tv Washington Journal Michael Binder CSPAN October 26, 2020 10:26pm-11:06pm EDT
coverage every day. on-demand at c-span.org or listen on the c-span radio app. your place for an unfiltered view of politics. michael binder is the factory director of the public union research lab at the university of north florida. he is also an associate political science professor. let's begin with the importance of winning florida and any presidential election. where does it rank among the states? caller: florida is a -- guest: florida is always extremely important because it is extremely close. this year it has been particularly important for donald trump. obviously joe biden would love to have it. they are directing a lot of resources here, but without florida i find it extraordinarily difficult for trump to clear a path to 270 electoral votes.
this is vital to the trump campaign. host: why is that. guest: if you look at the states out there that are traditionally , the narrow pass that trump took last time, he inld have won with states the upper midwest. time around he is not going to capture all of those states. one, but theteal odds of him getting those with the polling numbers where they are in the things that have changed, i think florida is a linchpin for him. if the biden team can win florida, that puts the sting out of reach for trump. wins twothe president of those three, does he still need florida? guest: depends which two he gets. ande gets pennsylvania michigan, he can squeak out
without it. now you're looking at north carolina, arizona, maine, a congressional district in nebraska could steal an electoral vote here or there and then we are probably looking at an election that could drag on until the middle of november. as much as i like elections and this is what i study, i am really hopeful we know relatively soon who the victor is in this race. host: michael binder is factory director of the public information research lab at the university of north florida, out with a new poll october 20. this poll finds the former vice president is barely ahead of president trump in florida. break this down for us. guest: our poll came out about a week ago. we had biden out by a single point. it is florida. it is always going to be close. two points is a landslide in florida. always understand the margins you are working with here.
we did a couple of things a little different this time around. we attempted to get voters that were hard to reach. typically speaking for most political polls, if you call somebody up in the lun they don't want to take the poll, you just say thank you, have a nice day and you go on. callers can hear things from the respondent that might give the make limbs as to what the respondent is actually thinking. sometimes they will yell they are voting for democrats, or something of that nature. this time we created dispositions for our interviewers to record that type of information. and then based on the voting history, we were able to classify them as either likely trump voters are likely biden voters. often times people are willing to take surveys, but because of the private and secret nature of the ballot, they are hesitant to indicate who they are actually
voting for. they might refuse to answer the question. but, if you asked them about a job approval, do you strongly approve of the job donald trump is doing, you might get a response. the folks that indicated they were strongly approving of donald trump, and the folks up categorizeving, we those as well. we did that because 95 plus indicatef respondents job performance felt that direction. that actually give trump an extra 1.5% of support. there could be a hint of hidden trump votes in these polls, but not a big number. which voters are up for grabs? i-4 so few -- guest: so few. [laughter] who are note
plugged in as much. on the flipside, those are the folks who are least likely to turn out. while they might be a for grabs, they are also less likely to show up and ultimately cast a ballot. 2016's,ction, unlike there was a greater proportion of indecision later -- leading into that last week or two. 8% or 9%. the bulk of those voters turned toward trump. there were lots of republicans that were wary and a lot of independent, or nonpartisan affiliates, that lean torn -- leaned toward trump as well. showsdo have polling that these folks trending the same way? have they changed their minds? people howid ask they voted in 2016. we have done this a couple times. 2016, voted for trump in
you are 90 plus percent going to vote for him again. that is a wash. there is not a big difference there. the change, and the big change are folks that did not vote in 2016. that includes a lot of people that per maybe 17, not of age. it also includes a number of folks who are maybe just turned off by both candidates. they weren't particularly engaged for a variety of reasons. almost 2:1 four biden. begins to expand, we have had 6 million votes already cast, as the selectric begins to expand, it is going to benefit the biden team. host: john in wisconsin, supporting biden. we feel the same way in wisconsin that he is talking about. people in florida.
wisconsin used to be very democratic as far as madison and milwaukee, but now it is sprinting to kenosha, racine, green day. different areas. host: and what is that? caller: people are turning to the democrats and supporting biden more than they would donald trump. we see a lot of problems with donald trump. host: did these people vote in 2016? caller: yes they did. host: who did they vote for? it, thethe thing about climate was for hillary clinton. hillary screwed up wisconsin. and tooksed wisconsin it for granted. that foster the vote. host: thoughts? guest: i think with the caller was talking about exists in florida too.
