about 1 in 302 million. about the population of the u.s. if you happen to be the one with the lucky numbers, the estimated cash payout, nearly $905 million. good luck. thanks so much for joining me today. i'm jim sciutto. "at this hour" with kate bolduan starts right now. hello, everyone. i'm kate bolduan. new developments this morning in what the world knows about the death of "washington post" columnist jamal khashoggi. and new reporting on what president trump thinks about the story saudi arabia is trying to tell. a story that still doesn't add up. where the saudis say it was a rogue operation, turkey's president today called it a premeditated and ferocious murder. now, what about the president? cnn's kaitlan collins is at the white house with that. what are you hearing this morning? >> we're told president trump is growing increasingly frustrated with the fallout related to jamal khashoggi's death. he's been complaining in recent

days about the blanket coverage that's been on cable television, the negative coverage he feels is portraying him badly and complaining that the saudis have put him in this position. he's been telling people, kate, that he feels he's done so much for them. he feels betrayed by them because of this. after he made riyadh his first destination as his first foreign trip as president, he's got this big arms deal he's been talking about that he doesn't want to be affected by all this, but he's not buying the saudis' account, more and more each day, because he's being told by advisers that what they're saying happened to jamal khashoggi when he walked into the saudi consulate three weeks ago and never walked out just doesn't add up. we're seeing president trump become increasingly frustrated by this, increasingly skeptical of their stories as we saw him say on the south lawn yesterday. and kate, one more thing. he doesn't like that he and jared kushner are being portrayed as being overly cozy with the saudis, with the crown prince, with the king. and that is something he's been complaining about as well. but kate, here's the twist.

aides have been telling the president this isn't a big deal, this isn't going to be an issue that resonates with his base, and they're confident it's not going to affect republicans, their chances when voters go to the polls in just two weeks from now for the midterm elections. and instead, they're telling the president to focus on this issue of the caravan of migrants that are heading for the u.s. southern border. that is something they think is a winning issue for them politically. they think it can help them in the midterms, and they're telling the president and advising him to focus on that and not as much on jamal khashoggi and the fallout that is coming from that. they're saying you're seeing this play out on your television, but it's not resonating with your voters across the nation. and that's likely why, kate, we have seen the president, the number of rallies he's been doing, he's not been mentioning jamal khashoggi as well. instead, he's been focusing on this caravan instead. >> aren't these two -- they're not mutually exclusive. the president can hold saudi arabia accountable, right, for what is looking more and more

likely murdering a journalist at the consulate, and also still care about the concern of illegal immigration at the border. >> that's right, and that's what critics are going to say. he's the president, he should still say something about this. just because it's not going to be something that can potentially hurt republicans in the midterms. what critics are likely going to respond to the new reporting is that the president should still be frustrated by this anyway, he should still be upset by it anyway. he's sent the cia director gina haspel to turkey, there right now reviewing their evidence, and vice president mike pence said this isn't going to go without an american response during that interview at "the washington post" just now. but what we're seeing is aides are trying to convince the president that just because you're seeing this on tv constantly doesn't mean it's something that is affecting americans across the nation. that's their view. >> in the end, no matter how frustrated he is with any coverage of it, what the response is coming from the white house is really the end game here and what really matters. thanks. i really appreciate it. >> so we're are, as caitlyn is

talking about the focus on campaigning, we're two weeks from the election, and we're in a fact-free zone. president trump campaigning like it's 2016 all over again, where fear is driving his political message and the truth goes by the wayside. case in point, the migrant caravan in southern mexico. still more than 1,000 miles for umthe u.s. border, but you wouldn't get that sense by listening to the president right now. >> in that caravan, you have some very bad people. you have some very bad people. and we can't let that happen to our country. >> you're going to find ms-13. you're going to find middle easterners. you're going to find everything. and guess what, we're not all allowing them in our country. >> proof of that, though, none so far, but vice president mike pence backed up the president moments ago. >> inconceivable that there are not people of middle eastern descent in a crowd of more than

