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tv   Campaign 2018 Latino Voters the 2018 Midterm Elections  CSPAN  October 25, 2018 5:58am-7:00am EDT

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daily. in 1979 c-span was created as a public service by cable television companies. we continue to bring you unfiltered congress coverage, the white house, the supreme court and public policy events washington, dc and around the country. c-span is brought to you by your cable or satellite provider. vargas held a press conference to talk about the influence of hispanic voters in this year's elections. the hour-long event took place at the natural -- national press club in washington. you are watching campaign 2018 coverage on c-span. >> good morning.
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welcome to this briefing on latinos and the 2018 election. arturo we are an association of elected officials. we are a national nonprofit, nonpartisan organization to increase the participation of latinos in american democracy. in ourly, voting elections, which occur every participating in american democracy and today, we want to focus on what we expect may happen on november 6, 2018 with regard to the latino electorate. first, i'd like to express my appreciation to the members of the educational fund team who made this event possible by putting together the research, the visuals that you will see, the analysis. all this comes together because
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we have a terrific team at the fund, working coast to coast to make the work possible. my appreciation to my colleagues. thank you for all of you who helped make this possible. my presentation will be in three major parts. first an overview of latino participation in the midterm elections. we really need to compare 2018 to 2014. but also i am us what will happen in 2016 with regard to latino voter performance and latino candidate performance and some milestones that we achieved. second, we will cover the factors affecting latino
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participation in this election. there has been quite a bit written by some hand wringing by some of the political parties, about latino enthusiasm in this election. we have been conducting a tracking poll. second, we will cover the factors affecting latino now we have spoken to 2,250 latino registered voters and we will be sharing with you what is on their mind with regard to this election and what they are doing to get ready for november 6th, 2018, as well as looking at some of the obstacles that latino voters still face. we are releasing today an update on our research on the obstacles that latino voters face presented by restrictive state i.d. laws across the country. many of those laws now are here to stay. so we are releasing latino voters at rick, 2018, and we will go through some of that data as well this morning. finally, i will be focusing on some races that we need to keep an eye on where we have some very exciting prospects for a significant increase of latinos and latinas serving across the country, and in the house of representatives.
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and then some races that are particularly competitive this year where latino voters can make a difference. with the partisan control of congress hanging in the balance. with that, let me just remind us of latino voter performance in midterm elections. this chart at the top is the blue line that shows you the number of latinos that are eligible to vote. you see in 2014 we had about 25 million latino adult u.s. citizens. we put the number now closer to 28 million in terms of latino adult u.s. citizens. these are people who are eligible to vote if they get registered. then you will see on the red line, the number of latinos registered to vote and the bottom line, number of latinos who actually turned out to vote in the midterm elections.
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election 2014 was a particularly troubling election for the country because it was a historically low turn-out for everybody, not just for latinos. that was something that really troubled us, concerning the lack of latino engagement in 2014. you will see at a national level, the turn out of all registered voters was only 65%. only 42% of adult u.s. citizens in the country voted in the midterms in 2014. the turn-out for latinos was also historically low no 2014. a turn-out of only 53% of registered voters and a turn-out of only 27% of latino voting age citizens. what was behind this historical turnout?
