trump gets reelected. they talk about the field of democratic nominees to see which has the greatest opportunity to eat the president in the general election. joining them on stage with danny diaz from jeb bush's campaign, jeff roe from ted cruz's campaign and terry sullivan from marco rubio's campaign. this is an hour. >> good morning. how is everybody doing? lively. to get you coffee, thanks for being here. i am the chief political correspondent for politico magazine, auto -- i'm supposed to read this. author of the new york times best-selling book american

carnage available for preorder on amazon.com. i have little kids who need a lot of diapers. i'm delighted to welcome you to the 2019 texas purdue festival will for which politico is a social media partner. we invited texans from a corner of the state to open congress, politics and news and community festival. thanks for joining this event and i thank pfizer for their partnership in sponsoring this event today. my colleagues and i are excited to convey important conversations this afternoon including the playbook exchange with members of the house freedom caucus. they are not for impeachment. how to fix american politics after that. 2020 and the border will be third in order and finally agriculture in the modern world. sick around for those things. first conversation of the day, i am honored to be sitting with

this mostly distinguished panel of three top republican strategists in the country, they were the campaign managers for the jeb bush campaign, the marco rubio campaign and the ted cruz campaign. they are danny diaz, hold your applause. [applause] >> terry sullivan. [applause] >> a little less enthusiasm for terry. >> please clap. >> please clap. finally jeff roe, no applause. we are supposed to be joined by a fourth guest, beth hampton, campaign manager for john kasich's presidential campaign, she ran into some flight difficulties, could not make it today which will open the floodgates for the anti-k-6 abuse they were planning to

levy. >> he has not given up yet. >> can everybody here is okay? maybe not so much. let's jump into it here. we concluded our last conversaon with a great panel discussion with these folks some months ago and concluded that panel conversation by talking among other things about the changing demographics in america and how that would shape the battleground map heading into 2020. we are in texas and i will start with texas and talk to you guys about where we are 14 months from election day, where we are as pertains to texas being competitive in the general election next year. if you were responsible for running the campaign of the even jewel democratic nominee

how heavily would you be preparing to invest in texas and how real a possibility for democrats to turn the state. next november? you for a lot of campaigns, we will start with you. >> not competitive. trump's low watermark would be 7, 6, high wateark is 12 or 13. i would send early people, release early state polling and barnstorming and ask the smallest amount of resources possible to play all day long and wouldn't spend a meaningful dollar. that is. everybody wants to have in texas turning blue, texas will never be blue, but highly likely in the next four or eight years it will be purple and competitive. we are seeing early advancement of that with the 2018 cycle,

with the president's numbers, his image and job approval. if everybody votes in texas republicans win by 10. in a presidential race everybody votes. >> you had near presidential level turnout in 2018. >> previous presidential level turnout. >> according to folks listening to you, texas is a jump ball, this is a 50/50 state next november. you disagree with that why? >> politicians are typically wrong which is why they run the entire people to run their campaign. the reason, 8.6 million people voted, next year 10.5, 11 million in that neighborhood will vote. if everybody votes you have a whiteout. a lot of people think it is a

new growth coming into texas, democrats as i said before, live streamed or taped, all liberals -- not just that. democrats don't pick up and move from california to austin for higher taxes. it is republicans. people come to freedom, freedom's dying breath will be in texas. they like the job, opportunities. it is not just democrats moving in but republicans moving in. ted cruz did better with people who were here 10 years or less. beto, 10 years or more. those are staggering statistics, they will get drowned out with the rest of your panelists or politicians who don't know what they are talking about but the reality is texas is read. it will be purple because the nonweight voting increase in texas and if there is any

immigration reform that legalizes illegal votes it could happen where it would be more purple this year than the 4. >> either of you guys disagree? >> i don't disagree. from my perspective, you might do a head fake with respect to texas. i don't know how many people -- >> can we get your mic up? >> is this better? >> you may need from a political perspective to do a head fake concerning texas. i find it hard to believe it is on the map. it was an element of surprise in 18, no element of surprise in 2020. it is a big state, basically a country and the campaign costs real money. the money spent here is not spent in phoenix and it is not

spent in atlanta. more legitimate pickup opportunities spending money in dallas and houston then here in austin so from my perspective it is hard to believe they are making a meaningful play. georgia better pick up opportunities? terry: absolutely. advice got ted cruz reelected so clearly it is not a swing state. let us be honest. it is a solid red state, maybe it is trending less solid, but it is not anything that is going to be several it's going to be several election cycles before the a meaningful -- a lot of it is almost what by outsiders, thiss of luck, hispanic population. guesss what. a large portion of the hispanic population in texas is fifth-generation texans. this is not the hispanic population you run into florida

