>> yet, the president keeps returning to it. >> don't underestimate it working. >> this is "new day" with alisyn camerota and john berman. >> it has tuesday, october 23rd, 8:00 in the east. i want to show you the big headlines in "the washington post" this morning. trump and republicans settle on fear and falsehoods as a midterm strategy. near, and in some cases lying. so what are they talking about? >> well, the president is focussing on this caravan of thousands of migrants more than 1,000 miles from the border with mexico. the president is insisting that dangerous criminals are embedded among them. >> and, look, that is an assault on our country. that's an assault. and in that caravan, you have some very bad people. you have some very bad people. and we can't let that happen to

our country. >> all right. he's offered no evidence for that claim, but of course it is designed to scare us. and the president is not stopping there. he claims to know specifically what kind of dangerous people are traveling with the migrants. >> you are going to find ms-13. you are going to find middle eastern. you are going to find everything. guess what? we're not allowing them in our country. >> but the damage is done. there are no facts to back that claim. let's talk about what this strategy is. we want to bring in our stellar panel. we have ian brener, joe lockhart and gloria borger. why is the president resorting to making up false claims? why can't he run on his accomplishments? i thought the economy was doing so well. >> the economy is doing well,

and he has run on that accomplishment. but that was true when he ran for president, going after mexicans coming to rape and criminalize in the u.s. that was a line he talked about a lot. it worked with his base. he's going back to it again. why is he bringing up transgender again as an issue? if the mainstream press talks about it, it is probably going to help him with his base. i understand the politics behind it. it is a nasty business, but i suspect this is a good way for him to run into the midterm. >> i speak to republicans who have never felt better about their chances in these midterms. it is simply working. >> yeah. i'm old enough to remember 2016, and this is 2016 all over again. and republicans are feeling good because if you start with brett kavanaugh and then you, you know, something switched after brett kavanaugh, and the president is now on the campaign

trail, rallying up the base, getting them up to vote and you see in the poll numbers that suddenly republican voters are almost as energized as democrats. not quite, but almost as energized as democrats. where, before this fear mongering, before this, they were not. they were like, okay, i'm going to sit at home. what trump is doing is getting them out to vote by telling them if you don't, you should be very, very scared. >> maybe i'm not old enough to remember 2016, joe, because i think things have gotten more brazen and more intense. i vaguely remember 2016. i think in the past week, the succession, the rapid fire, lies made up, they seem more unhinged than even in 2016. >> i mean, they are. and i think they are more serious because in 2016 he was a candidate. he's now the president of the united states. the so-called leader of the free world. i think that all of this ratcheted up the importance of

this election. we have a question for our country now, doestruth atter? it may not. but that's a huge step towards an authoritarian government. i think it's a big question for the media. i mean, i understand the wrestling with it. but the truth doesn't catch up to the lie. >> but what do you want us to do? >> i don't have the answer. i'm just saying it is a test. and if republicans sweep to victory, then i think there will have to be some examination. >> and we fact check every morning here. but i'm not sure his base is watching us every morning. >> and people hear what they want to hear. that's why it is so important. >> are we a country that's afraid? are we driven by fear and anxie anxiety, or are we a country that's proud and confidence? >> i think the fact checking can be over done. there is a difference. for example, everybody knows that saudi arabia, if you are

exaggerating? yes. i don't think anyone really takes him serious, literally. on the other hand, if he's directionally incorrect and he's making something up that is politically dangerous, for example, that strikes me as something that's worth coverage. that would be one rule of thumb. but it's really hard because he's ripping up the play book. he's doing things that make it harder for traditional media to cover him as a candidate. more now as the president. >> what he does is he provides bright, shine in objects for the media to go after. whether it's the tax cut. and you say, wait a minute. you have ten days. we haven't seen a proposal. this is ludicrous. then you have the chairman of the house ways and means committee going, oh, yeah, we're kind of interested in it. we've got a plan. but nobody is there. nobody is home in the congress. and he throws these things out

