>> yeah, and the activist investor call has been having a rough year, down 4% today. it has been a very diluted company over the last few years. >> yeah, busy week ahead let's get to the judge in "the half." welcome everybody to "halftime report." one says buy and one says sell joining me for the hour today, stephanie link, joe teara tear nova s&p is down about 1.5% and 357 is where we are in the

ten-year the market may not like that because the implications that has for the fed, but let's just go the bull or bear root tom lee, he still sees a rally into year end towards 44 to 4500 mike wilson says it's time to fade it. time to fade it. take profits what side are you on >> i am kind of right down the middle >> that doesn't work >> i am. all right, i am right down the middle medium term, and i think we are going to be in a trading range for a while because there are so many unknowns, and we have weeks where we get good economic data, and today we got good service orders and last week was horrible. we do not know what the fed is really going to do, but they are restrictive and we know that, and we don't know the implications because of the lag on that, and i think you could have a rally into the end of the year a relief rally

>> do you still believe that >> yeah, i do. everybody is negative and defensive. i am taking opportunities where i can in terms of buying on weakness, selling where i have less conviction names, and we'll talk about some of those in a bit. i do think we can rally here into the end of the year again, medium term, though, i worry because we have so many unknowns all that being said, we have been talking the last couple of weeks and i am starting to feel better about earnings because -- >> how >> because the dollar pulled back and that hurt earning nationals, and the dollar waepbgwa weakness, i think. supply chains are freeing up a little bit, so yeah, demand is going to be the question mark. maybe companies can offset the weak demand with a little bit other help, a little more -- a few more tail winds we have not had in a long time

>> i could easily go to jim here and he would suggest we could have a year-end rally, too, however, i will go to joe first. >> nice tease. >> i think i know what side of the boat you are on and i don't know what side joe is on 4400 would be a 9% upside from here, and that's tom lee, okay is the time to buy into the rally -- i don't know if you can call it a rally at this point, or fade it simple two strategies >> last week, we got a driven rally, and now the market, can it go another 10% to its 44, 4500 it still can >> do you think it can or not? the bottom line -- everybody wants to answer the same question everybody wants to answer the same question. joe, do you think we will have a rally until the end of the year

or are the hopes dashed? >> december 13th, 8:30 in the morning, what is cpi last time cpi came out in november, what did the market rally? 7% off that. so that easily read. what happens on december 31st, we are at 4500 what happens there after you have to ask yourself that question is the overwhelming amount of challenging headwinds that have ham strung the market for the entirety of 2022, do you have clarity rinse out? no, you don't. i think you have to be cautious, and to steph's point you have to maintain -- >> steph said it could be better than what people think >> i still want defensive positioning. i will tell you one other thing from an asset allocation perspective, and i am hearing this from a lot of conversations

i am having, on january 1st, when you measure equities and now the emerging markets with china reopening, and there's renewed interest in the fixed income in the opportunity and fixed markets. >> if you look at the data steph points to today, the jobs data is not pointing to a recession, and wages are up and the journal puts out that they are penciling higher rates because of wage growth, and maybe that's what is in part that the market doesn't like today, and that in and of itself puts a cap on the market. and the economy for that matter. >> depending, scott, on what actually happens with inflation. i am looking at my screen, and looking at gasoline futures, and that's below the level on december 31st of last year all of ukraine, all of that

impact on fuel, take it out. >> the fed doesn't care about that, though >> absolutely -- >> not as much they care more about wages, right? you know that. >> what they care about, and it's cpi we will agree on that. they care on cpi, and what goes into cpi includes wages and rents and goods prices and fuel prices what i am saying is relevant what you are saying is relevant, too. what i am trying to dictate and put forth is the idea of a soft landing, the odds of that are increasing, but that -- >> are they? >> i believe so because what is a soft landing it's full employment, which we clearly have got it's a strong economy, which we clearly got. it's decreasing inflation. this is a hypothesis that is partially proven out by the october inflation number, but joe makes a good point you have to see november's inflation point and we have ppi this friday, and was october a

