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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  November 25, 2022 4:00am-5:00am EST

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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [theme music playing] good morning happy black friday welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> european markets with a muted start, but after six week of gains after rising covid cases in china weigh on sentiment. and a report of production at one of the key factories is set to fall 30% this month amid
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unrest over covid restrictions at foxconn. and german yield curve at the deepest level of inversion in years after the economy rose more than expected in the third quarter. and retailers brace for the busiest shopping day of the year european shoppers face a down turn let's start with news from china overnight. authorities in china have reported a fresh record high of covid cases prompting cities to tighten restrictions beijing and shanghai and guangzhou are reporting a rise in cases reuters is reporting that over 20,000 employees in zhengzhou left over unrest and unfair pay.
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and shipments could fall 30% in november according to the report it claims the recent unrest is the primary factor with the weaker outlook for the major apple supplier we have been talking about china, especially since the most recent china's people congress for a while, it looks from the economic perspective, things were looking up. they were ready to tweak restrictions for covid the last couple days have changed everything a flare up in cases. renewing the lockdowns restrictions are moving in the wrong direction. it really feels from a global economic stand apppoint that an betting on the idea of china opening soon is not going to happen >> the timeline that is realistic is at least march as the earliest date. the reason china has been restricted about the lockdowns is immunity is low against
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covid. low natural immunity because everybody is shutdown. immunity from the vaccines is low because there is amazing amounts of hesitancy because of the questions of efficacy of the vaccine and a risk adverse population. >> you did a digital video six months ago about the zero covid policy from china. it is astonishing we are talking about restrictions and testing and tracing in china and the rest of the world has moved on to your point, it is an issue of vaccine efficacy and the second is very little take. we had a guest a couple of weeks ago saying above 80 age range, the vaccine rate is low. >> we will see a pivot from chinese authorities. they don't want to take the mrna
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developed by pfizer and moderna. what does that leave as options? china to develop their home grown mrna vaccine >> the thing that strikes me is china knows they have to keep growing. i think what is happening at foxconn is really good litmus test for the rest of the economy as well. there is only so much time people will live under restrictions and not leave the house or lead a normal life when a lot of the workers are asking for rising pay foxconn is the perfect example the number i read in the article overnight is 20,000 workers had been affected. that is a small portion of the total of the population of china, but i just wonder to what extent the populous will hang on here because there is rising discontent. >> i think that is a really interesting point. i think it is really hard to get
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a strong grasp on how the public is feeling about china there is a report of discontent in china, but also those say the population by and an large is okay relmaining isolated with th rest of the world. ultimately china needs to produce vaccines until you have the conditions met, it is is hard to see china move forward. >> if you want the economy to grow, you have to find a way to live with covid. that is the conclusion we came to in europe as well reason why european countries and u.s. and the rest of the world have been able to move on and look back at the covid times in the rear-view mirror we are living with covid. let's look at asian markets and see how the equities in the overnight session have fared you have some green on the board for the shanghai composcomposite
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up .40%. investors skhrugging off the covid cases as authorities look to address the fallout and address the down side of continuing to impose restrictions hang seng down .35%. turning to europe. here is the picture for equities mixed picture. ftse 100 up .16% mixed for germany. italian markets with muted trade in switzerland retail sector in focus it is black friday and investors are gearing up for the data and trends that will emerge between now and christmas. on the note, let's look at the sector breakdown in europe oil and gas trading at the top
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at .30%. on the down side, the real major move from the sector is real estate down 2.1%. retail also trading on the back foot down .80%. interesting action in bond markets. let's look at european yields. we have the 10-year trading at 3.3% and this is the most interesting part german yield curve with the deepest inversion since 1992 let's look at the german yield we have the 10-year bund -- there is an issue with the chart. i'll take a look at the 2-year bund joumanna. policymakers express fears over the policy entrenched according to the october meeting. rates would need to increase further to bring inflation down
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toening likely the ecb raised rates 75 basis points last month. sounding a little more hawkish there. the ecb bond member said smaller rate hikes could slow the pace of the central bank fight against price pressure >> we need to raise interest rates further. probably into restrictive territory. we need to ensure inflation returns to the target as quickly as possible and second round doesn't materialize. incoming data so far suggests that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate a adjustments remains limited. even as we are approaching estimates of the neutral rate. >> the final rate on the third quarter gdp was above