or other parts of the country. it's way to oversimplify, growing hispanic will only democrats will win. >> the last time we got together it was on the eve of the first democratic presidential debate. we were gaming out what the primer of the democratic side would look like relative to what the very crowded somewhat chaotic primary look like on the republican side back in 2016. there were some similarities and differences. one of vagueue similarities is w jill biden as a candidate reminded us in a not insignificant weight of jeb bush. i would say one of the if not the biggest development since we got together a couple of months ago is jeb bush -- excuse me, joe bidenen beginning to tread

water. his rivals sensing some vulnerabilities today that they did not sense to three months ago. danny, i want to take that to you. you were looking at this a couple of months ago and giving some warnings to the biden campaign about how they could aboard with jeb bush suffered in 2016. 2016. how do you assess the way that they are running that campaign strategically, and do you see his current downward trajectory is just a blip or is he in real trouble? >> the reality is it's hard to be a front runner. when you're on f top, in our cae 16 of the people that are shooting at you. in his case he has over 20 people shooting at him. the reality is he's been fairly durable to been very candid. considering his performance thus far in these debates and whatnot. he's maintained a healthier lead on the national front and he now

sees slippage on the state front. you're talking double digits in new hampshire, double digits in south carolina. so he's maintain some durability but at the end of the day, will the question i'm asking myself is how does he have that downward trend. you look at any of the numbers, what's happening now is he has an h enthusiasm gap to work,, number one. and number two, just as problematic is she's the second choice of a lot of voters. he's becoming less of a second choice. he's a first choice and he's a first choice and some ways there is more support come more from this around that first choice and she's a little bit softer in some of these early states. but she is the second choice for a lot of voters and her energy level is on the upward

trajectory. his energy level is on the downward trajectory. the question to be asked is what is he going to do if ebb the current direction. >> what do you guys makema of jb today but relative to where hes at the outside of the race? >> biden or jeb? >> sorry. were going to talk about biden. let's talk about biden. >> we can save some shots for jeb at the end but what you guys make a biden today? we're hearing almost a little bit of ato panic narrative. it was reporter yesterday from cnbc who tweeted out that the biden campaign, sources, had told him they were already bracing to lose both iowa and new hampshire. which i call bs on because for five months those areif two very different states but there's a creeping sense that they have to fix this, that they neededoi

something to stop the bleeding. how worried would you be if you're running joe biden skimping? >> i think it's impressive at how well they have on. at the end of the day he hasn't dropped in the margin of error. if you look at where his polling is now, other candidates have gone up but he hasn't sunk much at all. he's done a very good job. he had everything stacked against him, being the front runner, more moderate than the rest of his party. at the end of the day, there was every reason to believe that he was going to tank right out of the gate and they've done a really good job at surviving all this stuff. thisis handwringing, crap about insider says, that's just bs. it's probably some donor protected settlement and is like they're ready to win if they lose this.

who cares? i i think they've done a smart b of running to get a campaign to need to run. bidens only chance is to stay the front runner. >> danny and terry are not ready to push the panic button inside the biden campaign. how worried are you? >> it's over. you have a better chance of being the nominee for the democrats than he does. >> i do? >> yes. the only thing i can say can would be -- you're not 35? award-winning author? >> can you believe that? >> forty under 40. >> human look much older than that. >> thanks. i thinknk there's -- when jeb me the analogy when jeb was slowly leaking out, he wasn't leaking out nationally. it was a prop up and kept his overall numbersep high but in tr early states he was eroding

without a lot of negative campaigning. so biden isn't taking a hit. he taking a hit every single day picky set one your dates the bad news. he's getting -- it might have another one of days of that is because democrats now are worried that the one thing he is going, electability is always fools gold in politics, always fools gold, democrats are going to think the president is getting impeached. anybody electable beating him in utica was somebody we believe and that will share our values and do what we want to get done and biden is that the safe choice anymore to beat trump. that is no longer his narrative. >> this surge -- >> if you're going to lose iowa and new hampshire and think you're going to hold south carolina, that's bad strategy. the "post and courier" had him at 46. the "post and courier" has him

at 36 in august. he's on a downward decline, like he has to address that. the way you may address it is not necessarily lifting your got up. it's by making sure that elizabeth warren is in the barrel and she gets the level of scrutiny over the next four or five months that he has gotten over the previous four or five months. >> that's a smart point, which is what matters is much as anything is if the limelight comes off him that helps him. >> we are about ready to impeach a president over hunter biden. >> i call bs on that. at the end of the day he's not -- everybody else has gotten a pass. there has been no scrutiny of elizabeth warren and are policies and ideas in the past six months. it's goingll to beat her turn in the barrel and the will be that level ofle scrutiny for and thee

was to be scrutiny on him but that will bring her numbers down. >> i i think i said they were running a rose garden strategy and it doesn't work. you see him doing one event a day. ehe can't raise small dollar money plasticky doing fundraisers. fundraisers are hard to get ton, come , hard to travel to. it's highth octane. you have to be well briefed, well staffed. your entire operation hasgo to o there, , all kind security issu. so and if it a day is like some diner heod is stopping by the wy to go to a fundraiser. >> a photo op. >> that's an old school way, how many events a day did donald trump have? >> one, with 25,000 people. >> donald trump had saturation media coverage that joe biden will not have. >> my point is, and this is to the point. it's all media impressions.

