when we come back, the price of bitcoin extending its november losses this morning hovering right around $16,000. this has investor confidence continues to get tested. we're going to speak to jay clayton after the break. at the top of the hour, more of this week's shortened trading session with jeremy siegel new retinol overnight means the smoothing benefits of retinol are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin.
7:43 am
7:44 am
7:45 am
over the weekend, ftx announced it launched a strategic review of its assets globally and are preparing the business for sale. according to multiple reports, sam bankman-fried's businesses owe more than $3 million to its creditors. joining us now is jay clayton. he's a member of the board at american express since last week -- since the last time we spoke to you, we saw the new ceo say never seen anything this bad. but he tempered that a little. maybe he realizes he's got a dog in this race at this point and he said maybe there are some viable businesses, maybe we -- some people will be made whole what do you make of all that,
7:46 am
jay? >> look, joe we're learning what a lot of people have been saying for a long time which is offshore financial institutions or institutions that are purporting to be financial institutions just don't have any of the basic protections that we have here in the u.s. customer funds are not segregated, leverage is not regulated, the ability to engage in multiple conflicting activities is unfeathered and that's what he saw when he got there. in addition to the lack of records and governance if you look closely at what you're seeing around this situation, the entities that are regulated, some of the entities inside of the united states and some of them are not in the bankruptcy estate, they look to be some of the most solvent and the most valuable going forward. look, i'm sure there's value to be derived there you've got the right guy on the job and then looking to either
7:47 am
operator liquidate or a combination of both to get the maximum value. but the real lesson here is, financial entities operating outside the united states particularly not in jurisdictions that we know well. your retail investor should stay -- >> we still don't know the -- i don't know, the system in the bahamas well there's a lot of companies that are there. is it still kind of a black box down there are they frenemies we have to work together in this case on this, though. >> of course, we have to work together one of the things about regulation is there's regulation in words and then there's regulation in action and this is not to be critical of any jurisdiction. but regulation and action isn't just after the fact regulation, it's monitoring. here in the u.s., the federal reserve, other banking regulators, they have people on site every day the securities and exchange
7:48 am
commission, they inspect investment advisers, finra inspects broker dealers on an ongoing basis. that doesn't happen to the same extent in other areas. that's something that needs to be well understood. >> what should an investor do if he wants to make an investment in -- where those safeguards aren't in place? just be ready to take your licks? >> i don't think it's be ready to take your licks the level of risk depends on your channel of access if your channel of access is through what i would say is a u.s. regulated intermediary, whether it's an investment adviser fund or the like, that's a safer way to do it than doing it on your own on an unregulated platform >> jay, the thing that i've been grappling with, trying to just figure out what to do about is, we keep talking about how do you incentivize these folks, the crypto exchanges and the like,
7:49 am
on shore, back into the u.s. and yet here we have an issue where i think there's some serious questions about the underlying assets that therefore trade on those exchanges you've had questions about whether they're securities, commodities, what they really are. does it matter is it -- are we better off just bringing all of this stuff on shore to the extent we can and creating what might otherwise be described as a pretty permissive regulatory environment to that maybe certain things like this don't happen, but maybe other things do, or are we better with this sort of heisman approach that we've had thus far? >> the answer to your first question is, absolutely not. we should not have regulation bend there's a regulatory environment in the u.s. has produced the most vibrant economy, the best opportunity the world has ever seen and you shouldn't bend that regulatory framework for a new form i'm saying new form.
7:50 am
not new exposure a new form of financial instrument absolutely not but does this situation demonstrate something that has happened in the u.s. it certainly does. broad-based public raising of capital is extremely highly higd to be a public company in the u.s., absent some idiosyncratic circumstances, you have to be a $2, $10 billion company to get over the hurdles of all of that regulation now, has that done really well for large companies? yes. do we have an alternative for smaller companies looking to raise money from the general public we have some very limited ones those need to be explored and expanded, but they do include all the basics of audited financial statements, good governance, disclosure of your business, risk, all of that.
7:51 am
we shouldn't be pushing any of that aside for broad-based capital raising. i don't think you'll find anybody who would take the other side of that >> the way the coins were valued, obviously that played into all of this but is this specific to crypto is it specific to companies that do business outside the u.s. this could have happened to anyone, couldn't it? >> joe, i think it's specific to human nature through the ages. >> so then if we move more quickly toward finally getting crypto regulated, and i don't know what that looks like, that wouldn't have prevented this anyway, would it >> yes, i do think that -- let me put it this way, i do think that if we had more global cooperation you would have had less of this but any time you have a new
7:52 am
technology, the fear of missing out and lack of regulation, things like this happen. we've seen it through the ages i describe some of the activity offshore as the bizarre with the scope and breadth of the internet of course there's going to be issues. >> we talked to te-- could you have done anything more quickly at the fcc >> i'm very proud of the women and men of the s.e.c we saw this ico craze in 2017 and 2018, we cracked down on that in the united states. the regulatory cooperation is an area where there's room for improvement. you have stablecoin operating now. it is global, it is large, it is relied upon in a lot of places and it's not regulated we need to know if you're using a stablecoin that it's truly stable now, our counterparts around the
7:53 am
world are not the most motivated people in the world to regulate a dollar-based financial product but this is a place where cooperation among the fed, treasury, the s.e.c., to define what you need to have to be a true stablecoin, whether it's backed one to one with cash, maybe high quality liquid assets, that's a place where there's room for action. >> is this the beginning of an unraveling of the entire ten-year love affair that technology has had with crypto, or will we get through this and watch bitcoin do what it's going to do? >> the technologyis proven to be an efficiency enhancer without a doubt. >> very good good to have you on. >> great to see you. >> that was pretty good. you're coming out of your shell. >> happy thanksgiving.
