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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  December 9, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EST

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we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today the dow futures indicated up over 90 points s&p futures up 15. this comes after the day of gains in yesterday's session yesterday, you saw the dow up 11 184 points the s&p was up .75% to break a five-day losing streak if you are looking at the week, you are looking down across the board. dow down 2% for the week s&p off 2.7% the nasdaq off 3.3%. treasury yields is what we are watching closely people are keeping a close eye 10-year treasury is back down to
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3.4% the 2-year treasury at 4.282 there is new data from china inflation slowing in november as covid outbreaks hit demanded consumer crisis up 1.6% versus the 2% increase in october as food prices ease sharply producer prices falling for a second straight month in november on the year over year basis. this latest data coming in the week when the chinese government eased restrictions and shift from zero covid policy andrew, we will get ppi here the expectation is year over year lower, but up month over month. let's talk twitter new set of controls to allow companies to prevent ads to appear above or below tweets with key words this in an attempt to woo advertisers back to the
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platform separately, barry weiz was being called the second installment of the twitter files last night with images of the internal twitter system that marked accounts as black listed one was a search black list. we will talk to congress member ro khanna later this morning and concerns as people were looking at the screen shots if employees and those folks looking at all of this have access to direct messages. >> that's interesting. >> you look at the screens they were screen shooting and a line for direct messages. did twitter at the time have access to that do the journalists, barry and mat matt and others, have access
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>> i assume somebody would see the direct messages. i figure somebody would have access to it >> how have you felt about your text messages? >> you know those will get picked up. i'm looser with that you know that gets picked up everything in writing. we used to call email, evidence mail. >> elon planning to encrypt direct messages in the future. >> it is smart >> separate debate about that. you know, bill gates and other people suggested if you encrypt all of the email and text messages, it makes it impossible for law enforcement to try to stop things from happening before they may happen >> and could they have a key just like apple? >> apple will tell you, i believe, they have no key to
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unu un-encrypt your text messages as well >> have there been lawsuits if you use whatyapapp, you are potentially saying things are against the law? >> i don't know the suit. >> i'll have to look. retail season in full swing. we have five stocks to watch first up is costco reported adjusted earnings of $3.10 a share. revenue fell short there same-store sales up 6.6% the company warned last week that sales growth slowed in november despite holiday shopping days like black friday which is what we heard from target that stock is off. we are watching shares of rh the company formerly known as restoration hardware $5.67 a share bet estimate of
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$4.70. the company announced acquisition of los angeles brand demitri and furniture maker jupe he hired the editor to launch a new magazine that stock up 1% >> i love reading an rh catalog. it comes in so thick and it must have cost so many to mail it. and shares of lulu are falling. earnings of $2 per share beating estimate store sales rose 14% for the quarter which is short of 17%. two concerns gross margins fell 1.3%. inventory levels jumped t85%.
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it is true those abc pants i have bought, i have not bought any further pants. >> one and done? >> i think everybody is back to peacocking all back to wearing fancy clothes. comfort. >> a lot of people back to the gyms >> if you have 85% of inventory sitting there, i'm not the only one. >> i wonder if they do sales this time around >> that would be interesting. online pet product retailer chewy swung to a profit in the third quarter on improved margins. the company raising sales forecast for the year. chewy says people are spending money on pets. that is one place where nobody is moving. demand is geared to food, str treats and health care
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transition from pet carriers and beds the cfo is also retiring are you an animal lover? you have a cat. >> we have a cat. >> with a bed? >> you end up getting so many things and toys. we have a chewy subscription a stake in bath & body works. the hedge fund criticizing for signing off on executive pay that is excessive and stock has tumbled more than 35% year to date. >> is it me or is it getting more active and more moves they have been making in. >> a couple of headlines >> disney. >> perked up. in other retail news, amazon is rolling out a tiktok feature
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in the app it will allow you to buy products from photos and videos. the portal is called inspire it was launched yesterday for some users amazon will make it available across the united states in the coming months. andrew is checking right now. >> i'm seeing if it is on mine. >> amazon has been recruiting influencers as it builds up the social shopping business this is interesting. everybody is trying to take on tiktok especially a nationwide ban on tiktok which is being discussed. >> i am not. >> you are not >> nope. i'm d-list maybe lower. we have breaking political news krysten sinema changing her affiliation from democrat to independent. making that move, sinema saying she never really fit in a box of any political party. that could call into the
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question the 51 seat majority for democrats next year. sinema does not plan to caucus with republicans >> i wonder if she plans to caucus with the democrats or hang out on her own. >> i don't know. >> bernie sanders, as an independent, was somebody who caucuses with the democrats. >> she is also saying -- if she is saying she is not caucusing with the republicans. >> they are not counting on her vote for a lot of things they thought with the 51, it would make krysten sinema and joe manchin hold less sway this puts everything in a different light. if you only have 50, you have to count on manchin voting on you. >> i will say given my views of carried interest which is at odds with krysten sinema and a lot of people who lived in that
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space were surprised at the division she took. >> i don't understand it either. she was not in favor of changing carried interest and that is part of the reason it did not get changed. she wouldn't vote for it >> independently minded. when we come back, the ftc filed anti-trust case against microsoft calling the deal to buy activision-blizzard. microsoft shares up 59 cents later this hour, we have the interview with the ceo of nikola you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,
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the federal trade commission suing to block the microsoft acquisition of activision-blizzard. we have aaron glick. aaron, they will not step away they are girding for a fight what happens >> a great question. the prevailing wisdom among investors is that microsoft has the upper hand with the legal battle against the ftc because of the ten-year licensing agreement they offered to
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nintendo and switch and playstation. what is important here and i read through the complaint this morning and what is important to note this is not just about the ftc. this is also about the uk, cma and european commission. those two jurisdictions, if they bring lawsuit to block this deal, it is much more difficult for microsoft to challenge them in those jurisdictions and overcome the lawsuit i like to highlight one thing in the complaint and this was in the complaint. it was the second paragraph of the ftc press release announcing the lawsuit. they highlighted when microsoft acquired bethesda games in 2021, they made representations to the european commission that they would have no incentive to foreclose those games from rival consoles
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economically it was in the best interest to continue to offer those games to people like playstation. that was early 2021. already they decided to make those games exclusive to microsoft x-box. i think that tarnishes the trust the ec has when the ec cleared microsoft's acquisition to bethesda, they highlighted that microsoft made representations that they would not have any incentive, economically, to withhold games. that was front and center in the ftc complaint. >> is that something the weighed in on? it is another thing for regulators to say you lied to us. >> that is what i'm getting at here the uk and ec reviews are pending. we expect to see a statement of objection from the uk some time
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in january we might see one from the european commission later. those reviews are set to expire at the end of the first quarter. the ftc and lena is signaling to the other regulators here is potential issues we don't know. we know that they all communicate with each other. we don't know if they are all on the same page. that is a risk factor that investors are talking about. >> your best guess as to the eu? i thought you were in the position where eu regulators were more likely to approve this >> i think the consensus view among investors is that the ten-yearly s licensing agreement will carry the day and set approval for the eu and ec we run a little bit of risk in what people call the echo
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chamber. we are all talking to the same consultants and looking at the same precedents. everybody has the same thesis. i think there could be more risk here than the market is crediting. with that said, let's remember we are only pricing a 30% to 35% probability of this deal closing. the push back of what i'm saying and i'll hear it from clients, the push back is we are co compensated for that risk. at least a 50/50 chance they prevail in the jurisdictions i think it is lower. i think investors say 30% odds and we're come penpensated for . >> aaron, how high stakes do you think for microsoft activision, but the ftc at large insofar as
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to the extent you are right and microsoft has the better hand. if the ftc were to lose, does that prevent the ability to make similar claims going forward do tech companies and others say oh, my goodness, the door just swung open we can do that now >> that is a great question. there is a difference in views for this administration and how they think about anti-trust and how precedent has developed in the last 50 years. if they do lose, the onus would be on the hill, on congress to amend merger laws and clarify them i think that could be part of the end game here for the administration >> that is something that takes time they have two years before the next election comes up aaron, let me ask you quickly.
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first of all, this ten-year concession package is going to make the deal less valuable to microsoft. they will not do what they liked to have done how much value does that take out of the deal? >> that's a good question. i think when you read the ftc complaint, what they are going to argue further is it is not just about offering call of duty on same day to consoles. it is about other things microsoft could do to degrade quality or improve the experience on the ecosystem. you talk about anti-competitive effects, it is increase in price and degradation of value those are equal. >> you are a deals guy i want to look at the bigger
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picture. bill gates said he messed up the opportunity with microsoft windows. because he was so distracted by the anti-trust case against microsoft and he had to focus so much time on that, he didn't focus on microsoft windows mobile package as a result, he thinks they would be what android is today if that happenedn't n n n't hat happened >> it's a great question that's out of my wheelhouse if i'm honest with you. i think when what regulators might say there are a lot of things microsoft could achieve in this deal through arms length agreements with activision that is what the administration anding r regulators like going
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forward. >> aaron, we appreciate your time >> thank you coming up, three hot takes on a hot topic we will talk about the odds of recession from three perspectives that's coming up next. in the next hour, dr. scott gottlieb will be here to talk about the appetite suppression drugs like ozempic which is in short supply we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.
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time for the executive edge. this morning, we have three
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takes on the u.s. economy. america's small business owners are less likely to say u.s. economy is in recession. that is according to the latest cnbc survey monkey survey. 49% think we're in recession already compared to 57% who said that last quarter. a quarter expect a recession early next year, 61% say the business is prepared to weather the storm. for more on the small business survey, go to a reuters poll out finding they are expecting the economy to head into a short and shallow recession over the coming year the federal reserve expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points next week with one more medium size hike next year we can hope. >> yeah. the third take on this is a positive one janet yellen believes the u.s. can avoid recession given there
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is no wage price spiral and supply chain bottleneck is easing rent prices have peaked and coming down. yellen was speaking in ft. worth, texas and the first treasury secretary to have her signature on the u.s. notes. coming up, the ceo praising elon musk's leadership style this morning in the op-ed, robert wiesenthal will join us next. as we head to break, look at the s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”.