>> here's the other thing, msnbc has chosen who the nominee, just like fox chooses ours. msnbc chooses theirs. first of all the talent, on-air talent that you can call roger ailes all you want to back in the day andnd he said i'm not going to tell you what to say. take a look at the daytime coverage. try and find in the last 100 days the last that elizabeth warren story. try to find one. you cannot find one. measure meeting mentioned on msnbc which is what 4 million of their 10 million voters watch every single day and try and find a bad elizabeth warren story. >> so the three of you guys were bullish on a couple of people a few months ago. again on the eve of the democratic debate we were handicapping this thing and you guys talk at that point about kaarriho is sort of agreed was maybe the best natural political athlete in the field. pete buttigieg, you guys that he

had the potential to really take off none of you were realized at that point on warren because of some of her vulnerabilities, the cubs of the rocky start to her campaign here howow impressed he you been with the way she is taken offurable is it? the word if you run her campaign should speak too soon especially cause she's about to go under the microscope and when you guys said she would be? >> the number show that her voters are not sold on her yet. if they can be persuaded and move off of her. she, unlike joe biden, is not an entirely known quantity. like, you have to a portrait of her to those voters with a very powerful tool. new information. information that they have not seen come information they have not heard, you have to drive. i still think and it was my premise that kamala need to hang around the hook because if biden comes down, were talking south

carolina, biden comes down, there's a lot of room her to maneuver in that situation. i don't know she controls yourno own fate. all i'm saying is you can't take your eyes off of her because of the lane she is in and was occupying that line. then there's the death match. bernie and elizabeth, right? right now she's handling clean his clock. my view, he still has a most donors, the most money but she is eating his boat share. we asked what is biden going to do to change the dynamics in the race? next question, , what is bernie going to do to change dynamics oneself in this race? is the godfather medicare for all and all these policies. she's dancing on some of the stuff and he is like the pure ideologue and she's playing politics with some of these issues. he will have to figure that out he has to figure that's in because she is blossoming. people in politics have second acts. there's going to be somebody in

this field that's going to get a second act three months from now, four much from the.hs >> to that point i think buttigieg, he's done an amazing job of hanging around. he got his little bit of spike, and but he didn't settle back down that much. he still sits around. for a guy who is mayor of a small town, he has done an amazing job and i think it is been out of his raw political talent, and he's from a generational standpoint, telegenic standpoint, he works for the democratic party ande is not so -- he might end up ironically gaining more from a biden coming down than harris. because harris, she's not, she hasn't done as well as i don't think anyone thought she would.

i feel like her campaign is been a little bit boring. as a candidate she's not as dynamic. i mean, shehecks a lot of boxes but she's not a dynamic candidate. >> you have to say it. >> what's that? >> marco rubio -- >> here's why. no matter whether you voted for marco, you work for other candidates and secretly told me you like marco, at the end of the day you listen to them and you are like, i like that. like he motivates me, inspires me. even if you disagreed with him he was inspirational. i don't see where she is inspiring anybody. >> pretty soon people live opportunities to have moments, it's way too early. >> here's thehe thing with kamaa harris if i'm running her campaign of veryor concerned about. the currency of the presidential campaign is moments. we get stuck in the turn of the screw every day with the new cycle but it's the moment that breaks do that the paper member.

kamala harris taken down joe biden in the first debate was the only real moment we've had in this campaign so far, in my opinion, and covering it. and she didn't capitalize on it in the way she needs to. to have that moment and to have all of the media coverage and a t-shirt thing printed and all the donations coming in, small dollar money that flood in her campaign, , and then a month lar she plateaued. that would be concerning to me. would it not for you can? >> real quick, , the important part o that is that it was a fabricated bs moment, and that any sort of cotton candy high she gut of it was immediately erased. when people said wait a minute, theyidt believe joe biden was a racist and he didn't believe she believed joe biden was a racist. it was a great talking point that she rehearsed in debate prep and a she waited for a moment. she delivered the talking point and everyone was t like that's great. wait a minute, that's not really fair. joe biden is not a racist.

