republican governor bria kemp and democratic challenger stacey abrams go head-to-head in the final debate for george's governor electn. and at 8:00 p.m., democratic senator pat murray and her republican challenger tiffany smiley tbeashington's next senator. watch on c-span, our free mobile video app, c-span now or c-span., -- c-span.org. >> only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here, or here, or here, or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. host: continuing our look at

pennsylvania the battleground state. the director of muhlenberg college institute of public opinion here to talk about what is going on. thank you for your time today. talk a little bit about the institute. your job in polling when it comes to election years. guest: i have been director of muhlenberg college institute of opinion for over 20 years. in allentown, pennsylvania, the eastern side of the state. we get a lot of public opinion polling. not in the commonwealth but some national survey to policy issues like energy and the environment. host: when it comes to elections, when you do poll, can you talk a little bit about your process, who you talk to, the amount of people you talk to? guest: over time it has evolved in terms of the process and methods that we use in polling pennsylvanians in election seasons. our standard methodology is still telephone.

primarily cell phone in terms of a contact point for individuals. our sampling is based off voter files as our frame. we use voter files to allow us to get a sense of the past voting records of the individuals we will be calling. background information demographically about them we can help in our modeling for the state. our sample size is around 400 to 500 based on our capabilities. there are various races throughout the state. this fall we are looking statewide with polls including ones we are seeing this week. locally here in the seventh congressional district, lehigh valley and the seventh congressional is one of the more focused on one of the more swing districts in the country right now. host: what is important for viewers to know about pennsylvania as they approach midterm elections?

guest: i was listening in on jonathan. he knows the state very well. it is a purple state in so many types of metrics. a lot of people look back historically, our presidential performance since the 80's and up till 2016 when donald trump won the state. it has been won by democrats. if you look down by senatorial races, congressional races, gubernatorial races, statehouse races, really competitive state which makes it from a polling perspective always challenging to look at. in any particular race it can be incredibly close grade we saw it in 2016 in the presidential race. we saw that again in 2020. i imagine there will be some races this year statewide and the congressional level. host: if you want to ask our guest questions, (202) 748-8001,

for republicans. (202) 748-8000, if you are a democrat. (202) 748-8002, independents. if you are a resident of pennsylvania, (202) 748-8003. how much has that changed and why do you think that is? guest: that was september. lots of poles have come out since. before we were going to be releasing in the next few days and early snapshot on our final numbers. it looks like that race has more stayed where we had it in september. other polls with our attorney general nominee, josh shapiro holding that double-digit lead over doug cipriano.

this race is in many ways one that the democrats have selected a candidate. josh shapiro has won the statewide office. figuring democratic politics, very managed candidate who knows how to raise funds. setting themselves up in this race good for republicans as probably the best path democrats could have offered. state senator doug maas triano won a contested republican primary to support pennsylvanians in that populace wing of the mega movement. -- the maga movement. she might not be the best candidate statewide even in the cycle for republicans to match a statewide general election audience. he has struggled. he has struggled in fundraising.

josh shapiro has been on the air almost since the beginning of the general election, even during the primaries in some way trying to get maas triano and building an image that he is too extreme for pennsylvania. it has worked. at least from polling. host: when it comes to the senate race, it was the democrat john fetterman to support awes and 42%. that has changed. talk about why you think this is a close race versus what you are seeing for the republican and the governor's race. guest: there is this disparity which leads us to the believe there is a significant portion of split ticket voters in the state. that seems to be the rule if you look at the polling of not ours but other polls.

candidate quality matters. john fetterman as many people would know is this unique brand in pennsylvania politics from his image, his appearance and the way he positions himself in contemporary democratic politics in pennsylvania. as a progressive with some twist. he has attracted lots of individuals to his campaign. he is an interesting brand. mamet awes, the republican nominee a national figure and tv dock there who rose to fame with oprah has his own unique brand. one of the big defining features from him, how you limit his ability in the state it how he relates to pennsylvania. went to medical school at the university of pennsylvania but spent his life elsewhere largely and recently in new jersey. that is a big hurdle for him to get over. but he has been successful in

many ways at keeping this race tight and even tightening it more past polls have shown earlier this month. by attacking federman and his brand. largely in the philadelphia market focused on making a case that john fetterman's weak on crime. and making fetterman to be less attractive to someone older, more moderate voters where his brand might not naturally -- where his brand might not be a natural fit. that is closed the race over september into october. last week the debate performance about a week ago certainly has raised more questions about the lieutenant government's ability to compete or to hold an office. as he recovers from a stroke that he had in may. this race is by almost every measure we see really competitive and different than

