tv Washington Journal David Wasserman Discusses Campaign 2018 CSPAN April 17, 2017 3:01am-3:47am EDT
announcer: thursday at 8:00 p.m. eastern, continued personal profiles of the cabinet, including betsy devos, tom price, ben carson, and scott pruitt. >> the states should join together and inter-into an agreement to address water quality issues and involve the epa to serve the role it is supposed to serve. announcer: friday at 8:00 p.m. eastern, maria shriver testifies before the senate committee on aging about research efforts to cure alzheimer's disease. >> i believe studying women in getting more women into clinical trials could possibly lead to the cure for all of us. announcer: this week at 8:00 p.m. on c-span. we want to welcome david wasserman, cook political report. good sunday morning. guest: thanks for having me back. host: this is a headline from "the washington post." don't hit the panic button on trump. what is the challenge, what is
the opportunity for the g.o.p.? guest: midterm elections are still 19 months away. so far the three months of the trump presidency has felt like three years. we don't know what the political environment will be like in 2018 but the first year, first couple months of a presidency are usually the biggest window for governing and legislating. republicans have a majority in the house, a majority in the senate, and whether trump says so or not, the buck stops with the g.o.p. in the mind of voters. so right now you have a combination of an angry democratic base. we know they're probably still going to be angry in 2018 but we also have a restless republican base that's very concerned about trump's ability to actually cut deals and get things done given the failure of health care and the likelihood of where tax reform is headed which is not looking much rosier.
that combination of a disappointed base and an angry opposition is a potentially toxic combination. host: you wrote the following quote. the most striking house statistic in the last 20 years may be the decline of competitive districts, places where members have the greatest political incentives to work on a bipartisan basis. there are only 72 districts between d plus five and r plus five less than 1/6 of the house and a 56% decline since 1997. this also represents what you say is a 20% decline from just four years ago where there were 90 swing seats. guest: that's right. 2that 164 swing district to swing districts is a 56% decline. we have seen the bottom fall out in terms of competitive districts in the house. a lot of reformers are pointing
to gerrymandering as the reason but what we found, we were able to isolate the changes, the calculations we made as a result f redistricting years from the p.d.i. we made after every election. we found that 83% of the decline in swing districts in the house was the result of natural sorting of the electorate. areas of the country getting more homogenous rather than . rtisan redistricters that has had an effect, a pro-republican effect. but really what we have is two americas with very little purple in between. host: let's talk about two elections. the republican elect from kansas getting a lot of attention.
some thinking democrats may pick this up in what was a heavily trump district. guest: that election was last week. the republican nominee there only won by seven points. that is a warning shot to republicans heading into the next specks election in georgia. a lot of republicans will be quick to point out that there are other factors in kansas that potentially mitigate that outcome. the fact that there is a very unpopular republican governor, sam brownback, whose approval rating is in the 20's. that costs republicans a few points in kansas to be sure. but keep in mind the 20 point underperformance is giving republicans heartburn going into another special election in a district in the atlanta suburbs that trump won. host: that is georgia's sixth district. this is available online. the trump effect and a democratic candidate who is
having to get above 50% is called a jungle primary. guest: this is a very unusual election process. i haven't seen a house race become this much of a national fixation. the georgia sixth district is getting a lot of attention from donors on the left. jon ossoff has raised $8 million, probably on his way towards raising more than $12 million for this election. host: let me stop you there. $12 million for a single house seat. guest: that's more than the five democrats who come from red states in the senate raised in this past three months combined. host: who is jon ossoff? guest: a former hill staffer, he worked for hank johnson who represents a more liberal district in atlanta. he is running in a district north of atlanta, traditionally republican suburbs, he doesn't
live in the district. he was a documentary filmmaker and exposing -- covering humanitarian crises around the world, and republicans are quick to attack him for touting that as a national security credential. host: let me show our audience some of the ads on air in atlanta. [video clip] >> is this what responsible leadership looks like? for those with pretisting conditions and low income seniors that could mean the difference between life and death. in congress jon ossoff will work to improve access to health care, not deny it. let's send a message to donald trump. vote for jon ossoff. >> liberal extremists will stop
at nothing to push their radical agenda. they're demanding you vote for jon ossoff for congress. he is one of them. ossoff will vote with nancy pelosi for more spending and a weaker military. don't let them hijack our congressional seat. stop ossoff now. host: the congressional leadership, that is paul ryan's political action committee, two different efforts to try to stop jon ossoff. guest: there are 17 candidates. what we have -- you wouldn't know that by watching the coverage. it's a very unusual special election format. everyone runs on the same primary ballot on tuesday and a lot of the vote will be early vote, people who cast ballots in
