of fed speak bank stress tests, some treasury auctions and deregulation of the banks is in focus too with the fed meeting. so we've seen those names pop ahead of that. >> middle east conflict was a big question mark heading into this week. the dow and s&p i think both ended up down just about a third of a percent for week overall. so that is cooling off. but of course there's always something else to watch. >> yeah. and i'd put the crude move into context because we're higher than may but we're actually lower than a year ago. speaking of geopolitical risk, that does it for us here at overtime. >> fast money starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site, right here in the heart of new york city's times square. this is fast money. here's what's on tap tonight a surging semi shares of amd vastly outperforming the rest of the semiconductor stocks this week. what is behind the move and what does it mean for the current leader nvidia plus. oil's next

move. we're going to break down what is next for the commodity as the world watches developments in iran. all sanctions will join us coming up. plus a bidding war in the diy world circle keeps soaring to new highs. we are counting down nike earnings next week. the options action on nike straight ahead. i am brian sullivan in for melissa lee. happy friday. we are live in studio b at the nasdaq. and on your desk tonight karen finerma, steve grasso, tim seymour and carter worth. welcome everybody. good to see you. happy friday. >> thanks for being here. >> oh was it my choice. all right. stocks closing out the holiday shortened week of the flat line. with the dow managing to eke out a gain of about, what, 3/10 of 1%. s&p and nasdaq down. nobody cares. the s&p though down a little bit today. but we're going to focus on the future because what's happening today. we're coming off a holiday yesterday. we're going into a summer weekend. you got a

lot of iran stuff hanging over there. nobody thought anybody was going to take big positions today. and they did. there were some movers, the biggest laggards communication services, materials and health care down. communication down about 1.8%. get more on that energy up 1%. get more on that in a few minutes with paul sankey. consumer staples and financials also rising. now the action or whatever you want to call it came after fed governor christopher waller told steve liesman that the central bank could cut rates at its next meeting in july. steve also sat down with san francisco fed head mary daly. that was in the last hour. two big interviews today, steve. joining us now with all the headlines from my guest, steve. really, the daily stuff is fresh. great job today. working all day by the week. what do you think was sort of the main takeaway for you? >> you know, i think we might have started the day with a big food fight at the fed and ended

up with something of a debate around the dinner table. and let me see if i can explain all this. you know, the idea that waller comes out and off the bat says, hey, we're going to we i think we should be cutting in july. it sounds like it's dramatically at odds with where powell is, but then along comes daly and she says, you know what? i think the fall is a better idea, but she's sort of in the same places where waller is for those reasons. let's listen to what she said. >> we cannot wait so long that we forget that the fundamentals of the economy are moving in a direction where an interest rate adjustment might be necessary. >> so she says the fall is more reasonable. waller thinks they ought to maybe think about cutting in july. how big a deal is that? well, brian, one way to solve that problem is you come out in july with a statement that strongly hints at the idea of a fall rate cut, which is pretty much all the same for the market, because what is the fed

going to do? it's going to guide the two year lower through that process. with a question as to whether or not the ten year and the longer end comes along with it, which is a question that i have. but the idea that the fed is a little less on the edge of its seat about tariff inflation is something that daly seemed to express in my mind. and waller certainly says, you know what? it's going to be higher, but we're going to look through it. so we'll see. and in a sense, brian, we don't have to make up our minds. the data will decide for the fed, will decide for investors if the employment numbers come out substantially weaker. the fed knows what to do. if the inflation numbers are pretty high. well, then it's a bit of a bigger question and you can kind of roll the dice and i'll just tell you where the dice are at this moment. i don't know if we have a full screen on this, but july 16.5% is the probability for a rate cut. so the market buying a little bit of it. i guess that's a little bit higher odds than your odds of rolling, say a hard ten before you roll a seven at the craps table. so i don't know how

much you might take that bet, brian, but then we get to 70% for september and 72% for december. so that's where the market still is. despite all of the talk today. >> i love it throwing out maybe the boxcars double six reference here steve. you know we all we often talk about inflation. the last few years the fed focus has really been about inflation and rightfully so. but to your point we kind of forget the fed has two mandates, right. price stabilization and maximizing employment. so just editorialize why not. it's friday. what do you think is going to be the fed's calculus between controlling inflation and protecting jobs. if we start to see some kind of slowdown or job loss in the economy. >> well, i think the obvious and uncontroverted incontrovertible job loss is kind of like force majeure for the fed. it has to move. it will move in that context. and then it has to kind of hope that the tariff impact