i think sometimes people get really concerned about bellwether counties, or areas that might flip. where is the county to watch come over the city to watch good florida is not about margins. -- florida is about margins. the trick is not that biden is going to win counties like sumter, it is can biden trim away the lead trump had there in 2016? not is he going to wincan he reduce the marginst biden gets? that is where the trick in florida is. can you hold down the margins of victory for your opponent in areas where they are strong, and maybe in wisconsin and those rural excerpts, instead of it being 80-20 trump, you can keep it to 70-30 or 60-40. that will help biden. the same in florida.
does biden extend the lead hillary clinton had? can he rack up more votes in orange county and broward county and miami county, or does trump expand on some of the margins he had in some of those rural counties and keep it of -- keep it up above the margin? host: what tactics are the campaigns using to get the desired outcome for them? guest: a couple things. obviously showing up and coming to these areas is great because it energizes the base and gets folks excited. it gives them that extra little juice to make that phone call or knock on that door to try and get a voter to show up. your previous guest discussed it is not changing any buddies but, but -- anybody's mind, it is energizing the base, and that gets people to show up. the other thing happening in florida and across the country, it is just exacerbated in florida, is the micro-targeting
of different individual voters. you will see in the jewish community, the types of ads being shown, particularly on email and internet ads are down in south florida. the jewish community is targeting both the biden history on israel and what trump has done to support moving to jerusalem. host: the embassy. guest: yeah, thank you. it is early in the morning and my brain is not functioning. on the flipside, the biden campaign is highlighting a lot of the support that trump has given with a wink and a nod to right-wing white nationalist groups. if there is any group in the united states that is sensitive to that issue, it is the jewish community because of their history. those of the things that are happening at the micro level, as well as the in person appearances, to try and mobilize folks. host: let's hear from richard,
undecided in philadelphia. thinking don't have one way or another about this, whether i am going to get there or not is a question i am wrestling with. lookingerested in this, at the black male vote, the black male in florida below the there anevel, is increase in turnout. specifically adding to that, those who have been incarcerated. theirre any signs of participation growing? that is a great question. passed 2018, florida amendment four, which was designed to speed up and ease access to voting for former incarcerated felons. it appears at this point, mostly
because of the effort of the desantis administration, it has been a largely unsuccessful implementation of a ballot measure. less than 100,000 felons had been registered after that ballot measure. the impact will be limited from the felon perspective. what happened in the black community? ande see a return to 2008 2012 turnout numbers? -- when andrew gillum was running for governor, or do we see a number that looks more reflective of 2016 amongst the black community? florida was only about a percentage point as far as share of the electorate goes, but that percentage point is an enormous number in florida and last time, it could have swung the balance. host: our next caller in minneapolis, supporting the biden-harris ticket.
caller: good morning. i have been on hold for so long, i almost forgot what i called for. the phone was constantly ringing . then it accepted michael. -- accepted my call. and supporting joe biden his running mate, kamala. i really don't see another choice. everybody is talking about losing their health care. we haveus over 65, medicare, and other plans we can take along with medicare and they aren't expensive. a lot of them are free. know, -- would you please tell me why someone would
call in with an outrageous lie, and you know it is not true? why do you just go along with it? more people listen to you in the morning than any other station or channel on tv. this lady called in from theyornia and said anytime report a covid-19 case, they get almost $400,000. that's not true. i'm retired from the medical field, and i have friends still in the medical field. that is an out and outline. host: there is no way i can be an instant fact checker. you are more than welcome, when you hear something to research it yourself. what we are doing is getting people's opinions and perspectives, their perceptions of the debates happening in washington and around the country. especially ahead of eight days before the presidential
election. michael binder, what will you be watching for, on election night? as we get there, what are your thoughts on early voting? guest: those are two very different questions. early voting, as of this morning, which includes all of yesterday's early votes including in person and vote by mail that have been counted, over 6 million votes have been cast in the state of florida, a state that had 10 million cast in 2016. the early voting turnout is astronomical. the problem is, it is a skewed turnout, heavily democratic at this point as far as who has actually showed up. at this point, a little over 42% of the votes cast have been by democrats. only 36.5% have been cast by republicans. both 2016state win in
and 2018, republicans had a slight turnout advantage and they are down by six points right now. because of efforts by the trump administration and trump himself to downplay and scare folks about vote by mail, these republicans are not showing up. they are much more inclined to show up on election day. what is going to happen on election night, at 7:00 in the east and 8:00 in the west, when we start looking at counting returns. those initial numbers will include a ton of democrats. all of the early in mail and early in person. but those same day votes are going to be heavily republican. it may be the case that at joe biden -- that joe biden at 8:15 has a lead of 2% to 3%. in florida, that is enormous. it could also be fleeting, as same-day ballots start to creep
in from rural counties and more republicans start showing up in larger numbers. 8:15,en is not ahead at trump is going to win florida hands down. if biden is only ahead by a point or two, he is in trouble. he needs to be up by at least a few points to overcome that same day turnout by republicans. those are some of the big things i will be watching, along with specific counties. host: we talked about the latest showing the former vice president barely ahead in florida. when you think about the 2016 or wereere they wrong, they -- was the outcome within the margin of error, and explain that. guest: the margin of error is a range of uncertainty around these polls. in the state of florida, 14 million registered voters.