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when we talk about the latino electorate nationally, it is that it is heavily influenced by the performance of latinos in california. more than one out of four latinos eligible to vote in this country live in the state of california. so latino electoral performance in that one state affects latino performance nationally. that is what we saw happen in 2014. california in 2014 experienced its lowest turn-out ever in the history of the state for a regularly scheduled election. there was nothing going on in california in 2014. there were no competitive races. there was virtually no campaign by the incumbent, who considered their re-elections a foregone conclusion. so californians in general, and latinos with them pretty much stayed home in that election. that brought down the latino voter turn out as a national number. things are very different in 2018, and we expect that to change with regard to the competitive races not just in california but across the
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country that is building latino voter enthusiasm. a quick reminder about our most recent national election, election 2016. we did have a historic turn-out of latino voters in that proceedings election. 12.7 million latinos turned out to vote. that was a 13% increase in number of voters than the previous presidential election in 2012. by the numbers, you will see that the turn out of voting age citizens for latinos was 28% and flat for 2016. i draw your attention to the turn-out of latino registered voters. in 2012, nearly 82% of latinos registered to vote turned out to
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vote. and in 2016. more than 83% of latinos registered to vote turned out to vote. the correlation here is that if we manage to get latinos registered to vote, they are going to vote. so any obstacles to voter registration is a direct -- has a direct affect on latino voter turn out. so we are very enthusiastic about systemic changes being made around the country to make voter registration more accessible to the american electorate. things like preregistering 16 and 17-year-olds, making voter registration more automatic. making sure that all adult u.s. making sure that all adult u.s. citizens in this country are able to register to vote and that registration doesn't present an unnecessary obstacle to voting. registered, eight ou of them will turn out to vote.
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we have more work to do there to make sure registration becomes a fact of life for every adult u.s. citizen. there were some significant milestones in 2016 that have shaped the american political landscape for latinos. we saw the election of the first latina to the senate. the election of the first dominican american to the house of representatives. and the election of the first puerto rican to the u.s. house of representatives from the state of floor. those are some milestones in 2016, and we anticipate even more milestones in 2018. >> in terms of latino voter performance, in our analysis of how latinos have performed in midterm elections over the course of the past eight midterm elections, our projection is that we will have 7.8 million latinos voting by november 6, 2018.
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when i say by november, that is because voting has already started across the country in early voting states. our track poll for week eight that we will be releasing today shows that 5% of latino registered voters have told us they have already voted. so voting is happening. this is a reflection of latinos following what is happening at the national level in terms of elections. this 7.8 million numeric turn out of has no, sir represents a 15% increase of turn-out of latinos over election 2014. here is a representation of how that break-down is by state. we know that there are many competitive races for governor, for the senate, for con congressional districts across the country. these are your projections for latino voter turn out in the states with the largest number
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of latino voters. arizona, 486,000. california again. to my earlier ., california is very much -- is an outlier in terms of the national electorate of latinos. in california we expect more than two million latinos to vote. that is more than a quarter of the total number of voters national. colorado, 225,000. over one million in florida. more than a quarter million projected to vote in illinois. 284,000 in new jersey. 178,000 in new mexico. which is comparable to the number of latinos who voted there in 2014. over half a million latino voters expected to turn out in the state of new york. and texas, again with very compete tiff races, more than 1.1 latinos expected to participate by november 6th, 2018. texas being one of those early
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voting states. so the factors affecting latino participation in 2018, there is lots going on around the country that is affecting latino participation in our election. first i would like to focus on some of the obstacles that we continue to see latino voters encounter in voting. in your pact today we are releasing latino voters at risk, the impact of restrictive i.d. requirements on the nation's fastest growing electorate. we have published this report now in previous elections. this is an update to that. this lists the states that have new voter i.d. requirements for 2018. they include, arkansas, iowa, missouri, north dakota and tex -- and texas. states with new voter i died is new hampshire.