is one off, and then it's going to look at not just the tariff stuff. that's kind of the key here is look at the non-tariff stuff. how is that doing? the fed and the economy has gotten a gift serve housing. housing inflation is down. you've heard about the softness in the housing market. you had non core sorry core non housing services also easing up a bit. we'll watch the goods. we'll watch the tariff that's expected to go up. but watch that and watch inflation expectations. it's pretty clear what the fed has to do. and i think you know you could complain i know some around the table there do complain about the fed's transparency. maybe it talks too much. but the upside of that is you get to look at all the data and kind of know how they think about this stuff and what they're going to do. so there's a lot of transparency. you got to think a little harder than if it was just one person talking. but i think you can make up your mind when the data come in. >> and i guess we will, and we'll watch that data come in

over the next days, weeks, months, whatever it may be. steve liesman long day. great stuff all day long. steve. thank you very much. okay. we're going to pass from steve to steve. so steve grasso i'm going to kick it off with you just because the name was top of mind. nice. what steve liesman on more. well listen two big interviews today. waller made comments i just don't know if anybody has any visibility, including jay powell on down, about where things are going to be given. we don't know what oil prices are going to do. inflation is going to do. tariffs are going to do. so. you know, when you look at the treasury secretary, besson, he had mentioned that. >> the fed is tight and he used that against a two year. so the two year in the fed funds rate two years around 4% fed funds rate floating four and a quarter or 450, let's call it 4.3%. if that's the benchmark. we're tight right now. and what are the things that increase inflation? what's a third of cpi housing? a third of ppi housing. so the fed's rolling off 35

billion off of that balance sheet karen knows i've been on this for a while. maybe too myopic on it. that increases increases an inflated ten year increases in inflated 30 year mortgage. so if we're not going to attack that mortgage rate, then i think that the fed is just going to remain handcuffed. and the fed by their nature are always late. they're always looking at the data. they're always looking at something in the rear view mirror. so to daly's point, i agree with her. and i agree with waller. i think you have to be ahead of the curve here. if you were to cut 25 basis points, you just get static right on that two year. i think that's probably the thing they should do. and i and i can't for the life of me figure out why they just. >> they did they did they did cut rates last year by 75 basis. >> points now though. >> yeah i sort of come around to your camp of i do think they should cut 25 basis points. i think that we haven't seen the inflation really out of control at all. in fact, it's going the

right way and it seems to be moderating a fair amount. we don't know the full effect of tariffs, but to me it's starting to be that the fed is so burned from having thought things were transitory that they will never see anything transitory ever again. it has to be absolutely written in stone before they move, and maybe that's not quite the right thing. how badly could you really screw up? if you do cut 25 and then inflation is a little higher. all right then you wait. you wait longer before you cut again. so i'm sort of coming around to your. >> let's give tim seymour a promotion. he's now not only chairman of the federal reserve, he's all the fed. you are all the voting members. does tim seymour cut the fed funds rate at the next meeting? >> first of all, tim seymour wants to know if brian sullivan said it wasn't his choice to be here at the start of the show, because, i mean, i've got to tell you that, you know, this is. >> but it wasn't ours either. don't feel bad. >> i thought i heard. all right, i'm chairman of the fed. is it a food fight or is it a spat at at the dinner table, of which we

tend to have both in my house, i just, you know, i think this is all consistent with what we heard from powell. didn't he say he was not terribly concerned? wasn't the implication? we're not worried about pc at 3.1%. didn't he come out and say until the labor market starts to, you know, convulse? i'm not that worried about things. and that's why the wait and see 25 basis points okay. but but why. in other words i think the we know they're going to be late. he doesn't need to be early. so again, what we heard from waller today was reinforcing what i think is the outer edge of the dovish fed. but i think powell said just as much. the fact that they said they weren't worried about inflation from tariffs was enough for me to think that they are slightly dovish. >> you know carter, what's interesting was a lot interesting because they cut rates last year. as we said we tend to forget about that. but what's interesting is that we had a small moment for about two weeks where rates fell like the ten year was at what, 35 or 36? and everything sort of happened,

and then it just shot right back up. any way to chart the expectations, because the bond market and the federal reserve, i'm not going to say they're saying different things, but they don't necessarily appear to be humming the same tune. >> yeah. the key, what you said for a brief moment, there's a lot of brief moments. and at the end of the day, and there's just no way around this, brian, that the yield on the ten year us treasury, the yield on the two year note, are the exact same level right now as they were in the autumn of 2022. it's neither higher. >> than amazing. >> it's amazing. isn't that amazing? exactly. and so all of the effort and the spinning and toiling as to which way it's going, it's just it's nothing. it's vanity and it doesn't matter. one day it will, but it hasn't mattered. and so it's one of the reasons, i suppose, that people are willing to expand the multiple on the general equity market, because rates are neither a problem for being too hot or too cold. and that's why i have that bizarre phrase from

