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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 21, 2022 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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it's not in a peloton position, exactly, after all of this people still using it and no hardware or inventory to worry about. >> that's right. as we head to the next show, the cloud index down 1.8%. let's get over to "halftime report" now. >> welcome everybody to the "halftime report." i am scott wapner front and center stocks are not going up this year according to one watcher. we're trading disney's iger on the committee. joining me on set, and let's check the markets. the nasdaq is down a little more than 1%, and dow is off 54, and 380 is the yield on the ten-year note we're watching all that and will
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get to all that in a moment. of course, the story of the day is disney. we want to attack that first because we have a shareholder here, and jim, you are in the stock. your reaction to this stunner that we got today. >> yeah, woke up today and the stock was up 9% in the premarket, and i thought what is going on with disney did somebody take it over? we have given some of that increase back, and maybe that's what we should expect. obviously i am not into the stock for 6.5% we are in it for a lot more than that bottom line is the company is executing well i think where it got into trouble is with the corporate activism he was doing and the company was doing, and i know it's sensitive what i am about to say, but take it or leave it, and the spat he got into with
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governor desantis earlier this year, and the rescinding of the special tax status in florida, i think that put crosshairs on his back, and that was on the margin, a reduction in the value of the company i think the reason the stock is up, is not that iger coming in -- >> i will stop you real quick, because when you said the company is executing well -- >> yes >> that's the whole reason why we are having this conversation in the first place we are not having it because of his spat with desantis >> well -- do you want to continue >> i do. all of the evidence would suggest that it's because they haven't been executing well. the most recent earnings report said as much with the amount of losses that they are having. other companies like netflix have pivoted to what is a changing environment and
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landscape for direct to consumer, whereas it was portrayed to me for the people i have spoken to today, that chepek never got the memo. it was poor and not well >> i disagree. where we will agree -- >> what are we disagreeing on? i just gave you facts. this what we do all the time i engive you facts and you push back with fiction. >> just hold on. whose got theme parks, disney or netflix? >> you think chepek came up with the theme park >> who was responsibility for the hurricane coming through in the last quarter the theme parks are raising prices and demand is there, and
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studios are back the one fact you and i will agree on is the share price is down now, i am submitting to you, and i don't think it's fiction, and i think it's too strong but you and i do this all the time, and i think the company is executing well and the company is fine and it's the share price that is broken, and over timeshare prices follow what good companies do, and this company is growing the theme park and studio business, so i disagree with you, scott. these are opinions are we are disagreeing on >> okay. according to you joe, you sold the stock, like, two weeks ago, right if execution was so great, we wouldn't be having this conversation today look, in fairness to mr. chepek, because iger himself is such an iconic ceo, chepek was not left the greatest hand to play at the table, okay?
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iger left at the beginning of the pandemic, so he had to play the whole thing during that period of time he inherited an extraordinary leveraged balance sheet, and that saddled them with debt and it was hard to deal with, and got rid of the dividend because you couldn't pay it because the balance sheet after the deal, and you sold the stock two weeks ago which was a statement in itself of where you thought it was in the here and now. >> i had enough and this is a company that has significant operational challenges you introduce the cyclical challenges regarding ad spent and contracting, and a consumer that is very challenged, and these are monumental issues that bob iger is going to step into
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the company and have to address. now, let's keep talking about this, and we are not going to know exactly -- we can speculate what his strategic approach will be, but we won't know for sure until you hear around the earnings, and it's a tax loss, and i will take that tax loss. number two, i want that earnings call, and i want to hear what the vision is for the company. i will not sit here and go back and forth and debate whether the company operationally has challenges or not. to me it's clear any company that takes away the dividend is making a statement that they have operational challenges. >> when you lose as much money, josh, as they revealed that they did on the most recent earnings report, relative to where expectations were, and you blind-sided, words that were used to me today, investors with the degree of loss relative to
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expectations, you have to question the execution of not only the ceo but others on the management team who let wall street get so blind-sided by that most recent earnings report, and that's part of the reason why we find ourselves where we are today >> i don't -- all right, so a couple things. jimmy's problem is not picking good companies and picking stocks i think he's very good at it the problem is he doesn't know what time it is. this is not a time you want to be levered to a weakening consumer and a weakening economy. it's just going to be -- doesn't matter who the ceo is. you could make pluto the ceo we have all the early warning signals of a recession, and on friday, it was the eighth consecutive down month in that