blip that or the start of a trend of the inflation coming down more rapidly than the fed thinks >> what about the headlines -- >> it matters to my call, but inflation is coming down more rapidly -- >> but, jim, more pce is what the fed looks at look at 5% year over year growth and they want it to be 2%. >> headed in the right direction, and it doesn't matter, and no way the november core cpi will be anywhere near 2%, and i don't think that's what you are saying -- >> i am not saying that. it's a different thing that inflation. >> i believe it's 6.2% for core cpi -- >> i have it at 7.3. >> if you get numbers better than those, steph, i think the market will rally. >> yeah, and core pce is what

powell talked about last wednesday. that's what he's looking at because of the wage importance within the core pce. >> they all matter core pce is traditionally what the fed has looked at, and this year it shifted to cpi are the numbers coming in better than expected? what is the trend? i will tell you the ppi this friday also matters? >> i agree, they are front and center, friday and then tuesday. where are the risks skewed right now, a big trend line for the record highs risks are on the down side, and if this number is in line we will not rally if the mark is at 3700, we could rally from that. the risks right now are on the down side. am i cautious? yes. we could settle in and bring this market down to a level where it can rally after the fed, you know, takes forth from the cpi number

>> so stephanie link, you made a move in the market that doesn't scream of somebody who is that cautious, okay you brought cleveland -- >> i am not that cautious especially into the end of the year >> you bought this for the three weeks? >> well, the way this thing trades it could be -- i am a long-term investor, and i like the story and the stock is down 25% year to date and trades at five times earnings and i like what they are doing in terms of their balance sheet. i think the demand equation gets improved because of the infrastructure bill, and auto is recovering nicely. i think the risk and reward is good here. >> this is soft landing purchase >> yeah. you don't buy cleveland-cliffs if you think we are going into a recession? >> yeah, i don't know, and atlanta fed gdp now is looking

for 3% growth, and even if we go to 2% and or 1.5%, this stock is so cheap >> it's cheap for a reason let's go back to the fact that it's hard to by cyclical stocks like this exposed to the global economy -- >> right, and you pushed back when i bought cater pillar, and i do lean more scyclical i have been overweight in energy and industrial materials and frustration as well, and i am trying to be balanced in the economy and i think it will slow i think the sectors i am overweight in are under owned and under appreciated and quite cheap and has cash flow. >> i will go to jim first. >> appreciate that the trigger for your trade to work is the dollar it's not so much that you need to see the economy make this

dramatic battleship turn you just need relief for the u.s. dollar. i think a lot of the material story, whether it's freeport or new core, fmc, a lot of that materials story is going to work you are getting the glimpse that maybe the peak dollar story -- >> what if china comes back as well >> i think that is being priced into the market right now. >> slowly. >> china is moving towards a full reopening >> i agree, but that's going to be more tailwinds for these kinds of stocks. >> good points you make. cleveland-cliffs, and jim owns it and is a huge supporter of it so i know what he's going to say. what about you how would you grade that >> i like the stock, and i like the dollar, the fact that it's down i am a little worried now that the dollar has support, and it's a little headwind, and i see a

soft landing people are talking about consumer credit -- >> you see a soft landing, too >> i see a soft landing. i don't think the economy is going to rollover, and we will smooth into the second quarter of next year i like cleveland-cliffs, and i don't own it right now >> i can't get past the fact of how can we meake calls like that -- if you make a call like that, you have to assume the fed is not going to get tighter as we think, and you have to assume the lag affects that are undoubtedly going to occur are not going to be as dramatic as history or conventional wisdom would suggest. >> yeah. you are right. right now, so they are pricing at 50 basis points in december i am concerned we see the 25 basis points in february priced in becomes 50, and that's where

i am cautious. and the dollar is back below 7 -- against the chinese yuan. we could see a story from around the world, and the u.s. as well, and there's a lot of support at the 3.5% if the ten-year moves up it will start to tighten again we could evolve to slowing things down, but i see a soft landing. >> energy out performed when interest rates got above 4, so it's possible the commodities could work with the dollar where it is or if it firms up a bit. >> but, commodities can perform in a slowing economy that has been proven before. >> the dollar, which has been brought up a lot, is based on differences and projections there of, and your comment,

