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tv   Campaign 2018 Latino Voters the 2018 Midterm Elections  CSPAN  October 24, 2018 10:08am-11:10am EDT

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♪ >> we will take you live to a briefing on the midterm elections and the projected turnout of latino voters. this is from the national association of latino elected and appointed officials. we will hear from the president of the groups educational fund about the number of latinos expected to cast ballots nationwide in key states. an analysis of races were latino voters will be decisive. live coverage on c-span2. >> and certainly voting in our election which occur every year is part of participating in american democracy. and today we want to focus on what we expect may happen on
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november 6, 2018 with regard to the latino electorate. but first i'd like to express my appreciation to members of the naleo educational fund team to make this event possible by putting together the research, the visuals that you you'll see here, the analysis, all this comes together because we have a terrific team at the fund working from coast to coast to make our work possible. so my appreciation to my colleagues, rosalind gold, erin, paula, amanda, dorian, freddie, lucas, danielle. thank you to all of you who helped make this possible. my presentation will be in three major parts. first i'd like to provide an overview of latino electoral participation in the midterm elections and we really need to compare 2018 to 2014.
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but also it will remind us what happened in 2016 with regard to latino voter performance and latino community performances come some milestones we achieved. second, we will cover the factors affecting latino participation in this election. there's been quite a bit already written about some hand written by somebody political parties about latino enthusiasm in this election. we have been conducting a tracking poll. now we have spoken to 2250 latino registered voters, and will be sharing with you what's on their minds with regard to this collection and what they are doing to get ready for november 62018. as well as look at some of the obstacles to latino voters still face. the releasing today at update on our research on the obstacles latino voters face presented by restrictive state id laws across
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the country. many of those laws are now here to stay. so we releasing latino voters at risk 2018 and will go through some of the data as well this morning. finally, i'll be focusing on some races that we need to keep an eye on where we had some very exciting prospects for significant increase of latinos and latinas serving in statewide offices across the country, in the united states house of representatives. and then some races that are particularly competitive this year for latino voters to make a difference. and with the partisan control of congress hanging in the balance. so with that let me just remind us of latino voter performance in midterm elections. so this chart at the top is a blue line that shows you the number of latinos who are eligible to vote.
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you see that in 2014 we had about 25 million latino adult u.s. citizens. we put the number now closer to 28 million in terms of latino adult u.s. citizens, these are people who are eligible to vote if they get registered. and then you see the red line the number of latinos registered to vote. then the bottom line the number of latinos who actually turned out to vote in the midterm elections. election 2014 was a particularly troubling election for the country. because it was a historically low turnout for everybody. not just for latino. something that really troubled us in terms of the lack of latino engagement in 2014. you'll see at the national level the turnout of all registered voters was only 65%. only 42% of adult u.s. citizens in the country voted in the
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midterms in 2014. the turnout for latinos was also historically low in 2014. i turnout of only 53% of registered voters and the turnout of holding 27% of latino voting age citizens. what was behind this historic low turnout? wonder the things we must always keep in mind when we talk about the latino electorate -- one of the things -- it is heavily influenced by the performance of latinos in california. more than one another for latinos eligible to vote in this country live in california. performance in that single one state effects latino electoral performance nationally. and that's what we saw happen in 2014. california in 2014 experienced its lowest turnout ever in the history of the state for a regularly scheduled election.
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there was difficult on california in 2014. there were no competitive races. there was virtually no campaign by the incumbents who considered their reelections a foregone conclusion. so as a consequence californians in general and latinas with them pretty much stayed on in the general election. and that as a consequent brought down the latino voter turnout as a national number. things are very different in 2018 and we expect that to change with regard to the competitive races not just in california but across the country that is building latino voter enthusiasm. quick reminder about the most recent national election, election 2016. we did as a historic turnout of latino voters in that presidential election, 12.7 million latinos turned out to vote and that was the 13% increase in the number of latinos voted in the previous presidential election in 2012.