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indicator. between that, between the yield curve, between what we know about credit card spending now up 15% in the third quarter over the prior year, that's the biggest one-year jump in the history of data that we have for that you look at the confluence all all these things and you ask, is disney going to be able to restruck shur and fix the business in this environment probably not forget everything i am saying now, if you see a ten-year hold, and if not, i don't see how this out performed a t bill, and i'll take the t bill. that's where i am with this. and the fact that it's only up 6% on this news, tells you everything you need to know, even if iger can come in, and
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it's not a one quarter situation. i think it's just tough timing here i love the company i just don't know, like, what is the reason i have to be in this right now. >> jim, i will give it back to you for your retort if you have something to that. >> sure. the word leverage is what you used, josh, and what is going on with disney and it's going on with paramount and the whole spectrum right now, these companies are investing in the future of the business, and next year there will be a peak amount of losses for the streaming business, for disney and paramount, and this is not an environment in which investments for the future are rewarded in the share price. however, where you and i differ is whether or not the recession is coming. i would point out the gdp is
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accelerating right now, and as inflation continues to come down -- we can disagree on this, and the punishment the companies are given for investing in the future will stop as interest rates stop going up. that's the supposition here, and there's going to come a.the in t -- come a point in time, and they will say these are paying off right now. they will anticipate that in the next few months. >> is iger returning to the scene enough to get you interested in the stock? >> i don't really think so i followed disney for many years back when josh was in about fourth grade, and i will tell you that the people who built disney into what it has become,
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which is michael eisner and bob iger, did a lot of growth through spending and acquisition. so disney had not even started producing "the lion king" and "alad "aladdin tpl followed it, and they spend hundreds of billions on making the company what it is today, which is highly integrated eisner bought abc and that carried the company for years. now we are in a different world. the fact that iger bought pixar and marvel and turned them into the bmf of the franchise movie business and all of the figures and ancillaries related to it, that's not what the market wants right now. jim can say we can get closer to that on growth stocks on their growth ability, but this is the
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entire media world that is included in disney iger has never cut costs, and never streamlined the company. that's a different role for him. not saying he can't do it, but -- >> he's going to do it >> it's going to be complicated. you can't bet on it. you asked me if we would bet on it right now, and i think right now, no, we wouldn't still at 22 times its earnings >> go ahead, josh. >> if we could look at a ten-year chart of a disney share price, just plain vanilla, and it's so obvious that this support level, which is the low 90s, that held in 2016, 2017, and it held the pandemic lows of march 2020 that's the level that we're laying on right now. like, this stock, this stock has that level of support, and to
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meet that, we don't know what happens. that violates an up trend that has been in place for almost ten full years i hope it does hold. i don't want to see anybody lose money, but i will tell you the drivers of growth for this name, partly their own fault and partly just the fault of the overall macro environment, and you have a recession in europe, i don't care what you think, it's too bad it's happening. you have whatever issues are with shanghai and china, and too much to talk about right ow, and marvel, and it's doa phase four marvel was a critical disaster and box office flop >> didn't we just get 300 million on black panther >> it's melting away each successive show they add is leading to less and less
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subscribers. phase four did not work. >> i am accused of being fictional, but let's face of facts, 300 million in the opening at the box office -- >> and then it disappeared the shelf life of that film is a huge problem for disney. huge >> the whole problem here is that the -- the industry, the narrative, is changing from a subscribers at all costs environment where it's just not going to be that anymore hastings eluded to that with netflix. don't focus on our total subscribers anymore, focus on our profitability. chapek, he got burned by that this last quarter when the
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losses were so much higher than wall street had anticipated. they tried to compete with netflix in a too short period of time that's what i am told was the most misguided thing he was not able or willing to pivot away from that that's execution >> no, that's strategy what you just said is strategy you actually invest for the future that pays off in 2024 >> jim, the environment -- you said the stock is not being rewarded for the investment. >> yeah. >> that's what you said. >> that's right. >> because the degree of investment is being viewed as a dec detriment, not as a benefit. that's factual >> it's an opinion my goodness. is it hard for you to understand the difference between a fact and opinion. >> i am looking at what is happening to the business. that's a fact. that's a fact. >> the business has grown.
