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tv   Today in Washington  CSPAN  December 15, 2009 6:00am-9:00am EST

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to early education and manifesting their policy initiatives through programs like the early learning challenge grants and the race of the top programs. but we really can do more.@@@@, are talking about systems that not only help professionals learn to apply the knowledge but we need to make substantial investments in systems of
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recruiting, compensating and retaining the high quality workforce for young children and families. we also need policies that support families with infants and toddlers. parental leave policies have an impact on how children have access to high quality environments in their earliest years. effective home visiting and policies that promote supportive and rich environments in the home as well as the classroom. we need policy that allows a mixed delivery system and that helps simplify the complexities of the early childhood funding streams, and there are many. and finally, we need -- we must think about how we are protecting these investments in the early years by aligning early childhood programs with public school programs and providing continuity of experiences for young children
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from birth really through the end of third grade. if we can get a solid impact have a solid impact on children's learning trajectories, they have much better chance of being successful later in life. in conclusion, the national black child development institute believes that all children are born learners. and we would like to think that every child has genius potential at birth. and, thus, it is a birth right to have that genius be allowed to unfold. so when we see what we see, the consequences in our school systems of children under achieving, losing ground and failing, more and more with each subsequent year they atend, what we are witnessing, we think, is neglect and failure on our part to provide them with the opportunities and support to make their innate genius manifest. the most fundamental approach to
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correcting this is to start early. >> thank you very much. we are looking for lilian sparks, executive director of the national indication education association. however, she could not get out of jury duty and so she is, in her stead, carrie venegas, the house school policy director for the national indian education policy association. >> thank you very much for having us here and lilian sparks does apologize, but she's doing her civic duty. one thing i would just like to open with on behalf of native communities is to, first of all, say thank you for the opportunity to speak for native communities here and also to thank everyone sitting on this panel who we consider a native communities to be all of our relatives because all kids are our kids in our communities, and we have an skwl responsibility for ensuring every child has a
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good education, a good future and is healthy. and with that being said, iing one of the most important points from a native community standpoint is that our students experience some of the highest rates of poverty, suicide, incarceration, learning challenges and the lowest of graduation rates. the most recent numbers place native students at 50% or less for graduating on an annual basis. and this is actually an improvement from the last five years. we also have the lowest college going rates, 13%, compared to a national average of around 24.4%. native communities are unique in the fact they're one of the only communities in the united states that the federal government has a unique trust responsibility for that's guaranteed in the u.s. constitution. meaning that the education and welfare for native students is a federal responsibility. and involves nation to nation treaties and trust relationships. so this is a very unique kind of picture. however, most people don't
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recognize or understand native students in schools, and this is one of the problems. i'd like to recognize my colleague to the right because i think this happens to many students in the southeast asian community. we're invis nibble the data. when you are an invisible student, when the data doesn't exist for your communities, it's hard and difficult to educate these children appropriately. so i would say that one of the best policy approaches to eliminating the achievement gap is making sure that our data systems fully account for every student. in particular, those students who may not be the larger percentages or may not be the most vis nibble any discussion but certainly suffer from the biggest despaisparities. in addition to that, effective teachers are something that is always a consideration for us. the majority of teachers in native communities are recruited outside of the communities. as noted by our low graduation rates, it's sometimes hard to find highly qualified candidates or simply the educational avenues don't exist in rural areas in alaska, montana, new mexico, northern california. and there are challenges to
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making sure that native teachers exist. when we talk about effective teachers, we also have to raise the issue of what is an effective teacher? but what is an effective teacher of a native student or a southeast asian student or an african-american student? are there unique things that can be addressed? and we think that there are. for us, and i give full credit to several of the tribal schools running their own programs. it's a 200% education. that academic achievement and closing the academic gap does not just begin and end in academics. it's a wholistic approach. 100% rigorous academics combined with 100% rigorous ability to be a healthy successful person in your own community and to understand what it means to be a part of who you are. in relation to this, we also believe that it's very important for rural and urban differences to be recognized. a lot of times there are educational reform models that
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take into consideration urban models. places where the differences and challenges may be similar, but may be incredibly important in the distinctions that they have. for example, on the navajo reservation in the four corners region of new mexico, a student can travel 2 1/2 to 3 hours one way each day in order to attend school. when you double that each day and then you times it times five and then you times it times the amount of days that student goes to school, you understand some of the challenges to even running enrichment programs or to getting your homework done. when the roads are impassable in areas like montana during the winter, students often are unable to attend school at all. we also believe that early childhood education to echo a lot of my colleagues on this panel is incredibly important. a child needs to start with a foundation of learning and reading, not only in the language that will allow them to access curriculum but also in their own language that gives them a sense of grounding and a firm commitment to their own communities. a piece that's been missing in
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indian education since the beginning of treaty rights. we also feel that it's very important that research be directed towards the communities that we seek to serve, whether they're native communities, southeast asian or latino communities. for example, reading first in early reading first is a program widely endorsed and used in public school systems. however, none of the data sets have taken into consideration native students. however, all of the bie schools were required to use this program. the question remains, how do you decide if these are effective programs and effective allocations of dollars without that kind of important research and data? i'd like to say that for us, one of the biggest pieces is the effective collaboration and working together of federal agencies and public school systems. 90% of native students are in public schools. however, native students move among three school systems. tribal, bureau of indian education, administered by the department of interior and public schools understand state,
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local and department of education -- u.s. department of education. this means that it is of primary importance that all agencies and federal entities, local and state, work hard to collaborate on these issues in meeting the needs of native students. and of all students. without collaboration, without a shared vision and without a shared commitment to high quality curriculum, assessment and effective teachers, it becomes virtually impossible for systems to work together to make sure that our students are remaining healthy, successful and able to achieve the life that we all dream that they would have. thank you. >> thank you. ms. eccleson. >> good afternoon. okay. i am so honored to be here. thank you so much. i have so much to say to you and they've given up 5 to 7 minutes to be profound. luckily i'm a little hyperactive. i'm going to talk really fast. i'm not a researcher. i'm not a statistician. i am an excellent professional,
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highly qualified, obviously humble, sixth grade teacher from the great state of utah where people still think diversity means you found a presbyterian. and i have taught in the suburbs of salt lake city and i've taught homeless children who live at the homeless shelter. we are a state of great diversity as is every state in this country. and what i have to say to you comes from the perspective of a practitioner. i am honored that the folks that put this together thought that the voice of a teacher was important. i will tell you for myself and for my colleagues, we are confused. we are depressed. we are discouraged. and we've never been so hopeful that things will get better, that things will improve. they have to. they can't get worse. well -- maybe. but we are going to make things better because of conversations like this. where people who love children,
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who love the entire community's children are coming together to say closing those achievement gaps is important. what's an achievement gap? what are we measuring? what is the proper measurement to find out if we're going in the right direction? i will tell you for myself ihave stop, stop, stopped calling a test score gap an achievement gap. if you are limiting achievement to the difference in a standardized commercial test score, you have limited what you are expecting from me as a teacher when you focus on a narrow multiple choice test score to design something as mind blowingly complex as the achievement of a human-type child, you narrow what it means to teach. and you narrow what it means to learn. i was on a talk radio show in florida, and the reporter said you know, don't you think you are a little hypocritical that
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as a teacher you are against tests? so i spoke very slowly so he would understand and told him i am a teacher. we invented tests. i gave my sixth graders lots and lots of stefts. essay tests and spelling tests. you got a point if you put the comma in the right place and you got a point if you gave me a good answer. but you got two points if you gave me a good question. we'd have our science fair and the kids would do all their experiments and you got point if your experiment worked. you got extra points if your experiment didn't work and you could tell me why it didn't work. you want kids to be thinkers and problem-solvers and always being creative. for all my kids, the gifted, the talented, the kids with disabilities, and sometimes that was all the same kid. it was a gifted and talented english language learner with a
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disability. all of my kids fully participated as part of a team. i designed my curriculum to make sure all kids had multiple ways of showing me they got it, of showing me that they could be successful and we would design and we would execute our class projects that had real world impact. i told that reporter that i think about what kind of teacher i've been, but what kind of teacher would i be if i limited the experiences i wanted my kids to have so that i could maximize the time i spent drilling and drilling on a standardized test. what kind of teacher would i be if i limited myself to only what was in a scripted textbook so that it was aligned to the scripted standardized test, and i stopped letting my students teach me what they needed me to teach them. and what kind of teacher would i be if i focused on the bubble
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kids. you know, the bubble kids? i have a friend who e-mailed me from utah and she said i want to stop teaching. she is an excellent teacher. she's the best i know. and she said i just came out of a faculty meeting where the principal explained that we were going to make adequate yearly progress by any means necessary. and so we were to ignore the top academic achievers. they're going to pass the test and we're going to ignore the lowest academic achievers. they're not going to make it, and you're going to focus on the kid on the bubble who just barely made it last year or who just barely didn't make it. and you are going to drill and drill barely didn't make it. and you are going to drill and drill and drill them. this principal was telling her be a bad teacher. what kind of teacher would i be if i didn't take the time to design my instruction so that i challenged the most advanced
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students and found multiple ways for the most disadvantaged students to learn something important. i would very likely be the kind of teacher whose test scores would go through the roof. but i would no longer be a good teacher. there are sinister ways to close a test score gap. i want to@@@@@@@ brr"b"jrr
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school system, preschool to 12th grade to be responsible for making sure every single blessed child is prepared for higher education. every one of our kids is going to be more successful if they have higher education. community college, barber college, harvard, whatever it is to meet their goals. so make me work hard enough for what comes after high school. don't even let it enter my mind that not 100% of my kids will graduate. let's do what we do based on the best research. i'm not a resempler but i use it. the best research says the most disadvantaged kids need a good quality early childhood education teacher. so high school teachers should
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care there is a good preschool teacher in their system, because whether or not those kids can count to 100 will affect that high school math teacher's ability to do his or her job. research shows that class size matters, especially dramatically in those early grades. so if you want to do something like universal design for learning where every child is constantly assessed with good measurements on whether or not they are advancing in the proper way, you are able to personally design instruction for your students. measure what counts towards higher education. why can't the gaps be showing up, participating, articulating their career goals, understanding the plans to get them to their career goals, so they are prepared and qualified for every step of the continuum towards their career goals. there should be a high course pass rate. there should be a high graduation rate.
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there should be a high rate of higher education applications and acceptance before they graduate. you can measure all of those things. there should be a high satisfaction rate among parents and students themselves that their school was high quality and it was relevant to their lives. never before has a generation been so well prepared for the previous century. we're not doing it right. we're in the 21st century and the skills we need our kids to know are not easily measured on a commercial standardized test, design, analysis, creation, problem solving, leadership, teamwork. those are the things i want us to move towards. those are the policies that will make a difference for my students. thank you. >> thank you. thank you. sharon lewis.
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>> thank you. i appreciate your comments, lilly, and a critical component from here is our conversation about what happens with teachers and ultimately what that means for students. early on in the panel presentations today, nancy jones mentioned the story of judy human. for those of that you don't know judy, judy has been a pioneer in terms of students with disabilities. when you look at what her life has become and what education looked like for her several decades ago versus what it looks like for students now, i think there's some very interesting lessons. recently i was asked to take a look at an iep of a young african-american student who is in the public schools. and i was shocked by what i was
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provided. i was provided by a couple of pages that talked about very little of what this student couldn't do, very few pages on why she had the educational level she did. the goals and expectations of this child were nominal at best. she had been written off in second grade. and i was appalled. i contrast that to another family i supported recently through a series of iep meetings in a suburban district in which the family was engaged in over seven iep meetings, over 90 hours of staff time expended again talking about this student. and the main difference between these two kids were where they went to school. where we've done a lot for
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students with disabilities, many of the achievement gaps we've talked about affect groups of kids who have multiple labels and often, as lilly talked about, we're talking about the same group of kids who wear all these labels simultaneously. on the first panel there was conversation about data. when we talked about idea data, we see the same kinds of trends. this is one of the places instead of looking at assessment data, we have tremendous amount of data around kids eligible under idea, yet achievement gap continues to grow. dropout dropped from 249% to 31%. increase in diplomas 63 to 64%. increase in certificates of completion from 7% to 13%.