scott, was dead on, and the peak fed funds rate is going to be below that 5%, and powell is talking about and the market believes, that's why the market rallied in part. >> the market for right now believes it, and not necessarily because inflation is coming down so fast, and it's that the economy may be weakening below the surface enough that the fed is not going to be able to go above 5% >> i think we will agree that they don't say in the headlines of the "wall street journal" why the dollar is down, but there's a convincing argument that can be made and i am trying to make it, part of the reason the dollar is down on the perception the fed won't have to raise as much and there's other costs and et cetera, and wage prices are high, scott, and your interview with jeremy siegel on friday afternoon, i hope everybody saw

it, because it's friday and at 4:00 and everybody checked out -- >> why is that hard? >> huh >> why is that hard? >> well, you were there. you made that social commentary of we are going to hit workers with inflation and take their jobs away. that doesn't strike me as correct. >> the distortion is still there. the wage move month over month came from transportation and warehouse. the number of employed dropped, and they lost jobs in that sector >> the other move that you made, steph, yousold target and that was to fund the dollar general buy you recently did >> i still like target a lot >> it's an interesting one to sell >> it was down a lot and was painful, but when general dollar was down and had an 11% year over year revenue growth and 35% in growth from revenues from

2019, and i like what the management is doing, and to me i had to make a choice and it was a painful one to sell target, and i would buy it back maybe at some point, and i had less conviction in target in terms of the timing of when they are going to see better inventories and margins. no doubt in my mind it's coming in 2023, and i think i have a lot more time on my hands with that one versus dollar general which i thought was an absolute overreaction >> the move today in oil is interesting, joe, considering -- i bring it up because it plays into a move you made it was up and now it's down. >> uh-huh. >> it was above 80 and now it's below 80, for a number of reasons. there's opec news today and china reopening expectations gas today is down 20% since thanksgiving, since thanksgiving >> yeah. >> we spoke about a week and a half ago with steven weiss about

his sell in eqt, and i said if it broke i would do the same, and that's what appeared in eqt, and i moved to the sidelines and i am happy i did today i have not traded eqt very well over the last year and a half or so, and i mentioned it a few times on air, and be careful on the oil, and there's a lot of ships out at sea containing russian oil, and i think the russians got ahead of the announcements today and flooded the market you have a lot of cargo out there that will resolve itself and it will resolve itself, really, over the next six to eight weeks. i don't know where we will land with energy, probably for a good month to month and a half. i will maintain my exposure at overweight towards energy. >> we have not seen you in a while, so we have a few moves i wanted to get to sofi, you sold it?

>> yes >> warner brothers discovery, you sold and shopafi you sold and netflix you sold let's start there. >> in august it was 330, and that's a tremendous amount of technical resistance and i am cautious of the market right now and i am trying to find out, where can i raise some cash. we are rotating a bit and looked at disney, and if the market comes in and move that cash there. as for warner brothers and sofi, they were trades i was looking for names at a low level that would move the most >> we have a new segment that we wanted to mention today, and it's called grade my trade where you can reach out to us and the investment committee is going to go over a trade that you made and you will let us know what it was and they will tell you what they think shopify was one we got from a

viewer named jr. this is not your typical trade and he's looking for an incredible amount of up level. what is your opinion of the trade? 3,000 calls on the january 6th 250 strike, and so to say that's -- >> that's a bit of a yolo trade. right now we are running into big resistance at 45 even bigger resistance at 50 if shopify can consolidate, it will be an update. it's a tough, tough spot here. a lot of resistance overhead, and the timing, you may want to wait for a pull back before taking upside on that. >> i appreciate the viewer writing into us, and we will have the investment committee grade the trade. speaking of resistance, and it

goes back to the conversation from the top of the show is whether we think we are going to have a rally or not until the end of the year, and resistance, apple, apple may play a role in that conversation of whether we have a rally or not. i am looking at apple, and it was in the 130s and now in the 140s do you think that has bottomed out for the near term? >> i think it's hard right now right? i wouldn't be surprised to see it give back, and even if production of the iphone gets back up and running, you are talking about end of december into january this quarter is already going to be pretty poor in terms of the units of iphone. >> it was up today, by the way, and now it has turned negative it was up in a tdown tape. >> yeah, i am hearing 1 million to 2 million -- i don't know