7,000 people advancing toward our border. >> officials with the homeland security tell me they have arrested criminals and immigrants from middle eastern countries before coming over the border, but the data i have seen and anyone has seen to this point has nothing to do with this caravan this time. that's why everyone keeps asking these questions of the administration. where are they seeing this? where is the proof? bill weir has been traveling with the caravan on its slow, dangerous journey north. he joined me from southern mexico near the border of guatemala. president trump said to bring your cameras to the caravan and find out what's going on. so bill, what have you found? what are people telling you? >> well, we can walk through here. we're in huixtla where people are going to spend the day actually honoring one of their caravan members who fell off a truck and perished yesterday. a bit of respect there. but we have been playing spot the middle easterner for a couple days now, and have yet to

turn up any. you know, these are folks from mostly honduras, fleeing both political and criminal violence there. and now, as they gain strength, a lot of folks, you know, from guatemala and now in mexico are seeing this as an opportunity to follow a dream north. so there's strength in numbers, they say. but yeah, we all know the dog whistle implied in the middle easterner line. and you know, not to argue with vice president mike pence, he may believe what he says, but what seems inconceivable is some terrorist would fly to the very southern tip of mexico and then walk for a couple months through the searing heat when they can just fly to the united states the way the 9/11 hijackers did. so you know, i think politics, this fearmongering, sort of fomenting the terror of the stranger is as old as politics itself, kate. >> and part of that is the

immediacy of a crisis, we're two weeks from an election, and dhs says their estimation in looking back at past data and how other caravans have gone, it could be four weeks before the caravan makes it to the border. can you put it in perspective how far away you all are? >> right, so just to give you perspective, they hit the bridge on friday. and then there was the big standoff there. we're now 50 miles inside of the mexican border. and the closest border point, entry point, would be brownsville, texas. watch yourself, there's a line there. but the further would be tijuana, california. tijuana, mexico, on the california border. that's like 2,000, more than 2,000 miles. and the caravan, we guess, will probably hit mexico city and then start to disperse. some people want to go to california. some people want to go to arizona. some people want to go to texas. the majority will present

themselves at an immigration center and apply for asylum as refugees. they have to pass the interview test, which is a credible fear question. are you really running from somebody? did your husband really get murdered? and those who are economic migrants will be processed. many will be sent back all the way home. and then they have to decide whether to try again. but this has been going on for generations, kate. in the '60s and '70s, research shows that 80% of this kind of migration was seasonal and circular. people typically, you would, we all would as human beings, if you want to make a little money to improve your lot in life, you then want to go home. when the ins hardened the border in the '80s, the unintended consequence is people got stuck inside and couldn't come and go the way they would there as well. but again, if the minimum wage in canada was $100 an hour, how many of us would be swimming across the river from, you know,

detroit to windsor, and that's the argument i'm hearing now. i have pointed out, you're breaking the law, and this looks scary. it looks like anarchy. but many, you know, they don't have the luxury of weighing american politics into a decision when it's like they're running from a burning building. kate. >> and also, you pointed out perfectly, problems with immigration law and how the border is handled left and right from capitol hill, democrat, republican, they agree that immigration law needs to be reformed, but that required bipartisanship and compromise, and there's no way in any figment of anyone's imagination that's happening now, and that's why we're seeing what we're seeing. >> absolutely. when people talk about a guest worker program, they're describing the way it used to be. let them come, pick a crop of lettuce, and let them come home. you don't let them vote, don't let them collect welfare, don't let their kids into school. that's the argument over that, but this is the result of a broken immigration system.

i think both parties can agree on that. >> thank you, bill. i really appreciate it. >> joining me right now is former republican congressman david jolly. so you have -- you have the president -- you have what we're talking about, the caravan, and you have fact challenged assertions coming from the president when it comes to the caravan. you also have fact-challenged assertions when it comes to the what the president is talking about on a lot of other issues right now when it comes to things he cares about talking about in the last two weeks of the campaign, including a new tax plan he's talking about. let me play you what the president is saying about this. >> we're going to be putting in a 10% tax cut for middle-income families. it's going to be put in next year. we're putting in next week the 10% reduction in middle-income taxes. right? next week. okay. >> when it comes to a tax plan, the facts are really simple on this one. congress is out.