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however, african-american students saw their drop out go from 50% to 32%, only saw diplomas from 34 to 42% and certificates of completion rise from 15% to 24%. latino students much the same story. dropout rate from 51% to 32%, certificates of completion 32 to 21. we need a conversation whether or not access to certificate of completion and having access to education for 0 to 21 years depending on what state you're in and what that means for you is a meaningful outcome for students as opposed to access to a diploma and the ability to access post secondary education. i think it's a conversation we don't talk enough about.
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as we move forward what are the things that make the difference, access to effective instruction. we know this. we know something nclb has done for students with disabilities despite 30 careers of trying in other ways, access to the general education curriculum for many students who had not been able to access it previously. we need to keep moving forward and ensure policies don't affect students with disabilities disproportionately in terms of having disin accessing general education curricula. not parallel curricula, the same curricula. we need conversations on how we address the challenges of disproportion ality. we still don't have our arms around the problems in terms of disproportionality related to students with disability. lastly i think one of the things we need to have conversations
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about are knocking down these sill os. i think that while we did -- congress did a phenomenal job of trying to align esea and ida in the last two reauthorizations of those laws we continue to have sill os between the two systems and two sets of expectations for stun. it's a conversation we need to continue to have as we move towards reauthorization. at the end of the day we're talking about all kids. many of these kids are one in the same. thank you. >> thank you. amy, welcome. can you hear me? >> one of the nice things going towards the end, people have said a lot of what i might have said. also, you guys have been sitting for more than an hour listening and that's just bad pedagoguey. if we are supposed to be
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educators, we should recognize we should get you to the q&a part as quickly as possible. i just want to make a couple of points. first, thanks for having me today. the second thing is i am so grateful to you for raising the point about higher ed. i was getting very distressed sitting here listening to a conversation about what it takes to get doids a high school diploma. a high school diploma is not what our kids need anymore. we're having a conversationing we should have had 50 years ago. the number of jobs with a high school education is dwindling. the jobs growing are the jobs that require education beyond high school. what we have to do is close the achievement gap not just in high school graduation, in college but in college conclusion. the way we do that is by ensuring kids have strong preparation all the way up. from pre-k on.
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i want to talk just for second about the power of education to do that. we have seen and you all know planning a pretty mediocre white people who achieved great success because of great schools. that's because education is terribly powerful. what we've done in this country, which is outrageous. we organized upside down. we take the kids that need the most and give them the very least we have to offer as a nation. then we turn around and we blame their families, we blame their communities. we say these kids can't learn, families are disorganized, communities are violent. we, who could change their schools, turn around their schools much more easily than we could turn around their communities look at their families instead of them looking at us. i think when you think about
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what the federal government can do, we need humility about the federal role. as i was walking in, the previous panel was talk about the limit of the investment. the federal government has to be very clear about what it expects on that $0.08 on the dollar. it has to not come with piecemeal initiatives as well intentioned as they are. it has to uses those $0.08 on the dollar to leverage big change for kids that need it the most. big systemic change that says we're going to turn the system on its head again and ensure those who need it the most get it. not with little programs but with big systemic changes. that starts with funding. we know most of the funding comes from state and local government. we also know state and local governments aren't fair with their money. the kids who need the most get the least. as a condition of receipt of federal funds, the federal government should demand school
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districts give poor kids at least their fair share of local funds and that states give poor kids at least their fair share of funds. as a condition of receipt of federal funds, the federal government should be cheer and unequivocal that the expectation of schools is to raise achievement overall and close the achievement gap. the assessments we might have might not be the best assessments. what i tell people, i could have a timex, a rolex, but the timex will tell me i'm late for the meeting. we know our kids are late. the current assessments we have do a good enough job to know we have a huge problem and we need to begin to solve them. so the federal government should expect big progress and know it doesn't measure everything, they need to be successful beyond high school. just because they don't measure
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everything doesn't mean the things they do measure does not matter. we expect them to raise the standards and close the gaps. when i was walking in, congressman scott was saying, and he was so right, that a big problem with nclb, enormous problem with nclb, what it did was identify schools in trouble and pretty much said fix it yourself. that is wrong. that is just wrong. what nclb did not do was put pressure on the school districts. the school districts are the appropriate first responders to schools. when we've looked at the data, what we've seen is struggling schools tend to cluster. there are school districts that can't or won't improve their schools and pay the attention that's needed to pay to struggling schools. in this next iteration of esea, we have to figure out a way not just to hold schools accountable but school districts accountable for supports for those schools.
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finally and most importantly i'm going to echo what everybody else on this panel has said and what common sense tells us. the most important thing we can does ensure every child, most particularly low income kids and kids of color get their fair share@@á%z&z&kz&z&j%"'z&z&j%"iz" with
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incredible ability to be with kids under siege. you've heard lots of funding and the way schools run and leadership. we often hear in a passing remark, wrap around services or school as the center of the community but we don't often to dive into what that means. i'd like you today to understand we believe there's actually a pretty -- good gap in a global.
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our challenges as we show up for school, we always say taking full advantage of other investments. what do we mean by integrated school services? there's a technical definition. the notion is you place an individual in the school whose job it is to partner with the teachers and principals and parents and assess the needs from a whole school perspective and build an intervention strategy that uses community resources strategically to mitigate early warning indicators and keep them on
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task, in attendance and target them with sustained interventions. so every child that walks through that door every day, that cool system, that school building is set up to say does this child have everything he or she needs to be successful. it's easier to fix schools than communities. this is a great example of what we're talking about. so the question is does it work. so five years ago community schools offered its monologue of integrated student services to say does it, in fact, make a difference in kids' lives. we used icf international, department of education, clearing house as the standard and launched a five-year longitudinal evaluation. at the end of the day in the last year of it, we can say three concrete things right now. one, when integrated student services are provided, we have a particular model, i'll talk to you later on, you can lower dropout rates and improve graduation rates with a real diploma in four years.
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secondly when you're faithful to this model of in grated service division, you can improve math and reading. finally, this is an incredible important point. you can take two match comparison scores, and one getting the same sets of services. one that has integrated services statistically outperforms the one that doesn't. it simply not enough to blanket resources at schools. it is an intentional alignment with the overall school improvement strategy that is critical. similarly, we recognize the importance of teacher quality. we surveyed and asked questions, does integrated service provision make a difference in the quality of your ability to do your job and your assessment of the readiness of your student
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to come to school. 90% said integrated student services are important in helping me effective in helping my students learn. how does this relate to the student achievement gap. cis helps 1.2, 1.4 million people. majority are kids of color and free reduced price lunch. we see that student achievement is available to them by providing integrated student service provision. we see it as a critical component, not a silver bullet. and i would never want to say teacher quality is not important. it's critically important, equitable distribution of funding. those are all critical. without integrated services provision we see those other strategies as hampered. in terms of policy recommendations, three recommendations. first integrated student services division become a critical component of education reform strategies, particularly for turning around low performing schools, school and redesign. finally as strategies for
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helping close the achievement gap. then there would be three, actually four key pieces of legislation we would very much encourage folks to support because they include integrated student provision as critical components. first keeping parents and communities engaged. a call to rodriguez who was critical to helping support this and congressman scott has been a cosinor on this. so as i said at the beginning, the only thing i would like for you to know, along with these other sets of policy recommendations, an area that is often not recognized. there is a science and evidence behind integrated student services provision. cis, communities in schools is just a model. marion said something important. programs don't make good policy. when you can point to scaled examples of a strategy, translated, you have a good
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combination. they are great examples across the country how they work closing the achievement gap and improving student achievement. thanks. >> thank you. you've heard a lot, special assistant to the president for education, roberto rodriguez. >> thank you, mr. chairman. it's a real pleasure to join you. i appreciate the invitation. it's also a great honor to join wonderful friends, colleagues and leaders in this work on the panel. i will try to be brief. i think the audience has heard a great deal of good recommendations in terms of how we can advance this charge of closing the achievement gap. first the question of whether that's still our imperative. it must be our imperative nationally to narrow and eventually close the achievement gap. it must be our economic imperative given the new demands of a new workforce in this new century and the fact that high quality education today is no
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longer just a predictor of future success. it really is a prerequisite. we're in an era that demands we prepare young folks for workforce in the future. it's a moral imperative and continues to be a moral imperative of our test of a strong democracy, our ability to deliver equity, fairness, and ton to all our citizens. really hinges on our ability to provide a high-quality public education for all of our young people certainly it must be our work moving forward. let me venture to ideas and thoughts, familiar, ones you've heard heard the administration talk about before, we've touched on here. before getting into that piece,
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the work around closing the achievement gap i think really must start early, must begin at birth where learning begins and return to dr. day's comments on the importance of a high-quality early childhood education to our children's future success. we have 11 million children spending sometime out of home, child care, state funded pre-k or another early settings. regardless of where they spend time the quality of that setting matters greatly. the quality of that relationship the child spends in the relationship that child forges with adults is really what drives better outcomes. and we know that high-quality early childhood education, high-quality learning environments really pay off not only economically as you heard the data also students learning
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and advancement later in school. the reduced need for special education. increased in gaugement, academic achievement all attributed to high-quality early plerng 0 to 5. really think we need to begin the work there and launch a race to the top in early learning to challenge our states, challenge our communities to do better in terms of the scope of services they provide our young people before they reach kindergarten, to do better in terms of the standards as well as outcomes and results we're looking for for our youngest children 0 to 5 and do better around access, particularly for disadvantaged children. we've done that work through the launch of the challenge fund across our administration and interagency effort across department of education and
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health and human services to challenge states to join in a federal partnership around advancing opportunity for our youngest kids 0 to 5. and certainly in k to 12 education, we really should begin this real quick with standards, which are the foundational element around reform across the country where we know we need to do better and we need to ensure we have higher, clearer, more relevant and more meaningful standards for learning for all our students that really shape curricula, shape the experience students have in our schools. and we know really we have a lot of work to do there. we've had a race to the bottom in terms of the quality of standards across the country. the most recent work out of the national center for education statistics really quantitifies this gap we see between our
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highest performing states around what's expected of our children in terms of what they should know and do. lowest performing states we have gaps that amount to 60, 70 points in 4th grade reading, 8th grade math in terms of expectations. that has to change. we also need a more meaningful assessment program that's aligned to those standards. so much of our ability to move forward on reform hinges on high-quality assessments that are real measures of success and real measures of progress and growth of our young people. that must come with the standards of work as well. second we need to focus on teachers. you've heard a great deal of great recommendations across the panel on this work and here in particular we need to focus on equity as well as effectiveness. we need to level distribution and make sure that our young
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people that need our most talented teachers most have access to them. we also need to do more around teacher effectiveness and acknowledging that teaching is a critical profession and improvement of teaching, the ongoing learning of our teachers is something we must at the federal level and state level support. so that means new mechanisms to improve the knowledge and skills of our existing teaching workforce, new mechanisms to them them differentiate, no mechanisms that lend to coupes so when the door closes, a teacher isn't left alone and without any support in terms of improving achievement for their students. the third point i'd like to make is on using data to drive and
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improve instruction. here we've taken a strong look at the existing state of data systems across the country. data is not always the most exciting part of education reform, but it's also critically important to our ability to move forward. providing feedback and ability to improve instruction and make important decisions about responding to students' learning and their needs but also important decisions to inform decision making at the local level and state level around how we're supporting this work of closing the achievement gap. and then finally the fourth point on really intervening and improving achievement in our struggling schools. amy put it well. we have 13,000 schools that have been identified under no child's
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left behind's rubric needing improvement. our work does not end with labeling, identifying a school. it begins with that identification of the need to address the problem, then we need real coherent strategy and an all hands on deck approach to approve achievement in those schools. that's more meaningful school improvement plans, doing more to transform teaching andág%gr$)g$r
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and we have only two-third of our students that are walking across that gymnasium stage and reaching their diploma in four years. that certainly needs to change. then moving into college, we really are focused on doing more not only to open the doors of access to higher education but also to focus on the challenge of persistence and completion. and the president has challenged us all by the end of the next decade to again lead the world in the proportion of college graduates that requires a real change in how we do business at the federal level in terms of supporting college completion, providing more meaningful
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advising, more meaningful individualized support for our students even into higher education and ensuring our systems are structured to really track individual student progress throughout higher education and help get us all to the goal of ensuring our completing competitive education for all of our young people. so with that thank you. look forward to any q&a. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. please give our panelists a round of applause. this is just great information. [ applause ] do we have any questions? do we have any questions of our panelists? yes, sir. >> whenever there is a hurricane
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or brush fire or disaster, the president has the opportunity to declare an disaster area and pump money into the repairs. why is it not possible to declare an education disaster? >> the question, when i had the privilege of serving in the congress, i actually sat on the committee of fema, that oversaw fema, disaster relief, you're absolutely right. what we have here, perhaps the tragedy has been this has not been the kind of disaster that has swept in a dramatic way one night and knocked over and wiped thousands of people out of their homes. this has been more like a disease that has crept along and
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steadily consumed large numbers. but the reality is that it has both morally, equitably and economically and i might add from a national security standpoint every aspect of a disaster like you mentioned. i have been encouraged, the president in his initiative, the first time in a major stimulus package going all the way back to the depression, the first time i've ever seen the amount of effort and intensity put into the education, $100 billion out of almost $800 billion stimulus package. it actually exceeds what goes into some of the traditional means. so to me obama administration and congress, in an education economy education is the main currency and must be treated in a massive way. points out his predecessor secretary had $17 million of discretionary money.