7:54 am
major management shakeup at disney bob chapek is out as ceo after taking the job in february of 2020 bob iger returns to the magic kingdom. i'm interested to see what david faber's thoughts are on this did you always think there was a way back for -- he's not necessarily your friend, but you know him well. did you think there was a way back, david? >> no, it seemed highly unlikely certainly you would have to imagine a scenario like the one that has played out. we can talk a bit more about that but even with the idea that his successor, mr. chapek, would not succeed, so to speak, the idea that bob iger would come back, i think even as little as a few weeks ago, joe, i think would have been hard to imagine. i really do. that's part of the stunning part of this, that he has come back into that job. he was, by all accounts, quite
7:55 am
happy being retired, but obviously making investments in private equity, giving speeches, spending more time with his grandkids. i think mr. iger has indicated to many people over the last year or so, not even quite a year, that he was quite pleased with the world as it was for him. so the idea that he would be willing to step back in, i think, was unexpected. but this was a board, joe, that felt like it didn't have a lot of choices at this point, is my understanding. after speaking to a number of people close to the situation, this came together pretty quickly but the board did have concerns for some period of time those concerns were heightened, of course, after this most recent earnings report it was not a well received report the conference call was not well thought of the losses associated with direct-to-consumer obviously having grown, even though the promise to be profitable by
7:56 am
fiscal year '24 remains. the board got more and more concerned. that board let by miss arnold, made it clear to mr. chapek last night that he was out. my understanding they only approached iger on friday, friday night, and sealed a deal to bring him back as of last night, and that they did not really -- even though they had been aware there was growing concern and problems, including loot dysfunction in upper management, the board did not really consider or have a lot of other candidates that they truly were seriously considering and i'm also told as well that while they may have identified some internal candidates who they believe over time could take the job, they did not want to put anybody in that position right now, given all the different pressures, joe, that they're dealing with right now at disney. >> i can see what you're saying,
7:57 am
david. grandkids, i don't have any, but i look forward to that and that would be fun and speeches and hobbies and stuff like that. i'll bet you it's pretty cool to be the ceo of disney if you live in hollywood, though and i'll bet you he remembers how cool that is he used to take big swings, david. would he do that or is he just back to stabilize things >> you know, that's a great question, joe. i think initially it's stabilize, i think it's give hope and optimism to the organization, which has been a bit beaten down, at least there are those who have told me that. i'm sure mr. chapek would disagree with that characterization but give some hope, give some optimism, stabilize things but then it's two years. iger, i think, may be looking at that two years as that's another reason he took the job i know i've got a finite amount of time, i'll help the board
7:58 am
identify and train my successor. but there's tough decisions they have to make not just disney but across the board. all these companies that saw the netflix multiple three, four, five years ago and decided to pivot very strongly to direct-to-consumer are now faced with the sudden realization that getting it profitable, getting profitable in this business is not that easy. there are going to be tough decisions for iger, no doubt about it but he won't shy away from them, is my sense. >> let's talk m&a for a second because he was a prolific and very successful dealmaker over the years. we were talking the last hour, does he ultimately try to buy netflix, could he if he wanted to, what happens to the chess piece that is hulu, something they've said is not for sale but brian roberts, the ceo of our network, has said he would love
7:59 am
to buy do you ultimately try to sell to an apple could you have you fnted to? do you try to buy the production company that kevin maher started? how do you see the chess board even there are a couple of other assets that might be interesting. >> listen, as you point out, mr. iger is not someone who shied away from m&a. much of his tenure was defined by the big deals, starting with pixar and ending with fox. but, you know, my sense right now is his main concern is going to be making some tough decisions as it is dealing with cost and dealing with direct-to-consumer, not to mention, also, some other issues on sports and espn and not necessarily focused on, as you point out, m&a
8:00 am
kevin maher's production company sounds unlikely to me, although, again, who would have thought that iger would be coming back but you're right, there is a belief overall that there's still needs to be consolidation amongst many of these streamers to create the possibility of real profitability in the business, although disney is one of the companies that does have the scale at this point, many believe, to succeed. i would point out as well, hulu is an interesting question they're going to have to spend a lot of money to acquire what they don't already own, roughly 33% that our parent company owns of hulu, and that's going to lever them up even more. that will get them closer to three times, which is not the five times that warner brothers and discovery trades at. this is not the easiest company to come in and deal with right now, which is why, again, the board turned to iger and no one else.
