today. to celebrate, coors light is making a limited edition beer with shavings from the ice at denver's ball arena where they play. it is available starting at 11:00 -- starting today at 11:00 denver area bars. i guess they filter that ice. >> you would hope so. >> i maybe wouldn't drink it. probably wouldn't taste the difference, but maybe just keep it as a souvenir. >> you have to be a super fan for that. all right, nice to see you, andy. and thanks for joining us. i'm christine romans. >> i'm laura jarrett. "new day" starts right now. good morning to our viewers here in the united states and all around the world, it is thursday, june 30th. i'm john berman with brianna

keilar. pat cipollone the former top lawyer at the white house has been subpoenaed by the january 6th committee. the committee clearly feels he is a central figure in their investigation. witnesses have testified that he pushed back on the fake electoral college scheme. cassidy hutchinson testified that cipollone warned if trump went to the capitol, quote, we're going to be charged with every crime imaginable. cipollone did meet with the panel informally in april but has been reluctant to do more. now a source tells dana bash he might agree to at least a limited transcribed interview. first on cnn, cassidy hutchinson stands by her testimony in the face of push back from the secret service. the former top aide to chief of staff mark meadows told the committee that trump was so determined to join his supporters at the capitol that he tried to grab the wheel of the beast. the presidential armored vehicle which was an suv that day. and lunged at an agent's throat. committee co-chair liz cheney

praising hutchinson for her candor and her courage. >> her superiors, men many years older, a number of them, are hiding behind executive privilege, anonymity and intimidation. but her bravery and her patriotism yesterday were awesome to behold. >> kaitlan plants beginning our coverage live from washington. >> reporter: the house select committee has momentum coming off of this cassidy hutchinson interview, public hearing earlier this week. pat cipollone the former white house counsel is someone that the house select committee has long wanted to talk to. they have been upping the pressure on him in recent public hearings and now we have liz cheney the vice chairwoman saying that cipollone had significant concerns re trump's january 6th activities, it's time for mr. cipollone to testify on the record.

any concerns he has about the institutional interests of his prior office are outweighed by the need for his testimony. he's getting the subpoena. he had engaged formally. and now he seems responsive. my colleagues here have this reporting that he will probably agree to a transcribed interview with some limitations. obviously there are secrecy concerns around the presidency, but it does appear that this would be a major step forward. there are loets of things that house select committee will want to ask pat cipollone about, specifically what he was telling donald trump before and around january 6, if he was giving trump warnings about violence to come or the possible illegality. cassidy hutchinson brought up one of these instances where he spoke to her that is almost certainly going to be something that they will ask about. this is what she said recently. >> mr. cipollone said something to the effect of, please make sure we don't go up to the capitol, cassidy, keep in touch with me.

we're going to get charged with every crime imaginable if we make that movement happen. >> and do you remember which crimes mr. cipollone was concerned with? >> in the days leading up to the 6th we had conversations about potentially obstructing justice or defrauding the electoral count. >> reporter: now, i can't overstate how significant this would be if pat cipollone were to come in to testify. he is of course one of the closest people to donald trump, mark meadows the chief of staff has not come in to testify with the house. of course, the house in the past has not had success getting someone like cipollone, the white house counsel, to testify with them. previously in the mueller investigation a criminal investigation don mccgahn the former white house counsel was willing to testify to mueller, with as not willing to testify to the house. the house fought for years to get him. if cipollone would come in now with political expediency this is a whole new ball game.

>> katelyn polantz, thank you. george conway, contributing columnist for the "washington post," george, thanks so much for being with us. you were serving as counsel to the january 6th committee pat cipollone sits down for a transcribed interview, what do you ask him? >> well, i basically ask him everything that happened on january 6th. i ask him specifically about the things that cassidy hutchinson said, including the statement by mr. cipollone, according to hutchinson, that he was fearful that we would be charged with everything under the sun if they allowed donald trump to go up to capitol hill. so there is a lot to ask him, there's going to be a lot to ask whether or not he had given donald trump warnings about his potential criminal liability and much a full accounting of that day is absolutely -- absolutely requires cipollone. >> and then what's the impact of that, george, depending on what