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secretary duncan has 10 billion. the key is to make sure it's in line with what's been talked about on this panel that's used strategically and effectively. other questions? yes, sir. >> want to say how grateful we are for your leadership and the outstanding panel. congressman working with you steadily to advance this issue, of course to continue to be concerned about this. one of the issues we had asked, whether or not violence as we see it play out on our streets may have anything to do with veeence played out on the television screens and the radio stations and video game cartridges and video game screens. we want to find out whether your panel may agree we need to
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perhaps study this issue as well as the issue of the lack of males in our household that may have been an unintended consequence of the reforms. wonder whether or not there might be ways in which we can create intervention in that respect that addresses the issues of confidence in the home without the removal of men from the households. i understand that's particularly an issue with native americans. but if your panelists could address those points, we appreciate it. again, chairman scott, we appreciate your leadership. >> thank you. >> who wants to go first? >> i'm not sure that the -- let me back up on your question a
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little bit. there's no that the cultural carriers in the united states have profound affects on the communities. let me spin ahead on your question and show where we see beacons of hope. one of the most community resources are the faith-based communities where you have extraordinarily storm ethics about community values transmitted across families and they spilled over to communities. you see mentoring programs, folks helping each other out when a fire definite states a family. in there lies an important element to me, there are institutions across the united states which can be vehicles for weaving communities together. so instead of looking for the symptoms of the problems, i think an asset approach with kids is a terrific opportunity. we have a program in community schools in austin, not far from
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your congresswoman's district called the xy zone where we intentionally use successful young men of color as peer mentors. they partner with the school system to bring on other young men of color and it's a great gang prevention strategy. instead of video games and violence in the community, which seems to be distracting, there are enormous centers of opportunity to build off of. it seems a less distracting way to really drive sets of models and transformation forward. that's how we would approach that, i think. just kind of off the top of my head. >> i'd just like to mention two things around that. obviously you've raised the point about addressing directly the levels of violence kids are exposed to and that's appropriate that we need to deal with it at the source and in the
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ways in the media and so on. within the school there is a lot 1 can do. i co-founded a school in california which has had the dubious distinction of being the murder capital of the united states for several years running in the 1990s. and we put in place in the school and others we've worked with social and emotional learning programs where kids and teachers and parents all learn the same strategies for how to manage conflict, how to work together, how to interact and putting that across the school and creating a very -- not only a safer environment in the school bah safer environment in the home and some strategies that can spread in the community. there's evidence from a number of studies from social emotional learning programs that you get both strong increases in student achievement and changes in the levels of violence and vandalism in schools when you can do schoolwide interventions like
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that that basically start from the point of view that we're going to teach everyone how to work with strategies for managing their attention, their interactions and so on rather than going into a punitive zero tolerance approach, which is ending up pushing more kids out of school into the streets, into the arms of the gangs and then into another cycle of violence. i think we have to think about that carefully. there is a bill that's been introduced in the house by the congressman to support those kinds of programs and that's a small piece of the puzzle. >> we have worked with different school also who have adopt successful programs to reduce violence in the school. one of the programs, it's a pilot program in philadelphia. the high school was one of the
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school that considered a dangerous school a few years ago. the good thing is that the principal and assistant principal reach out to different community organizations and community leader and also parent and student themselves. so to give the voice to the students for them to speak up about what's happening and for them to create, to have a dialogue among themselves. what are the issues, what can they do, what other adults do to help support them and really addressing those issues. sometimes not having the opportunity to discuss about differences and understanding of different culture background and languages, students tend to pick on each other. so the understand of the difference is, where they are coming from, different values students have, now they formed a welcoming squad, meet regularly, discuss about the issue with the support of our community
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organization in the school and school administrator and parent and student themselves. they work together to kind of address the issue and promote peace within the school. so that's just one example that i think we can take into consideration. >> i think your question suggested if there's violence going on in the school, it's going to be hard to get much going on. that's why education on youth violence is important. we're fortunate to work together to get the bill out of judiciary committee, now is considered to be in the education and labor committee. we're optimistic about the youth progress act. it's co-sponsors more than half the house. if we can get it, keep it progressing along, i'm sure we can get it out of the house, but the senate is a totally different question. but i think the youth violence is an area that we focused on with a comprehensive approach.
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we're looking forward to making a great deal of difference on that. yes, ma'am. >> i wanted to thank you also for recognizing native american communities do struggle with this issue. it is a large one. i'd also like to point out for anyone interested, "the new york times" ran an article today about the rise of gangs on reservation, particularly pine ridge reservation, which is actually in some ways has a higher homicide rate than most urban cities but most people don't recognize that for us i'd like to echo what's been said by my colleagues. strength comes from communities. values that held our communities together for centuries are the things that also help prevent violence and help give hope. but education is a critical piece to any of this. without those access points on a reservation with 63% unemployment your options are extremely limited even when you try to walk a good and healthy
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path. it takes a variety and combination of programs of the community finding your way as the identity of who you are. i'd like to acknowledge there are really incredible models, national indian leadership project that operates out of new mexico has done incredible work for the past 30 years starting in middle school with students teaching them good decision making skills, empowering them in experiencial education. as they move through high school and college they have a core foundation of knowing what it looks like to be a healthy person and what it looks like to be academically successful and they are trained as they go through this program to become peers that support each other. so if their families are not necessarily able to give them the support that they need, they know they belong to a larger community, that grandmother's and grandfather's may not be the people you're by logically related to but they are the
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people that care about you in any of the communities you walk through. i do see a lot of points of hope. we do need to recognize violence is an issue but something that can't be solved by one approach or one resemple. thank you. >> thank you. and i want to again thank our panel is for the great presentation. this panel and other panels. give another round of applause. [ applause ] >> i also want to thank my staff for putting together this great panel that i didn't do any of the work. peter, david, elana, and a couple of others who put a lot of work into this. i think it was well worth the effort. we know from the first panel there's a legal basis for challenging the achievement gap. we talked about a private right of action but certainly the federal government can take action on dealing with the achievement gap from a legal perspective. we heard from civil rights
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leaders that say there's civil rights implications in allowing achievement gap to persist. we heard from this panel, we know a lot of t >> that are cost-effective in limiting the achievement gap and continuing to work together, we hope when we reauthorize the esea, that we're going to eliminate the achievement gap. thank you very much. [applause] >> american icons, three
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original documentaries from c-span now available on dvd. a unique journey through the iconic homes of the three branches of the american government. see the detail of the supreme court through the eyes of the justices. go beyond the velvet ropes of public tours into those rarely seen spaces of the white house. america's most famous home. and explore the history, art and architecture of the capitol. you know, with of america's most symbolic structures. american icons, a three-disk dvd set. it's $24.95 plus shipping and handling. order online at >> now a look at the nation's energy outlook for the next 25 years. the energy department's information administrator is about to give his forecast for u.s. energy supplies and the expected demand. from johns hopkins university school of advanced international studies, this is about an hour 10 minutes.
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>> good morning. i'm beau cohen. welcome to the special forum. we're delighted to host this morning's speaker. administrator of u.s. information agency. in fact, this is the beginning of our collaboration with eia and in the new year we will be collaborating in april, in 2010, in our workshop, which is -- the information of which is available online so please go to the eia website and check the conference. and we look forward to seeing you there. the doctor is on leave from his
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position as the gendel associate professor of environmental economics at duke university school of the environment. prior to his confirmation as the administrator of eia, he's known as a leader scholar specializing in energy and environmental issues with tremendous expertise and experience in government, university, and the think tank world. he spent many years as senior fellow, as part of a nonpartisan environment and economic institution? washington, d.c. he also served as the senior economist for energy and environment on the president's council of economic advisors. the doctor was research associate of the national bureau of economic research, university fellow of rff and on several boards including the journal of environmental economics and
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management, the journal energy economics, the association of environmental and resource economists, the automotive prize and he's also served on several boards. several national academy of science expert committees related to energy, environment and innovation. the doctor holds a ph.d. from harvard university in environmental and resource economics. he also holds a master in public affairs from princeton's woodrow wilson school of public international affairs and two bachelor degrees. one in material engineering and another in philosophy from rutgers university. without further ado, ladies and gentlemen welcome the professor. [applause] >> thank you very much and thanks to the global energy and
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environment initiative at johns hopkins school of advanced international studies for hosting us today for the presentation of the annual energy outlook 2010. it was a very kind introduction. one thing i want to say -- to begin with, what i'll be presenting today is the annual energy outlook reference case, which is going to be one of many alternative cases that the energy information administration will be producing and releasing in march of 2010 when it releases the full energy outlook so we will be giving the reference case today. but that will be supplemented by many cases reflecting some of the key different scenarios and uncertainties that we do in doing u.s. energy protections looking out several decades into the future. before i get into the energy projection details i want to say a bit about some of the background conditions which enter into our analysis. in the analysis, between 2008
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and 2035, u.s. real gross domestic product is assumed to increase at an average annual rate at 2.4% in the projections. but nonetheless the recession will have a lasting impact on the projections which you will see in some of the slides. as a result, gross domestic product does not reach -- return to 2008 levels until 2011 in the projections. total primary energy consumption does not reach 2008 levels until 2012. and total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions do not reach 2008 levels again until 2019 in the projections. population is assumed to grow at roughly 2.9%. the labor force by .6% and productivity 2% per year annual average between 2008 and 2035. so just to make clear exactly
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what the eia annual energy outlook 2010 reference case represents, it's important to understand how we incorporate different assumptions about public policy and technology into the reference case. first of all, the reference case generally assumes currently laws and regulations. what this means is that laws, statutes, and regulations that have reached a stage where they have been finalized or are sufficiently well defined that we can incorporate them into the projections, they are in there. provisions in law, if they sunset, they do, in fact, sunset in this reference case projections. renewable tax credits expire as they are stipulated by current law. the projections excludes also potential future laws and regulations. an important one of relevance is greenhouse gas regulations or future greenhouse gas
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legislation which has not yet been passed into law is not included in this reference case projection. there are some gray areas where it's difficult to draw the line. one is that if we have a statute which has set out a target, for example, for fuel economy and we have some proposed regulation that is may not yet be finalized but help us interpret that statute then we will include them and we'll see that when we get to the fuel economy slide. in addition, over the several years, eia analysts have seen changes in market behavior as a result of expectations about what might happen with future greenhouse gas regulation. this was such a significant market behavioral change that we actually saw it reflected in investment behavior and so we have incorporated that into our projection in the form of the premium of the investment capital cost of c02 intensive technologies. in addition, we do assume that
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there is implementation of existing regulations and permanent mating processes to facilitate the continued extraction of facilities around the country. with regard to technologies, the reference case projection includes technologies that are either currently commercially available or are -- can reasonably be expected in the next decade or so in terms of technological change over time, this suite of technologies does tend to fall in terms of cost as learning occurs through deployment of existing and new technologies. but the reference case projection does not include breakthrough or revolutionary technologies that might present themselves over the next several decades simply because if we do not have sufficient technical or economic clarity on what the availability and cost of technologies would be, we cannot incorporate them into the projection. one might think of this as a
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relatively conservative approach to the handling of regulation and technology, but it's very useful in that it facilitates analysis of policy relative to that baseline. so, for example, if there was a new regulation or a new policy one can see how that compares to our reference case scenario and look at the difference. we have done this and others have done this using our national energy modeling system on many occasions. some key updates to the annual energy outlook 2010 relative to last year. first of all, we've extended the time horizon of the projection to 2035 over the last several years it had been to 2030. in addition we have some changes in federal and state laws and regulations. as i mentioned in the previous slide we have a revised handling of corporate fuel energy standards to reflect the proposed regulation of light duty vehicles for model years to 2012 to 2016. in addition, we assume that