it is impossible to take a sample from that. even with that sample, done in the best possible way, randomized and we get a pure reflection of the population, just by chance we might get a few people who are more supportive of trump or more supportive of biden. there is a range of uncertainty around those estimates. the problem in 2016 was twofold. one, there were core let's that we had previously -- there were correlates. racially,o look at it as part -- as far as divisions around sex, geography across the state, all of this things are important to make sure you have a reflection of what your population is going to be. the one thing we didn't consider in 2016 because it had not mattered is the role education plays and whether or not some buddy has a college degree or not. that correlates much higher with trump.
most pollsters have now incorporated that in their methodology. the other problem with 2016 is we didn't address or pay attention to those upper midwest states. hillary didn't just ignore it, all the polling did, too. reliable polls in wisconsin and michigan and pennsylvania toward the end of the race, you missed those late breakers going toward trump. the other part about 2016, which polls cannot control is those late breakers that went toward trump. our last poll in 2016 was a week before the election. those people decided in the final days. what can polls do if voters haven't decided? a lot of work after the election has shown that. the other thing the polls didn't do in 2016 that they are doing now is calling all of those battleground states. we are partnered with the new york times and upshot polling and we are doing a lot of work with them.
we are calling all states across the country, with these data states, places you would never expect to be close like georgia and texas, but also places like arizona, north carolina, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and florida. states are paying more attention to state-level and national level polling. national level polling is instructive, but democrats are picking up a 5 million vote net out of california. that is hard to overcome for the rest of the country. polls are never perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but i don't think we are ready to throw out the baby with the bathwater yet. host: our next caller in indiana, supporting the trump-pentz ticket -- trump-pence. caller: i have one opinion i am ,aying, i watched that debate
president trump and joe biden and i am a strong supporter of president trump after that joe bidenen i saw it, denied everything he said. you have a tape on it. everything he said is on the tape, and no tv shows that. he denied everything. he lied about the whole thing as a politician. the second thing is, the only solution he has for the coronavirus is to say just put the mask. and france, if you don't have a and, they will fine you, still they are having problems. you look at the tv and the news, the number of people with this disease is going up. that is not the solution. the solution is, in my opinion,
and it is onene, of those things we have to live with. host: michael binder, how is the coronavirus pandemic impacting the vote in florida? guest: i think part of it is colored by your partisan lens. you can hear that with some of your callers. you can say a lot of the same things about one candidate you can about the other. all of that being said, the coronavirus is clearly the issue in this election. people talking about the importance of the economy, it is due to the fact that they are faced with struggles coming out of those shutdowns from spring and summer. this is the overwhelming issue. you can't go and talk to a friend for 20 minutes without something related to coronavirus coming up. how you view the handling of that by the trump administration and the various state governors is really going to impact your
vote choice. we talk about seniors in florida and shrinking margins in support of trump when they were so supportive of him in 2016. this is definitely one of those issues. the other thing i think people aren't thinking about is the senior population is changing. as people pass away and it gets re-populated with new 65 and plus-ers, those who turned 65 in the past four years are much more likely to have had a college degree than those prior to them. you are seeing a greater level of education amongst those retirees, and that is contributing to some of this shift toward biden as well. there was a lot going on, but obviously the coronavirus is extraordinarily important as the overwhelming issue, shipping everything. host: ronald in philadelphia. you are supporting the former vice president. how come? caller: in the first place, i would like to ask two questions.