he says and how far he goes? >> well, i mean, the impact could be to reinforce cassidy hutchinson's testimony because that went up -- that testimony went a long way to establishing donald trump's criminal intent. let me give you an example that explains why. you remember the o.j. simpson case, not the first one, not the murder case, but the one he actually went to jail for nine years in nevada state prison for which was an armed robbery case. he lured a memorabilia dealer into a hotel because he thought the guy had stolen his stuff. he had stolen his stuff so he wanted to take it back and he took it back at gunpoint, but it didn't matter that o.j. simpson thought that the stuff belonged to him no more than a matters that donald trump might have thought that the election was won by him. he still used illegal means and intended to use illegal means to

steal the stuff back, and that's the thing that's happening with trump. what happened with cassidy hutchinson's testimony is that it showed that donald trump intended to use illegal means, force, to take back the presidency by marching with these people he knew couldn't cross through magnetometers because they were armed and he didn't care, he wanted them to go up to the hill. that's the devastating testimony we learned, along with the fact that cipollone, according to hutchinson, said that there were potential criminal conduct here if trump was allowed to go up to capitol hill. >> of course, cipollone central not just in this episode but so many others where according to other witnesses he told the president or told others what you are doing is not legal. fake elector keep is not legal. this would be wrong. it gets to the counsel that he gave which does get to the issue of privilege here, george,

because even in dana's reporting, her reporting is that cipollone might be cooperative in a limited transcribed interview. where do he claim executive privilege or even attorney/client privilege? >> well, i don't know that there are really -- there's really much left of an executive privilege claim after what the supreme court -- d.c. circuit and the supreme court did in the case that trump brought against the national archives where they basically said that the importance of the january 6th investigation outweighs any concern about executive privilege. the important thing to remember about the attorney/client privilege is that cipollone's client was not donald trump personally, he was -- he got a salary, cipollone got his salary from us, the taxpayers, he was a lawyer for the united states of america who was representing the institution of the presidency and not the president himself. so his legal advice actually

bl belongs to all of us. >> you tweeted after this hearing that chairman thompson in essence was sending a message to uncooperative and untruthful trumpers, call us now at 1-800-save-your-ass. >> i apologize for the language. >> i didn't say it, right, you did. >> i did. >> who else besides cipollone do you think might come out of the woodwork here? >> i don't know, but there are other people who are at the white house that day, i mean, mark meadows ought to come out and come clean and testify, for some reason he won't, but there are other people at the white house that day, there were other people who tried to speak to the president that day and obviously -- i mean, we don't know exactly the list of people that -- all the people that the january 6th committee has talked to or interviewed, but there has to be more out there. and also he's also saying, i think, that he's trying to tell

people that if you weren't fully forthcoming the first time you talked to us, here is your chance to come back and fill in the gaps of things you might have left out of the story. >> george, this is the first time we have had a chance to talk to you since cassidy hutchinson gave her testimony. other former federal prosecutors, lawyers, have come up and said that they do think it increases former president trump's legal jeopardy and the likelihood that he would come under specific investigation by the justice department. we learned overnight "the new york times" is reporting, though, that the doj and this committee not necessarily on the same page on how they're conducting the investigations. the "times" reports doj was surprised by cassidy hutchinson's reporting. they're still irked that the committee hasn't turned over videos and transcriptions of their depositions yet. what do you make of these parallel tracks and why hasn't the committee shared with doj? >> well, i can't answer as to why the committee hasn't shared all things with doj, i mean,

that's -- the question is really for the committee and for the doj as to what conversations they have had about how they're sharing materials. that said, this split, if you want to call it that, between the doj and the january 6th committee does not help donald trump. i mean, what doj is essentially saying there, if the reports are correct, is that holy cow, look at all this stuff that they had, we didn't know, that's really relevant to proving that donald trump committed crimes. >> we learned from cassidy hutchinson that mark meadows was initially trying to go to the willard hotel the night before the insurrection. if you were asking pat cipollone about that, presumably he would know more, right, about what kind of connection there would be between mark meadows and giuliani and roger stone and the folks who were at that willard hotel war room. what would you ask? what would you want to know? >> i would ask him about any conversations he had with anybody about meadows going over

there, about the war room. anything he knew, anything he learned about that, any and all testimony. we don't know what he was told. i mean, i don't know that it would have been such a great idea for meadows to tell the lawyers that he's going over to the willard, but maybe he did. maybe it did get through to cipollone. i mean, cipollone was probably on all red alert the entire time because he clearly was terrified that somebody was going to commit a crime. >> george conway, great to see you this morning. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. so we are waiting to hear from president biden this morning. he will hold a news conference at the nato summit. he will face a number of questions. he will no doubt face questions about what they're talking about the war in ukraine, also the roe v. wade decision by the supreme court, also potentially the january 6 harngs. a whole lot of news possible.

we're live in madrid. >> plus a chilling assessment of the economy from fed chairman jerome powell. he says it may never be the same because of covid. and a big win in ukraine, why a special operation on snake island left russian forces evacuating on speed boats. (vo) get verizon business unlimited from the network businesses rely on. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cocost. get verizon business unlimited from the network businesses rely on.