i think she paid a price on the field and for being -- what matters more than anything else is authenticity or perceived authenticity and that didn't seem authentic. >> i think he's exactly right, that's what was marcos problem. there was a moment in june that carries much at all. the fact that matter is we have 24 million people watched the first debate. they had 14. all the ballyhooed democrat energy and all the stuff, there are not a lot of people paying attention still get. you have small dollars that are fueling the campaign, e, small igdollars that are required to make debate stages and save all these people searching way outside their comfort zones, when the weatherr would ever naturally be. senators that are literally cosponsoring bills that they could've cosponsored any time in their ten year career image of the day before they go on some road trip in an early primary sticker give a bunch of characters acting out of

character. they all know it. they are faking it. c it seems pretty mundane which is why biden hangs on and is more durable than he should've been. dan is right. just like baseball and play us, just like the ncaa tournament. you have to get hot at the right time. the top five will all get hot. i don't think anybody outside the top five has any gas in the tank. >> the wild-card game. >> anything can happen. >> a few months ago nobody would've thought they made it. her issue is she's not growing on stuff. her performance is not improving on stuff. that's her problem. but the identity politics is super strong on their side so counting her out is a fool's errand. >> let's talk warn. the energy grc now on the ground for her i think is unrivaled on

the democratic side at this point, and it's growing.th and the white house and the president's team, they were not concerned about war and as of four or five months ago. they were outright dismissive in many cases of worn for five months ago and they thought please, , lord, make her the nominee. we would love to face elizabeth warren. and i can tell from conversations with the same people that there's a lot more concern now than there was a van. >> wait, you mean the trump lyrical operation didn't have their finger on the pulse of the situation? >> that's right. >> if you guys running the white house political shop, if you're in charge of getting the president reelected, how worried are you about elizabeth warren seeing some of that organic enthusiasm in the base that hillary clinton was never able to manufacture? >> she's a wreck for the wdemocrats. >> why? >> if you say, if you pick out,

if you want to pick up freaky looking liberal, make them a college professor, have fake drinking or when you want to drink some hops foo foo do, like her. like, literally in the encyclopedia under a liberal extra professor. that's great, that's great for the street but that -- try that out in lubbock. try that out in outside of madison in wisconsin, in the wild counties. try it in the alabama between pittsburgh and philadelphia in pennsylvania. like, she doesn't sell anyway. she sells to a very eclectic liberal base. that's why you see her, she's a most clear andsi consistent and doesn't look like a freak show like bernie does. so she is like a newer version she's 70. she's a newer version of bernie,

and bernie got 50% of the vote in the democratic primary last time. we should've thought about this, the most liberal acceptable candidate will be a very strong contender in the primary and have no chance in the general. >> hillary 140 states. >> who did she pick? >> she has to pick buttigieg, now if he wasn't gay we wouldn't be talking about them. identity politics. you put elizabeth warren and pete buttigieg, blowout. >> you think so? >> blowout. >> are you guys nearly that bearish on worn? >> no. i mean look, i think that, i think they run a smart campaign. i think she is an awkward, i agree without all the name-calling and scriptures that jeff has done.

she's coming into, comfortable in her own skin that a little more. lot of stuff she did was crap and was contrived an awkward but it's better. i don't disagree but it's better and at the end of the day, americans want to elect a president they feel like they can have a beer with, that they can identify with. if you look back historically it is always the candidates who was more relatable. even sometimes neither one of them are relatable. at the end of the day hillary clinton was more awkward than donald trump are if you want some over at your house you want the crazy guy over who would say crazy shit and have a beer with. you say who is she? br problem is going to be at the end of the day can she be more relatable and comfortable in her own skin than trump, and that would be a problem for her. i don't think the blowout thing. politics and demographics don't like upper '40s dates anymore.

they just don't. >> these guys have both talked style in handicapping warns ability to wage a competitive general election against trump but a lot of democrats if you talk to them to be more worried about about this question of the middle-class tax hike which she has danced round the last few months. they would be worried about eliminating private insurance, et cetera, et cetera. if you are a republican strategist trying to defeat a nominee, elizabethth warren, how are you -- specifically, charged with running trump's campaign because another know the way he operates, stylistically. how do you go about attacking her in a general election? >> one, when we were in new hampshire in 15, if you drove outside of manchester, you drove north, soft to make things. you saw bernie signs and you saw trump signs. and so speedy usada vfw halls,

to. >> so from the perspective of, like trump protecting those northern states, there is a chance she could appeal to those kind of blue-collar workers. so like their strategic imperative needs to be told that line. if you get when you were without holding that line, these are blue-collar lower income, lower educated workers who have gone from like obama to trump. these are voters that move. they've got to hold that line at all costs. number one. number two is, he is probably one of the best counter punches we've ever seen politics. at the end of the day it is mono amano. he is for better or for worse dirty well defined. she is undefined. people don't know elizabeth warren and what they should do