it was a beneficiary from apps and all that, and for me at 23 times forward it's just not that compelling, scott. i think you know i have been in meta, and it has been painful and at least i can get around the valuation and i don't think much has to go right for that stock to recover substantially in 2023. >> how much has to go right for the apple for the market to have the tom lee rally? >> that's a good question. the producers asked me what my thoughts were on apple, and i said at the time, i don't care i am only one person and not trying to be provocative, but i sold half of my position two months ago, so i am below the market weight by more than 50% it's below an average positioned size for me, and it will be fine and nobody will say it's a terrible stock, but is this where the leadership is coming from no scott, to your question, i am

only one question, and i am telling you i don't care about apple, but i wake up and care about boeing and wind resorts, and i heard joe grunt so i will let you give it to him i don't think a lot of people care about apple >> he means ball, not business >> okay. >> it's a stock. it's a stock with four letters in its symbol. >> what percentage of weighting on the s&p is this >> 6%. >> what is the rest of the weighting, joe >> historically -- >> 93.5. >> okay. whatever >> go ahead. >> so historically, for apple to have a 6.5 weighting in the s&p, in addition beyond that -- by the way, my opinion of apple is

apple made its low in the second quarter in june, and held above the low and should be fine from here, and it's towards the end of the year so you are engaging buyback right now with apple as well, and i wouldn't be surprised to know that as well if you tell me apple will fall back to the june lows, the market is not rallying if you say apple will sit between 140 and 145, and it will not go below whatever number you want to pick >> mathematically, the rest of the market can rally -- by the way, let's go to what has been happening in the last few weeks. dow jones has been rallying, and not because of apple and it has been kicking the snot out of apple. maybe it's a dollar, joe, and you make a convincing case on that, but my case is still i got you at 6.5 percent hang on. go back 20 years ago the market leaders there were

the tech stocks coming out of the 1990s, and they did not do well in the odds amazon did not do well -- all right, go on >> thank you straight ahead -- i appreciate that very much. stocks coming off their best weeks since spring, and wall street turning bullish on the reopening of beijing thedesk will debate that we're back in just two minutes at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

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♪ welcome back let's go to d.c. now there's a news alert for us. >> a survey by the business roundtable says overall the index fell 11 points, and plans for hiring plunged 17 points the capital for investment decreased seven points, and expectations for sales dropped eight points in a statement the chair and gm ceo said with continued supply chain challenges, many ceos remain cautious about expectations for the next six months. they called on congress to passkey corporate tax rates by the end of the year, including

permitting reform. >> thank you the latest headlines there from the business roundtable. china stocks take a look. they are rallying again today. morgan stanley turns bullish on the space. are you buying any of these stocks i don't want to know about u.s. stocks that have exposure to china. i want to know about the al alley -- >> i don't trust it. >> still >> no, i don't trust it. i don't trust the policy i think there's a little weight lifted from the asset class, and these are areas that consorts their own commodities, and china imports them i mentioned with you on over time last week, if you want to

have exposure, you buy the china atf. >> but you feel comfortable buying the etf >> not comfortable buying it here, no >> steph >> no, i am with joe tra transparency there's no transparency from china based companies. to me i do play china, and i have a lot of exposure to china from -- cat only has 9% -- >> starbucks >> estee lauder has 24% of their exposure in china, and starbucks for sure >> the difference here is the exposure that those companies have are to the chinese economy. the reasons that joe suggests he's uncomfortable are because of the chinese regulations, the regulators you can't trust one -- i mean,

you can say what you want about the economy, but you get my point. two different fundamental reasons. >> it's a lack of transparency, and the companies are not transparency and they don't have control, and the government comes in and takes over a ceo overnight and how do you value something like that, even at a big discount i get exposure from the companies i just mentioned, and the stocks that i own, anyway, are down so much on china. if you get the reopen they will certainly benefit and i can sleep at night a little better owning the ones i own. >> did you buy any of these as a maneuvering in the market? >> don't trust it. k web is 100% off the lows and can't buy it here. i don't trust the direction and the policies surrounding it. >> are these things in your estimate uninvestable forever?