the child's story of goldilocks. >> yeah, and i think, carter, we talked we're going to talk about oil in a second. people will say, well, we don't buy oil, we buy gasoline. that's fair. most people that are watching and listening, they're not trading bonds, but they may want to buy a home. they may want mortgage rates to go down. they want to buy a car. they want to pay 9%. they want to pay 7%. so any sign, carter, you see anything? we're going to see a meaningful decline in macro borrowing costs over the next couple of months. >> no, but i remain in the lower rates camp. i mean, as i say, thank you for choosing a side. you either are buying bonds here or you are selling bonds. and i am in the camp that rates go lower. i'm a buyer of us ten year treasuries. >> buyer of us ten year treasuries maybe. and that means yields going down. maybe a little bit of good news there. all right. fed bond discussion done. let's move on to energy because oil settling a little bit lower today. but it's all on the ongoing israel-iran conflict. and your next guest says the commodity oil may be topping out at current levels.

paul sankey lead research, sankey research. so topping out paul welcome, by the way. thank you very i would assume with a giant asterisk which implies we don't have a, you know, a bunker buster bomb taking out the fordo nuclear site. >> yeah. i mean, i think that or a mine. >> laid in the persian gulf. >> no, i think look, brian, what happened was we got chopped up. we were we were talking short down at 60, you know, and it's gone up to 75. and i think the wall street view is that we're topping out here that you should fade this move. but having said that, you know, if you look back at the long history of let's bomb iran, potentially, which has been a 20 year question mark, the question was always, what do you do? day two you know, you can bomb iran, but then what are you going to do afterwards? nobody's going to invade. so you get a fragmented situation, probably with the revolutionary guard in charge, and you probably end up with a houthi style situation. that's the big risk. the dream scenario is. obviously iran becomes a new democracy and we all live happily ever after. but of course, the history of these

things, if you look at something like venezuela, is more like it's going to be an ongoing disaster area because nobody wants to go in there. so i'm very concerned about that side of the iranian story. having said that, iran has never been a reliable supplier of oil. so we're not looking at a situation like an attack on saudi, such as we saw in 19. and we also reflect back that actually, you haven't had an oil supply crisis out of the gulf that actually physically greatly affected oil markets since the 70s. and that, of course, was a missile war against tankers. and that's not off the table. if you just. >> look, that would be a super spike in the price, right? if we get some tanker that's hit by a rocket, two just collided. but you could say, well, they just screwed up and they hit a couple of. >> days because they've got the transponders off, right? i mean. >> well, were they off? they got jammed. right. what people were talking about. >> so there's clearly issues. but but the crazy thing at the moment is there's vast amounts of oil being delivered out of the gulf in a huge rush to get oil out of the gulf. and actually, the physical outages have been in israel. so i think

this is a real plot twist, which is new this time, which is israel previously wasn't a major gas supplier. now it is with the leviathan platform shut down two bcf a day. that's actually constraining egypt's gas supplies, desperately short energy. and so they're importing oil. and israeli refinery has been taken out. so that's had a major impact. so i think what people have missed here is that the actual energy impact has been on israel, and that's been what's hurting european gas prices, where again, they're behind on. >> i know everyone wants to jump in, but this is fast money. it's a stock show. so what does this all mean for the valero's. the world, the exxon's the world, the chevron's the refiners, the marathon's. >> the volatility is not good. right. so for the equities, you know, it's almost an argument to be a private refiner because the market's not going to reward you with this level of massive uncertainty. it's very hard to capitalize in oil price here. the market as you know from the futures point of view says this isn't going to last. it's heavily backwardated and then it's very flat forever. and one thing i always point out about a flat futures curve for oil is that it's nominally priced. so actually, if we're in a world where we're trying to buy gold

hard assets, anything that's hard to defend against inflation, it's interesting that the oil price implicitly real is really backwardated, if you know what i mean. so if you would, if you would deflate it, that's a little bit of an involved point. but there seems to just be an absolute conviction on wall street. and i've been as guilty of this as anyone that this is a peaking out. and in fact, a couple of big hedge funds have been talking to this week are just using the argument, hey, everyone thinks fade this. everyone says, you know, this is not going to last. and they're actually tempted to get back in the original 40 call that we made was about if there's far too much oil, how low do we have to go to shut down us emp. and in fact, what happened is, you know, is the us emps cut back capex at the first sign of trouble. we've never seen them cut back capex with oil in the 60s as a preemptive move. and of course, now, you know, so the idea that they would just keep producing onwards and onwards. and finally, there seems to be pretty good demand for oil out there. but it is summer. so i think the real, the real time to get negative oil is always after