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by the numbers, you will see the turnout of voting age citizens for latinos in 2012 2012 was 4d it was roughly flat for 2016 but i draw your attention to the turnout of latino registered voters. in 2012, nearly 82% of latinos registered to vote turned out to vote. and in 2016 more than 83% of latinos registered to vote come turnout to vote the correlation is that it would manage to get latinos registered to vote, they are going to vote. so any obstacles to voter registration is a a direct, haa direct affect on latino voter turnout. so we are very enthusiastic about systemic changes that are being made around the country to make voter registration more accessible to the american
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electorate. things like pre-registering 16 and 17-year-olds, making voter registration more automatic, making sure that all adult u.s. citizens in this country are able to register vote and that registration doesn't present an unnecessary obstacle to voting. for latinos we know if you're registered, eight out of ten will turn out and vote. so we have work to do there in terms of making sure that registration becomes a fact of life for every adult u.s. citizen. there was some significant milestones in 2016 that have shaped the american political landscape for latinos are? on the election of the first latina to the united states senate, catherine cossey of cortez -- catherine cortez masto. election of the first puerto rican to use house of representatives from the state of florida. those are some milestones in 2016 and we anticipate even more
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milestones in 2018. in terms of latino voter performance, in our analysis of how latinos have performed in midterm elections over the course of the past eight midterm elections, our project is that we will have 7.8 million latinos voting by november 6, 22. when i say by november, that's because voting has already started across the country in early voting states. in fact, our tracking poll for week eight that would be releasing today shows that 5% of latino registered voters have told us they already voted. so voting is happening and i think this is a reflection of latinos following what's happening at the national level in terms of elections. this 7.8 million numeric turnout of latinos represent a 15% increase the turnout of latinos over election 2014.
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here's the representation about that breakdown is my state. we know there are many competitive races for governors races, for the united states city, for congressional districts all across the country and these are our projection for latino voter turnout in the state with the largest number of latino voters. in arizona nearly half a million voters can 486,000 their california again to my earlier point, california is very much over, an outlier in terms of the national electorate of latinos. in california we expect more than 2 million refutable, more than a quarter of the total number of latino voters nationally. colorado 225,000. over a million latinos projected to vote in florida. more than a quarter million projected to vote in illinois. nearly 300,000 in new jersey.
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when hundred 78,000 in new mexico which is coupled to the number of latinos who voted there in 2014. 2014. over half a million latino voters expected to turn out in the state of new york, and texas again with very competitive statewide races, more than 1.1 million 1 million latinos expected to participate by november 6, 2018. texas a ringwood of the early voting states. so the factors affecting latino participation in 2018. there's lots going on around the country that is affecting latino participation in our elections. i would first like to focus on some of the obstacles that we continue to see latino voters encounter in voting. in your packet today we're releasing as an engine latino voters at risk, the impact of restricted id requirements on the nation's fastest-growing electorate.
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we have published this report now in a previous election. this is an update to that. this lists the states that new voter id requirements for 2018. they include arkansas, , iowa, missouri, north dakota and texas dates with the new id requirement to register to vote, that's new hampshire. states that a proof of citizenship requirements to register, that's arizona, mississippi and tennessee. and strict voter id requirements in the states of alabama, arizona, georgia, indiana, kansas, mississippi, north dakota, tennessee, virginia and wisconsin. what these laws into having an effect on is -- there we go -- is on more than a million potential latino voters being affected by these restrictive
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voter id laws. this map represents the number of latinos in each of these states that could be affected by these voter id laws. we know that latinos voters are less likely than non-latino voter to have the kind of voter id that is required by many states. we know that many latinos have encountered obstacles to voting and these laws simply make it more inaccessible for latinos to exercise their franchise. i'll get into that because we see that being reflected in the very same tracking poll we were trying to measure voter attitudes and enthusiasm for 2018. we also asked them about obstacles they have encountered, and then reported that consistent with the research that we see where the states of voter id laws. so that tracking poll began eight weeks ago.