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expectations rising above 3.1% are for the year it was boosted by the consumer smend spending and the german economy may not have a recession as deep as once thought. the review of the bund bank said they are weighing the households and increasing the future risk of defaults. i spoke with the representative and i talked about the challenging macro environment and if there is enough resilience in the financia sector >> the financial sector can rely on the fiscal support coming in the future we need the financial system to be resilient against general increase and credit risk which is clearly in the pipeline because of the recession tendencies because of the stress of the current risks are
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imposing on the german economy >> our next guest says the ecb could take a softer approach than the fed and tolerate higher inflation. i'm happy to say jacob mitchell is joining us now. first of all, thanks for coming from sydney. it's great to have you with us here around the set. it is great to see people traveling. let's pick up on this inflation thesis because julianna and i had a read through the investor report what i thought was interesting was your line about investors having to get used to higher levels of inflation going forward. the thesis is underpinning the narrative. talk about it. >> it is mathematically certain that inflation has to fall i think we are in a different regime where we have to expect volatility around inflation and economic growth. let's call it wider amplitude
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going forward in gdp central banks will struggle with fiscal policy. the response to the covid was a mistake in itself. too loose fiscal and monetary. now monetary policy is fighting that i recommend within 12 to 18 months, we will loosen policy to deal with recession. >> wow potential pivot in the next 12 months in your view. >> yeah. i'm not sure we describe it as a pivot or normal response to recession. >> let me pick up on the inflation point. you had an interesting chart we were looking at before you joined us showing the relationship with inflation and market multiples can you flush out that relationship for us? >> sure. once you go above average inflation through the cycle the and it starts to push up 4 and 5, it comes down drastically with the multiple.
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i think that is a response to a more credible volatility and earnings most analysts are forecasting growth next year which is surprising because we look to be in middle of recession you tend to get with inflation sticky and volatility. you have swings which we had in covid and down swings in recessions we think there is a fair amount of down side >> it feels like a trickyinvest. it has been a difficult environment for growth stocks because of interest rates. how will that pan out next year given what you are saying? >> i don't think the headwind or normalization of rates is behind us that headwind for growth stocks is behind us it is a question of how they navigate recession in the tough
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economic environment some of the more resilient growth businesses will do well we have a cluster. they are earlier in there. adoption of transition to the cloud. salesforce and front office and back office with the growth later. right now, actually. i think that is interesting. >> i see in addition to the software names, you are big in industrials and materials. do you have single stocks to throw out to viewers >> and what i notice as well within industrials and materials, you own siemens interesting with the german back drop >> we are looking at energy multinationals as you are aware of the energy crisis, it has thrown opportunities. you have cyclical businesses
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that are priced for a hard landing. we don't see that in the u.s we don't see that priced in yet. we do in europe. si siemens is a benefit of the energy trend you are paying a fee for business that historically has been cyclical growth profile and combination of the corporate actions to actually reorganizing the portfolio toward defensive growth assets is a really good software/hardware factory busine business it is all about reengineering supply chains. the global manufacturing with autos switching to ev. siemens benefits from that. >> a question on healthcare. you own merck and sanofi
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what is that as opposed to defensive? >> they are much better than defensive. that is it the reality in the businesses is that they are marketing bonds p. sanofi and merck are internal epg engines. when you are growing that fast, they are growing low double digit. they are managing risks and pipelines and major patents and drugs. in the world of capital, the acquisitions they need to make to fill gaps are cheaper than they were. >> very valid point. jacob, thankful you came on to chat with us really nice to have you here in
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studio jacob mitchell cio of antipodes. credit suisse offered 889 million shares to investors at 2.52 swiss francs to support restructuring plan it has been widely known of course that the stock has been under significant pressure now we know the details of the capital raising plan. elsewhere, adidas has launched a probe into inappropriate behavior by the collaborator kanye west. it received anonymous letter alleging misconduct by the musician and fashion designer. group cut its ties with yeezy taking a 250 million euro hit. and deutsche bank and jpmorgan chase are sued by women who accused jeffery epstein of sex abuse.