labor day. >> so we've seen oil, the energy sector underperformed for quite a long time now. is there some i understand the potential pervasive bearishness and the backward or, you know, profound backwardation. we don't really see that way. but is there anything that makes you bullish aside from everybody so bearish? >> i mean, i genuinely believe that these oils will generate a cash return to shareholder that's undervalued in the market over time. you know, but this is not a market that that buys, you know, the warren buffett school of benjamin graham style. you know, present value of future free cash flows. and so even with the oil age seemingly lasting a lot longer than we would have thought five years ago, or certainly it was discounted in the market in 2020, 2021, when it was the energy transition and oil was dead and bp was saying, you know, we're going to have to not be an oil company. everything that's happened since then tells you the oil age, particularly the gas age, is going to continue for another 50 years, and the market's not paying enough for the cash returns that are implicit. >> i know we got to go bp they

try to change the beyond petroleum. yeah bp has been a disaster for years. the ceo got whacked like yeah bp get bought by shell. >> you know i'm not sure it potentially it could be a deal ultimately because bp is so cheap. or it could be for example we've seen abu dhabi get into australia. you know, who knows how much they're going to pick up around the world in terms of buying assets. but at the moment i think that whale someone is very clear that he's going to run shell to get shell right. and he's there's a really good message at shell, which is it's sequential. let's get shell right. first, let's think about if we're not being rewarded moving to the us. and maybe one day we'll do a bp deal. but i really don't know why he would confuse the story and get involved with the uk government. and you know, it's every time i talk about the uk government, i'm just so disappointed with what they've done with the north sea and how badly our energy policy has been run. it's been, to me a disaster. >> yeah, well, they found out that it's you can't run the world on windmills and dreams. >> imported wood chips from america. no.

>> no, that's. and that's what they're doing. i loved your comment about abu dhabi getting into australia. they bought santos or buying santos, which is also a big producer in alaska. so abu dhabi is now buying into alaska. >> by the way, brian mitsubishi japan buying into us cmp. you know, so other people will see the value in oils if the if the public markets don't. >> so i think when you when you really look at these things do we do we say goodbye to the guest. >> we did buy. he's still here but we're going to say goodbye. >> so to your point, when you look at the refineries, if you if you look at valero and you look at mpc, those are the ones who have outperformed the large integrated names. i think you stay with those names going forward. and if you look at e&p companies, they have really not performed. i'd stay with the refinery. >> and marathon had a huge fire at its biggest refinery last sunday. no one paid attention because what was going on in iran, luckily, nobody was hurt. in the meantime, amd separating itself from the rest of the semiconductor stocks. amd stock up 10% this week, while the rest of the chip sector up just 1%. so why? well, the wall street

journal reporting that the u.s. is preparing to revoke certain waivers for foreign semiconductor makers that use american technology in china. so tim seymour explained this to us like we're fifth graders, because there's a lot of double negatives in the revoke not use waivers. what exactly is happening? >> i think this is about promoting the, you know, the american or the sorry, the us producers here, but i don't think that today's news is part of the amd outperformance. remember amd's underperformed nvidia by 60% in the last 12 months. this is about both positioning underperformance. amd just came out of their event where they they gave a lot of insight into the 350 and the 400 chips. these are chips people have forgotten about when in the early days of ai, it was really seen as they were a distant number two, but they were a number two. so to me, this is i wouldn't call it relative value because nvidia is cheaper. i think this is relative

positioning and where i think there's a lot more momentum. meanwhile, their core business, their cpu business is actually doing quite well. i don't think today's news, i think it just highlights the fact that there is rotation going on in the chip space, even though yes, us producers and those that are strategically aligned with this, this administration and government are going to outperform. >> yeah, yeah, i think on a relative basis, nvidia, everything that you said to start off this, this segment is negative, more negative on a relative basis for. >> i'm not sure what i said. >> yeah. no, no, no one is at this point i can't. >> no but you get my point. they're revoking a waiver. >> i think i remember you saying you weren't happy to be here. that's. >> no. >> i'm kidding, i'm joking. obviously, my job was a joke. i was trying to make it. >> friday, but the. >> idea is negatives. >> the government may revoke the waiver. so right now, they allow the tsmc the world to sell technology developed in america to china. the idea of this story is that they want to revoke that waiver, which allows them to sell into china. i think. >> anything that anything that