8:01 am
>> right and even though it was the first time they said it when chapek copped to the we don't know what the economy is going to look like and that could make a difference bob iger is facing the same economy that -- disney is still looking at what could be tough advertising. there's a lot of macro issues. just because bob iger is back, they don't solve themselves. i'm looking at the way they're doing things, it seems to be a time to retrench and say we got out over our skis on this whole streaming business. >> i think that's true, joe. disney is spending -- chapek more or less admitted during our last interview because they haven't given a specific number, but i think it's close to $16 billion direct-to-consumer and $30 billion on content, that includes espn programming.
8:02 am
that's a huge number, $16. and the question for all of these direct-to-consumer companies, and warner brothers discovery is dealing with the same kind of pressures, can you maintain that and will it happen netflix at this point hasn't really backed off. but there's no doubt that's got to be a part of the tough decisions that are probably coming for him >> we've got to go andrew, do you got something fast >> i just have one question, which we were talking about dan loeb earlier, by the way, carolyn epperson joins the board today. how do you think wall street is going to be able to influence or not bob iger, maybe in ways that they could or couldn't under chapek >> listen, he's just a better communicator overall and i think that skill at the top of this
8:03 am
company is vitally important and it's one that mr. chapek did not seem to have an in abundance so i would expect that there will be a level of some communication, perhaps, that will be beneficial that said, loeb, they had nothing to do with this. they were not involved at all with this. i think it was news to them as it was to many others. but they'll be there to pressure, potentially. and i think, apparently, they were aware they were hanging around there are general reports they may want to go up in size. not insignificant in terms of continued pressure he's got enough pressure on him from the board right now, as i said, the main issue is just trying to re-establish stability and a sense of hope and optimism at the company. >> it would be tough for us to hang around the hoop, wouldn't it i don't think i can touch the bottom of the net, even,
8:04 am
anymore, without one of those -- could you hang around the hoop >> first of all, you know how tall i am to begin with. >> your son could. >> my son can stuff. i've seen it happen. >> he can dunk >> yeah. >> it's called genetic recombination. and thank you for kroger, that's nice that's a cincinnati-based company. look over your left shoulder, that is unbelievable other shoulder they couldn't get a better ad placement if they tried. >> there it is >> we thank you for that >> you're welcome. all for you, joe i still try to find ways to connect with you. >> very good thank you. good morning, again. it's 8:04 on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box," live from the nasdaq marketsite
8:05 am
in times square. there's news, sorkin i'm joe kernen along with andrew sorkin with disney up 9, that shows you the other 29 components aren't able to offset -- are able to offset that positivity in disney and still be lower, at least lower so far >> let's get over to mike santoli because we've got to talk markets as we kick off what is a shortened holiday trading weekend. mr. santoli joins us from the new york exchange. just a stone's throw from where mr. faberis this morning. >> i see him through the post. thanksgiving week historically leads to the upside if that matters. for the last ten days you take a look at the s&p 500, it's been hesitating around the 4000
8:06 am
level, backed off from there a little bit but it's kind of holding onto the majority of that run we've gotten off of the mid-october lows people will say sentiment and seasonality have supported this rally. you've had a little bit of stabilization on the earnings outlook as companies have reported but nothing has changed the fact quite yet that we still have the downtrend it seems like there's a decision point above, if in fact we start to get there on a six-month basis we've basically been flat, a little up on the s&p if apple performed in line with the rest of tech it would have taken a full percentage point off of the s&p 500 over this span of time industrials doing well energy, naturally, it looks like it's a little tired and pulling back financials have also helped. so it just sort of shows you've had one of the worst first halves in generation in terms of
8:07 am
stock and bond performance, and yet since then it seems to have discounted a pretty bad scenario and we've stabilized take a look at the credit side of things. that's something else that also looks less bad than not too long ago. this is the high yield etf and treasury etf of comparable maturity it's still not the most positive trend, but i think the big key is that things were considered to be pretty bad in a stagflation and panic middle part of the year and you've gotten slight bits of reassurance as the fed tries to price into next year. >> thank you always good to get your perspective on what will be a shortened week we'll see how volatility really is when we come back, a lot more on the collapse of ftx. we're going to talk about it live from the center of it all, in the bahamas and next, jared bernstein is
8:08 am
going to talk to us about the economy, inflation, and what he thinks can and can't be done when cgroness reconvenes you're watching "squawk" and this is cnbc the holidays are here. and dick's sporting goods has all the best gifts for everyone on your list. the hottest footwear from jordan, nike, and hoka. and the coolest apparel from all the best brands. plus must-have gifts from yeti, callaway, and the north face. when you're running short on time, shop, where one hour pick up is always an option.