there as red meat, and he knows full well this isn't going to happen. but he's not talking to us. he's talking to other people. and he -- because he knows we're going to fact check it, and he knows we're going to run after him. and he wants to create, and he's been very successful at it, this kind of wall. i hate to use the term of wall between the media and the country. and, so, we have become the bad guys because we are saying, no, no, no, no, that can't happen. >> you end up sounding anti-trump when in fact we are supposed to be watchdogs of government. >> but then it becomes all negative. it becomes all negative because we keep saying this is not true, and that is not true, and that is not true. when you do that enough, it resounds us. obviously, you hate to see this happening because the press is important and the presidency is important. >> look, you know, this is the

b-3 bomber. i'm sure you remember, jill. there is no b-3 bomber. then why are you asking about it? it's not the truth that matters. it is the show here that matters. you said we'll find out. i'm not so sure you are going to like the answer. >> i'm not so sure i will either. that's why i think it is so important. i think going back to the polling question. i'll play the role of partisan here. i think all of this stuff about a republican surge is the best thing that could happen to the democrats because i think there was a sense creeping in that, oh, we've got this. we've got this. for those of us that are old enough to remember 2016, we know that feeling, we've got this, and people stay home. trump, we're sort of glorifying him a little bit politically for how clever he is. there was one poll out this week that had him around 47%. he is not performing well.

and for every, i believe, that for every person that he turns out, he may turn out 1.2 people to vote against him, but we'll find out. >> every trend is pointing up. all the polls have his approve ratings -- >> yeah, and, you know, there is the old dead cat bounce. there was no place to go but down. he is historically at the bottom. >> why is he doing it? one reason he's leaning into these issues is because they are concerned, the republicans. but at the same time, trump continues to throw these lines out that, if i lose, it is not me. it is not on me. it's on the others. it is hard to balance both of those things because, clearly, if the republicans do take a big hit, trump is not going to own a part of it. it is tricky for the republicans to do well as a forty, a unified force underneath trump. >> just a second on the numbers

and whether or not he's directionally correct. i want to play the evolution because it shows in the space of like 72 hours on the saudi jobs numbers of what the president is trying to pass off to voters as the truth. so listen to this. >> we're talking about over 40,000 jobs. >> it is 450,000 i don't knojob >> it's 500,000 jobs. >> talking about over a million jobs. >> the first one he had a piece of cardboard. >> did he not say full-time jobs? could be 500,000 part-time jobs. >> maybe they are actually saudi jobs. >> there is only 330,000 jobs in the defense agency in the country total. so he's just making it up. >> you're like, well, people have gotten used to him, not taking him seriously.

i wonder about the truth issue. does that have any effect on the voters, the fact they can't trust whatever number the president is saying this week? >> for the people that don't like trump it does. for the people that do, he's made up -- he was directional correct about being a billionaire, but he said -- >> he wasn't directionally correct. >> how well he was -- he testified to this on how he was feeling on a given day. i don't think that anyone that thinks about trump actually thinks what we're really about is whether he gets numbers right. that's not what reality tv, bankruptcies and casinos. but the level of truth in advertising, there is an advertising concept to everything trump does. all i'm saying is that i think that when you're going after in the morning the fact checks, i think fact checks that are focussing on, i got you on this number, i got you on this number is, as gloria suggested, probably not one you are going to obviously win.

but when it is like this is a totally made-up policy or you have people saying something different, then that's probably more interesting. >> there is a term called puffing in real estate, which is that realtors -- people say, oh, yeah, we have this apartment building full. except there is nobody in it. the trump family, and how they sold their apartments, by puffing, by saying, you know, we got princess diana is coming into trump tower or we've got this one sold or that one sold. it's 100%, and it wasn't. donald trump, the real estate guy in him is like, yeah, it's going to cost a million jobs. this is what he does. this is what he's done his whole life. >> so this is going to drive you crazy, joe. because what gloria is saying is that he's being graded on a curve because he is a real

estate guy. by supporters and by the media. >> to some extent. >> yeah. so is there any way you could fight that? if there is no repercussion, if he is not held to the same standard as other politicians, how do you battle that? >> you could have them vote. again, i come back to any democrat out there, any independent, anyone who thinks we should expect more out of a president than being a real estate puffer, that we should expect that you should tell the truth and that all of this stuff matters, well, you have a chance to vote and to make a difference. otherwise, we are heading down a very serious path of changing the way our government works. >> i just want to say that i think the reason that trump won is not so much because he was puffing or because he wasn't but because those that had the facts on their side were seen as illegitimate. right? in the brexit referendum, all the facts were on the fact that this was going to be bad for the