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permission will be granted for extension of nuclear power unit operating licenses beyond 60 years and as an implication of this there are no retirements in our projection of nuclear power plants through 2035. i'll say more about this a bit later. in addition, we have revised capital costs for certain capital-intensive projects particularly nuclear power and coal power costs up approximately 10 to 20% in the projections reflecting changes -- a trend over the last several years of increasing costs of these types of large scale capital projects. and finally changes to the assumptions in our oil and natural gas resource base, an updated characterization of resource basis which well, see reflected in evolution shale gas technology and resource-base. in addition we've incorporated a new lower 48 onshore oil and gas supply submodule in the context
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of changes -- long term changes that will be evolving over the next several years. i'm not getting is here. where am i aiming this? [inaudible] >> so turning now in the oil price projections. the oil price, this is representation of an imported, low sulfur crude oil increases steadily over the projection. the crude oil prices rises reaching $133 per barrel. that's in 2008 real dollars by the end of the projection in
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2035. that's $224 per barrel of nominal dollars. this is slightly lower price for crude oil than the annual energy outlook 2009, last year's projection, due to somewhat greater supply and demand responsiveness to price changes than we had previously been assuming. fade anyw [inaudible] >> all right. we're back. [laughter] >> this is as a result of a growth in global oil demand as the world economy rebounds and household incomes continue to grow. access limitations and resource-rich nonopec countries continue to restrain growth in nonopec liquids production and in this reference case crude oil prices, opec is assumed to
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maintain a relatively constant market share of about 40% of total world liquids production. recognizing that oil prices are highly uncertain and volatile, the full annual outlook 2010 will include a wide range of oil prices spanning to the low oil price to the high oil price. each of these oil price cases representatives a consistent scenario. the difference across these scenarios are primarily associated with opec behavior in terms of market share and access to nonopec oil resources. in the high oil price case, where oil -- real oil prices get above $200 per barrel by the end of the forecast period, market share for opec falls below 40% to about 35% and nonopec-resource rich countries further restrict economic access to the resources. in contrast in the low oil price
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case, the opec share increases. opeek supply is available and opec resource rich countries improves relative to the reference case. this, of course, does not encompass all possible oil price possibilities but we think does represent a plausible range of scenarios that might be encountered in the future. turning now to the relationship between oil and natural gas prices, the ratio of crude oil to natural gas prices remains historically high throughout the projection. from 1986 to 2005, the oil to natural gas price ratio averaged 1.7 with light sweet crude oil valid about 70% premium to that of natural gas. measured through the henry hub applies i'm sorry, measured through u.s. natural gas prices. since 2005, the oil gas price
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has increased to 3 and a barrel of oil is now trading at roughly three times the value of natural gas when you compare them on an energy equivalent basis which is what we're doing in this chart. the annual energy outlook 2010 reference case projection assumes that this high ratio will continue into the future. now, there's a number of driving forces behind this continued relatively high -- oil to natural gas ratio. one is a growing worldwide demand for transportation fuels and costs and limited access to supply. another is robust american natural gas supply relative to demand which would moderate natural gas prices. another is a structural shift away from residual fuel. and other fuels for power generation. another is competition between natural gas and coal in electricity production which is very sensitive to prices. so overall we see the more relevant margin for substitution
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looking ford is assuming more between gas and coal and gas and oil which is the high ratio of approximately 3 to 1 between the oil to gas price. nonetheless, there is uncertainty in this. there's potential of increased natural gas as a substitute for petroleum in transportation uses and/or a feed stock to gas to liquids conversion. however, market penetration of natural gas vehicles has so far been limited primarily to centrally fueled transit vehicles such as commuter buses and is limited by limitations to driving range capability and also incremental costs for technology. in addition, the spread on the gas to liquid side, the spread is 3 to 1 spread between oil and gas prices we don't see as sufficient to incentivize gas to liquid production in the united states.
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turning now to the -- to the big picture of primary energy consumption, this chart shows in quadrillion btuj where we put all the different pieces of the energy system into a consistent units over the last several years, the primary energy consumption in the united states has been 100 quadrillion btus and during the recession it's dropped from that. but looking forward through 2035, we see primary energy consumption rising about 14% to 115 quadrillion btus from 2008 levels. as a point of reference, 100 quads is about 50 million barrels per day in oil equivalent terms. the fossil fuel share of energy consumption in the projection falls from 84% which is what it was in 2008 to 78% in 2035. renewable energy consumption climbs rapidly over this
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projection is over 2.3 times higher at the end of the projection period than in 2008. this is due to a number of different factors. one is extension of key federal tax credits and grants and loan programs through the american recovery and reinvestment act which have occurred over the last several years and will have lasting impact. another is state requirements for renewable energy generation particularly in the form of renewable portfolio standards at the state level and another is implementation of federal renewable fuel standards for transportation fuels, which we'll see more about in a moment. the total u.s. consumption of liquid fuels primary for transportation grows 13% in the projection between 2008 and 2035. biofuels account for most of the net growth in liquids consumption. we'll actually see that petroleum overall is roughly flat. coal consumption, mostly for electric power generation grows 12% over the projection period
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but coal consumption was lower than it was in our projection last year. it was one quad lower, due to lower energy consumption in the new projection and due to lower gas prices and higher coal capital costs. in the projection natural gas consumption rises 7% over 2008 levels by 2035. and this is mainly for power generation and commercial buildings. nuclear generation grows 11% between 2008 and 2035 due primarily to the addition of 8 gigawatts of additional nuclear power in the projection. this next slide shows trends over time both historically and looking forward over the projection period in the use of energy and the emissions of carbon dioxide per dollar of gross domestic product. these are measures of either the energy intensity or the c02
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intensity of the economy and shows per capita energy use in slides. since 1992, the energy intensity of the u.s. economy has declined on average by about 1.9% every year. we can see this in the downward trend over the slide. economic output of the service sector has grown 2 1/2 faster than the more intensive energy sector. the share of total shipments has fallen from about 28% in 1992 to 22% in 2008. this is a key driver of the declining energy intensity of the u.s. economy. the energy intensity in this slide is measured as thousand btus of energy use per dollar of gross domestic product. it declines by 40% over the projection from 2008 to 2035. in the referenced case. industrial share -- the industrial share of shipments we're assuming will continue to decline to 18% in 2035.
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and we'll also see increased energy efficiency in buildings and transportation, which also adds to the decline in energy intensity. c02 emissions per dollar of g.d.p. also declined over the projection by about 40% by 2035. u.s. population increases in the projection by 28% but energy consumption only increases by about 14%. so this also leads to a decline in the energy use per capita which is somewhat different than we've seen historically but looking forward we are seeing a decline in also per capita energy use by about .4% per year. this next slide decomposes changes over time in the energy intensity of the economy into two pieces, what we call structural change and efficiency change. energy efficiency in recent years has increased renewed attention. one is higher energy prices than we had been seeing and the other
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is a recognition that large ux ares in greenhouse gas emissions probably can't be accomplished without improvement in energy efficiency. historically three-quarters of the improvement in energy intensity, has come from structural changes that i alluded to in the previous slide. the annual energy outlook 2010 expects this trend to continue without improvement in energy intensity total primary energy consumption in the u.s. economy would grow from about 100 quadrillion btus in 2008 to over 100,000 quadrillion. and we see it increase as shown in the structural change brackets there. and we see efficiency improvements lowering consumption by about 20 quadrillion btus. looking forward we see energy efficiency improvements to reluctances in energy
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consumption so that by the end of the period energy consumption is 15% lower than it otherwise would be without those efficiency improvements. efficiency here is things like technological improvements and fuel economy of different types of automobiles, increased appliance efficiency in buildings, building codes where the shift is from manufacturing to the service sector is the biggest component of that. turning now to liquid fuels, there was a time when we used to refer to this as petroleum but given the increased use of biofuels in the transportation fleet as a major source of liquid fuels we call it liquid fuels and to be clear and broader in our definition. total liquids consumption growth is growing by 13% from 19.5 million barrels per day to 2008 to $24 million. this diagram is showing million
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barrels of day in liquids both historically back to 1970 and 2035. another point i should make in these slides there's a vertical line at 2008 which separates historical data from our projections, okay? so 2008 is the last year of, you know, data and the part to the right is the projections looking forward. total domestic liquid supply including biofuels along with petroleum grows 44% from 8.3 million barrels per day in 2008 to 20 million barrels per day in 2035 in the projection. as a result u.s. reliance on imported oil is projected to decline significantly over the next 20 years from the peak in the 2005/6 period to 2035. you have production growing. consumption is somewhat higher and production is somewhat lower.
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you can see the solid lines. the dash line is looking at the energy outlook 2009 forecast, the projection is what we had for last year. but this is due to somewhat lower projected prices. we have higher consumption and lower production relative to last year. decomposing a bit the supply side of this we see increased use of bio fuels using most of the increase of use of fuels as petroleum as the source of liquid fuels remaining flat. gross in domestic production comes in roughly equal shares from biofuels and from petroleum. u.s. crude oil production increases from 5 million barrels a day in 2008 to 6.4 million barrels a day in 2028 and remains over 6 million barrels a day in the projection through 2035.
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growth in crude oil production results primarily from increased offshore production in the gulf of mexico and increased onshore production in the lower 48 states using enhanced oil recovery, which is economically attractive under the oil price projections. a small amount of oil shale production shale shows in the reference price in 2023 and grows modestly thereafter. , however, this is one of the more uncertain areas of the forecast because heretofore we don't have oil from shale but when you get up to the price levels that we have in the projection, it does become economically attractive but again, this is still in the pilot stage of demonstration and so it's one of the more uncertain areas. it doesn't get to a huge amount but it is there noticeable in the projection toward the end. ethanol use grow he is from 10 billion gallons in 2008 to 19.8 billion gallons. almost tripling over the projections. so this is very significant. by the end of the projection
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ethanol compridess about 18% of total gasoline consumption by volume. e85 grows rapidly. this is ethanol blended in a ratio of 85% ethanol to 15% gasoline requires a special vehicle to run it. e85 grows7>÷ rapidly in later ys to meet the renewable fuel standard which i'll dig down to a little bit more in a moment. by 2035, roughly half of ethanol is consumed in e85 in the form of e85 and half in the form of e10, which is 14 billion gallons going into each of those different types of fuel mixes. biomass to liquids increases in later years as well. this next slide is digging down into the biofuel trends over the projection particularly in the context in the renewable fuel
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standard which is a key driver of biofuels expansion. although biofuels do grow dramatically in the 2010 reference case, the reference case achieves just over 25 billion a gallon equivalents by 2022 which is short of the 36 billion gallons called for in the renewable fuel statute. this is somewhat lower in our rejection last year which you can see in the two middle bars which is our energy outlook 2010 projection for renewable fuels and next to it so we have a somewhat lower total by about 3 billion gallons less. the main reason for this is the slow rate at which second generation sell lossic biofuels are being brought into the market. the renewable fuel standard
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mandate calls for more in 2022. but the projects under development are experiencing delays or in some cases cancellation. there's currently one plan under construction and one nearing the construction phase. it would take 27 cell lossic w 5 capacity, and the target will be achieved and 43 billion gallons are projected by 2035 however this will be somewhat later than is stipulated in the statute. now, the reference here to rfs with adjustments under caa section 211 reflects the ability of the environmental protection agency to grant waivers on an annual basis through 2015 and after 2015 to adjust the overall targets downward. in the projections we are in effect assuming that will have to occur. but again as things unfold we
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will see weather, in fact, that will occur.7l the next slide is focusing on another aspect of the transportation fleet namely the vehicles that are using these fuels, fuel economy standards are an important factor moderating growth in liquid fuels consumption in the projection. transportation dominates liquid fuels and a transportation share grows from 71% in 2008 to 75% in 2035, other key uses of liquid fuels are industry and for things like home heating. the annual energy outlook 2010 is assuming the adoption of the cafe standards jointly proposed by the environmental protection agency. and the national highway transportation and safety administration within the department of transportation for model years 2012 through 2016. what this does it accelerates the fuel economy improvements that had already been included in the annual energy outlook in
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prior years because it was -- it was included in a statute, the energy independence and security act of 2007 had set a target of 35 combined mile per gallon target by 2020. and so what you see in the forecast -- in the projection is the red line showing the annual energy outlook 2010 and then what you see is the blue dashed line is the updated annual energy outlook 2009 outlook case we're essentially bringing fuel economy down -- i'm sorry, we're bringing fuel economy up, therefore, accelerating the fuel economy but in the end it's achieving similar levels but they had already been put forward in statute. now, as a result of these fuel economy standards and also the biofuel standards, the annual energy outlook 2010 increase reflects the increase in unconventional technologies to use the biofuels and use the improved fuel economy.