advance. so expect ossoff to start out with a big lead on election night. the key is watching to see whether he gets 50% of the vote. if he is over 50%, there is no runoff. he wince the seat outright. but if he falls below 50% which we think he probably will, there will be a runoff between him and the leading republican candidate on june 20. it's a top two primary similar to what we see in a state like louisiana. host: our guest is david wasserman. he is on this network frequently. we welcome our listeners on c-span radio. road to the white house, 2020 will start later this month. joe biden will be in new hampshire campaigning for democrats. no indication whether he will run in 2020 but the democrats are gearing up for the midterm
elections. who are its spokespersons? who is leading the democratic party? guest: great question. is it nancy pelosi? is there no leader? one of the great advantages i think for the out party is they have free reign to attack the leadership of the other side, the people in the white house for not getting the job done and they can benefit from anger from a number of different places. you are going to see democrats hammer president trump over not only their standard attacks from the left but also the failure to deliver on its promises, which the sentiment shared by some on the right. we have a president whose approval rating is in the mid to high 30's. that typically generates a big seat gain in midterm elections. the out party has gained an
average of 33 seats in the house and i think democrats are more hard-pressed to pick up that number of seats. they need 24 to retake the chamber. we have fewer competitive seats than we used to in the house, but still you are going to have republicans who come to a cross road. do they run with the president or run away from president trump? host: does nancy pelosi run for re-election or make way for somebody to succeed her? guest: it always depends on whether democrats end up having a chance to pick up the house. in the past few elections, nancy pelosi has thought democrats do have a chance to make her speaker again. but look, if she fails for the fifth straight time to put democrats back in the majority, i think the pressure is going to ramp up on her fellow democrats to install new leadership. host: david wasserman has served
as an analyst and numbers cruncher for the bbc, nbc news election desk, the house editor for the cook political report. you can check it out online. ted from north carolina, good morning. caller: yes, how you doing? i am commenting about the democratic party. it seems like they need to get rid of the rule about the 400 superdelegates because they give the establishment democrats the advantage. another thing about the democrats, they're going to have to learn if you become like the republicans and you run as the party of not the republicans, you are not going to beat the republicans. in other words you can't take money from corporations, special interests, wall street banks, and run against the republicans and say you are better than them. i think that's why they lost the last election.
i supported bernie sanders and now they have people like corey booker, taking money from big phrma. so it's not giving them -- people are looking at them and saying wait a minute, democrats, you have people like nancy pelosi who are in charge of the party and they're all millionaires. you are like the republicans, you know? host: thank you. we will get a response. guest: we talked about how divided the republican party was. there are a lot of divides in the democratic party. you will see in primaries for house and senate races in 2018 a number of democrats who come from the bernie wing of the pare and some who come from the more traditional clinton way of the party. i don't think one is a necessarily better route than the other for democrats in swing districts. you can make the case that a more moderate democrat could be a better fit for a slightly
republican leaning seat. on the other hand midterm elections are about turning out your base. -crats, of these bernie they're well suited for turning out the liberal base which has not come out in great numbers. host: talk about redistricting because i think iowa is one of the few states who does it through a nonpartisan commission. you had interesting insights. you wrote the following, redistricting is only responsible for a small portion of the swing seats decimation. in many districts the electorate has become much more homogenous. guest: that's right. we have essentially one red america, one blue america with very little purple in between. 61% of voters in the country live in landslide counties who voted for either trump or points. y more than 20
when you have that geographic polar station of the electorate. a lot are looking to promote nonpartisan in many states. more or less in california. a tradition of making redistricting a simple bureaucratic function. host: how key is health care for republicans running in 2018? base cameot to of the out and voted for republicans in 2010 and 2014 on the promise of voting -- replacing obamacare. could noticans
deliver, at least not yet on that promise. so what will happen if you have republicans that do not have this big issue to sell to their lot on midterm, there are a of republicans who are fearful of the consequences. host: up next, oregon. good morning. can you turn the volume down to eliminate the echo? ok.er: thank you. my question is simple for the guest. there are a number of moderate republicans like myself who support even eight democrats like senator ron wyden wondering what the guest thinks the chances are that ron wyden could be a viable candidate for the residency?
