tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN January 15, 2017 7:00am-8:01am PST
how does the new american administration see the world and how does the world view the next president? i have a great panel. kim jong-un has threatened to test launch a missile that's able to deliver a nuclear warhead all the way to the united states. just how should america react to this? is he mad or dangerous or both? and drumpb has threatened to kill tpp, and build a wall. >> you will pay a large tax. >> can he do it all? what will be the consequences? i'll ask president obama's trade representative. first, here's my take. donald trump has attacked no country as consistently as he has china. during his campaign he said china was raping the united states, killing it on trade and
artificially depressing its currency to make chinese goods cheap. since being elected he's spoken to the leader of taiwan. it was a surprise to me on a recent trip to beijing to find chinese elites sanguine about trump. it says more about how they see their own country. trump is a negotiator and the rhetoric is all part of his opening bid said a chinese scholar who would not agree to be named. he likes to make deals and we're good deal makers as well. there's several agreements we could make on trade. chinese officials say they have economic weapons as well. they are a huge market for american goods and they are becoming far less dependent on foreign markets for its growth. today they make up just 22% and
falling. china has changed, you know. western brands there are rare and the country's own companies now dominate almost every aspect of the human and growing domestic chinese economy. few businesses take their cues from american firms anyone. many young chinese boasted their local versions of google, amazon and facebook are better, faster and more sophisticated than the originals. the country has become its own internally focused universe. the next stage in their strategy is to exploit the leadership vacuum being created by america's retreat on trade. as trump was promising protectionism and threatening to wall off america from its southern neighbor, chinese president made a trip through latin america. his third in four years. he signed over 40 deals and committed billions of dollars of investments in the region.
the center piece of china strategy takes advantage of trump's declaration that the transpacific partnership is dead. that agreement between the united states and 11 other countries lowered barriers to trade and investment pushing large economies like japan and vietnam is a more open and rural base direction. china has offered up its on version of the pact. one that excludes america and favors china's approach. austral australia oneself a key backer of the tpp announced it supports chi china's alternative. at the cooperation summit in peru in november, john key, put it simply. >> tpp was all about the asian and the united states showing leadership in the region. the void has to be filled. it will be filled by china.
>> in fact, the president's speech at the summit was remarkable sounding more like an address made by an american president. it praised trade, integration and openness and promised to ensure that countries don't close themselves off. looking beyond his angry tweet, beijing seems to conclude that donald trump's presidency might prove to be the best thing that's happened to china in a long time. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column, and let's get started. what do we know about the incoming administration and its view of the world? rex tillerson, james mattis were quizzed by congress this week. what did we learn? to discuss it all are three men who have new books out.
richard haass, john avlon and tony brenton joins us. he does not have a new book out, but he's a knight. that will have to suffice. richard, what do you make of this week? you had tillerson. people aren't saying the same thing trump has been saying on the campaign trail. >> that's the answer to your question. you asked about the new administration's world view. i think you have to make it plural. you have different people coming up with different world views and it's a contrast between any of them and all of them and what
the candidate and what the president-elect has been saying since he's been in the public eye. >> won't the president win? at the end of the day, it's not cabinet government like in west minister. he's the president. >> the president can set the broad outlines but there's so much detail in governance where there's friction and that seems in part possible for a second reason. you have so many people at the white house. this is a very center heavy administration because you have the normal crowd, the president, the vice president, the head of the national security and chief strategist and the son-in-law as a special advisor. you have kellyanne conway and you have a clear divide between the president-elect and the entire intelligence community. all of this suggests to me that to use the phrase world view is optimistic. >> what does this look like from europe? if you're watching this new
administration it does feel pretty unusual. i don't think i've seen anything like it. the nature of the rhetoric, the break from the past. how does it look to you? >> especially for admirers of america, for people who like me, admire the rules and the principles of american democracy, there are few things that don't go well. to name as a special advisor, his own son-in-law, this is strange. to name the ceo of a big oil company, this is strange. in general, one of the characteristics of america is this part son, you have a president-elect to now who said he's admiration, his devotion, gave a triple a, who said good
job was done by the chief of the most enemy nation today of america. all this is strange. i don't see -- i've been here a few days, but i don't see such turmoil or such stress about that. a president elected who mays part of his election to the hacking of the system by the worst enemy of america, i thought i would find riots in the street of washington, d.c. and of new york. >> let me ask you, tony brenton about this issue of russia involvement and russian behavior because you were the ambassador to russia during the russian defect defector, the russian government poisoned while in london. you lived through this.