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here in a few hours president biden is going to be speaking at a major news conference in madrid where he will likely address several domestic issues here at home as well from the economy to abortion rights to the january 6th hearings. >> obviously the war in ukraine will also be a central issue. he's there at the nato meetings talking largely about ukraine. nato has expanded or is moving to expand its membership and also to strengthen its forces in europe. overnight a pretty significant

development in the war around ukraine, ukrainian officials there say they have pushed the russians out of snake island. you will remember snake island in the black sea is a key strategic point, the russians have held it since the start of the war. we're told the russians were forced to evacuate on speed boats. this was the same island, snake island, where ukrainian forces told the russians at the very beginning go eff yourself as they approached. the russians say they left the island as a gesture of good will. let's go straight to cnn's kaitlan collins live in madrid for us this orange with what we are expecting to hear from the president this morning. >> reporter: well, john and brianna, they are wrapping up these two days of the nato summit that's been happening in madrid and it's been this fundamental shift in how nate know operates. remember, this was an alliance that for four years when trump was in office was constantly under attack by the u.s. president, it led the french

leader to say that nato is basically brain dead as an alliance and now you have seen a total reinvigoration of this alliance ever since russia invaded ukraine four months ago which was not really a given, not something that the white house was fully expect to go see, although obviously something that they have rallied around and they have used this summit to do the same. i think the question here as these nato leaders are preparing to leave the summit is whether or not their actions here can match their actions at home and how long they can continue their support for ukraine or whether or not their domestic audiences are going to experience any fatigue. that's been a concern you have had from some ukrainian experts as they have talked about what these leaders are pledging, as you saw the nato secretary general said they will continue to support ukraine for as long as it takes. a big question has been centered around how long will it take? president zelenskyy when he was speaking to a g7 leaders as they were meeting in germany says he wants to see this war end by the end of this year which is just six months away. if you look at what the dni, the

director of national intelligence back in the united states is saying, she is saying that the situation on the ground despite what's happened in snake island and these other victory is still a grim situation and she does expect the fighting to continue for an extended period of time. i think that will be a big question here as well. you've seen the way that nato has changed, the rapid acceptance and invitation for finland and sweden to join nato, that hasn't been completed yet, but it is certainly a massive step forward for the alliance to expand from 30 members to 32. so those are going to be big questions facing biden, he is about to take questions at this press conference. it's his first press conference of this trip so there are certainly a lot of questions for him. >> we know you will be in the room trying to get some of those questions in. kaitlan collins looking forward to t thank you very much. and joining us now the anchor of cnn's "early start" laura jarrett, cnn political commentator errol louis and cnn political analyst and "washington post" columnist josh rogin. so some deliverables, josh, some disagreements as well.

what do you think we're going to be hearing from the president? >> right. i think it's been a really good week for nato, good week for finland, good week for sweden, ukraine not so much. i think the president is going to focus on the plus side, nato is stronger, russia doesn't like that. the nato countries are committed to the fight. he's not going to want to talk about the negative side which is the fact that there's no new sanctions on russia, they couldn't agree to t not even at the g7. zelenskyy is asking for heavy weapons, the long range artillery, they are still not giving it to him. also winter is coming and when the energy crisis meets that winter, all of these european countries will change their calculations. there is no plan for that. how do we break the siege of odesa and get the grain out so that there is not a food crisis to add to all of this other stuff. some good points, some bad points, biden will focus on the good points, hopefully the reporters will press for answers on the rest. >> a president who doesn't give a lot of news conferences at a time when his approval rating