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square.
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right now, the dow futures up 100. nasdaq futures up 60 s&p up 17. this is better news than the last week and a half yesterday, you did get positive gains from the market. aside from that, it is a lot of downward pressure. right now is time for the squawk planner. at 8:30, we get the latest read on inflation you have the november producer price index hitting. that's a big deal. it will tell us about whether there is more inflation coming down the pike. it could be market moving if it is hotter than anticipated at 10:00 a.m., consumer sentiment and wholesale industry figures. court hearing continues in the ftc attempt to block meta from the vr app developer and the re-ranking announcement today. and details from the breaking news. arizona senator krysten sinema is changing her party affiliation from democrat to
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independent. she revealed her decision in the interview with politico. sinema doesn't see a change in the way she voted in the past four years in the senate sinema informed senate majority leader chuck schumer of her decision yesterday and did not say whether she will run for re-election in 2024. apparently this doesn't change the way the majority breaks. it would still be 51-49. trying to get more details i guess king and sanders are independents they caucus with the democrats. a new op-ed praising elon musk's leadership style with the takeover the twitter rob weisenthal says mr. musk is trying to deter systemic disease. joining us is author rob
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weisenthal slashing bureaucracy giving tiger woo twitter a chance to soar you are staking out a position he is in the right >> correct look, elon has a difficult task ahead of him i think the core of what i saw was the at tremendous buts to be successful he is an operator. he is an engineer. he accepted for applied physics ph.d.. he is more a ceo he can code. he also is a sole owner, or sole investor he is doing this in a private context. he came to the determination it doesn't take 7,500 people to run twitter. he went in and he is a power
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user he knows the people using the product the best >> you think this is all by design >> i think -- how does it normally work? a new ceo comes in and does a town hall all over the country they try to get buy-in it is about collaboration. they bring in the 100-day plan product transformation >> this is different >> this is a little different. he went in and realized something had to change quickly. you know, what inn ovation happened at twitter? he looked in and tried to look at a few uturew feature you saw the quote. anybody who can code can come in and explain to me what is going on as much as we talked about mass firing, what he said is if you
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don't see the importance of this and you don't want to be part of the team, because this will take a lot of work, please leave. they did >> how do you feel about him coming in and the first two weeks saying we will launch uss description twitter blue all of the people inside twitter were like this is crazy. you can't do this overnight. it doesn't work. lo and behold, two weeks later, he said it doesn't work. we have to go back to the drawing board and bring this back in a different formation and figure it out. >> he said let's fix it. this is a guy who started spacex you can't -- there is no move fast and break things in space his track record has been good there. when you think about twitter blue, it blew up look at this disaster he got it out there. he will fix it they awill have bumps in the
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road he is willing to take the lumps on the head. he will fix things. >> do you think other ceos think why can't we do this >> i see the company with 163,000 employees. one-stop shopping. anybody can stop anything. you have the deep state bureaucracy there for a long time a lot of teams are saying you can't do would you tell us >> are there other ceos who take a page from his book some people are afraid to fire anybody. >> it is sole control. private context. do i think you can go to the big media company and doing this >> probably not. >> i don't think you can i don't think he came to the conclusion you don't need 7,500 people to run twitter. i imagine the former ceo doesn't
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spend as much time on the platform as elon musk. >> as former cfo of sony former banker. all of that. do you think he's going to cram down the debt holders at some point? this company was worth $44 billion at one point does he dilute or go back to the investing partners who have a fiduciary duty to their investors and say we will need another round or another capital infusion does he do it himself or dilute them how does that work out with that relationship how does this play out over the next year or two, there will be a tough period in terms of the economics of the business >> correct on the product cycle, you saw it everyone is worried about advertisers. that is a big issue. he came out with just a very small product where you don't have to advertise in front of
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certain key words in front or behind that doesn't seem that big on engineering, but it seems twitter could have done it with debt cram down and such there is no question he overpaid he admits he overpaid. can he have enough income to generate to service the debt clearly with reduction of overhead and maintain advertising and get something on the subscription side, he can supplementopportunistic. you saw with the deal. did he not want to do the deal or wanted a lower price? if he has the ability to frankly go in and buy debt at a low cost, that is incredibly important for the shareholders that is being opportunistic, but if you think about it, if there are people on the screen saying i'll sell twitter debt at 75
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cents on the dollar. he clearly has cash. >> the folks holding that debt is the banks he needs the banks not just in the context of twitter, but spacex and tesla when you think about it, you are in the relationship business as a former banker as well. how do you square all that up and decision making you may or may not have to make >> i think he will go to the banks and say i have a plan. i'll work at it. your debt will go up and down depending on performance if you want it off the balance sheet right now, this is what i'm willing to pay >> does that make him a friend or foe for the future in terms of future relationships and future debt offering >> if you think about it, at the time of the deal, we were in a different interest rate environment. completely different economic environment. obviously twitter debt would not be priced then p the way it is today. >> he would be taking the risk
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on >> the think the banks are taking ownership of that it will be up to the banks to decide if they want the risk on the balance sheet. if they say this is too volatile for me i don't want to share this it made sense. >> on the equity side, does he put up more money? that dilutes the others. can he pony up more money? >> he may not need to. he would probably want something for that right now, he has sole control i guess he wants to maintain control. if he wants to maintain control, he may have to service some debt he may have to restructure the debt with the banks. >> how does this impact tesla and shareholders >> in thathat is an excellent question it is not all about demand or recession. it is mind share how many hours a day can he
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spend on spacex and neurolink and that's s -- tesla once i fix it, he said he would bring in a ceo he is cleaning house >> what about the brand piece? you know, there is a political element to what is going with twitter right now. i think. it feels that way. maybe i'm being polite about it how does that impact sales of tesla? he has the larger than life image. you are a brand guy. you are a lot of things, rob you have done a remarkable career with so many pieces how do you think of his brand? he is the marketer he is the chief marketer for tesla. there is no advertising. >> not advertising budget. no advertising department. >> he is a beloved character and persona. how does that change that dynamic or does it
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>> if i were there giving advice and giving advice, he would not be elon musk he cannot appropriate the platform you can't feel if i'm going on twitter and i'm in elon's world. this is the town hall. he cannot be up on a giant stage with a huge mega phone and everyone feels he is part of elon's world opposed to the town square let's tweet about features and where the company is going and the successes are and challenges are and maybe not ideas that are polarizing to a lot of people. he's not going to do that. that could have a real impact as well you do hear anecdotally saying because people think of tesla in terms of innovation and cars and spacex and this. and there will be some people who will say i don't want to be
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involved in his ecosystem. that is more of the -- >> are there other people who say i love this guy so much now. i want to buy the car. >> i think they always loved him in terms of the innovator and space. think about marketing. it was the tesla that drove the astronauts on the way to the rocket it all kind of fits together. >> fossil fuels didn't want to buy teslas fossil fuels and free speech do they say i'm now a tesla man? >> it's very possible. i think at the end of the day, i think when you think about what is happening and the noise on twitter with a lot from the media and the fact that teslas are green and now $35,000 for a tesla. this is not a car for the rich anymore. i think people appreciate that. >> rob, it is called "elon musk"
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in the journal today >> thank you when wite come back, the hottest collectibles whiskey prices are soaring robert frank looks at that market next. and the interview with the ceo of nikola still ahead. "squawk box" will be right back.
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>> becky, over the past decade, the top performing collectible asset was whiskey. up 400% in the past decade that is four times better than the art market it is doing well up 12% this year another asset is strong in 2022 is wine up 17% what is driving the whiskey craze? the new generation of collectors and whiskey lovers driving demand asia is a big consumer and collector with hong kong hosting many of the top whiskey auctions there are more ways to invest in whiskey. you can buy bottles and collections or barrels where you hold it and bond as it ages and appreciates in value there are new specialized whiskey auction houses and whiskey funds have become popular. the fund returned 17% a year over seven years before winding down last year
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mcallen gets the top prices. the fine and rare 60-year-old sold for $1.9 million. for a single bottle. that became the most expensive bottle ever sold most bottles sell for $200 and $1,200 a cast or barrel can sell between $2,000 to $10,000. becky. >> how much is because of inflation and you can't make more and it takes ten years to age? will that continue if inflation does get under control >> those are all the main drivers of this. it is inflation and easy money and people who love the product and value over age over time many say we're in a whiskey bubble that will pop right now, we are not seeing signs of any decline in prices not yet. >> very quickly. we have to run
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is that a situation where there is a whiskey bubble because they are making so much more and anticipating demand at the high levels >> yes a huge supply in barrels right now anticipating the continued growth that's where the question is over the next ten years and this ages four years before you even drink it some even 10 or 20 years the huge supply sitting in a barrel hoping we get the continued demand >> waiting for the whiskey river. robert, thank you. >> thanks. okay companying up. a cnbc interview with the ceo of nikola that is coming up right after this
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welcome back to "squawk box. time for a cnbc exclusive interview. in the electric vehicle space, phil lebeau joins us he's got a very special guest. >> let's bring in the coo of nikola joining us this morning
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from germany michael, i know you've been over there, a number of truck show where is you've been able to show off the nikola tray as well as the future of nikola as you see it gives us some perspective in terms of what you think investors are looking at when they look at the electric semi market and whether or not we're going to see the level of demand that you and others believe is out there. >> yeah, good morning, phil. thanks for having me on your show first of all, lots of progress this year on the nikola side we started production of our trade in march of this year and now we're in the market. we delivered at the end of the third quarter 111 trucks and we see a lot of interest from the customers here in europe but also in north america. so i mean we own a very good part and obviously now it's all about execution, right and that's why we are very confident that we have the best truck in the market already this year and next year, we bring the
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hydrogen truck in the second half of 2023 that's an important addition to our portfolio. we feel good about the zero emission mobility and the interest of customers is increasing on a daily basis, but, of course, customers want to experience the truck. >> michael, you're talking about the interest that's out there and there's nobody who is debating that within the overall transportation ecosystem as far as electric and potentially hydrogen fuel cell semis since nikola's ipo -- we know about the issues with trevor milton -- but separate from that, this stock is down how do you convince investors this is going to pay off this is not a stock that is going to go down to zeero >> it's all about the execution. it's all about the execution in terms of making sure the trucks are coming to the customer and providing the infrastructure
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but bringing these things together, i think then we will convince investors, convince the market, but this year and in particular next year, it's all about the execution. and we make a lot of progress. we have now inventory. you can test drive the truck, you can experience it. so i think we make a lot of good progress in terms of production, deliveries and now it's important that obviously we deliver those trucks to the end customers. >> but you haven't given guidance for next year and a lot of people are wondering if you're going to need to raise capital. can you tell investors right now nikola will not need to raise capital? >> obviously liquidity is important and we've always said, we will make sure that we have between 700 and $800 billion worth of liquidity and that's what we will achieve at the end of this year and we always have enough cash for the next 12 months while we are making so much progress on the production side, on the delivery side, we are
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able to reduce costs, improve efficiency and have a lot going into next year but we will make sure we have enough liquidity and make sure that our margins are improving because obviously we're just a the beginning. we are scaling the business. the first trucks, obviously more expensive. this will dramatically improve going forward. >> i'm not sure i understand the answer, does that mean, yes, you will raise more funds if needed to get to that liquidity level that you think is so important >> yes, we will. for the next couple of quarters we will need liquidity and obviously make sure we achieve this level of funding i was talking about. but, of course, we are making a lot of improvements of the business, volume goes up, costs are coming down, and we're absolutely on the right path here >> michael, the chicken and egg question is one that i think a lot of people are wondering about. you may have shipping companies, you may have commercial
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companies that are interested in electric semis but it costs a lot to build out the infrastructure for charging, whether it's at a company's yard or whether it's out on the road. is enough being spent to develop that infrastructure? >> i think we all have to do more and have to do it faster. we see it on the battery side. as you say, it's expensive but also for the hydrogen side going into next year, where a hydrogen truck will come we do a lot and make sure that hydrogen is available and we also have to work with partners. i think it's important because only if these two things come together, our customers are happy. so we will make sure that we really offer integrated mobility solution so i think a lot more needs to ha happen, but, of course, we are learning every day only if these two things come together, truck and infrastructure, energy, then i think the customers are really happy. we at nikola focus a lot on the energy and infrastructure.
