Skip to main content

tv   Street Signs  CNBC  November 30, 2022 4:00am-5:00am EST

4:00 am
that's all for this edition of "dateline". i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] hello and welcome to "street signs. i'm karen tso. investors are betting on china as a reported merger is fresh on rest the hang seng closes the month more than 25% higher, jumping in late trade as investors brush off weakness in china's factories. >> oil prices rise as opec plus reportedly prepares for deep
4:01 am
cuts and a ban on most of russian crude imports looms. meanwhile the markets will be looking ahead to the markets fair value with a key speech from jerome powell later today data crossing from italy at the top of this hour this is third quarterfinal gdp read don't forget when the flash estimate crossed a few weeks back, we had a surprise uptick in the market. we were trying to digest what was happening behind the scenes this has been confirmed up half a percent quarter on quarter plus 2.6% year over year in the second quarter, that was also confirmed with the yearly rate revised to 5% versus 4.9%
4:02 am
previously, according to i stat. this just crossing this was around the opening theme that tourism has been a supportive factor for the demand in italy this is a look at what we're seeing on the italian paper at this stage we're picking up a little bit on the yield in trade this morning. meantime to some of the other data, we've had first up today the cpi inflation came in at a 7.1% level on the year in november's preliminary reading that was in line with october's level and matching analysts' expectations according to reuters. i'm going to take you to some of the market action we've been witnessing across these board this morning in the green is how we've been starting this trading session. a pop for the last day of november, half a percent higher on the stoxx it's been a bump perhaps more window dressing but
4:03 am
certainly to the upside. if you think about the drivers here, the market has been closely taking cues from central banks, mainly the fed, just as to where we're going to see the slowing and pace of the rate hikes. that's been a strong narrative we're, of course, on the cusp of a further briefing from jerome powell that's important in the last beijing meeting. that could be the driver for the latter half of the session into the wall street trade later on today. the china theme also dominant this week. just a read-in on the protest and the changes that policy makers are likely to take from here around the covid restrictions that's also been a dominant factor for markets modestly higher is how we're tracking so far. let me take you elsewhere to the individual indices you can see it's modestly up across the board the ftse, we're through that 7500 mark, gaining more territories as you can see gaining more on the upside,
4:04 am
slightly stronger signals on the french stocks and german xetra dax, almost 16% leading the charge we are firmer in lockstep with the core on the italian stockmarket that's been keeping pace the smi a little stronger. the european markets have been strong it's also been a strong performance out of italy stunning performance as you take a look at the monthly trade on both of those market, but not too far off has been the level on the french market, almost 0.7%, 6 pre.3% on the ftse. judging the politics, the demands during the backdrop. elsewhere, leading 3% to 4% levels is what you're seeing above other international
4:05 am
markets but somewhat left behind versus the european boards to the individual sectors, let's see what has been gaining during the session. you see 1.2. stoxx also firmer. health care, a modest exchange telecoms in the red. to the greater china markets, there has been a huge focus on what's been playing out in china. again, talks, reports of more unrest in manufacturing hubs despite health authorities the ministry talking about covid restrictions this week the hong kong market rallying 2.1% up. a modest range from the shanghai composite to tshhe shenzhen. we've had early action in the markets. hong kong has beaten up part of
4:06 am
the local equity markets but look at the returns. 26.62% the technology names back in business after further measures to allow equity raisings 8.9% on the markets, not exactly shy of the gains we're seeing in some of these international markets. it's been out in front and outpacing some of those u.s. boards, 9.8% on the boards investors are bracing for a swath of data across the rest of this week. in addition to this morning's inflation readings, we will get harmonized cpi for the eu later. stateside we're waiting for the release of the second estimate of the third quarter gdp that will be followed by the release of the fed's beige book at the brookings institute now, that is in addition to the adp employment figures and the jobs survey.