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the share of unconventional vehicle technologies increases from 13% in 2008 to 49% of sales by the end of the projection period so this slide is focusing just on the nonconventional vehicle part of the mix. hybrid and diesel vehicles increase to almost 30% market share by 2035 in the projection. hybrid vehicles increased from 2.6% of the new light duty vehicle sales in 2008 to about one-quarter of sales in 2035. in microhybrid sales is to be in 2020 but its cost for battery systems and other factors improve over time. standard hybrids go to grow of 37% of hybrid sales by 2035. plug-in hybrid vehicles sales grow from 90,000 per year in
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2015 to about 500,000 per year in 2035 at which point they are 2.6% of light duty vehicle -- new light duty vehicle sales. flex-fuel vehicles which are vehicles that can run on a blend on e85 ethanol have a market share but there are a loss of cafe credits as that expires under current law and also the attainment of the renewable fuel standard mandate. one issue that has garnered some attention is a question about when flex-fuel vehicles will be needed. one issue that relates to is when the e10 blend wall will be reached which is at what point in time will you mid-60s all the ethanol you can into existing gasoline thereby saturating the e10 market. and if you need to go for a renewable standard you need increase the e85 and return e85
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vehicles in a projection we see this blend wall being reached in approximately 2011, maintained over several years but after 2015 we see increased -- significantly increased need for e85 and, therefore, increased penetration of flex-fuel vehicles which is showing up here in the red bars in the projection. the natural gas well head prices are assumed to recover from the recession-induced low levels over the last year. in the 2010 reference case. and they increase steadily for the remainder of the projection from under $5 per 1,000 cubic feet to about $8 per 1,000 cubic feet by the end of the projection period. the annual energy outlook of 2010 is projecting prices that are somewhat below last year's projections due to higher production of shale gas represented in the annual energy outlook 2010.
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by 2030, natural gas well head price is 11% below the price that had been projected in last year's projection. turning to the consumption and production of natural gas, u.s. natural gas consumption grows 7% from 23.3 trillion cubic feet to almost 25 trillion cubic feet in the reference case. after initially falling to about 21 trillion cubic feet in 2014 due to near term coal and renewable electricity construction which is underway. domestic gas production grows at 13% from 20.6 to 23.3 trillion cubic feet in the projection over the same period. as a result, projected reliance on natural gas imports declines from 13% in 2008 to 6% in 2035.
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the decline in imports was not dramatic in last year's projection where net imports declined to 2% in 2030. this change reflects a couple of things. one is a recognition that there's significant shale gas resources in canada, which is our key source of natural gas imports. which, therefore, if that's available, that can support continued natural gas imports from canada. also, domestic consumption is somewhat higher and production is somewhat lower than last year's projection due to somewhat lower projected natural gas prices. this next slide is he looking at the natural gas resource base as well as the reserve base in the united states. this is showing in trillion cubic feet technical recoverable resources which are defined as the mean estimate of gas that is technically producible using currently available technologies and industry practices.
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in contrast reserves are resources but they have to be proven to be recoverable under current economic conditions namely production and extract cost. the bottom is the proof reserves the other bars are unproved resources both conventional and unconventional shale which is methane. natural resource gas base have grown remarkably with resource gas growing over sixfold in the next ten years. this is due to application of advances in horizontal drilling to shales which have made these resources accessible. u.s. -- as a result u.s. natural gas reserves grew 3% last year and are now at the highest levels since eia began reporting these reserves in 1977. shale gas reserves grew 51% last year even at a time of falling natural gas prices.
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turning to this natural gas supply picture, we see that shale gas provides most of the domestic production increase in the projection. growing fourfold and compridesing 26% of u.s. dry gas production by 2035. shale gas supply increases rapidly with rising prices and technology improvement offsetting declines in other supply. so you can see were it not for the shall gas in alaska, if you look at the top above methane you would see a decline in profile. as i just mentioned the alaska natural gas pipeline is projected to come online by 2023 in the projection bringing stranded gas from alaska down from the lower 48. however, large scale project -- there's a large scale project that's contingent on natural gas prices, project financing and construction on certainties so
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it's an area of risk in the forecast. turning to electricity, the projection shows a long-term trend in electricity demand continuing over the next couple decades. the rate of growth in electricity consumption has declined from almost 10% per year in the 1950s to 2.4% per year in the 1990s and only .9% per year so far this decade. the annual energy outlook 2010 reference case expects slow demand growth to continue for electricity. this is due to a combination of high electricity prices and also recently enacted standards for lighting, air conditioning, clothes washers and several other appliances which are used in buildings which are reflected in the projections. total energy consumption in the reference case nonetheless grows 30% from 2008 to 2035 or an average rate of 1% annually.
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nonetheless, there's uncertainties in this projection, of course, especially in the energy intensive electricities. so it would tend -- if that happened increase demand for electricity and reduced demand for petroleum relative to what we have in the reference chase however, we don't see this at this point in time alternating the reference case. one example it might give to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is that each 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles charged once daily would add 5 terra watt consumption compared to the projection in 2035. so there's a lot of interest in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles but even with significant penetration of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the projection at least over the next couple
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decades we don't see it substantially alternating the projection of electricity production. turning to electricity capacity generation. there will be new electricity capacity needs and it will be met predominantly with a combination of natural gas and new new hydroelectric renewable technologies. the extended tax credits over the last several years funding the american recovery and reinvestment act otherwise known as the stimulus bill and also state renewable portfolio standards provide additional support for renewable technologies. the combination of lower natural gas prices and growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions have dampened interests in contrast to new coal capacity. most of the coal -- there are nonetheless coal capacity additions in the projection but most of those that are included, it's about 31 gigawatts of new coal capacity over the
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projection are already planned and under construction so we see those actually taking place in the near term rather than primarily the long term. in addition, an increase in the estimated cost of new nuclear power plants has reduced our projection of new nuclear builds in the referenced case from 11 gigawatts over the projection period to 8.4 gigawatts or roughly six plants. this next slide continues to focus on electricity but rather than at capacity we're looking at generation measured in billion of kilowatt hours and for the vertical lines of 2008 and those are shares of the different sources of electricity in overall generation and at the end of the projection period. sticking with nuclear for a moment, while we see nuclear capacity increasing somewhat over the projection, the share of nuclear power generation
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declines from 20% in 2008 to 17% by 2035. in terms of coal, we see increases in coal generation are expected to be slow and its generation also declines from recent levels. so we're going to be working from the bottom to the top on this slide.5io÷ natural gas share of generation also falls slightly over the next several decades due to relatively slow growth in electricity demand and completion of coal plants under construction and additions of renewable energy capacity. however, by 2035, we see the share of natural gas returning to roughly its historic level of recent level of 20%. the biggest part of growth in this story is renewable electricity generation shows by far the strongest growth between now and 2035 spurred by incentive programs i had mentioned before. renewable share of generation is expected to grow from 9% of
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generation in 2008 to 17% of total electricity generation by 2035. the share of total generation of renewables other than hydropower grows from 3% in 2008 to almost 11% in 2035. so the nonhydro is wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and so then. -- so on. we'll focus on this in the next slide. in terms of nonhydrorenewable projections we see biomass and wind contributing the largest share of growth in nonhydrorenewable electricity generation. wind generation increases by more than fourfold over the projection period while biomass generation increases more than seven fold in our projection. also note the reference case does not assume the extension of production tax credits after 2012 because they expire in an existing statute so you can see this with wind where you see a rapid increase continuing over the the next few years but in 2012 it starts to flatten out.
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that's because the production tax credit in the reference case is assumed to expire as stipulate lated in current law. a key factor here is state renewable portfolio standards and funds from the stimulus bill which continue to make new wind plants attractive. state renewable portfolio programs are also expected to make biomass production attractive when coal fired and coal powered plant so this is a dispatchable renewable match that you can mix with corporate so it's readily incorporated into the existing system. we see strong percentage growth in nonhydrorenewable generation from solar, which increases almost twelve fold in the projections worth between 2008 and 2035. this is driven by the extension of the tax credit and the removal under the cap which had limited payments for solutions to $2,000 which has in recent years have been lifted. this credit for solar runs through 2016.
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however, even with strong growth in solar, twelve fold increase in the projection period solar still only accounts for one-half of a percent of a generation in 2035. one thing i'll mention a key uncertainty in these projections is whether states will strictly enforce the renewable portfolio requirement which is we're analyzing the degree to which to incorporate state level renewable portfolio standards we do take account whether there's alternative compliance means in that he is standards and the investment funds available to support those standards and we do incorporate that but it's still a risk factor when you're looking at a couple decades. turning to energy-related carbon dioxide, which is a key element of u.s. gas greenhouse gas emissions which come from energy related c02. we see in this projection
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assuming no new policies to regulate energy related carbon dioxide emissions other than what is in current regulation these emissions would grow 8.7% between 2008 and 2035 or an annual rate at .3%. the projected energy related c02 emissions are slightly lower than last year's projection primarily due to lasting impact of the economic downturn which has been more severe than the forecast had been assuming last year. as a result, c02 emissions in the annual energy outlook 2010 and 2030 are 6.176 million -- i'm sorry. 6,176 million metric tons compared with 6,207 metric tons in last year's projections. emissions grow by 2.3% over 2008 and 2035 but per capita emissions fall by .6% each year.
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these doughnut slides -- they're also showing where energy-related carbon dioxide emissions come in the u.s. economy. it's roughly 41% from electric power. this is in 2008. one-third from transportation and about 26% direct use in buildings and transportation. so this would be nonelectricity direct use in those sources. another thing i want to mention on this slide is that the growth in the energy related emissions that are projected over this period are coming primarily from electric power and transportation sectors. c02 emissions from electricity generation, of course, depend on the rate of electricity sales growth and also the degree of electricity decarbonization. c02 emissions from transportation activity also slow compared to recent past due to the fuel economy standards we spoke about earlier.
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also higher fuel prices and rising biofuel costs. energy related c02 emissions in each of these sectors, the electricity sector and the transportation sector grow by just under .4% each year between 2008 and 2035. so to summarize some of the main messages of the annual energy outlook 2010 reference case, we find recent federal and state policies, which focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy tend to moderate energy consumption growth. nonetheless, we do see rising energy prices which also tend to moderate energy consumption growth. we also see a resulting shift toward renewable fuels. u.s. oil use we see remaining in the current levels through 2035 and growth in overall liquid consumption needs is met by bio
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fuels with ethanol counting for over 75% of gasoline consumption by 2035. as a result of this declining domestic production of liquid fuels and declining overall -- we see a reliance on imported oil declining over the projection period from its high of 60% a few years ago to 25 to 45% over the next 25 years. in addition, a key feature of the projections is shale gas increases, which we see providing the majority of growth in domestic natural gas supply over the next couple decades and c02 emissions growing by .3% per year. this is absent any additional policies that have not yet been passed or promulgated looking forward. thank you very much. i'd be happy to take any questions. [applause]
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>> we have somebody handling a microphone? yeah, i think we've got a question in the back. >> this report is coming out after the epa has issued its endangerment finding. and the epa clearly said they are moving forward whether congress moves or not. i know congress is a volatile question but epa under the obama administration has clearly says it is going to move forward. why did you not include c02 reductions from epa action? >> so the existing greenhouse gas regulations proposed by the environmental protection agency related to vehicles which is the joint proposal with the national traffic and highway standards have been incorporated. i think you're probably referring to additional actions that might be taken by the epa,
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which have not only not been finalized but haven't even been proposed in any form yet. and so we can only incorporate into our projections regulations that have either been finalized or close enough to finalization that we have the quantative ability to actually incorporate those and we do not have that for any other type of greenhouse gas regulation in the u.s. there's another question back here. >> michael from edf. i was wondering if you could speak a bit about the volatility analysis that you did on natural gas prices in particular and comparing the volatility of natural gas with oil and whether you expect volatility to increase or decrease in the future? >> yes.