the thing he said about some people -- maybe the question should be, do you believe the unappointed record? they told so many lies about so many things. what is to believe and what is not? i go around here and ask people, did anybody get hired. guys say no, nobody hired on my job. i ask people all over. i also want to know, have you hired a lot of minorities on either of the positions you have? guest: the role of unemployment, i think is something that gets a lot of attention depending on the numbers. the unemployment number as reported is relatively consistent, as far as methodology. is it a perfect reflection of all those folks who are not
working? absolutely not. what it can be is a comparison number. the one thing we can see is since the shutdowns began, that number is much higher than it was prior to that. the thing about florida in particular, and this is reflected in other parts of the country as well, because some parts of our country are disproportionately impacted. places around orlando and orange county and suburban counties that are just flooded with disney workers and travel and tourism, they have been really hammered and those numbers are much higher as far as unemployment goes. azure caller referred to, the racial and ethnic differences in unemployment are absolutely true. folks that are in more service based economies are much less likely to have been hired back, much more likely to be unemployed, and you see that across a variety of differences, not just in florida but in other
parts of the country as well. host: you are not seeing many competitive down ballot races in florida. guest: there are a few. we don't have any senate races or governor races, but there are a few congressional races that are competitive that maybe democrats have their eye on. their are a few state legislative races that democrats have their eye on. there is a seat or two the republicans are keeping an island. part of that is how the -- keeping and i on -- keeping an eye on. is, weer part of this live in clusters of people that are like us for a host of reasons. because of that, when you draw these lines that have to respect geographic boundaries or county or city lines, you tend to get districts that may be more homogenous than otherwise.
this is reflective not only in florida but across the country, you will see a lot of races that are determined in primaries, where turnout is very low relative to what we are seeing in 2020 for this general election. host: tina is next in pennsylvania. good morning to you. caller: hello, how are you? host: doing well. your question or comment about the state of florida. caller: on the state of florida? i thought i was just calling to give a comment on why i was voting for president trump. host: you can do that too. caller: i am voting for president trump, because four years ago i did not vote, but shame on me, being 64. i never voted in my life, in that way if somebody was bad, i didn't have a problem with it. i am voting for president trump this year, and i'm not going to cut down neither one, but the only thing i don't understand, and i don't think anyone will understand is if it wouldn't be
for the coronavirus, i don't even think biden would be in the picture. that is the main thing going on is this coronavirus, and not liking how trump handled it. what i don't understand is, if biden gets in, to the think he has this magic wand? that he is going to wave and all this is going to disappear? if he gets in and it doesn't disappear, we are still stuck with the virus, and then we are stuck with all the things he wants to do, which is twofold worse. running around with the virus, running around with everything failing. what do we do? i don't know. seriously, he doesn't have a wand to come in and get rid of this. host: let me ask you. you've never voted. you are 64 years old. when and what made you to decide you are going to vote this time? caller: i will be truthful with
you. i am calling from pennsylvania. my husband had 45 years in the coal mines. thousands of coal miners in pennsylvania. the first four years of obama, it was ok. husband was working in every buddy was working. he got in the second four years. , myt two years after husband comes home, he says something is coming down. all of these regulations, are putting us down. he is like tina, i worked in the minds. we have to make sure that everything that comes out of here is perfect, clean, regulations, before obama even came in. after that, all of a sudden, they were down. that just goes to show you that why i'm voting for trump. people vote -- i will not vote for biden, because we know what he is after.
people vote for what hits home to them. what hits home to them. if a biden fracking hits home to my sons who are coal miners, then i'm not going there. -- hit something that has nothing to do with coal mines, they are not going with trump. people vote for what hits their pocketbooks and their life. host: all right, tina. michael binder? guest: individual self-interest is a powerful motivator. if you are somebody who is in the current fossil fuel industry, i'm not sure that joe biden is your choice. if you are somebody who is on the other cited that and isn't necessarily working in the industry or whose family isn't in the industry, and you are looking at the other environmental impacts of the current fossil fuel industry, maybe you have a different perspective. certainly, individual
self-interest matters a great deal, and it can be enough to motivate someone who has never participated before. i am a firm believer in the more people who get to the polls, the better. hopefully this turnout will continue to trend, and we can get more people like that off of thereabouts -- off of their butts into the voting booth. caller: a question about florida, and i know you touched on covid as a factor. i want to get specific. the fact that the president, in my opinion, betrayed the american people on the seriousness of the pandemic, and in fact if you look at what the governor is doing, it looks like a version of herd immunity, which in my area, seniors, it kind of scares them. the fact that the president wasn't honest, it was one of the biggest betrayals ever by a commander-in-chief.