the average is about 38%, what kind of image does he need to pro project? >> he needs to project the image as the leader of the free world, something that really he has not been able to do but is one of his stronger points, one of the areas where he can claim some successes. the fact that you do now have an expansion of nato on the table, the fact that they even sort of brought in their lands to a certain extend and are sending messages to china about this is the arnold democracies, this is the strong arm of democracy with the president sort of leading it. it couldn't be a greater contrast with what we saw as america first or some would have said america alone during the trump years. he gets to relive some of the stronger points and also partly makes up for the debacle of the withdrawal of troops from afghanistan which really started the slide of his popularity. i think he's going to sort of maybe try and turn things around and roll back the clock to when his approval ratings were quite a bit higher than they are right now. >> i think his trip has certainly been overshadowed by

what has happened with roe v. wade. i'm sure a lot of americans don't even know that biden is in madrid. what does he need to say? what does he need to speak to? >> i think he's going to have to at least address that as the elephant in the room, i'm sure reporters will ask him a lot about it and i think he needs to say here is the game plan. i mean, we know from our reporting cnn has been doing great reporting about they had this whole thing predicted because we saw the draft opinion. they knew roe was likely to fall. so now what? what's the plan? the democrats in congress, elizabeth warren, has been quite outspoken about a lot of suggestions, you know, making abortion services available on federal lands and the white house has been pushing back on some of those things. all right. so then what is the plan? i would ask him if i was there are you prepared to blow up the filibuster or make some change at least in a limited way to the filibuster to protect abortion rights the way you were for voting rights. >> roe versus wade overshadowed this trip, so has the january

6th committee and the hearings. you play the president, i will play a reporter in the room. mr. president, you know -- >> mr. berman, nice to see you again. >> the attorney general merrick garland based on what has been heard by the january 6th committee should doj be investigating donald trump? >> well, as you know that is up to the attorney general, i put him there. i mean, he's got to deflect in a way that makes it clear that he defers to merrick garland that this is important for history, that he wants to see some accountability, but, look, he has been very clear that he wants the doj to operate independently because he knows what has happened in the trump administration. at the same time he doesn't want to look sort of tone deaf. america has been hooked on these hearings and all of the revelations, i think the reporting was that he was going to watch the hearings and that he was -- you know, he was enthused about what was going to come out, whether in fact he's been following all the developments while he has been abroad, he's been busy, i think

i think he's going to deflect to merrick garland and not weigh in on whether the president will be indicted or investigated. >> what do you think, errol? >> on the question of rochd and the response where he is getting quite a lot of political criticism, he can, if he wishes to, point to the fact that he has appointed more judges to the federal bench than any president since kennedy in the first year. so he got 80 nominations moved, got 42 of them approved. he's got ketanji brown jackson who is going to be sort of sworn in, i mean, he can say, look, we are responding. we don't have to blow up the filibuster. we don't have to expand the size of the court or somehow put term limits in place. i'm doing what i can do and i'm doing it better than most of the presidents. you know, before me. that's a pretty good place to start. i think also of course he's got a theme that's just waiting there for him, sort of a slow pitch over the plate to hit out of the park and say i defend democracy abroad and i defend democracy at home. that's what we do. that's what presidents do. >> when we have democratic dysfunction at home it undermines our leadership on the world stage, makes us look like

we don't know what we're doing and feeds the propaganda of our enemies says it is too messy and authoritarianism is better. when they look back to the trump administration they see america treated europe like garbage and look at what's going on now and say that could come back in a year or three years. biden is trying to say america is back as a levered democracies but he can't promise that that lasts any longer than his administration. >> i was going to ask you, josh, how does -- i guess we are talking about europe here -- how does europe at this point look at biden and is it similar or different to how ukraine or part of europe looked at president biden? >> right. they are behind him to a pint but they're suffering from the same thing he's suffering from, high gas prices and inflation. this he know that putin will take more pain than their populations will so they want an end game. they want to know how do we get out of this without losing power and biden doesn't have an answer for that. they're still behind him but i'm telling you zelenskyy is saying the same thing, we have months not years. time is not on ukraine's side,

not on europe's side, time is on the side of the dictators willing to subject their people to this kind of suffering forever. biden is on the -- he's got a timeline and he has to act fast and i don't see what the solution right side and i'm sure that will be a big part of the press conference today. how do you solve inflation, the food crisis, how do you get food prices down? one way is to win the war against putin, give zelenskyy the weapons he needs to win the war. if it's the long is that lag the europeans will jump off ship because they have to respond to their politics. >> because winter is coming. that's exactly what we thought. if winter is coming and that is the question here and this will also speak to american leadership, the leadership of joe biden. who is willing to go further, vladimir putin with the pain or joe biden and europe with the pain, what do you say? >> i say the ukrainians have the most will of all. they're fighting for their