was it easy to put the finger at putin himself as having ordered this as an assassination? >> it's a very relevant example. we looked deeply into the intelligence to find out what had been going on. there was a certain amount we could establish. it was very, very difficult to establish how high up responsibility went. you could guess that putin was involved. that's very relevant to the assessments that are being made of russian involvement and hacking of the election and this whole dossier that accused president-elect trump of operating in collusion with the russians over quite a long period and making all sorts of promises about the u.s. moving to russia. the dossier itself while it's a pretty sophisticated piece of work, it's also deeply
implausible in a few ways. i've been inclined to put that aside. we know we're dealing with russia that did the hacking without doubt and which is a very troublesome presence today on the international scene. on the other hand, relations between the west and russia, between the united states and russia have become dangerously bad over the last three months. russians have talked about putting nuclear warheads on their missiles in northern russia. the chief of the joint chiefs of staffs in washington have talked about having to go to war with russia in order to impose the u.s. view in syria. president trump's arrival does offer an opportunity to get that tension a bit more under control. >> we're going to have to take a break. when we come back i'm going to ask john avlon to compare the farewell addresses of barack obama and george washington.
i was to say about that dossier it's important to note that neither cnn or any mainstream news organization has been able to corroborate the specifics of what was in the dossier, which is why it was not ever reported on by cnn. other news organizations have talked about its con tetents. when we come back, farewell addresses. i'll have that goat cheese garden salad. that gentleman got the last one. sir, you give me that salad and i will pay for your movie and one snack box. can i keep the walnuts? sold. but i get to pick your movie. can i pick the genre? yes, but it has to be a comedy.
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and we are back with richard haass, bernard-henri levy, tony brenton and john avlon. when you read these things seems relevant. washington warns about in that farewell address and one of the things he worries will endanger american democracy is foreign meddling in our democratic experiment. >> that's exactly right. here is where one of washington's warnings does feel ripped from the headlines. washington bore the fights over
france and england a questions about whether america should throw in with one of them. the reason they failed in the past was going back to city states. foreign powers would infiltrate the government and overtake the other nation. he was very conscious of the fact that america needed to be an independent nation strong on the world stage in its own right. when he witnessed france trying to undermine his its own government it recalled those examples. russian hacking attempts to polarize foreign policy. no longer does partisanship end at the water's edge. when you see poll numbers showing russian approval of vladmir putin goes up after news of the hacking is revealed that's a dangerous sign we're in deep and unchartered territory where foreign policy is becoming partisan and abject ennemies of the united states is dangerous
stuff with historic resonance. george washington warned those sorts of relationships that confusing of another nation's interest with our own has destroyed democrat republics throughout history. >> you talk about a world in disarray. i wonder the thing washington worried about this corrosion of democracy, to have a unified front against something like a challenge from russia or china. is that part of the sense of the disarray? >> absolutely. in some ways we have a country in disarray. we seen the dysfunctionalty of washington time and time again. we can't deal with entitlements and can't deal with budgets. i talked about elements of a administration in disarray. there's a world in disarray. the inbox that's going to greet donald trump on january 20th is extraordinary. the sheer range of issues with
number and difficulty from a nuclear north korea, with ballistic missiles that can tie these weapons to the continental united states. it continues to unravel. >> it once held the world together is dissolving. can it really be put back. >> the glue that held the world is dissolving. the institutions are inadequate. we need institutions now. new arrangements to take into account the reality of globalization, that nothing is local anymore and what goes inside any country has the potential to affect everybody else. we don't have the means to deal with that. the other piece of the glue that's missing is the united states. this world is not self-governing. without the united states thing unravel. we've seen that starkly in the middle east. to some extent we're seeing it in europe and asia.