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states that have proof of citizenship requirements to register is arizona, mississippi and tennessee. and strict voterism d. requirements in the states of alabama, arizona, georgia, indiana, kansas, mississippi, north dakota, tennessee, virginia and wisconsin. having se laws end up go fect on is -- there we is on more than one million potential latino voters being affect the by these restrictive voter i.d. laws. this map presents the number of latinos in each of these states that could be affectled by these voter i.d. laws. we know that latino voters are less likely than non-latinos to have the kind of voter i.d. required by many states. we know that many latinos have
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ncountered troubles to voting. i will get into that because we see that being reflected in the very same tracking poll where we are trying to measure voter attitudes and enthusiasm for 2018. we have also asked them about obstacles they have encountered. they have errored that consistent with the research that we see where these states have voter i.d. law. so that tracking poll began eight weeks ago. the polling firm latino decision has conductled the polling for the naleo education opportunity. of 500 consist ted voter. enthen each week, an additional sample of 250 registered voters has been added to that for a rolling tracking poll. this week is now week eight, and we have two more weeks to go. we will go into the field later
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this week and release the results of week nine. hopefully by tuesday of next week. and then right on the eve of the election will be the results of our 10th and final week of this tracking poll. this shows you again the methodology that we are using to assess the attitudes and experiences that latino voters are having in this election cycle. this mass a margin of error of about 4.4%. the major survey findings of our 10-week tracking poll, again we are now in week eight. latinos are ready to make their voices heard. what we are learning is that there is actually very high enthusiasm by latino voters to participate in this election. 71% of latino registered voters
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-- remember, these are people registered to vote. the eight out of 10 who typically turn out for elections. well, 71% of them are saying that they are certain they will vote, and another 12% stating that they probably will vote. you put those together. that takes you to 3%. that is a consistent figure of latino registered voters participating in our elections. the importance of this election is not lost on the electorate. 69% of latino registered voters this year say it is more important to vote in 2018 than it was in 2014. i think that is a reflection of the lack of any kind of meaningful outreach and campaigns being conducted in 2014 as opposed to what is at stake for the country in 2018. not only do latino voters see the are importance of participateing in election
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2018, but they are mobilizing people around them. this is smifert different than what we have seen before. a majority, 69%, of latino registered voters have indicated that they have encouraged a friend or family member to either register to vote or to vote this year. that is up from 56% of latinos who said they were mobilizing people around them in 2016. the reason why this is particularly salient for the latino community is that our research over the years about effective and credible messengers and mobilizers to t lateral notices to vote is that it is family members who are the most trusted and credible messengers to participation. particular, dlatinas in the household, mothers, wives, sisters, are catalysts for civic tigers pation. now we have 69% of registered
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voters saying that they are being those kind of catalysts and mobilizers. so we are seeing in reality an enthusiasm that we haven't seen before in the latino community across the country. and they are taking action in different forms that united states citizens express their political views. 69% indicate that they are encouraging or mobilizing family and friends to register to vote. 13% say they have donated money to a candidate or campaign. 22%. that is more than one out of five latino registered voters, have said they have attended a campaign rally or event in support of a candidate. 14% have said they volunteered to help a candidate or have done voter -- participate inside a voter outreach drive. and 18% have said that they have participated in a protest or demonstration against a
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candidate or an issue. so we are seeing that latinos are engaging in ways that we really hasn't seen in previous election cycles. so enthusiasm is high. mobilization is high within the latino community itself among ourselves. us as latino voters are mobilizing fellow latino voters. but what we are finding from our research is that that mobilization is not coming from external factors as much as it needs to be. so despite this enthusiasm, we see some obstacles that continue to persist. latinoser still once again in our opinion, and i think the data bears this out, are being ignored in this election cycle. despite the rhetoric of the political parties or the candidates running in state-wide and district offices, despite what they tell us, the voters themselves are saying, a majority of them, that no one has reached out to them to encourage them to