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so beginning back in october, we began to incorporate into our short-term energy outlook not only forecasts of the henry hub natural gas price but also uncertainty bands around the nymex futures prices. this was a way for us to start quantifying the degree of uncertainty and volatility in both natural gas and crude oil prices. what we see looking over the next several months in terms of the short term outlook for natural gas -- while we see it ranging in the, you know, $5 per thousand cubic feet over the next several months on average for 2010, we see an average price in our last outlook of about $4.6 per thousand cubic feet but a very significant range of uncertainty on that. and even if you look over the
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next several months. if you put a probability interval of 95% confidence around these natural gas price forecast they could be down in the 3s or $6 per cubic feet and if you go down further you would see an even larger band. the market -- this is based on an analysis of nymex futures and options markets so the market is telling us that there is still considerable uncertainty in both natural gas and crude oil prices which is one of the reasons why both in our short-term projections and our long-term projections we look at a wide range of scenarios. >> hi. i'm with reuters. your forecast shows or you say that all demand will virtually be flat in the u.s., i was wondering or -- for the next few decades, i was wondering do you see them getting back to the peaks that were reached a couple of years ago? and if not do you feel it has peaked in the u.s.? >> right.
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well, we're focusing in terms of kuehntion we focus on liquid fuels because it's not petroleum that is meeting the needs for increasing transportation needs. so we do see the overall consumption of liquid fuels increasing over the projection but the portion of that that comes from petroleum both domestically supplied as well as imported is roughly flat so it will not -- we do not think it will go back to what previous levels had been. but nonetheless, the increase in domestic consumption of liquid fuels is primarily the -- the net is met primarily through biofuels both domestically as well as imported. there's one behind you. >> elliott roseman with icf international. in your first slide you mentioned there were technologies included that were commercial or reasonably expected to be commercial in the next decade. i wanted to ask specifically about some of the electricity
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technologies. could you say whether or not, for example, carbon captured storage on either of existing or new coal plants would be included? and whether or not electricity storage in general would be included in any of your projections? >> so, yes, we -- the model does include the availability of carbon capture and storage for electric power and also for large industrial sources of c02. i don't believe that we have any c02 capture at electric power plants -- we do? okay. so there's a modest amount in the reference case forecast particularly as you get out to the end years. the primary reason being not a greenhouse gas regulation but relatively high oil prices so there's a demand for carbon dioxide for use in enhanced oil recovery which currently exists. and we think that's sufficient getting toward the end of the forecast that you could actually see an increased demand for c02 which would capture c02 at
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certain sources even in a referenced case scenario without further greenhouse gas and it's not as large as one would see some of the pending climate regulation that has been proposed but that technology is certainly available as are other advanced technologies. i had also mentioned others like oil, shale, coal to liquids, gas to liquids. you know, geothermal. central soar power. -- solar power. there's quite a wide range of technologies in the forecast. >> i'm struck by the huge amount of growth you projected in biomass as a renewable source for electric generation. and i was wondering what is the driver that you see for that? >> yeah. a key driver for biomass in electricity generation are state level policies. these renewable portfolio standards which i last looked was 26 states. it's at least 26 states at this
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point. which have different targets over the next several decades for increasing share of renewable electricity generation. .. projection. particularly given the removal of the protection tax credit we're assuming. biomass is
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biomass which is dramatic, as you show on the slides. what form will this take? i mean, the public has the capacity to provide biomass in the form that's >> yes, we actually have a detailed representation of biomass feed stocks that underlie this expansion of biomass and electricity generation. it comes from a number of different sources, woody sources and other sources. some of it is coal products or by-products of renewable fuel production, there's always residual biomass that can be come busted, so we do think there's sufficient physical capacity that is economically competitive under the range of policies that are assumed in projection. >> [inaudible] >> it's actually pretty straightforward to, you know, particularly in something like a large coal plant to coal fire
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with biomass. my sense is there's often adjustments one needs to make because there's varying heat rates of different inputs into, you know, combustion and electricity generation. but these are not -- in fact, one of the reasons why biomass does relatively well is, you know, due to the, you know, comparative ease of incorporating entities. afterward we could get more technical details about what we might be assuming. >> hi, megan gordon. you included the plastic gas pipeline in the presentation, but you talked about it being a risk, can you talk about how much of a role the abundant shale gas is changing the likelihood of that project? >> uncertainty is probably a better word than risk. you know, the natural gas pipeline has been discussed for a number of years, you know, it's contingent, it's a
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large-scale multibillion dollar project that's going to have to traverse many, many miles, go through a number of processes, so in addition to the uncertainties surrounding natural gas prices, obviously, the pipeline will be relatively more competitive if higher natural gas prices are projected. as you mentioned, the increase in availability of gas supply in the lower 48 would tend to bring prices down which would tend to the, you know, put out the profile which might make sense. in addition there's project financing issues. this is a very large-scale project. so while again we do so see it coming in line on the projection, that could change over the next several years depending on how natural gas prices and other issues evolve. >> donnal ball, usda retired.
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what general of confidence -- level of confidence do you generally put on these projections, and what personal estimates have you made based upon your findings? [laughter] >> so one thing is that every year we produce a document which looks back in time at how well our projections did relative to what actually happened, so that's available on the web, and you can see what we did. in general, the projections tend to do significantly better on projecting quantities, so barrels of oil, tons of coal, kilowatt hours of electricity than they do on prices. that's one of the reasons why i've emphasized in this presentation that prices are highly uncertain, particularly for gas and oil. in terms of investments we've made, that's one of the reasons why we're taking, you know, extra care to both acknowledge and also quantify the degree of price guarantee in particularly oil and natural gas markets.
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>> thank you. david with argus media. two questions. first of all, you mentioned e10 and e85, and i didn't hear e15. so can i presume you did not factor that into your projections? secondly, on the imported liquid fuels chart, chart nine, you show a flattening out of production in the later years compared with what your projections were last year. so i'm trying to figure out -- and you have, i think, expanded net imports from 40 to 45%. what's going on in the later years that you're seeing now that you weren't seeing last year? >> okay. let's take the first one first. so we do not include e15 as a fuel blend in the projection because it is not currently an approved fuel blend under existing regulation. the second question which -- was
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it this slide you're referring to? so repeat the question, please? >> the production figure flattens out between the 2010 projection more than it did -- [inaudible] >> yes. so we have, yeah, we have relatively -- if you go back, oh, i don't know where it is. anyway, if you go back to the crude oil slide, you can see we're projecting somewhat lower oil prices in the projection which would tend to lead to relatively higher consumption. you could see consumption's a little bit higher, and it would also tend to mean that relatively less domestic production is incentivized because of lower prices, that tends to increase the wedge which means that net imports are slightly higher. that's the story. >> marcus, api. i have two shorter questions. first, will the assumptions be put out with this release or not until march, and second, are the
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other she scenarios going to bet we've seen in past years or beyond that? >> well, the assumptions, i assume, won't be coming out until march because the document is quite broad, explains all the different scenarios. one thing i should mention, though, there is a text document that will accompany the reference case scenario which will be coming out in the next week which will, basically, just look at the reference case overview. did that answer all the questions? >> [inaudible] >> oh, how many scenarios. we will have much more than four scenarios. how many? it's over a dozen. thirty different scenarios released in march, so there's a wide range of things, you know, oil prices, technology availabilities, we look at, you know, different levels of potential energy efficiency improvement, we'll have cases that look at alternatives for future policy that might be plausible like extending different tax credits and so on, so there'll be a wide range of
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scenarios. i have a question here. >> [inaudible] how many additional nuclear plants are you assuming from now until 2035, and are you considering small nuclear as well? thank you. >> yes, we have over eight gigawatts of new nuclear builds through 2035. you know, depending on how big those plants are, the number of plants, let's say maybe six plants at typical levels. in terms of small nuclear, i'm going to turn to my technical people to -- no, we don't have, we don't include that type of nuclear power in our projection. one correction i got is that, apparently, we will actually have the assumptions document next month with all of the scenarios? all the scenarios in it? >> [inaudible] >> okay. it'll be assumptions largely for
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the reference case. i have a question at the back here, two questions at the back. >> hi, kim pearly underwood, foster national gas report. you talk about capacity additions where you say that renewables are accounting for 37% of new capacity and natural gas is going to account for 46%, and then in the next slide when you talk about total generation, you know, market share, natural gas only accounts for, you know, almost remains flat from about 21% to 28%. can you talk about why there's a lot of capacity issues for natural gas but the overall share over time of natural gas kind of remains flat? >> right. well, roughly speaking the reason the share is remaining flat is because you've got overall electricity consumption growing, and you've got natural gas growing.
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if they're roughly growing at the same rate, then the share will be constant. in terms of distinction, you need to make a distinction between generation and capacity also. natural gas capacity tends not to be run even close to full capacity, maybe 40% utilization of capacity for natural gas often serving as a peaker for electricity peak load. >> my question is about solar energy. it seems like solar is the big loser here. can you talk about how you arrived at those numbers and what accounts for that? >> yeah. i actually would disagree. the solar increases over 12 fold in the projection. it's one of the most rapidly-increasing technologies, however, it's starting from a very small base, and you can have, you know, over 1000% increase in something from a small base, and as a share it's still relatively small.
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i would disagree solar's the loser in this, it's actually a big winner. >> hello, national wildlife federation. quick question on another small share. you have a relatively limited adoption of plug-in electric vehicles, and i just wanted, wondered what went into the relatively low adoption there and, you know, assuming -- and secondly, would you look at that differently in some of your march cases? and thirdly, if it were larger and because it spans the oil and electric sector, what kind of impacts would you expect to see? >> sure. we can get you the technical details about what our assumptions for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. they're currently quite expensive, if you look at the existing you could probably
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count it on a few hands. so even with significant expansion of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as i mentioned in the example earlier, we still don't see it providing a significant change to our forecast for electricity consumption, but nonetheless, it's possible it could dramatically increase. again, even dramatic increases from a relatively small base tend to take quite a number of years to have a substantial impact on overall shares of different things, and this would be be included in the vehicle fleet. but the main thing would be high initial cost of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and existing early stage development and deployment of those vehicles. i think we may have satiated the questions. any last questions? all right? thank you very much. [applause]
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>> now available, c-span's abraham lincoln, great american historians on our 16th president, a perfect gift for
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the history buff in your life. it's a unique contemporary perspective on lincoln from 56 scholars, journalists and writers. from lincoln's early years to his life in the white house and his relevance today the. abraham lincoln in hard cover at your favorite week seller and -- book seller and now on digital audio available where digital audio downloads are sold. learn more at book. >> now an update on preparations for the 2010 census with robert groves, directer of the u.s. census bureau. this is about 45 minutes. >> good morning, everyone. my name is stephen buckner, i'm with the public information office, i'd like to welcome you here to the second optional press briefing for the 2010 census. this morning dr. robert groves, our directer, will be talking about address van catting and the -- canvassing. his comments will be about 20-25 minutes followed by a question and answer period. if you're on the telephone, we
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do have a press kit on our online newsroom that you can click on, and we'll also be able to allow questions on the phone, so, please, just cue up with the operator, and we'll get to you when we can batesed on the -- based on the people in the room as well. without further ado, dr. groves. >> we okay on the -- >> yeah. >> great. good morning, thank you for coming here. this is the second update we've had since my coming to the census bureau in july, and we'll try to do these every once in a while to make sure that everyone is up to speed on how we're coming along on the preparations. as you know, since 1790 the census has been done every ten years, and each of those ten years we do the same thing, we enumerate everyone in the population, and we try to place
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them at their residential location. so we count all persons in their usual abode as the founding fathers said. this decade we have the shortest census in our lifetimes. it's a census that can be completed in about ten minutes by every household throughout the country, so it's an easy thing to do. we're happy about that. let me give you a rundown of the basics of the timing of the the census this year. in mid to late june, there'll be a start of the paid advertising campaign that will go on throughout the country. so a big event that we're preparing for now. at the end of january, we will start enumeration in the state of alaska. we have to start early up there because of weather conditions. in march the vast majority of the population will receive their questionnaires at their homes. most of them through the postal
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service. april 1 is census day. we ask everybody to return their forms by april 1, and we hope everyone does so, but if they don't, starting in may and from may through july we'll have a large set of people going throughout the country knocking on the doors of those folks who weren't able to return their questionnaires, and we'll do interviews with them in a face-to-face way. we're under a very hard deadline to return the counts of the deseven y'all census on december 31, 2010 to the president. it is those counts that determine the apportionment of the house of representatives going forward. and then in about april of 2011 we will distribute the data that will allow each state to redistrict their state for representation. i'm going to do three things today. i want to give you an update on how the preparations are coming for this massive event that we
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call thety seven y'all census. i'll specify, i'll say a few special words about the hiring process because we're hiring large sets of people over the next few months, and then i'll say a few things about the address list. this is the key file that we use to mail out all of the questionnaires around the country, and we have to get this right to produce a good, a good census. first, how are we doing? on administration and processing, first, we have successfully opened up 500, about 500 local census offices throughout the country. we're in place, that's the total we're expecting, they're getting staffed, they're up and running, they're doing their thing. we have opened three very large processing centers, one in baltimore, one in phoenix, and one in jeffersonville, kentucky. these processing centers are filled with machines, electronic
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scanners and sorters, that can process tens of thousands of questionnaires every hour. it's a massive operation. and then we have already printed hundreds of millions of forms. your press kit has a picture of one of our warehouses in the country stacked up with kits for interviewers, with forms of various kinds. it gives you a sense of how ready we are. we're ready to go on the form printing, still some forms are being printed. we're putting labels on the questionnaires that will be mailed out over the coming weeks. outreach and advertising, we have successfully formed partnerships with 135 organizations around the country. let me tell you what a partner is. a partner is a organization that volunteers to help us out. they volunteer to get the message out about the census to
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their group. some of these partners are national partners, some are large corporations like target and best buy. like aarp and campbell's soup, like the naacp and several media, black entertainment, telemundo, ewan vision and the urban -- ewan vision and the urban league. we have national and local partners. the local partners are the heart beat of the system. they reach out to local communities, to local neighborhoods to get the word out about why the participation in the census is important. so first on outreach partners are really important for us. these are voluntary arrangements, noncontractual people help us get the message out because they realize their group will benefit from their participation in the census. and then we have complete count committees. complete count committees are down at the local level, often named by a local mayor.