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week one consisted of 500 latino registered voters nationally representative sample of latino registered voters. then each week and additional sample of 250 latino registered voters has been added to that for a rolling tracking poll. this week is now week eight and we have two more weeks to go. we're going to the fuel later this week and will release results the week nine hopefully by tuesday of next week, and then right on the eve of the election will be the result of our tenth and final week of this tracking poll. this shows you again the methodology that we are using to assess the attitudes and experiences of latino voters are having in this election cycle. this does have a a margin of er of about 4.4%.
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so the major survey findings of our ten ten week tracking poll, again, we are now in week eight. latinos are ready to make their voices heard. what we're learning is that there's actually very high enthusiasm by latino voters to participate in this election. 71% of latino registered voters, remember, these are people registered to vote. the eight out of ten who typically turn up for election, 71% of them are saying that they are certain they will vote. another 12% stating that they probably will vote. you put those together, that takes you to 83%. that is a consistent figure of latino registered voters participate in our elections. the importance of this election isn't lost on the electorate. 69% of latino registered voters this year say it's more important to vote in 2018 that
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was in 2014. i think that's a a reflection of the lack of any kind of meaningful outreach and campaigns been conducted in 2014, as opposed to what is at stake for the country in 2018. and i want to latino voters the importance of participating in election 2018 but they also are mobilizing people around them. this is something significant and different from what we've seen before, that a majority, 69% of latino registered voters, have indicated that they have encouraged a friend or family member to either registered to vote or to vote this year. and that's up from 56% of latinos who said that they were mobilizing people around them in 2016. the reason why this is particularly salient for the latino thing is that our research over the years about effective and credible messengers and mobilizer is to get latinos to vote is at its
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family members who are the most trusted, and credible messengers to participate. in particular, latinas in the household, mothers, wives, girlfriends, sisters are catalysts for civic participation. and now with 69% of latino registered voters saying they themselves are being catalysts and mobilizer. we are seeing the reality and enthusiasm that we haven't seen before in the latino community across the country. they are taking action in different forms that united states citizens engage, express their political views. as i said, 69% indicate that they are encouraging or mobilizing family and friends to register to vote. 13% say they have donated money to a candidate or campaign.
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22%, more than one out of five latino registered voters, has said that they've attended a campaign rally or anything in support of a candidate. 14% said they volunteer to help the candidate or have done voter participated participate in a voter outreach drive. and 18% had said that they participated in a protest or demonstration against the candidate or an issue. so we're seeing that latinos are engaging in ways that we really haven't seen in previous election cycles. enthusiasm is high, station is high, within the latino community itself, among ourselves. we are mobilizing fellow latino voters. what we are finding our research is that that mobilization is that coming from external factors as much as they need to be. so despite this enthusiasm we see some obstacles they continue to persist.
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latinos are still once again in our opinion, editing the data bears this out, are being ignored in this election cycle despite the rhetoric of the political parties or the candidates running in statewide and district offices, despite what they tell us the voters themselves are saying, a majority of them, that no one has reached out to them to encourage them to register to vote interim of them being a political candidate, a campaign for an organization that is encouraging people to register to vote. so there is no investment in mobilization of latino voters from these outside political parties. and actors in our political system. the mobilization is coming from within the latino community. we are mobilizing ourselves. we are not seeing it happen to the extent that it needs to buy campaigns, by parties and by
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nonprofit organizations that are devoted to latino voter mobilization. one of the factors affecting mobilization by nonprofit organization is a lack of resources. we at the naleo education fund has experienced and seen a dramatic disinvestment by national foundations, by funding entities, by donors in the mobilization of latinos for nonpartisan campaign. so efforts in an organization like naleo education fund would traditionally carry out an election year has virtually no support from foundation or donors in this election cycle. latinos have been abandoned by the donor community in election 2018. and when we see whether researches are going, they've been very much been surgically
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directed to certain and that 12 races and campaigns so that particular electoral outcomes can be achieved by the donors and the folks investing in races around the country. so we are not seeing investment in the latino electorate overall pick witnessing the building up of latino civic engagement infrastructure for the long-term. we are seeing only surgical investment in certain races where donors believe that latino voters only matter in those races. as a consequence and not surprisingly, a majority of the voters are saying they are not hearing from anybody in terms of the campaign and the candidates. and this this is a systemic prm in our political system, that those with the resources to reach voters only reach the voters they think are important and don't reach the entire electorate. this is something that we in the
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naleo and working on for years to try to change and to convince latino voters that every election in every state and in every district matters, that every vote matters. not only in the ones where people tell you that you are in a swing state or a swing district. and in this election your vote finally really does matter. no. we need to convince encourage our voters to actually become stakeholders in american democracy. and that requires long-term sustained investment in the latino electorate, and we are still not that. so fortunately, the bates over polls what's happening in this election is that latinos are self mobilizing for election 2018 and not living it up to the candidates or the parties. nonetheless, we also see ongoing problems at the polls.