u.k., right? and they brought out the scientists and the professors and all the people with very good powerpoint. they had all the facts. yet, the people said, you and your fancy facts and education, i know you are not going to make things better for me. so there is a higher truth here. i think trump is appealing to that, a lot of people that feel like for all of the facts of the mainstream media and of the establishment, their lives haven't gotten better. until you credibly have some people or presidential candidates that are able to fight that, that try and just get trump on the facts is going to have the same outcome that the brexit referendum did in the u.k. >> why are you talking about middle-class tax cuts now? >> because it feels good. >> and it is an admission that the first tax cut wasn't for them. >> if you listen to republicans, they're saying, i wish you were out there talking about the tax

cut that we passed and talking about how it is affecting the economy. >> that it is not working for some. >> but he would say, he would argue, it is working for the economy, the gpd is great. >> then you should talk about it. >> but he isn't. i was with him last week in montana. instead, the congressman was on the stage with him and he talked about how great it was that he had body slammed a journalist because he knew his audience was right there. so he's in texas and he's talking about the caravan and immigration. he knows his audience. he's very good at understanding the people that he's got to get out to. >> that's a great tease. we will have you back later in the show to talk about monotan th a and your time there. that was great. thank you. >> maybe tomorrow. >> yeah. president trump, we have been listening to how he's dealing with the facts, dealing

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keep them out. joining me is a senator from maryland. senator, thank you very much for being with us. the president has made this a political issue, the thousands of people in mexico part of this so-called caravan. what's the democratic policy on this? what do you want to see happen with these thousands of people? >> well, john, first of all, it is going to be with you. america's strength is in our values. we have listbeen a leader stand up for people at risk. if they qualify for asylum, we believe there should be a process by which that case could be heard in a fair manner, protecting the individuals. we have invested a great deal in central america to try to improve the living conditions and the safety of the people in that region. i have been there. i know how gang violence can disrupt the family safety and the economic opportunities are limited. it is in our interest to invest

in stabilizing central america. we shouldn't be threatening to cutoff the funds. but the people that are in this caravan, many are in desperate situations. the united states should be out there to try to help. it doesn't necessarily mean that they can come and live in america, but we certainly should not be losing the language the president is in regards to the caravan. >> one of his supporters who worked on his campaign said one party wants to let him in and one party wants to keep him out, the republicans. is he right? >> no. we've had bipartisan support to give us a more orderly way for people coming to america that would give hope for those already in our country living in the shadows, including the dreamers and those on tps status. that's been bipartisan. we think we should have a rational immigration policy and our current system isn't working well. but when people are desperate, they should be a receptive audience from the united states to deal with their needs.

that doesn't necessarily mean they can come live in america, but it does mean we have a process to deal with people at risk. >> "the new york times" saying the president is trying to scare voters two weeks before the election. are you worried it's working? >> well, you know, president trump clearly appeals to some of the worst fears in america. some of the worst behaviors. so, yes, i am concerned that it does get a group of people with nationalist sentiments, which is really not what america stands for. the president is not telling the truth when he talks about the people that are in the caravan. he has misrepresented the immigrant community here in america as far as their violations of laws. so he has made a case by misstating the facts in order to get americans to believe in a nationalist strategy rather than be more universal in dealing with the humanitarian needs.

>> so you just called the president a nationalist. do you know who else called him a nationalist? donald j. trump. >> he did himself. >> that's right. so what's wrong with that? >> there is nothing wrong for rooting for america. i root for america. i believe in our country. but the question is do you believe america is of a certain pipe of person-- the diversity issues are a part of our strength. most americans have come to this country as immigrants. we are a diverse nation. when the president refers to nationali nationalism, an anti-immigrant, an anti-majority view that this nation is of a certain demographic rather than being the diverse nation we are. >> you are suggesting there is some kind of dog whistle there?