4:07 am
thursday we will see u.s. initial jobless claims as well as pc inflation. one of the inflation gauges. and as we cap off the lead, it will be u.s. nonfund payroll days u.s. futures as we count you down to the session, we're perched stronger as you can see, the dow this hour chasing gains to the tune of roughly 60 odd points but in lockstep across the three boards it looks as though we're setting up for a slightly firmer day. let's take a look at the market action with chris wylie who's a chief investment officer nice to see you in person. how are you? >> great to be back. >> for those in the audience who are aware of this system, it tells you about the sentiment markets, pricing gauges as you read in on what we're witnessing into year end, we're hearing very mixed reports that you don't want to be necessarily too short in case we've got some upside coming on top of what
4:08 am
we've already said versus others saying we're going to test the loads. what does it tell you about the gauge of the market direction? >> it's a complicated picture, as it has been for most of the year it remains so. our traffic light system as you mentioned there focuses on a number of things, grade, momentum, sentiment. it's more on the psychology of markets. over the summer you saw that more and more. that's starting to manifest in the data now it's fueled the narrative that it's starting to pivot, if that's the right word.
4:09 am
of course, we have good inflation data adding fuel to the fire at the beginning of this month now we need confirmation of that narrative, so there's a little bit more at state because the markets have rallied on the back of the data we've had, so we do need that confirmation, which is making people twitchy. on the other hand, i would say that sentiment is still very gloomy one green light we've had is sentiment because it's a contrarian indicator by when others are fearful, and they have been fearful. i think that's still the prevailing mood. even the bulls are nervous because they're aware of this rather precarious balance and the need to confirm the narrative, which is starting to take hold. >> we pick up on valuation if you look at it, there's been a strong rally in november the dow, we're 8% off record highs in contrast to other areas of the global equity market that have been left behind. the nasdaq has barely moved for
4:10 am
the month in bear market territory. when we talk about valuations, we've seen a split surge of growth. >> very much so. it's still good and bad in parts. i think there is still something of a valuation problem in the u.s. particularly in the technology sector, despite the big setbacks still not cheap. actually it's been justified by the earnings performance this year they've had the worst earnings performance in that sector move outside of those sectors and move outside of it, it's much less of an issue. they're starting to look quite cheap. china is screening quite cheaply. there are value opportunities there. the question really is do we have the catalyst to start driving investors back into those markets? but you can see what a coiled spring it's become the value is there, the
4:11 am
sentiment is negative. get a bit of good news, and that's what we've seen this month. >> it's been all dominant this week i didn't know if we moved on to where we were on monday. we're assessing protests market is concerned about volatility from the unrest and what that means for the factory floor. we've had a lot of commentary. we've seen protests. protests reportedly continuing in various parts of china. have we got any more information to trade this because it feels as though companies might still make those decisions to relocate elsewhere, which impacts the supply chain. >> yes again, it comes back to this tension between depressed sentiment and news flow and the timelines of those news flow with protests, i'm not surprised the markets have taken them because they've seen to
4:12 am
authorities to change tack then we come back to the time line, how long will it take? will the markets wait that long? i don't think anyone absolutely knows the answer to that i know this being cheap, there's a risk of being out of those markets. so you don't want to be that you do need some exposure. you can see how much pent-up performance there is potentially, but there's also potential for shorter-term disappointment the chinese authorities, it's not in their nature. i think the messaging which is getting through to the people of china for such a long time and vaccination rates can't be changed overnight. so it's going to take time but, of course, the market's going to work with any indications of a change of direction. >> the cohen policy was only one issue when it came to china when you think about the labeling that china was no longer investable that came through from the tech
4:13 am
sector t sector there are trade tensions as well it rolled on from the trump administration to the biden administration we still haven't fixed the other major problems with china, have we doesn't that loom large for a lost of investors? >> yes i smile when i hear people describing any market or seattle classes on investable. i remember when china specifically in the beginning of this century when it started to perform. for years it has never been on investors' horizons. suddenly it became investable. now it's underperformed ho horribly i think that's a sign of revulsion that people say it's uninvestable so i think you have to look through that it will be investable if it keeps going up, take my word for
4:14 am