is try the policy piece on socialism, left of center, extreme aspect of her agenda and impact is going have, get it, blue-collar workers in the states of michigan, and sylvania and wisconsin. i think we'll have held the time one winning wisconsin i think it's michigann and pennsylvania and if is able to do that effectively, mathematics for them improves tremendously. one more thing, like campaigns matter. they got more money, they're doing more voter contact, she's going to need to walk in, there's a lot of energy guide her, she's going to walk in and remake the democratic party overnight to be able to run the kind of grassroots operation that's necessary to winpe when we're alreadyar have one foot in the door, in my view. >> i want to build on that point about those dates and about warren's appeal because there's

a cta disconnect. on one hand she's a liberal college professor that is the way she's been painted effectively by republicans over the years. >> shehe is. >> that's not speedy that's the way she sells her self. >> i think she's begun to recognize -- >> socialized medicine and a college professor. >> she also came from a low-income family. she taught special education. she put herself through law school. there's a different part of her biography -- >> she had help in the admissions process. >> we are not going down that route. >> you want > to listen to elizabeth warren for six months? >> no way. >> here's the disconnect i'm getting too. i've been out on the stump with her andre there is i think an initial visceral reaction you'll see some voterss have two hurt n the first five minutes there listen to her. but i seen this firsthand. by the end of her talk your big news and carhart jackets and camouflage hats crying again for speeches because with connecting

with people on pocketbook issues on weight dr. carson to this segment a coupleum months ago. he said the trump people are underestimating her at their own risk because she has an ability to connect on the economic populism the same way trump -- in middle america. >> any other vessel that's exactly right. it's just not her. >> you just think there's no way she can close -- >> i cannot in any world. any other person on the stage with that same message and same ability to connect, joe biden is a terrible outcome for us. >> you think so? >> yes. terrible outcome. the message i got, the people on the news, like who he going to pay so trump carries the electoral college i three states,, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. everybody wants to treat trump like he's a political phenomenon in some ways is probably a

than al phenomena more political phenomenon but donald trump one fewer votes in wisconsin in 2016 than mitt romney in 2012. is it trump when the state or zip hillary losing the states? no question there. the issue for worn or biden or any of these folks is, if you want to concentrate on michigan wisconsin pennsylvania you can forget about florida, north carolina. if you flip those three states you win the presidency. jeff, you feel like biden is a slamdunku in those three state? >> i do want is a slamdunk but he is a big problem. you get all speed do you think is a slamdunk? >> i don't know how, i do not trump would be can interstate. >> so biden is is the nominee e wins? >> yes. highly likely to win if he's the nominee. >> danny? >> so last cycle michigan elected gretchen. instead of a republican meeting

the present on the tarmac at the very appealing, very effective democratic governor album. they already had ed.d. in pennsylvania. we have went to stay in wisconsin. he's much less of a political dynamo. i can't express enough, oakland county will be a problem. like wayne county would be a problem. he's got to, the spread or he can't win in michigan, like that's the play and in the upper peninsula. it is these economic blue-collar voters were talking about. he wasn't that far off in new hampshire. she wasn't that far off in arizona. there's way you work for map in different scenarios, these three, that's what people will be watching on election night 100%. >> if you look at those states, every one of those states, pennsylvania, wisconsin throw in florida, all those states all have a republican running for senate who outperformed trump on

the ballot. none of the states have republican running for senate. none of them. there's no ron johnson, marco rubio, pat toomey to help drag trump across the line in the suburban voters in those places will say, hey, he's kind of offensive but had to go vote for the senate a candidate, i mights well vote a straight party ticket. >> you talked about electability fools gold. this is is where it's interesting with some like worn or bernie who has faded but we don't count out get -- like warren -- , in michigan trump ws by 10,000 votes and hillary clinton underperform barack obama by 200,000 votes. she just does not turn up college educated white women. she does not turn up black voters. if you have democrat who even performs at marginally better levels than clinton 16, 16, thn trump is in real trouble because it's hardd to see his ceiling g

higher in aal state like michig. do disagree?at >> completely. that's like rerunning the last campaign. you can't rewrite the last campaign. it has noo bearing. we all know now if you're a republican or a center-right, you now have reason to vote for him that you didn't have before. before it was simply a lesser of two evils. now you're going to make a choice for the future the country. i did know when i voted for and what does go you get. i thought there was an outsideht chance he might put his sister on the supreme court. i thought he might be for gun control. i didn't thinkt would be for pro-life judges. i had no idea what he would be. there's not a lot of energy. was just who you want to not listen to for the next for years and she was worse than him. this is a different thing now. if you are a center-right person you have something in the last four years that you can boldly go fight for in the next camping. much different than his first one. >> if that's t case, devil's

advocate, why in the state of michigan last all do you have the governors mansion flip? your two congressional seats flip. the ag flip every meaningful statewide office. >> 50%0% turnout, which was a story. we. have seen a turnup like that since 1914. look at the turnout. college-educated, younger, more diverse. let's play 2020. turnout does this, all at 65 plus, who is turning out? a lot of voters who didn't show up in 18 or trump voters. they will focus on w those peope like a laser beam. they will look at their mathematics into whatever it is, 16% earn a come whatever it is that what's the% difference ifi turn those people out? i'm going to go find a register these additional people and that's how i get there. the mistaken lookingt at 18 is yet to look at who showed up and who didn't. those people who didn't show up in 18 were his voters. they are going to show up in