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we also offer mobile fuelers in order to address exactly that problem we just discussed. >> michael, thank you for joining us this morning live from germany becky and andrew, i'll send it back to you. there's some news in what michael was talking about there. he's optimistic, but he did say there's a good chance they may need to raise some capital at some point. >> thank you. when we come back, we're going to talk about the hottest weight loss drug around and it's causing shortages at the pharmacy ozempic. we're going to talk to a doctor. "squawk box" coming right back after this we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important?
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good morning wrapping up a rough week for markets as investors get ready for inflation data what you need to watch in the final trading day of the week. game over for microsoft and activision the federal trade commission suing to block their detail, but don't quit just yet. microsoft has some fight in it we have the details next. how drugs for those with diabetes and obesity have become popular for those who are just seeking to lose a little weight.
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it's causeding a shortage in th medications. dr. scott gottlieb is here to talk about this as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick joe is off today take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour 2 1/2 hours before the market is set to open. we have data coming up at 8:30 dow right now would open up 88 1/2 points higher. nasdaq up 55 points. s&p 500 up 15, 16 points here. the ten year and maybe the two year as well, ten yeear at 3.48 and on the energy complex when you think about oil, we're
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looking at wti crude sitting at $71.76 and finally, crypto, still in the aftermath of the ftx fiasco. bitcoin is at $17,246 and you're looking at eth at $1,289 kyrsten sinema is changing her party affiliation. he revealed her decision in an interview with "politico" but she doesn't see a change in the way she has voted. sinema informed chuck schumer of her decision yesterday and didn't say whether she will run for re-election in 2024, if you're wondering what this means for the party, she will probably still caucus with the democrats, just like king and sanders do who are both independents as well if you're wondering what this means for her election prospects, if you look at voter registration statistics for november of this year, when you're looking at the her state, something like 34.6% of voters
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in arizona are registered as republicans. 30.6% are registered as democrats, and other, i wants, look like 33.9%. that could be why she's doing that and that's the speculation that's taking place in washington right now i want to get over to frank holland with a look at the premarket movers. >> happy friday, becky we're looking at netflix, moving higher this morning after a big upgrade from wells fargo the bank is bullish on the ad-supported tier. price target raised from $300 to $400 a share a $25 upside netflix is having a big q-4. however, shares are down 45% year to date deutsche bank is getting bullish on betting, they're raising their price target they're expecting growth to accelerate gaming stocks in general moving
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higher this morning. wynn is up more than a percent and a half penn national up more than a percent and a half right now. docusign up almost 12% this morning after strong earnings yesterday. metric of demand up, beating estimates. they raised its full-year guidance shares up 12% this morning. lululemon shares falling this morning really on that soft forward guidance from their earnings, also rising inventory puts shares under pressure concerns about china demand. shares of lululemon down 7%. >> i saw the picture you posted on twitter it's amazing you with marc benioff. i guess are two giants who make each other look normal when you're standing next to each other. >> he's a little bit taller. we're looking right eye to eye i told him what joe said about
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him yesterday. i was hoping joe was going to be on today. >> go ahead, tell us, maybe he's watching. >> joe said he's afraid of him and he saw him in davos, and i'm paraphrasing, but marc benioff says if he sees him, he's going to give him something to be afraid of. >> wow. >> sam bankman-fried taking to twitter and saying he's prepared to testify on the 13th as part of maxine waters committee hearing. he had returned fire on twitter saying that he was not prepared to at that time. now it appears that he is saying he will. he says i still do not have access to much of my data, professional or personal so there's a limit to what i will be able to say and won't be as helpful as i would like as the commit -- as the committee still thinks it will be useful, i would be willing to
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testify next year. i will try to shed light on what i can. ftx's solvency could return value to users internationally what i think led to the crash, my own failings, i thought of myself as a model ceo who wouldn't become lazy or disconnected which made it that much more destructive when i did. he writes. i'm sorry. hopefully people can learn from the difference between who i was and who i could have been. some news this morning that i imagine is going to create some more news next week. if in fact, he testified, of course, now the question will be, where he will testify from will he do this remotely from the bahamas where he has been located thus far will he come to the united states lots of questions people have been wondering about extradition, if there was a criminal case against him and what that would all mean and we will, of course, watch all of this. >> is he choosing maxine waters
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instead of the senate where they will likely be tougher on him. he missed the deadline yesterday. and it sounds already in this response like he's setting it up for him to say i do not recall a lot of times or -- >> it's a good question. >> i'll have to take the fifth because i can't answer these things. >> it's a fair question. he is responding -- i mean, in the sort of twitter universe, i think we have a full screen up on the screen. he's -- he is retweeting and responding to a maxine waters tweet. i'm assuming when he says here, as the committee still thinks it will be useful -- he might have said but if the committee -- >> she responded and said it would be useful. >> but i'm saying, his language -- you don't know when you're typing these things on twitter, whether you're doing it on your telephone or something else with different fingers. i assume the way -- the way this
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is structured, it appears he would be testifying in her committee not in the senate committee. but perhaps, you know, the next step along the way would be a senate committee hearing. >> it's interesting that he ignored the senate there was a deadline as of yesterday to get back to them by 5:00 p.m a spokesperson said that -- >> it wouldn't be. >> he wouldn't be. is this a case of shopping around trying to find a friendlier panel or does he testify for both of them that will be interesting too and then this has become a fight because maxine waters asked first before the republican senators asked him to testify, is there going to be a subpoena that's issued if he doesn't do it maybe this is the situation where he says, i'll come before you try and subpoena me. >> i imagine that's exactly possibly what's happening here and the question is going to be the location i will -- i'll bet money if we're allowed to bet money, if this is happening, it's happening remotely. >> i would not take the other side of that bet. we're going to turn to our
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market guest right now, kari fire is at the table we could talk stocks or sam bankman-fried, what do you think? >> 100% remote. >> is there a betting market somewhere that you think you can place -- >> absolutely there will be. for sure why would he get on a plane and come to the united states? if they say it's okay for him to do it from the bahamas, there's a big risk he shows up here, he's not leaving. he's not going to leave one particular for many, many years. >> do you own any crypto, by the way. >> zero. >> always zero. >> well, you know, i've asked colleagues of mine, smart people, people i think are really smart who have been supporters of crypto and block chain to just really explain it to me in a way that i can fully understand i've read lots about it and i haven't been able to convince myself or my partners that it's something that we should own for our clients. it's not a -- it's not a value that warren buffett needs.
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it's not a hedge against inflation. didn't work. no one is using it transactionally and i get it that it's safe, but i believe there's safety in many currencies not yet. >> so what is working for you right now, what do you do about this crazy market? we'll get the ppi data at 8:30 and i think we're all still waiting to figure out what the fed is going to do next week of course, that probably impacts crypto in some other way. >> sure. well, this is a market that's just been a tug-of-war on days that the market is optimistic, it feels there can be a soft landing and we can control inflation and the fed is doing its job and we're seeing improvements where the fed wants them and then the market goes up on the day when the market is pessimistic, we're going to have a recession because there's no way to achieve it without crashing the economy we go back and forth it's a seesaw. therefore, i think you have to play it on both sides somewhat you have -- >> what does that mean >> you have to have some defensive things that have been working.