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register to vote in terms of it being a political candidate, a campaign or an organization that is encouraging people to register to vote or to vote. so there is no investment in the mobilization of latino voters from these outside political parties. and actors in our political system. the mobilization is coming from within the latino community. we are mobilizing ourselves. we are not seeing it happen to e extent that it needs to by campaigns, by parties and by non-profit organizations that are devoted to latino voter mobilization. one of the factors affecting mobilization by non-profit ganizations is the lack of tess pation. we at the fund have seen a dramatic disinvestment by
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national foundations, by funding entities, by donors in the mobilization of latinos for non-partisan campaigns. so efforts that an organization like naleo education fund would carry out has virtually no support from found acheses or don't years in this election cycle. latinos has been abandoned by the donor community in election 2018. when we see where the resources are going, they have very much been surgically directed to certain electoral races and campaigns so that particular electoral outcomes can be achieved by the don't years and the folks investing in races around the country. so we are not seeing investment n the lateral electorate
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overall. we are not seeing investment in the latino infrastructure for the long-term. we are seeing only surgical investment in certain races where don't years believe that latino voters only matter in those races. so as a consequence, and not surprisingly, a majority of the voters are saying they are not hearing from anybody in terms of the campaigns and the candidates. this is a systemic problem in our political system, that those with the resources to reach voters only reach the voters they think are important and don't reach the entire electorate. this is something that we at naleo education fund have been working on for years to try to change, a and to try to onvince latino voters in every district, state, matters. that every vote matters. not the ones they tell you that you are in a swing district and
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your vote finally does matter. no. we need to encourage our voters to actually become stakeholders in american democracy. that requires letang term sustained investment in the latino electorate, and we are still not seeing it. so fortunately, the big silver lining from our polls about what is happening in this ection is that latinos are self-mobilizing for election 2018. they are not leaving it up to the candidates or the parties. nonetheless, we still see ongoing problems at the polls. in our latino voters at risk report, we heilman the the states that have restrictive of r i.d. laws, and proof citizenship laws to register to vote. not surprisingly, a number of latinos, registered voters, are reporting they have experienced some kind of challenge or
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obstacle in voting. fully 46% of voters we have polled reported experiencing at dissuaded sue that them or prevented them from voting. 32% said they experienced long wait times to vote. 15% said that they experienced errors in their registration at polling locations. 15% experienced registration issues. these were at the top of the list. but yet 10% of latino registered voters told us that they experienced problems in presenting theirism d.'s when they were trying to vote, and 12% experienced issues with language assistance where they were trying to vote even where language assistance and languages other than english are required by the federal voting act. here is a chart of the number
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of latinos who errored experiences theme type of problems. 32% of latino voters said they experienced very long wait times to vote. that shouldn't be happening in the united states. you should have free access to vote. but we have seen in photographs and media reports in the past elections that folks are willing to endure these long wait teams because more and more people realize that elections have consequences. so where do latinos stand in election 2018? there are many issues that are important to latino voters. immigration and protecting immigrant rights has risen to the top of the list of what is on the mind of latinos stedgered voters in this election. these issue questions been asked in our tracking poll every single week. week one, eight weeks ago, we asked 500 latino registered
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voters, and then 250 new voters in every election. and consistently, rights have been at the top of the list. but very close behind there, which reminds us that latinos are not a single issue constituency, are issues dealing with economic issues, improving wages and outcomes was an issue that was very important to 27% of latino registered voters. creating more jobs was important to 24% of latino registered voters. and 22% of latino registered voters indicated that lowering the cost of health care was important for them in this election. so latinos are looking at the views facing america just like any other united states voter. economic issues, even though we may have a strong economy now, many latinos are not reporting that it is reaching them. at the top of their list is
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improving wages and incomes and creating more jobs. so while we may have low unemployment rates and a strong economy, latino registered voters are not necessarily experiencing that. among latino registered voters polled, 72% told us said they plan on voting for the democratic candidate for con depress, with 28% saying they planned to support the republican candidate for congress, and 7% undecide. some some of these close races, latino registered voters could make a difference in balance of control in the u.s. house and possibly the senate so. both parties continued to struggle to 2019 them. this is something we found particularly troubling. in the results of our tracking poll. if the sked them,