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in our latino voters at risk report, we highlighted states that have restricted voter id laws, proof of citizenship laws registered to vote and vote. not surprisingly a significant number of latinos in our tracking poll, again these are latino registered voters, are reporting that they had experienced a challenger obstacle in voting. fully, 46% of latino registered voters that we have polled reported experiencing at least one issue that persuaded them or prevented them from voting 32% said that the that they experienced long wait times to vote. 15% said they experienced errors in the registration at precinct or polling locations. 15% experienced registration issues. these were at the top of the list but yet 10% of latino registered voters told us that
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they experienced problems in presenting their ideas when you're trying to vote, and 12% experienced issues with language assistance where they were trying to vote, even where language assistance and languages other than english are required by the federal voting rights act. so here's a chart that shows the number of latinos that reported extrinsic the cyprus problem. again, 32% of latino registered voters saying that they experienced very long wait times in order to vote. that shouldn't be happening in the united states. you should have free access to the vote but we have seen photographs and media reports in the past elections that folks are willing to enjoy these long wait times because more and more people realize that elections have consequences. so where do latinos stand in
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election 2018? there are many issues that are important to latino voters. emigration and protecting immigrant rights is at the top of list what is on the might of latinos registered voters. these issue questions have been asked in our tracking poll every single week. week one, when asked by five latino registered voters, and in 250 new voters and consistently writes is been at the topless but very close behind there which again reminds us that latinos are not a single issue constituency. issues dealing with economic issues, improving wages was an issue that was very important to 27% of latino registered voters, creating more jobs was important to 24%, and 22% indicated that
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lowering the cost of healthcare was important for them in this election. so latinos are looking at the issues facing america, just like any other united states voted for economic issues even though we may have strong economy now, meaning latinos are not reporting that it's reaching them. it's at the top of their list, improving wages and income and creating more jobs. so while we may have low unemployment rates and strong economy, latino registered voters are not necessarily experiencing that. among latino registered voters, 72% told us they plan on voting for the democratic candidate for congress, with 21% indicating that the plan to support the republican candidate for congress, and 7% undecided. so some of these very close congressional races, we would go to that in a minute, latino
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registered voters could really make a difference in the bowels of control of the u.s. house and possibly the senate. so both parties continue to struggle to define the suspect this is something that without particularly troubling in the result of our tracking poll, that when we asked them if the democrats take control what will they do? more than a third of latinos could not articulate what the democratic agenda was. and nearly half of latinos could not articulate the republican agenda was. so what these parties continue to fail at is not just reaching latino voters, to contact them, to encourage them to vote, but also to explain themselves to latino voters. you expect some a deterrent to vote, you have to give them a reason to vote. if voters are not able to
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explain what the party stands for and then you're taking away a a reason for somebody to vote. we will continue to do the work at naleo to ensure that every latino registered voter has free and unfettered access to the franchise. it's part of what makes our democracy so strong that we have the ability to make sure that everybody is able to vote. so we go again be an anchor in the election protection coalition. we will have a toll-free number that will be available in the days leading up to the election. it is 1-888-839-8682. on election day that phone number will be live from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. eastern time.