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they often break up into subcommittees, some subcommittees focus on education, some on social services, some on the business community, some on ethnic and cultural groups, and they spearhead the effort to get the word out in their cities. we have over 9100 of those spread throughout the country, 37 states have formed complete count committees. a lot of ethnic groups have formed national complete count committees, and we're looking for more, and we're also focused entirely with our 3,000 partnership specialists on energizing those partners throughout the country. this decade more than any other decade in my experience we have tailored our methods to very small areas. we have gotten pairs of our folks at every local census office to focus in on individual small areas that we call census tracks. we've focused on the hard to enumerate tracks.
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we mean by that those areas, those neighborhoods that in the year 2000 had very low return rates or had characteristics since 2000 that suggests that their behavior in the 2010 census might be less than ideal. we're tailoring our methods, our outreach, our ties with local religious and social leaders in those neighborhoods to the neighborhood itself. i'm very excited about what we call those track action plans because i think that will localize the census efforts in a particularly effective way. we've also launched throughout the country a program called census in the schools where from k-12 there are curricular materials that teach the census, teach a little geography, a little arisk me tick, map-reading stills and so on but also teach the civics lesson about how the participation in the census is a key thing for
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all communities. we'll begin a road tour with 13 vehicles around the country stopping at local events in neighborhoods and areas, small fairs, small block parties and so on to spread the word in a particularly effective way face to face. let me say a few things about software and systems development. we have run just a couple of days, or a few day ago a very large load test of the key components of the software that will allow us to manage the overall census. that software load test involved thousands of people around the country, so we had a lot of clerks in our local census office banging on the system looking for weaknesses in the system. it was the a successful test in
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that we found glitches at various points in the system. one system, indeed, wasn't part of the test because of a glitch. these glitches, each of these glitches have solutions we've already identified, and actually tomorrow we'll do a follow-up test. we'll do software testing in an iterative fashion prior to production to make sure these large sets of software systems work well when we need them in production. we've completed a variety of operations successfully on time under budget. they include a massive outreach to the country looking at group quarters. these are facilities like assisted living facilities and dormitories and any, anywhere where groups of unrelated individuals live. last census those caused us problems, especially problems of duplication, and we want to get that right, so we've added an
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operation that we've just completed. we're also doing the listing, the sample address listing for the tool that we use to evaluate the the overall census that we call the census coverage measurement procedure. that is going quite well, and we're in good shape on that. we're also recruiting, and this is the second major point i wanted to make. if you've read newspapers in local areas throughout the country, you'll see small articles that say the census has jobs for people. and at this time in this recession that we're all going through, these jobs are valued by the population. we are recruiting over this fiscal year over 3.8 million applicants in order to fill 1.2, 1.4 million jobs. at any one point, not that many people will be employed, but the biggest portion of that employment will be in the nonresponse follow-up stage may
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through july where about 700,000 people will be working for us knocking on doors of those who did not return their questionnaires. the hiring process that we're going through reaches out to unemployed persons disproportionately. we're advertising at unemployment offices, we're advertising in local media, radio and print to make sure that everyone who needs a job knows about the job opportunities. we are hiring locally. what does that mean? we want to hire people in the neighborhoods where they'll work. we've learned over the decades that hiring people who know the neighborhoods and know the streets, who know the lifestyles and the goings and comings of neighborhoods work better. this is especially true when we have areas that have nonenglish speakers. we will hire disproportionately
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bilingual interviewers to help us at that stage in order to reach out and speak the language of the residents. every applicant -- [inaudible] application that describes their background as well as their criminal history, and as part of our paramount concern can of the safety of both the american public and our enumerators, we put all of our ap applicants through a name check on the fbi data set. the name check submits their name, their social security number, their date of birth and their gender to the fbi's system, and we check for criminal histories based on the fbi. we also have gone beyond that. we did that in 2000, we're doing something extra this decade with regard to safety of the american public, and that is we're taking fingerprints on all applicants and submitting those even though that adds very few new
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discoveries of criminal histories, we're doing it because of the concerns. we're also concerned about the safety of our enumerators, and we have a variety of procedures when our enumerators go to areas where the crime rates are high to protect them, to go in pairs, to have escorts, to help out in various ways to make sure they're safe on their job. we're very concerned about that, and we're actively, aggressively -- we're acting aggressively to make sure that both our enumerators are safe and the american public is safe. on criminal history check, if there are any felony convictions for crimes such as murder, sex offenses, robbery, voter fraud, aggravated assault, weapons charges, grand theft, child molestation, any of, any conviction like that you are ineligible to work as an enumerator. if there are less serious convictions of less serious
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crimes, then you can be hired only if the applicant can demonstrate the extenuating circumstances that proves beyond a doubt that they don't pose a risk to the american public. i can't emphasize this enough, the safety of the american public is of paramount concern to the census bureau because we need to rely on the cooperation of the american public to do a good census. finally, and third, let me talk about the address list that is so important to a successful census. we have completed many of the processes, but the process continues. as you may know, we did a massive exercise in the summer where about 150,000 listers went out on every road and street in the country and listed addresses. they came armed with a list of addresses that we built up over
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the decade with cooperation from the postal service and other sources, especially local governments. we went out with 145 million addresses on this list. 67% of those were completely fine, all the address components were correct, we were able to find the unit, and we took a gps coordinate on it. but some of them we couldn't find. and so when all is said and done at the end of this process, our address list consists of about 134 million addresses. now, how do you evaluate that operation? well, an independent estimate of the number of housing units in the population comes pretty close to that. we're about two percentage points high on the one, the 134. that compares to about five percentage points high in the 2000 address list. i remind us that the 2000
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address list had a variety of duplicates of coming closer to that independent benchmark is a good thing in our belief. about less than 1% of these addresses have insufficient information to mail. we're going to handle those with special follow-up operations. that occurs in every census. about 1% or about 100,000 of the addresses we're estimating this right now, we're going through them, we have a fine address, but we can't place them exactly in the block they belong. and we're going through a special operation at the local area to update geographical information on those, and we'll deal with those with follow-up operations. i want to give a special thanks to a set of local governments that supplied a set of addresses to us to help us in this process. we have just delivered back to
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them recently the addresses we were able to find that they gave us, the addresses that we weren't able to find. and they're checking over those right now, and they'll go back and give us their reactions to that address list quite quickly. this is called the local update, the luca process. this is part of a process built into the census. it's a great local/federal cooperative procedure. we're also out with local governments seeking their help in identifying new construction that's being built right now. and then we're going to get a new update from the postal service of new addresses. we've gotten one in october, we'll get another one. we are constantly updating the address list to make sure it's up-to-date, and we'll keep doing it. those late adds to this address list, many of them will not get mailed questionnaires, but will follow up as, in later
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operations. i think i can conclude, now, by noting that we're entering a special time in the 2010 census. the plan has been set, the operations are being assembled for production use. you will see in coming weeks more and more activities. you'll see an advertising campaign in just a few weeks, you'll see a lot more activity of the initial operations. it is a time for all of us, but especially social/political/religious leaders around the country can, to get the word out that everyone needs to participate this, in this census. for the good of the country, everyone needs to participate, and we need to get the word out that this is an important thing to do, that it's easy to do, and
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that it's especially safe because of our strong laws. so i thank you for being here. i'm happy to field questions. >> let's begin the question and answer period. again, for those of you on the phone, we will get to you as we take questions here in the room for the directer. if you'd, please, state your name and also your immediate affiliation before asking the question, thank you. >> i'm deborah with the washington bureau. can you talk more about the efforts to energize these local count groups as well as talk about efforts to insure or increase participation among people of color who feel like they've been traditionally undercounted? >> absolutely. let me tell you some stories from my going around the country. these complete count can committees that exist at the neighborhood level and the city level are inventing their own solutions to energize their
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local communities. these are really fascinating things to do. there's some local cities that have put magnetic signs on all the garbage trucks and all the city trucks that says the accept us is coming -- census is coming, it's time to get out there. there are census booths at block parties and local community centers here and there. there are wonderful outreaches through the census in the schools program. i was in st. louis just a few days ago with a set of first graders who completed one of the exercises for first grade that we do, and that is a class census. and all of them reported on whether they took a bus to school or took their car or walked, and that was the information that the census provided for the group. all of these things that we attempt to do are efforts to in a set of words and concepts that
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fit each group communicate that their group participation is important. for groups that are traditionally undercounted, we are reaching out with a level of energy that we've never had before. we have 3,000 partnership specialists. last decade we had a fifth of that number. this is the result of stimulus funding. these partners, these partner partner/specialists are really down at a block by box level now trying to reach out as much as possible. some groups in some areas are not as energy eyed as -- energized as other groups in other areas. we always have that problem, and we're reaching out to local leadership. and by leadership here it's not just the politicians. it's faith-based leaders, it's social leaders, it's community leaders that are connected to the different groups that we need counted. and the message is always the same, you only benefit yourself,
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your family, your community when you participate. nothing of benefit comes to you if you fail to participate in the census. you're harmed indirectly. >> okay. we're going to take one question on the phone, please. there are no questions on the phone. thank you. >> good morning, dr. groves. from federal news radio and wtop radio. you talked about the address count and the process of tabulating addresses, and one of the tools that the enumerators were supposed to be using in this early phase of the address count was the, were the hand held computers, or this address tally is the only role now for the, for those handhelds. i was wondering if you could spend a little time talking to us about how those handhelds and the back-up systems behind them
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worked and if there has been any thought given to possibly another role, maybe a creative use of the handhelds between now and census day. >> okay. for the benefit of everyone, there were small handheld devices that had the capability of recording the the addresses and doing a few edit checks on the entries as well as taking gps coordinates. those were used successfully in this thing we call address canvassing, the effort in the summer to list all these addresses. it was judged at that time that the utility of that software for the address building process was fine. indeed, they performed quite well. that operation finished early. the one set of glitches on the hardware or software on that side were a set of delete
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operations. we're actually going through this through a set of feedback we got. those are running through those right now. looking forward, there are no plans to use those handheld devices in any further operation of the 2010 census. the reason for that is the same judgment that led their use, led to their use for address canvassing led to the rejection of their use for more complicated operations where we'd actually be using them to talk to residents and filling out the questionnaire. did that address your question? good. >> in the back. >> hi. eric crane, chicago business. can you talk about whether chicago is any further ahead or behind other major cities, particularly after stopping the use of a.c.o.r.n. to help, did that have any effect?