hurts an nvidia helps an amd. amd is 5% reliant on china revenues. nvidia is probably 10 to 16% thereabouts. so if amd can gain market share, that's why you see a relative outperformance. i would say amd over nvidia. >> okay. well it certainly worked this week. coming up a building bidding boom. the nuts and bolts on why home depot may be ready to join the battle for a big distributor you probably never heard of, but it's a multi-billion dollar deal. plus, is there any stopping netflix? why? analysts see even more room to run for the streaming company, as shares inch back up toward record highs. we got a towar aline trusts prevagen a lot more for her brain and this is her story. i'm aline and i live in castle valley, california. my husband, barney, and i have been married for 32 years. i think the most important thing in life is to stay healthy. i went to the drug store and i discovered prevagen.

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>> all right. welcome back. home depot. reportedly joining the battle to buy building products distributor g.m.s. the offer, reported by the wall street journal, comes after rival bid $95.20 a share for gms on wednesday, valuing the company nobody's heard of unless you're a builder at $5 billion. gm's shares closed the day above $100. they're up 32% this week

karen you're watching all of this roll in. >> yes. so i am long qcso, which is brad jacobs next vehicle to roll up in industry. >> brad jacobs started xpo. >> he started xpo, he started united rentals, rolled up that industry very fragmented. the whole sort of theory here was this whole home building related distribution companies around america are very fragmented, not run particularly well or efficiently. we can roll them up. we can do so much better. they did their first deal beacon, and right after that other targets started trading up like this one. and then they sent a letter with a 95, $20, $95.20 proposal, allegedly, and i believe at home depot put something higher out there. will probably see on monday what that is now that for qcso bumped their bid for beacon. i think they have more in their pocket here for sure, even though they're trying to talk that down. but we'll see. it's sort

of an old fashioned bidding war, i think. >> yeah. and brad jacobs, like they called him a dealmaker. you're right. united rentals xpo now this carter chart this. >> well interestingly it has a high of 105 back in november and today's high 105. it always is a mystery but it's not meaning i have a lot of friends who are in the investment banking world and they you ask them, what do you think? why do you determine the price? you might propose to have something taken out? well, we put it exactly at the all time high, where no one who owns the shares could be unhappy. meaning i'll bet you if it's going to go out, it'll go out right here at 105. not a penny higher as to the one karen was talking about, that has a lot of talk to it day to day, and i would be long. >> all right. let's anybody else grasso. do we have time. well we could yeah i think comment to. >> everything that karen said. on a fundamental side i think home depot this gives them a tremendous advantage over over lowe's the professional buyer. >> if they get the bid i mean they may not maybe brad jacobs. >> well.

>> they're gigantic comes back in. >> yeah. but home depot is a fierce competitor. they can afford to pay whatever they want. >> yeah. >> and the professional goes to home depot by by an average of 2 to 1. so the, the professionals that shop at home depot are 50% of their revenue versus lowe's, which is 25%. this probably just adds to that separation between the two. >> all right. i think you guys nailed it. there's a lot more fast money coming up. here's what's ahead. >> netflix to new highs. why wall street sees even more room to run for the streaming giant. and the high value content analysts say could boost the binging plus stablecoin surge. the massive move in a recent ipo as crypto clears a landmark regulation hurdle. you're watching fast money live from the nasdaq market site in times the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back (wind, rain and rolling thunder) (♪♪) nobody's born with grit. british anncr: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time.

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what does a good investment opportunity look like? at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like ai. and how the industries born to support ai might better support us all. better questions. better outcomes. if you're going to do something, you might as well do it well. >> all right. welcome back. this is really interesting. there's a news alert on apple bloomberg reporting that apple held internal talks about potentially buying perplexity artificial intelligence earlier today. cbc

confirmed that meta had approached perplexity also about a potential deal decided against. it went with scale i tim seymour. i think what's fascinating and maybe perplexity is just shopping itself here, who knows? and letting reporters know, who knows? but apple has never been a buyer really, of anything. they just build it. this would be clearly the biggest deal apple's ever done. >> i mean, if anything, you're selling google on this news. but i think this is not surprising to hear that they've kicked the tires. whether this is a deal they find done right isn't their biggest deal beats at this point. so and all we do is talk about where apple is not positioned in ai. so interesting headline, but right. who hasn't looked? i would be surprised if this deal gets done. but that's what happens when you make bold statements on live tv. i have no idea. >> well, that's kind of what we do. i mean, but karen, my point would be and listen. perplexity private company. there's ai

