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tv   Washington Journal  CSPAN  October 28, 2012 7:00am-10:00am EDT

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madonna. robert gleason and josh shapiro, chairman of the montgomery board of commissioners. "washington journal" is next. ♪ host: good morning. you may want to call this endorsement sunday with a number of newspapers issuing their support for president obama and gov. romney. the toledo blade, it endorses the president. in iowa, pledging their support for mitt romney. the white house announcing the president has canceled a planned event in virginia tomorrow. the returning to monitor
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hurricane at sandy. the president will join president clinton and a monday afternoon campaign appearance. mitt romney has scrubbed his appearances today, instead spending the next two days in ohio. just over one week ago in the campaign. we will be talking about early voting on "the washington journal." we want to begin with the what this question. what if it is not decided on election day? what if there is a recount or multiple recounts? let's begin with some news of the morning. the front page of "the new york times. marty it is now counted by county.
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-- it is now county by county. there is also this from "the washington post." va. even as being scrubbed for a number of candidates. the scheduled destruction did not stop the two candidates from delivering attacks on each other yesterday. the president of using his of parents to accuse mitt romney of raising taxes on middle class when he was governor of massachusetts. the question we are focusing on
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this morning is, what if there is an election dispute? we are basing it apart on a story that has this. election disputes likely. we already posted the question on the facebook page. some of you have already weighed in on this. give us a call. you can almost -- you can also
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send us an e-mail or join us on our twitter page. if you remember election night -- or maybe we should say election morning 12 years ago -- let's go back to cbs news's coverage of the race between george bush and al gore. >> let's point out what the television networks are using a pool of data and exit poll of permission and other ever mission have made some mistakes over the night, the big one meeting in florida, first calling it for al gore and then for george bush and calling it back. television and radio networks are not the only ones who had to take some calls. >> this is one that called it
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for bush. they came out with a new addition, they called it a nail biter. when it -- it was a hunch. when it happened to us, it was based on technology. it is kind of scary what we are basing this on tonight. >> they may yet be right to enter the case of the chicago tribune, and they were wrong but. it still could be right. they pulled a back. >> a denture fairness to our core, he was probably listening to us. >> he and his people. no doubt about it. florida's electoral votes, look at the map. the reason florida is and why it is because this state remains undecided as of this hour.
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a recount has been ordered. we will not know who carries the state of florida. it is completely and decisive for a number of hours. >> you remember so well what happened 12 years ago. it did go to the supreme court. one of the closest elections with al gore winning the popular vote and george bush won in the electoral college vote. what if that happens again in 2012? caller: i am just glad the question -- most of the calls the, and. host: joining us from pine bluff, arkansas. is -- what happens next if there is an election dispute?
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caller: they have to be sure they are ready for recounting. here is the problem right now. there were so many states that were trying to do a voter suppression with the idea laws, now we have won the most of that. now we have to be careful that the accurate count is given. everybody in the campaign has to be ready for recounting. if it goes to the supreme court, but we have to go there. host: are you still there? caller: it must be fair. host: from our twitter page -- steve is joining us from virginia on the republican line. caller: there is no such thing
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as a voter suppression, that is just silly. there is a voter fraud as was revealed by james keene where he recorded the son of jim moran telling somebody how to commit of voter fraud. there are lots of dead people that are registered. that was the purpose of this to get the dead people off of the voter rolls. the process is going forward in virginia. everybody who registers in virginia gets a voter i.d.. it is a responsibility. a lot of people did not want to have anything to do with responsibility. host: thank you for the call. eight romney ryan white house,
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it could happen. -- a romney-biden white house, it could happen. the magic number is 270 electoral college votes to win the big prize. according to the web site, there are now 11 battleground states and statistically, 32 possibilities for up for grabs it states that could produce a 269 vote electoral college tight end. based on this site's simulated polls, the mathematical probability of a tie increasing almost fourfold in recent weeks. it runs the various scenarios of what happens if it goes to the u.s. house of representatives. this is a scenario where mitt romney and joe biden could win.
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the democrats have control of the senate, and the republicans have control of the house of representatives. brenda is on the phone from north carolina. is there is an election dispute, what happens next? thatr: let's hope and pray we do not have an election dispute. with the supreme court appointing george bush in 2000, that will not be good for the country. we need to make sure that everybody votes that has been ready to vote. there are a loud and not antagonized anything to make sure everybody gets their vote in. that is a right of all people regardless of what political party >> if you are an american
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citizen, it is important we all vote. host: to look for the call. a couple of comments from our facebook page. from our independent line from athens, tenn.. caller: it seems like there is a group of people, they want criminals to vote, the illegal aliens to vote. they cry that they are being repressed. i even heard when democrats say they're republicans or changing the time this coming week. all across the nation, it is the falling back of the time. that was part of the republican
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conspiracy. i am more fearful of the black panthers. i am more fearful of moran from virginia. i am more concerned about the dead people that will be voting. that is what i am concerned about. host: thank you for the call. brett is on the phone from florida. caller: i believe if there is a tie, it comes down to recount and a questionable outcome. if it goes in favor of mitt romney, -- republican, but i am leaning toward obama. if mitt romney wins, the 47% are
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not going to be happy. i am a republican, but it seems like if you vote for mitt romney, you are voting for the future. i am disabled and have children. i kind of feel selfish of five votes for obama because it might help us now. if i thought for mitt romney it might help -- if i voted my, children down the road. host: the earlier caller talking about voters oppression. a couple of editorials we want to share with you. from mitt romney's hometown of in detroit. top reasons to re-elect barack obama is what the editorial says. with a myriad of conflicts that
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enter the middle east, not to mention the u.s. tense relations with china and russia, the president has to have a steady, learned hand on the tiller. mitt romney does not have that hand. obama's first term prove he can deliver at home under the worst imaginable circumstances, battling multiple crisis that individually would have saw lesser presidents. abroad, obama has restored american credibility and influence that was frittered away by george bush. with a refocus on job security and long-term sustainability, his second four years could impress even more. from the democrats' line in georgia. caller: thank you for taking my call. i am very frustrated. first of all, i think it should be recounted because -- to vote
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no. democrats are independent. they kept only those that was for republicans. no. 2, from the galago that became citizens suddenly be allowed to vote. i remember when i change my address from the same city to a different address, it was an election year. i would have had to wait until the next election before i was allowed to vote. i have been a vote for quite a long time, and i vote absentee because i am in a wheelchair. i think it is and average the way it is so forceful to get mitt romney into the office.
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nobody bothered to look -- when you start drilling and digging, we are allowed to be over populated. nobody bothered to check if we have enough land or water. the list goes on and on. host: thank you for the call. this is from jan. what happens if there is a recount or an election dispute? the numbers are on the bottom of the screen. also facebook and our e-mail address. from the "philadelphia inquirer .:
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we will turn more to pennsylvania later in the program as we focus on 10 key battleground states. another editorial we want to share with the from the des moines and register, which in the past it endorsed democrats. the last time it endorsed a republican was richard nixon. we will talk to the editorial page editor and a couple of minutes. next is april from georgia on the independent line. if there are election disputes, what happens next? caller: good morning. i just want to comment that i hope no recount is needed because i hope everybody that is registered actually does vote. if there is a recount, i pray it is decided fairly.
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i want to add two mark, as quickly. i do not think there will be any riots of dentistry because we are a civilized society. unfortunately, it is coming down to white people are scared of black people. i think the fear is presenting itself in this election. is disappointing in 2012. host: thank you for your call. from "the weekly standard."
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meanwhile, a new ad out regarding what would happen if there was a recap from the state of florida. 537 is the title of the ad. [video clip] >> florida is too close to call. what's the difference between what was and what could have been. this year if you are thinking your vote does not count and it will not matter, back then and there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. make your voice heard. a vote. host: that is from the obama campaign released the past week as a reminder of what happened
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12 years ago in florida. if you are joining us on c-span radio, we are asking the question, if there is an election dispute or multiple recounts, what happens next? if there is an electoral college tie. richard is on the phone from pennsylvania on the democrats' line. caller: good morning. i hope there is not sufficient evidence that we need a recount. however, there are several things that are leading to the controversy already. we have heard the stories about the republicans hiring people that have been destroying the registrations. we have heard about the absentee ballots. in pennsylvania it is more than 1 ounce, so you have to put
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more postage on it. luckily, the post office will deliver it anyway. there is also a problem from what i understand is one of romney's sons has invested in the voting machines that are being used in the election. it sounds a little fishy. host: thank you for the call. there is this from riders. -- reuters.
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anita is on the phone from florida. caller: good morning. i just have a couple of comments. i would hope that americans want to do what is best for the country and do i get a central a legal battle. -- do what is best for the country and do not get a in a legal battle. everybody i talked to believes that we need to get rid of the electoral college. we are not running around on horses because people cannot get to the polls. we need to make sure our vote
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counts. my vote can only count when we get rid of the electoral college. host: thank you for the call. this is from ronald. next is brett from louisiana. caller: i think mayor romney and his campaign think they have to have a blow out to really be able to govern. i think if it will be close, it will only be closed for obama. one comment about the 47%. i do not know about the rest of the country, down here there are usually two or three generations of people in houses on welfare and government assistance. how are you going to help those people when the democrats keep helping them stay where they are at? host: 2 like for the call. a quick trip 2016. looking at the economy and trade
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with china. not long ago the u.s. had a global economy all to itself. it was the dominant producer of consumer goods. the romney campaign focusing heavily as it has on jobs and the economy, issue in this new add a few days ago. [video clip] >> let me tell you how i will create 12 million jobs when president obama could not. first, my energy independence policy means more than 3 million new jobs.
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my tax reform plan to lower rates for the middle class and for small business creates 7 million more. expanding trade, cracking down on china, and improving job training the texas to over 12 million new jobs. -- takes us to 12 million new jobs. host: barack obama for reelection, pointing out the economy is slowly recovering from the 2008 meltdown.