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and, yes -- >> have they added subscribers from nothing yes, you are right, it has grown. >> they have 125 million subscribers in 2 1/2 years >> my point is the total number of subscribers is not the thing to look at anymore, and it's how much you are spending to get them and how profitable you are or not >> profitability is approaching, scott. this is a question of everybody's investment time horizon, and if you are looking for profits from disney plus in the next three months, for get it nobody is telling you that's going to happen. everybody from the start is saying it's 2024 as a shareholder, as somebody that looks out there and says where is a dollar's worth of value trading for 50 cents i can tell you the value of 2024 to me -- scott, this is an opinion, okay, and it's about two x of where we are now. >> are you of the opinion that lobe is in there for a second time and now we learn nelson pelts is
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in there, too. >> before the management change. that's in my thesis, too >> you think he thinks the execution is so fabulous >> why else would he invest in it, scott? >> to try and effect change in the execution. >> do we know if they support the change in management >> i don't know. >> i have not talked to nelson pelts. >> if he doesn't, that's a problem. >> you think he's in there to hang around and go to disney world. >> my point is, if it was a permanently broken company, he wouldn't invest in it. >> why would he invest in a permanently broken company >> i think we are just throwing rocks at each other. you tell me you think you are talking to a brick wall, and i will tell you, i feel the same way about you. >> wow josh, you bought netflix not that long ago and that's the one
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you own. >> yeah, i bought it in a crash. i would probably buy disney in a crash. i don't think the story is so difficult that it can't be -- it's not meta. i am just talking about the timing it looks like we are on the verge of a technical breakdown, and all the macro trends are turning, and it's disney in a nutshell and i would buy it in a crash situation, and don't forget, this is a company that has always been susceptible to how the consumer is doing or feeling. the stat that i tried out a few minutes ago, to me, is important for everybody in the consumer stocks, netflix included, to keep in the back of their head we have a huge surplus in cash available to households but they spent down about one-third of that, and now we are starting to see a jump in credit car that.
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it's about the when. i will make a gentleman's bet with my friend, jim, right now six months i would rather be in the shy, which is a one to three treasury bond etf, and i will collect by 4.5% yield, and put this up against disney, including disney's dividends if and when they will pay one i think this is the ultimate no-brainer i don't need another stock i think is better. i would tell you no risk is better than this risk. >> if you want to make it a lunch, i am more than happy.
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i accept your bet. >> i think -- look, let's hit the market overall i did reference, you know, this so-called rally even though stocks are down. we rallied a lot off the lows, right, in mid october. mike wilson was suggesting we could get to 4150 or beyond that he thinks still expect higher highs for this tactical rally before the deterioration can we put something together over the final six weeks before we face a bit of a reality check of where we are? >> i think it's possible we saw it two weeks ago, what happens when there is a piece of good news that investors like. nasdaq went up 8%. inflation was 7% year over year.