competitors. we i don't think it's we know there's going you don't need to use ai to know there's going to be deal making in this space. there has to be there's too many providers. would it would it be bullish for apple? would it be neutral for apple? negative for apple. do we have any idea. >> i'm thinking sort of bullish i mean so much has been made of apple not having you know they're just so far behind in ai. it's interesting why we hear this story about perplexity from meta and then later from apple. i mean i think the last round of perplexity was done at. >> 14 billion. i'm looking. >> at 14 billion. 14 billion, to your. >> point, on a multiple. >> how big of a deal for apple? that'd be way better. what would they pay? >> what would they pay if the if the and we're going to just we call this wild speculation i think on national tv. yeah. so perplexity is valued at 14 as of december the last funding round. it's more than that now. what would the multiple have to be to buy? how much would apple pay for a 14 billion valuation company? 25. see, this is why we

get into whether. >> it's bullish or bearish for apple because apple. >> right to the price. >> but but but apple could could pay royalties right. so that that was the normal thing. the conversation was was was perplexing. >> it when you could just. >> why buy it when you could rent it, pay pay per use or pay per click or pay per whatever? >> because then you get. >> away with. >> google, you can control the content. >> yeah. and that's assuming they want to control the content. >> well bbc just sued perplexity alleging you know, whatever. who knows what's right. >> but who knows. but a royalty deal will get doesn't even need approval. right. so you don't you don't need any regulatory approval the same way that you would need it. >> sounds like grass with the investment bankers telling apple don't make the deal. >> i would say i would say don't make the baby because we just talked about beats was a $3 billion acquisition. this is the valuation is 14 billion. is it smart to do right now when you usually either rent it or imitate. they're never innovative. they replicate, they're replicative. and this would be a break from that tradition of replicating. i don't know, it's.

>> they built the iphone. i mean, they did innovate that. they killed the blackberry. remember, the blackberry was great. >> fare, but that guy's not here anymore. >> yeah. no, he's not steve jobs. all right. coming up is the some is this really going to be the summer of stablecoins. the stock circle hitting a record after record after record. what is really driving record. what is really driving the gains. we're ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. presentation looks great. thanks! thanks! voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices so you can reach today's financial goals. that one! and look forward, to a more confident future. that is one dynamic duo. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. it's a rare thing when someone you've been with for so long finds a way to surprise you.

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regain his lunch break. try now for free. visit otter.ai or download the app. >> all right, let's do a quick reset. stocks closing out the holiday shortened week. the dow up 35 points. that's it. that's 0.08%. yesterday holiday the weekend. summer. we don't know what's going to happen with iran. nobody's making big commitments. the nasdaq did fall a little bit today about one half of 1%. by the way your top performer was kroger. the grocery store chain up 10%. nearly 10%. company raising its full year sales outlook. the grocer's interim ceo saying kroger is drawing shoppers seeking lower prices, as opposed to shoppers seeking higher prices. i either way, that's i guess, what would you expect them to say? all right,

meantime, shares of stablecoin issuers circle continuing their surge up another 20% today. senate passing what some call the genius bill that's how they named it, will establish a federal framework for u.s. dollar peg stablecoins. circle up about 700% since going public. your next guest says there's a lot of fomo fear of missing out around stablecoins and circle. dan dolev, managing director and senior fintech analyst at mizuho. dan, i don't i'm going to be honest, i don't have any idea what to say about circle anymore. they buy treasuries and issue people money. it seems like a money market account. what am i missing here? >> i don't think you're. hey. hey, brian. good to have. good to be on the show. i don't think you guys are missing anything. it's basically like behaving like an unregulated money market account. and i agree with you. there's a lot of fomo around stablecoins. you're seeing that in the movements in visa and mastercard, which i think are unmerited. i think it's going to settle itself out, you know,

come full circle at some point when people realize that the business model is really just money markets. >> it's. darren, thanks for being on it's karen. so i mean, aside from the excitement around the bill and all of that, i mean, this looks like a fairly classic squeeze. if you look at where the options are priced and you know, do you see it? i mean, do you see people who are who legitimately think there's a valuation here at this level versus the whatever 40 it was two weeks ago? >> it's a great point. it feels to me like it's very retail driven and very story and narrative driven. i don't have i don't have a particular view on on circle. we don't cover it, but just in general, there's so much buzz and not the regulation. and you have the secretary, the treasury secretary saying it's a $3.7 trillion market or tam. all these things drive up stocks in general and drive down the potential stocks that are getting disrupted, even though we don't think they are.