the governor's race. host: we hear from chris in pennsylvania on that line for pennsylvanians. good morning. you are on with our guest. go ahead. caller: good morning. things were better under president trump. food was lower, gas was lower. now the new president, all that stuff is dashed. you cannot get out of there for less than $100. you have to spend at least $60 to put gas in your car and it is trickling down and destroying the whole country. why can anybody see that? host: you talked about categories of interest for polls. the economy was top on that list, 22% showing that. guest: it is an enormous issue. as chris framed it, it is the

hope for republicans in this cycle that they look back two years ago, three years ago, wherever the reference point is and say maybe things were better economically. certainly on a metric like inflation. there is evidence of that. republicans, if you look at their messaging in pennsylvania and beyond are focused on that. they are increasingly focused on that issue. democrats on the defensive. we look at people who say that is their number one issue, inflation, republicans overwhelmingly are in front. it sets them up in many ways. given a positive historic cycle, you make gains in this year. it is one that republicans are counting on voters aligning with. host: inflation, on a 2%.

abortion and reproductive rights, 20%. is that a new future because of the roe decision or is that something that always popped up in bowling? -- popped up in polling? guest: it is relatively new. reproductive right -- pennsylvanians have reproductive rights as a view that is really important. you look at a small segment that is a top issue. in this cycle, that all changed. we went back and looked at our 2018 midterm polling where we asked the same question, same frame. it was a single digit number. 3% of pennsylvanians said it was their top issue in 2018. we were polling last month, it was over 20%. what happened in june with the supreme court elevated that issue significantly. in many ways, it might not

change the overall outcomes that we see in 2020 but changed significantly giving democrats a boost in terms of energy that has helped them. we look at the gubernatorial race in brazil asia and real differences in the two parties on this issue. host: from pennsylvania, cheryl, hello. caller: i am a senior citizen. my friends and i are blue dots in this red sea central pa. the last caller i would say, except for strategic oil reserve, our presidents do not control the oil markets. even the food markets. it is a complex global system.

she kept saying i won't do this and that. we believe that did he will cave to the intense republican right wing pressure. that is all. as far as maas triano, anyone with functional hearing and site could see he is psychologically unfit to serve public >> that is sharon from pennsylvania. you can address the other things. she used the term blue dot. how do you respond to that? >> that's a great analysis.

i have never used quite that term i might. she is right. where she lives in hanover township, i'm thinking she is mentioning one in south central pa, which is overwhelmingly a conservative area of the state. large republican advantage in registered voters which is part of the picture of pennsylvania. john has been talking about some of the state demographics and landscape. it is a fairly big state. and very diverse in terms of its regions, in terms of partisanship, with the southeast being largely democratic. allegheny county, pittsburgh being largely democratic. pockets in small urban areas like the valley, wyoming valley, harrisburg, they are democrats. but you have a lot of rural areas and townships across the state.

one of the country's largest rural populations in pennsylvania. we often think of it as an urban state with philadelphia and pittsburgh. that makes for those pockets that sharon described where it is overwhelmingly red. >> the opinion of president joe biden. at the time you took this it was a 43% approval rating. how much is president biden a part of this cycle? >> very much a part of the cycle. those numbers are consistent with his numbers here. looking a lot like his national numbers in the low to mid 40's. and we call them midterms for a reason. it is mid presidential terms that are being -- those elections are being held. we think of midterms as a referendum on the president's party. there is a basin historically the president's party has suffered -- a reason

historically the president's party has suffered. in american politics and our dna where we often move away from what we did a last election to some degree. the president's approval ratings added to the challenge for republicans. we have seen historically where presidents have had pretty solid approval ratings in their party still loses. but when they have weaker approval ratings the party tends to lose even more. those conditions are present in that this cycle and it is making a challenge for democrats, not only here in pennsylvania, but nationally. host: here is jeanette in pittsburgh. hello. caller: hello. thank you. first time caller. my question is what is the percentage of the black vote that would be counted for the state of pennsylvania? they talk about the economy,

what is the percentage from donald trump's administration on how the economy is good or bad? for me, it is better now than it was one trump was in office. host: ok. that is jeanette. >> it is a great question from jeanette about the black vote in the state. the black vote -- it depends on the election cycle, but it is somewhere between the high single digits to 10, 11, 12% depending on the race and cycle. and you might say that is a fairly lower level of the overall electorate, but it is a crucial electorate. kind of a racial ethnic group. it is by far the most democratic nationally in many races it will be 90% for democrats and that is