it it's the same issue that have always been issues there, quality of earnings, quality of governance, all of those it's been a matter of an issue of performance now you have got value now you have got value but it needs to be delivered on improved earnings performance, not just stabilization that you're starting to see in the chinese sector. >> it's a good reminder about the prospects and value as an equation here because if i can segue from the uninvestable to its poor cousin, europe, we've seen europe largely outperform the usps it's very unusual to have that type of performance, 8-plus percent on the dax and atlanta stoxx and the french market when parts of the u.s. market have barely performed when you look at the performance of the s&p 500, 2.2% with others left behind on the european
4:15 am
boards, what's going on? we're hearing europe will be the worst-case scenario versus the u.s. with oil, lack of bullets by the bank. why sit up >> this is a bit of a head scratcher in some ways, but actually when you dove into it, it starts to make a bit of sense. first of all, it's all about expectations so expectations with europe, there's a complete consensus europe was in a recession, down in the dumps what's the rate of change and where is it going in the u.s.? i'll track it. the rate of change has been deteriorating in the u.s. relative to europe, plus i think there is a bit of hope springing eternal in terms of, you know, the new year, and maybe with extreme economic pessimism, just any lifting, any improvement in that can have an effect, and
4:16 am
what can you buy if you want to pull it back from an existing underweight position on global growth, and the answer is, might be the end of china, still pretty iffy. you go to the dax, don't you that's the proxy and the value is reasonable there as opposed to stakes and quality of earnings. there's been no exuberance actually the forecast has been outperforming the u.s. so actually when you start to sift through it, it seems crazy, but it starts to make a bit of expense. >> doesn't it? thank you so much for stopping by, chris. chris wyllie, chief investment officer at connor broadley. renault-nissan reportedly set to announce a deal on the future of aliechbliance
4:17 am
the two are set to discuss they renault to look it into they're expecting to take a restru restructuring. hs hsbc says shareholders could do a buyback one the deal closes. it comes amid pressure from its biggest shareholder which is calling on it to spin off its business. coming up on this show, china's manufacturing sector shrinks as covid takes its toll
4:18 am
on the country's economy we'll have the details next. hi. i'm shannon storms bador. when we started selling my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster and thanks to shipstation's discounted rates we're saving a ton. honestly, we couldn't do it without shipstation join over 100,000 online sellers who get ship done with shipstation go to /tv and get 2 months free. ah, these bills are crazy. she
4:19 am
has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit >ft
4:20 am
4:21 am
jia jiang zemin has died from cancer he was chairman of central military commission from 1998-2005. the country's pmi is falling for the second straight month. it came in below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. it comes awake fresh covid restrictions in major cities as authorities battle a wave of new cases. former pbo senior adviser and mansfield professor has spoken with our asian colleague this morning and outlined the reopening options facing chinese authorities. >> there are many ways let's start with the first one the first is to relax the travel
4:22 am
restrictions so they go in and go out so that's number one it should be relaxed number two is to elect people to stay home instead of transporting to some hospital or facility once they're diagnosed with covid number three is to relax the restriction of people who are in close contact with people who have the covid, and also number four is to require people to stay home rather than to go to the hospital when they are diagnosed to save medical resources for the most urgent and severely ill people. so there are many -- there's a continuum spectrum of policy options. apple is expected to have a shortage of its newest high-end devices ahead of the holiday season after a series of clashes and
4:23 am
walkouts at its biggest factory in china they have slashed apple's revenue estimates for d december quarter by $8 billion. apple's main supplierier foxcons offering bonuses to entice factory workers to return. how bad is it looking as we talk about shortages with the holiday season >> it's interesting. a company like apple has really taken advantage of it. what we've seen now is the peril os reef lying on manufacturing in china given the zero covi policy as well as broader geopolitical issues. and just to focus on it, this accounts for 70% of apple's
4:24 am
iphones coming from this factory. responsible for the pro and pro max. when you think about the holiday season and apple and the impact it could v there's a potential to drag down the average selling prices of the iphone given the supply end of the more expensive iphones won't be gettingting on the market jpmorgan says the ability of customers to get their hands on it is lagging at the moment. it will take time. they say 5 million to 8 million units of demand could be affected in the december call. big, big impact. that could translate to $5 billion to $8 billion. >> hard to know when they want the high end device whether they substitute for something cheaper
4:25 am
in the apple range we know apple has been re reconfiguring the supply chain reuters was saying five years ago in 2019 china was the primary location, 44% to 47% of production sites that dropping to 21% 36% last year. they're slowly pulling back, aren't they. what does that mean for markets? >> it's important to note it's not just iphone but mac and apple watch and these other products that are moving aboard. the majority of iphones, still the apple core product is made out of china that's still a bit of a concern. but certainly for margins, i mean you've seen apple work with local partners in vietnam, et cetera, to get these factors up and running. the production costs in the country will vary.