homes, their families, their lives, they're not going to stop. the least we could do in my opinion is give them the weapons that they're asking for. right now we're playing this game of not escalating so we're giving them enough weapons to fight to a tie, that means that the war could go on forever. we can either give them the weapons they need to win this year or we can settle in for a really, really long slog. in the end i think the ukrainians have the most will of all but they can't do it without our support and they need more of it and they need it fast. >> thank you all so much. >> madam president. >> that was lovely. >> she's good. >> you stole that from ellie honing because it worked, just to be clear. >> role play always does. a sober assessment from fed chair jerome powell, he says that the u.s. economy has never return to it's pre-pandemic form. cvs reversing course after first deciding to limit purchases of contraception after the supreme court rules.

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the pandemic may have forever altered the economy, this is from the federal reserve chairman jerome powell. >> since the pandemic we've been living in a world where the economy is being driven by very different forces and we know that. what we don't know is whether we will be going back to something that looks more like -- or a little bit like what we had before. we suspect that it will be kind of a blend, but our job is to find price stability and maximum employment in the case of the fed in this new economy with the new forces. it is a different exercise than the one we have had for the last 25 years nonetheless the goals are the same. >> let's bring in cnn chief business correspondent and

"early start" anchor christine romans and cnn business correspondent rahel solomon. okay. explain this to us. what does he mean and how much anxiety should people feel when they listen to that? >> i mean, look, every crisis changes us, right? we were changed after the financial crisis, the real estate crisis of 2008-2009, we were changed by the dot-com boom and crash, right? so no question it will change us, but what he's talk being are these forces, the astonishing snap back of consumer demand that has snarled supply chains around the world. he's talking about the invasion of ukraine by russia, that is a force that is a new force that will change the supply and demand picture for some time to come. and i think what he's saying here and the ecb president christine lagarde said we are not going back to those decades of super low inflation that we all enjoyed. these new forces mean that there will be price pressure on gasoline, on oil, on commodities, on food. i mean, it's been like a rolling

set of supply/demand imbalances, there was baby formula, now airlines, i mean, that's the new supply/demand imbalance. we are rolling through these post pandemic realities. >> to add to that also this idea that the last few decades companies have really leaned into globalization as a way to keep prices low and the last few years the pandemic has really made companies start to question, well, how vulnerable are our supply chains. we've seen it with ukraine, with china every time there is a lockdown balls of covid, factory shutdown. this idea that's being questioned a lot by business leaders is the way it's been working, the best way it should continue to work, or do we start to rethink geopolitically and politically where we have our factories and start to consider as christine lagarde said, are these political foes or are they friends? we're going to see a reco reconfiguration perhaps about how companies do business. >> look, i understand a fraction of what the both of you

understand with this, but when he said this i was like, wow, i think this is a really big deal what he's saying. super long term what you're talk being also in the near term where he seemed to say the risk of high -- persistently high inflation, high prices is much bigger than inflation, much more -- i would hate to see us more having inflation for a longer period of time he basically said than go into a recession. >> i have to also say that crystal ball over at the fed was broken over the last year or so so you have to take all of this with a big grain of salt, we don't know what's going to happen next. he's saying maybe -- we don't know what it's going to look like, whether we're going to go back to the way it used to be or whether there is a new set of factors, variables here. what i do know is when i look at our 401(k)s the market is very concerned about all of these risks. the s&p 500 this year down 20%. this is the worst first half of a year since 1970. we have never lived through this. the market is already kind of factoring in, i think, all of

this uncertainty and the fact that -- i talked to an energy analyst in the last hour who said, look, for 20 years you had low inflation, you had a lot of gas and it was cheap and we all got really used to that. we need to consider that that may have been the scenario of the last decade and it will not be the scenario of the coming decades. >> just really quickly, when he says, though, entrenched inflation is worse than an economic downturn, the first people who may be laid off, that is cold comfort to them because they're still dealing with inflation and an economic downturn. >> it's a great point, in fact, and did he reiterate yesterday that the likelihood that this will be painful is there, right, in the sense that they do have to manage inflation and that is going to make borrowing costs more expensive and if you already don't really have a lot of wiggle room you're getting hit on both sides, on the price pressures in terms of inflation. it will involve some pain and i think that's what we've soon. we've heard them talk about the