the mere fact that things were said during the campaign and transition, i think the rest of the world is waking up to the fact this is not the united states they knew. this is not quite the united states they could count on. what worries me is we're going to wake up and start to see what i would call a self-help world where more and more countries will start taking matters into their own hands doing things like proliferating nuclear weapons. this can't be a world that's orderly and good for the united states. >> that seems to me the great danger in europe, bernard, if the united states does not keep europe together, for example, on the issue of ukraine and dealing with russia, there will be sort of a competition, a return to a kind of competition in europe as to each country having its own security policy and maybe germany making certain guarantees and the french getting upset. this was precisely the u.s. blanket of security meant you didn't have to have the various
competing securities. >> about glue first. it's true we had two glues. number one were the u.n. u.n. is discredited today alas since the aleppo resolution. since all the resolutions about syria failed. u.n. is discredited. absolutely done. again, as an admirer of this country that today when barack obama, august 29th, 2013, said there was red line not to be crossed by syria but when it was crossed that nothing happened. this day, still today, these last three years so decline of the american glue. as for europe, europe will be built by herself. we must not count on others to do our job and the forces of
disillusion to europe are europeans. we need our alliance. we need nato and one thing that's really concerning about president-elect is that he said very clearly that he would really consider the rule of the rul rules. i was in one of the baltic states and i was in poland. in these brave countries who escaped the dictatorship, there's a new climate. they are afraid. they are living again in a state of anxiety in front of this dominant and imperilist russia and with this failing alliance. >> tony, what does a world without american leadership look
like? will it be a self-help world as richard describes? >> yes, i think it very much will be. i think we're moving back to a world of competing great powers and that's as richard said it will be a much more difficult world to manage. it's one of the countries breaking out of the old world order. i think he's wrong to talk about dominant russia. russia has one-tenth of the west's military expenditure. it feels threatened and challenged by us while we continue to view it as a threat. it seems an important piece of business for the west and mr. trump as we move into this new competitive order is to ask what that order will look like and pretty visibly the biggest geopolitical competition within it. it becomes an important supplementary question to ask whose side do we want russia to
be on. on instinctive competition with russia, challenging russia, threatening russia, perhaps requires some new thinking in this context. >> pleasure to have you on. this debate about russia will continue. next on gps, the united states has for decades been the world's largest proponent of liberal democracy. rights of all kinds of things like free speech, but is america on the path to turning into an ill liberal democracy? i'll explore when we come back. obviously, ohhh... e but with added touches you can't get everywhere else, like claim free rewards... or safe driving bonus checks. oh yes.... even a claim satisfaction guaranteeeeeeeeeee!
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now for our what in the world segment. i wrote a article that described a worrying trend. the rise of ill liberal democracy. many places where people could vote and governments were elected, i noticed the rule of law respect for minority, freedom of the press and other such traditions were being inored or abused. today i worry remight be watching the rise of ill liberal democracy in the united states. something that should concern anyone. what we think of democracy in
the modern world is the fusing of two different traditions. one is public participation in selecting leaders. there's a much older tradition in western politics that since the magna carta in 1215 centered on the rights of individuals against arbitrary arrests, sensorsh sensorshcentur sensorship, et cetera. they were eventually protected not just from the abuse of a tyrant but also from democratic ma jjoritie majorities. the bill of rights is a list of things that democratic majorities cannot do. liberty and law on the one hand and popular participation on the other became intertwined became liberal democracy. it was clear that in a number of countries from hungary from russia to turkey to iraq to the
fe philippines, the two strands have come apart. liberty is under siege. many of the countries adopted fine constitutions, followed best practices from the advanced world. in the end liberal democracy was erodesed any way. you see it turns out that what sustains democracy is not legal safety guards and rules but norms and practices, democratic behavior. this culture of liberal democracy is waning in the united states. the founding fathers were skeptical of democracy itself and conceived of america as a republic to mitigate some of the dangers of a liberal democracy. the bill of repoights, state government, senate are all bull works against majority rule. the united states also developed a democratic culture, formed in large part by a series of
informal buffers that worked in similar ways. nongovernmental groups from quiet society to professional associations and argued they acted to weaken the moral empire of the majority. alexander hamilton felt that ministers, lawyers would be the impartial a impartial arbitrors of democracy. the two prevailing dynamics in the united states over the past few decades have been to destroy these intermediate associations either because of democratic openness or market efficiency. congressional decision making has gone from being closed to open and free. political parties have lost their internal strength and now are vessels for whoever wins the primaries. gills and other professional