no lawmaker, republican or democrat, at this moment knows what this plan is. so what do you call this at this point? a misleading campaign promise or a figment of his imagination? >> you call it a lie. this is the president of the united states lying not just to his supporters but to the american people. recognizing that the tax plan has not given them the political boost going into november that they needed. it's also why he's now focused on the caravan, because he knows the currency he can sell with fear. listen, when he talks about people who might have untoward intentions in the crowd, and he focuses in on that, that necessarily suggests we wouldn't have a vetting process to get through the backgrounds of some of these people. we know that's not the case. we have a vetting process. he's ramping up a cycle of fear like we saw a term or two ago when the issue was syria and refugees and republicans suggested there's no way syrian refugees could be safe. the facts don't support the republican position on this, nor does the moral question. this is one of the great moral questions of our time.

what do we do with those who are trying to immigrate here, to migrate here for their own safety and security? jeb bush four years ago said it was an act of love to try to bring your family to economic freedom and prosperity, and the republican party rejected jeb bush's approach and instead embraced the fear donald trump sold. that's the reality of today's gop. >> congressman, on both of these fronts, as you lay out, it matters factually that we lay these things out. does it matter, though, politically? there's the disconnect. >> no, because you have a leader who has chosen to sell a false set of facts, to evoke fear. the contrast -- listen, i was not an obama supporter. as a republican member of congress, i tried to work with him, but the contrast between barack obama deciding politically to sell hope and with president trump selling fear, each are very powerful. and at some point, we get to judge the integrity of our leaders who decide which currency they want to inject upon the american people. >> everyone says you don't get out to vote to say thank you.

you get out to vote because you're angry. it's like a demoralizing, depressing thought to have, though, even though it rings true still. here is another -- let's talk about challenged facts. this one drives me bananas because we have been fact checking it since the inauguration. the president returning to the oldie but the goody about voter fraud. listen to this. >> they want to demand to vote. they want to be able to vote. they want to be able to vote. oh, don't worry about it. they want to be able to vote. the illegals. by the way, i hate to tell you, you go to california, they vote anyway. they vote anyway. they're not supposed to. and every time i say it, the fake news says, oh, they said -- i got so many people voting illegally in this country, it's a disgrace. okay, it's a disgrace. voter i.d., folks. voter i.d. >> he constantly warned of rampant voter fraud in 2016. he claimed 3 to 5 million

illegal votes happened in 2016, that's why he lost the popular vote. he even put together a commission after the election to find voter fraud. the vice president co-chaired that. that disbanded. they found zero, zilch. nothing, nada. rampant voter fraud -- it is -- >> it doesn't exist. >> it doesn't exist. it doesn't exist. if it did, we would all be screaming from the rooftops about it because no one wants voter fraud. it's the craziest thing to think everyone wants voter fraud. why is this part of an election strategy? i guess i have answered my own question, because he thinks it worked in 2016. >> voting should be as easy and accessible as it can be secure. in today's environment, we can open up voting and make it easier, but republicans have chosen to make it harder. the notion of voter suppression to protect a majority that republicans hold because the voting demographics are getting away from the republican party today. it is hard, though, not to overlook the fact that voter suppression disproportionately targets people of color.

the president knows that. when the president talks about everything from the caravan to voter suppression, he's trying to evoke very dark elements within the republican party that as children we are taught to learn ourselves away from. and you cannot overlook the fact that we are also talking about voter suppression targeting, of course, democratic, largely democratic voters, but people of color. >> let me play you one more thing from a different person, senator jeff flake. he talked kind of about all this yesterday during the citizen by cnn conference. in addition to the chanlts of lock her up and mocking christine blasey ford, the thing that the president says that whips the crowd up. here's what he said about it. >> to me now, it's just gone so far beyond. you're not expecting the president to pivot any more. but what is troubling is to look behind him and see the reaction of people to what he says. and that's what's more troubling to me now, is who believes this.