>> scott, i don't see how to get my arms around this. i like taking risks because that's where reward comes from, but i have to know the risks i am taking, and maybe paramount doesn't have as many subscribers, and that's a risk i am willing to take with china, i have no idea what the risks are, and steph said it eloquently, and bill is with me on this, i hate that term uninvestable, and i hate it but this is the one case i will use it let's get the headlines now with bertha coombs >> here's what is happening at this hour. russian leader vladimir putin driving across the bridge two months after a massive explosion ruined that roadway. ukraine never claimed responsibility elsewhere in russia, authorities

are investigating reports of explosions near two military air bases inside their country this comes as reports took specific steps to keep the rocket launcher system to prevent it from firing long-range missiles. the ukrainian military and the biden administration declined to comment to the journal and deliberations are under way in the trump tax trial the ceo testified in the trial and the company could incur fines if convicted we have the etf playbook for year and tax lost harvesting one of our calls of the day is a sector today, and it's been beat

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♪ welcome to the etf portion a lot of investors have had losses particularly in tech stocks and other funds tech stocks allow investors to offset losses against capital gains taxes on other securities. can you use them for tax harvesting let's talk about that. dj, you were the face of schwaab. how are some of them using atfs

for tax loss aharvesting >> it has been a rough year for investors, and everything is down it's down materially so it's a really note-worthy year on that regard. what we are seeing advisors do is take interesting tactical steps to reduce tax obligations for their investors. it's something you should do and something you should consider if you are not aware of this, engage with your adviser and tax adviser as well, and do you have any investments on the books you have made in the last few years where you are at a loss where you can sell those and realize the loss and keep your exposure in atfs. >> we will discuss practical applications on how to do this on "atf edge," and you are seeing flows around this, am i correct? >> we are. we are one example, bob, is in the bond space. if you bought a total return

fund, chances are you are down on that investment somewhere between 12 and 15% so a simple example might be if you had a $25,000 investment and right now it's worth $22,000, and sell it at $22,000 and take a $3,000 loss, and invest the proceeds in an aggregate bond atf, and then the $3,000 loss can be used to offset an ordinary income. you just saved yourself $1,000 when you file for taxes in april of 2022. >> that's a practical application. we will have more on that on " "eftf edge." i see you have a combination of dividends and defensive stocks being very potent this year, no? >> yeah, we're heartened by the inflows we have seen in the

schwaab u.s. dividend etf. that space, the dividend space has been the number one asset gathererer if you look at factor investing, and that's the biggest winner among that space, and we think there's attributes that give investors comfort, and to your point it's buying companies that can afford to pay the dividends, not just pagying the dividends. >> we will have more on tax loss harvesting coming up at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. and we will talk more about dividend investing as well "half-time" returns right after this this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

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i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about. welcome back it's time for the call today bullish calls on some airlines morgan stanley calls delta a top

pick, and how about this space here >> i like it and you know i like it again, you can't own this sector if you believe you are going into a recession and i am not talking about the first half of this year, that was not a recession, but you get planes parked in the desert because nobody is flying, and then i think what is important, scott, we were talking about wynn resorts, and do you know convention attendance is up 20% over the 2020 levels there are surveys out there saying how dismal ceo sentiment is, and i get it and those are actual reports -- >> the round table today, though, about ten minutes -- >> they are saying one thing, scott. i am with you, that's what they said and they are doing another.

it's the story the whole year. >> are you not conflating what the outlook is right now -- i would never buy an airline stock because planes are filled today. why would you do that? >> you heard me say this clearly and i will say it again, do you buy airline stocks if you think you are go into a recession. i made the case again and again and again we are going to have a soft landing and i could be wrong, but at the level these shares are trading, these are great buys >> don't attack me i am just asking a question. are you comfortable with the balance sheets >> that's a great question >> thank you >> wouldn't own american airlines, sorry, you have a terrible airlines, and alaska airlines, which you know is my favorite, has a net cash position delta and united, they have debt but absent a recession, they are going to make it through >> aren't these trading range stocks, though >> usually they are, steph, but

the market is pricing them for a recession and if you don't get one -- >> got it. >> things just crossed, and overall the index down 11 points, and sales down 8 points, and if you start to get even a more slow economy, you don't have to go into a full-blown recession, but if people are tighter with their purse strings, you may not have the business travel to the degree of which you think you might even if you are not in a recession? >> it's a good point, and then you get into the discussion of what is the right price to stay for the stocks this is a good point the debt level for alaskan doesn't bother me. i will take the risks. i will take the risks, scott, of what you are saying is true. i will accept that risk for the reward and i could be wrong, but that's the nature of the risks >> all right wee ckig aerhi'rba rhtft ts.