8:09 am
and with our best price guarantee, if you find a lower price - we'll match it. this season, give the gift of sport. every holiday starts at dick's. what if “just an idea” could become a family tradition? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ just look around. as you plan, protect and retire. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it
8:10 am
and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. a big week for consumer spending we have food shopping for thanksgiving, black friday sales, and retail earnings from the likes of best buy, dick's sporting goods and nordstrom
8:11 am
our next guest says inflation remains the top priority joining us, white house economist, jared bernstein, a member of the council of economic advisers. i just want to start asking -- wow, i wish i could pull that off, that look, but i can't. i just want to ask you, jared, about the ten-year we've been talking about this all day. do you think the ten-year could pre-empt the fan's best laid plans? if the bond market says we're going to stay at 3.8, the ten-year, do you think they could moderate or they would have to modify their plans for how high they go, jared? that's the real market, isn't it >> well, you know, this is the kind of thing that when i was a chin-flapping pundit we could talk about all day now that i represent the white house, we take fed independence as critically important.
8:12 am
i will say, though, just to give you a tidbit, that the fed is obviously deeply committed to being the first and foremost inflation fighter. that's something president biden has endorsed and he has stayed way out, just as i've suggested i'm going to do, too. and i don't think that tweaks or bips or bops in any variables are going to get them off track. i think the key variables are inflation itself and to some extent the labor market and wage growth, which they're watching very closely most of us tend to think that the interest rate, market interest rates are pretty endogenous to fed actions at a time like this. >> it would be great to say we have oil under $80 a barrel. i know how closely you watch that and it filters through the economy and helps with inflation. but we need, love them or hate
8:13 am
them, the regime in china, globally we need china to be reopened eventually. this is not a great reason for oil to be down how do you look at that? what do you advise the president as far as that goes? is it good, is it bad? >> yeah, it's an important question first of all, we're very happy to see some breathing room at the pump, especially around the holidays i just looked at the number this morning from aaa, $3.66 a gallon of course that's down from a peak of over $5 a gallon in mid-june so that's real breathing room. and you asked, of course, about this global price, which is critically important not just in the sense of china, but also, of course, given the war in ukraine, commodities are very much affected by global geopolitics. the president was just talking to president xi and i'm not going to get into foreign policy details, but part of the
8:14 am
conversation was about global commodities, making sure, particularly in the areas of food, energy, also climate change, making sure we're working together on behalf of our people so we can still have the kinds of complex geopolitical arrangements and conflicts that i'm not going to talk about because it's not my portfolio, and work with our partners to try to get the best deal for the american middle class. that's what we've certainly been doing when it comes to supply chains, when it comes to commodities. >> so you're an economist but because of your new job, you even had trouble just giving me the straight answer on the ten-year because you're just there to, i don't know, to walk the line or to spread the white house's message. i don't even know if i can -- >> i don't know if that's fair wait a second, i don't think that's fair. here's the thing, it is actually a very important and very conscious policy to pursue fed
8:15 am
independence from the -- >> i know. i want to go to this next thing. >> we know there are economies who have been brought to their knees by compromising that independence. >> but this next one i know you're not going to answer now because you're not going to be able to. >> i wouldn't be so sure let's hear it. >> as an economist we have a divided government now are you at least a little bit relieved that certain parts of the democratic party do not need now to be appeased with more spending can you just sit back for the next two years and go, we can't pretend we're going to pass more crazy legislation? really, you're not happy that happened >> actually, i think i can. >> as an economist, aren't you happy? >> i can answer that question. i am happy right now but it's not because of that. i'm just generally a happy person. >> you're not welcoming grid
8:16 am
lock >> basically the idea that we would sit on our hands, to use technical terms, is kind of nuts. >> you've done a lot of stuff. can we just see what happens if everything >> so, as usual, you've stumbled into an interesting area here, which is that -- the thing is, this is a very biden-esque point i'm about to make. i've worked for different presidents one of the things that joe biden puts above, that i've seen almost anybody else in executive office, democrat or republican, is implementation. so simply legislating is not the end game for many white houses that is the end game you land the plane, move on to the next thing he cares a ton about implementation so because of the inflation reduction act, and bipartisan law and the chips and signs act, we have to follow through and stand up a domestic
8:17 am
semiconductor industry and clean industry and this is good for long-term supply side, inflation, good for quality jobs, and it's good for america's competitiveness in our global future. so implementing all of those, you heard the president say this himself recently, implementing those efficiently, effectively, key priority as we go forward. >> good, we can agree on that, jared. focus on what you've already done if that makes you happy to implement all of those things, as long as you don't try a bunch of new stuff bernie is probably ready to spend another $8 or $9 trillion for starters >> look, i understand where you want to go here and talk about the future agenda and i get it let me give you two sort of guidelines or precepts first, do no harm. second, do good things pretty simple. do no harm
8:18 am
debt ceiling let's work together with congress to get that behind us as quickly as possible we would love to see congress send us up a debt ceiling bill in the lame duck second, do good things sure, implement what we've sun so far as i just discussed look, we're going to have budgets coming up to the hill and those are going to have ideas and you and i can certainly argue about them but i think those two precepts would get us pretty far. keep working on behalf of the american middle class, low income families so they can reap the benefits of what has been a strong and ongoing recovery thus far. >> fun, jared. thanks and you have hair, so anybody sa thas he's wearing the hat, that's not why you're doing it strictly because you can and because it looks good, right? >> it's a little chilly out here, too. >> you're not hiding anything. andrew, can you pull that off?