>> it is. it does provoke hate activities. it does provoke discrimination. we have seen a rise in crimes in america based upon race, based upon religion. all that is provoked by the language we use when we say america needs to be of a certain demographic. >> the president's approval rating is on the rise unver s universally in almost every poll. what is the argument you think democrats should make in the next two weeks? >> well, we'll find out in two weeks. no, i think americans recognize that it's important to have an independent congress that acts as a check and balance with the president. they recognize the midterms as an opportunity to provide that

check and abalance to our syste. i'm confident that the blue wave will bring a change to congress. >> how do you explain the rise in the president's approval rating? >> well, you know, the president's approval ratings have consistently been below 50%. he was elected without the popular vote of this country. i think the president's views, the way he operates most americans disagree with. i can tell yous as i go around this country, i have seen an energy level to do something about the way he acts. >> senator, thanks so much for being with us. two weeks to go. appreciate it, sir. >> zero in on one state because it is more than a senate seat at stake. for president trump it is personal. we'll tell you about it next.

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president trump has made three trips to montana since july. the senate race there seems to have become personal for him because the president blames the incumbent there for derailing his pick to head the v.a. gloria borger explains. >> reporter: donald trump was on the hunt. >> john led the democrat mob with the effort to destroy the reputation of a great man, admiral ronny jackson. >> reporter: he opposed the president's favorite, the white house doctor to run the veteran's administration. >> this doctor has a problem because he hands out prescriptions like candy. in the white house, they call him the candy man. >> reporter: jackson withdrew

and trump has tightly embraced his opponent. and rosendale hugs him back. >> i will stand in strong support of president trump because the work he is doing really is making america great again. >> reporter: the race is up for grabs because montana prides themselves on their voting independence. a lifelong republican supports trump. >> if the election were here today, i'd vote for him. >> reporter: he also supports tester. >> john was working for veterans before he was sworn in. >> reporter: do you think there is a lot of people that will split their tickets. >> i do. montana has a history of splitting their districts. >> reporter: donald trump won the state of montana by 20 points. so tester walks a fine line.

care fuful not to take on the president directly and how many of his bills the president has signed. >> reporter: he's been here three times. his son has been here. he tweeted about you. is he doing pay back here? what do you think this is all about? >> what i think it's about is him loving montana. >> tester is montana board and bre bred who works the land on the weekends. rosendale moved to montana in 2002, became a state senator and is now the state auditor. but test eer says rosendale is t montana enough. >> he came to the state and brought a ranch. claims to be a rancher but has no cows. >> he was elected in his district as a montana leglator. that proves he's got to be

montanan. >> reporter: but not on the issue, tester says. not on veteran benefits, to name a few. >> if he runs on his record, he's going to get clobbered. >> reporter: rosenstale dale is claiming he's a liberal. >> we need to send president trump some conservative reinforcements. >> reporter: unlike trump, who lately is a chatty media seeking missile, rosendale drives away from his own trump rally, right past reporters and into the right. the candidates go to the same barber. >> they do. >> and number two -- >> don't touch the moneymaker. >> number two, if there is any race the president deserves credit for if it goes the republican way is this one because he single handedly

fought this one. >> not to mention the fact that john jr., who is an avid hunter loves to go to montana. he's been there numerous times. and tester is terpersonality qu popular, but he's never won by more than a handful of points. we did run into a lot of people who were trump supporters and tester supporters. >> you are a reporter of many talents. you spoke to ty cobb yesterday, who says that the mueller investigation is not a witch hunt. but he even went further than that. listen to what the president's former lawyer says about bob mueller. >> he calls it a witch hunt. do you think it is a witch hunt. >> i don't think it is a witch hunt. bob mueller is, you know, an american hero, in my view. he carried -- while he was

injured carries one of his fellow soldiers out of harm's way in vietnam. he was a serious prosecutor. we met with the mid-'80s. we were prosecuting in different places, and i have respected him throughout. >> mueller's an american hero. that's different from what you hear from the president. >> i think when ty cobb was at the white house and is no longer there, there is a mutual respect between the team of mueller and ty cobb, who had pre-existing relations. and they knew each other -- relationship. they knew each other well as attorneys, as prosecutors. and, so, i think all of that has sort of gone out the window now. and what you see and you saw ty cobb say i don't think it was a witch hunt. he kept the president from tweeting all the time. and then ty leaves and, boom, it is an onslaught of tweets about

bob mueller. >> fascinating on every level. thank you very much. >> it is a national holiday to have gloria here with us. >> there you are. doctors are dealing with new possible cases of a polio like illness that's leaving kids paralyzed. >> what makes it worse is not knowing what caused it. >> what we know about this rare condition. that's next. did you ever notice that the very first bite of every great meal is always the potato? that's why it should always be an idaho potato.