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democrats take control what, would they do? one out of three could not articulate what the democratic agenda was. nearly half could not articulate what the republican agenda was. what these parties continue to fail out is not just reaching latino voters to contact them to encourage them to vote, but also to explain themselves to latino voters. and if you expect somebody to turn out to vote, you have to give them a reason to vote. and if voters are not able to explain what a party stands for, then you are taking away a reason for somebody to vote. we will continue to do the work at naleo to ensure that every latino registered voter has free and unfettered access to the franchise. it is the part of what makes our democracy so strong that we have the ability to make sure
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that everybody is able to vote. so we will again be an anchor in the election protection coalition. we will have a toll-free number hat will be available in the days leading up to the election. -839-8682. on election day that phone number will be live from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. eastern time. so we will have call centers throughout the country, and we will have attorneys at the ready to make sure that if anybody calls and reports problems at the polling location, whether they are being told they are not registered to vote, there is a typo in their name or some of these obstacles we know that latino voters do face, that we
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will have some recourse for them so they can be sure to vote even if it is with a provisional ballot on november 2th, twamente. let's talk about what is happening with latino candidates for office. it as very exciting election when you look at the number of latinos running for office at all levels of government. there are three key senate races that havlat notices running. kevin deleon, it is california state senate president pro tempore is challenging diane feinstein. this is an extra party fight in california. texas, ted cruz running for re-election in a competitive race against oroarke. and in new jersey, robert mendez, the incumbent, seeking re-election, has a very good
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chance of being re-elect the. in the house, we fully expect to see some fresh faces in the united states house of representatives. we expect that these five candidates will be successful on november 6th. garza ya will be likely the new new rcia wig likely be the member. anthony gonzalez, a former nfl wide receiver and entrepreneur is likely to are prevail in ohio district 16. you have heard about alexandria cortes in new york being a new member of the new york delegation. and then in it, , big news. for the first time in the history of texas, two hispanic women -- there has never been a hispanic woman elected in texas to serve in the house. in 2018 there will be two.
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cobar and garcia, a past president, are likely to prevail in their races and will latinas to two serve in the house. in arizona, congressional district two, peterson is waging a competitive race for that seat. in california we have two races with very competitive candidates. there is a very, very competitive race in florida district 26. , a republican candidate, taking on donna. in new mexico, small is an
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attorney taking on the republican there to try to be the second latina elected to congress from new mexico. state senator richard oharra in virginia. in race to replace owe ryan. randy bryce is lodging a very competitive race there in wisconsin. so in the best scenario for us, there are currently 34 latinos in the u.s. house. if many of these candidates prevailed, we think there may be as many as 10 additional members of the house, bringing the number up from 34 to 41. that would be an historic high in terms of the number of latinos who are serving in the u.s. house of representatives. still not representative of the
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latino electorate nor of the population nationally, but significance progress, particularly for a midterm election. usually we will see this kind census or after a redistricting. here we are seeing a possible jump in the number of latinos in congress in a midterm election. quite extraordinary in terms of what is happening around the country. in terms of state-wade contests there are three latinos running for governor. david garcia in arizona. two a strong race for years ago. michele, the chair of the hispanic caucus is in a very competitive race to be the next latina governor of new mexico. and former dallas county sheriff, guadaloupe valdez taking on governor abbott in
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texas. there are a number of latinos running for lieutenant governors as well in california, florida, and illinois. in numb, regardless of which party wins, there will be a latino or latino lieutenant governor in new mexico in 2019. a number of latinos are running for re-election. the attorney general of california is running to be elected in 2018. other income bent. alex, nellie, secretary of state of rhode island, who was a first latina elected to stay wide. bush land economicer. hector, attorney general in new mexico. all of them with very excellent prospects of being re-elected come november. there are other latinos in
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stayed offices very competitive. from arizona to california, to indiana, nevada, new mexico. latinos really all over the country seeking to serve all of their constituents state-wide in their states as you can see by this chart here. and in particular, another mention of california, that california has five latinos running for state-wide offices in this election, which is quite extraordinary again. one thing we do see that is a little troubling is that we expect there to be a slight deadline in the number of latinos serving in state houses. this phenomenon really being a function of sitting state senators and state house representatives and assembly members moving up and running for higher office and not being played by other latinos or