8:19 am
thanks, jared. we'll see you. >> i cannot pull off the newspaper hat. i can't do it. >> or the scarf. you can do the scarf but not that well. >> the scarf i could try we'll practice in davos and see how it goes. when we come back, we've got a lot more this morning. much more on the disney ceo shuffle. "squawk box" returns right after this we'll talk about the house of the mouse.
8:20 am
8:21 am
these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app today. if you run a small business, you need the most from every investment. that's why comcast business gives you more. more innovation... with our new gig-speed wi-fi, plus unlimited data. more speed... from the largest, fastest, reliable network... and more savings- up to 60% a year with comcast business mobile.
8:22 am
all from the company that powers more businesses than any other provider. get started with fast speeds and advanced security for $49.99 a month for 12 months. plus ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card with a qualifying bundle. former ceo bob iger back at disney bob chapek is out. julia borenstein joins us live with the details. >> good morning, joe this comes about a week after chapek announced cost cutting and it comes five months after the board extended chapek's contract for another two years it's been 11 months since bob iger left the role of chairman at disney. the company saying he has a mandate from the board to set the strategic direction for renewed growth and work closely with the board to develop a successor to lead after his
8:23 am
term take a look at disney shares premarket. they're nearly 10% higher on a bullish analyst response to this news disney shares had fallen 31% since chapek took the helm in february of 2020 that was right before the pandemic shuttered disney's biggest business, the theme parks. chapek faced criticism in august 2021 for mishandling talent when scarlet johannson sued over "black widow" going straight to streaming. earlier this year he faced backlash for his handling of florida's so-called don't say gay bill he's been questioned for the departure of top executives, including peter rice and also the decision to split-up content creation and distribution into two different divisions. so why now well, on november 8th disney reported earnings and revenue that missed expectations, also reported growing losses at the streaming decision with the ad-supported disney+
8:24 am
launching in just a few weeks, it faces more competition and challenges than ever, including economic uncertainty, which is driving an overall pullback in advertising, while inflation is expected to challenge consumer spending, which could also threaten revenue and consumer products spending. meanwhile, in bob iger's tenure at ceo, shares gained 500%, he was credited with the acquisition of marvel, lucas film and fox's entertainment assets and for refocusing the company on direct-to-consumer streaming. right now we're awaiting the filing that should have more details on iger'scontract and on chapek's payout in the meantime, we are seeing a range of quite bullish analyst notes. >> need to refocus on -- or at least succeed in refocusing the company on streaming that was not finished when he left, as we now know
8:25 am
>> yeah, it was not finished i would say the process is still very much under way. we have to keep an eye on what happens with the december 8th launch of this disney+ with ads and it will be interesting to see how that competes. they did raise the prices for all of disney+ as they introduced the disney+ with ads at the lower price point and then we'll also have to see how bob iger handles hulu, which is still partially owned by cnbc's parent company, nbc universal. so whether they complete that buyout as planned. this is a very different world we're in right now than even when iger left 11 months ago, the chairman role, in terms of inflation, in terms of recessionary fears and so many questions about what the consumer is going to be like one thing i have to point out, in past recessions, theatrical movie going to be recession resistant, but there's a lot of concerns in this economic downturn we will not see people
8:26 am
flock to movie theatres the way they have in prior economic downturns because there's so much content available on streaming. >> popcorn it's that fake butter. you just can't do it at home, really thank you. coming up, we're going to speak with top disney analyst, michael nathanson, about his view of the stock now that bob iger is returning. much more eaonahd "squawk box." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪
8:27 am
connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery.
8:28 am
oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.
8:29 am
when we come back, the state of ftx ten days after it filed for bankruptcy kate rooney, live in the center of it all in the bahamas and she will join us next when we come back
8:30 am
can he stand on his own... once he's all on his own? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ welcome. you've got sales! i do? i do! you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! when you've got the internet's most loved commerce platform. you've got sales! you've got sales! you've got sales! what was that? that's elwood. go to to start your free trial today. goodbye!