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for more information on how to be prepared and keep your family safe, visit pge.com/safety. we have some breaking news. the dow is down sharply. christine romans joins us with what she's seeing. >> when you look at the futures market, it looks pretty soft. it looks like the dow down maybe about 400 points. this is off the worst of its lec levels. the companies reported their earnings. what they're saying about the future is not as rosy as wall street analysts had expected. 3m in particular cutting its earnings outlook.

things are great for fortune 500 companies. when you look at the housing, the autos, you are starting to see some weakness in the future. trade concerns, international concerns, rising costs. i can show you world markets is where this began before these american earnings reporting came out. again, that was trade concerns and also saudi arabia. the more you have saudi arabia and the middle east in the headlines, the more nervous investors get because of the risk for some things to run amok there. you can see where we are for the month so far for october. it's been pretty ugly. turns out stocks don't just go up, folks. the dow even before these losses i'm telling you right now down 4.5%, the nasdaq down 7%. over the past couple of weeks, we have seen up and down within the day that have been pretty volatile. watch this, guys.

>> it looks like a tough opening today. i'm sure you will be back at 50 minutes to tell us what's going on there. troubling health alert this morning. 155 patients are being looked at for a polio-like illness that can cause paralysis in children. the number of possible patients is up from 127 a week ago. though, no new confirmed cases have been reported. cnn joins us now with the very latest. elizabeth. >> reporter: john, it's called ak acute myolitis. children paralyzed overnight. abigail was a healthy, active two-year-old. then suddenly paralyzed from the neck down, a ventilator breathing for her. >> she had a double ear infection and a really high fever of 103. then a few days went by and she

woke up and her arm was completely paralyzed, randomly. the night before he was us she it before. >> reporter: the diagnosis, asm. it is very similar to a disease from long ago, polio. like polio, asm is thought to be caused by a virus, but no one knows what virus and why it affects different children differently. >> oh, such a good job! get those stickers. >> reporter: for example, abigail's siblings were sick at the same time she was, but they were never paralyzed. the cdc reports 62 confirmed cases in 22 states. in 2014 there were 120 confirmed cases. in 2016, 149 cases. >> just a little bit to make it easier for you to balance, okay?

>> it is really heart-breaking. no parent should ever have to experience that. what makes it worse, it is not the tubes. it is not the treatments. what makes it worse is not knowing what caused it. >> princess snow white needs to be picked up. >> reporter: it is hard to know how abigail will do in the future, if she'll ever be able to walk again on her own. and notice that she still doesn't use her left arm and her right arm is weak. >> reach for it. thank you. >> we don't know a lot about the long-term prognosis right now. that's something we're still learning about. >> reporter: abigail's parents are grateful their child is making progress. >> yeah! good job! >> reporter: against this horrific and mysterious illness. well, abigail had made great process against asm, that's not

true for all children. some are still in wheelchairs, a ventilator breathing for them. john? >> thanks very much. now to this story in wisconsin. a search is underway for two cars spotted near the home of that missing teenagers. investigators are trying to track down a 2008 to 2014 red or orange dodge challenger and a 2004 to 2010 black acura. they were spotted near the home around the time that her parents were shot dead in their home and the 13-year-old vanished. police believe she is in danger. if you have any information, call 911. the bottom line is next. ou e psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis, little things can be a big deal. that's why there's otezla.