dual mandate, maximum employment, full employment and price stability as they're trying to figure out a goldilocks temperature. what he has said is that he feels like because the job market has strengthened to an unhealthy level is how he described it at one point there's so much demand for workers right now. the hope is that if they do it just right they can pull from the imbalance and the demand for workers without hopefully triggering joblessness, cross our fingers. >> consumer balance sheets are pretty strong and so are company balance sheets, they're still pretty strong. we are entering this period of uncertainty in a better shape than we did the last few crises we have had. that would be my, you know, sort of let's not get too down about this because we are -- we could get through it okay, you know? >> here is hoping. >> thanks for the comfort because we didn't get it from jerome powell i will tell you that. so the death toll rising in what is just -- i mean, this is being called the worst case of human smuggling in u.s. history.

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this morning four people are now being charged in connection to what officials say is the worst human smuggling incident in u.s. history. 53 migrants died after being trapped inside of a semi-truck in sweltering heat. cnn's omar jimenez is live in san antonio with more. omar, what can you tell us? >> reporter: well, brianna, these are federal charges against four people allegedly tied to this incident. among them the driver, he is charged with smuggling undocumented immigrants resulting in death. authorities were able to match his description after the truck

passed through an immigration checkpoint to a person they found hiding at the scene as authorities first got there. another man was charged with conspiracy to transport undocumented immigrants resulting in death after allegedly having communicated with the driver about this smuggling. if either of them are convicted they could face life in prison or even potentially the death penalty. the other two people were charged after -- with illegal possession of a weapon by someone illegally in the united states, they were found after authorities traced the license plate of the truck to an address here in the san antonio area. as we know 53 people were killed as part of this. and the san antonio police chief says when authorities first got there the floor of this trailer was covered in bodies and authorities had to push through that to even potentially find survivors. around ten or so of those survivors are still recovering this week. as we learned from the archbishop of the diocese of san antonio many are still

unconscious or can't even speak. of the dozens that were found dead, the justice department says it 2 are mexican narv nls, 7 from guatemala, 2 from lond does and 17 were non-u.s. citizens in part of what has been a long i had fooiks process that's required coordination across multiple countries and as part of what the department of homeland security has described as the deadliest human smuggling incident in u.s. history. >> thank you for that update live from san antonio. ahead, we will speak with javier salazar about where the investigation stands now. five months from the midterm elections and a new poll shows a clear leader between rafael warnock and herschel walker. a fast walker. thanks, gary. and for unexpected heartburn... frank is a fan of pepcid.. it works in minutes. nexium 24 hour and prilosec otc can take onene to four days to fully work.

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2022 looking the same. we do have some brand-new polling this morning from georgia. cnn senior data reporter harry enten is here. this is a quinnipiac poll, let's talk about the governor's race first. >> i wasn't sure. i wasn't sure. >> let's talk about the governor's race. >> taking that midnight train back from georgia. okay. here we go. choice for georgia governor the quinnipiac university poll 48% for brian kemp, 48% for stacey abrams. you don't have to be a mathematical wizard to know that is a tied race. i've also taken a harry's estimate which is essentially looking at all the polling recently and that does show brian kemp a little bit more out ahead, 50% to 45%, the question is whether this new poll is some sort of key in on a new state of the race or whether of course these two results are kind of within the margin of error of each other so it may just be this is a better poll for stacey

abrams than the average tends to be. >> the senate race that split may play a bigger role. >> now we get to the senate race and what do we have here? now, this, if this -- numbers are correct and corroborated by other data this would be quite the story because this is a key senate race in terms of control. remember right now the senate is 50/50 with the vice president breaking the tie. if democrats can hold on here their chances of holding on to the u.s. senate go way up. what does the poll show? rafael warnock with a ten-point lead over herschel walker. you look at, again, my estimate, it's a closer race, but still even here warnock is ahead 49% to 46%. i will be honest with you, john, when this race first started even though there were a lot of people that were skeptical of herschel walker because of her tendency to make controversial statements and his history georgia has historically been a red state even though joe biden won by a small margin in 2020. i thought walker would overstate