8:31 am
8:32 am
the latest on the downfall of crypto exchange ftx, in a court filing over the weekend the company said it owes its 50 biggest creditors for than $3 billion. ftx ran many operations out of the bahamas. kate rooney has made her way there and joins us now >> hey, joe, good morning. i spoke briefly to sam bankman-fried on friday, and despite being ousted from ftx in the company's bankruptcy, he says he's spending most of his time trying to broker a bailout. he declined to talk about the financial details around the fall of tfx and what we really want to know we're also trying to get a longer talk on the record. he is hunkered down, though,
8:33 am
here in the bahamas in a pretty upscale neighborhood he did tell me there are billions of dollars of potential funding out there to make customers whole, as he put it. he also talked about getting as much value to users. he says he hates what happened here and deeply wishes he had been more careful. he also maintains there are billions of dollars in customer assets, he says, available, despite not having access to his corporate email or any ftx systems at this point. guys, this is, of course, a long shot right now and legal experts tell me he would be no different than any other third-party bidder at this point but white collar crime lawyers told me over the weekend that being part of the solution may shield him from some legal liability in criminal and civil cases. no response from sam bankman-fried on that. and you can see some stark differences already here on the island as the company unwinds. we stopped by ftx's headquarters a sign that used to be oudtside
8:34 am
is gone and security guards shoed us away quickly. we went to the plot of land that ftx had committed $60 million to build out. it was once compared to apple and google's campuses. it is vacant, no construction was started. the bankruptcy courts are what people are focused on. ftx customer funds are caught between delaware and the bahamas. back to you. >> you know, he could have been based in buffalo, new york, but, no, he's based -- i mean, that's good for you that's good for you. >> it is there are worst places to be on assignment >> i wonder, are you going to be able to bring us an interview? is that possible is that fathomable at this point? i guess that might be tough with the lawyers and everything else.
8:35 am
>> yeah, we were going for it, joe. that's part of the reason we're down here, the story is obviously unfolding. the bankruptcy court is a big part of this he is still based and he's been chatty with reporters. he's been giving on-the-record comments and he's been tweeting consistently so i didn't get the sense that he is completely camera shy or not willing to talk about this and talk to reporters. we'll see if we can get anything on the ground, joe we'll keep you posted. >> hope springs eternal. all right, kate, just try to hang in there for cnbc and everything else. just take one for the team thanks >> thank you let's talk markets we've got a new call from goldman sachs that just came out, saying the bear market will stick around, they say, until 2023 they say typical equity trough conditions have not been reached and that the s&p 500 will end
8:36 am
next year less than 1% above joining us to talk about this, someone i imagine disagrees v vehemently from pennsylvania's school of business take on goldman sachs. what do you say, professor >> yeah, i think goldman -- i respect them but i think they're being too pessimistic. it's taken way too long for the fed to get it and they haven't gotten it yet that inflation is basically over, but they will. and i think they're going to get it maybe very late this year or early next year. i think as soon as they get it, you're going to see a big increase in the equity prices. >> what makes you so convinced that they are going to shift, given how jay powell has said -- and we've talked about it on this show over and over again,
8:37 am
this idea that it's a little bit maybe like an antibiotic you've got to go for the full ten-day dose on day seven it may look like you're feeling better, but if you stop taking it, you could get sick again >> next week we're going to get the monthly housing index, as well as the federal index. both are expected to show another big decline. and as you know, my point has been housing has declined, but the way the government computes it, and it's a very important part of the index, it's so lagged that it will continue to show increases and i think the fed will say, you know what, on the ground things are all declining and we've got to think about that. i was shocked when jim said just last week, yeah, i think things
8:38 am
are getting worse and now i feel i have to be even more aggressive i wonder what sort of data he's looking at tomorrow we're going to get the monthly money supply, as i think i've noted, we've had the greatest six-month decline in the money supply since world war ii i expect another decline tomorrow, so monetary conditions are still extraordinarily tight. once they get to the recognition, hey, what's going up in the real world, they'll say, we just don't have to tighten anymore and we don't have to get into -- >> professor, we just had the cfo of smucker's on this morning. he seemed to be able to pass his costs on and then some to the customer base right now, right >> yeah. i mean, there's certainly going to be pass-ons without any doubt, but when you take a look
8:39 am
at the important part of the index, that housing index, which for the fed is going up because of the way they construct it, in the real world it's going down, 40% of the core index is this housing. so even when you take into account passing on -- and i think it's true, many of them have passed on now their commodity costs are not going up anymore there's some labor costs going up, but outside of that, i think basically 90% of our inflation is gone. >> professor, boy do i hope you're right and i know eventually no matter what, i know you will be right the question is when will you be right. do you think we're talking about 50 basis points or 75 for the next time, or something else and then, as you look out to 2023, how do you think the fed pivots you just mentioned, jim bullard said he's seeing the opposite
8:40 am
you're seeing. jay powell has talked about his own credibility. the question is, there will be a pivot at some point, but also there's a bit of how do you pivot, when you start to think about those other kind of issues >> well, i think the most important thing, i think it's looking to me like 50 basis points because i think the data will still come in on the softer side what's more important in that december 14th statement is a real strong hint of a pause, which is what i think should happen, given the lags in monetary policy, given the tightness we've seenso far, they need to pause to see what actually is going to happen. that would really spark a big rally. but even a strong statement that we have seen good signs about inflation and that most of our
8:41 am
increases are behind us, i think could spark a december rally if not then, it would come in july -- excuse me, in january, the first meeting of next year. >> so last question for you, sir. you said goldman sachs basically is calling next year flat. that's what they're suggesting all in what do you think itwill be? >> i think we can easily be up 15% or more. >> wow that's a delta that's a massive delta so goldman is saying 1%, basically flat >> yeah, i think that we really could easily see a 15% and potentially even a 20% increase in equity prices in 2023 >> from your lips, professor sigel, in a world that hopefully is not black and white, somewhere in the middle.