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last wednesday being tassumption that day was the only day the s&p was up, and you are still above the level of prepowell pop, and you have a percent, percent and a half above that. makes sense we are chopping around and the dollar is up and really started to go up after the services number at 10:00 this morning that's the story line at the moment i think it's happening in the context of the market that saw the rally, and there are important differences in terms of seasonal factors and in terms of how the dollar behaved and how much closer we are to when the fed is going to be able to slow down. clearly, you know, no clinching arguments just yet on a hard or soft landing >> maybe we tread water until

cpi next week. mike, i will see you in a few hours at the stock exchange. financials among the worst performers today down 2%. what the investment committee thinks about the big banks go into next year we'll talk about that, next. ♪ at prudential we think you should say it when things go right too. .. like, when you score your dream job. sell your business. or discover she's smart... really smart. now what? here's what: you connect with prudential's rock-solid team serving over 50 million people. with investment, insurance and retirement know-how. who's your rock? visit prudential.com or speak to an advisor today.

♪ ♪ all right. not a great day spot financials, as you just saw there, but it is a big week you do have a number of conferences going on, including goldman's tomorrow bill, there is a good note from credit suisse, which says the highest conviction recommendation potential, club bank of america, jpmorgan, goldman sachs, and morgan stanley. you own morgan stan lip and wells fargo. they say this is on the confidence of the manageability of the macro slowing. >> i'm not that negative about quarter one. the headwind yield curve inversion hasn't been that much of a headwind as has been

historically the wealthier clients are helping with loan origination. you o, i want to stay overweight until there's something to be scared about here. >> you are, too? >> i am. we got some interest set data over the weekend loan growth showed up about 12% year over year, so it's staying very strong. credit remains stable. higher rates should help with operating leverage as well i do still own wells fargo as my largest position i think it's so cheap, and they're the most sensitive to higher rates, especially short end. bank of america is the secondmost, and they have a great cost-cutting program morgan stanley, i like what they're doing in terms of m&a and diversifying away. >> is this binary, soft landing versus soft landing. buy other sell these stocks? >> no, i think financials as a sector is in a much better place. let me go back and study prior

recessions, and how a sector responds to a recession. they about the recession, 2000, and 2002, which sector was indicative of the stress of that environment e. technology, right? next recession, in 2008, this sector actually had the most resiliency, technology, because they rebuilt their balance sheet. the same can be said for the great financial crisis it was financials that were the source of stress they have spent the last ten years rebuilding their balance sheets, scott. i think that means in this recession you're going to find a degree of resiliency that no one would expect famplgts sydney, those are users? >> i think what steph said and what bill said, the headwinds of inverted curve, but credit quality, everything we hear is good what we haven't mentioned is the fact that if the economy tends to not go into recession, you'll get capital markets business that ipo calendar has been

tread. that will come back to life. trading will come back i don't like the binary thing, but it is kind of binary you have to not go into recession. it's not i'm disagreeing with joe, i'm saying they're just not going to perform of course, nothing will perform if we go into a recession. quick break, and then we're back with the final tresad ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family business... ...or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? ♪♪ - [narrator] if your business just tell us - kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can qualify you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee,

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"overtime" 4:00 eastern

today, liz ann sonders joins us today, victoria greene, and mike mayo will be with us, too. we mentioned a big week for those sell-side conferences, including the goldman financial one. he's going to size up all of these companies. stephanie link, final trade is what >> dupont, stock's down 13% year to date. yield's 2%, they're simplifying business mix, paying down debt and buying back new $5 billion program. >> arch capital group. acgl a low beta of $21 billion is the market cap this is an insurance company. >> farmer jim? backing up the tractor on what >> yeah, with old green and yellow here, deere >> perfectly played. i didn't realize that. >> i thought that's what you were doing

>> these names are cyclical, almost all of them this is a cyclical list. deere is right on there. >> bill? >> rockwell automation, a stock expecting double-digit growth. as wages go the, more automation. >> i'm looking at the dow barely holding on to. "the exchange" is right now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. welcome to "the exchange." stocks are falling again today on fears that fed tightening will lead to a recession could they still engineer a soft landing? someone says yes, if they stott raising rates right now. europe's energy crisis, opec doesn't increase production while the price cap on oil is going into effect. will it make the u.s. an even bigger player. plus the perfect chart, our technician tells us th