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and i don't know it seems as if there's a lot of buying appetite out there, but it's not coming into play until we have actual numbers that confirm that there's something positive if you get another print of inflation that the market is enthused about, and i believe more layoffs, and layoffs are a positive for the fed meaning there's less people spending more money and pushing prices higher, so the tech industry is beginning to rationalize we have seen that from meta, amazon and google. there are a lot of companies talking about cost cutting then you saw on the spending site of consumers, while the overall number was good, target told us their customers are not buying and that's $105 billion a year of spending, and that's not nothing, and if their customers are spending less that's
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defl deflationary, and we heard that from kohl's. yes, it's possible >> and on squawk we heard, 90% of our inflation is gone are you on team siegel >> sorry you know i am. yes, i am. i am look, and just let me be more specific, instead of chuckling, and i was still in our thanksgiving meal -- it was fun. >> if that's how your thanksgiving meals are, don't invite me to your house. but go ahead >> gasoline futures are back down to the preukraine invasion, and a lot of commodity prices are down, and you see what is going on at target and walmart, and i could go on and on the point being inflation has come down, and cpi, the way it's constructed is it's constructionally lagging, and
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the peak fed fund rate is likely to be less than 5% that it's priced in. that was not a fact. it's a projection of the future that i believe i don't know it as a fact, and it's what i believe. i could be wrong and you will have fun when i am, and that's what i believe, and it's team seagull. i am not enraged >> let's get to brian sullivan he has a news alert and it's related to what we might be seeing in oil. >> yeah, it is by the saudis coming out and denning the story about opec plus and the 5,000 barrel per day increase, and the price of oil collapsed on that, down 6% to 7560 was the low of the day the saudis coming out -- i will read you the number, the official saudi tape, and they don't put out things on their official suppress very much, and
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the prince categorically denies they are discussing 5,000 more barrels a day, and the cut continues until 2023, and we always remain ready to intervene. not only are they denning the production increase story, but they sort of hint they might cut again, scott so denning the production increase story, and now saying they may stand ready to actually further cut production we're going to get much more reporting on this, but it's moving the price of oil, and crude has come well off its lows i would suggest maybe the oil stocks could be on the half-time thanksgiving dinner menu as well >> we will do that right after this break thank you very much. we'll be back in two minutes
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♪ we're back you see what is happening in oil, and you have the brian sullivan headlines before we went to a break. joe, we're already coming off the worst week since april >> uh-huh. >> now what?
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now what >> first of all, let's not forget, oil is down because of covid. oil is down on the concerns -- >> you mean china? >> absolutely, what we are seeing in china, without question that's why we are down significantly today. i don't think anybody suspected opec would raise production. they just announced they are cutting production, and maintaining energy exposure is the right way. overweight is what you want to have, and you don't have to have significant data exposure. >> were we at 80 -- >> yeah, and then down significantly this morning on the china covid news, and that was the reason to be down. i think there was a false expectation to believe that an increase from opec of 500,000 barrels per day is actually going to be enacted. i think that's the complete opposite of what is going to happen >> so for the energy stocks -- >> you maintain your overweight
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exposure, and you are okay owning chevron, con phillips 66, valero these are all the companies that i believe rightfully belong in a diversified area >> exxon, yes, you own it? transocean >> yes, and that's on a spectrum of beta to oil that's just the straight way to play it. if you want to play it safer, play it with a pipeline, and you can pick up transocean and that's risky i think this was a head fake to the down side on oil more importantly, you have got sanctions about to bite on russia maybe the sanctions won't hold,
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the price cap and a lot of questions, and steve said it was the stupidist thing he heard, and these sanctions are likely to bite on the margins in terms of the supply. and that's being papered over by what joe -- >> you said the implication is you think they will go way up? >> yep >> you said exxon or schevron. you said you could own both. they both had a great year you will take 51% or 77%, and 77% is exxon why is the out performance that dramatic >> it's the geography of where they explore and where they produce, and sometimes there can be a short fall, and over time
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these two companies track each other very well. and the xle is 45% these two companies. it's really like these two are the bellwether for the industry. >> josh, you own the ieo, and that's the oil and gas emp, and you have increased your exposure as the year has gone on. >> yeah, i think what we are seeing is a viable dip i could be wrong and they are still above their 200-day moving average, so 8 out of 10 names are still in a bull market even a return in the xle names, they are up 66% year to date i think if we are going by weight of the evidence, it's still an ongoing bull market take a look at evaluation. it's a 1.9 price to sales and a