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the editorial this morning from "the new york times. if there is an election dispute, what happens next? caller: this only proves the factory on of the republicans stole the election. one lady was right, the electoral college is crap. if mitt romney gets an, are we going to war right now? we need to take care of our people and our country here. all we are doing is finding reasons to get involved into other countries when obama and everyone else wants to focus on what is going on in in america today. mitt romney says we will crack down on china. how about the china alone. let's be -- let's do what we need to do in this country. everything is really screwed up. it will be sometime -- we know
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people are playing with the system. host: thank you for the call. from "the patriot news," in pennsylvania. it is expected to hit landfall possibly new jersey, delaware monday night and tuesday morning. next is a bill from illinois, on the republican line. caller: good morning. i would like to make a real quick, before i answer your question. this is for your program editor. i would like to see you guys having both the republican and democrat on at the same time
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instead of having us spoonfed from one party or the other. host: we are doing that today with representatives from the republican and democrat party. caller: great. i do not know what the american people should feel there would ever be a chance for an equal decisive decision on this dispute. number one, when the black panthers were intimidating voters in chicago and arizona, the attorney general refused to investigate. al franken who won the election and minnesota, a politico said there were 4000 illegal votes that helped al franken win the election. host: that goes to the very issue we are talking about. we have seen it in state races. we saw it in 2000. the election system is not perfect, and they're off laws. -- there are flaws.
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from "the new york daily news." dale is on the phone from new mexico. good morning. caller: thank you for having me on. i cannot believe your last caller. the only reason the black panthers were there was to make sure the skinheads did not get in the way of people voting. as far as they're being a problem with the election, it is possible. i think is a very possible. one of these days, maybe you can help us out and put an elementary teacher on exploiting with the electoral college is. i do not know why we have it.
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host: we will certainly be talking about that this week and next week because it is an important civics lesson. by the way, in case you're interested, we have a c-span in the classroom website that focuses on the process of electing officials. it is a free service. go to and you will learn more about among other things the electoral college. "the new york post." another ad from the obama campaign. [video clip] >> in here, it is just you. no ads, no debates, just you. think about this, mitt romney's
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plan rose back regulations on the banks across the economy, medicare vouchers. millionaires will get one of the largest tax cuts ever while middle-class families pay more. that is what mitt romney wants to bring here. remember that when you go here. host: back to your calls. if there is an election dispute, what happens next? jim is on the republican line from alabama. caller: i just had a quick comment about some of the postings that i saw you had on the facebook posting about saying if obama were not elected there would be riots in the street. i really do not believe that it will be an election dispute. i think mitt romney is probably going to win overwhelmingly. i think every honest american 2016 go see the obama
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movie or rented on the redbox. i do not know what is wrong with america. people believe they do not have to go to work and make a living now. expect the government to supply their living for them. host: thank you for the call. are we a democracy or a republic? if we end the alleged world college will be a democracy -- eventual tyranny. gale on the independent line. caller: high. what i find absolutely shocking
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is the fact that none of your callers have rocked and the influence that grover norquist has on this election. -- have brought in the influence that grover norquist has on this election. if there is a tie, he is the most influential person in terms of throwing money around. if this person is not on board with these contracts that he has had well over 90% of the republicans signed, he said he will make them coast. he said that on 60 minutes. i think is so shocking that people in the united states do not understand the power that he has. he is an elected. he is responsible for answering to nobody. host: thank you for the call. we want to bring your attention to "the new york times."
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following the third and final debate that took place in broker tom, florida, this ad focusing on foreign policy issues from the romney campaign. [video clip] >> the president began an apology toward. going to various nations and criticizing america. the reason i call it an apology tour. you went to the middle east and flew to egypt, saudi arabia, turkey, and iraq. he skipped israel, our closest friend in the region. america has not dictated to other nations. we have three other nations from dictators. >> i am mitt romney, and i approve this message. host: the headline from the des moines register --
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based on all of that, the editorial page endorsing mitt romney. joining us live on the fund is the editor of the newspaper. to look for being with us. -- thank you for being with us. white mitt romney? caller: as we pointed out, just
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like a lot of voters we explored and examined a very long list of issues. we continue to come back to something that we have seen repeatedly in our own polling and countless interviews and countless encounters with everybody from farmers to every day iowans, business executives about two things. the political climate, but even more important and that is the economy. an uncertain future for a lot of people as it relates to jobs and meaningful salaries and features. as we said down and deliberately, it was the economy that was front and center for us in terms of who can best jump started, who can pull us out of the doldrums. who can position as not necessarily looking back at the past four years but the next four years. it is for the editorial decided to focus on gov. romney.
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but let me share two. . to go back to the editorial with this question, which candidate can forge this question, does or endorsement matter? caller: i absolutely believe so. this is not a battle cry for mitt romney supporters to go out there and vote for the governor. what this is is that iowa is an incredibly unique state filled
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with incredibly smart to voters and readers of the des moines register and other publications. we have had the incredibly in the perspective an opportunity over the past 24-30 months to take a close look at gov. romney's campaign. even before that going back to the 2008 cycle, both senator obama at the time and gov. romney, spending time with the editorial board. we have talked to the candidates. we have really explore the issues. is our endorsement matter? i think it does. it has been a century at least since we have endorsed a presidential candidate. it is part of our tradition. politics is indeed dna of the des moines register. we take very seriously the first in the nation status as a caucus state.
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we take seriously the ability to affect candidates that are not on the radar screen until after they emerge from iowa. -very informal opportunity to st down over coffee to talk about what is in front of us. what is the position for that. i do think our endorsement matters. we probably spent a lot of time doing diligence and being thoughtful in all of our conversations, particularly the final one to support governor mitt romney. host: we are talking with the editor of the des moines register. the me ask you about the process. you had a telephone conversation that ran 30 minutes with the president. the white house said it was off the record. and it was released in the published the transcript on there website.
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you had a different face to face meeting with governor mitt romney. did any of them make a difference? caller: initially the white house had asked for an off the record five or 10 minute conversation. we protested. i spoke with the obama campaign and said, this should be on the record. they said they would try to get it on the record, but we never heard back. the next day we had a conversation with the president, it was so important. when he talked about needed to be shared. that was the reason for the call that i had written. did it play a role in the decision making? absolutely not. i said at the time, considering what unfolded at the white house and the campaign staff, as it related to transparency -- we
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had met several days before that incident and the direction we wanted to go with the editorial. it was already kind of drafted. it did not have a central role at all with where we were. host: the published past editorials over the past 100 years. the first endorsement was william howard taft in 1912. more recently, you have to go back to 1972, the last time your newspaper endorsed a republican. since then jimmy carter twice, walter mondale, michael dukakis, bill clinton, al gore, and john carry, and barack obama. caller: when this editorial board said down, we did not look at who has an r or d behind his name.
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the whole conversation focal point was the economy. what is best for the next four years. partisanship was set aside to examine the issues that i once care the most about, an issue that is at a high level on the national level. it has to be in a bipartisan way. this thread state, blue state gridlock that we find ourselves and as a nation is not just being saw in washington, it is being saw all over the country. i think there is a growing demand from voters -- i think this election will probably prove it -- they want washington to work. the one there to be leadership. there has to be an effort from somebody to reach across the aisle and make something happen
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with another party. when we sat down and really thought about where we wanted to go with this, we looked at the list. host: let me bring up one other point. we are focusing on the demo in registered in part because of mitt romney spending half hour with you and the presidents spending almost half of an hour on the phone. they clearly view your endorsement as important. caller: i think so. they both told us how much they wanted our endorsement. unlike previous years where and presidential cycles you would have candidates camp out in iowa for several months, the iowa caucus happens. everybody disappears. for the most part, our electoral votes are considered pretty irrelevant. that has changed this year. every state matters. we are fortunate enough to be
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one of the swing states. six electoral votes are a critical part of the formula for both campaigns. i know the demolition register has a great voice and influence in the state. it has a responsibility to prevent the candidates-- vett the candidates. that is what we did last item published this morning. thank you for being with us. a couple of other headlines we want to share with the from "the washington post." some the polling numbers show the president continues to hold a lead, but it is a dwindling lead it. the sidebar story from ed keene.
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back to your calls. lisa is on the phone from georgia on the democrats' line. caller: i feel like the law will work and it will work to protect our people. i feel that will not happen. i feel as if this particular man, mitt romney, he needs to go. he has lied. i didn't know why people believe in a man who is going to take away women's rights to choose. that to me is the worst, worst in this election. i said as a woman, a mother. you need to protect who you are as a person. for people to sit there and vote for a man -- i pray for everybody who is voting every day for this man.
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this man here is a dangerous man. i feel as if he is not here for you. host: thank you for the call. there is this on our facebook page. our last call is mary from tennessee on the republican line. caller: i think it will be a landslide. when people look at how obama abandon our four heroes in benghazi but he can send 13 secret service people on spring break, people will realize the difference between the two men. we will not abandon our soldiers again. these four were left out there on their own. to me, that is just a disgrace. that has never happened in this country before. we need to get out and vote and get our country back to america.
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we need to take care of our people and not just be a bank that hands out checks to welfare people to 17,000 a month that he is putting on disability. medicare is going broke, and i have never paid a dime into it. host: thank you for all of your calls and tweets and comments on facebook. we will continue with this topic with polls showing at a close race across the country. coming up in a couple of minutes, we turn our attention to the issue of early voting. later we continue our series on battleground states. today pennsylvania. bobby jackson keeping track of the sunday morning programs that can be heard on c-span radio.
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>> good morning. on today because the network tv talk shows, campaign 2012 and hurricanes and the leading the discussions. at noon it is "meet the press." john kerry said from ohio. wisconsin republican scott walker. -- john kasich from ohio. also former republican presidential candidate newt gingrich. on fox news sunday, chris wallace will talk with senators mark werner, mark udall, rob portman, and wisconsin republicna ron johnson. the chair of the republican national committee, obama senior campaign adviser david axelrod,
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ted mcdonnell, and strickland. at 4:00, "face the nation" will be speaking with john mccain and rahm emanuel. brought to you as a public service by the networks and c- span. you can listen to them all starting at noon eastern. you can listen to apps on your blackberry, android, or iphone or go to >> you are watching live one of 10,000 homes that they are trying to get done in the next four years. these are houses that are never coming back.