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so we will have call centers throughout the country and will have attorneys at the right to make sure that anybody calls and reports problems at polling location, whether it's they are being told are not registered to vote, that there's a typo in the name or some of these obstacles that we know the latino voters do face, that we will have some recourse for them so that they can be sure to vote even if it's with a provisional ballot on november 6, 2018. now let's talk a little bit about what's happening in terms of latino candidates for office. as if that is very exciting election. if you look around the country and the number of latinos and latinas were running for office at all levels of government, there are three key senate races that have latinas running. kevin de leon, the california state senate president pro tem emeritus is challenging dan
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feinstein. this is an intraparty fight, democrat against democrat in california. texas, ted cruz running for reelection with the competitive race against that o'rourke. and in new jersey the united states senate, senator robert menendez incumbent seeking reelection. we believe has a a very good chance of being reelected. in the house, however, we are very excited that we fully expect to see some fresh new faces in the united states house of representatives. we expect that these five candidates will be successful on november 6. julie garcia will be likely the new member of congress from illinois taking the seat occupied by luis gutierrez. anthony gonzalez a former nfl wide receiver and entrepreneur is likely to prevail in ohio's district 16. you've all heard about alexandria ocasio-cortez in new
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york being a new member of the new york delegation. and then in texas, big news for first time in history of the texas two hispanic women from the seven hispanic woman elected to texas to serve in u.s. house and there will be two. the former el paso county judge and state senator sylvia garcia, as national naleo president are very likely to prevail in the races and become the first two latinas from texas to serve in the united states house. and then there are latinas in highly competitive congressional contests around the country. in arizona congressional district number two, peterson is waging a competitive race for that seat. in california we have two races with very competitive candidates
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in orange county and southern california. there's a very competitive race again in florida district 26 with incumbent carlos been challenged by powell. in florida 27, maria is the republican candidate seeking to replace diana ros-lehtinen. in new mexico, an attorney taking on the republican bear to try to be the second latino elected to congress from new mexico. state senator in west virginia, and in the race to replace speaker ryan, ironworker rangy price is actually launching a very competitive race in wisconsin. so in the best scenario for us that are currently 34 latinas in
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the u.s. house. in many of these candidates prevailed we think that maybe as many as ten additional members of the u.s. house of representatives who are latinos and latinas. bringing the number of from 34 to 41. that would be an historic high in terms of the number of latinos who are serving in the u.s. house of representatives. still not representative of the latino electorate for the latino population national but significant progress, particularly for a midterm election. usually we will see this kind of increase after a decennial census and aftra decennial redistricting that follows the reinforcement. but here we're seeing a possible jump in the number of latinos in congress and a midterm election, quite extraordinary engines what's happening around the country. in terms of statewide contests, there three latinas running for governor, david garcia in arizona. he had a very strong race two
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years ago. now he's a challenge the incumbent. michelle lujan grisham, the chair of the congressional spanish caucus is in a very competitive race to be the next latina governor of new mexico. and former dallas county sheriff lupe valdai is taking on governor abbott in texas. there's a number of latinos running for lieutenant governor as well. in california, florida, illinois and in new mexico regardless of which party in new mexico the will be in the teen or latina lieutenant governor. a number of latinos or encumbrance of statewide office are running for reelection. attorney general california running to be elected in 2018. other incumbent, secretary of state of california, secretary
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of state of rhode island was the first latino elected to statewide office in all of new england. george p bush, land commission in texas, state control in illinois, hector, the incumbent attorney general in new mexico. all of them very excellent prospects of being reelected come november. and there are other latinas in statewide offices that are very competitive, from arizona to california to indiana, nevada, new mexico, latinos really all over the country seeking to serve all of their constituents statewide in their states as you can see by this chart. in particular just another mention of california that california has five latinas running for statewide offices in this election. it's is quite extraordinary again. one of the things we do see that's a little troubling is that we expect there to be a