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so we have o'reilly auto and united health care, and then you have to have some names that are just so cheap they become undeniably attractive. >> what's on that list >> we bought more meta i think google that was ten times earnings we bought it. it's had a good month. it's got problems. but that's why the stock is ten times. google, alphabet, 16 times next year, yes, it's in a recession because of its own market the advertising business is cheap. but 120 billion of cash lying on that balance sheet lots of cash flow. stock is cheap you buy some of that you make some choices when stocks come way down, we bought a line, the invisalign dental product. you can't be in one side or the other because you're going -- the day that the market went up 5.5%, you would have had a
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terrible time getting close to that market gain if you only owned, you know, energy stocks, big health care names and consumer staples we think it's important to have sides in both the growth camp and, you know, value. >> two other companies we've been talking about all morning are microsoft and activision would you touch either >> well, it's interesting. we own microsoft if you think about what was going on there, microsoft wanted to become the netflix of gaming. they said, we'll provide a platform, we think it's important to build -- you add the call of duty and other games. we're going to offer them to everyone but the ftc is saying we're going to shut this down. it's a $70 billion acquisition i think that's a lot it's not as if you're paying nothing for it they already have a big platform and so investors might think
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that, you know, perhaps this is a better company without activision -- >> you don't want to see them fight the ftc and take them what this could be a year or two years -- >> they're going to fight it >> you think that's a disservice to the company. >> i think shareholders might find that the aggregation of activision is a lot of work and, you know, who knows whether the playoff is going to come before the next five-plus years >> you wouldn't sell it? >> no, no. i think the stock has come down from 30 multiple to low 20s. we think it's still attractive >> okay. it's great to see you. >> nice to see you too. >> good to be here when the news breaks always more. >> wow there will be more. >> the saga continues. >> that's for sure >> thank you when we come back, former ernst and young ceo will join us to talk about challenges facing
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the c-suite. we'll talk with mark weinberger about the possibility of any immigration law getting passed. it's been a tough week for tesla. the ev maker reducing hires shifting and pausing hiring at its shanghai factory should investors be hitting the brakes here or put the pedal to the metal. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: squawk picks is sponsored by wisdom tree the modern alpha pioneer lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you.
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♪ sam bankman-fried now saying he's willing to testify before lawmakers next week. he would have to do that under oath bankma bankman-fried making that statement minutes ago. he should he would try to be as helpful as possible but added he doesn't have access to much of his data and said can't be as helpful as he would like to be but the drama continues and a lot of folks will be watching that hearing on the 13th maxine waters had been seeking his testimony. the big question is where he would do this from the expectation is he'll do it remotely from the bahamas and we'll see, of course, whether he's able to answer the questions.
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he's, you know -- how -- he's clearly setting up a lot of what he's saying to suggest, look, i'm not going to be in a position to answer detailed questions in the same way that a lot of people who go in front of congress when they have access to all that stuff. >> you can think of past congressional hearings where almost hostile witnesses have used the i don't recall answer or i can't comment i don't have access to my files. i wouldn't anticipate you're going to hear a lot more from him than you and other people have already gotten out of him i don't have anything to say they said, no, you're talking. come and share with us maximum seen waters was much nicer about how she originally started asking this. i think it's become more clear that they would issue a subpoena and you have republicans on the senate side who asked for an answer from him yesterday at 5:00 maybe he's looking for a friendly audience. both places are going to issue
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subpoenas. >> coming up, we're going to talk about a new class of drugs a lot of people are talking about for treating diabetes and obesity. but it's exploded in popularity leading to a shortage of some of the medications. we're going to talk to dr. scott gottlieb about the surge of demand in ozempic. we'll get ppi data at 8:30 the dow looks like it would open up 82 points higher right now. we're back after this. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. according to the national christmas tree association, how many real christmas trees are sold each year the answer when cnbc "squawk box"onnu cties ga-a-a-ap! oh... hi. what's this, a hospital bill? mm-hmm. for 1,100 bucks? ga-a-a-ap! looks like your wallet may need a sling too.
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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. according to the national christmas tree association, how many reel christmas trees are sold each year the answer, 25 to 30 million ceos are bracing for a
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recession in 2023. that's what they've been telling us here's jamie dimon who talked to us in washington this week on tuesday. >> rates are now 4%, on their way to 5 inflation is eroding everything i just said. and that a trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime midyear next year. when you're looking forward, those things may derail the economy and cause this mild to hard recession that people are worried about. >> we want to bring in the former ceo and chairman of ey. during its tenure, ey had 150 employees. he sits on the board of johnson & johnson. i know you see things not only from the public boards that you sit on but also the private boards what do you think is happening in the economy right now >> first of all, good to see you. i wish i got to see you at the conference i saw andrew briefly
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what you're seeing is that business is taking their foot off the gas. i wouldn't say they're slamming on the brakes. they're preparing for the hurricane that jamie is describing we're not seeing massive firings outside of technology and some companies, but we're seeing a lot of hiring placed on hold and phrases and we're also seeing cutbacks in the investments in various items and the extension of payment terms so especially smaller businesses, becky, that don't have the brand and can't raise prices along with inflation are starting to really question some of the investments they've been making over the last couple of years. >> we've heard from some of the small business organizations that when it comes to small business, they're still having a tougher time finding employees and that's because of the competition they see from some of the big businesses that do have a little more leeway. jamie dime was making the point, this depends on where you have
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in the economy, what business you're in. if you talk to the airlines, they're selling tickets to problem, hotels are still booking places theme parks are seeing lots of activity it's more of the services sectors that are seeing a boom when it comes to maybe the goods and manufacturing that are having a little bit for trouble with it if you're selling consumer goods. >> that's right, becky and the other issue is not just even what part of the economy you're in, what are your finances if you're well-financed and you can dip into your cash and you've been keeping that on hand, then you're able to go to market with relatively low costs. if you're a company that has to raise money, especially private companies, remember, it's down to 3500 companies. more and more companies are private. they haven't gone back to the market yet when they l they're going to find their asset prices are less, the speed at which we're raising interest rates is
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unprecedented. those costs and new debt to do ahead and purchase items, to pay their employees is going to be much higher. that's not figured into all of their plans from a couple years ago. they're going to change their assumptions. and that's going to hurt businesses. >> we have a couple of things coming next week we're going to get producer prices today, we'll get another inflation read next week and you have the fed next week too that's what people are waiting to hear. do they need to raise rates again significantly? does 50 do it? what will that ultimately mean for the economy? >> good question and i can't time next quarter or next year, becky but if you look at the systemic changes, the wage in inflation we've seen is sticky that's going to be around. the supply chains, the cost of moving on shoring, near shoring, making supply chains for resilient and less efficient is up the energy prices, it's going to go up and down over the short term but we have that mismatch between supply and demand. as china reopens, energy prices are going to spike again
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so i think costs are going to stay high. the economy is definitely slowing. you heard from jamie and others last week on your show about the consumers whose accounts are starting to dwindle and by the middle of next year, will be back down to prepandemic amounts and they're going to have to start borrowing again. 70% of the growth in the economy is consumption what i see is slower growth. costs are going to remain high for business margins are going to shrink. and whether we have a deep or small recession, certainly i would think that betting would be on a slowdown and some sort of recession next year. >> janet yellen said yesterday that she thinks avoiding a recession is still a possibility because she thinks there's not a wage price inflation spiral yet and she thinks the supply chain issues are improving what do you think when you hear that >> well, the cost of our supply chains is not going down, it's
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going up with the geopolitical issues going on, the chips we talked about, with the new plants, where you get your energy from, it's where you get your component parts from. i think we're seeing higher costs for awhile i will also tell you that i don't think we're going to get inflation down near 2% in the near term. how long do they continue to raise rates is a relative question it's not that -- the overall amount that the inflation is going to be. how long is it going to stay above 2% i think it's going to be there for awhile based on the costs i'm talking about. so i'm guessing that we're going to see a tougher environment for investment and hiring over the next 6 to 12 months. i think it's going to be a lot tougher next year than this year. >> if you see a ecession, that doesn't mean you're looking at a 2008 style recession i think a lot of people aren't familiar with kind of garden variety recession because we haven't had one in awhile. >> it's a great point. and i do think -- you're right,
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it doesn't mean it's going to be a depression or a financial meltdown like we had we don't have those systemic problems in the system that we had back in 2008 and 2009. but what we may see is a difficult environment, becky, that we haven't seen in a long time which could be something like stack-flation remember, what's driving this slowdown and inflation, it's not just demand. it's the supply issue. even though the bottle necnecks becoming clear, the cost of the supply chains has gone up because they're building more processes and resiliency into them >> mark, it's good to see you. thank you for joining us today >> always a pleasure, becky, thank you. >> when we come back, a lot more to come. former fda commissioner dr. scott gottlieb is going to join us. he is in the house we're going to talk about drugs for diabetes and obesity that
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have become popular a little off label too for those looking to do more and some looking i should say to lose a lot of weight all of this causing shortages of some medications we'll talk about it after the break. it's called ozempic. the ftc suing microsoft to block its activision purchase. will the deal happen or is it over deilonhastig aadtas tt rahthe hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply.