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>> one-family every 20 minutes is moving out. >> moving out of detroit. these houses are this a pouring from the landscape. >> 90,000 right now ready to go. >> 164 firefighters were laid off as part of the downsizing, as part of the effort for the mayor to get the finances under control. firefighters, which detroit needs because i think it must have the highest case of arson in the country, these guys are laid off. it bought two weeks later, 100 guys are rehired. you look to find out where the money came from, it is actually the department of homeland's security that has a fund for things like that. i do not want to overstate, but that is something you want to think about. the department of common security needed to step in the
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to keep detroit as safe as it can be for the moment. it could be a lot safer. i wonder making this film, we have seen the auto industry bailout. we have seen the bank bailouts. are we heading into an era of bailouts for cities? is there such thing as a failed city? >> more with heidi ewing on q7a. host: we want to welcome michael mcdonald. early voting under way in half of the country. rekeyed st. 12 days to election day or one week ago in the campaign, -- we keep saying 12 days to election day or one week ago in the campaign. guest: over 12 million people
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have already cast their ballot. it will really ramp up this week. we will see probably somewhere between 20 and 30 million people cast their ballots. we really are getting very close to election day. a large number of people will be voting over the next week. host: we remember the hanging chad's and making sure the ballots were counted. ohio could be the florida of 2012, potentially. why? guest: if it is very close in ohio, which could be do not just a recount, ohio has a large number of provisional ballots. they use provisional ballots to deal with address transfers. the election officials want to make sure people are not voting twice. they have the individuals cast a provisional ballot. we will see over 100,000 of
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those types of ballots. in addition, we have a large number of people that have requested mail ballots in ohio. if a person does not return the ballot but show up to the polling place and they want to vote, they will also have to cast a provisional ballot because election officials are making sure people do not vote twice. do not try to do that. you will be caught if you try to do that. they manage this with provisional balance. it's it is a very narrow margin in ohio, it will take the election officials a while to count the ballots. we could be in the situation where literally we have the lawyers and officials looking at the ballots and making sure the names matched. we could be in and overtime situation in ohio. florida will be using
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provisional ballots for address transfers. we will see a lot of provisionals in florida. on top of everything else going on, they have to plan to implement something new. host: led me share with you a couple of bullet points posted on reuters. wanting to know if there will be chaos ahead or lessons from 2000? guest: once we get the provisionals counted, we will have to see. it is the career that we do not have a close election. it was a finality. they won the election over. we have to be prepared just in case there is a narrow margin. the recount does vary across the state. we will have to look to see how close the election is and if the candidate's plan to contest
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the election. we will proceed forward if that happens. host: what are the lessons from 2000? guest: it will be lawyers and every state where it recounts are going on. we will have election officials there scrutinizing every ballot in the recount. other than the fact we made some mistakes in 2000 in the way we counted the ballots, we would not see that again. we would see a statewide recount. host: let me share with you some of the coverage. this is cbs news. calling the election and retracting to remind you what happened 12 years ago. [video clip]
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theet's point out television and radio networks using a pool of data accessible affirmation have made some mistakes over the night. it the big one being in florida, first calling it for al gore and then calling in for bush and then calling it back. the television and radio networks are not the only ones who had to take some calls back. >> i have won the newspaper, this is "the new york post." they called it for george bush. just like the networks, they came out with a new addition, they called it "a nail biter." when it happened to us, it was based on technology. this is kind of scary what we are basing it all on tonight. >> they may yet be right. in the case of the chicago
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newspaper, there were wrong. it still could be right, but they pulled back. >> in fairness to al gore making his concession phone call, he was probably listening to us. >> no doubt about it. it is to 60 al gore, with 270 needed to win. florida oppose the electoral votes. the reason florida is a in white is because if this state remains undecided as of this hour, a recount has been ordered. you will not know who carries the state of florida. could go longer than that. host: that news clip points out a couple of things. first, the exit polling. all of the networks using and sharing the same information. we seem to get caught up in
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believing the exit polls, and they are not always accurate. guest: the exit polls were not being used to call the election in florida. the election was so close that the poles themselves could not be used because they had statistical errors in them. instead, the networks and the organization that actually executes the exit poll was using actual election results. they were basing their forecast models out of how much was left to be counted in florida. but we have seen in past patterns of of voting. one county miss reported. suddenly, all of these a very narrow models were saying, we are in recount, we will not be able to call the election. it all shifted dramatically over to george bush romney had the
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error. the corrected it quickly, but the information got into the system. all of the models pointed to a george bush to victory. people started making calls. they had to be pulled back. the lesson that was learned by the media is that you need to really be careful in calling the election. you have to look closely at the data. if an unusual pattern starts the merging, you have to look it that and understand what is going on. i have been embroiled with exit polls and i have been the in the room and we have seen audit numbers coming with the election results that we do not expect. we sit there and try to understand what is going on so we did not make the wrong call. host:
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host: in order to make this a legitimate call, what needs to be done? in terms of transparency and making sure this is done in a way that people say the vote was counted properly. guest: there are so many little things that can go wrong in an election. we have a margin of error in elections. and in close election, there will be little things that go wrong. unfortunately, political parties have an incentive to de legitimatize the losing side. they want to rally their base around that issue. what ever things go wrong in that recount and any flaws that are exposed in the system like a butterfly ballot in florida is a good example, these become part of the folklore of what happened
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in the election and people will say that that person really did not win. that is a rallying point for the other side. if we look at this in a sane way, we have to realize that the -- that if the election is close, there will be errors and we have to accept that whatever the process tells us is the eventual outcome. back in 2000, despite having bush lose the popular vote and win by the narrow margin in florida with all sorts of other allegations that were swirling around, by and large, we did not have a revolution in the country. we moved on. that is what we will do as a country if we have that situation again. it will be fringe elements that complain about the election
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outcome but most people in the middle are rational and will trust the outcome. they may not like about that will accept it as part of the democratic process host: our guest is michael mcdonnell. you can join the conversation on facebook or twister. you can also give us a phone call at any of the numbers on the bottom of the screen. this is from "the l.a. times."
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this is one of a number of scenarios that would happen if there is an electoral tie. mathematically it is possible especially if you look at the battleground states. guest: fortunately, that scenario is a low probability but it is always possible it will happen in any election. right now, if you look at some of the forecast models out there from " the new york times "and the other places, we're looking at a probability of less than 1%. -- ittake a deep breath is and on likely scenario but it is possible. of all the things that could go on on election night, an electoral college taught is probably one of the least possible. host: shelley is joining us from memphis, tenn., democrats won,
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good morning. caller: i have a question about the early voting. with the early voting, i am a new voter this year and i just turned 18 and i finally get to vote. understand -- last night, they were saying taht -- that it was a debate between the democrats and republicans but what they are saying is that met romney would be a good president or whatever. how do we know if he gets elected that it was not counted wrong? guest: election officials count all the absentee ballots. any vote that has been cast
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early is counted on election day with all the other boats. your vote will be counted. as far as the accuracy of the account, this is very important. if you are going to vote early especially by mail, it is in port and for everyone to follow precisely the procedure is listed by your state that came with your ballot. in 2008, election officials reported to the federal government that over 400,000 ballots were discarded by election officials because voters did not follow proper procedures. sometimes people think they are doing a favor to election officials to put two ballots on one envelope. that invalid's both those ballots. election officials need to track each individual ballot in an individual envelope. you look at our rules and procedures veteran place, they are it there for a good reason.
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don't second-guess them. follow them precisely and make sure all the signatures required are on the outside of the envelope. make sure you probably fill out the ballot itself. you were working with a paper ballot. some states can be difficult to decipher. be very sure to follow all those procedures. we don't want you to inadvertently disenfranchise yourself by doing something wrong with your ballot. that is the greatest way by which people disenfranchise themselves in this election is by having some sort of error related to the mail ballot. host: the president is traveling to his hometown city of chicago to cast his ballot early. ohio and has -- has had early voting. guest: we have had different laws in different states.
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is important for people to understand that no one size fits all in which we run our elections and the country. host: why is that? guest: goes back to our founding fathers who were debating in the constitution whether there was going to be a national eligibility requirement for voting. because of the time each state was doing things differently, they could not come to an agreement. the founding fathers decided that they would have the states be responsible for election administration. the congress can enact below and .e have had bathat there are ways in which the federal government imposes how we manage voting in the country. the states really still are preeminent what comes to the way
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in which elections are run, the method in which the states are going to run the elections and that makes sense. it would look at early voting, we see states like oregon and washington in the west, they have all mail-ballot elections. it makes sense for them to do that. the long-distance is and it is a large rural area. having an all mail-ballot election in the west makes sense. if you look it in person early voting, that is sometimes we see in southern and eastern states. it makes sense there because it -- because you have people who are more concentrated in urban areas and cities. it is possible to run elections in person in early voting in those states. we don't want to have a one size fits all the election in this country. state is different and as a different population. and each state knows best was good for their voters.
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host: riverside, conn., from our republican line. caller: good morning, thank you for taking my call. i have a question about the early voting situation. let's all hope it is not close. let's hope it is closed in many states, not just one. i have seen a lot in the media about how difficult it is in many of these voting precincts all over the country to actually get, on election day, republican and democrat volunteers to show up to make the voting process legitimate and fair. with the early voting, how can they possibly in sure that they always have equal numbers of republicans and democrats in these voting precincts where people go to vote which stretches for such a long period of time? how can it possibly be fair?
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guest: we actually do early voting not in every school and small polling place in the country. these are in satellite early voting locations. there are much fewer of those than the numbers number of polling places we see on election day. you can be assured that in the battleground states, both political parties will make sure that those early voting locations are covered. we see literally hundreds of thousands of people voting each day now within those states that have in person early voting. the parties will make sure that things are on the up and up. they have the resources to look at these much narrower numbers when we open it up on election day. host:
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guest: another great question -- this is another relic of our past from our founding fathers when they were trying to decide how they would elect the president. they decided that there would be this group of what is it like doris that would be appointed -- electors that would be appointed by each state. some states did not even hold elections in the past. the state legislature drew up be appointed the electors to the electoral college. it is in the federal law. if, god forbid, we had a real problem with hurricane sandy hitting the northeast, the emergency procedures in our
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constitution said the state legislature then would elect or nominate the electors to the electoral college. if we cannot run an election for some reason, we still have a backup plan in place in that eventuality. each state has a slate and when you vote for president, you're not voting for president, you are voting for the slate of electors. these people are going to vote for who they think is best to be president. each state gets a number of electors equal to the number of representatives plus the number of senators which is true for each state. those people are elected on election day. they don't actually come together. they mail it in. it is early voting with them as well.