important statewide. black voters are throughout pennsylvania but heavy concentrations in philadelphia and pittsburgh in particular in philadelphia. and often, the share of the vote is important but the turnout among black voters in philadelphia is a driver and engine for democratic candidates statewide. of that is why you see a lot of attention for president obama in philadelphia. in philadelphia, president biden and other surrogates really focusing on philadelphia to try to make sure democratic turnout in this cycle that often includes a significant portion of black voters in philadelphia is high and competitive in the state. to make sure that once you get the overall picture in the state that that portion. host: u.s. people in september

of the likelihood of them voting in the midterm election. 84% said definitely, 64 percent said very likely to vote. do you see those types of midterm cycle numbers? >> are modeling and our polls, we start by looking at behaviors as we establish our sample to identify people that have voted a lot. in other recent elections, to do modeling. who is amongst that group. we then can go and ask specifically. what they think. of i comparison metrics -- comparison metrics, there are clear signs that turnout is going to be very high. a lot of voting going on in the state already and some other measures that we see in terms of voter enthusiasm. giving us the suggestion that this is going to be a higher end midterm election. we saw in 2018 that very much

the case in pennsylvania. where turnout approximated some past presidential elections. and i think 2022 is probably going to look more like 2018 that i year like 2014 with turnout being pretty high. host: christopher joining us, he is director for the institute of public opinion. in conversation, pennsylvania from wellsville, terry, you are on with our guest. caller: good morning, gentlemen, good morning america. i have a problem here. everybody is saying about how good the economy was when joe biden took over. which for some, the economy was not so bad. but there were also millions upon millions of people that were laid off and thousands upon thousands if not millions of people in lines for food.

so how was this good for people in america? that is my question. host: that was terry. >> we are bringing up the economic views of americans and how they feel about the economy. certainly there are measures of economic performance from gdp to unemployment to inflation that give a mixed bag, if you will, about where we are in this country, where we are in pennsylvania on these issues. but often, it really comes down to perception of where you are. which things you are elevating in which things are most salient to u.s. voters. this is where public opinion voting comes in and we look at how people are viewing the economy. there are significant concerns, there is doubt about that. americans are not pleased with the state of the economy. i think those inflationary pressures have really taken a toll on public sentiment.

even as we might point out, some pretty low unemployment levels nationally. but as economic measures look at wage increases in relation to the increases in prices, that gap i think is waiting on voters as we head toward election day. host: the new york times in a piece looking at the senate contest, their headline says fighting over the working class in pennsylvania that is picking up a lot of the exercises these days for both candidates. >> it is and that is a very large segment of the pennsylvania electorate depending on whether it is close to 40's or 50%. it's been a challenge for democrats historically. it's been a group that has done well during the trump years especially in 2016, republicans made incredible inroads and really dominated this important segment of the electorates and democrats have tried to be more

attentive to that. with some degree of success in the 2020 presidential election while joe biden did not win at that group by any means, he performed better than hillary clinton state that was ultimately decided by 80 plus thousand votes. that is crucial. to the president at that time, candidate biden, to do that. in this cycle you see great attention. there's questions. someone like john fetterman has built his brand in many ways on working-class issues. his very image that he tries to portray. can he run again and do better? better among that cohort than other democrats and if so 10 that him to victory? the question is an attempt to craft a brand that might be attractive in that area. might it push him away from the new base in some ways of

democratic power in pennsylvania and nationally. the higher educated, wealthier suburban folks in places like southeast pennsylvania. it's a really interesting dynamic and an interesting brand by every measure. host: from hawaii, this is suzanne, independent line. caller: could you give me a concise breakdown of corporate sponsorship of each candidate? and could you also elaborate for me on some of these disenfranchisement's of voters? >> yeah, they are two big questions. we could look at it. in terms of finance, first of all, the senate race, we will talk about the governor race in a second, which is a different picture. investment by corporations and

interest groups others in this race have been really significant. this race is going to set records in pennsylvania, but federman and all his have taken in a lot of money. they are getting an incredible amount of money coming in from outside groups running ads in the state. pennsylvania is a inexpensive money market. the philadelphia by itself -- vote of the market by itself is one of the most expensive in the state. so the candidates have been reaching out. if you look for example for comparison, federman has done much better with raising small amounts from governors across the state. taken some larger contributions. but relative, if you look at all of his contributions, he does pretty well among individual contributors at smaller levels. dr.'s has not done as well with