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[clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth. [clap]
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it's amazing the doctor who prescribed it is amazing. the most innovative weight loss guy. it's been life-changing for me i'm not hungry anymore >> that was fanatics ceo michael rubin on wednesday talking about his weight loss success using the drug ozempic it's skyrocketed in popularity because of its aid in helping patients lose weight and it's causing a nationwide shortage. take a look at the stocks of companies who make a similar drug they've soared with both of them up more than 17% joining us right now is
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dr. scott gottlieb who serves on the boards of pfizer and illumina all of the guests have been talking about how they're using this and it might be off-label usage. these are not people who were heavy to begin with. what do you think? what's happening >> i think what you're seeing on instagram and twitter, a lot, that is off label use. it's indicated if you're obese, that would be about 200 pounds for someone who is 5'9" or you're oversight and you have one or more risk factors relate today the weight there's a significant unmet need here obesity rates have risen in the last five years. these drugs can be effective but you want to make sure they're used appropriately and there's evidence when you look at social media that people are using these inappropriately. there's people who could benefit from diet and exercise, probably can achieve their goal through those mechanisms who are reaching for the drugs as a quick way to lose weight
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that's concerning. i don't think it's what's driving the shortages right now. there was some manufacturing issues and i'm not sure this is pervasive enough there's a large indicated population but you certainly should be concerned about the trends. >> it sounds great and i think it's -- it's got to be really good as you mentioned. obesity rates have gone up especially after the pandemic and the lockdowns. but i always feel like if it's too good to be true. are there side effects from this >> when people come off the medications, a lot of them will regain the weight. there are side effects, short-term side effects, causes nausea, constipation, diarrhea it causes thyroid tumors in animal studies there's no free lunch. you want to make sure you're taking any pharmaceutical that you're properly indicated for it someone who has a bmi of 25 or less can benefit from diet and exercise shouldn't be on one of these drugs. i think above that, if you have risk factors, you can consider
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it that's where it's indicated. they can be effective. at the highest dose, people lost upwards of 20% of their body weight these were people who were obese who had bmis above 30. they can be effective for people who need it. one other statistic, when you look at obesity rates in this country, in 2015, 25% of americans were oversight obese. had a bmi above 30 in 2019, it rose to 35%. now it's at 42%. rates have really risen. so there's a big unmet need. these drugs could be effective if they become lifestyle medications on twitter and instagram -- >> the question is, all of these folks are taking it now, you think they're going to take it -- they're going to want it take it for the rest of their life, right? >> look, they're going to have to if they want to maintain the weight loss unless they can modify their behaviors while they're on the drug. what the drug does, it gives you a sense of fullness so you don't want to eat as much.
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it slows emptying from the symptom. people feel full. >> it slows motility that's not a good thing, necessarily. >> it mimics a hormone that is secreted in the intestines. >> also apparently impacts your ability to build muscle and exercise. >> well, it can cause fatigue. and some people complain of those symptoms a lot of the symptoms are early in the course of coming on the medication so doctors will move people onto these medications slowly and they build a tolerance for the drug itself. but there's no free lunch here so to speak. so you need to make sure that you're properly indicated if you're going to use this if it's going to be used in settings where people aren't as risk, it should be properly studied. >> i'm sure you have a whole bunch of friends in your world who are saying i'm going
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ozempic, what are you telling them >> i'm telling them not to do it if you're taking a pharmaceutical ingredient, you want to make sure you're properly indicated for it. as you use drugs in lower-risk settings, you tend to realize more of the side effects and fewer of the benefits. if you're not at risk, if you're not overweight you could realize more of the side effects also some people are taking these drugs and potentially using them as an excuse to eat more because they know the drug is going to help them reduce weight at the same time. >> what you said about thyroid cancer again. >> it was thyroid tumors >> how high of a -- how high of an additional risk >> i don't know offhand the percentage it was not pervasive in the animal studies we don't know if it translates into people. these drugs have been on the
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market for a long time the weekly formulation which is what people are using now are relatively new they're more convenient. that's why people are using them we have a long experience with this ingredient. but not long enough and wide enough that i would recommend this for people who aren't at risk for whom their excess weight isn't a health risk factor >> separately, two other questions, the supply chain issue, you think that gets resolved when? >> some of it is being driven by some manufacturing challenges. they have said publicly that they're resolving those. i think it will be resolved in the market pretty soon i don't think this is being driven by the off-label use that we're seeing my view, a lot of that is anecdotal in social media. i don't think it's as pervasive as we think. >> happily we don't see you as often as we used to see you. we used to see you so often talking about the covid. but it does seem like it's back. i got to tell you, last week in
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new york and l.a., a lot of people are talking about it. what are you seeing? >> rates are up. we're in the thick of the covid epidemic right now the winter surge when you look at hospitalizations, right now about 30,000 people are hospitalized with covid. at this point last year, there was that 55,000, at this point two years ago, it was 95,000 the impact has been -- >> i know you're a pfizer man. paxlovid or tough it out >> it can be very effective. people who are at high risk, there's no reason someone should be toughing it out and take the risk they could have longer term effects from covid it's. it's narrowly indicated for people who have other risk factors. >> i'm 45 years old -- >> you're not indicated for it >> by the way, there are people who will get it and say, i want paxlovid because i want to be better in two days, i don't want to wait five days or ten days. >> as a former commissioner and board member of pfizer i'm not going to advocate off-label use on tv.
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for people who are i think they should consider it. >> scott, thank you. appreciate it. coming up, when we come back, the ftc throwing a grenade into the $69 billion microsoft bid for call of duty maker activision we'll bring you the details next. tesla's bumpy week what the road ahead could look like for investors and we have another tweet from sam bankman-fried we'll tell you about after the break. follow sq"squawk pod" on yor favorite podcast app and listen any time
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the federal trade commission suing to block microsoft's acquisition of activision blizzard, but microsoft is not expected to go quietly i'm going to go over to technology reporter steve kovach he's got more on this. good morning. >> good morning. let's go over the reason the ftc says they're suing over this deal it lays out a history of microsoft's gaming acquisitions, alleging microsoft has a pattern of buying game publishers to make those games exclusive to microsoft platforms such as its acquisition of a game studio the fear from the ftc, the same will happen if microsoft is allowed to buy activision. the big one here is "call of duty". sony has complained that microsoft will take it away from other gaming platforms but microsoft has offered to put
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"call of duty" on rival platforms for ten years. nintendo agreed to microsoft's "call of duty" offer sony has not agreed. meanwhile, activision's ceo firing back at the ftc saying we believe these arguments will win despite a regulatory environment focused on ideology and misconceptions about the tech industry that comment on ideology is really notable the ftc chair lina khan has said labor issues should be taken into account in these antitrust cases and that's not how these deals are evaluated. meanwhile, microsoft president brad smith making it clear the company is going to fight this in court saying in a statement, microsoft tried to, quote, give peace a chance by offering concessions to the ftc the big question now, guys, what additional concessions did
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microsoft offer before the ftc filed this lawsuit it sounds like there's no more peace here microsoft is ready for war. >> we were talking about the this earlier just trying to get at the idea of what this is going to mean, a protracted battle for microsoft to do this bill gates has said pretty -- repeatedly he's talked about how when he had to go for the antitrust hearings in washington, it took his focus off the company, he wound up spending so much time on that that he thinks it cost him when it came to windows mobile, is this different because brad smith is going to be able to focus on the legal front and satya nadella can focus on the business >> becky, gaming is microsoft's focus. so, look, they don't just spend $69 billion in their biggest acquisition ever just on a women. they really thought -- they really believed there's a huge opportunity in gaming. but they look at this and they say, look, 3 billion plus people
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across the entire planet play video games every day. we need a bigger piece of that pie. activision has a huge mobile business, popular franchises, especially "call of duty" and it was looking like an attractive acquisition target because its valuation had dropped so far because of those cultural problems within the company. so satya nadella is all in on this he is all in on gaming and he's empowered the head of the xbox division to make deals like this they think they have this opportunity in cloud gaming to bring about a new way of streaming games. >> steve, how long do you think this takes >> well, microsoft would love for it to be done by june. but it looks like this is going to extend it a little bit. this remind me of the at&t and time warner deal ic i can see them fighting it for a long time. >> thank you.
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>> thank you. we're going to break down tesla's tough week on wall street the stock down 11% in five days. is this a buying opportunity or more pain to come. we're coming right back. for a long time. vo: palantir software. empowers scuderia ferrari to make critical decisions
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join for free on the xfinity app. xfinity rewards. our thanks. your rewards. welcome back the drama continues, ftx founder sam bankman-fried saying he is willing to testify before lawmakers next week. we brought you his tweet as it
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crossed the twittosphere said he doesn't have access as to much of the data and can't be as helpful as he'd like to be. an now replying to this tweet who said sam was so unhinged when we decided to pull out as an investor that he launched a series of offensive tirades at multiple binance team members including threatening to go to extraordinary lengths to make us pay. we still have those text messages here is how the drama then unfolded sbf says you won, no need to lie now about the buyout we initiated conversations about buying you out and we decided to do it because it was important for our business and while i was frustrated by your, quote, negotiating being tactics, i ch
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still do it. and he said he threatened to walk if we didn't kick in an extra $75 million and we did it anyway because it made us feel more confident, we didn't want binance on our cap table, that is the investing group, but again none of this is necessary. you won. why are you lying about this now? so as the whe world turns, thep opera continues. >> if they say they have the texts, that is all stuff that can now be brought before congress and these hearings. why you would want to extend the drama and bring it about -- >> well, this part is -- this component part seems like a whole side show just them going back and forth >> yeah, it does, but if you are going to call people looiers if they have the -- >> well, he is calling him a liar and the other guy saying he has texts. so we'll see i don't know if it would even come out in court, but it will come out -- >> a side show, but probably
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will come out on twitter in the next 20 minutes. let's talk tesla craig irwin is joining us now. good morning to you. we've been talking about elon musk, frankly twitter all week, but there is a view that his involvement with twitter may be having an impact on tesla and the share price there. what do you think? >> i think that you are dead on the money. i've seen tesla as egregiously overvalued for about the last year and a half. and, you know, it is not an issue that i believe is driven by hype. twitter is a hype machine and musk is very clearly stepping away from tesla to twitter he has a lot of things to face over at twitter. and that is pulling the hype off tesla. the idea that maybe he named the successor, i don't know when he will take the reins, is also a fairly big negative for tesla. so, you know, he is a very talented executive, tesla is a
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very important company, it transformed transportation for the world. but we think people should ask what do we want to pay for this >> what counseldo you think fai is >> shouldn't be more than toyota so something well below 100, my price target is 85 >> your price target is $85, and worry at $176 today. how much of that relates to his involvement in spacex and twitter and other things, how much of that is just what you think the business unto itself is worth if there was no twitter or spacex, would you say the same thing? >> i'd say the same thing. i've been saying it for a while. i'm pretty stubborn, i stick with my thesis for a long time unless i get pushed off it pretty hard. i don't believe tesla is worth more than a company like toyota sells an order of magnitude more vehicles than they did
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>> you don't buy the argument that tesla could turn out to be way more than as s classic auto company insofar as it could turn in into a robo taxi company, a solar company. the thesis around the stock price being as high as it is today, ron baron and others say that it really can't be considered an automobile company unto itself. >> i think those are false arts. so the self driving capability is something that consumes power. if you are going to have level four with technology on the drawing board today, you will consume just as much power for the actual system as you would for the drive train. cutting the miles that you can drive in half, that is actually also fairly expensive to operate and the technology is not there. it is not safe enough. they are having serious problems with optical issues.