associations have lost all their moral authority and have become highly competitive in secure organizations who members do not and probably can't afford to act in ways of the public interest. the media, the only interest protected in in the constitution has fierce competition between thousands of new platforms that's the dominant dynamic. we're getting to see what american democracy looks like without any of those real buffers that stand in the way of sheer populism. the parties have collapsed, congress has caved. professional groups are largely toothless. the immediate wmedia has been r from congressman, accountant to lawyer always hustling for personal advantage. who and what then remain to nourish and preserve the common good, civic life, liberal
democracy. next, an external threat to america from north korea. kim jong-un says he will test launch an icbm which would hit the mainland u.s. what to make of all that? what super poligrip does for me is it keeps the food out. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. just a few dabs is clinically proven to seal out more food particles. super poligrip is part of my life now. i use what's already inside me
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mainland america. this comes after the rogue nation conducted two nuclear tests in 2016. sources say he's determined to develop the weapon before 2017 is out. donald trump tweeted the following, north korea just stated its in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of hitting the u.s. it won't happen. what could he do? he joins us from the center for strategic and international studies where he's the korea chair. what do you make of north korean capabilities and kim jong-un's threats/boasts/promise? >> they're not there yet, but they could be if they keep working at it. they have short range missiles that can hit south korea and
japan including hitting our 30,000 u.s. troops that are there. can they put a nuclear warhead on those missiles? the state department says no, not yet. i hope they're right. but after five tests, most countries have perfected the technique with pretty advanced design. north korea has five tests. if they can put a nuclear tip on those missiles, they can deter us from taking military action against them. what they're trying to do is hit the continental united states, much tougher, much more difficult. we believe he's going to test something that's called a kno8, a missile we have seen in parades but not yet tested. will it work the first time? probably not but if you keep working at it, it's likely they'll have the capability to hit los angeles, san francisco or new york. >> how should one take these threats? how serious are they? this guy at one level seems
crazy. at another level seems crazy enough to do something like this. >> i think we have to take him very seriously. i know there is a tendency to ridicule the north korean leadership and to look at what they say and just think of them as meaningless boasts, but as joe said, the level of testing we have seen over the last eight years have been incredible. they have done 65 missile and nuclear tests over the last eight years compared with 17 in the previous 14 years. this is not just boasting. this is a military testing program designed to achieve the objective that joe just described which is a nuclear tipped icbm that can reach the united states. the purpose of that is the hold the united states hostage so that we would not be able to defend our allies and north korea would be at liberty to coerce our allies in the region with all sorts of threats and other sorts of activities. i think we have to take this very seriously.
we do not want to be in situation where the incoming administration will be -- the administration that will be remembered for allowing a country like north korea, the most opaque country to achieve the missile that can hit the united states. >> the conversation president obama had with president-elect trump, there was a part secret and sensitive that even trump alluded to and it was precisely about north korea and my sense is what obama told trump is similar to what victor just said. you think that the obama strategy toward north korea has also failed. >> it has. george w. bush tried to get them not to go nuclear. he failed. they tested in 2006. obama tried to stop them by putting on more sanctions and refusing to talk to them. that failed miserably. they increased their capability. now we're in situation where the
incoming president will likely be tested on this issue in first few months. the u.s. and south korea have major military exercises in february and march coming up. those always wild the north korean s. is that when they might test it? the president is going to be faced with either trying to take a military action to stop them from testing, going with the policy of crippling sanctions which is failed or doing something he said he's willing to do, reach out and negotiate with kim jong-un. >> you think is third is the right thing? >> i think it's the only way to go. one that threatens sanctions, puts on more sungss banctions b reaches out to north korea to try to arrest their program, freeze it where it is. >> what do you think of that? you have to talk to the north koreans, nothing else has
worked. >> we always say sanctions don't work until they work. if they come back to the table, we'll say they worked. until they come back to the table, we'll say they failed. first is we have these two new elements of sanctioning. one are the commitment by the chinese to reduce coal imports from north korea and provide them with a lot of hard currency they could use for their nuclear program and the other is the new treasury financial sanctions. the 311 sanction against the entire jurisdiction against north korea. these two things are at a new level. they just started. we have to allow those to take effect and see if they have any sort of impact. >> joe, before we go i want to you, you pointed something out to me which i didn't think about. the united states right now is on maximum nuclear alert. you say before obama leaves office this should change. explain what and why. >> we have about 1,000 warheads on missiles on high alert status.