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latinas. our projections is there may and net loss of three state senators and four lower house representatives in state capitols around country. once the election is done after november 6th, we will issue our final report on the numbers of latinos elected to congress, to the united states senate, state-wide offices and to state houses. stay tuned for that. that will come shortly after november 6th. finally, let's look a little bit at latino voter impacting gubernatorial races. here we see the percentage of latinos that make up the electorate in these very tight races for governor in arizona, colorado, connecticut, florida, new mexico, nevada, rhode island and texas. where the latino share of the vote could really tip the outcome of the election. we see the same thing in happening in some key senate
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races in arizona. he contest between mcsally and cimena. in california, deleon and feinstein. in florida, scott and nelson. in texas, the race between ted oroarke. latinos could be the balance in shaping the outcome of that race. again, if these candidates than a parties reach out to these voters. latino voter impact in hot contests. there are a number of significant and competitive races in districts all over the country where latinos make up a significant share of the electorate in those states. , six congressional districts in california that are very close, where the balance of the majority party
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in the house of representatives may be decided. latino voters could make a difference there. moving on to other states around the country. two districts in florida arcs district in new mexico, in nevada, and four districts in exas where latinos make up such a significant share of the electorate that they could be the deciding factor in the outcome of those races. to summarize, latinos are enthusiastic about voting. their self-mobilizing because the parties and the candidates really aren't doing enough to engage them and to mobilize them. despite this enthusiasm we know that there are real factors that are presenting obstacles to latinos to vote. some of those are the state restrictive voter i.d. laws that in our tracking polls, latinos tell us they are having a real life effect on their ability to exercise their vote. at naleo education fund, well
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continue to do all we can to encourage all latino adult citizens to register to vote to turn out in november. we go do this by a shoestring because of the disinvestment by in dations and donors latino civic participation around the country. but we can't just sit by and watch while elections happen without doing all we can to make sure latinos participate nd make their is voices heard. i will take some questions. >> thank you for doing this. i have two questions. one is if you can talk about what effect if any will the my grant caravan have on leaks, especially because republicans are mobilizing based on the threat of this invasion. number one. and number two.
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the d.n.c. is pushing back against criticism that they are abandoning latino voters. the d.c.c.c. has invested more than $25 million they say in reaching out to latino voters. why this distance? why do latinos feel they are abandoned when at least the democratic party says they have invested way more now for the midterms? >> let me take the caravan question first. i really don't know what impact that may have on latino voter turn out or participation. one of the benefits of having a trucking poll is that in this poll we are able to add issues as they occur. one of the issues that we asked latino registered voters in the tracking poll earlier this season was their views on brett kavanaugh when he was still being considered for the
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supreme court. western able to gauge latino opinion of the justice. we are hoping that we can include a question on the caravan in these final two weeks before the election. stay tuned for that. as far as the democratic party's claim they are investing, that may be true. but it can't just happen in one election. it has to be sustained, every single year. it can't be justing cyclical. it can't be surgical either. it has to be across the country in all 50 starts in reaching voters. voters in the tracking poll did tell us that democrats are doing a better job than republicans of reaching them. 53% said the democrats were doing a better job of reaching out to voters, compared to 30% who said republicans are doing a better job. but numbers don't lie. if 53% of latino registered
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voters consistently week after week after week after week after week tell thause no one is talking to them. -- tell us that no one is talking to them, then something is out there. [speaking spanish] [speaking spanish]
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>> good morning. thank for you doing this. have a follow up. you said that naleo expects a higher latino turn out and a higher number of latinos in the house. so given that, why is it a problem that this investment -- it seems like still there is by h by nevin ya -- inertia. they claim they don't need to do invex because there is growth. >> there is growth, and there