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they select the winner. in the event of a tie, in the electoral college, we go to the congress and the procedures there where each state votes as a unit as to who they think is going to -- who they would want to be president. you have a majority of each state's delegation in congress and they both as a unit and they select their one-vote as to who will be president and we have another vote. that is the way it works. back in the day, when our founding fathers were thinking about the constitution, they expected it to go to congress more often than not. they thought we would have a diverse electorate and it would be difficult for the electoral college to come to an agreement. they designed a system where they thought congress would be the ones selecting the president more often than not.
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as it turned out over time, they did not anticipate the rise of two major political parties in the country when they were forming our constitution. when we have two major parties that are battling things out, you tend to get into that situation where one party has a majority. as time has gone on, there is the notion that congress would be the one that is responsible for selecting the president. it is not part of our culture anymore. host: here is a comment -- let's go to william joining us from pittsburgh, on the independent line. caller: good morning, gentlemen the thing i have with the early
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voting in new york where the mayor and all the councilmen were busted for doing absentee ballots and got their dna and they are convicting them as we speak. in addition to that, we have all these people that have been sent by -- said by a judge to be incompetent. they cannot write a check and they have alzheimer's and all this. yet they are allowed to vote. who is actually voting for them? do they have supervisors or management at the care facilities they are indexed in?t guest: if we look at where the vote fraud occurs in the system, it is rare and when we do observe it, it tends to happen
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with mail in ballots. we don't know exactly if someone has requested a ballot. there are signature verification is that officials do. signatures don't match, they know. they compare signatures verses the voter registration cards. that is the check in the system. there is some suspicion that election officials have. that someone has requested a ballot for another individual, that will follow that up in individual and investigations and occasionally they find people who do this sort of thing you are saying. they requested ballot in the name of another person but there could be situations where people forged signature and it looks close enough and maybe some one does request ace -- a ballot and then someone cast a ballot for those individuals and they manage to put pressure upon
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them to vote a particular way. if we look at the biggest vulnerability in terms of vote fraud in the system, it does occur with mail in ballots. this is tongue in cheek -- we know it does not happen with impersonation fraud, it happens with the mail in ballot. impersonation fraud or someone tries to vote under someone else's name is extremely rare. the rubble and the been seven prosecutions over decades -- there have been only seven prosecutions over the last decades. if you are republican and you want to force people into a system where we know where the fraud occurs, you would adopt a photo identification law. the photo identification law does not apply to the mail in ballots. that is where the problems
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ocher and we can see an early voting this time around, for whatever reason, more people are voting million ballots -- our voting mail in the ballot. -- mail in ballots. we are shoving more people into a system that is greater bomb -- greater vulnerability. we can look at procedures to deal with them a bad situation we have now if there is vote fraud and the system, it is occurring with the mail in ballots. host: here is an observation from one of our viewers -- guest: absolutely, when a state adopts an early voting law, over time, we see more people deciding to vote early. that has been the experience.
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the state of washington is probably the best example where the state had a system of mail and balloting called no excuse mail in balloting where you can request a male in ballot for whatever reason. that had a procedure that allowed people to permanently receive that absentee ballot and overtime, so many people within the state of washington were signing up to permanently receive their absentee ballot that election officials said we will just run an election by mail. so few people are showing up on election day at polling places. that is essentially washington state does now. as time goes on, you see more people finding early voting convenient. the other point is that if there is a problem and you show up as a first-time voter, it is important for people to understand to register for the
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first time. there are several laws regarding identification that you have to show at least a utility statement with your name and address on it is not an id. you could show up to your polling place, and this happens every election, people show up and they don't realize they are a first-time voter and they show up with no identification in every state. it is not just the ones who have doppler -- adopted these identification loss and then they have to cast provisional balata may not follow up and the vote is lost. if you used early voting, you are alerted to this problem and you have the opportunity to go again with that idea that might be required in your state. host: let me state that security issues aside, if you are able to work through that and you envision a time where people can just use their smart phone or
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laptop or tablet -- guest: we have online voting going on right now in this election. there have been states who have adopted electronic transmission of ballots, sending them to voters and receiving them for our military and overseas civilians. the state of north carolina's one of the states where we are getting those statistics and we can see that thousands of people have cast ballots by e- mail. the individual printed out and signs it and they scan it and they send it back to the election officials. the election officials entered into the system. there is vulnerability there. if someone could intercept the ballot and vote on behalf of that person, or change their ballot, that is possible.
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it is probably very rare and unlikely that would occur. you would have to take the signature. these election officials are doing signature verification. if that did not match and if you took a signature and moved to another document, these and not think you can easily automate as part of a scam or virus that will steal an election that way. it is possible that some votes could be intercepted that way but is unlikely. male and ballots were first used during the civil war. abraham lincoln encouraged soldiers to vote by mail. when we look at innovations in elections in the u.s., typically happens with the military.
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with the transmission of electronic ballasts, there's and opportunities for people to look of this and see what the better mousetrap would be. i would not be surprised downed road now that we have offer this to oversee civilians that we might see a greater incidence of this in the future. host: we're talking about voting. birmingham, alabama, democrat line. caller: good morning, gentlemen. i wanted to ax michael mcdonald a question. i am a proud democrats so i am pro-barack obama. and a lot of his early voting on the democrat side, there are a lot of voters that normally
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would not vote on election day. is that why he is getting a big push in ohio and other states? they might have made an effort to locate first-time voters and voters that normally would not vote on election day. is this not true? i want to make a comment after you are done. guest: so far, where we have party registration, there are a good number of democrats who have voted already. the polls are showing that obama is leading the early boat much like he did in 2008. that is an aberration from our part -- previous count. from previous elections before the 2008, typically, republicans won the early voting. we have had such a high volume now and the obama campaign is encouraging their supporters to vote early. we have seen a change in behavior when campaigns can take advantage of early voting to
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encourage their supporters and mobilize them over a longer period of time. that is was going on on the democrat side. if you look at the numbers, there are more republicans voting early ban in 2008. the romney campaign is not conceding the early vote as the mccain campaign did in 2008. we are seeing greater interest among republicans and we see level increases of democrats and republicans compared to 2008 in early voting. up to this point, when we look at the statistics, most of the people who have voted early so far were people who are very strong partisans and have registered with their local party. in ohio, we have data where we know that people have voted in a primary or not. by and large, people who were voting in ohio were people who
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have voted in primaries. these are people who are high propensity voters. they want to be assured of good they are voting for and have made up their minds and a vote in every election and a cast their ballots. that is true on both sides. as we get into this next week, we are already starting to see the numbers of people who are not registered with political parties, who don't vote in every election, and we see those people rise in numbers as we get closer to election day. we have seen a pattern in every election. this is not really crunch time. these are people who are low propensity voters and more persuade a bowl. --persuadable. obama has a greater amount of people to go after but mitt romney cannot ignore these people either. these are lower information
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voters and not people following the elections as closely. as many of the cspan voters are. these people can be persuaded to vote for mr. runyan. both campaigns will be out there working very hard to get the vote on election day. host: quick comment? caller: i wish the gentleman would look at the desk moines, iowa race. that was a very fevered endorsement that he gave. the economy is linked to what is going on in other countries. that is an endorsement that was given. thank you all. host: one final call and one
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tweet - this is in " the new york times" this morning -- guest: ironically, if al gore had asked for a statewide recounts in florida, he would have won. the supreme court would not have shut it down. the media came in afterwards and requested those ballots. he would have lost under the recounted s four which was to do only the high democratic counties. there were a lot of democratic votes for gore in those counties that were not the deep blue counties where he thought he would get the votes.
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the lesson i think the party is learned is that when you do a statewide recounts, do that and do not to aid local recounts. host: our last call is from missouri, go ahead. caller: i want to say that i have less faith in our system that i have ever had after listening to the professor. i believe he stated that mail in ballots or electronic, there is more propensity for fraud. that really worries me. if it can be done, it will be done. guest: to pull this off and a massive sort of way, you have to
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have elections officials complicity. they are doing verification. if one person requested ballots for a large number of people at a particular address, that would send off warning flags for election officials. that is not to say that every now and then, you find election officials are corrupt. it is a large country and it is possible and it happens. there are big prosecutions and investigations and people are serving time in jail for trying to subvert democracy. is important to understand that these are rare events. there are people out there really scrutinizing it. if that happens in a key battleground state, if we go down to a recount in one of these states, these things are likely going to be scrutinized. people will observe what is
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happening and they will be able to identify these things. if you think the election will be stolen in ohio or florida, someone can try and do that anyone who thinks they're going to try to do that. do not do it. it's not worth it the cost. you're doing a disservice to all of your other citizens out there. host:, donald, associate professor at george mason -- michael mcdonald. where can they go for more information? guest: and tracking the early voting and keeping a lot of the information's to post online. also on twitter @electproject.
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host: think you for being with us. it sunday morning, october 28th. we continue our focus on battleground states. up next, pennsylvania. terry madonna bill be joining us and then not a roundtable with robert gleason, the chair of the pennsylvania republican party and josh shapiro with the montgomery county board of commissioners and a democrat. we will get their input on this critical swing state. up next, an update from bobby jackson from c-span radio. fo
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>> would you support an increase in the presence of national guard and the mexico border in light of the drug violence? >> as i'm sure you know, there was an agreement back in 2008 between the united states and mexico where we helped with technical support and aircraft to help with the war on drugs and the drug cartels in mexico. i want to say this. we are stuck in these stereotypes in the states. el paso is the safest city in america or a city of its size. we have safe communities all along the border. it is a great economic engine for our state and these are great communities. >> we should triple the u.s.
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border control because we have to get serious insult the problem in securing the border. mexico is a great and mighty nation. it's tragic what is happening in mexico. the violence is tragic. but i was visiting with a mexican businessman and he talked about how he received a letter that deal tailed where his grandkids had been for the last week minute by minute. it's tragic. the u.s. should work cooperatively to help the mexican government solve this problem, stop the violence and stop the drug wars terrorizing so many innocent citizens. >> the texas senate seat is one of the key races you can follow on c-span, c-span radio, and that >> washington journal continues.