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claims now a key part of president trump's mid steterm strategy. david, i think something has shifted, okay? and you could shoot me down if you want. but this adherence to outlandish claims in rapid fire succession made out of not a germ of truth. there will be a tax plan before the midterms, all of the caravan are criminals, i think that something has shifted, and you tell me. have the republicans always been a party based on emotion and feelings? because that's what is happening now. this strategy is about feelings over facts. >> yeah. i would not say that this is the republican party strategy. this is the republican party in the image of donald trump. i mean, that is what we have been seeing take place over the last year and a half. we saw through the entire primary system is every republican candidate was running to be the most trump ypolicy.

you have the president with these outlandish claims. just because they're not true doesn't mean they're not energizing the base. >> look, newt gingrich told me this during the republican national convention. he said he'll take feelings over facts any day, that that's what works. have the republicans always been known as feelings over facts, or is something new dawning? >> it is an emotional experience to vote. and, so, that i think has always been a truism in american politics. i just think you see donald trump saying i'm not going to campaign on feelings that are based in facts. i'm just going to campaign on feelings. damn the facts. >> it doesn't have to be one or the other year. he's trying to use both. i think the answer is when he's not using facts or he's saying thing are flat-out not true, it may not have any repercussions.

in fact, the opposite. if you ask strategists of both parties where it is headed, at least where there is trending, the republicans have had a better few weeks. >> right. i will say in talking to both democrats and republicans, i think the overall consensus still think this day, two weeks out, it is probably more likely than not that the democrats flip the house. but i will tell you this. on this day, i have never heard both parties so convinced about the possibility that republicans could maintain control of the house. that is more true today, according to these strategists, than in any day in this cycle. >> what is that based on? >> well, i think it is the president's approval numbers have gone up and the economy, which is doing quite well and people are giving the republicans, voters of course, big advantage on the economy. and with the economy top of mind for voters in many places and it

doing well and the president benefitting from that, that all equals republicans getting more enthusia enthusiastic. >> so we had a new cnn political analyst on. she said something that is interesting. she said, well, what we don't know is how many new voters, how many new people will come to the polls. and these new voters may drive a democratic surge. well, the thing about new voters is we have never seen them before. sometimes they don't actually come. >> well, we saw them in barack obama's election in 2008. we saw some of them in 2006 when the democrats won. but those were big, huge democratic years. and that is true. you can see -- take a couple examples. the florida governor's race or stacy abrams in georgia. they are committed to trying to reship the electorate. all signs indicate that there is

massive enthusiasm and interest in this election beyond what a normal midterm is. this will look between a midterm and a presidential, not a normal midterm. that may bode well for democrats if they are changing the makeup of the electorate with that increased turnout. >> she was giving us a statistics about how early voting started and already the spike is astronomical. >> i'm always cautious. yes, they are seeing greater numbers of early voting on the first day of early voting. it is part of a long-term trend in american politics. more and more people are voting early in elections. >> early voting numbers often are a sugar high. but you have to remember that if you vote early, you don't vote on election day. so it is unclear whether or not -- >> it doesn't always translate to huge voter turnout numbers. >> exactly.

they're barngi ibanking those e. yesterday, we had this conference here. rahm emanuel said something interesting. if you look at all the other big wave elections, '94, 2006, 2010 for either party, it happened during a recession. that's not the case right now. we've got to watch the economy here, because that does indeed impact elections. >> thank you very much. the good stuff is next. it's time to get out of line with upmc. at upmc, living-donor transplants put you first. so you don't die waiting. upmc does more living-donor liver transplants than any other center in the nation. find out more and get out of line today. our big idaho potato truck and we're going to find it.

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says he wished he could have saved. here he is placing flowers and balloons at the four crosses that stand outside the waffle house. the balloons spelling love. >> because there still are four individuals that didn't go home at night. and we want to remember them. >> he also created a foundation honoring the victims to raise awareness and take actions against mass shootings. >> pray for their families and i just don't want to see this happen again. >> oh, my gosh. what a hero on every level. not just springing into action but now still trying to help going forward. >> he's not letting go of the moment and he's not letting go of the bigger meaning beyond just him and beyond what just happened there. >> that's a great story. the turkish president says he has strong leads on jamal khashoggi's murder. more coverage after this quick break.

good morning to you. i'm jim sciutto in washington. this morning turkey's president rejecting the saudi claim that jamal khashoggi's death was an accident. the president calling it a pre-planned, quote, ferocious murder. in an interview months before his death, khashoggi said the u.s. was not doing enough to reign in the crown prince. have a listen to these words. >> there is no political movement in saudi arabia that could pressure him. and the world is happy with him. do you see anybody in america? i'm sure americans are not going to apply any pressure to mbs. >> or in america, similar to