and he does it, i think, because it still works. it still riles people up. it divides us horribly. >> because the still works, because it still riles people up. if it still works, how do you make it not work? >> you need voices to speak in opposition, and voices of leadership to speak in opposition. what i would add to what senator flake said is the fact that republican leaders all fell in line. we lost voices of principle within the republican party. kate, i recently left the republican party, and it was based on a number of realizations, but one of those realizations was as somebody who has been labeled a never trumper myself, i don't believe now any longer you can be never trump and be republican. because what has happened is what trump brought to the party has been so embraced that this is a republican party issue now. it's no longer just a donald trump issue. it is a republican party issue because mitch mcconnell and paul

ryan and mike pence and every single leader who we used to think brought certain principles to the party resigned those principles over at the alter of donald trump. >> we'll continue this conversation. how about that? we'll try to do that. thank you so much for coming in. coming up for us, turkey's president promised to reveal the naked truth on what happened to jamal khashoggi, but did he deliver? plus, have you ever grabbed someone by the collar, shoved him toward a wall at work? no? sounds slightly unusual, maybe? maybe not so much at the white house. ask chief of staff john kelly. details on the fight that boiled over and why. that's ahead. valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last. ♪ cal: ellen, our certified financial planner™ professional, helps us manage our cash flow and plan for the unexpected. valerie: her experience and training gave us the courage to go for it. it's our "confident forever plan"... cal: ...and it's all possible with a cfp® professional.

find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org.

your insurance rates skyrocket you could fix it with a pen. how about using that pen to sign up for new insurance instead? for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise their rates because of their first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty mutual insurance.

♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

the president of turkey promised the naked truth on what

happened to jamal khashoggi. president erdogan speaking out, disputing saudi arabia's claim the journalist was killed accidentally in a fist fight. he called it instead a furoeschish murder. joining me now is clarissa ward. did erdogan lay out the evidence that turkey has collected? >> well, i think he laid out, kate, a couple key points that we hadn't yet heard. but he certainly didn't present a full picture, and in fact, he even issued a list of sort of demanding questions to saudi authorities. let's start with what he revealed. he revealed a couple interesting things. number one, according to president erdogan, a team from the saudi consulate went to the belgrade forest on the outskirts of istanbul on the day before jamal khashoggi was murdered in some kind of reconnaissance mission. this is interesting because we know those forests have been an area of interest for turkish investigators, not clear exactly

what this consulate team was doing there. what the reconnaissance mission entailed exactly, but certainly an interesting development. number two, according to the president, he said that the saudi consulate behind me had disconnected their surveillance cameras from the hard drive. that is interesting because it speaks to this idea on the day that jamal khashoggi went missing, when they claim he had left the consulate unharmed, they also said they couldn't provide video evidence of that because their cameras had malfunctioned and were not recording. well, now it appears they weren't malfunctioning per se, but yes indeed, were not recording. again, that speaks to this idea of some kind of premeditation. there was still a lot of holes in the narrative. and the main question i think, kate, is where is the body of jamal khashoggi. and to this end, we heard president erdogan issue a sort of stream of fiery questions. who ordered this? why did these men gather in

istanbul? where is the body? and most importantly, who is the local collaborator? you might remember that saudi officials are saying they don't know where the body is because the team handed it over to a local collaborator who then disposed of it. they don't know where he disposed of it. president erdogan drilling down on that, asking them to provide a full account of who this collaborator is. so far, no indication that saudi authorities intend to share that information, if indeed they do have it, and today's, of course, davos in the desert, a much boycotted investment conference, went off. we're hearing reports that the prince mohammed bin salman even received an ovation as he arrived at the event. no sense just yet that the saudis are ready to give erdogan and turkish authorities the full cooperation they're demanding. >> or that they're paying any price. thank you so much. now to russia. where national security adviser john bolton is meeting with