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host: for the next several days, we're focusing on key battleground states. today, the spotlight is the keystone state, pennsylvania. terry madonna is with the franklin & marshall college center for politics & public affairs and is there director. thank you for being with us. that me begin with a broad overview of the political geography of pennsylvania and the comparison between east and west in your state. guest: first of all, like any battleground state, pennsylvania as large parts that are read, large parts that are blue. if we just take a look at the western part of the state, the southwest in particular, if you go out into the pittsburgh area and the counties surrounding it, they are a democratic in voter registration, but once you leave the pittsburgh metropolitan area, which is
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democratic, you run into the old mining towns where coal, steel, lead, paint, glass, all of those industries that made the pennsylvania economy dominates, particularly steel and coal, over the course of about 40 years after world war ii, those industries went away and the economy suffered severely. those voters out there were typically democratic, both -- blue-collar, working class men and women. and they were pro-union. these were the quintessential reagan democrats. they would be in counties adjacent to pittsburgh like a beaver, westmoreland, further to the east. as of late, they have had a
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propensity to vote republican, particularly in big elections. pro gun,onservative, pro life, not fond of gay rights. if you draw a big "t" in the center of the state and fan out towards the new york border, not quite to hear your the northeastern part of the state -- not quite to erie, it's white, protestant, no definable ethnic group. once you go east of the susquehanna river, with the exception of a few counties, the demography changed sharply. let's go down to the southeast. philadelphia, heavily democratic. the four suburban counties are the swing counties. two of those counties now have a
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democratic registration and two of them are republican-ended. we have to do very well in those swing counties to carry pennsylvania then move up to the north, a lehigh valley, allentown, bethlehem. if you take the four suburban counties and the two lehigh valley counties, swing counties the whole way. if you win them in aggregate, you win the total vote and you will probably win the state of pennsylvania. in lackawanna and lucerne's, heavily democratic. the scranton may be best known. joe biden is from there. hillary clinton's father was born there. everyone starts to campaign in scranton in one way or another.
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in sitcoms, scranton is a town. they have an extra gene for politics. host: we have a phone line set aside for those of you who live in pennsylvania. we want to hear from you as we focus our series here on the key battleground states. terry madonna, since 1988, pennsylvania has gone democratic. last time they vote republican was for george herbert walker bush. why? guest: 2 when the suburban voters, as i pointed out a moment ago, they come out of philadelphia with a huge edge and that is the largest municipality in the state with a heavy concentration of democrats. if you win philadelphia in the out of thet's say southeast by 650,000 votes, it's pretty difficult to overcome
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that edge in other parts of the stage even if republicans win the infamous "t" we referred to. the other thing to remember about pennsylvania is that it is dominated by one television market. there are six tv markets in the state, but philadelphia covers 40% of the voters in the state. all of delaware and the southern half of new jersey. in order to be effective in the television advertising business, you have to really advertise in the philadelphia television market which goes all the way up to lehigh valley, way out into the western area moving closer to the susquehanna river. where i live just east of susquehanna, you can get philadelphia television, but it
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is other counties that go right up to lehigh valley. very important television market. this is what the democrats were able to do. they do very well in the suburbs. hold on to pittsburgh get hold their own in those counties out in the southwestern part of the state that increasingly have voted republican in the elections. host:. . is 20 electoral votes. obama won by 10 percentage points. unemployment is mirroring what we have nationwide, 8.2%. neighboring ohio is getting an awful lot of attention with their 18 electoral votes. what is so different between ohio and pennsylvania that makes ohio more of a battleground than pennsylvania at the moment? guest: the essential differences ohio has a good many more moderate independent voters at
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this point which are likely to either vote republican or democrat. as i pointed out a moment ago, the recent democrats have done well is because they have captured the suburbs in our state in the recent presidential elections which has been the defining difference. in the middle of ohio and columbus, that is a battleground. there, obviously with cleveland, but in the northeastern part of the state being democratic and cincinnati and out west be more republican. ohio just has a larger pool of these swing voters, if you will, and are more evenly balanced between the democratic and republican regions of the state. pennsylvania has a huge portion of moderate independent-minded voters and they can swing the state either way, depending if
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they bounce back one way or another. it the current governor of our state, two years ago when republicans swept pennsylvania, as they did in many other parts of the state, for example, every one of those swing counties have been talking about, with the exception of two he won chester county, a lehigh county, northampton county, and he got a few on the fringes as well. i like to put it this way. we are not quite new jersey and we are not quite purple as ohio is. we are light blue. under the right circumstances, republicans can win our state. right now, the race has been pretty stable for the last two or three weeks. host: but me ask you about election night when returns are
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coming in the early morning hours. when you look at pennsylvania, what will you be looking for? guest: turnout in philadelphia, vote totals in montgomery and delaware counties. the vote totals in lehigh and northampton. if they are not big counties, but they are the ones that we look to to give us some sense about how the state might go. obviously, you want to know turnout differentials by county to see if there is something markedly different. pennsylvania's turnouts for a much mirrors the turnout nationally. i would not expect the turn out to be more than two percentage points off of what the national turnout was, slightly above 60% of eligible voters nationwide. i think about 62% four years ago. pennsylvania will be in that same range. in a close race, then you have
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to go out into the southwestern part of the state into those counties, the blue-collar working class counties. typically, reporting in pennsylvania comes early as in the urban areas and at times, when elections are clutch, they will be waiting for the boats out west to come in that can often make a difference as to which candidate will win or lose. host: our guest is terry madonna. he has written plenty of books about pennsylvania politics. he is the director at the center for politics and public affairs and is a professor of franklin and marshall college. he works with wtae and "the pittsburgh tribune review." the morning. thank you for waiting. >> good morning. thank you for taking my call. -- caller: good morning.
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i wanted your guest to address the redistricting efforts. i live in lehigh valley and the are trying to redraw the district lines. even as pennsylvania goes democratic this election and, they are doing everything they can to make sure that changes in the future. i think it was overshadowed by the voter i.d. issue going on in pennsylvania this year, but i was hoping you could maybe explain that to us and what it means. host: thank you. guest: karen may be talking about the congressional redistricting which took place last year. basically, pennsylvania has 1 million more registered democrats and republicans and they have 12 republicans in the congressional delegation and six democrats. pennsylvania lost a seat for the reapportionment process.
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the republican controlled legislature essentially redrew the congressional boundary lines moving some seeds that were vulnerable in the eastern portion of the state, three of them in the philadelphia suburbs, for example, and one of them in the lehigh valley and one of them up in scranton. basically, running them west and south to pick up more republicans without getting into the details of it. she lives in one of those areas where the boundary lines were redrawn. i do not know which congressman she would have. it might be in the 15th with congressman dent. now comes into south central pennsylvania. she could be in a seat held by a republican, and that would be the 11th congressional district. that district was redrawn so that it now comes literally the whole way down to the state capital.
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more republicans, but one way to think about that in the moment in competitive terms, no independent analyst believes of the etf's congressional seats that more than two of them are in play. the one that is in play in the west is 12. it's currently held by democrats. maybe we can argue there is a seat in the southeastern part of the state, the eighth congressional district held by congressman fitzpatrick that is in play, but at the end of the day on november 6th, what we will see basically is republicans still easily in control of the congressional delegation in the state. host: bloomberg news has five pennsylvania counties to watch on election night including chester, a lehigh, one row in comparison to what happened in
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2004-2008. all in the eastern and southeastern parts of pennsylvania. on the fallout from jim thorpe pennsylvania. caller: good morning. how are you doing yo? i have more of a comment. the lady was talking about redistricting and also the voter ideologue. with the republican party, what they did it to the libertarian and the constitution party, the republican party is not a choice on the ballot. with the voter i.d. law, all they want to do is disenfranchise the voter. okay? the republican party but the libertarian party through hell, to be honest with you.
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just to get 1% of the boat off the ballot. -- of the vote off. the libertarian party never got more than 1% of the votes nationally and i think it's ridiculous. i have volunteered for the libertarian party. they were arguing over signatures. what a waste of time and taxpayers' money because that had to all go in to the courts. host: terry madonna, third parties and the pennsylvania ballot. guest: gary johnson will be on the ballot house will -- as will jill stein of the green party. pennsylvania can write someone in. we will essentially have four two choices. host: the headline this morning from "the philadelphia inquirer
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." joining us is the politics writer from "the enquirer." thank you for being with us. share with us these polling numbers. how many did you survey and what are the results? caller: it was a survey of 600 likely voters all last week, tuesday through thursday. the margin of error is four percentage points. basically, it has narrowed a little bit. there was a swing towards romney about net two percentage points. the last poll, just after the first debate, this is sort of edging up with obama having a steady lead. it is a democratic leaning state these days. there has not been an awful lot of campaign activity in terms of visits by the candidates or
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advertising. they have now really targeted the state this year on like 2008 in the last previous four cycles. host: there has been an awful lot of advertising in the senate races. your polls are showing that the senate race has been considerably closer. he is still holding onto a slight lead, seven points over republican tom smith. what has been happening in that race? caller: is a simple matter if you spend $17 million of your own money, you can get hearing from people. the senator is a member of an institution that is not really very popular these days, the congress. smith is gaining traction just on the strength of his message. and introducing himself to
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voters. that could be one of the surprises on election night. host: what can republicans read in these polling numbers? caller: on the presidential race? president obama is up 49%, still below 50%. it seems pennsylvania could be a little bit more competitive if they made a last-minute push. in fact, there is one of the for jobc's, americans security, they have bought a lot of time in the philadelphia market, and maybe more by now. it's quite possible because they will be making at least a tentative plan for the state. it could be within reach.
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this is just based on the national trend. based on news coverage of what's going on in the race generally. they have voter contact on the ground, but no real number moving adds. this could have some potential. caller: -- host: what can democrats read into the polling numbers? caller: if you go further down into the poll, there are some unusually high percentages of pennsylvania voters approving of obama's job performance, which is unusual. democrats could feel probably a little reassurance. it's kind of difficult to imagine a president with with that high of approval in this kind of environment the getting thrown out, getting rejected.