-- guest: interesting. i had not seen his name raised before for a candidate for 2020 that there are a number of candidates that will likely try to join the race. one of the most prominent senators are talking about, kiersten gillibrand is getting a lot of mention. and others. chuck todd saying he would not rule out another hillary clinton bid. that: i am not sure democrats would dominate hillary clinton after 2016. arguably, she was the most moderate democrat who could still win in today's democratic party. we will always wonder, would bernie sanders have beaten donald trump if we were able to see that matchup and 2016.
i think the one democrat who would have beaten donald trump joe biden but how could joe biden make it through a democratic primary when today's party has moved as far left as the republican party has moved right? host: good morning, new jersey. thank you for joining us. caller: i would like to make a statement and i have a question. i was listening to what was andg on in new york, syria, so on. i was born in spain during the civil war. i am sitting here wondering what is going on in this country between the republicans and the democrats. my way or the highway? losing.
we have fake news and so on. long will its, how goings at the rate we are to reach what happened in turkey, what happened in need peninsula of korea? host: thank you. guest: we are looking at a couple of factors. the biggest one will be president trump's approval rating and to the extent there is a rally around the flag affect after a major international incident or a couldry operation potentially take away attention from some of the domestic issues that are giving republicans big problems right now and potentially boost president trump's approval rating at least
into the 40's. right now he is in the mid-to-high 30's. we will see what happens with the international issues that have taken a bigger place on the stage. host: i asked you about 2020 because the individuals running will have a fairly visible role in 2018. someone says, i hope the democrats don't make the hillary clinton mistake again. another, even democrats are not dumb enough to put hillary up again. and another one says, kiersten gillibrand and cory booker are running. guest: now i think we will have a largest stem accredit field in 2020, particularly if president trump's ratings are still mired
where they are today? will he get a high married challenge? a lot of republicans think he is not a real conservative and never has been. what we've seen in the last half-century is the last two presidents who lost reelections also had to overcome a big primary challenge in the beginning phase of the campaign. big factor inbe a how satisfied the public's with an incumbent and whether that incumbent is vulnerable. host: we are with david politicalof the cook report. caller: good morning and happy easter. i was getting ready to go out when i heard a gentleman caller and talk about how hillary lost. beat her down into up so
bad. donald trump, and i don't care about russia or whatever, didn't it destroy hillary. it was bernie sanders and his coalition of cornell west and whatever. my thing is, i was not going to give to the democrats anymore -- when i saw the young man correct me on his name -- running today, i will contribute to his campaign because i am tired of these bombs bursting in air and the cities. i am more concerned with donald when and what he is doing he is talking about foreign affairs. we are in the biggest mess i've ever seen and i mean, it is huge. sanders is not there because when he tells people about -- they take half of your paycheck on single
payer. thank you and good morning to everyone. happy easter. host: thank you. we will let you get in the car and go to church. some people are thinking, where was that energy level last year. hillary clinton might have one if that hadates happened last year. we might've been talking about a democratic president and set of all of this anger. senate mind there are 10 democrats who are up for reelection in states that trump 2018 midterms. and you wonder, will those seven democrats, a lot of them tend to be more conservative democrats, generate the same enthusiasm that john off box in this one has.
is running in a race that many thought republicans should have one. and she is considering a house run. how serious is she? republicans12, nominated a lot of very suave candidates. voters were running away as if they had fleas or the plague. but now they are nominating much stronger candidates from red states. in wagner is one of them from missouri. in wagner is one in missouri. also, montana. up for reelection in a state donald trump one by 42 points. democrats have their work cut out for them. when we talk about heading into
2018, the enthusiasm favors democrats but the map favors republicans. in the senate, it democrats have three quarters of the seats to defend. a candidateoe have running against him yet? guest: not yet. but one from west virginia, a top trending district in the country could be a strong contender if he chose to jump in. host: good morning. caller: good morning. i have an opinion on the democratic party. if they want to start winning elections, they need to start getting rid of some of their far out west ideals. and they should develop a conservative democratic party that would appeal to people in
the them aquatic sector. caller: a lot of democrats on whycoast tend to forget democrats won elections in the last century. they were winning support from working class voters across the country for many years. president obama, when he won the election in 2012, he carried only 22% of america's counties but a lot of those rural midwestern counties in places like ohio, minnesota, wisconsin, he was winning 40%-40 5% of the places. those hillary clinton never went dairy -- lost result she won a lot of those by 40-45 points. so they are in a difficult place in the electoral college. they are on the upswing in places like texas and arizona but not white winning yet. democrats have a choice to make in 2020.