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the women have not been publicly named in the lawsuit they accused the banks of benefitting from the alleged sex trafficking. deutsche bank said the claim lacks merit. jpmorgan chase has not responded to the accusations. coming up on the show. no deal. european energy ministers kick the can down the road on the heated discussions of the gas cap price.
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rated m for mature.
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welcome back to the show many ukrainian cities remain without heat or power after russian air strikes on the country's energy infrastructure. residents in kyiv have been warned to stock up on essential supplies volodymyr zelenskyy said there are issues with fixing water supplies in regions. volodymyr zelenskyy says this is an attack from russia. >> almost every hour i receive a report of strikes from chkherso
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and other regions. this is the revenge of those who lost they do not know how to fight. the only thing they can still do is terrorize energy terror or artillery terror or missile terror that is all russia has. the eu leaders failed to a gas cap. a proposed cap of 275 euro per megawatt hour failed to impress. ministers had been quick to sign off on a package of purchases and emergency measures to share supplies the czech trade minister downplayed the deal. saying the group was sending a message of unity despite tough negotiations >> the discussion was quite heated and you all know that there are very divergent views
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proposed by the commission this was an opening debate which would serve as a starting point for the agreement we want to reach in december. >> very exciting we have sylvia back from brussels with us >> great to be on set. >> not just black friday, but happy friday >> wonderful to have you wonderful to have you fresh from brussels this gas price cap proposal when it came out on tuesday was met with skepticism. even from the ministers who wanted a price cap the level was too high you heard some call it a joke. reading between the lines, they set it that high to get skeptics like germany and the netherlands on board where do things go from here if you can't get the countries to agree? does it have hope? >> for germany and the netherlands, the kepskeptics, ty want more reassurance this is
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not going to distort markets we had the impasse yesterday no progress whatsoever we were exactly where we were at the start of the meeting let's see what will happen from speaking from several officials. the way they described the meeting was heated and tough discussions and one point got really ugly. it was during that moment actually that the minister from malta joined me. she stepped outside of the meeting and joined me for a quick interview. here is what she had to say about the differences of opinion. >> these things together in my point of view will put us in a situation where the mechanism will never been triggered. apart from other obstacles on that proposal, there is still a lot of work that needs to be done >> does that mean this is going to drag for several weeks or months will we actually see a cap on
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gas prices at any point approved at the eu level? >> these are exceptional times we don't have several months dragging if we want to arrive at a solution what malta needs and other member states need is a workable solution this is a situation that is affecting all eu member states when we look at the package, we want to make sure we have something where all eu member states are coming together because this is not a crisis that is impacting one member state or the other times is of the essence. >> so madame dalli says time is of the essence we got another emergency meeting of ministers meeting in december they are kicking the can down the road >> i was looking at dutch ttf is trading. 116 euro per megawatt hour
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the proposed cap is what >> 275 >> it would have happened or applied for one euro for one week >> it would not. they are 275 euro plus a second condition needs to be met. this is where the problem lies it needs to have a 58 euro difference against the lng for ten days >> it is redundant do you think it is time for the eu to change the approach and stop thinking about price caps what else can they do? >> not really if you ask poland or greece. these countries have little fiscal room to support consumers. and in order to support their households and firms, they need eu solutions that's why this debate is passionate on the other hand, germany has fiscal capacity and have several stimulus plans these other countries don't have
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that fiscal power. so, it is really hard to see how they will bridge this difference this price cap is needed when you ask poland and greece and spain. >> i would argue that from germany's perspective, they have more fiscal room than other countries, but bigger than that is they are desperate for lng. they are the one ws who need it the most they don't want to set the cap too low because they don't want to lose on the supplies. they are willing to pay what they need because the alternative is rationing they have a shortage. >> at the same time you have the commission saying we are not going to pay that price for gas going forward. there is a huge discrepancy of how they solve the energy crisis in 2023 and a concern how it plays out and, of course, how cold will it be? if it is very cold and the
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winter season is just beginning essentially, it will be costly for european leaders to actually refill the storages. let's not forget about china with lng top buyer in 2021. they might come back to the market in 2023 >> increasingly competitive market for lng sylvia, thank you for coming on set. we look forward to the continued discussion. nations are also split over capping russian oil prices we just talked about natural gas. now oil. seeking to pay enough to keep the taps turned on, but not so much to aid efforts in ukraine a g76 p proposal was seen too h by some and an too low for others the price cap is due to come in force on december 5th. coming up on "street signs." black friday deals are here, but are the deals what they seem to be we will have more on the holiday
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shopping season right after the break.