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host: thomas fitzgerald, who covers politics for "the philadelphia inquirer." thank you for being with us. but it back to your phone calls. mike from pennsylvania, democratic line. good morning. caller: the morning, steve and terry. with controversy about the voter id lot to suppress turnout, do you think that this will in any way suppress turnout? if so, will it be enough to affect the margins in any way? thanks. guest: last march, the legislature passed a law that required pennsylvania voters to show up with one of six approved photo id's. if you did not have one, they would provide you with one but you have to go through certain
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procedures to get one. more recently, in the last three weeks, a judge in our states simply set aside that particular provision of law so that when pennsylvanian is go to vote on november 6th, you will be asked to show one of those six forms of identification. if you do not have one, you will still be permitted to vote. your vote will count. for all practical purposes, pennsylvania will be asked to do what they were asked to do in april during the spring primary. show an identification. if you do not have one, that's fine. there are about 175 organizations in this state that have been working to be sure that pennsylvania understands
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the procedures that will be followed. i do not think it's going to have a huge impact, as it might have had if you were required to provide a form of identification and then be allowed to vote provisionally. without getting too technical, it meant within six days, you had to provide one of those six forms in order for your vote to count. in the and, i do not think it will make a huge difference. even though there is some confusion about where it stands now, there has been a lot going on to try to explain that to people. i think voters will show up and it will not be a huge controversy. the law remains in effect. the forms of identification, the constitutionality of that, which has been challenged and it has not yet been finalized by the highest court, the state supreme court. some think that will likely occur next year.
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host: early voting under way in half of the country. colorado, nevada, florida, ohio, virginia, and new hampshire are swing states that already have early voting period is not in pennsylvania. why not? guest: talks you can vote by absentee but it has to be a particular reason. we do not have early voting. you just cannot get a ballot and use it too early voting. you have to be ill, out of the state. essentially, for all practical purposes, voting will be on november 6th in pennsylvania. one argument that has been used about why there are no television commercials is we may see some in philadelphia or pittsburgh by the romney campaign.
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some say it is just to reach the eastern parts of ohio. this is largely because there's no reason to communicate with voters simply because there's no early voting. there is no air time. you cannot buy any more. there is plenty in pennsylvania though. we were the second bust advertised state from about the third week in september to labor day four years ago. something like $29 million. up until this point, what, that gerald was talking about, the ad by -- what tom fitzgerald was talking about, there has been no ad buy. we have had only two since the convention. romney in the philadelphia area
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and paul ryan to pittsburgh. for 40 visits between labor day and election day in 2008. now we are just the surrogate capital. josh romney, and romney, debbie wasserman shultz. we're not getting the main . getting the main lineres. host: will that change in the next nine days? guest: i'm sure you'll hear more about that from robert gleason and the argument that pennsylvania could still be in play. the race has gotten very stable. as the context has changed nationally, it cold present on obama from a 7, 8, 9 point lead. the range was then 7-10.
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now the range is 5-7. as it narrowed nationally, pennsylvania remains on the cusp of whether or not it will be competitive. host: here is the map in the last two elections. pennsylvania is referred to as pennsylvania and pittsburgh with a "t" in the middle. erie, the greater pittsburgh area and the eastern part of the state most notably around philadelphia. loretta from pennsylvania,
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republican line with terry madonna. caller: hello? host: you're on the air. caller:ok. my comment is i think obama should be impeached for allowing the ambassador, after requesting help three times and being denied. they were told to stand down. you cannot say the president did not know about it. they are dancing around this issue. i think this should be made in national issue. i'm very disappointed in him and hillary clinton, her being a mother and a woman. i think it's just disgusting. host: you had a chance to rest the president the question on this issue, what would you ask? what is your question? caller: why did you have those guys murder? that would be my question. why? i want to know why he did not
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send help in when he could. he cannot tell me he could not. host: terry madonna, on this issue generally in foreign policy, how is that playing out in pennsylvania? guest: there is no doubt that the president had a pretty substantial lead on foreign policy in the polls that have been done. that lead has certainly narrowed to four, five, six points in the polls i looked at just last week. the been gauzy issue has certainly played a pretty significant role in that decline. on been gauzy, it's hard to say exactly how that would play a politically. i do think the administration has a lot to answer for objectively for how they handled it and what the president and vice-president new or did not know when any time and how they responded to the request for
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security. we do not have time to get in the details of that. typically that would not be decisive. we will not go to the moral question that the caller raised, but in political terms, it's not likely to be decisive, but it's certainly not helpful to the president. it is still in the polls that i have done and others have done largely about the economy. host: this was just a few days ago from politicio. republicans are intrigued and they may strike with advertising. been: that's what we have talking about. let's put it this way. if romney gets virginia and florida of, that's not out of
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the question. he has 248 then. the magic number is 270. ohio has a team. -- ohio has 18. that gets into 266, four short. then he only has to win one of the other four battleground states that you have been covering from new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, colorado. if he loses ohio, then he needs a combination of three of the four, a much bigger hurdle. if he could win pennsylvania, that's 20 electoral votes. the thinking is he has to win one or the other. if he wins pennsylvania and the president were to lose my state, he loses the presidential election, i think. pennsylvania in a sense becomes
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the firewall for president obama. it becomes the ultimate fire wall. the real question is if what happens in virginia, which is very close, florida looks like it is tilting a little bit more toward romney, so it is like a checkerboard. what republicans have to think about is this -- they have tens of millions of dollars that they're probably cannot use in other states which they could put in pennsylvania. if they could miraculously win come about which change the dynamic of the election and probably lead to a romney victory. host: from redding, pennsylvania, good morning. caller: i wanted to remind my fellow people in pennsylvania that to vote is your duty. you need to come out and vote. host: what traditionally has
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been voter turnout in pennsylvania? guest: usually mirrors the national average in turnout. we are all looking at that. some of us do not think the turnout will quite reach what it was in 2008. the standard better used is eligible voters, not registered voters. i doubt if we will reach 60%. who knows? as you were talking about earlier with professor mac donald, we have a huge turnout operations going on. the republicans have certainly learned from the democrats in 2008. arguably, they got an extra point or two, some say more, by virtue of their turnout efforts. whether we can get above that 60% of the eligible voters threshold remains to be seen. it's likely to be a little lower given what we are seeing in
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voter motivation, but the grand game will be key and it may well determine to take a state like ohio, which in this morning's newspaper polls, they are dead even, 49-49. turnout could be key. our turnout will mirror the national turnout. raw host: obama losing the pennsylvania primary to hillary clinton in 2008. here is this point. will that resonate in 2012? guest: that is a comment that has stuck in the south and in more conservative democratic areas. the president made that statement at a san francisco fund-raiser in the midst of the democratic primary in
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pennsylvania in march and april, that big primary in 2008. there were six weeks where there was literally nothing else going on in the campaign except the upcoming pennsylvania primary. that became a huge issue. what it does remind voters, particularly in the southwest, of the president's position on guns. pennsylvania is a strong nra pro gun state. it has been difficult for gun control advocates to get legislation through pennsylvania sort of changing the gun was here. i do not see any opportunity will likelihood that it will change in the foreseeable future. i do not know if that is a decisive comment, but it lingers on as a problem with the
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president in parts of the state. host: republican line, pennsylvania, good morning. caller: i am on the county line between what the wants and -- lackawanna and scranton. many voters say they vote the person and not a party. the democratic party here has been run by two long-term senators that are currently either indicted or are being convicted. and then we have the democratic judges. having most voters said they but the person not a party, do you think the level of disgust with the corruption of these convictions, do you think they will finally give both candidates and honest shake down and listen to what they have to say? from the indication of yard signs, i feel it romney win in
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my bones in pennsylvania. what say you? guest: the gentleman refers to an exceptionally difficult time, to put it mildly, four pennsylvania lawmakers where we have a large number being prosecuted by both the federal government and the attorney general of the state. the governor, when he was attorney general. this state has historically had problems among its public officials. having said that, i think the presidential election is viewed differently by the voters. they are not going to go back, for the most part, and say my state senator was indicted for public corruption charges, therefore i will not vote for president obama. i do not think that calculus those in to the presidential elections, at least when we talk to voters.
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they're quite capable of separating the two. in pennsylvania, we also have higher levels of partisanship than we do in many other states. it is still a state rooted in heavy partisanship. the big exception to that is the philadelphia suburbs, a lehigh valley, and there are areas of the state where you do not have partisanship strong voter identification. i cannot think these incidents are likely to change the outcome of the election. romney, obama, in its own environment and it will be decided on issues and personalities of the candid in their quality, a quite separate. host: terry madonna, there has been eight years of a democratic administration in the state house and eight years of a republican governor and now gov. corbett. you have elected republican
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senators in the state including rick santorum and now split between pat toomey and bob casety. it has been a pretty divided state when it comes to elected officials across pennsylvania. guest: that's right. in that sense, we are a quintessential swing state. each party is capable at the state level of winning an election. in 2006, that was the iraq war election. there was hostility and a low approval rating for president bush. 2008 was the recession election. then the republicans swept back in control. both houses of the state legislature, the senate had been republican, and the state house by the biggest edge, 112 republicans, 91 democrats, the biggest edge any party has had since the 1950's. and it senator pat to me -- sen.
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pat toomey elected by nine percentage points. we have three statewide offices up for election in the state, auditor general, attorney general, and state treasurer. they are very spirited contest. we often have a split winners in those elections. the state could go for obama, as it did in 2008. but they could elect a republican attorney general. that's not uncommon. pennsylvania, despite the fact that we're seeing more straight party voting in the last three elections than we used to come unless ticket splitting, but they will still split tickets and elected democrat or republican statewide in a very competitive state despite the fact that pennsylvania has now five times gone democratic in presidential elections. host: your election forecast?
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another nail biter? guest: i think so. i do not think there will be much change in the legislature. maybe a few seats the republicans can pick up. it will stay the same. the congressional delegation will remain republican. your probably have to give pup -- president a slight edge of this becomes stable with this five-six point lead he house on average. -- he house on average. if you can push to the slightly favoring the president as we move into november 6th. host: terry madonna joining us from paris bird, pa., frank hollande and marshall college. we appreciate you joining us this sunday morning. -- franklin and marshall college. the chair of the pennsylvania republican party will be joining us from pittsburgh and the director of the montgomery county board of commissioners from the philadelphia area.