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>> i was in the chicago region just a few weeks ago. chicago has a wonderful feature of their mobilization for the census that, i think, is a model for other regions, and that is a group of local foundations have gotten together, offered small grants to communities throughout illinois to help them advertise the census to their local community. this is the joyce foundation and others. that has filled a gap in this, in that region that needs to be filled in other regions. state and local governments are on hard times right now. many of the staff that were used in 2000 for outreach aren't there now because of layoffs and other things. we're relying on volunteer activity thes at a greater rate than we did in 2000, and those activities of private foundations are filling a gap, and chicago's a wonderful example of that, i think. >> okay.
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we have a question, i believe, on the telephone. >> thank you. gregory cordy with the cincinnati inquirer, your line is open. >> thank you so much. we have a number of frustrations with the address canvassing and the master address file. one is, obviously, the short deadlines which, obviously, can't be helped, but the information they've gotten back from the census bureau, they say, is a little murky in terms of what new addresses have been added, and there seems to be particular concern with converted units, things that might have been one use ten years ago but have been converted into housing units. and the impression seems to be that they should get the benefit of the doubt on those units. could you talk a little bit about that, and you mentioned that you're 2% over, i think, an independent estimate of housing units. where does that estimate come from, and would you rather be 2%
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over or 2% under? [laughter] don't you want to give the benefit of the doubt to at least mailing the form out so that you don't undercount? >> yeah. to address that last question, i think we'd prefer to be a little over. because it doesn't bother us if we send to a unit that isn't inhabitable right now. we won't get a form back, we'll check that no one lives there. we'd rather have addresses on the high side than missed addresses, i'm pretty sure we feel that way. let me go to your first point. we are now in, we've given both ourselves a lot of work and these local governments participating in this luca program a lot of work in a short amount of time. that's your point. we understand that. we're all working real hard. and the purpose of the timelines on this is to make sure we stay up-to-date and we have a complete address list.
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so i realize the pressure that we're all working under, and i thank them for their cooperation. with regard to individual appeal processes, the process on this is well specified, actually, in statute, and that is there is an independent appeals office that is overseen by the office of management and budget here in washington that receives those addresses that local areas think are there that we didn't think -- we couldn't find. we couldn't find when we went out there. we're going to put those back in if they pass the appeal process, and we'll follow up on those. so this is the natural process. there's a lot of work, i understand, and some of the materials could be designed better in retrospect, but we're all working hard to make sure this process works, and i appreciate those local city officials who are doing this. >> okay. questions here in the room? any additional questions on the
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telephone? >> our next question comes from hope yen with the associated press. your line is open. >> yes, hi. i was wondering at this point kind of taking a big picture look of all the preparations you just described, what is your confidence level as to the overall government readiness to undertake this count both accurately and in a effective way? >> hope, it's a great question, and i think about it every minute of my life. i can answer it in this way, i am much more confident than i was when i came in, i'm more confident than i was at the end of a deep dive into our processes. my confidence is growing, not declining. but i'm a worrier. so i'm never completely confident. this is a massive, an awesomely massive operation that has a lot of moving parts. we all need to realize that the
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moving parts all won't work perfectly when they're up and running. there will be bumps along the line. this is the nature when you mobilize this many people to do one piece of work. the success of this is both our preparation, but also staying light on our feet when something bad happens that we calmly, quickly, wisely make repairs. and i am surrounded by a set of colleagues at the census bureau who know how to do that quite well. so that gives me great confidence. >> great, thank you. >> could you tell me what the bureau's latest assessment is in terms of what the estimate of the male response rate might be next april. >> >> well, we're working on this right now. we're very close to examining the uncertainties that still remain in the cooperation of the american public.
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and there's sort of two pieces that you have to realize, have to keep in mind when we start talking about return rate. when we mail out a form to a vacant house -- and we will do that over the coming months -- it doesn't come back. sometimes it comes back really quickly. the postal service say, we couldn't -- says we couldn't deliver to this address. the return rate that's often cited from 2000 is a 67% number. the numerator of that number is all the returned questionnaires. that makes sense. the denominator includes both occupied households and vacant households. the vacancy rate in the united states in 010 is going -- 2010 is going to be larger under our forecast than the vacancy rate in 2000. that will be a source of low return rates using that same definition. we need to focus both on the vacancy rate, but also the
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cooperation rate. the proportion of occupied households that return the questionnaire. and we're focused on that through all our advertising and outreach, that's really important for us. there when we estimate things there's good news and bad news. the cooperation of the american public for our sample surveys has been declining slightly every year. it's a harder population to measure in some sense. on the other hand, we've put in place in this decennial census a set of procedures that are a good thing that should increase that cooperation rate. a short form census is a good thing the, replacement forms are good things, bilingual questionnaires are good things, and our estimate at the end of all that is that it's -- the range of possibilities include what we achieved in the 2000 census. so there are a lot of uncertainties that remain, but we think we can still aim for the 2000 rate that's within the
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realm of possibilities. it could be worse, it could be better slightly. so we'll keep estimating this. i need to remind you one thing, this is a very fragile thing to estimate. an event in the public that changes public opinion about their participation in the census can change that rate for good or bad. and it's hard to forecast. >> great. okay. i believe we have a question here in the front. >> yeah, brian, npr. on that, on that point, i mean, there's always, there's been talk about, you know, an antigovernment sentiment out there. is that among your worries, and do you think it's any different now than it was ten years ago? is this something that might hold down participation? >> i worry about everything, as i said. the antigovernment sentiment was there in 2000, it was there in 1990. i saw a wonderful advertisement
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from the 1940 census that talks about antigovernment census -- sentiment. so it is part of the american spirit. it is the population we measure. a lot of our advertising is focused on why even if you don't trust the federal government why you can benefit from your participation in the census and why your neighborhood can benefit, your community can benefit and also why it's safe. how the census bureau is detached independent from enforcement agencies, how we have this law that puts us, all of our, all the census bureau folks in jail for five years if there's a breach. so this is a pretty tight system. we can say this honestly. and we try to deliver that message both by ourselves, but also by trusted voices in the community. people who share those sentiments about the federal government, but understand that
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the census is a different part of the government than the parts they fear. >> [inaudible] >> local community leaders down to the block level. we're in my travels in this role i'm going to senior citizens centers where some people in the room are undocumented, they've been undocumented their spire life, and -- entire life, and they're working with their service providers to understand this process. what is this american census? how is it safe, why is it useful to respond to it? that's the key in our belief. you've got to get down to the local level to get effective communication. >> okay. we're going to do two or three more questions. let me go on the phone, and then we'll come back to you. >> our next question from the phone lines from john mccormack with bloomberg news, your line is open. >> hi, thanks.
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john mccormack, bloomberg news. you've touched on this a little bit, but the economy is in the worst shape since the 1930 census. what advantages and disadvantages does that offer to the count, and what are you folks doing specifically to address the challenges in terms of vacancy, so forth? >> well, as your question implies, there's good news and bad news here. the horrible recession has benefited us in a indirect way. our applicant pool con b tapes a set -- contains a set of people with experience and background and training that is unprecedentedly rich. if you visit our local census offices that are being staffed right now, you'll see people with skills and teamwork experience that we will benefit from, the country will benefit the from in the decennial
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census. so the high unemployment rate has helped us. as your question implies, there are other things that are bad news. the vacancy rate through foreclosures and other reasons that people are living in homes that they were trying to buy hurts us. it means that we're going to mail out a lot of forms to units where no one lives. now, there's nothing wrong with that, the forms won't come back. but we have to check on that, and we'll call back on those houses from may through july. we're going to spend a lot of money determining that those houses are really vacant. so there's a cost to the 2010 census of this vacancy rate. there's another impact of this. those people went somewhere. many of them are in doubled-up housing with relatives and friends. we're trying to get the word out, and you can help us, that
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people need to be counted where their living -- they're living. even if they don't in their own mind think they'll live with their brother-in-law for the rest of their life, they're just temporarily there, that is their usual residence. they have no other residence. we want them counted where they're living. and getting that word out is important. for all of us to work on. >> two more questions. [inaudible] >> deborah berry with gannette again. could you address some concerns by some groups about not having the availability of putting down country of origin on the short questionnaire? a few groups are there, but several others aren't in their reasons and concerns about that. >> yeah. so all of your press kits have one of the questionnaires in it, and you'll see that ethnicity is one of the questions. a cool thing to do if you have nothing to do one weekend is to look at how that question has been asked over the decades.
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every decade almost it changes as our country changes. this is always a question about which there are debates when the census arises, and these debates are good. there are many people who look at that question and say i don't see how i fit in exactly. it's kind of hard for me to classify myself in the categories you've given us. i don't think of myself in these categories. and for them we have a box at the bottom that says, if you don't fit in any of the check boxes above, write down how you think of yourself in ethnic terms. there are 30 spaces in that box, and we know i was with a group of indian tribe leaders, and we know when there's tribal marriage to put both tribes down, and it goes beyond 30 characters it's really -- this is a tough job to get right. but that's where we want them to
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write in what they call themselves, how they think of themselves. and that's how we're handling it in 2010. this will always keep changing in this country as it becomes more and more diverse, and identification changes over time. self-identification changes. >> okay, last one, please. >> max for federal news radio again. dr. groves, the -- arguably, the 2010 census is sort of the super bowl for people in your profession in the statistical field and social research field. i was wondering -- >> we think about it as march madness. >> march madness. [laughter] very good, sir. tell us a little bit about -- hello? one, two, three. okay, we're back. could you tell us, sir, about the disconnect, if there is one, between what you need to do to
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manage the census professionally at the very big offices that you have around the country and the understanding and expectation that the average american might have about how the census works, how it's going to affect them, and in what, you know, what does that do in your thinking and your planning for the management of the census? >> well, first of all, about the census. it, you know, being a statistical geek like i am and my colleagues are it, we are reminded every ten years how the rest of the country sort of goes on without thinking much about the census for that ten-year period. we have a massive reeducation process challenge every ten years about the basics. so why do we do a census? what's it all about? why was it in the institution? how do i actually do it? you mean i fill out a form? do you try to measure everyone? the questions are at that level,
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and we're answering those questions now through all of our outreach. we have to start at a fairly low level, and we build up over that time. that process is part of the process of a professional scientific organization when you measure the the public. these aren't in conflict at all. our job as scientists is to construct designs that effectively measure the population that we're interested in and the economy that we're interested in. you can't do that at your desk completely well. you have to know and understand the population you're measuring. so a professional scientist who measures populations has to understand the the populations you're measuring to be a good scientist, and those things are together. >> okay, great. thank you. that does conclude the operational press briefing for today. i'd like to go over a couple of communications milestones that
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are going to be coming up and probably give you an estimate when we might meet again, but i know it's a very busy holiday period right now, but january is a very busy month for the census bureau. january 4th we'll be launching a national 2010 sin us road -- census road tour across the country, you'll see more information coming out from our offices. and then also our paid media launch ads start airing on january 18th. we will be doing a big kickoff of the paid media campaign here in d.c. on the 14th, so look for more details on that as well as the first enumeration of the country. dr. groves will be going to alaska to participate in the first enumeration of a remote alaska condition village, and that's on january 25th. so, again can, look for some of these key dates, and we'll keep you posted on all of the developments. if we didn't get to any of your questions on the telephone, please feel free to e-mail or call the public information office, and we'll get those in front of dr. groves or respond as quickly as we can.
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once again thanks very much for attending, have a great day. [inaudible conversations] >>reporter: american icons, three original documentaries from c-span now available on dvd. a unique journey through the homes of the three branches of the american government. see the detail of the supreme court through the eyes of the justices, go beyond the velvet ropes of public tours in the white house, america's most


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