russian president vladimir putin today. he's laying out president trump's intention to withdraw from a 30-year-old nuclear weapons treaty. a cold war treaty. cnn's senior international correspondent fred pleitgen is there following this. you talked to bolton. what did he tell you? >> yeah, i certainly talked to bolton earlier today. i want to give you the latest lines that i got a couple seconds ago coming directly out of that meeting between vladimir putin and john bolton. this is coming to us via the russian official news agency. and apparently in that meeting, president vladimir putin told john bolton that he was surprised by the very hars line that the russians are getting out of washington, also apparently said that he would like to meet president trump once again, apparently to that, john bolton answered that president trump would be very happy to meet vladimir putin. but as you said, right now, the big thing here in town is the reaction to the u.s. wanting to pull out of the inf treaty. i did catch up with john bolton earlier today, and i asked him

whether or not the u.s. is really pulling out or whether there might be some wiggle room for negotiations and how the russians are taking all this. here's what he said. >> the russians been quite understanding for your reasoning when you explain it to them? >> well, i think their preference as they have stated is we not withdraw, but i think we have given them reasons why we're going to do that and they understand the reasons quite clearly. some of which i think they fully appreciate from their own strategic perspective. i think the president could not have been clearer, not just on saturday but yesterday as to what his decision is. >> so there you have john bolton earlier today. we're waiting for him here outside in central moscow. he said he'll have a press conference after the meeting with vladimir putin. we'll keep you posted on what comes out of that as well. >> thanks so much. joining me right now, cnn national security analyst, former senior adviser to the

security council under president obama. samantha vinvinograd. as clarissa was revealing the new details he did reveal, the consulate went to a nearby forest, the consulate also disconnected its cameras on that day, still no word, they say the saudis say they don't know. turkey is saying where is the body. the fact there is just no accounting for where khashoggi's body is right now. where is this all headed, when you add in the detail the president now is frustrated and how this is all being depicted and frustrated with the story that the saudis are handing out? where is this headed? it seems that it's just almost treading water at the moment. >> well, it has to head somewhere because the president has a report due to congress on the investigation in under four months. we have that timeline. erdogan said what a lot of us are thinking, which is the saudi investigation is a farce and that their explanation for what happened is completely implausible. he also redefined the crime. he said it was a ferocious

murder, which begs the question, what are the turkish and saudi investigators investigating together? saudi arabia has said this was not premeditated and erdogan said it was and laid out evidence. there's a problem here. erdogan uses his own law enforcement system and judiciary for personal and political means. remember, he locked up pastor brunson on trumped up charges. we now have two countries, turkey and saudi arabia, investigating potentially different crimes to try to figure out what happened when both have personal and political and so the most important thing that happened today is that gina haspel went to istanbul or to turkey, excuse me, to review intelligence because she's going to see what turkey has to say, but she's also going to share what we know, which puts more pressure on everyone involved to have a thorough investigation. >> and i actually wanted to get your take on what does that indicate from the u.s. side? would she be going over there if she trusted the investigation would be done. >> she might be.

her going shares we want to know what you know. >> she's going to come back with more information or maybe answers. >> that's a proper way to share intelligence, not by leaked tidbits to the turkish press. >> about john bolton meading with vladimir putin right now, when the president says when it comes to the nuclear treaty that he's prepared to build up the u.s. nuclear arsenal until other countries come to their senses, what does come to their senses mean? >> i think vladimir putin would like nothing more than to get into a superlatives contest with president trump over our nuclear arsenal. it's music to vladimir putin's ears. it helps him domestically and also makes the president look so foolish. we are currently under a live attack by russia. russia spends less than 1% of its defense budget on its cyber warfare attacks against the united states. we're not talking about that during the visit. we're talking about a 30-year-old treaty and it's unclear to me why the president is so fixated on our nuclear deterrent at this point rather than the live attack we're

currently undergoing. >> that's an important perspective about the attack under way right now. thanks to see you. >> coming up for us, the white house fight that required secret service intervention. chief of staff john kelly getting into a heated argument with a former top trump aide and grabbing him by the collar. details ahead. at humana, we believe great things are ahead of you when you start with healthy. and part of staying healthy means choosing the right medicare plan. humana can help. with original medicare, you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits when you're sick. but keep in mind you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan can cover your deductibles and co-insurance, but you may pay higher premiums than you do with other plans. and prescription drug coverage isn't included. but, with an all-in-one humana