2020 for the reasons he gave. like, it's a given. if they can turn the turnout even higher under in then there's again. i think there's a discounting of his base. he's that 90% with republican voters. 90%. these people are going to show up on his behalf. >> i'm sure this is a phenomenon you guys have paid attention to. there is a world in which you can see how somebody's approval rating with self-identified republican voters is high but the party itself is shrinking simultaneously. that's a dangere lf for trump, danger for people of both parties. >> you are 90% when more people acome embarrassed to say i'm republican. >> you take the republican party used to be just on the middle class, lower middle class right in there, all the way up the high-end.

if you make one of $50,000, family a format, or a republican. trump has realized the party as president to do and he's brought that number down to if you have $150,000 annual income, a family of four you probably vote democrat but we're getting people that are not, he is getting people that are not behaviorally republican. he's getting the lower middle class. >> but he's also losing people who -- >> he's shaking out the poor democrats. the rich are not democrat. the realignment is happening, but we are still republican party might be small but the democratic party is smaller. he is getting folks votes no republican has ever gotten. >> the realignment, the spin the men on this because -- >> they are walking to i. >> when you see a few months ago the trump wrote what people are chanting center back in reference to omar, the six class example.

i was talking some of trump political team and his concern was wend fire up the base with e stuff but for everyone base voter we mobilize with this kind of thing, do we alienate a traditionally republican voter in the suburbs, two-car garage, 100k plus year income, then pulled the lever for republicans like clockwork. that's the issue speed is another example of the trump clinical team missing it. it's not the base they are firing. i don't think his political tea gets it. he started up those people in macomb county, those blue-collar lower middle class swing voters who care about the economy that feel like people are taking the jobs and it is being shipped overseas. not the base. >> what you're talking about, suburban swing mom baseball, this is his -- guess what, , hes got to do. guess who else have to do it. elizabeth warren.

she's going to need to say how a government takeover of the education system, of the healthcare system, how a redistribution of wealth is a good idea. nobody is talking about or paying attention to it but they will and we will assign a number per household per person on this we creation of what the american economy looks like in her view and i find it hard to believe that people are going to support it. >> you mention macomb county. let's think on this for for a e when you talk but realigning the electorate. macomb county is home to the fabled reagan democrats were written about in the '80s by the democratic pollster. i grew up next door and it's interesting talk but fighting the last war. macomb county is no longer the bellwether of michigan. macomb county except for this next election would want our loss. it will be an open county. in those counties that's where

you have these two congressional districts glcm the 11th and the eightht in michigan by two young democratic candidates who ran really good citrus campaigns and they unseated incumbent republicans would gotten fat and happy and complacent. the issue is, if you're a democrat and using the blueprint from 2018, are you worried about somebody like elizabeth warren not being able to connect with thoseub suburban affluent republican voters put it willing to vote for a blue dog democrat brought it willing to vote for a very progressive democrat? >> i was goingng to say this is the strategy of it all. it's not oakland county. it's about trump needs to vilify his opponents in oakland county to make them think this is not our kind of guy, we think he is offensive, we think he says awful things. but at least he's not a socialist or this or that. but he's going to get more votes.

he's not going to win macomb but he's going to get more votes out of macomb that any republican in a traditional republican, that is the math for him. >> but he will lose more and those other counties? >> yes, but not if you make the issue his opponent. he does an amazing job. he is at his best politically when he has an opponent. when he doesn't have an opponent he's a hot mess. but when heas has an opponent to like focus on, he gets really good and he's going to make them the issue in the open county of the world. >> i want to do a lightning round which is anybody statement and i am going to make a democratic presidential candidate who are still technically in the race and ani might almost every day of someone who is theoretically still running. witches forget they are still running. i want you to tell me that our life, they had no chance, alive there still a a slight chance y could resurrect themselves like mike huckabee.

i'm talking about for the democratic nomination. let's start with buttigieg. go down the line, buttigieg dead or alive? >> he's alive. >> barely alive. >> barely alive? >> yes. >> there's no chance to be the nominee. >> so he's dead. >> there's a a marginal chance. he's barely alive. >> kamala? >> alive. >> alive. >> very much so. >> was even more bullish on her. >> i believe she checks a lot of boxes for them, and if biden declined she has an opportunity. whether she takes the opportunity, but i think she is a live. >> your boy, bento, robert francis o'rourke. >> i thought the reason why sucking away because he lost his base, the media. and so when immediately should they never come back.