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and i don't zero bsee robo taxis anytime soon >> we'll see craig, we're up against a hard break. want thoono thank you for joinis this morning i'm sure we'll talk a lot more to you about it soon when we come back, ro khanna will join us to talk about anything from the microsoft being aity vision deal to the twitter files. and plus we're expecting to find out more about the inflation picture. ahead of that, futures up by about 170 of the dow, s&p by 26, nasdaq up by 95.
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week we'll bring you the details. and does the government have a chance to stop microsoft's bid to execute the biggest video game deal ever we'll ask silicon valley congressman ro khanna about his take and his prominent place in the twitter files. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, everybody. welcome back we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is off today you will see things have picked up pretty substantially since we started. right now it look like the dow futures are up by about 178, s&p by 26, and nasdaq is up by about 92 things have been building as we
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await the ppi numbers. officially the consensus is expected to show a gain in the month over month, but maybe a drop in the year over year as some of the bigger numbers start rolling off of the year long averages for those hopefully that is a sign that inflation is coming down, but we'll see. that number coming in less than half an hour in the meantime treasury market yields have been under pressure. ten year yielding 4.67%. >> and we have breaking news, sam bankman-fried tweeting that he is willing to testify in front of the house financial services committee next tuesday. responding to a monday tweet, maxine waters, saying that he'd answer questions but there is a limit to what i'll be able t say and i won't be able to be as helpful as i'd like. but he will try to be helpful
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and shed light on the solvency and american consumers on, pathways that could return value to users. and he concluded the thread by saying that i had thought of myself as a model ceo who wouldn't become lazy or disconnected, which made it that much more destructive when i did. i'm sorry. hopefully people can learn from the difference between who i was and who i could have been. as we showed you, sbf also taking a shot at binance's ceo about the abandoned bailout bill as cz apparently took a shot at hip and sort of a side show drama about who is telling the truth and maybe texts that may emerge or not about how that deal that ultimately fell apart took place >> so this is going to be interesting. if we had to place bets, i would bet that he does testify next week i bet we see it.
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>> remotely probably from the bahamas we think >> i would also guess that we're not going to learn a lot from it i think we've already learned what we're going to learn at this moment from him >> i don't know what else he can or can't say or what he would say. whether he will invoke the fifth amendment. >> or whether he just says i can't and i don't have access to my files >> he's now done some other interviews and as the son of two lawyers, he understands you can tell in his language how he describes things he will say, you know, i don't know this completely, i remember this way >> eah, the i don't recall sor of answers which you can't get nailed on it later. >> so the question is whether his answers are in good faith or not. so we'll see >> and you understand the lingo as also the son of a lawyer. you can read through the context of what he is saying in these
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things >> 100%. so look, i think that -- look, the truth is he is going to be a congressional testimony where lying in any way is a crime unto itself so, you know -- and he will do it ostensibly voluntarily. of course we don't know whether he uwould have been subpoenaed o not. so i think it will be interesting what kind of language he uses whether he equivocates i imagine a lot. and in truth, i'm not here to defend him, but he doesn't have access to the data, so he can't -- and if you ask me a specific question about a specific number, it is hard, i get that >> what happened to $8 million, that is not a tough question >> the co-mingle >> and that seems pretty easy to be able to answer. but instead it seems like he's
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trying to throw everybody else under the bus. oh, i wasn't paying attention. okay who was and what happened? i don't want to say anything that will implicate me other than i was just kind of silly, wasn't paying enough attention that is where we'll probably see things head next week. and we want to move on to the broader markets ahead of the final trading day of the week. mike santoli is joining us with what he has been watching on this mike, this has been an interesting yesterday and interesting today to counteract what we've seen maybe a week and a half leading up to that. >> a bit of a firming in the market tone, although very much within the range where we've been for a while yesterday was entirely within this week's range in the s&p 500. and we go back hovering around the 4,000 level all the way back to around a month ago. so it is like november 10th, we got the softer cpi number, made a run above that, but it has hovered since. and by the way, this is a very familiar pattern if in fact we're talking about october
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being substantial low in the market you got this kind of run off the low. and then the fact that it would kind of stall out and hover and plateau into december is not unusual. just take that for what it is worth. obviously we don't know how it will play. but we are waiting for confirmation that we have down side momentum in inflation with the ppi number today and of course bold numbers coming in a lot has helped out, bond market volatility has been a huge pressure point energy is another big part of the story. energy stocks, right, this is the energy sector spdr in white right here, a lot has been made of how it has massively outperformed crude oil in this several month period and wondering, j ppmorgan saying tactically go short energy stocks because crude is telling you they have down side. but natural gas is more supportive of earnings for energy companies as you see in
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the orange line here yes, we were much higher and we're no longer in natural gas prices than we were let's say 14 months ago, but this is a pretty healthy level for energy profits and it is not offsetting entirely thedecline in crude perhaps for all companies. but it is a part of the explanation. and you and everybody is talking about tesla, what is going on there, the twitter effect, everything else. look at tesla relative to two other very big and once very popular stocks amazon and salesforce. this is a one year chart, very similar paths. same type of losses. the difference being over this span of time, tesla is still up 600% plus over three years so that is how much market cap was loaded on to tesla in an historic fashion and about half of it has come out of that so it still leaves a two sided debate about where it goes from here >> when you look at a chart like this, it makes it sound like tesla's issues are less of an issue about elon being involved with twitter and much more the effect of the fed.
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it is seeing the same declines that amazon and salesforce have seen >> i would say certainly the fed, certainly valuation nears highs of a lot of crowding of similar investors perhaps also exposed to crypto. but you can also tell an individual story about every one of these companies there is leadership transitions, even at amazon you have a lot of the fact that by the way, there are sales growth at amazon and salesforce is not that impressive relative to the average company right now because of inflation >> mike, thanks. coming up, does the government have a shot to block microsoft's mega deal for activision blizzard? after the break we'll talk to congressman ro khanna with his view of competition in the tech sector and his supporting role in the saga that has turned out to be called the twitter files yep, we'll get into it and we'll be counting down to the brand new inflationary data coming your way at the bottom of the hour ♪ ♪
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sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent >> that declaration coming from the arizona senator in the wake of a georgia runoff that would have given democrats a 52 seat majority sinema becomes one of three register independents in the senate joining bernie sanders of vermont and angus king of maine, both of whom most often caucus us a democrats and sinema tells cnn that her own voting behavior will not change. >> i intend to maintain my position on my committees and keep doing the work that i've been doing for arizona so i don't think that things will change in terms of how i operator the work that i do in the united states senate >> sinema says her views and her state's voters don't fit into a specific partisan box and her own centrist views, opposition to tax hikes, had already put her at odds with her colleagues
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and the biden administration and so while it may not which i think vote counts, it will challenge negotiations behind the scenes and meantime last night former "new york times" columnist releasing the twitter files, an internal system that marks certain accounts on the black list, for example one marked as a trends black list, another as a search black list want to bring in california congressman who found himself at the center of the twitter files saga just a week ago representative ro khanna is joining us this morning. congressman, nice to see you, sir. you did get a nice little cameo in this twitter files saga and raising the issue really i think the only person, at least that we saw in congress especially on the democratic side, suggesting that both hunter biden files or at least the article should not be blacklisted. what have you made of what you have now seen from inside this
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reporting? >> well, andrew, i believe that twitter is the modern public square and it is one thing to say they shouldn't have released sensational pictures about hunter biden, which i agree with, but to sensor the new york "post," to prevent sharing of articles, that is just wrong and i stand by what i wrote. and i hope that they will not do that in the future even though they are not obligated to live up to the first amendment, they shouldn't be censoring journalists or things that they disagree with >> do these new series of might be described as tweet reports, you know, lead you to have more questions, less questions. >> are you glad that they are going through all of this? there are some people who think this is great. others who think that this is political or something else. others who worry about the privacy by the way of twitter employees or former employees and the like and email
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addresses. by the way your email address i believe was exposed. what do you think? >> i think transparency is important and good look, i don't mind that it happened to me it wasn't ideal. i do think that they need to be sensitive to nonpublic figures, to lower level employees and making sure their personal information and emails aren't being linked but here is the bigger question. republicans are rightfully concerned about censorship democrats tend to be concerned about respect. you don't want people on these platforms who are spewing anti-semitism or racism. and this is a conversation we need to have as a country. what is that balance and so i think the more transparency, the files being released, as long as they are not gotcha politics, what did president biden do, what did trump do, but more about the broader questions of free speech
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and censorship >> and talking about hearings, sam bankman-fried tweeted that he was willing to testify at this hearing what do we expect that we could hear and do you expect him to testify in person? >> i did listen to your interview which i thought was very thoughtful. i think that there are two different questions. one is his garden variety wrongdoing many of us thought sam bankman-fried was innovative, no one would have expected or very few expected that what could have been going on, he was taking people's money and spending it without their consent. and that is just wrong no matter what the industry is the second issue that needs to
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be looked at is blockchain having greater regulation. i have a lot of confidence in the ftc. i think we don't need to blame them but figure out how they could have more authority to regulate and they have been soundings alarm of some of the excesses for a long time. >> and there has been speculation that given sam bankman-fried's donations, prolific donations are largely to the democrats that congress went easy on him in fact that maybe even you went easy on him. you will remember terry delfy from the cme expressed deep skepticism about his business and you went hard at him you've come back and said that he was right and you acknowledged that, and you said his insights were greater than i mean, but i think a lot of folks say was all of this a function
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of money had sam bankman-fried bought off the democrats? >> no, in my case he hadn't even given a single dollar at the time of the hearing. the argument i had was mr. duffy was the technical definition of capital requirements but he had broader insight over ftx being fraudulent and i called him afterwards and i said look, you had instincts that i didn't. and i acknowledged that. and i think though the broader issue was that many people didn't see it. but i don't think at least in the case of those hearings or in the case of most of congress that there was any sense of it was linked to money. i'm sure a lot of republicans got a lot of money from super pacs
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i got contribnectribution that returned that was very small and had no money from ftx anytime before or after the hearing that you are referring to >> you gave the money back some have not. others have given it to charity. it seems like the money should be given back to the bankruptcy court so they can try to make as many of the customers there, the creditors, get back as much as they possibly can. >> i think what happened in our case, a week before the election, we got a contribution from sam bankman-fried and we refunded it. so that was about ten days later. it was a small contribution. i do think giving it to the bankruptcy court at this point would be fine. but the real way ftx was getting money was not individual contributions of $2900 or $5800. $2900 is what he did a week before the election to me. the real ways they were putting millions into the super pacs i do think the question is where