8:42 am
i would probably take that, too. when we come back on the other side, we're going to talk to jim cramer and get his take on the trading day ahead and disney ceo shuffle, mr. cramer was the one who said fire mr. chapek, and they did. plus, top analyst michael nathanson will be joining us he just upgraded disney shares and boosted his price target we're going to come back with all of it after this
8:43 am
what if we wanted to electrify all of this... 100% carbon free... is it possible? ♪♪ aes has been leading energy transitions for decades... and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations. even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love
8:44 am
and green the planet at the same time? yes... aes.
8:45 am
let's get down to the new york stock exchange. mr. cramer, you said it on the air, we talked about it, you and i. i saw it, i heard it you said, get rid of mr. chapek. you didn't say bring mr. iger back i don't think that was necessarily in the cards here we are. what do you think? >> iger is a steady hand, i think that's what the company needs. i think iger worked well with everything and had the theme parks under control. there's all these other aspects of it that haven't been run well and i think that iger can figure out what to do in the same way howard schultz came back and figured out that kevin had to go i liked kevin, but he had to go. and then they fixed a lot of things and then they can give it up i feel that's a steady hand to fix things and then give it up to somebody. so i think it's absolutely good. the story to me is that iger is
8:46 am
back and will do a good job. >> remember, steve jobs was one of the great mentors to bob iger and i think bob always had huge admiration for steve when bob stepped away, there was conversations about whether he would become the ambassador in china and do these other things. i think here was an opportunity when it comes to legacy to maybe try to solve things, though it's going to be a challenge. >> yeah, it's a challenge. they made it so the acquisition was less effective, i do think there's a lot of costs to be cut. i think iger can distance himself from the idea that -- look, when streaming was worth everything and everyone felt they had to do streaming, you didn't have to make money, that was good then things changed. and unfortunately that was iger's path. but then chapek bought into it entirely and i think that iger
8:47 am
has a chance to reset. i think iger is steadier and is liked in hollywood >> jim, i don't know anybody who doesn't like bob iger. >> exactly right. >> my question to you is, in terms, though of -- and we talked to david about this before both the combination of succession planning and the history of bob iger, when you think about the chess pieces, people talk about a netflix as an acquisition potentially i don't know if you think that's too big. people talk about what happens to hulu. do you say to yourself, i'm going to take that content and move it to disney+ and maybe we'll sell it, i don't know if you're brian roberts if you want hulu under those circumstances i don't know if you decide you want to try to sell the company to an apple long term. that's a company they've had very close relationships with.
8:48 am
how does this play out in your mind >> look, i think the latter. theoretically, they're competitors, i think they're a potential supplier for apple tv. look, iger didn't ask to come back he was asked so we don't really know what his plan is because he's not coming in with a plan i think everything is on the table. i think the most important thing is the balance sheet while some people feel that bob spent too much money on fox, the balance sheet has to be fixed. it used to be an unbelievable balance sheet. they've got to reinstate a dividend last quarter was so horrendous, somebody had to come back. what you said, everybody loves iger, everybody. and i think he'll do a good job in the same way that howard schultz did a good job and figure out how to do cold brew maybe iger figures out cold brew but the balance sheet has got to be fixed, whatever it takes. fix the balance sheet. >> does that mean -- that's why
8:49 am
i mentioned hulu >> look, i think, yes, it would, it would help them immensely. >> espn, where do you land >> espn is still considered to be fat i happen to like espn very much and there's a way to be able to make it so it's worth it look, if you talk to zaslov, he would say the only thing that really works on tv is sports that's live. i hate to get rid of sports. i think it's not run well. i think the guy who runs it at espn is good but it's not integrated that's something iger can do chapek is unable to do any of these things >> jim cramer, you spoke it like it was and here we are this morning. we're going to see you in just a few minutes. we're going to talk to michael nathanson, the disney analyst about his case for the company heus jt upgraded the stock this morning. we'll get all the details after this
8:50 am
at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping
8:51 am
find new ways to unlock energy around the world. changing microscopic batteries. now, this is eargo, and they're rechargeable. can it get any easier?