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13 price to free cash flow they have median earnings per share growth this year, expected to be 140% you have the industry with the best fundamentals, and probably the most under owned sector there is in the market, given how horrible energy had been for years, and earnings growth is still explosive. we still have all of the same geopolitical headaches we have had all year that's not going away because we turn the calendar over i am in ieo, and southwest gas, and this is -- >> i am sorry if i threw cranberry sauce at you >> it's okay >> are you glaring at each other? >> all of us threw rocks and nobody got hurt and we're moving on the call of the day on a big
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health care stock, and don't miss santoli's midday word that's coming up, next
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of the "halftime report. the market is in favor of the bulls and bears lately, despite data pointing to cooling inflation, the fed seems determined to carry out its rate hiking agenda. investors may have to look elsewhere for reliable income. one possible solution is looking at large cap companies that not only pay dividends but grow them consistent lay joining us is todd, and ryan geary, and he runs the firm enhanced dividend etf, and it has a track of some of the largest inflows we have seen all year, so brian, i will start with you the dividend growth etf's.
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>> it's a core equity income etf, and it holds large cap, blue chip, dividend paying stocks with a history of dividends and earnings increases. along with that, there's a technical cover call on the portfolio that looks at writing cover calls to provide more income, and it's actively managed. managed by cwp we think it provides nice stability, and a core equity solution paying right around the 5%, just shy of 5% of current distributions. good current income, and good total return potential as well >> and todd, what names stand out to you >> yeah, we are hearing from
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advisers looking for an alternative to fixed income to get that stability talked about the income generation, so we have seen strong demand for the schwaab u.s. dividend equity etf, and that has been popular on our platform, and strong interest in the jpmorgan equity, and like that etf owns individual stocks and enhances the income there's a wide range of etfs, but you have to do a little homework to understand what is inside of them >> we will have more on dividend growth etf opportunities with brian and todd, and with black friday around the corner, what does that mean for etfs as consumergrpls ape can inflation. "halftime report" returns right after this ♪ ♪
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united health, that's our call of the day. why? because it was downgraded today. it still out performed and it was a strong by at raymond james. its target is 615. you own it, joe. it got downgraded. what is the difference, do you think, between out performance and strong buying? >> i just want to hear josh's response, because i know it will be something unique. >> give him a chance -- >> i don't understand, first of all, health care, the right sector to be in year to date without question okay why the downgrade? well, we are concerned about virus headwinds. >> i am telling you what they say, growing headwinds >> okay. we have a cyclical challenge where covid, the flu, is going
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to potentially challenge united health care's potential earning quarter, and that's a good time to get into stock that has gotten away from investors, and it's still trades at reasonable valuation at 25 times, and it's in the right sector. it's very similar, and i will say this, with no degree of arrogance. so many people criticized me throughout the year for talking about merck, and it's now 105. it was in the 70s, okay. this is the environment where you want to own those types of stocks, and united health care, without question is one of those stocks if there is a little bit of a cyclical challenge from the virus, guess what? that's to your advantage utilize it to take a position. >> is that an opinion or a fact
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that you want to own merck if it's opinion, but based on the performance -- it's fact >> carrie, you own united health >> we have owned united health for quite a while. all you have to say about this stock is it's up for the year. we are so happy we owned it. it is, however, trading at the highest multiple it has traded in ten years, and the market likes that in same-performing companies, and if you look at pepsi, mccormick, and look across the staples and not just drug companies, and there are many selling across multiples because they are dependable. we took some of the united health and trimmed it. we still own a large sized position, but i would not -- i wouldn't want to exist without some names like this when we have risk op risks like last
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week, because they are the ones that continue to perform if you are on a portfolio that is full of risks you will really struggle when we have the risk off weeks. i like it but like it a little less >> josh, quickly before we go? >> on health care in general >> joey teed you up. gave you three minutes to think about it >> i don't have a criticism of that i don't believe in price targets and i don't believe in under perform, or out perform -- i look at the charts and the charts don't like. >> that's not the response i was looking for. all right. mike santoli is up next with his midday word.