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first, a look at some of the other issues, topics, and guests shaping up this sunday morning. you can hear them all on c-span radio. bobby jackson is in d.c.'s ban radio studios. -- is in the seas p.m. radio studios. >> david gregory is the host of "meet the press," and he has john kasic, the colorado governor, and republicans got walker. at 1:00, abc's "this week," talking to former house speaker newt gingrich. at 2:00 p.m., fox news sunday. chris wallace will be talking with senator mark warner from virginia, mark udall from colorado, robert portman from
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ohio, and wisconsin republican ron johnson. at 3:00, reince preibus, senior campaign advisor david axelrod, the juror the governor association and ted strickland's. at 4:00, bob schieffer talking with arizona republican senator john mccain and a obama supporter, chicago mayor rahm emmanuel. the sunday morning shows brought to you as a public service are not c-span. at noon, 90.1 in the d.c. area, channel 119 on sirius xm, or
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our apps, or online to >> one of 10,000 homes they're trying to get done in the next four years. these are houses that are never coming back. what's not right now. one family every 20 days moving out. >> they're going back to the ferry. they are disappearing from the landscape. >> 90,000 ready to go. >> 164 firefighters were laid off as a part of this downsizing, this effort to get finances under control in the city. firefighters, which detroit needs, because it might have the highest case of arson in the
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country, these guys are getting laid off. two weeks later, 100 guys will be hired. when you look to see where the money came from, and with the department of homeland security to of the funding for things like that. i do not want to overstate, but that is something you want to think about. the department of homeland security needed to step in to keep detroit's as safe as it can be for the moment. it could be a lot safer, but we are talking about the auto industry bailout, the bank bailout. are we heading into an era of the city bailouts? is there such a thing as a failed city? >> heidi ewing tonight on "q&a ." host: we continue our focus on pennsylvania politics. joining us from pittsburgh,
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robert gleason, a teacher of the republican party. thank you for being with us. and josh shapiro, a teacher of the montgomery county board of commissioners, a democrat, joining us from philadelphia. thank you for joining us. robert gleason i want to begin with you. so far, since the convention, very little of mitt romney and paul ryan in your state. why? guest: i don't really know. have been here a few times. they are making a real effort here. we have a very expansive mail program in which millions of dollars are being spent. we have 25 victories centers. we have over 100 paid employees of the crown. they have made a commitment. the have not made an electronic media commitment. paul ryan was here in pittsburgh just one year ago -- one week ago. mrs. romney has been here. why are they not spending money here? i don't know. i'm not privy.
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host: josh shapiro, not much of the president or vice president since the convention. guest: have been preparing for victory for more than a year. 50 field offices, thousands of volunteers going around knocking on doors, making phone calls. we are a bottom-up campaign. this will be one on the field in election day. i think the president as an organization second to none that i'm proud to be associated with. i'm confident we will have a victory on november 6th. host: josh shapiro, you're from the philadelphia area. bloomberg has a number of key counties to look at, among them chester, a lehigh, and others. why are these so critical to the campaign in november? guest: chair gleason will agree that the swing areas likely in the suburbs. montgomery county, that
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represent on the board of commissioners, is the largest among them. when you look at how that area has swung in past elections, that determines the winner. if you look at the poll that came out today, president obama has a mass of 25 point lead in the five county areas and he has maintained that lead throughout in all of the various polls. i think ronny's extreme positions on, for example, a woman's right to choose really puts him at odds with moderates and suburban sensibility in pennsylvania. i'm confident that the numbers the president will show in the suburbs will propel him to victory. host: as you know, he famously referred to the state as this. "to make pennsylvania close, mitt romney must win big in alabama." what does he mean by that?
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guest: he needs to win big in the essential part of the state, what we call the "t." there is lancaster, york, and it spread across the top. he's going to do really well there. romney is doing terrific in the "t." i cannot believe our results in southwestern pennsylvania. if you remember in the primary, hillary clinton be president obama down there. some counties it was by 30-40 points. they were are very upset about the -- are very upset about teh war on coal. i do not agree with josh. we are doing well in the philadelphia suburbs. this will be a surprise election for the democrats. they're not buying into the president's policies and the fact that he has not been able to bring jobs or do a lot of the things that he promised.
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he really has no plan for the future. those counties that you mentioned, monroe, bucks, chester, a lehigh, we are doing very well. we are ahead in lehigh county. our polls show this as a dead even race. i think "the inquirer" mentioned this race is getting closer and closer. it will be a battle on the ground. we think we have the best round game in the country. joshed just said he thinks they have the greater the ground game. host: we have an average of all the polls giving the president in pennsylvania and ed, 4.8%, based on all the surveys. josh shapiro, the senate race could also affect turnout. senator casey is ahead. would you admit this race is a
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lot closer? guest: tom smith has spent nearly $20 million of its personal fortune spreading around his anti party message. anytime you invest $20 million in advertising, it will affect a race. what have seen in the latest polls, the race is stabilizing in the senator is strong, someone who enjoys support not just in the philadelphia suburbs but areas across the commonwealth where democrats do not often do that well. he is a unique political individual, an outstanding public servant. he will win this race and so will president obama. one or the other may run a point or two ahead, but which will be ahead of the other? i have to take exception with something chairman gleason said. if the race is as close as he
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says it is common no poll has shown it as close as he says, then you would see mitt romney here. as john mccain was four years ago spending the money that they spent. this is a close race in the sense that all states will be close and this will be a very divided electorate, but pennsylvania remains firmly in the president's call amanda will be delivered by the strong ground game have been building under the leadership of our outstanding democratic chairman and our great executive director. we know how to win elections in pennsylvania on the ground. we are a bottom up party. we understand how to pull it off and we will. iran host: table discussion on pennsylvania politics. josh shapiro is the chairman of the montgomery county board of commissioners, a democrat, and robert gleason, the chairman of the republican party in pennsylvania. we have a phone line set aside
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for those of you who live in the keystone state. from erie, pa., good morning. caller: good morning. i have two concerns. if you years back, i had a friend who was disabled in a wheelchair and i pushed him to the voting place of that he could register. we voted in the rain, on foot. he voted, came back, and a few weeks letter -- later, a letter came in affirming he was a registered voter. we had to fill that out. much of it was in spanish. it was very discouraging. he never voted again. i'm wondering if that's going to happen with a lot of people who are immigrants. we have a lot of immigrants in erie. have done something confirming that they are able to work here, especially with this voter id
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thing. host: robert gleason, would you like to address this? guest: i'm not aware of that procedure. the voter id, as terry madonna mentioned, identification will be required. the president showed his idea in chicago the other day. this has spread across the nation. people still have to show their photo i.d. and i think you need to. you need to show it to register in a hotel, get on an airplane and, do anything. the state has gone overboard trying to give these three identifications to people. people will be able to vote even if they do not have a photo i.d., but they will be asked for it at the polls. 19 other states are doing this. the president did not seem to object to sharing his driver's license when he voted in chicago. host: josh shapiro, i want to address these to you? what is the state of the
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pennsylvania economy? what's the unemployment rate? how much had unions spent across the state? guest: the economy is improving in pennsylvania. if you look at what the president inherited, losing 800,000 jobs per month across the country to know gaining a few hundred thousand every month with a few straight months of job creation, we are seeing job creation in pennsylvania. the president has a unique focus on all different aspects of the energy sector and it has helped natural gas investment here with the marcella shale. -- marcellis shale. life sciences, education, health care. this is growing a lot due to the president's policies. he has had to combat the governor and many members of chairman gleason's party who have tried to stymie that
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growth. we want to see those policies take hold in continue to grow. one other issue he spoke about, the voter i.d. law, there is still confusion in the commonwealth. the severed by the republican party in pennsylvania and for governor corbett's administration to confuse people, which they do not, is something that i think was designed to suppress certain votes. i'm not suggesting that was his motive, but it is the motive of some republican. it is unconstitutional. people who want to vote, if they do not have an id, they can still go to the polls and have
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their constitutional records looked at. they will be asked for their photo id. the use of photo id has been accepted by both parties. it is something that is absolutely critical since terrorists attacked us. the right thing to do is to show photo id. the democrats are worried about pennsylvania. in 2010, we won the u.s. senate seat and the governorship. we won 112 seats in the house. we have 12 out of the 18 congressmen in pennsylvania. we expect to -- we have 112th -- 12 seats in the house. tom smith spent $20 million. this is a free country.
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you can spend as many money as you want to. the reason he has been able to move forward is that bob casey has done nothing for six years. he has not introduced one bill passed in the united states senate. he fell asleep and tom smith moved up. to criticize tom smith for being tea party tom, i love it. a lot of people embrace the policies of the tea party. >> tea party, smith is not going to sell to the south part of the state. i have no problem with tom smith spend the money from his personal fortune. that is fine. calling senator casey empty. that is wrong. he has been on the front lines of protecting workers' rights. he has made sure our environment has been kept clean. senator casey has been a leader
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on education. he has been an outstanding leader on foreign policy, standing up for allies like israel. senator casey has been an outstanding senator. for tom smith to suggest otherwise is wrong. it is fine for tom smith to go on the air and compare his ideas for example wanting to shut down medication -- medicare as we know it. that is a legitimate debate to have. but going on the air and sending 20 million years -- dollars to attack senator casey is what people are sick and tired -- $20 million to attack senator casey is what people are sick and tired of. he will be rejected in this election. bismarck,s go to north dakota. thanks for waiting. caller: i would like the floor to yield 10 seconds. if i could reserve 10 more, i
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would like to be heard a little bit more. host: this is not the u.s. senate. caller: people who put the u.s. senate in place, my point of view as an independent is, when george bush was our present, -- president, you do not talk about the president negatively. he has the vote of the entire united states. it is the job of the congress and the senate to cooperate with our direct advocates straight from the top. he knows what we want because we voted for him. he made promises. it is your turn to help our president, our advocate. if he wants to make health care universal, help him figure it out, not sit back and figure point. host: let me get a response.
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we will give you another 10 seconds. i will go to robert gleason in pittsburgh. guest: this is america. the president has to stand for reelection. a majority of americans are going to feel he has not done a good job and it is time for a new person. the framers of the constitution gave them and years to serve as the president. this is america. it is a wonderful system. casey voted with barack obama 90% of the time. if barack obama loses, he will lose, too. he is tied at the waist with barack obama. caller: what i am seen is the american people are aware of the entirety of mitt romney's speech and the 47% and the war
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in iraq. i would rather have my children hitting good health care or my brothers who have been in iraq and vietnam or my father who was in vietnam and korea -- my family has moved around this country. maybe a time or two one of my brothers has had a problem. they deserve the treatment they got. host: thank you for the call. we appreciate it. robert gleason and josh shapiro, i will ask you a partisan question. give me one county that will determine when the state is going. one county in pennsylvania that will be a bellwether for you. guest: i will look hard at chester county. it is our strongest county in southeastern pennsylvania. i expect them to perform exceptionally.