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were they putting in that money. a lot of the elections i guess were progressive i was often endorsing the the on the other side and many of those candidates didn't win who sam bankman-fried's pac supported. but that ought to be looked at just as an issue of big money. and there were a lot of republicans who benefitted from that big money as well >> but in terms of the money piece, it all smells i think that we all agree that it smells. why is there not a greater emphasis on trying to get rid of the money broadly? so questions about your credibility and others' credibility don't exist. >> i don't think there is any question about my credibility. i don't take pac money, lobbyist money. and like i said the record is pretty clear, i haven't taken a dime of ftx money other than a company nation at the very end which we returned. but i do think there is a broader issue which is these millions of dollars of super pac
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money going into elections that is why i said don't take a dollar of pac money. i introduced the no pac med. there are acceare seven members who don't take pac money and we need legislation to effectively regulate big money that is influencing our politics >> finally want to get to another big headline today microsoft and that activision deal, the ftc suing to block the transaction. which side are you on? >> i'm willing to see what happens here look, i understand the ftc's concerns certainly i won't pronounce what an agency will do. i've never done that in my career and i understand there are concerns on the video game industry but at the same time, we do need to look at the jobs and labor issue. microsoft came to a neutrality agreement with the cwa workers
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and cwa is very happy with some of the jobs and neutrality agreements so i think there are considerations on both sides and i just hope the agency will weigh all those considerations >> how risky is this for the ftc? and the reason i ask, if the ftc were to lose this case, you know, does that open the door for all sorts of -- there is a lot of people who are not pursuing mergers right now because they are anxious about the ftc even bringing a case like this. but if they were to lose a case like this, the dynamic would change completely. >> i think that is a good point and i think that is one thing that the ftc needs to weigh, is this the most egregious point. but the broader point is that we need to make sure that congress passes something you can have the most aggressive ftc, and right now the judicial law is pretty deferential to businesses and mergers without congress changing things, i think that the ftc is
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always going uphill and i have been for some of the stronger antitrust enforcement. >> congressman, it is always good to see you. appreciate you weighing in on all these topics have a great weekend >> thanks for having me. when we come back, november's read on the producer price index is coming. fl- eanglation -brki ination data is on the way in six minutes time technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.
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welcome back we are just a few seconds away from the november producer inflation data
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the number anticipated is up by 0.2% again, this is inflation measured in producer prices, so that means it is a little further up the pipeline. you can hoping to see a smaller number to indicate that inflation is starting to come down and that seems to be what the market is expecting too. dow futures up by 150, nasdaq by 80, s&p 22 ten year note yielding about 3.476. rick santelli is standingby at the cme. >> for november on headline, producer price index, what we have is up 0.3 of 1% strip out food and energy, it is up $0.4, a bit hotter than expected and it was 0 last month. so we have moved higher there. that is significant. and if you strip out food, energy and trade on a month over
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month basis, it is up 0.3. and in the rearview mirror, three out of the last four months outside of november were only up 0.2. so heating up there as we. my favorite, the year over year numbers, year over year headliner final demand, 7.2 expected 7.4 is what arrived. and rear view is 8%. and high water mark is 11.7. actually across the board was march of this year that one was 11.7. so you can see that we've come down and 7.4 is the lowest level since that number. and if we go to 6.2 for core year over year, that was expected to be 5.9 so also hotter than expected but is expectations really in the market in the rearview mirror, 6.7. so 6.2 and 9.7 in march, you can
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see we've made progress but still historically high. and last year over year number x food respect x energy, x trade expected to be 4.7, up 4.9 so the expectations on all numbers monthly and year over year were all higher than expected but they were all tame on year over year. so 4.9, how does that stack up well, 4.9 high water mark in march was 7.1. and rearview mirror is 5.4 so we have to watch the market and we've seen yields move up. two year note yield is right around 4.25. it has moved tighter ten year note yield was around 3.46 it has moved higher. but consider the weekly basis. 30 year baonds closed high tnd two year notes last week closed
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at 4.27, they are at 4.29. nice glimpse of a week where the fed speak continued to try previous week push rates hire a higher and equities lower. only half successful and of course cpi next week, these will be the cap stones before the fed decides whether they will move a half a percent 50 basis points which is what the market seems to expect dow futures have moved lower we'll see if the knee jerk reactions prove to be staying power here i personally think that if you look at the trends and they don't necessarily need to be linear when you look at inflation, that the trends are still in favor of the way the market and yield curves have moved of late. becky, back to you >> rick, thanks. as rick mentioned, we're looking at the dow futures down by about 140 points this comes after they were up by about 150. so about a 300 point swing
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we'll continue to watch it on a tick by tick but for more, we want to bring in steve liesman along with megan green who is at coral global and chris bitterly head of north america investments at citi global wealth. steve, what does the fed take out of this? i have to guess up 0.4% is going to be snag causes a bit of concern. >> yeah, but you know what, i think that this may be a better number than it looks like on first glance i'll tell you why. a couple reasons first of all, i don't know and i can't really explain, we have a surge in food prices i'm not sure where that is from, but it was unexpected. the big swing factor in all this is the trade services number it is kind of a fudged number, kind of a real number. it is essentially -- it is a profits number or a margin number for wholesalers and retailers. it is up 0.7%. it has come down year over year but remains relatively high.
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and i think the expectation is that these numbers will come down as prices come down also you had a 3.3% decline in energy i think that there was an expectation for it was going to be more of that. you look at what happened to gasoline prices in november, they came down pretty sharply. they are still coming down and one other thing when i look up the food chain, i look up to processed goods, i see negative numbers coming down the pike so the headline did not do what was expected i think you look a little bit in to the numbers i think rick kind of said it, this is in the direction of where bonds think inflation is going. not precisely what was expected, but i still think it is a decent number of the direction inflation needs to go. >> megan, does it have any impact on the fed next week? are we baked into the 50 basis points >> yeah, i don't think it has any bearing on what the fed is going to do next wednesday it was a slightly stronger
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report than what we were hoping for, that is for sure, but it won't shift the fed off of the 50 basis point hike next week. i think steve is right to point out that the trade services piece is the most interesting piece in the ppi report because margins. so it says something about company margins that are still pretty strong. but ppi used to be considered to be something that leads cpi. that hasn't really been the case it sort of moves along the cpi so i don't think that it means that cpi will be that much stronger i think peak inflation is probably behind us also the ppi report was driven mostly by services inflation, something that the fed will pay attention to they are really worried about services inflation because there is a huge wage component in that and so insofar as it is really strong, the fed will worry that wages will be strong and you could end up in a wage price
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spiral looking at the jobs numbers, the jobs report suggests that wage growth has reaccelerated. that is bad news for the fed but i don't think that we're really in a wage price spiral, just something to watch out for. >> chris, as an investor, what do we do ahead 6 this. we've seen some pretty decent move in the yield of the treasuries complex >> and this has been a big question and super interesting just looking into the end of the year which we only have a couple weeks and some big catalyst events implied volatility is significantly higher than what we're seeing today so i think that we need to get through those announcements, through the fmoc meeting but ultimately you have this tug of war between bearish positioning when you look at things like the put call ratio, at levels we haven't seen since 1997 so investors are coming into this kind of prepared for
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bearish markets. so that could create some counter trend. but ultimately our position, we just released our outlook 2023 yesterday. our positioning is quite defensive, we still remain overweight fixed income here, quality fixed income, and the same is true in equities where you want to be in the sectors that have been able to consistently grow their earnings without recession because if the fed continues on this hawkish trajectory, that is what we're calling for next year. >> so you like things like utilities and staples? >> we like health care, consumer staples. health care has been able to grow earnings the past four recessions around 8% consumer staples have been able to grow earnings around 4.5% and so we're remaining defensively positioned until we either see a break in the inflation data or a break in employment, and i think given the print today, given our expectations for krchcpi next w, we may get the break in employment before we see inflation come down in a material way
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>> earlier this morning, steve, we were talking about all the different points of view about whether there will be a recession next year, whether it will be steep. and it runs the gamut from treasury secretary yellen sayin there is still a chance we don't have a recession to some of the ceos say we're anticipating a recession and we're cutting back pretty significantly it seems like the battle is nowhere near being resolved. >> reminds me of a quote from a song, everybody is either making love or expecting rain that is kind of where we're at and i think -- look, i gave the minority report on monday which is the correction of ab-- colle of about 25% of economists can which includes goldman sachs and so worth noting that there are a bunch of good economists who think that we skirt recession. the outlook here is if you can bring down inflation and you don't have a huge surge in
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joblessness, which you can'can't-i don't think the nbr can go back in data recession if you don't have a substantial increase in unemployment it would be a very unusual recession that we had. and i think this issue of labor tightness will remain. and i had the same kind of what's the right word just couldn't -- indecisiveness when i did the all-america survey yeah, people have really lousy attitudes about the economy. but there is 4.3 million more employ ed americans this christmas than last christmas. we had a great black friday. so i'm not ready to give up on the economy yet. >> megan, let's get to the idea of does it get to the wage price spiral that is the question if you have a really tight labor market and if inflation continues and if those people can say i need more money in order to keep up with the costs that i'm facing, maybe this is a protracted type of inflation, it takes a lot longer and it
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requires more work from the fed and that eventually leads to some sort of a recession >> yeah, look, i think that's right, there is a better argument for there being a wage price spiral in the u.s. than there is anywhere else in the developed world because our wage growth has been much stronger. and to your point as people have said look, prices are going up, you need to pay me more so i can afford it. that said, wage growth has been fairly muted stronger than it has been historically, but there is no real indication that actually wages are spiraling out of control. they have been coming down for months actually up until the latest jobs report and so i wouldn't make too much out of one jobs report i think that the u.s. will go into recession for what it is worth. it is just taking a while because we had such a big cash cushion among households thanks to all the pandemic stimulus measures so a much bigger stimulus relative to output than any other country. and so we're just burning through it that cash cushion and there are signs that we're
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burning through it though. de delins delinquencies have risen and bankruptcies have risen. and so it shows that house holds are taking out credit card debt. and there are indications that the down turn is coming. probably won't come before the labor market really deteriorates though and the labor market remains really strong. the fed is going to have to hike even more before a deterioration in the labor market comes. they are homing that we can whittle down all the job openings that we have and not see an uptick in employment. but if you look at the data, it has never happened before. so a nice theory that doesn't seem to work in real life. >> rick, were you trying to make a point before >> he's always trying to make a point. >> i find it fascinating, i agree with the notion that we are 4.3 million jobs more than last christmas that steve made but we're probably about 4.3
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million, 4.7 million less than pre-covid. and as far as the wage spiral, all the metrics today, their highest level whether month over month or year over year was in march. guess what year over year wages were in march? hourly earnings were up 5.6% in march. that was their high water mark so across the board. yes, they went under 5% for october and came back in the november jobs report to slightly over 5 but i don't see a spiral there i see stubbornness but i don't see guns hot and i think that is significant. >> megan or steve, let me ask each of you, we've heard about a lot of layoffs that probably haven't hit the rolls yet because people were working on severance. we may likely see more layoffs that come after the holiday season, people don't really like to do it between thanksgiving and christmas.