medicare advantage plan, you could get all that coverage plus part d prescription drug benefits. you get all this coverage for zero dollar monthly plan premium in most areas. and humana has a large network of doctors and hospitals. so call or go online today. find out if your doctor is part of the humana network and get your free decision guide. discover how an all-in-one medicare advantage plan from humana could save you money. there is no obligation and the book is free. whooo! want to get a move on your next vacation? tripadvisor now lets you book over a hundred thousand tours, attractions, and experiences in destinations around the world! like new orleans! from cooking classes, to airboat tours, tripadvisor makes it easy to find and book amazing things to do. and you can cancel most bookings up to 24 hours in advance for a full refund. so your whole trip... will be smooth sailing! read reviews check hotel prices book things to do

tripadvisor

we've hadfor a long time.is in san francisco and half-measures haven't fixed it. homelessness doesn't just hurt homeless people. it hurts all of us. that's why we're all voting "yes" on c. the plan is paid for by corporations

that just got a massive tax break. it's time for them to give back by helping all of us to fix our homeless crisis. with more affordable housing... expanded mental-health services... clean restrooms and safe shelters. vote "yes" on c. it helps all of us. unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. another day, another report

of drama inside the white house. two sources confirm to cnn that in a heated argument last february, chief of staff john kelly grabbed former senior campaign official corey lewandowski by the collar. this was first reported by "the new york times." it got so physical and heated, according to the times, the secret service had to intervene. a week after sources also described a yelling match between kelly and john bolton playing out, outside the white house. cnn's abby phillip is at the white house with much more on this. abby, what is going on here? this is not a normal workplace environment. are people talking about kelly's temper today? >> well, you know what, kate. it actually probably is that kelly's temper is in the news, as you just pointed out. john bolton, that heated argument they had in the west wing has seemingly prompted some of kelly's critics to come forward with some more information about his alleged temper. this incident, as you pointed out, happened outside of the

oval office back in february. now, these two men are no friends of each other. they often have disagreements. john kelly was apparently upset about some criticism corey lewandowski was making very publicly on television about him at the time. so they got into it, and kelly was trying to kick lewandowski out of the west wing, physically. grabbed him by the collar, prompting secret service to intervene. now, we're talking about this in part because there is always in this white house this constant back and forth about who's up and who's down, who has more power and who does not. now, john kelly has already said he's going to be there through 2020, but there are clearly people in this building, outside of this building, eager to air out some of this dirty laundry. and even as we speak about this, john kelly is the chief of staff, but we have been reporting for month that some of his influence has been waning here in the west wing. this could be yet another example of how people are feeling pretty emboldened to

raise some of these issues. but also raising a real concern about people being physical in the west wing. i should also add, you know, corey lewandowski has his own history with being physical with folks. he was arrested back in the campaign for alleged assault against a reporter. so both of these men have their history with perhaps anger issues, violence, you name it, kate. >> you name it, abby. great to see you. thank you so much. coming up for us, exactly two weeks from election day. and in the districts that will decide the balance of power in congress, democrats still have a lead. according to a new poll, it is a small one. we're going to get you to the new numbers and what they mean ahead.

♪ ♪ our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get you the readiest. (buzzer sound) holiday inn express. be the readiest. their medicare options...e people go to learn about before they're on medicare. come on in. you're turning 65 soon? yep. and you're retiring at 67? that's the plan! well, you've come to the right place. it's also a great time to learn about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. here's why... medicare part b doesn't pay for everything. only about 80% of your medical costs. this part is up to you... yeah, everyone's a little surprised

to learn that one. a medicare supplement plan helps pay for some of what medicare doesn't. that could help cut down on those out-of-your-pocket medical costs. call unitedhealthcare insurance company today to request this free, and very helpful, decision guide. and learn about the only medicare supplement plans endorsed by aarp. selected for meeting their high standards of quality and service. this type of plan lets you say "yes" to any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. there are no networks or referrals to worry about. do you accept medicare patients? i sure do! see? you're able to stick with him. like to travel? this kind of plan goes with you anywhere you travel in the country. so go ahead, spend winter somewhere warm. if you're turning 65 soon or over 65 and planning to retire, find out more about the plans that live up to their name.