he said he didn't want a panic. he wanted to panic people about caravans. how do you think the seniors will take that betrayal in florida? guest: if it is viewed as a betrayal, people are viewing it like you and there is certainly a lot of that -- there is a great number of seniors in diehardthat are republicans and trump supporters in nothing will change their minds. but there are some folks who have turned a little bit. all polling suggests that is the case. ultimately we will find out in a week or so once we get some of these turnout numbers and show how counties are voting. i certainly think that has impacted the senior vote, and i think very well could be a key decider in the state of florida. host: what is it like to live in the state of florida right now, with campaign ads, and talk
about the spending. guest: hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on campaign ads. if you live on florida -- if you live in florida and have not seen a campaign at, you are not watching tv or any streaming service. it is literally everywhere. as somebody who does this for a living, it is somewhat amusing. i get a kick out of some of the ads, not the ones on tv as much as the ones on the web. i have a real appreciation for them, but it is constant and overwhelming. host: patty is in north dakota. caller: good morning. i just had some comments. of course we are on the pandemic, and i just want to say there is no other president that did more. he stopped the access into the united states. made alle equipment,
here. they worked diligently, day and night, when this came in, and people are saying that the president lied to them. he didn't lie to them. could you imagine, if he went on pandemic?d people the there wouldn't be chaos? everybody would be calm? even if he said stay calm, they would be chaos -- there would be chaos. this is absolutely ridiculous. host: patty's thoughts in north dakota. our next caller, who supports the president is calling from palm beach, florida. caller: a long time listener, first time getting through after five years. i'm going to use this opportunity to speak of the
enthusiasm backing donald trump, and what is going on with the fake news media, nobody covering all of this information coming out about hunter biden's laptop and why they kept it secret since december 2019. the first thing president trump do when he gets reelected, and he will be reelected, and i hope christopher wray is listening to us. he's gone. of the concern is this, mainstream media, cnn, msnbc and all these other fake news stations, why they are not reporting on this i do not understand, but the most important thing of my comments is all of a sudden, obama coming out on behalf of joe biden, because he is scared. he knows that if trump gets tolected, the crop is going hit the fan -- the crap is going
to hit the fan because he was involved in all of this. i'm talking about when the president first said he would run for president. immediately, he was being attacked. andasn't even president yet they were already doing investigations on him. host: michael binder, when you do polling, do you ask about the hunter biden stories, and is that a vulnerability for the former vice president? guest: we haven't asked about it. a couple folks have. it really just mirrors people's already predisposed positions. if you're a trump supporter, you think it is the worst thing on the planet. if you're a biden supporter, you think it is a russian story. it hasn't moved the needle. i want to add one more thing about early voting in general. there is a lot of vote by mail ballots happening, and there is a real chance that a lot of
these ballots are not going to get counted because voters don't know how to sign it or they mail it in after the deadline and it is not going to count in florida, even if it is postmarked prior to november 3. there is a good chance it could be 100,000 or more votes that don't get counted this time around in florida. if they all go one way or the other, that's enough to potentially swing election in florida. i hope the margins are wide enough and there is enough enthusiasm on both sides, and enough from one side that this is a clear decisive win because i don't think anybody wants a repeat of 2000. host: michael binder, eight days out, care to make a production? guest: i think it is going to be -- make a prediction? guest: i think it is going to be really close. i think biden has it at plus one. i'm going to be judged for that for the next four years. host: michael binder, university
of north florida, director of their public opinion research >> c-span's washington journal. every day we are taking your calls live on the air of the news on the days and we discussed policy issues that impact you. coming up tuesday morning, we will look at this year's presidential campaign in the battleground state of wisconsin, with craig gilbert, washington bureau chief for the milwaukee journal sentinel and david cannon, political science professor at the university of wisconsin madison. watch c-span's washington journal, live at 7:00 eastern tuesday morning. be sure to join the discussion with your phone calls, facebook comments, text messages, and tweets. ♪ >> with eight days left until election day, november 3, when voters decide who will control
congress and occupy the white house next year. stay with c-span. watch campaign 2020 coverage every day, on c-span. a or on-demand at c-span.org. or listen on the c-span radio app. your place for an unfiltered view of politics. ♪ next, a discussion on the role of america in rebuilding the global economy after the covid-19 pandemic. the peterson jason furman, a former chair of the council of economic advisers under president obama. adam: hello, everyone. welcome back to the peterson institute for international economics. i am the president, adam pozen. it is my pleasure to be with four great colleagues. jason furman, karen dynan, douglas irwin, and nicholas lardy. we are here today as as part of the "rebuilding the global econ p