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if they do, that means the other counties -- they did another job -- a great job four years ago. they carried about by 200,000. i expect us to break even this year. host: he leave the area around the philadelphia area when you say caller counties. guest: josh's county has the second largest number of republicans in the state after bucks county. look at that whole region. you ask me for one county. our most republican county in the southeast is chester county. i will look closely at chester county to see how it does. philadelphia is important to us, too.
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barack obama carried philadelphia by 470 cows -- 475,000 votes. i do not think we will lose it by that many. remember what the inquire poehl said. -- poll said. barack obama has never gotten more than 49% in any of these polls. i think that is what -- you have to get over 49% to be elected president of the united states. host: give me what county that will be a bellwether on election night. guest: i believe one thing the chairman said. i think chester county is an important county to look at. montgomery county is the most important county to look at. there is no evidence to suggest
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mitt romney and brought the obama are going to come out of the four caller counties even. when you look at what happened in montgomery county four years ago, barack obama came out of chester county up about 20,000 votes. you will certainly see some tightening this time, but you will see the president come out of the five county area will for at least a 600,000 vote martin, which will help carry him through the rest of the state. -- 600,000 vote margin, which will carry him through the rest of the state. we have a strong democratic team. i think the president will do well in the southeast. as the chairman and knowledge, the southeast is where it is at. people like mitt romney who are --extreme on women's writes
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rights will not play here in the moderate area of pennsylvania. we know how to evaluate candidates and i think people will reject mitt romney and tom smith. host: let's go to derry. caller: i would like the guests to address the catholic vote. someone mentioned the extremism of mitt romney, but barack obama has had some extreme positions on the left. guest: whenever barack obama tells the catholic church that they must can see to what the
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national government wants them to do with their health care plan, that was a kick in the sand in the face of catholics. catholics in pennsylvania and those who attend church on a regular basis, it is 56%-33%. this is a group of people who will make a huge difference in pennsylvania. there is no question in our minds. host: mary is on the phone, a democrat. caller: i have a republican sister and brother-in-law. they do not believe in medicare or social security. when my father, a world war ii vet, that kidney cancer, she and my brother-in-law did not help us out at all. i quit my job and quit my school
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to help my parents. i asked my sister, but she would surgery hadmy dad's he not have medicare. people depend on medicare and social security. my sister would not give you the steam also fur pants on a hot day. sake, do notgod's vote republican. guest: i am sorry for your personal challenges and the problems in your family. it reminds the voters how important it is to re-elect the president. obamacare is going to protect medicare. it will give people more healthy choices and more options and make our health care system more affordable. it is also important to point
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out that paul ryan which end medicare as we know it. mitt romney has embraced that position with his selection of paul ryan. he would turn medicare into a voucher system. so would tom smith, that is why bob casey and barack obama and joe biden has rejected -- have rejected that position. we cannot hand seniors like mary's family a voucher and say good luck, figure out the health-care system on your own. we need to reform medicare and to make sure it is solvent for the long term. but we cannot take the romney- ryan approach to medicare and ended as we know it. that is another reason why obamacare was needed and why it will prove to be ultimately successful in helping people in the united states to access affordable care. host: robert gleason, your
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response. calm i support medicare and social security because -- caller: -- caller: i support -- guest: i support medicare and social security because i get it. right now, for everybody, medicare and social security are going nowhere. it is the congress of the united states that will have to make the changes if there are any changes. just said it needs to be reformed. you admitted -- josh said it needs to be reformed. we need to reform its so that -- reform it so that younger people will have it when they need it. guest: the $700 billion taken
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out of medicare was made to insurance. it was taken out to ensure medicare could continue and take care of people like mary's family and take care of bob gleeson, who just said he is getting medicare and social security. -- gleason, just said he is cutting medicare and social security. barack obama will protect medicare. bob casey will protect medicare. host: let's go to mike in pennsylvania. do you feel like you live in an alabama-like state? caller: absolutely. pennsylvania is pittsburgh on the west, philadelphia on the east and george in the middle. host: what part of pennsylvania? caller: north central, right off
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of the interstate 8. when barack obama took office, 42% of the taxpayers were not paying any income tax. that is now 50%. people in central pennsylvania and all across the t are getting tired of this class warfare. you look at the most wealthy states in the nation, california, massachusetts, maryland. they are the most democratic states. they are the ones that claim they have all of the programs to help their constituents. you take the poorest states and they vote republican. why is that? is not because they are wealthy. they do not want government solving their problems. host: thanks for the call.
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josh, would you like to respond? guest: there are people in his community that may not be paying income taxes right now. the 47% that mitt romney spoke up and that the caller was referring to. it is wrong to cast seniors and veterans aside and suggest they are not paying their fair share. they pay their fair share entity to pay their fair share in other ways. i absolutely and completely reject the claim that mitt romney put forth. it shows how out of touch he is with what is going on in this country an average pennsylvania ns. host: let me bring up a question i brought up with terry madonna. pennsylvania is divided in the senate. you have a democrat, bob casey. as you look over the past four
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years, there has been a pattern of a republican governor serving two terms followed by a democratic governor followed by a republican governor. why is the state so evenly divided when it comes to statewide officeholders? guest: i think it is a coincidence. we have partisanship in pennsylvania. no question about that. our last election showed how big the swing was when we were able to win the house and the state senate. imagine winning five congressmen in one election. only one other state did that. that was new york. we will have 18 congressman. 13 will be republican. they call pennsylvania a blue state. we will turn it around this year. as mike pointed out -- and i'm sure josh worries about the
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mikes of the country. barack obama claims people like him cling to their guns and their bible. he said if you are in a coal mine that you might as well sell it, you are going to go bankrupt. this is how we make our money in pennsylvania. the president is in big trouble in pennsylvania. we will be the surprise in a couple of days. host: josh shapiro, we go back to the pattern of two term democrats and two term republicans. what does that tell you about the politics of your state? guest: we are a moderate state. we want to see people work together to get things done. montgomery county, for the first time in 140 years, the democrats are controlling montgomery county government.
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we understood when we got elected that we would have to work together to get things done. we understand the election is over and you have to govern together. unfortunately, tom corbett does not understand that. he will probably break that 8 year trends. he is in a vulnerable position. the bottom line is, we are a moderate state. we are a state where people evaluate the candidates and have an independent streak. i would like to come back to one thing chairman gleason said earlier. i am a man of faith. we have to explore all of the natural resources for energy in this commonwealth. i support barack obama. he reflects the views and values of many of our commonwealth. host: josh shapiro is the chair
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of the montgomery county commissioners. robert gleason is the chairman of the pennsylvania republican party. a response on our twitter page. i am sorry -- tired of both parties. caller: i ran as an independent candidate for the state of representatives two years ago because i was not impressed with either party. there are issues within the states that need to be addressed. it switches between parties at the state level. the attorney general has been of one party for 30 years now. it is important that there is also a sharing or splitting of responsibilities. i am not an advocate for both parties being the only way to vote. i will get to my points or
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questions. in pennsylvania, there is a button on the ballot that allows an voter to magically select all the people from that party, party line voting. i believe that is unconstitutional. i am surprised we do not get any data on how many times that button was selected in the past elections. we will probably not see that in the upcoming elections. host: we have a response beginning with josh shapiro. guest: i served seven years in the state house. we work to make our elections accessible by extending the time frame for early voting. i think it is important that we make our elections as open and accessible as possible to not just democrats and republicans, but independents and those in
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other parties as well. host: there is no early voting in pennsylvania and neighboring ohio. why is that? guest: the powers that be have rejected that in the past. i think they are wrong. we should have early voting. guest: i am against early voting. if you want to vote early, you can vote absentee. governor corbett has had the two budgets on time, which josh could never do. a democratic governor like rendell sent us into the ground and we had to bring the republicans in to provide us with leadership to get government under control and make it more darfur in again. i would like to ask -- more job
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for in again. are you going to deliver 80,000 votes this time? guest: there is a 20,000 margin in chester county. i thought there would be some tightening. i am continent we will come out with a huge margin from the five counties. host: an independent country -- independent caller from louisiana. caller: i would like to make a statement. do these people, speaking of the republicans, realize that the one person that will be controls in their party is -- controlling their party is grover norquist. host: thanks for the call.
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robert gleason, i will have you respond to the issue of taxes and the deficit. guest: people in america do not want to raise taxes. the way to get the deficit under control is to spend less money. we have been taxed enough. grover norquist does a good job. our governor said the same thing. stop spending. host: a democrat from pennsylvania is on the line. guest: my question is for -- caller: my question is for robert gleason. you said bob casey was an empty suit. pat toomey voted against a bill he helped write. how am i ever going to voted for
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republicans when they vote against a bill for political reasons? guest: i do not know about that bill. pat toomey is a strong supporter of veterans and jobs. he wants to stop spending money. that is why he was sent to washington, to get the costs under control. barack obama has us trillions of dollars in debt. we have had trillion dollar deficit. we cannot do this anymore. it is killing our country. that is why this election is between mitt romney, a businessman, who knows how to run an organization. guest: there are about a million more democrats than republicans in the commonwealth. the number of democrats continues to grow. the democrats in montgomery county used to be more than
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100,000 registrations behind. there are 40,000 registrations ahead. chairman gleason knows that registrations do not vote. those margins do not mean the democrats will win by that margin. you have to have an operation that will deliver your people to the polls. i think the democrats have that and that why you will see barack obama and bob casey do well on november 6. host: turnout on election day. guest: i think there will be a big turnout this year, around 60%. there is no intensity on the part of the democrats. i have been traveling around the state. they had it that years ago. the bloom is off of the rose. the people feel he has not delivered. i do not see the signs or the intensity. as terry madonna said, he turned
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out will be a little lower. there will be a lot of people voting in this election. we control all the facets of government in pennsylvania. he win the-he won montgomery county. 53 of the 67 -- he won montgomery county. 53 of the 67 counties went republican. that is what will make the difference on election day. host: robert gleason, chairman of the republican party in pennsylvania and josh shapiro, a member of the county commission. thank you for being with us. we will continue our battleground series tomorrow with iowa. the des moines register in
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dorsey mitt romney. we will get the democratic and republican -- endorsing mitt romney. "washington journal," 7:00 a.m. eastern time. thanks for joining us on this sunday. enjoy the rest of your weekend. i hope you have a great week ahead. "newsmakers" is coming up. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] now through election day, what our coverage of the presidential the-of the elections around the country. next on c-span -- of


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