i thought they might come back going to tragedy and easterly talk about guns and trump-pence i thought maybe he had his second act but that was leaving and didn't t work. he still on his bandage a road trip and doesn't have a chance went. >> a perfect example of modern-day politics. he with sexy muchh more the concept who he is running against because of who we was. he's running against darth vader himself. he suddenly became oh, he's blowing air drums in the whataburger drive-through. who does that? he was a caricature of who he wasn't, so he was never a light candidate, ever. >> the next time he does a facebook like and nobody will watch. >> i assume you guys are a all safe burn ism alive, but are you surprised the degree to which he has struggled at this point in the race? now, you do have statewide .

festival shows he's hanging around the midteens, the high teens but it is difficult to sen with elizabeth warren continuing to steal his vote share, it's difficult to see his hal to vaguely so how do you assess the? >> alive and well. his images still good and he is getting chopped out on both sides but he's most dominant liberal in the liberal turnout election and he's got 1 million people give him 25 bucks every month.h. the as way of life. he can outlast everybody. but it does require, can he wil not take n anything back. it's going to b given to and as we all learned come when your strategy was in somebody else failing, it's not a very good strategy. and so because of that he probably will not make it but he can't create his own wave. he has to write other people's to get back into it. but he's got 15% and he hasn't done anything that he hasn't done the last 20 years. i think he is alive.

>> look, he's alive but the problem for him is you can't put lightning and the bottle a second time. he was new and energetic and -- ten seconds or ten minutes? got it. he was new, energetic, but he's alive but it's going to be really tough for him. >> i'm not sure i know the play friend but he's m got the most money, the most donors and people are voting for him. he has a play for sure. >> jeff, you just talk about strategy of waiting for someone to defeat themselves, which is think a lot of you guys were guilty of with trump with exception of jeb. the two of you guys, rubio and cruz,nd were operating under strategy either trump not last or he did not want to last, eventually he would not be there, i would.

>> i still don't believe he wanted to last. >> but are you surprised at how nice this democratic primary has been so far? we've not seen the nice coming out any meaningful way. it still only late september but at this point in late september you guys are shopping ben carson down our throats. >> that is not fake news. >> are you surprised at how nice he soaks up playing with each other? >> i don't get their inbox i don't know if they're doing that now or not. it's a different thing. the negative works come nobody wants to go first pick somebody will have to strap the proverbial levitical bomb to their chests. we already see what happened when swallowed did that so somebody has tot, do it with stature. we saw what happened to kamala when she did it. it was up and. there is a risk of going first here right now you really don't have to take the chance to bet

your entire lyrical fortune in a presidential race that you dreamed of since birth, you actually don't have to make thae move in september. you have to make that move in december. >> i disagree with your premise completely. i think the democrats can look at these debates. at this point in time we were all nice to each other. we were jamming their inbox but we were all civil when you came -- >> no. the third republican debate? >> jeff and marco went nuclear on each other. >> think about it. that was -- that and one of million dollars of jeb super pac money. >> there we go. this is what the people came to see. >> sometimes hurt feelings can't get fixed. >> talk to jeb about that. >> no, look, at the end of the day, i mean, early on in the debates you at come all hairs

calling joe biden pervasive. other candidates calling candidates a a social. >> that was not the kind of -- >> they are trading plenty of paint. >> yes. >> the insider thing, social scope how you going to pay for? >> the people who are viable to win the nomination in your view, bernie, biden, even kamala. but to your point. nobody is late a finger i think on war and yet. >> you punch up, you don't punch down. until now it's been if you go after war and it's been punching denver everybody's going after biden. look, she's in the hotseat now and so now it's going to be we're going to go after her. >> i want to close with a couple of things, republican centric and trump centric. the first thing i'm curious to know is, obviously if a look at on paper right now the fundamentals of this reelect campaign, you got unemployment low, and economynt doing really would will.

everyone's 401(k) is thriving. there is no reason that the incumbent president can't break for 3% approval with those conditions except he continues to be as polarizing as he is. if you guys are in charge of his campaign getting him reelected, what is the one thing, if you have his ear you concordant and oval and there's a chance you might listen to your advice, what is the one thing you tell him to say, mr. president, you've got to get out of your own way. here's what i want you to stop doing. what's the one thing you tell them? >> good question. it's impeachment. impeachment provides him such an opportunity that otherwise hert would not have. impeachment is like the turtle on the fence post. you don't know how it got there. clearly somebody did it but it's all bs. you don't want to be the one caught taking it down. like this is his opportunity to run against the entire democrat establishment. he can go into swing house seats and go put those people were democrats will have to be the ones to kill impeachment, not