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slight decline in the number of latino serving in state houses. this phenomenon really being a function of sitting state senators and state house representatives and assembly members moving up and serving, running for higher office, and not replaced by other latinas are latinas. so our projections are that there may be a net loss of three state senators and a maybe a net loss of four lower house representatives in state capitals around the country. we'll keep a close eye on them. once the election is done after november 6 we will issue our final report on the numbers of latinos elected to caucus, to the united states income statement offices and to state houses. so stay tuned for that. that will come shortly after november 6. finally, let's look at latino vote in fact, of gubernatorial
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races. here we see the percentage of latinos that make up the electorate in these very tight races for governor in arizona, colorado, connecticut, florida, new mexico, nevada, rhode island and texas with you latino share of the vote could relate to the outcome of the election. we see the same thing happening in key senate races in arizona, the contest between martha mcsally and kyrsten sinema. in california the intraparty fight between dan lyons and feinstein. florida the race between rick scott and bill nelson. texas race between ted cruz and that o'rourke. all of the states and more latino voters can certainly be the balance in shaping the outcome of the race. again, if these candidates and parties reach out to these voters. latino voter impact on house hoe contests picks a number of significant and competitive
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races and congressional district all over the country where latinos make up a significant share of the electorate in the states. in arizona, six congressional districts in california that are very close where the balance of the majority party in the house of representatives may be decided latino voters can make a difference there. moving on to other states around the country two dishes in florida, visit in new mexico and nevada, and four district in texas where latinos take up such a significant share of the electorate that they could be the deciding factor in the outcome of those races. so to summarize, latinos are enthusiastic about voting. they are self mobilizing because the parties and the candidates are not doing enough to engage them, to mobilize them.
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despite this enthusiasm we know there are real factors that are presenting presented obstacles to latinos to vote. some of those are state restrictive voter id laws that in our tracking polls latinas tells their having a real-life effect on their ability to exercise their vote. so at naleo education fund we will continue do all we can to encourage all latino adult u.s. citizens are registered to vote to turn out in november. we are doing this by a shoestring, because the disinvestment by foundation and donors and latino civic for conservation infrastructure of the country, but we can't just sit back and watch while elections happen with that doing all we can to ensure latinas participate and make their voices fully heard. so thank you, and take some questions.
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[inaudible] >> so thank you for doing this. i have two questions. one is if you can talk about what effect if any will the migrant caravan have on the election, especially because republicans are mobilizing based on this, the threat of invasion equipment quote number one. number two, the dnc is pushing back on these criticisms that they are painting latino voters. the dccc has invested more than 25 million they say in reaching out to latino voters. so why is this, why do latinos feel that they are abandoned when it leaves the democratic party says they've invested way more now for the midterms? >> let me take that caravan question first. i really don't know what that issue and what impact that may have on latino voter turnout or
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participation. one of the benefits of having the tracking poll is that in this poll we are able to ask issues as they occur. for example, one of the issues that we ask latino registered voters was their views on brett kavanaugh when he was still being considered for the united states supreme court before he was confirmed to the contrary by the city were able to engage latinos opinions of the justice, and so we are hoping that we can include a question on the caravan in the final two weeks before the election. so stay tuned for that. as far as the democratic parties claimed that the investing, that may be true but it can't just happen in one election. it has to be sustained. it can't just be cyclical and that, and it can't be surgical use. it has to be across the country in all 50 states of reaching latino voters.