warnock, but so far warnock is holding on. >> mostly post supreme court overturning roe versus wade. so if you are a democrat you're thinking, oh, maybe there's some shifting here toward the democrats, toward warnock, or it could just be some noise in the polls. >> that's a wonderful thing, right? as we march forward in time we can never go backwards we learn more and more. this is the first signal, whether or not it's a signal or noise, we will find out. >> however, i will say when you ask voters in georgia what the most important issue is -- >> it ain't abortion. just 10% of georgia voters say abortion is the most urgent issue facing their state. inflation. inflation, inflation, inflation, still the number one issue at 41%. this to me is key because i bet we will see it corroborate in other polls. inflation, inflation, inflation. if democrats are hoping to run on abortion and running pro choice candidates in the fall and that could move races, this

poll suggests that might not be the case. >> let's look at wisconsin also while we are talking about this. obviously another key swing state. >> another key state that has a key gubernatorial and senate race. we will start in the gub for i can't race where tony evers is the incumbent governor, the democrat. among all voters tony evers has a 48% to 42% lead, average over the leading republicans you can see that we have two that we've averaged here, but here to me is the key take away from this, we've been talking about this, john, an enthusiasm gap. is there an enthusiasm gap in the state of wisconsin. if you look at the enthusiastic voters instead of a 6 point lead for the democrat on average, look at that, you get a 1 point lead on average for the republicans. so this could point to a problem for democrats in the fall where there could be in fact an enthusiasm problem. >> in midterms you tend to see more enthusiastic voters dominating until the numbers there. let's talk about the senate rate in wisconsin.

>> we will take a look at the senate race which shows basically the exact same thing with that enthusiasm gap. ron johnson among all voters he has a 1 point lead over the average of leading democrats you can see here lasry and barnes, but if you look only among the very enthusiastic voters that lead expands out to 4 points. this is a race democrats would love to take away from the republicans. this poll suggests that that might be more difficult to achieve even though ron johnson's favorables in those polls no bueno but it seems to be a republican year. >> always been a target of democrats but always very resilient at the end of the day. >> always seems to me that democrats underestimate him. >> harry enten, thank you very much. >> thank you. r. kelly sentenced to 30 years in prison for sex trafficking women and underaged girls. what his victims are now saying. and pat cipollone subpoenaed by the january 6th committee. why they think his testimony could be explosive.

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30 years in prison, that is the sentence for disgraced r & b singer r. kelly. a federal judge in new york sentencing the "i believe i can fly" hit maker yesterday after he was convicted of sex trafficking and racketeering late last year. cnn's jean casarez joins us with more. jean? >> brianna, officially right now r. kelly is with the u.s. bureau of prisons as a convicted federal and sentenced felon. now, yesterday during his sentencing when it was announced he was emotionalless, he was obviously silent but at the very same time the survivors in the courtroom they were together and they all held hands waiting to hear what that sentencing was. right after it was finished everyone really came outside, i want you to listen to jovante cunningham a former backup singer of r. kelly, she was overwhelmed by the verdict.

>> i started this journey 30 years ago, i was 14 years old when i encountered robert sylvester kelly. there wasn't a day in my life up until this moment that i actually believed that the judicial system would come through for black and brown girls. 30 years did he do this and 30 years is what he got. >> and now the u.s. attorney for the eastern district of new york who prosecuted and then also r. kelly's defense attorney and this is right after the sentencing had been announced. take a listen. >> this is a significant outcome for all victims of r. kelly and especially for the survivors who so bravely testified about the horrific and sadistic abuse they endured. r. kelly is a predator and as a result of our prosecution he will serve a long jail sentence for his crimes. >> we were prepared for what the judge might impose, so it didn't come as a great big surprise.

we were prepared for it and we are now prepared to fight this appeal. >> and the defense had gotten unsealed just days before the sentencing that r. kelly had been sexually abused himself starting when he was 6 years old by family members, nonfamily members, there was even alleged one family member took pictures of him in compromising positions. the judge said that this could be a reason for why this happened. she took into consideration but it was not a reason to have an excuse. brianna, john? >> no excuse for everything we learned in that trial. jean casarez, thank you. "new day" continues right now. hello, i'm brianna keilar alongside john berman on this "new day." former trump white house counsel pat cipollone subpoenaed after new testimony revealed he repeatedly raised legal concerns about january 6th. and president biden set to hold a news conferenc