republicans and the city. he can win this impeachment fight, his reelection is not impeachment picky ones that in a real way, i don't come all the other fundamentals are too strong. remember that like i think o at all the coverage that's like the seven things happen and who'sge going to win? and, of course, he predicted by the way he would get impeached, that guy with those same fundamentals, trump would get reelected. it's too hard to change the course of the country when these many things going right. >> you didn't tell me something you would tell him to stop doing. >> oh, stop doing? >> yes, , to get out of his onl. >> tweeting. if he tweeted 10% less would help. >> 10%? >> a lot of the people love that he fights. >> i would tell him stop listening to the smart people. he isth president because he trusted his own instincts. everybody on the stage thought they were insane. he should tweet less come he

should do this, he should do that, he should get out of its own way. no. look, cory lewandowski to his credit made really smart decision in the campaign which is know, let trump be trump. all the smart people he surrounds himself with now working for other candidate inwe the primary. kellyanne was working for you guys to defeat them and she couldn't do it. stop listening to them and trust your gut. whether you like it or not it is worked for him. >> it's really hard. it doesn't happen very often and -- stop not talking about the economy. it's like double, triple, quadruple down on an economy were about half the people think it's good. if he writes that until this time next year, his chances of becoming president is stop, not talked about the comic. >> one of the questions i get a lot when i been out on the trail promoting my book, american

cards, i'll be signing it later, you should come get a copy, is this question of republican loyalty to the president, and how is it as he once said if so, i get you some in the middle of fifth avenue and they will still vote for me and that is largely been borne out. peoplele ask, what do you make what do you attribute to this incredible loyalty, this unwavering loyalty that republicans have two-dollar trump? what i want to know from you guys is, if we had a president ted cruz right now or a president marco rubio right now or a a president jeb bush right now, do you still think that the republican base would be as fiercely devoted to them as they have been to trump? and if not, why? >> it's a polarized country, number one. number two is, the russian thing, they kavanaugh thing, this thing. it has further push people into their corners and heightened the

partisanship. look, i think any one of those fine gentleman would be doing well with republicans. the reason he's doing extraordinary is republicans is in part due to that, and so the politics late has graded the situation we have in front of us come in my view. >> i couldn't agree more with danny on that. look, we are in a hyper, not just partisan type like everybody, it's very tribal, extremely common. everybody is part of the tribe everybody else is wrong. but donald trump is a better job than any other -- does a betr job than any other human being on the planet of throwing gasoline on that and really inciting tribalism. >> nobody asked the democratic strategist complexes loyalty to hillary clinton? anytime is republican who is flawed, to codify everything

done and subscribe some loyalty oath -- >> trump came into -- >> noble as the running for u.s. senate if the thought hillary clinton should resign over e-mail. >> nobody asked theht question. we get asked every segment of every single day because some tweet that he said. that's never happened at the way, but the reality is none of our bosses, my boss wouldn't have pointed kavanaugh, , he would've wanted someone more conservative but none of o our bosses would have stopped with tablet. they would have cut bait with them when things were getting south. >> he might not have been -- >> the reality is trump is a guy who will fight them, we are sick and tired of the pc police think of it and we do, accusing every republican fall these bad things. not only because the democrats and the media cry fire drills

every single time he does anything -- >> the media is a single greatest speeches if every republican thought -- >> if i held barack obama and hillary clinton's 2008 2008 pon on gayay marriage today and i espoused it on the stage can look, i don't think you should be allowed to marry if you are gay, it's not that i'm wrong. ik would be like booed here i would be a bigot, hatemonger and it that attack as as a conserve we are like, there's such a shift and such we feel so judged as conservatives that donald trump is the middle finger back to the media. >> you are not just wrong, you are evil. >> close onmi this request is because i'm getting the wrap up son. i want a percentage, a percentage of each of you, percentage chance donald trump loses the election next november, percentage chance. >> that's like to use running against? >> it doesn't matter. >> i mean, i think he's a 65

favorite. >> 65% hein wins. >> i would say 60% when he but that's like donald trump and this environment, i mean, hell, who knows, he could be impeached then.n now and like there's a whole hell of a lot of -- that's just a guess. it's i guess. >> he could be impeached, which is basically being indicted. there will never be a trial where he is kicked out of office in the united states senate because we control the senate, number one. number two, 55% chance he gets reelected. >> folks, we're out of time. we want to thank the great people at the "texas tribune" for having us. [applause] and i need to thank pfizer for the wonderful sponsorship, thank my brilliant panels here for making this sound smart.

stick around for the next panel. jim jordan and mark meadows and chip roy, it will be a fun conversation and i'll be signing copies of my twice affirmation book at noon. this guy has a copy. thank you, guys here [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] there's a look at life events coming up today on the c-span networks.