thumbs up to that! remember, the time to prepare is before you go on medicare! don't wait. get started today. call unitedhealthcare and ask for your free decision guide. learn more about aarp medicare supplement plan options and rates to fit your needs. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance.

all the tools you need for every step of the way. make it, squarespace

early voting is under way in several states. we're now two weeks away from election day, and a new poll is showing that democrats have a narrow lead over republicans in the fight for the house in key battleground districts, but so narrow that the poll says the lead is now statistically insignificant. a new "washington post" poll shows 50% of likely voters polled in the key districts prefer the democrat in the district. 47% would vote for the republican. again, that is within the margin of error. so what does this mean? who should be more worried right now since we're talking about fear and paranoia so much? joining me now, angela wry and alice stewart. to are district that democrats need to flip to win.

what is going on? >> i think there are a number of things going on. one is issues specific to certain communities. they get tied to their members of congress. they get tied to the ways in which people represent them, how they think they're representing them, and it can be tougher. i think democrats have a slight advantage right now because in every midterm election, presidents and their majorities are at risk. we saw that with barack obama. >> where is this democratic enthusiasm? >> i think it's here, but we also have to start acknowledging as time goes on, people don't find themselves confined in boxes like they used to. you could say millennials are to blame for that or to thank for that. there are a number of people who some may be pro-choice, but they may be wanting gun reform. am may see issues around wages and say, you know, i think people should get paid more, but they also see benefits in tax cuts. i think it just kind of depends. it really is on the candidate.

you shouldn't just say i'm a democrat or i'm a republic and therefore i expect to get your vote. it comes down to what is behind that platform. >> but, alice, do you think donald trump deserves credit for tightening up the numbers? >> absolutely, and angela is 100% right when it comes to each district is different. we're going to have these house races, which as she says, these are individual and specific. what works in manhattan is not going to work in rudy red montana. a lot of these congressional candidates are going to distance themselves from president trump, despite his surge in popularity and how the economy is doing and with regard to the supreme court. they will distance themselves from him because they're concerned more about issues such as pro-choice and other issues with regard to immigration and climate change and issues that are specific to that district. so you will see them probably distance themselves from this president, but in the senate, it's a completely different story. a lot of these senate races are in these ruby red states where

the president is doing well. he's got ten more rallies between now and the midterm elections. and he's going to go out there and push his message and his record of accomplishments and that will in my view help in these areas where the president is very popular. >> and i don't know yet how big of an issue this is in the election. and maybe that makes me even additionally sad. but this poll also looked at the issue of sexual assault and views around it. what the poll found is republicans are far more likely than democrats to say that they're concerned than men are unfairly accused. democrats flip. the democrats are far more likely to say women won't be believed when they come forward. essentially, what this poll says, it confirmed the two political camps we saw, the two political arguments during the brett kavanaugh/christine blasey ford mess that played out. if this is now so politicized, how do you unpoliticize it? >> and kate, i think that is the age old question. whether we're talking about

whether or not folks can make ends meet going from job to job, whether or not kids have the resources they need in school. none of these issues should be political, whether or not health care is a right. i sat in on a debate on sunday for the florida governor's race where they debated whether or not health care is a right. i don't understand how any of this became partisan. i can't wait until it's not, but to the point sexual assault, everybody has a woman in their family, either they came from one or they have a daughter or they have a sister. you know, they have an aunt, like somebody in your life, and to be fair, i know not all victims of sexual assault are not women, but you have someone around you who has experienced this, and these are not partisan issues. it's really sad. >> alice, president trump said a lot of things last night in the rally. among them this. i want to get your take. listen to this. >> a globalist is a person that wants the globe to do well, frankly, not caring about our country so much.