8:52 am
♪ the big media news, former disney ceo bob eiger returning to the helm, replacing bob chapek, who spent less than
8:53 am
three years heading disney joining us now, michael natenson, a founding partner of moffitt nathanson, the firm upgrading disney's stock from market perform to outperform, raising its target from $100 a share to $120. where did bob chapek go wrong and what does bob eiger need to do to set the ship right michael? mic michael nathanson, can you hear me >> yeah, joe, you want to talk about this >> we did a bang-up job checking him in, didn't we? michael nathanson, can you hear me now >> i can hear you now. >> what'd bob chapek do wrong, and what can -- what does bob eiger need to do to set the ship right in your view, and do you think he will? >> yep here's what bob chapek did wrong. he stuck with the streaming
8:54 am
vision that was backwards. he was driven by subscriber growth and not profitability he had an investor day two years ago that set up these huge targets. he never walked them back. one is, be thoughtful about the profitability of streaming one. number two, be honest about espn, right? espn's future is not as bright as the past. you need to cut costs. you need to rethink the business what i like about bob eiger is he's always been direct, honest, willing to make tough choices. there's going to be some tough choices here in terms of the assets they have, the investment they need. when i look at bob chapek, he was way too optimistic about all these businesses and not willing to deal with reality, which is what happened on the last conference call when it all blew up in his face >> is the time right for bob eiger? there were some pretty heady times where bob headed disney. i guess it's in the eye of the beholder, but it seemed like a
8:55 am
lot for pixar, seemed like a lot on those acquisitions, they all grew into the price that was paid, but that's obviously not the environment that we're in right now. is he -- he can come in here and cut costs instead of, you know, just adding to the portfolio and, you know, sort of taking big swings >> yeah. joe, you're right. this is the opposite of where he started. he started 15 years ago when things were all trending up and to the right what i find about bob eiger is that he's honest and he's direct it's going to be a different regime than when we first started. he's going to have to cut things he's going to have to look at portfolio and make hard decision but that's what has to be done now. the business is in a different place. we have been very, very negative about the future of pay tv we're worried about, you know, the future of streaming too, because there's too much spending going on. you brought someone in who's going to have to deal with some problems some were created by the
8:56 am
decisions they made, and some are pandemic and some are the economy. it's a tough hand right now. >> hey, though, how much of the answer is in scale he's always been someone who's added to things. the question is, are we now going to get into a subtraction mode we talked about the chess piece that has hulu. is hulu as attractive as it used to be, to a comcast, frankly, if you have to take all the content off of it? i don't know do you think that you could go off and buy a netflix or buy something else if you so wanted to >> you know, it's a good question we think about what he's done with scale he's bought franchises the decisions that joe referenced, pixar, lucas film, marvel, those were part of clear strategy to own franchises, to own recurring content. i don't see him playing in broader entertainment. they used to make a lot more movies at disney they cut them all back i don't think the hulu asset's the best fit for bob's vision of what media looks like. so it's going to be interesting to see, can he call up ryan
8:57 am
rockets roberts and make a deal? as cramer just said, the balance sheet needs to be fixed. the generate very little cash flow we look at eiger's strategy at disney prior, it's about betting on franchises, making few bets but big bets scales around the franchises he bought, it wasn't just a volume business streaming is about volume, which is the antithesis of what eiger did, so i think he comes in and says, is this the business we thought it was probably not if we find a partner here in hulu or somewhere else, take some of these losses off our books, so i think that fresh view, the honest take and the understanding of media, which chapek never had, to me, isa huge upside, you know, win versus where we were before. >> so, do you think that brian roberts still wants that part of hulu, and what do you think will happen to comcast stock when it -- i mean, it might be good to combine with the economies of
8:58 am
scale with peacock or something, but it's not -- we don't think of hulu the way we did a couple years ago where we would have killed for it. brian probably would have killed for it back then >> yeah. you know, my partner, craig, covers it. the stock has been a terrible, terrible stock this year the market hates the combination of nbc plus sky plus comcast cable. they don't like peacock's losses it's a good question i don't think the market's going to celebrate brian roberts buying hulu, but he's got a problem at peacock, a problem with nbc maybe it lets him do something with the asset mix maybe he won't he's got to look at the combination of cable and entertainment, but i agree, joe, the bloom's come off the streaming rose, but peacock is not going to scale, and nbc faces the same pressures as everyone else without a scaled dtc product so he's got some challenges there hulu would fix that. i'm interested in seeing what happens here i think eiger and brian roberts
8:59 am
will have to sit down and talk about that combination i do i think that's where i would start the conversations. >> have you seen anyone do streaming right? in other words, not subscribers but profitability? who's done it best >> over the years, you had me on, we always said, we don't know if streaming is a good business netflix does it right, but as a business model, there's very low cash flow there, just 3% cash flow in business it's not a great business. that's always been our challenge here we don't like streaming businesses we think disney plus could be a niche service built around some very big content brands, but i don't want to see the streaming wars being fought. they lead to no profitability. >>, so it's not cable, because of cord cutting, it's not streaming, yet content's more valuable than ever, and that's all we want to do is sit around watching stuff doesn't make any sense somebo somebody's got to win. >> there's too much capacity we need con solidation >> we need some good shows but
9:00 am
not "dahmer 2." i can't do that. i know too much already. thank you. good to have you on. good thoughts. andrew, you around tomorrow? am i going to see you? >> i am. what a morning what a morning >> pretty good morning pretty good. pretty, pretty, pretty good. make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street," coming up next. ♪ david, if we were to compare business to sports and espn, we would say that it is time to find another coach yes, that means it's time for ceo bob chapek -- bob paycheck there it is. bob chapek to go it's time for chapek to go >> you really believe that >> no, i wrote this in a complete -- in a moment of fiction. okay, he's an nfl coach, okay? it's a disaster. we keep him because, what? it's a rebuilding year >> listen, you


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on