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could that have a quick change on this picture, could it tighten the market or will that still take some time steve, i'll ask you first. >> i think so. i think that you are right about that you and i have over the years watched especially retailers, they have had to stay open during the christmas season and afterwards they will close down. there is a story out there that i'm researching now. i'll throw it out there. the idea that some of the surge in wages was from severance pay. there was this increase in interest sectors that had declines in joblessness -- sorry, declines in jobs. you saw a pop in wages in some of those sectors worth noting as to whether or not that is the case look, becky, everything is in the same sort of range here, which is it is going up, but it is not yet at a critical place same thing i think megan wanted to talk about the debt issue, credit card use is up, but it is
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not over the top as to where it was. defaults are up, but still i think below normal same thing with jobs you can get softness and increase in joblessness, but you'd still be below normal or pretty strong job market >> all right, i'm sorry, we have to leave it here but want to thank our panel, megan, chris, rick, steve. after the break we'll talk to jim cramer, get his first take on the final trading day ahead of the weekend taking on some of this data. and don't miss a big interview onclosing bell, brian moynihan ng trehehanging out with t gahe
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boy, has the ftc been busy targeting not just microsoft's purchase of activision, but also m meta >> and ftc is accusing meta of trying to assert undue dominance in the meta verse. and they kicked off hearings on the injunction and they will be back in court today and again next week. back in july, the ftc sued to block meta's acquisition of within which operates the popular fitness app called supernatural arguing that it would illegally boost meta's market power in the future business and ftc claiming they are trying to create a monopoly in vr fitness apps and that they should be developing their own products but meta saying that they don't have the capabilities
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on their own mark zuckerberg and also andrew bosworth are expected to take the stand sometime next week the outcome could say a lot about the biden administration and ftc chief's ability to rein in big tech. if the ftc succeeds, it could have a real chilling effect not just on meta's interests but also on m&a at companies in many other industries >> so we've been debating this all morning the inchlily indications of the suit and inch emp implications of what the suit does in the short term to maybe prevent others in the space from trying to pursue other mergers, but also the risks in the long term on the ftc side that if they were to lose, what kind of floodgates that would open what do you think? >> i think that there is no doubt that this administration
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is taking a much more critical eye towards acquisitions the question is just how successful they will be and how big or sort of specifically antitrust violating those actity sixes are in order to be blocked. so i think this particular meta case is interesting because it is not arguing about current art competitive landscape. it's arguing about the future competitive landscape because the metaverse is not an incredibly big business right now. so, i think each of these arguments is slightly different, more nuanced, and this particular one is fascinating when it comes to these cutting-edge technologies as opposed to areas such as gaming if you're talking about a activision microsoft i think there are certain sectors where there's this sense that more cop nsolidation is inevitable, but it's not going to happen, andrew, if the deal is blocked >> julia, thank you. i was going to say, even just the specter of litigation has
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its own form -- it is its own form of regulation but now that you have actually brought it, and -- you got to deliver or not, and then it changes the whole dynamic. >> otherwise, it's game on let's get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us, and jim, you've been saying for a long time that lena khan means business, none of these deals are going to fly we've got microsoft and activision and microsoft saying it's going to fight this one now what >> well, i got to tell you, she dusted off an old play boogey-lbook tha we had in 1934 where if you owned a liquor company, you could not own a bar because you would favor your own bar against other bars and that is something that passed in congress. she could easily use it against this deal. and i think she wins the -- that actual ordinance, called the todd house rules, was never applied to other companies, but it can easily be
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used as precedent because it's the case in this country today so, she's got law on her side. that's what she can do in country, you're not supposed to own both a producer and a seller of the same thing if you can hurt another company that is a seller >> okay. if this is actually applied successfully, outside of another industry, let's say the technology industry -- >> they did it it's incredible. >> hugely widespread, i think, of all the different places that could be spread out. >> oh, sure. i mean, it's a doctrine that the federal government supports, which is that if you own seagram, you can't own a restaurant, because you'll be able to charge much less for seagram, so your restaurant gets more customers it's the 1934 act. >> i'm just trying to thinking through all the things >> it came right out of
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prohibition. it's the law of the land still >> i never realized that could be applied to other places i knew it existed, but i didn't know it could be applied to other things, and if that's the case, look out >> yeah, she wins. she's clever she'll know about the tide house rules. she'll use them. >> all right, jim. i get the feeling we're going to hear a lot more about this in just a couple minutes. >> it's fun. >> i'm eager to hear the rest of the playbook you've been saying this for a long time and now we're seeing it play out. jim, we'll see you in a few minutes. "squawk box" will be right back.
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the inflation data, november ppi coming in hotter than expected on the headline and the core numbers for more on the markets and the market reaction, i want to bring in chief investment officer at sand hill global advisors, also cnbc contributor you're watching the markets moving lower already as expectations and maybe jay powell is going to say inflation's still here what do you think? >> i think we need to wait to get the cpi number next week, but i will say that this figure, the ppi this morning, is certainly a disappointment, showing that it appreciated more than twice -- around twice what was expected month over month, and that core number is where that came from so, that is certainly a disappointment here.
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so, i think this whole week, we've just seen signs of the strength of the services sector and then last week, of course, the strong job number, so it seems like things are stacking up in favor of the fed continuing on its rate-hiking path, but certainly, we need to see that cpi number next week. >> okay, so what's your fed rate hike number for next week but maybe more importantly, how are you seeing things play out now in '23 >> so, i think we're going to see the 50 basis points. i think if we see anything other than that, it's going to be a surprise to the market for 2023, i think, you know, we could see, let's say that next week turns out to be better than expected we get a better cpi number that could support ongoing appreciation but i think as we look to next year, we're talking about kind of bumping up against the high end of the valuation range that we think is appropriate for the s&p 500, so i think in a world where there is an opportunity to earn a
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risk-free rate of return of around 4% and possibly a little bit higher, then that, you know, just begs the question of, where does the best grist reward lie and we think that all signs are pointing to the bond market being more attractive in that scenario if we were to get further -- >> so you're feeling like 4% is better than whatever you're going get in the equity market >> i think if we start to bump up against an 18 forward multiple, you have to beg the question of, you know, how much further can we go in this environment where there's an overhang of just not knowing exactly what the impact of the rate hikes that the fed has done so far is truly going to be on the broader economy. so, i think that's an overhang, especially in areas of the market like large cap equity, rare valuation is okay, but it's not a screaming buy currently. other parts of the equity market are looking a little more interesting from a valuation standpoint, but obviously, we have to all consider fundamentals too and what those
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look like if we truly do get an economic slowdown next year. >> are you already buying bonds? is that the move for you >> we have been. so, you know, starting mid-year this year, we started adding to bonds to our portfolios for the first time in many years, and that's a significant change. but i think when we look at the role of bonds, especially if we do go into recession, we think they will resume their typical role of being more of a protector and that's important, i think, in the context of having a diversified allocation for many people. >> okay. brenda, nice to see you. bonds are the message. >> thank you >> big debate about equities and bonds. we've been having that debate around here for a very long time, and equities were winning for a very long time >> yeah, we'll take a look at it today. you'll see the futures under some pressure once again this morning. just -- this was a huge reversal we've been looking at the futures up 150 until half an hour ago it slid all the way down 150 now it's back to just down 33,
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but if you're looking at the ten-year note, we did see quick moves in the yields. right now, 3.5%. we'd been below that of course, big issue is going to be what happens next week. that's when we will get the super bowl price inflation and then we've got that fed meeting and that's what everybody's been waitin waiting. we made it to friday >> have a great weekend. >> see you on monday right now it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange futures did lose their gains after that ppi data didn't quite give us the five handle we were looking for. question now is whether bulls worry about cpi next week. ten-year, as buckyecky said, 3.5 our road map begins with the latest read on inflation, likely complicating the fed's rate hike policy


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