4:26 am
but, of course, one thing we will see from apple, they're very good at maintaining price they're really good at maintains prieg despite recession. am commands such a premium with users and such stickiness with its customer base. you'll see the margins remain intact i think the risk is around selling the iphone if they're not selling the high end devices, that could really drag it down that's what they're focused for on this particular quarter. >> jpmorgan was saying one in four i phones to be made in india by 2025. that's what they anticipate. but in terms of what we're seeing on the ground, protests have been a dominant theme this week and investors are trying to judge whether health authorities have had any impact with the commentary about the restrictions being fleshed out you were based in china for a number of years and this is the latest hub that we're watching,
4:27 am
reports that there have been clashes between protesters and police are awaiting confirmation of that. this is a manufacturing hub. what does that mean that we're still seeing protests if they're happening on the ground despite some attempt to change the narrative? >> there's still a lot of discontent with the policies in china, particularly in major cities where you have slightly more affluent crowds, you have people used to traveling outside of their city and outside of the country, which is not the same as if you go into the countrysides in china. i think you are seeing those pockets of discontent happening in a lot of big cities we're seeing it in guangzhou now. we're seeing citizening traveling to hong kong and southeast asia as well it signals supply chain disruptions are set to continue for the near future for apple and others that rely on chai nachlt sometimes you order on time and you see the wait times for it you know it's coming from somewhere in china, often the
4:28 am
guangdong province where guangzhou is placed. they're likely to continue for apple and other technology companies relying on manufacturing hardware outof china and other areas. >> it started with supply chain issues and potentially finishing. thank you very much. for more on foxconn's plans to encourage workers to return, you can check out the story on coming up on the show, opec allies will meet virtually there weekend instead of in person could that be a sign a big policy change is coming? we'll discuss after the break.
4:29 am
4:30 am
my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month
4:31 am
it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers go to and get 2 months free welcome to "street signs." if you're just joining us, i'm karen tso. here are your headlines. investors are betting on easing lockdown curbs as there are reports of fresh unrest.
4:32 am
jumping in late trade as investors brush off weakness in china's factories. opec rise. they apply the deepest supply cuts and a ban on russian imports looms. meanwhile markets will be looking for rate guidance ahedge of the beige book release with a key speech from jerome powell due later today. ♪ u.s. futures moving higher at this stage.