it's something we have been doing since the cold war. the cold war is over. this makes the missiles prone to accident, miscalculation, commuted ship going bad could trigger a nuclear warhead. it's time for the united states to stand down these missiles. not take them apart, just take them off high alert and see if vladmir putin can be convinced to do the same thing. that one step could make the world a whole lot safer. >> that might be a deal that appeals to the president-elect. >> could be. >> thank you both very much. up next, donald trump says he will tear apart much of president obama's legacy after his inauguration on friday. we'll take a look at one very important aspect when we come back. trade, what happens if he kills the trade pacts? it was may, whet how to brush his teeth. (woman vo) in march, my husband didn't recognize our grandson. (woman 2 vo) that's when moderate alzheimer's made me a caregiver. (avo) if their alzheimer's is getting worse,
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donald trump had made big plans for day one of his administration but this week he said much would wait until day 4, after the inauguration festivities are over. one of the first priorities will be dealing with two of his least favorite basacroynms, nafta and tpp. he's been critical of the deal saying they would hurt american workers and the economy.
he said they were badly negotiated. my next guest was responsible for negotiating the tpp. michael froman is the trade representative. let me ask you about nafta before we get to the tpp. trump said he will re-negotiate nafta. can you actually do that? how would it work? >> we did that in tpp. we raised intellectual property right standards in canada. we got access to parts of the canadian market we didn't have before. when candidate obama was running he said he would re-negotiate nafta and that's what we did in the context of tpp. >> when he talks about tpp and his opposition to it. you said recently if you get rid of tpp, how will you oppose china? you see it as one of america's
ways of strengthening itself in the pacific as opposed to trump? >> tpp was about embedding the united states as a leader in the asia pacific region. it's an important region for our economy but also strategically. it was a way of raising standards across the region. china is not a member of tpp. they are not a member of tpp. the idea was if you could get china's neighbors to sign up to better labor, opening up their markets, putting disciplines on state owned companies that china would have to compete against that. they would have to raise their standards as well. >> when you look at the politics of this, you look at state like iowa that went for trump 15 points. out of many of these concerns about tpp, agriculture this iowa would hugely benefit from tpp because countries like japan and vietnam would be great markets
for american agriculture. why is it that the people voting against what seems to be their own economic interest? >> there is a disconnect there. as you said the entire agricultural community is in favor of tpp. it has about more than 4 billion dollar to farm incomes. it opens some of these markets that have been closed for years like japan or vietnam and malaysia that have an emerging middle class. the first thing a middle class want s more protein, safer food. there is a disconnect out there that goes to people feeling as though they haven't seen wages increase for the last couple of decades. they have seen rising income inequality. where ever that's coming from whether it's because of technology or globalization, they don't get to vote on technology or globalization. trade agreements become the scapegoat. >> what is the effect of these
border adjustment taxes, the tariff that trump is proposing? what do you think that means for the average american? >> that depends on what they do. i think when it comes to raising tariffs, you have to think about it in three ways. one is retaliation. if we do something that's clearly illegal, that's contrary to our obligations, it gives an open license to other countries to respond then raising tariffs on our exports hurts our american workers and farmers. second is imitation. if we open the door of saying here is a new way of pursuing trade policy, if you have access to our market, you have to build the product in our market, that's the kind of policies we have been fighting around the world. if you want to sell to our people, you need to move your factories from the united states to our country. you have to think through the second and third order. >> general motors want to build something in india, they say you