>> so, dan, getting back to where you started tvi 99% of the driven by reserves backing. so to brian's point, treasuries. so if that interest rate does come down that should have a dramatic impact. you would think in a normalized world on the stock. >> you nailed it 100%. people don't realize that it's an interest rate play. and they give you some of the you know, they they give the consumers some of the love, right. so if you're coinbase and you're mint or you're issuing or you're you're you're helping them sell the coins, coinbase is getting some of the love or a lot of the love. it's actually better for coinbase than for circle. we can talk about it another time. once rates come down, it's going to be very difficult to make money in stablecoins in this environment. >> really. >> that's it's a fascinating story. i have no idea where it's going to go, but you seem to have an idea. dan dolan, we

appreciate that view. dan, thank you very much. tim, your what is your take on circle? i rarely get left speechless, but with this one i am. >> well, again, i think we framed it pretty well. the dynamic around the margin of that business is in its core business is, is, is not there. the leverage that's applied to the model is partly what people are doing here. and assuming that things only move in one direction for the company, dan, like i'm on coinbase and i think this was a fantastic week for coinbase. again, the genius act, the dynamics that i think people don't appreciate in coinbase is that base is a major infrastructure platform for stablecoins and for the digital world. so it's not just the on ramp in terms of people trading digital stuff. and i think that's why this stock coinbase had a huge week. and i think that's the play. >> yeah. carter you want to get in there. >> well coinbase has a pattern. goes is excellent right. you've got all the things you want. you have bullish price volume

correlation great relative strength. and i would think it's headed immediately higher. as to circle of course that's an instance of insufficient price history. no pattern to interpret. >> but final word karen very quickly you think there is there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff under the hood here. >> yes, yes. i wouldn't touch it even though i think there's something to it. we'll see. great transformation. but at this price. >> you wouldn't touch it with grasso's money, i wouldn't. there you go. coming up. we're going to be lacing up for nike's results next week. mike co is bringing us an options trade for when the numbers cross that trade. and mike when we come back. >> you are cleared for takeoff. >> why go commercial when you can have all the comforts of private? the all new infiniti qx80. take luxury to new heights

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gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. all next week on cnbc and streaming on cnbc plus. >> all right. nike is one of the biggest names reporting their earnings next week. options traders are betting that the stock will take off after thursday's report michael coe joining us now. mike what are you seeing in the options market. >> yeah we're seeing some pretty big anticipated moves whether it's going to be higher or lower. that of course still remains a bit of a question. right now, the options market is implying that the one day earnings related move is going to be more than 8% and more than 9% by the end of next week after they report, you know, the way i think you might want to think about trading. this is buying some longer dated. i was looking at the october 55th puts. i

bought those today and then sold the june 27th weekly 57 strike puts a higher strike put against it to collect some premium. to y to sell some of that elevated premium. this is kindink this sy out of the woods, but there's somebody on the panel right now who's a lot more qualified than i am to speak to that. >> and that would be carter. >> well very kind. so let's talk about it. we have two charts. if it's productive and helpful, let's pull them up and try to figure it out together. the first thing that's quite shocking is that i mean, the stock is the exact same price it was at its covid low. i mean, there are other beaten down great franchises or brands like disney, but not even no one is as bad as this. so the question is, well, isn't that the opportunity? isn't that the reason it's cheap? shouldn't one just hold one's nose? there's no technique known for just buying a stock in a downtrend just because one thinks it's cheap. usually it's right for it to

base and bottom. that's what a bearish to bullish reversal is. be willing to miss some of the moves. so again quite symmetrical. it's 60 at the covid low it triples to 180 collapses back to 60. we have a comparative chart that also is informative. and this is looking at the shares relative to the spx. and therein lies the tale. it's shocking. but again it's usually right to resist buying anything that's in an established downtrend. be willing to wait and miss some of the perspective move and then go after it. >> tim. >> i'd go after it. i'd certainly go after it relative to some of the high fliers in the space that i think have a valuation. that doesn't make sense. it's hard to say. nike's cheap. i don't think carter's saying that and it's not really how he rolls. i'll say it's not cheap, but that's not really the call. if, if, if nike is dead on innovation and we're paying zero, i guess in terms of the valuation towards their position

as the largest athleisure brand in the world, then i think there's a lot of other names you want to sell here. i think nike the digestion of lack of innovation and china concerns, you know, i think it's well in the price. and therefore i think there are other names that if i wanted to own nike, i think i could be hedging on the downside. and i do think whether it's a deckers or an on on, i know there are hot brands. you're probably wearing some right now brian, but i, i, i'm not afraid of owning nike here. >> there's a lot of nonpublic and public competition. nike that's the problem. they've lost their innovation stock tried to rally. it failed. nike should probably think about buying perplexity. that would be a good purchase. and i'm wearing and they should ask why their stock is not doing well. that would be my first question on perplexity. there you go. i'm wearing rockports, tim. so. it's a young man. >> that's a good look. >> for you. it's a good look coming up, serving up some restaurant action. the numbers from darden's latest report and why mcdonald's stock the