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latino registered voters and our tracking poll to tell us the democrats are doing a better job than the republicans in reaching them. in fact, 53% of latinos in her tracking poll said the democrats were doing a better job of reaching out to latino voters compared to 30% of latinos who said the republican were doing a better job. the numbers don't lie. if 53% of latino registered voters consistently week after week after week after week after week tell us that no one is talking to them, and something isn't happening out there that these parties may claim that they are doing. [inaudible] [speaking spanish]
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[speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] >> yes, sir, right here. >> hi, good morning. thank you for doing this. i have a follow-up. you said that naleo expects higher turnout, latino turnout,
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and higher number of latinos in the house. so given that, why is it a problem that this investment? it seems like still there is growth by inertia, maybe. i don't know, but, so the parties can claim they don't need to do investment because still there is growth. >> there is growth and there is progress, but i think incremental and it should be much more significant. if we had the kind of investment that is required to mobilize voters. latinos are self mobilizes because it's not being done by external factors. imagine if there was an investment by both parties to truly mobilize latinos. the number of latinos in congress would be much higher. the number of latinos and statewide office would be much higher as follows in states capitals across the country. so we're making progress but it is despite the actions by some of these larger levitical
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forces. [inaudible] >> we have been told by some donors that they prefer to only fund small organizations in particular districts and to ignore the electorate overall. and i think the data about latinos being ignored, bear out that strategy. that wealthy donors only investing in the races where they think latinas mattered for their electoral desires, and desires can really in 17 manipulating the latino vote to their own. >> could you give some examples of better outreach? and does that include materials in spanish? do you think having materials in
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spanish is helpful or maybe insulting to the second and third generation that make up most of your voters? >> latino voters are not a monolith, and any campaign to reach latino voters to be effective and smart knows they need you spanish and the need to use english. they need to reach older voters and the need to reach younger voters. older voters because they're more likely to turn out. younger voters because that's what the largest number of potential electorate is. you can't have a one size strategy for the entire latino electorate. and in terms of what more outreach means, it means hard work. it means knocking on doors, calling people, engaging them, listening to latino voters and not assume, not assume that you know exactly what's on their mind. >> i'm going to use your
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bilingual skills can if you can answer both english and spanish. entries about your projection, or increases are very high for arizona, california, florida, illinois but extremely low for texas. is this a trend that just continues and we would expect we are seeing a lot of big numbers of early voting in texas as we speak, but the numbers here that you project is quite low for a midterm election is this something, the continuation of a trend, are you disappointed that the result? >> our projections are based on past latino electoral performance and nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong. if you have a much larger number of latino turnout in this election than those that we project. [speaking spanish]
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[speaking spanish] >> texas in particular, is it a trend? is it a surprise? was expecting something bigger? >> texas is one of the most challenging states. i think you you have a combination of latinos having had a history of discrimination in voting by redistricting patterns done in the state of texas. the restrictive voter id law in texas i think as an impact. if you compare that to the number of latinos who say that they're being discouraged to pokémon i think there's a correlation, that there is suppression tactics happening in texas that is making this difficult for latinos to vote in that state.
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[speaking spanish] [speaking spanish] >> thank thank you very much. i want to ask two questions. one actually picking up on what he just asked. i looked at the latino shaping the political landscape sheet, and i noticed that the only states where you'll see a national decrease in the turnout is new mexico. and i'm curious to know if you have data that shows why, particularly because this is the state that has highest percentage of hispanic population, , the highest percentage of hispanic elected
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officials. and have a candidate for governor who was the former secretary of health of that state in a year that the democrats are saying that the top three issues are healthcare, healthcare, healthcare. >> right. well, actually we have looked at those numbers in new mexico much more recently, and we think the difference is not a decline but it is statistically insignificant, that we will see pretty much a level turnout of 2014-2018, which is still is disappointing. we know that in mexico also has had a trend of not having very high latino voter turnout. and i think that's one of the states were often gets ignored because it's a small state and it's not considered often to be a big player in the national scene. what happens locally is very important. so we will be following this very closely. >> my second question very quickly, do you have data showing that are particular challenges with registered voters being discouraged to vote
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because they are part of mixed immigration status families? >> we don't have data on that specific point. i saw a hand over here. yes, sir. >> -- on the side of usage or discourage or not very happy about. which states of the bright spots, and did you feel that any state is sort of replicating what happened in nevada and colorado over the past few electoral cycles? >> actually think california is a bright spot in this election cycle which is a dramatic difference in 2014 when it was nothing happening on the state ballot. quite the opposite this time. you have latinos running for the united states senate, for attorney general, for insurance commissioner for lieutenant governor, for secretary of state come statewide candidates, all of whom have three-star prospect
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of actually winning reelection or election. the of a number of competitive races up and down the state for congress. so i see that as a bright spot. and we know that the history of california over the past 30 years has been one were latinos have shaped that states electoral performance and the policy of that state. so i think that the bright spot but also if you turn to the other coast and look at florida and see the race were the government there. ..