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> european markets make a muted start for six straight weeks of gains and rising covid cases in china weigh on sentiment. apple looks to intensify after a areworker unrest overwor restrictions. and german field curve hits the deepest level of inversion after the german economy grows more than expected. and elon musk announces twitter verified service will finally launch one week from today. all accounts will be mandated before the check mark activates.
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fr well, it is the day after thanksgiving that means black friday. shoppers are looking out for deals and investors have their eyes on retail sales adobe is forecasting online retail sales of $210 billion over the holiday season. 2.5% growth in 2021. that is on 2021. spending on electrics and groceries is set to account for half of the figure cyber monday is set to drive $11.2 billion of spending. making it the biggest shopping day of the season. online black friday deals will be tepid 1% growth.
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adobe says discounts will hit record highs of 30% off as retailers deal with supply and soft consumer demand buy now pay later is expected to gain traction as consumers look for ways to tighten budgets ahead of the suncertain year john stephens is here with us john, can you give us insight of how black friday and cyber monday shopping days are likely to compare for europe to the united states? >> yeah, it will be pretty tough as you say in the interim in the economic back drop the mix into the season. autumn in europe with the season with warm weather. retailers are coming in with more stockf you see heavy discounts as they need to convert that to cash
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it is a big time for customer acquisition. consumers don't have cash. if we look year on year, you can look at positive numbers in there. it will be the first real christmas outside of covid the fundamentally, it will be challenging. >> given the lag effect of the higher energy bills, i wonder to what extent we can extrapolate the trends we see during the holiday season into 2023 >> it is interesting actually. if we go back with a more positive angle autumn trading has been more resilient than expected. summer was awful at the end of august, retail sales were down. people were away the expectation is when people come back, they come back and ring straight in autumn trading is resilient.
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you are seeing volume growth in autos. i know we always say that. things are more resilient, energy prices will get up again. obviously the squeeze on income from mortgage rates will start to increase. the retailers with big increase in energy. the effects from the sterling and dollar starts to kick in it will be a tougher year next year if we look at forecast expectations against six months ago, the numbers are in the wrong place. another 10% growth next year and now we are flat for this year and expectations for next year down 3%. it will be down side to come next year will be worse. is it less for consumers i think flat sales means volumes will be down high to double
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digit levels that is more resilient than we thought versus the recession for next year. >> pretty negative outlook, john you talk about the ability of consumers to show up and spending when they are facing cost of living crisis. i want to bring up the level of stocks the retailers are sitting on you did say there is an anticipation that volumes may go up at what price? at what level of discounting do retailers need to fall to in order to clear the stock what does it do to the margins >> yeah, you come into this and it becomes about cash. you come into the autumn season and the ideal scenario is a cold snap gets sales moving especially when ordering is high are than retailers like given the economic back drop they will have to clear it
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they will pull back on ordering. it has to kick in january and february you will see late in the season with heavy discounting retailers were planning on flat sales. that implies volumes would be down anyway. this is exacerbating that to be fair, you know, it is a tough back drop. it is probably not as bad as we thought. coming into next year, a bit more positive lilt on it as we come into the recession it itself, it feels like those are the landing levels with eyes on how we get others. >> certainly feels like if you are a consumer, there are good deals to be had over the next couple days or weeks john, a question about valuation here because the retail sector
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in europe has been the worse performing sector down more than 30% points year to date. a lot of the negativity is bake into the price do you agree >> completely. if you look at the last four weeks, in my universe in the uk, we look at stocks. seven names are up over the last month with big increases 35 or 40% increase in stock prices some of the big ticket categories we are getting to a stage where numbers are getting to the right place and valuations are at 10-to-15 year lows the sector is under valued it is very difficult to call bottom if you go back to the financial crisis, the retailer is turning as the final downgrade came in and the numbers bottoming out and the sector out 40%
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>> interesting john stevenson, thank you for joining us >> thank you. 16 giant balloons and stewart the minion and turkey and garfield rode along for the macy's annual thanksgiving day parade the annual tradition since 1924 has drawn thousands of new yorkers along the two and a half mile route sara wallace filed this report >> reporter: a feast for the eyes a show stopping spectacular for the spectators mars marvelling h sights >> this is my seventh year best weather >> i like baby yoda. >> what is your favorite balloon? >> baby yoda.