did they try to win some states they not won in a long time or do they go back to those working class democrats to supported them. what do you think they will do. guest: democrats cannot easily pick one or the other. they have to be able to appeal in places like north carolina and potentially places like arizona. they can't afford to lose a state like minnesota or maine, both of which they won in 2016 by less than three points. it will have to appeal to a lot of different corners of the country which won't be easy. host: mckinney, texas, republican line. colors becausef there are a lot of people moving here to texas. i want to point out there are 1865 families a day moving to
the state of texas. isn't that interesting? my question for david, let's talk about the 800-pound gorilla in the room. ist people assume, david, and am assuming you and steve also innk that trumps when november was an outlier by winning the electoral college vote.sing the popular i would argue that perhaps for the rest of my life, we will win, that is the republicans, we winning the electoral college in losing the popular vote. what say you? a for a long time there was blue wall that republicans just could not penetrate. donald trump actually had an opportunity to win the white house while losing the popular vote. the reason was he was unusually popular with three demographic
groups that work concentrated in safe states. college-educated whites who had been against him from the start primaries. a lot of them live on the coast and new england and in places like texas and kansas. vote by moreatino of a margin then anyone who has ever run for president and yet half of the countries latinos live in california, texas, and new york which is totally safe on the electoral votes. voters. inonly 146% of the vote utah, underperforming by 26%. but you can when the six electoral college votes in utah with that. so it was a perfect storm for hillary clinton to win the
popular vote by 2.8 million and still lose the election. democratic party has gotten so rotten and corrupt i do not think they will ever win again. starting with fast and furious. the irs. right onillary clinton down. i do not think there will ever win again. thank you. host: george, thank you. >> political fortunes turn pretty fast. independent voters will be the arbiters of the next vote. partisan democrats would argue this is the same under the inrent administration, but 2010 independent voters voted for a republican candidate by 90 points and gave republicans control of the house.
gave democrats stashed them across the house. how are they feeling right now. they are pretty skeptical of this administration. host: this one says, they must advance a woman who was black guy.ot an old, white guest: today's politics is about identity. we see this even in congress. a couple years ago, white men were still a majority of the democratic party. today they are only 41% of democrats in the house. so there really is this drive in the democratic party that does not exist so much on the republican side to make on a sunday white house look more like the applet represents. that is a driving force in today's democratic party. it could be very difficult for someone who is not a woman or
minority to make it through a democratic party for president in 2020. host: mary, good morning. color: it morning. my statement is i do not think the democrats are going to win if they keep going on the identity voters. they turned their backs on the working class. the same people that voted for bernie sanders drifted toward trump. for a democrat to get back into power they need to go back to class.asic for working visit, talk about jobs, not talk about illegals coming in and just stick to their basic values and to stop turning their backs on the working class. also, i would say for cory booker, to me he is just another hillary clinton. i had to hold my nose when i went into the voting booth because of what they did to
bernie sanders and depth they continued their ways i will not continue to the democratic party. host: mary, do you think bernie sanders should run again in 2020? caller: i hope he does. i think he represents the working class. they have been forgotten. everything is about corporate america and the democrats have lite.unning democrat host: what do you think of joe biden? joe biden.ove if he ran, i would vote for him. either bernie sanders or joe biden. guest: what i hear from democrats on the coast and big cities, a lot of protests, a lot of anger. what i do not see a lot of introspection. donald trump ran on all of these things.
63 mine people almost voted for him. he won the election fair and square. host: as many people voted for barack obama as hillary clinton and that shows you where the map change. guest: there were more that did not vote for either in 2016 as opposed to 2012. a far lower turnout. democratsu look at standing in the interior of the country, what was fascinating for me when i analyze county by county the election votes was there was only one county out of 3000 in the country that voted for obama by 20 points in 2012 andvoted for donald trump 2016. it was howard county, iowa, along the border with i made some calls and it was
interesting to talk to the democratic chair and republican there. and what i heard was there is one major employee in the town to that has been there for years. the donelson county which manufactures auto alters. a uaw plant. macaw to had long-standing labor ties to the democratic party and had voted against republicans for years because was were where the party essentially shipping jobs overseas. what donald trump was able to do was mutate the genetic code of the republican party on training and emigration to appeal to those type of voters so you saw a huge swing. when democrats say this election was driven by james comey or russian interference or a lot of racists who came out of the woodwork and voted for the first time. what i see is not that. i see voters who voted twice for
the first african american president who were persuaded by donald trump to vote for his brand of change. host: maria in california. welcome. caller: david, what do you think are the chances we are very energized and california. marching all over it the place. i think we are going to win quite a few, take away quite a few of republican seats. even darrell issa barely scraped through. duncan hunter is having problems. people are demonstrating. the chances of picking up quite a number of seats in california? host: let's talk about that. that is a transitional district becoming a little bit more competitive every year. guest: that is right. e one by the most narrow margin
of any republican. beforets need 24 seats republicans take control of the house. there are only 23 republican sitting and states were hillary clinton one. so there is no way back without toving into trump territory win some seats. however, there are four republicans in orange county alone who said an district like ed royce, sitting in districts that hillary clinton carried. democrats can't win back the house without making begins in california. host: happy easter to america and to you. i am calling because a few years ago on national public television, i saw bill clinton
candidate $500,000 grant to a .ishop in kenya, africa and, this bishop was -- i don't know, he was one of the christian bishops of not catholic. but he was handing this bishop this grant from the clinton foundation in order to promote -- this bishop promoted gay rights, abortion rights, and that why he was getting this huge grant from the clinton foundation and personally i think the corruption of the clinton foundation calling itself a charity when it was really just promoting its own causes and its own purposes throughout the world is one big reason that hillary lost. arete to use terms that derogatory, but i do believe donald trump was right. she is the queen of corruption.