and you know what? we can't have that. you know, they have a word. it sort of became old fashioned. it's called a nationalist. and i say, really? we're not supposed to use that word. you know what i am? i'm a nationalist. >> when you hear that, alice, what do you make of it? >> i make of it the way that i think a lot of people in that room heard that statement. and we have to keep that into consideration, when he's talking to these groups, die-hard trump fans, his hard core base, they view nationalist as someone who looks at america first, as the president ran on. america first. it doesn't mean america alone, but america first. they look at nationalism in the same light as they do patriotism. and god bless america and america is the greatest, strongest nation that we have. that's the lens that these people aric looking at the term nationalist through. we have to understand that. he knows that, and he will continue, i guarantee, in the next ten rallies he has between

now and election when he's talking to those people, that's exactly how they hear what he is saying. it's certainly perceived much differently by others who look at the nationalist globalist lens. >> i want to get angela in on this. >> plain and simply, when donald trump says he's a nationalist, that is not a dog whistle. it's a fog horn to his base. alice, we know he's trafficking in fear. i am devastated to hear you defend that nonsense. there is an analogy that my pastor used to use all the time about when you dump a frog in a boiling pot of hot water, he'll immediately jump out, but if you put that frog in a cold pot of water and slowly turn the heat up, he will cook to death. i would hope we don't allow this country to cook to death behind this kind of nonsense. it's dangerous, toxic, and it needs to be stopped. >> i'm telling you what people across america are hearing. >> maybe we need to talk to them differently. it's devastating to hear you defend that. >> we'll be right back. alright, i brought in ensure max protein...

...to give you the protein you need with less of the sugar you don't. [grunting noise] i'll take that. 30 grams of protein and 1 gram of sugar. ensure max protein. in two great flavors. i that's the retirement plan.e, with my annuity, i know there is a guarantee. it's for my family, its for my self, its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.

some of the president trump's most loyal supporters come from america's heart land. that loyalty is being tested after tariffs are eating into the bottom line of barbers across the country. we spent about a month talking to the farmers and getting the stories. his fascinating look is up and he is here with me now. you talked to about 50 farmers and producers in five states. what did they tell you? farmers are not a monolith. what did they tell you?

>>. >> the majority voted for president trump and backed him because they thought he was tough. what this trade war is now doing is becoming a referendum on the toughness. many will stick with the president. if the election was tomorrow, they would vote for him again. some questioned the vote and questioned whether it was worth taking out their feelings about trump and the trade war on republicans who are running in the mid-terms. so many of these races are being run in red america. listen to what dave struthers in iowa had to say about his view on this trade war. >> it's just a tactic that people use to try to get some kind of solution to some other issue. we need a solution. we want trade. we don't want government aid. when i worked for 33 years, my

33 years can all be shot in a year. it is what it is. >> so the question that everyone has is, why are these people sticking with trump. why are these farmers sticking with trump when it's impacting their bottom line? there is a number of answers. it's not one answer. they don't see democrats reaching out. they don't see democrats as a party that wants their support or represents them. that's a key question in 2018 and 2020, too. >> they are being hurt and they wanted to give the president time and space to fix it. the lingering question is how long does that patience endure and when does it run out? this is an awesome look. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> president trump is stoking fear and spreading lies ahead of the election. is it helping republicans in the mid-terms? factually, maybe not. politically, maybe so. more on that, still ahead. e lots of people who are

confused about which medicare plan is right for them. hey, that's me. i barely know where to start. well, start here with me, karen. i'm a licensed humana sales agent. well, it's nice to meet you, karen. i'm john smith. hi, john. at humana, we know you're unique. so you have different needs from other john smiths. yah, i've always thought so. and together, we can find a plan that's right for you. great! i go to the doctor a couple of times a year. and i have some prescriptions. but i'm never fully sure of what's covered and what's not. with humana's all-in-one medicare advantage plans, you get coverage for hospital stays, doctor visits, and part d prescription drug benefits. all for an affordable, and sometimes, no monthly plan premium. do you have any more information? sure. i'll get a decision guide in the mail to you today. they're free. finally. someone who understands the real me. your health and happiness is important to us. call or go online now to get your free decision guide. call a licensed humana sales agent today. place, the xfinity xfi gateway.

and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today.

welcome to inside politics. thank you for sharing your day with us. turkey's president said saudi arabia is lying and lays out what he said is proof the royal family was in on a calculated plot to murder a dissident journalist.