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>> all of it being here with the crowd and floats and everybody i like the bands that's my favorite >> reporter: oh, yes those sounds ♪ ♪ >> reporter: 12 marching bands from as far away as mexico speaking of international. >> you are from spain? >> spain i love you parade macy's. it is beautiful. >> reporter: maybe it is the beautiful day or people tired of covid fatigue. this crowd is exuberant. >> we're so happy to be here yes! >> the best part is the energy,
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obviously. and being together with your friends and family. >> we waited 50 years to come to the parade. >> this is your first time >> first time. >> from? >> minneapolis, minnesota. >> my first time >> how does it feel? >> fantastic i got up at 3:00 a.m. to get here >> reporter: there were plenty of celebrities and more than 700 on clowns. who was the big effgest attract? >> santa >> reporter: there he was on the final float. signaling the official start of the christmas and holiday season >> you couldn't see our faces while we watched that package. i can assure you, i have not stopped grinning i love the macy's thanksgiving day parade >> i had to google who stewart the minion was i didn't know one was actually called stuart i love the latin speaker
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love to see people of all backgrounds. it is the start of the silly season a fun time this is the first time in years that everything is happening in person we had a couple of years of covid lockdowns that restricted acti activity it is nice to see everybody out. >> it is one thing about being an ex-pat. before you start cooking for the day of the. >> are you cooking today >> i am. >> what are you making in. >> stuffing and pumpkin pie. i have the ingredients >> i'm a sides girl. we will take a quick break maybe a little more thanksgiving chat when we come back twitter will launch the verify feature next week. we will discuss more of that after this break
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welcome back breaking news from china the central bank has gone ahead and cut triple r rate by 25
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basis points this is an effort to ensure ample liquidity in the market. this was rumored that it could happen this week and now we have confirmation they cut the bank reserve ratio by 25 basis points the new cut will release 500 billion yuan the weighted will be 7.8% after the cut. we discussed at the start that china is under major pressure as they deal with a new covid outbreak the efforts are designed to provide more support to the economy. >> and free up liquidity with respect to the property sector which is slowing down in china. big news from china. the uk and south africa are joining a partnership after the state visit from the president
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the visit is the first in years and the first head of state for king charles since he ascended the throne we have arabile here on set. i want to ask about the aspects and i read a note about the economist david lubin. he was trying to draw parallels with indonesia and south africa. because you reform minded presidents and exporting countries. if you look at the respective growth levels between the two, indonesia's growth rate is 4% in the past 10 years. south africa has averaged 1% what is holding south africa back >> it one word is eskom or electricity. that is the one thing that lacks or giving south africa no power
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in growth trajectory you have the rolling blackouts for the last several years that is how long president rhamaposa has been in charge i asked the president about that and said you have been in charge of this for that long. why has it not gotten better ramaphosa says there are issues that go beyond my seven years. he said there is sabotage and mismanagement of funds people are now put in cuts at some stage you are finding they are trying to move in the right direction it is still the one element that is holding south africa back you are rolling blackouts that happen on a consistent basis every day. if that happens, you don't have manufacturing which is key to south africa economy and exports cannot go out as they should
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this is what he had to say about trying to sort out eskom. >> it is almost like your car. your car cannot run forever for years without being serviced if you do that, it will break down it is a time based process you need to stop the car, have it properly serviced, and move and stop it again for service. we didn't have that. when the time the decision was then taken to build new power stations, those people who used to be well adapt who had the experience to build up power stations within eskom, they have l left they were told we are not building the problems with eskom is seeds were planted years ago rather than 2014.