she has never been investigated properly. i think all of the agencies and the government were pro-liberal, pro-progressive, and that is why the clintons got away with what they did for years. host: thank you for the call. how do the democrats turn the page on that? factorbe one unifying for the party after that was hillary clinton. republicans knew they disliked her intensely. a lot of republicans came out of the primaries not especially enamored with donald trump and a lot of traditional republicans, particularly those who care deeply about social issues who very worriedy about a twice-divorced casino -- owner, still voted for
him. caller: good morning. thank you for c-span. i just had one question regarding the democrats running. why aren't they running to be checked on the president? because congress is not doing that. they are allowing him to do whatever he wants so why is that not there at theme when they are running. that there needs to be a check on the president? guest: it was a big driver in 2010 and 2014. the same can work against republicans and 2018. look, a lot of voters in the middle of who were not particularly ideological or political but show up and photo,
they say, i do not want either party going too far. i don't want to see obamacare prevail in its current form but i do not want to see it totally repealed. i want something in the middle. so they see a check on the power is a best avenue for achieving that. i will be curious whether republicans can motivate their own base but also appeal to the middle. host: a half minute left. going back to the time magazine peas. what is the trump effect? guest: in some ways, trump's election was the best thing that happened to democrats after the election. it looked for a time they had no chance of taking back the house before the next census but i will put it this way, the pressure was on kansas to prove they could hold on to what they
had as really deep trump country. the pressure is on democrats in this week's special election in georgia because of they cannot win back districts that voted for trump by less than 4%, then they don't really have a chance to take back the house. >> c-span's washington journal live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up, charter schools usa joins us to discuss the history of charter schools and efforts by betsy devos to reform education and advanced school choice. next, the national consumers league talks about consumer scam and organizations push for the 115th congress to do more to protect consumers. the atlantic council joins us to examine how much the u.s. contributes to nato compared
what other countries pay. be sure to watch c-span's washington journal coming up at 7:00 a.m. eastern this morning. join the discussion. ♪ communicators,he a look at the role of analysis at the federal communications commission with the economists how singer. .e is interviewed >> you are saying that google should be regulated by the fcc. >> what i am saying is when congress starts thinking about what a future fcc would look like, and we are thinking about discrimination by vertically integrated platforms, the conversation should not be limited to isps. the threat that google poses to innovation in the contents base desk space -- space.
>> watch the communicators tonight on c-span two. >> in case you missed it on c-span, cia director mike pompeo on national security and wikileaks. >> while we do our best to collect information on those who pose a threat to our country, individuals such as julian assange seek to use that information to make a name for themselves. -- theyas they make care nothing about the lives they put at risk or the damage they cause to national security. >> the former pakistani president -- >> they must understand pakistan's sacrifices. and weg terrorism continue to sacrifice fighting terrorism. >> nato secretary jim stoltenberg.
>> ever since we were found back in 1929. that is that we are in alliance where we have promised to protect each other. one for all, all for one. addresses ausafzai joint session of the canadian parliament. >> 130 million girls are out of school today. and him and study not know the statistics but the understand that education is the only part to guide the future. >> rex tillerson on u.s.-russia relations. >> we discuss the current state of relations. i expressed the view that the current state of u.s. russia relations is at a low point. there is a low level of trust between our two countries. the world's to foremost nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship.
>> c-span programs are available at c-span.org, on our homepage and by searching the video homepage -- the video library. aboutid goldstein talks military modernization. this is 45 minutes. [applause] >> well, ladies and gentlemen. welcome. it's a pleasure to see these handsome faces out here heritage . i will introduce a man who needs no introduction. i have known general goldstein for 25 years. 25 years ago this month we were in the throes of amateur a second phase of training and having the times of our lives.
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