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beat earnings estimates. they gave an upbeat forecast for the year ahead. kate rogers what is darden doing right. >> hey brian. so it was a beat on the top and bottom lines for olive garden parent darden. driven by its same store sales gains. they were up 4.6% overall olive garden up 6.9%. really leading the pack. darden stock is among the best performers in the sector for the year. it's up around 20% year to date alongside papa john's and just behind wingstop, which is the best performing name so far. it's also far outperforming other casual names like bloomin brands, down around 25% year to date. texas roadhouse is up just around 6%, and the category as a whole is relatively strong right now in casual due to both demographic exposure and the appearance of value. the proposition of simply getting more for your money is really resonating in the casual space, more so than fast food and quick service. darden execs said this morning that casual is just a good deal for the money, as they

put it. it's seeing income growth everywhere except for those making under $50,000 annually. and it's also seeing particularly strong growth from 150 k and up households. and on that topic, getting hit again today, mcdonald's. it got multiple downgrades last week from wall street with concerns over that low income consumer. the stock had its fifth straight negative week worst week since mid-march march, rather, and it's also on track for its worst month since march of 2020. wall street across the board just concerned about the momentum with the low income consumer. although there are a few catalysts for mcdonald's in the weeks and months to come, including the snack wrap coming back on july 10th, which i know a lot of people are looking forward to. >> we know that this nation is chronically underserved food, and we need to have a fourth meal. kate rogers. thank you very much, steve grasso. but on a serious level. listen, the reality is this you could pay whatever, 12, 15 bucks at a fast food place or go to a fast casual place, sit down, spend a little more, but have more of that. that trend that we've talked about and cramer's talked about it showing up in the

numbers. yeah. well i think darden is that sweet spot between, as you said, the sit down fast casual i think is by the way, olive garden is probably one of my favorite restaurants growing up. really. i'm not kidding. the grasso family christmas italian tradition i grew, i grew up, i grew up half in half in the bronx and then in westchester. and let me tell you something, the olive garden. if i could drag my kids to olive garden right now, they would have the best. delicious. and you get a lot. let's look at the stock though. the stock's been great mcdonald's not chart looks spectacular on that on that stock. and if you look at shake shack this is coming to an interesting point to the january 2025 level where it stalled and rolled over. if we could pass that level, i think shake shack is a buy as well. let's go now to carbonara. seymour. tim, what do you what do you have to say? darden. everyone gave him grief for shutting down red lobster. and now the stock's at a record high. >> first of all, i had no idea steve was an olive garden aficionado, so that.

>> never was the right word. breadsticks. >> as as someone that's been a long time holder of mcdonald's and doesn't hold it here, but but recognizes to me just how they perform almost in all seasons. and i think this is a great time to be trying to pick up on mcdonald's the sentiment around this stock, you know, and it's a 20% move now, which finally has kind of caught up to it. i think it's interesting. >> it is. and it's been interesting. mcdonald's. that's for a different show. we're going to take a short break. final trades next. >> when pioneering investments create waves of change waves that ripple across the world, when an investment elevates travel experiences, when an investment nurtures innovation and accelerates new technologies to expand your horizons and go further than you ever dreamed you could. that's the piff

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hey, i got her a little something. a little something, dad? oh, umm. excuse me. hi. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira and planned for times like this. so i say, let a gramps be a gramps. okay, just promise me it doesn't make a lot of noise. [motor roars] go, baby! go! ♪♪ thanks, grandpa! get good at money. so you can be a little bad. empower. wooo! let's go! we need sample from living dinosaurs. you wanna take sample while they're alive? first of all, brian, you should think about some chess king with your brockport's or whatever they're called. total energy

european integrated or 10% free cash flow yield at $65 oil. they're worth owning. carter. worth. i'm a seller of. >> oil, and i think we're headed back below $70 a barrel. you can use uso as the vehicle. >> karen, first of all, thank you for being here. hard work on a friday night. i like lily down on the story of uk not covering their alzheimer's drug, but i like it. >> steve walmart back on the bull train. love it guys. thanks for taking it easy on me i appreciate it by the way. long live chess king. mad money starts right now. >> hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. other people make