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all right. mike santoli from the new york stock exchange now for his midday word. trying to figure it out, if we have a six-week path to something higher or not? >> yeah, i mean, this actually is looking like a pretty prolonged pause in the market. the last eight trading days including today, the s&p closed between where it is right now, basically, 39, 40s, and 4,000, and never closing above 4000 so you can see we are consolidating a rally we had in
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october, and accelerated by the one on november10th. difficult to say whether that's the whole story, just creating a new base i don't think we are questioning whether it's seasonal or strong, but the question is what else does the market have going for it and the treasury curve, right or wrong, they look in that direction and ask what is this telling me about the macro even though the economy doesn't seem to be really failing in any rapid sense, so i think you say it's a constructive pause until proven otherwise, but it's really indecisive. >> people are getting impatient, too, right if we are going to get something going towards the end of the year, let's get it going already, right >> yeah, no fourth quarter rally is a straight line this one is tracking pretty well, compared to prior years where you had a bear market bottom
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we will see. >> thank you up next, fallout from ftx's collapse we will head live to the bahamas where we spoke
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welcome back to "halftime report." a cord filing showing that ftx
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owes more than $3 billion to its biggest creditors. kate rooney joins us live from the bahamas. kate >> reporter: hey there, scott. i spoke briefly to sam prankman fr -- bankman fried, he says his's still trying to broker a bailout. he declined to talk about the details, and he will no longer talk about it on the record. he is hunkered down in the upscale bahamas neighborhood about 30 minutes from here he did tell me there's billions of potential funds out there to make customers whole he said he hates what happens and wishes he had been more careful. he also maintains there are still billions in customer assets that are still available,
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despite not having access to his corporate e-mail or any of the ftx systems right now. to be clear, guys, thinks still a long shot. legal experts say he would be no different than any other third-party bidder, but legal experts are telling me him being part of the solution may hef in civil or criminal court. no response from him, but the new ceo john ray saying he is also exploring sale options. you can already see some of the starks differences, a lit-up ftx sign that was here in august, that is gone right now we stopped by the ftx headquarters the parking lot was pretty much empty. security guards shooed us away we saw a car leave the offices with four young people we couldn't tell if they were employees. they rolled up the window, wouldn't make eye contact and drove away pretty quickly.
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and executives once compared that to apple and google's campuses in silicon valley that says vacant right now no construction has started. the story is still heating up in bankruptcy court, with funds caught between delaware and the bahamas. it's all over the local papers, scott, as well the nassau guardian, the front-page news here in nassau it comes as we're hearing reports in the last ten minutes or so, lawmakers are calling on regulators to review -- when we come back, we'll do fine trades. that's next.
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on that note, carrie the first final trade. health equity, hqy it's a stock that providers leadership in the help savings plan world the stock has come down because of fear that interest rates were sliding. interest rates are higher than they were for sure this company benefits from having a lot of deposits of employees who have health savings plans, which is a growing market, and will continue. >> thank you josh brown southwest guess i mentioned earlier, this has carl icahn very heavily involved. it's actually three companies in one. i think nits 60s it's way too cheap. >> joey? >>albemarle. fantastic revenue growth, 91% over the last fourth quarters. >> farmer jim, my friend.
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>> my friend, too, judge i was thinking about something that joe said earlier about, sort of unsung hero, bristol-myers, another unsung hero they can perform in down markets. >> thanks, everybody we'll see you in a few hours in "overtime. ". happy monday i'm brian, in for kellie once again. the news never takes a day off there's a lot to talk about today, including the stunning return of bob iger to run disney can he do what bob chapek apparently couldn't? one top economist says ig not most the the noise and china's zero policy for covid not working. will they ever change a policy that's keeping


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