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>> how do you sort of reconcile whatever you've seen as the bright spot in california which would be much more statistically confident within this context versus measuring this in other states whether it'd be texas and florida to large states? >> we have 2 more weeks to go in tracking poll. an additional 500 latino registered voters will be added to the sample. we expect by next week and certainly within the next two weeks we will have state-specific samples large enough to report experience of voters in texas and california.
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stay tuned on that. >> hi, arturo, thank you. i was wonder if you can talk party outreach to younder latino voters versus nonyounger latino voters? >> i don't know off of the top of my head on that but we can certainly look into that because we do have a large enough sample of voters by age in order to track that, we would be able to look that up for you. >> do you have percentage in naturalized citizens voting or registered this year? >> we don't have data on how many more naturalized citizens would vote as opposed to previous elections. the data are consistent la naturalized latino citizens
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outperform native born latino citizens and this is actually what distinguishes latino naturalized citizens from nonlatino naturalized citizens. naturalized citizens from asia and europe and africa and north america, from canada, those naturalized citizens do not outperform their native born counterparts but that happens in latino community, that's an indication that when a lot know legal permanent decides to naturalize, they are looking to participate in elections and they see ability to vote as something that they have earned and not taken for granted. >> so an effort to naturalized more -- >> the education fund has component to our work since inception in 1981 and we continue to do that day in and day out. that work never stops.
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yes. >> hi, thank you. so on barriers to voting, since so many people reported problems with long wait times, have you looked at all polling place locations especially if there are trends with places with high latino population? >> we have. and in fact, i was in denver colorado yesterday and had a meeting on monday with the secretary of state there williams who has putin vaitive reforms that are being replicated in other states including california, innovations in oregon, vote centers where it makes it easier for people to vote so they can vote where they work as opposed going back to where they live and vote there. we are looking at systematic changes so, again, nobody is discouraged by institutional barriers which is
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disenfranchising people. last question. >> afternoon >> arturo, do you think it's an issue that we -- that the type of consultants are using engaging are not necessarily sensitive to the community in terms of language access or -- or messaging that is appropriate for the community and not just teams translating in spanish. you mentioned that everything has to be in english and spanish which i agree. maybe the messaging in spanish has different connotation whereas the consultants are right for those teams in general, i'm not being hired, do you think this is an issue or this is something that it's not relevant, more about the funding than the messaging?
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>> i know that historically latino political consultants always feel that they are not being fully -- their expertise isn't being incorporated. i can't speak to this election cycle. i haven't engaged with political consultants in terms of experiences. in terms of postmortem, when we look at how much resources were invested by parties and campaigns and candidates and spanish language television, english-language television targeting latinos with latino messages and those political consultants would be able to answer the question. whether 2018 was a continuation of this trend that we see in the past. yes, in the back. >> quick question. with weekly polling that you've been doing, what's the case in florida given the fact like with the migration from puerto rico,
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we have a lot of puerto ricans moving to florida and, you know, there's been a lot of movement to get them to register. but has the hurricane or the issues pertaining to the island been a factor in encouraging puerto ricans to register to vote. >> because of the nature of the tracking poll we haven't been able to ask state specific issues, but we will have a large enough sample of florida latino registered voters and by ethnicity to be able to answer that question over the next 2 weeks. [speaking in spanish]
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[speaking in spanish] >> hard to conclude that even with the number of, big increase? >> not pace on tracking poll yet because samples are not large enough for it to be reliable, we expect that in the next couple of weeks. >> okay, well, thank you very much for joining us today for latinos in election 2018. [applause] [inaudible conversations]
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>> more conversations on campaign 2018 later today on c-span2 at 6:15 p.m. eastern, we will hear from the journalists from the ap and cnn and advisers to president bush and obama on trump administration and the midterm elections, live from new york university. >> new york times best-selling author, live call-in program on sunday november 4th at noon eastern, most recent book a spark of light, other books include small great things, the story-teller, lone wolf, plus 20 more novels, also written 5 issues of the wonderwoman comic book series for dc comics, watch in-depth fiction edition with author jody


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