can build if you only build out of michigan and sell to mumbai. >> since 95% of the world's consumers are outside of the united states, 80% of our purchasing power is outside the united states, we need access to those foreign markets. we can't support the kind of jobs we want in this country if we don't have the ability to export our products around the world. the third piece is taxization. raising tariffs is a regressive maneuver. it has the biggest effect on the lowest income americans. the people who can least afford it. low income americans spend a bigger portion of their income on tradeable goods like clothing, footwear, food. if you start putting tariffs on imports against our obligation -- >> the price of goods go up at walmart and costco. >> all those back to school purchases, all the things you buy for your family go up. just this week the council of economic advisors at the white
house did a study showing how tariffs are punitive to the people in the country who can least afford to bear the cost. >> when you look at this populist fervor in the united states and what it's done to trade. how do you feel? when you look at the numbers you see polls show a bunch of americans say they support trade. >> that's a big disconnect between the perception and reality. americans show they support trade and understand how important it is that we be engaged. it's gone up over the years. it's higher now than any time since the 1970s. as i said, they have felt real pain. those concerns are real. the questions what to do about them. it's not to close our markets. it's not to withdraw from leadership. it isn't to hand the leadership over to china and live under a system of rules that china designs. it goes to issues like lifelong learning and skills development and education and training and
transition assistance. >> that's all boring. what people likely hear is somebody else fault much of foreigners. >> it's much easier to blame a foreigner than to say we need better domestic policies here at home. there's a lot of countries that do this much better than we do whether it's singapore or korea. we don't have to reinvent the wheel. there's a lot of good experience at the state level and foreign countries that we would draw from and have a much greater social compact with the american worker. >> pleasure to have you on. next, new york story museum of modern art is displaying this. why this unsuspecting addition to their galleries might be considered a masterpiece.
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on friday, multitudes will gather on the national mall to witness donald trump's inauguration as the 45th president of the united states. the shortest inaugural address in history was given by george washington in 1793 at just 135 words. it brings me to my question of the week. what president gave the longest inaugural address in history? william henry harrison, roosevelt, calvin coolidge or barack obama? stay tuned and we'll give you the answer. this book of the week is a world in disarray. we talked about the book with richard during the show and as you can tell he has a vivid description of emerging global problems and a punchy critique
of american foreign policy. he's always smart and sober about the foreign policy challenges facing america. now for the last look at the world renowned museum of modern art in new york city. beauty can often be in the eye of the be holder. for one more week sh is highlighting an undeany bli ugly reality. there's 188-square foot structure. it's not worth millions. it's valuable in a different way. this is a fully assembled refugee shelter. it is the centerpiece of an exhibit underlying the harsh living conditions of displaced people around the world. built in sweden, these lightweight solar panel shelters arrive with tools to construct them if the field. i've talked about them on this
show before. a testament to not only innovative design but the ongoing scale of the blow ball refugee crisis. in 2015, 24 people were displaced from their homes every single minute. the world bank estimates refugees spend an average of ten years in exile making temporary shelters like this critically important and not very temporary. picasso said art is a lie that makes us realize the truth. we didn't need art to realize this ugly truth but it helps to remind us of it. the correct answer is a. in 1841 william henry harrison gave a two-hour inaugural address. he did so without the proper attire for the winter and he died a month later of pneumonia. his address was more than 8,400 words. more than both of george w. bush and both barack obama's
inaugural addresses all combined. we do not know the length of president-elect donald trump's address but he know his favorite mode of communication clocks in at 140 characters. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. this is reliable sources. our weekly look at the story behind the story of how the media really works, how the news gets made. this week let's start it differently with some words to live by. really some words to report by. the president should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct. his efficiency or inefficiency in rendering hollywood, able and disinterested service to the nation as a whole. therefore, it's absolutely necessary that there should be full liberty to tell the truth about his acts and this means it's exactly necessary to blame him when he doe