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is progress, but it is incremental, and it should be much more significant. if we had the kind of investment that is required to mobilize voters. latinos are self-mobilizing because it is not being done by external factors. imagine if there was an investment by both parties to truly mobilize latinos, the number of latinos in congress would be much higher and in state office would be much higher as well as in state capitols across the country. we are making progress, but it is despite the actions by some of the larger political forces. [inaudible question] why the disinvestment is an excellent question. we have told by some don't years that they prefer to only fund small organizations in particular districts and to ignore the electorate overall. i think the data about latinos
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feeling ignored bear out that strategy. that wealthy don't years only investing in races where they think latinos metaphor their outcome desires. it really ends up being manipulating the latino vote to their own ends without building latino engagement infrastructure. >> could you give some examples of better outreach, and does that include material in spanish? do you think having material in spanish is helpful or maybin sulling to the second and third generation that make up most of your voters? >> latino >> latino voters are a monolith, and any campaign to reach latino voters to be effective and smart knows they need you spanish and the need to use english. they need to reach older voters and the need to reach younger voters. older voters because they're
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more likely to turn out. younger voters because that's what the largest number of potential electorate is. you can't have a one size strategy for the entire latino electorate. and in terms of what more outreach means, it means hard work. it means knocking on doors, calling people, engaging them, listening to latino voters and not assume, not assume that you know exactly what's on their mind. >> i'm going to use your bilingual skills, if you can answer in both english and spanish. entries about your projection, or increases are very high for arizona, california, florida, illinois but extremely low for texas. is this a trend that just continues and we would expect we are seeing a lot of big numbers of early voting in texas as we
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speak, but the number here that you project is quite low for a midterm election. is this something of a continuation of a trend, are you disappointed that the result? >> our projections are based on past latino electoral performance and nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong. to have a much larger number of latino turnout in this election than those that we project. [speaking spanish] >> texas in particular, is it a trend? is it a surprise?
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were you expecting something bigger? >> texas is one of the most challenging states. i think you have a combination of latinos having had a history of discrimination in voting by redistricting patterns done in the state of texas. the restrictive voter i.d. law in texas i think as an impact. if you compare that to the number of latinos who say that they're being discouraged to vote i think there's a correlation, that there is suppression tactics happening in texas that is making this difficult for latinos to vote in that state. [speaking spanish] >> thank you very much.
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i want to ask two questions. i'm actually picking up on what he just asked. i looked at the latino shaping the political landscape sheet, and i noticed that the only states where you'll see a national decrease in the turnout is new mexico. and i'm curious to know if you have data that shows why, particularly because this is the state that has highest percentage of hispanic population, the highest percentage of hispanic elected officials. and you have a candidate for governor who was the former secretary of health of that state in a year that the democrats are saying that the top three issues are healthcare, healthcare, healthcare. >> right. well, actually we have looked at those numbers in new mexico much more recently, and we think the difference is not a decline but it is statistically insignificant, that we will see
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pretty much a level turnout of 2014 to 2018, which is still is disappointing. we know that new mexico also has had a trend of not having very high latino voter turnout. and i think that's one of the states that often gets ignored because it's a small state and it's not considered often to be a big player in the national scene. what happens locally is very important. so we will be following this very closely. >> my second question very quickly, do you have data showing that are particular challenges with registered voters being discouraged to vote because they are part of mixed immigration status families? >> we don't have data on that specific point. i saw a hand over here. yes, sir? >> on the side of usage or discourage or not very happy about.
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which states are the bright spots, and do you feel that any state is sort of replicating what happened in nevada and colorado over the past few electoral cycles? >> i actually think california is a bright spot in this election cycle, which is a dramatic difference from 2014 when there was nothing happening on the state ballot. quite the opposite this time. you have latinos running for the united states senate, for attorney general, for insurance commissioner, for lieutenant governor, for secretary of state candidates, all of whom have three-star prospect of actually winning reelection or election. a number of competitive races up and down the state for congress. so i see that as a bright spot. and we know that the history of california over the past 30 years has been one where latinos have shaped that state's electoral performance and the policy of that state.