4:33 am
more than 100 points to the upside dow jones futures, that's slightly higher than where we were perched about 30 minutes ago. nasdaq also higher, 14 points on the s&p. so it looks like a firmer trade to round out the trading month it has been stronger for the dow. a little bit for the s&p not quite as much as the european markets have enjoyed, but still it has been progress, this as the nasdaq has pretty much flat lined during the month of november. the boards in europe are gaining at this stage. the modest improvement, 0.4 to half a percent now giving way to stronger gains 0.8% on the ftse, also climbing up further through the 6,700 angle on the french market almost 1% of the green even the ibex that was very close to the flat line now starting to show visible gains
4:34 am
0.8 on the italian market. i dare say there's a lot of rang ling behind the scenes with jay powell and what impact it will have on the dollar we've made territory gains for the month of november as the dollar has given up some of its territory. it's been attempting to pour some of that back in the last week or so, you can still see one of three, 66, we're traveling on euro. not far off the 120 handle on sterling dollar beats the yen at this hour oil firmly in focus at this point. it's been somewhat of a choppy train. we're 79.5 on it just around the 84 pre.5 mark on
4:35 am
brechblt brent. you can see how choppy it's been around the protests in china now the pivot toward the supply angle as opec and its allies will meet on sunday amid expectations that they will pursue deeper supply cuts. we're joined with more dan, we're expecting a nice in-person meeting with a christmas backdrop, but it's going to be held virtually does that have any signaling function at all? >> it might, karen, and that's the interesting angle here as you say, oil prices halting gains ahead of the opec meeting on sunday, now set to take place online rather than in person opec has two options here. the first would be to consider supply cuts to counter market weakness we've seen through november oil has given back most of its gains for the years. there are also some technical indicators that might suggest the market is oversupplies opec and his royal highness, the
4:36 am
saudi minister, seem to have been proven correct. last month he also said it may become painful in the month to come opec may be in a capacity building mode despite the political implications we'll have to wait and see of course, the other option would be to roll over and wait to see how disruptive markets are by the yet to be decided price cap and the eu sanction on russian seaborne oil which will take effect on monday. that is the day following the opec plus meeting. so we have this confluence of really critical issues coming together at once around the opec meeting. the other issue we've been talking about this week and on the minds of policy makers is the uncertainty on china and how quickly we might see demand coming back if policy makers are generally indicating a rollback of some of the zero covid measures that have been in place
4:37 am
for several years now following this recent wave of protests that we've seen. so that's something that's also probably being factored into the opec plus mind melds right now in terms of what the analysts are saying, other at rbc, they have said this decision to meet virtually was a signal opec wants a no-drama optics meeting and meeting online probably increases the likelihood of a rollover decision and that was backed by analysts at standard charter as well. they say the case for rolling over the current charter is stronger as a result so we watch and wait to see exactly what comes out of this meeting, but nonetheless, goldman sachs and in particular this interview steve has done with jeff currie in the last 24 hours also suggesting we might see an output cut, opec sticking with this brent forecast for next year. the direction of markets still very uncertain at this point and so much lies in the hands of the
4:38 am
opec meeting that is hatching on sunday back over to you. >> thanks for the preview. dutch tef futures have pulled back after nation fill their gas reserves with new data showing they're set to end the year prices are at a six-year high and supply issues in norway and the uk eu nations are trying to hash out an agreement on a gas price cap, which could see a market correction mechanism if they breach 275 euros for two weeks despite that, they're set to shut down a gasfield by the end of 2024, this became apparent after it was determined the
4:39 am
field causes earthquakes the dutch government says 13,000 homes would be at risk for collapse if the extraction continues. let's get out to julianna tatelbaum with more. it's tough, isn't it with the earthquakes and supply shock and not enough energy for europe over the coming months. >> reporter: it is a major dilemma, that is absolutely right, karen, and an incredibly controversial issue here in the netherlands. the country is home to as you said the largest gasfield in europe and one of the largest in the world, but it's essentially been deemed useful because of these earthquakes that extracting gas from the field cause. you've got people who live in the area, work in the area incredibly against the idea of using the gasfield for extraction so back in 2018, the dutch government after a major
4:40 am
earthquake in 2012 agreed to wind down production and eventually end it all together right now the gas field is operating the lowest operation production levels. the plan is to wind it down completely in the next couple of years. clearly the war in ukraine and gas on the continent has completely changed the energy equation in europe, and now there are major question marks and pressure from some within the netherlands and outside on the dutch government to potentially reconsider this position and their intention to wind down gas production i had a chance to catch up with the state secretary who is the state secretary for natural excavation -- extraction here in the netherlands and asked him what it would take to change that stance. take a listen. >> you're only going to use more if the safety issues from the fact are so big you're more or less forced.