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because we are dealing with huge complex machinery and it is not a one-day fix. it can never been. these are complex processes. >> so very important, there is that one element and according to him, he asked to transition into decardecarbonizing the eco. there is 7.1 billion pounds aided to south africa for that and a bulk comes from the uk, but it is in the form of loans president ramaphosa says those s should be in the form of grants. this was actually his plight in what he said about that. >> you want the transition which the uk is part of to be
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underpinned by increased grants. we calculated the grant component of the $8.5 billion and said it only amounts to 2.7% we like that to be upgraded largely due to the fact that south africa already carries a huge debt burden the just energy transition should be a transition to ensure we are addressing the challenges that workers are going to face and the challenges that communities where our fossil fuel generating power stations are as we transition from those power stations into renewable energy >> so very important to have that transition to greener gasses, but one thing is for sure, a lot of issues self made in south africa and energy will be the key factor moving
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forward. >> as it is for many countries there are structural issues in south africa arabile, thank you for being on set. turning to twitter elon musk says the platform will launch the verified feature next week it will launch gold colors to companies and blue checks to individuals. musk added that all verified accounts will have to be manually authenticated more drama at twitter. let's go back to the china story. really significant in the last 15 minutes pboc announced they are cutting the triple r rate which is set to release 500 billion yuan in long-term liquidity. it seems like this had been well flagged beforehand a couple of days ago, the
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state's council put in place the right conditions for the pboc to make the announcement. they wanted to do it before the end of the month >> let's put it in context this is the second time this year the pboc has cut this rate. the idea here is that the central bank is trying to ensure there is ample liquidity it is not the only measure they have put forward the bank of china also announced today it agreed to provide credit lines totaling 600 billion yuan to 10 property owners you mentioned the property sector when the triple r came out. authorities in china are trying to ease liquidity crisis in the property sector. they have the property sector and all of the problems there and the broader economic slowdown that particulars to be a problem because of covid
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in the last few days, the covid situation has absolutely worsened >> i think what is interesting is the line from the central bank and pboc saying it will not resort to flood-like stimulus. that is a direct quote what they are doing today is targeted it is specifically aimed at the banks and a triple r cut which releases liquidity for the banks. it is not a stimulus, per se, which they know could be infl inflationary and missallocated. a lot of the frost from the markets has been renewed we see a huge pull back in the real estate market in china. now the conditions are sufficient so we can actually start coming in and providing
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for the property sector. >> this is the narrative china is pushing for the last few years. not pushing flood-like stimulus in the economy i want to flag one thing on the covid front. nanjing city will conduct mass testing for five days. you have to complete one covid test within arrival and three tests within three dates how extreme the measures are compared to the rest of the world. >> it would be interesting to see the knock-on effects with other markets. let's look at other european markets. we are digging in negative territory. cac down and ftse 100 up .10 theirs we we had a lot of comments out talking about the possibility of
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further interest rate hikes. ecb talking beabout the fact th need to continue with the hikes. we will get a 75 basis point hike in december as well those meetings are interesting because so many people are talking about the central banks slowing down potentially with the ecb it doesn't feel like it happens. >> fascinating data from europe and the u.s. with that, we are bringing our show to a close. the coverage continues u.s. is back from holiday. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." kicking off the holidays and one of the most important and busiest shopping seasons as investors gear up for black friday and looking for positive week in the last three right now pointing to modest gains. developing overnight in china. lockdowns and restrictions across the country as covid cases close in on record highs and speaking of china, a closer look at


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