smaller amount donors and has relied more on outside groups and spending over all. large contributions tend to take his campaign with some of his own well. -- his own wealth. josh schapiro h fund raised extremely well, including from corporations, businesses in the state as a democratic candidate, that is not always the case. senator moss triano hanot. he has gotten coributions from small donors that have helped his coffers. but hisoffers are not very large. 'll just quickly take the last in terms of disenfranchisement in pennsylvania, it's an issue nationally. individuals that have been felons can vote after release

once they're not in jail. it has been an issue in a lot of places. host: do we know it we see results -- we know if we will see election results on election night? >> pennsylvania adopted mail in ballots a few years ago. we got during the pandemic a great share of voters in 2020 that way. local governments where not all that prepared. election offices are done in a county level and they got prepared to deal with the wave of ballots that has never been part of the landscape before. and there was a rule which was still in place that does not allow pre-canvassing. in other words, started to count the votes until election day, which slowed down the process and lead to those extra days. it is a close race. we might see a similar scenario. the counties have gotten better. the number of votes in the cycle i think will be pretty significant.

are they going to be at the same level that they were in 2020? that would give the county marketability to catch up. if the races are wide in terms of margins, they will call them on election night. but we have the chance given competitive races both statewide and congressionally that we will not have resolution on election night. host: from pennsylvania this is anne. hello. caller: i don't believe a man can serve two masters and dr. oz being a dual citizen of turkey really concerns me. turkey has been a friend and enemy in many places. a member of nato, but also they may have already purchased defense systems from russia. the pressure to awes to give of our secret information, i am very concerned it would be for any country that you are a tourist in that's not the united

states. thank you. >> it's an issue that has not been prominent in this election with dr. oz's citizenship in turkey. his american citizen, perfectly legal to run for office and the requirements to run. we have not seen that issue being highlighted very much and it is noted that he has business in turkey in the federman ads. but there has never been this challenge of his loyalty to the united states or relationship to turkey. i have not seen it play a prominent role in most debates which might be an interesting aspect of this race. host: here is kathleen in massachusetts, chestnut hill, independent line. caller: the caller before me stole my thunder.

i cannot believe that they have made a huge issue that he goes over to turkey and votes. you know, i don't have a problem with dual citizenship. over there in turkey, there are a couple of other things that he does the people don't take him seriously. his father was a physician. he is an entertainer. and he likes the spotlight. i know this sounds silly, but he was on it jimmy kimmel live eight years ago. he tells about his father being a physician and one time sticking a needle in his sister ahead -- sister's head. some of the silly stuff that he did. coming out with a wagon with 100

pounds of fat and it selling things. he is so commercial. but that one stole my thunder. the democrats come to a fight with a butter knife. they just do not know how to fight. i'm done. thank you. >> to that point would you describe these races as nasty to any extent? >> they have been hard-hitting, very negative and most of them are negative in nature. they are attacking aspects of each other. dr. oz is clearly trying to make federman to be extreme and a fraud, that he is not working class, that he came from a working family. and john fetterman hitting on that he is not from pennsylvania. he is a reach -- rich elite hollywood doctor. so they attack each other hard.

it is interesting as the last two colors noted that the attacks have never from john fetterman, he really tries to raise this question of turkish citizenship and his relationship to turkey. and i think the last caller is fair. would that have been the same the other way around? with the politics have been the same? with a have been targeted if he was a democratic candidate? i don't have an answer for that but it's an interesting question to look at. host: david on our line for those who live in pennsylvania. david is from pittsburgh. hello. caller: thank you for taking my call. first time caller. i think the turkish issue -- i have seen that issue raised to the media. not directly in the political ads. so that definitely is out there. following up with sharon from andover, the blue dot in the red sea, they had mentioned

harrisburg. i think reducing some of the margins in those areas is another possibility particularly for john fetterman. there is this perception that it is only pittsburgh and philadelphia that even where john is from, york county, the city of york is not -- scranton of course. if margins are not so wide in those areas, that is another positive for the john fetterman campaign. but i think you might see schapiro -- federman might bring down schapiro. i think schapiro could potentially -- this really old distaste for moss triano could motivate people and you could see schapiro carrying federman. thank you, thank you very much. host: thank you, david. >> david's points are good.

great analysis. pennsylvania, those midsized cities often get overlooked. allentown, york, scranton, my hometown. it -- they are important and the margins there and the turnout, they are still democratic enclaves as you will in areas that have become republican and in those areas we have seen republican gains. they are crucial. people are probably tired of me saying that a state like pennsylvania, margins matter. all these little things add up when it is that close in the senate race, given the polling, we are going to see those situations moving forward. host: we talked to the previous guest about president biden expected to visit the state. he visited last week. we are going to see president trump visit later this week. to those have any swaying power among pennsylvanians? or are they