4:41 am
so, for example forecast you cannot heat your hospitals anymore or your schools or you cannot produce oil where you need a lot of gas, then, of course, it's always open to discuss honing it, but that's what we mean by last resort. germany used groningen gas and so does belgium. it's already filled with gas now. there's not a lot we can do now. but these are the kinds of emergencies you should think about. >> so as of the most there's no plan for the dutch government to reverse course and begin pumping more gas out of groningen, but it's not something they've ruled out completely
4:42 am
in the meantime the netherlands has been ramping up its lng import capacity and assigning new contracts to shore up energy supply for the country in time for this winter and next take a look at what the minister had to say for the prospects for the netherlands for next year. >> i'm a little bit less concerned about this winter. this winter will be okay with low temperatures next year we can't use any more russian gas to fill up the storages, so it means we're going to look into, for example, increasing our capacity even more than we did right now and now we're going to think about it a little earlier because last year because of this war, we only found this out in the spring, so we had to buy massively gas, which, of course, had consequences. >> what's fascinating about the energy story here in the netherlands, it mirrors what we're seeing in many countries
4:43 am
across europe. we're seeing governments having to reconsider their energy strategies, the germans using the likes of coal again when they had no plans of doing so, keeping nuclear energy for longer than they intended. in the netherlands, there's discussion about potentially reconsidering its plan to wind out gas-x traction from groningen. the energy crisis has changed things for the european countries. of course, we're looking at the price gap and other means. a lot to play for. we're going to be heading north to groningen later today we're live from the field tomorrow do stay tuned. we're also going to be speaking to the netherlands' energy minister later on today. we spoke to the greek energy minister last week, so we're making the rounds, and we'll bring you that interview and his comment as little bit late sneer julianna, thank you very much for bringing us that story
4:44 am
our colleague steve has caught up with the former ceo director at the goldman sachs conference earlier this week and what could be done to boost high energy production >> australia is in a fantastic position to be part of the energy transition in the same way they've been a significant export market for australia. it can play a similar role in the future the jobs, the skills that come with that. so the government has an important role to play other in this business and industry, we have our part to play we see this as a unique opportunity for australia to lead the world in an energy transition. >> you've had a new prime minister or two. you might slightly be ahead of us the fact of the matter is, certain governments are not amin tobl the green initiatives and are not backing it as well
4:45 am
are you at the whim of the political psych snl. >> we've had a change in government in australia this year and we've had a prime minister who has been there 40 or more days but with more ambition climate change targets and i do think there's recognition at a state level and fed level. we have an abundance of energy, sun, wind, hydro opportunity so there is a recognition that with the right support and with the government working with the businesses, we have the same challenges so we have to continue to advocate. coming up on the show, fed chair jerome powell is due to speak later on today with investors watching out for any infrastructure fed rate hikes. we'll have more after the break.
4:46 am
science proves your best sleep is vital to your mental, emotional, and physical health.
4:47 am
and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold. introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number.
4:48 am
the u.s. federal reserve will publish its final beige book today following word from
4:49 am
fed chair jay powell they'll be watching adc employment figures and the job survey due out today citigroup says u.s. inflation will reach 4.8% with the fed interest rate topping out between 5.25 and 5.5%. citi groupe analysts have looked at growth. we're joined by andrew let me ask you about jay powell at this stage. i think the market is wondering whether we get any change to hawkish commentary of late, and there doesn't feel like any reason why, the job honing going in his favor without having to increase interest rates. surely that's a win for the u.s. economy. >> yes, it would be, if they didn't have to anticipate the
4:50 am
call for rates of around 5.25% and 5.5% our baseline is a little bit below that they're likely to go to 5.5% but certainly not 6% as some indicated earlier. we would expect more of the same the chair powell and fed governors as well going forward to recommend acknowledge there's quite a bit of ward to do in the battle against inflation and the outcome can be measured in years, not weeks and months. >> andrew, i want to pick up on the difference in the forecasts because if we take the top end of the citi forecast of 5.5% versus the bottom of 4.5%, we have 100-point basis spread, what gives out the different scenarios in your view >> for now we're looking for signs of the data. we pay attention to the jobs data to see if there's continued positive trends there. expectations have come out to around $10 million jobs.