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so i think that's a bright spot but also if you turn to the other coast and look at florida and see the race for governer. i think they are engaging latinos in terms of turnout. at the outseted that california is a disproportionate player in overall latino turnout in which we measure latino performance in elections. given the rolling tracking poll that you are doing, how do you
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sort of reconcile whatever you've seen as the bright spot in california which will be much more statistically confident within this context versus measuring this in other states whether it'd be texas and florida to large states? >> we have 2 more weeks to go in tracking poll. an additional 500 latino registered voters will be added to the sample. we expect by next week and certainly within the next two weeks we will have state-specific samples large enough to report the experience of voters in texas and california. so stay tuned on that. >> hi, arturo, thank you. i was wondering if you can talk about party outreach to younger latino voters versus non-younger latino voters? >> i don't know off of the top of my head on that, but we can certainly look into that because we do have a large enough sample
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of voters by age in order to track that, so we would be able to look that up for you. yes? >> do you have percentage in increase of naturalized citizens voting or registered this term? >> we don't have data on how many more naturalized citizens would vote in 2018 as opposed to previous elections, but the data are consistent that naturalized latino citizens outperform native born latino citizens. this is actually what distinguishes latino naturalized citizens from non-latino naturalized citizens. naturalized citizens from asia and europe and africa and north america, from canada, those naturalized citizens do not
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outperform their native-born counterparts. but that happens in latino community. that's an indication that when a latino legal permanent decides to naturalize, they are looking to participate in elections and they see ability to vote as something that they have earned and not taken for granted. the education fund has had a component since the inception. that work never stops. yes? since barriers to voting, so many people have long wait times, have you looked at polling place locations, especially if there are trends with high latino populations >?> -- with high latino
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populations? >> we have. we have some innovative reforms that are being replicated, including california. where it makes it easier for people to vote so they can vote where they work as opposed to having to go back to where they live. we are looking at systemic changes so that nobody is discouraged by institutional barriers to vote, which really way ofy of this -- a disenfranchising people by making it too hard to vote. ok, last question >>. i know -- ok, last question. >> in terms of the disconnect between the latino community saying they have not heard the outreach.
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do you think it is the type of consultants they are using for engaging is not sensitive to the humidity in terms of language access or messaging that is appropriate for the community, and not just not translate getting into spanish. maybe the messaging in spanish is a different connotation that needs that particular sensitivity, whereas the consultants for those teams in general are not being hired. do you think this is an issue or something that is not relevant thanore about the funding the message? >> i know that historically latino political consultants always feel that they are not being fully -- their expertise isn't being incorporated. by campaigns and candidates. i can't speak to this election cycle. i haven't engaged with political
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consultants this cycle in terms of experiences. in terms of post-mortem, when we look at how much resources were invested by parties and campaigns and candidates and spanish-language television, english-language television targeting latinos with latino messages and those political consultants would be able to answer the question. whether or not 2018 was a continuation of this trend that we see in the past. yes, in the back. >> quick question. with weekly polling that you've been doing, what's the case in florida given the fact like with the migration from puerto rico, we have a lot of puerto ricans moving to florida and, you know, there's been a lot of movement to get them to register. but has the hurricane or the issues pertaining to the island been a factor in encouraging puerto ricans to register to vote? >> because of the nature of the tracking poll, we haven't been able to ask state-specific issues, but we will have a large enough sample of florida latino
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registered voters and by ethnicity to be able to answer that question over the next two weeks. >> [speaking spanish] >> [speaking spanish] >> hard to conclude that even with the number of, big increase? >> not based on tracking poll yet because the samples are not large enough for it to be stastically reliable, we expect that in the next couple of weeks.
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okay, well, thank you very much for joining us today for latinos in election 2018. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2018] [captioning performed >> at 10:00 eastern on c-span, a brookings institution event on the war in yemen in its fourth year. the washington post previews the midterm elections and at 7:00 p.m. eastern, a debate between candidates and governor of south carolina. on c-span 2, the justice department host the summit where jeff sessions outlines federal ---enforcement strategies that gets underway at 9:00 a.m. and c-span 3, the center for american progress forum on internet hate speech. in about an hour


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