4:51 am
if it was below that, that would be further signs of progress we'll look to see if it's another positive report. by that i mean lower inflation i would say at least 4.5% really is our call, so the odds of -- [ indiscernible >> there's been much debate about the downturn we could be witnessing if that could happen and twhether there could be a sha shallow recession. what do you make of that view and the potential for this whole goldilocks scenario
4:52 am
>> we look at the depth and relation perceptions equally so, so we would state that, you know, rather than -- rather than, you know, point to, you know, specific debts or recession, we would rather compare it to historical examples you look at what happened in 2008 and then again in 2020. we clearly don't believe that, you know, considers are going to warrant those types of comparisons. again, very painful, albeit a brief recession lasting around three, maybe four quarters and in terms of unemployment rate increases, certainly there will be some, not what we saw in the u.s., upwards of 10% back in 2008 and again in 2020. >> there are really elements of pain being felt across the economy and we saw that through two different data points yesterday.
4:53 am
case-shiller showing us another slump. you look at the key pre trimetrc in the housing market. feeling the inflation and higher interest rate. how would you sum up the extent of what main street is feeling at this stage? >> again, this is going to be a recession. whether mild or not, it's going to be painful. you'll have an increase by a percent, that's still 1.5 million individuals out of work who are experiencing significance pain during that period sam same same with the housing market you expect home prices to fall as we try to navigate this situation to bring down inflation. >> pick up on the word
4:54 am
"inflation" because there are a lot of factors around the energy price. the other element has been around the supply chachbl we've been watching out of china the covid restrictions and trade on top of it. there's a concern it will mean higher margins and therefore higher inflation down the track. what do you make of the impact we're witnessing from the development of the anti-globalization push, and whether we're going from out of the frying pan into the fire when it comes to the supply chance at this stage >> we look at more research that's been going on for some time, even pre-pandemic. the pandemic accelerated certain aspects of that. again, like trying to get inflation down closer to 2% we're talking impact of globalization and those types of things being measured in years rather than months and weeks we'll have to see how the data
4:55 am
turns out. for now with the inflation north of 7% here in the united states, there's still a lot of work to be done before we have more than one of these conversations >> i think we just scratched the surface on some of the trade issues the biden administration hasn't exactly repaired any bridges that were impacted by the trump administration with china. if anything, it feels like some of these issues are getting worse, particularly when it comes to chips. >> it certainly does feel that way in terms of geopolitical tensions and trade in certain sectors. you mentioned chips to protect certain issues on both sides of that going forward, we expect this to be a multi-year effort this is going to be a globalization where global tlad levels continue to trade downward, although -- there may
4:56 am
be certain areas that are voluntary, but expecting them to change significantly near term >> andrew, thank you very much for weighing in. andrew patterson, chief strategist at van gguardvanguar. we were up 100 points a little earlier on the show, now 37 points. it looks somewhat choppy a big day will be fleshing out with jerome powell watch for more data around the work force that is all key for the market today. that is it for today's show. i'm karen tso. thank you very much for joining me stay with the channel. "worldwide exchange" is up next.
4:57 am
hi. i'm shannon storms bador. when we started selling my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster
4:58 am
and thanks to shipstation's discounted rates we're saving a ton. honestly, we couldn't do it without shipstation join over 100,000 online sellers who get ship done with shipstation go to /tv and get 2 months free. xfinity rewards is a program whose sole purpose is to say thank you with experiences big, small, and once in a lifetime. sometimes it's about cheering hard enough to shake the stadium. let's go! -haha, woo!
4:59 am
sometimes it's as simple as movie night right here at home, on us. you mean the world to us. so we're bringing you closer to what you love. kinda like this- welcome to 30 rock! join xfinity rewards for free on the xfinity app today. our thanks. your rewards.
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here is your top 5 at 5. fed chairman jay powell front and center as investors await new comment and hints on a possible policy pivot. unrest in china once again as police clash with protesters over covid restrictions and lockdowns. now beijing is stepping up its rhetoric live from the bahamas, former ftx sam bank man freeld set to speak today about the run-up and eventual chance of his firm with


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on