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stories. this into c-span any time, and just tell your smart speaker to play c-span radio. c-span, powered by cable. >> political analysts including david, former campaign manager for president obama and rob jesmer, executive director of the republican senatorial committee discussed the 2020 two midterm election results and what they mean for democrats and republicans. welcome to this event. i am vice president for communications and strategy at the brennan center. i am going to turn you over to our moderator sue chan, editor of texas tribute. we have a standout group of panelists who we lured away from their lineup of television appearances. they will spend the next hour with us to answer your questions and hours.

before we get started, a few notes. in addition to being broadcast on our platform, we are excited to announce this is aaron could live on c-span channel one and c-span radio. if this is your first time, the brennan center for justice is nonpartisan law and justice -- institute to repair, revitalize and defend our systems of democracy. if you have a question you would like to ask. ask them at -- via youtube and facebook chat. civility is important to all of us at the pregnant center. those who opposed rude languages will be removed. will be alive tweeting --. please follow the conversation at brennan center live. we provide life close captioning. without further ado, sewall the floor is yours. >> thank you for joining us. sewell: the 2022 midterms have been built at the most

consequential decades. the mixed verdict the nation delivered shows how profound and enduring some of the divisions are. americans took so the polls to vote on inflation, voting rights , immigration, crime, abortion and democracy itself. what we do not have a full picture of the results. so far, they have been eye-opening. today we have three experts are what has not unfolded, or wet races and measures were still -- we're still waiting for and what the next steps for both parties b. this fantastic panel from -- comprises david plouffe and architect at present obama's campaigns and a leader in the field in technology and philanthropy. rob jesmer a manager at fp1 strategies who is a leading strategist for republican national committee and party campaign committees for health and senate. and elise jordon, msnbc and nbc

political and noticed and writer who served the state department and national security council during george w. bush. let's get started. and david, how did the democrats end up doing better than expected? david: i do not think we know. we will unpack that. i want to thank lisa and the brennan center for this. it is some issues so fundamental to our democracy. i think a part of what happened was during the summer post-dobbs decision. democrats were posting big leads in polls. over september and october they shrank because republicans and republican leaning independents came home to candidates. . it was a view we have seen the last few elections polls be off. and to they underestimate republican strength.

they said the outcome would be worse in the polls. the voters have the last word. we should be cautious about polls. clearly turn out amongst young people were stronger than predicted. that was a huge part of their success. two, candidate quality matters. particularly the senate. republicans had deficient candidates. that comes to bite you. three, i think the party did a good job or they needed to on issues like abortion and democracy. it really talking about that and making the stakes as large as possible. it is good to drive turnout. i think the house races, which get a lot less attention. some democratic house incumbents. particularly that class 18 held on and one close races that strategist thought might be gone. there is a lot to unpack. polls can be way off in terms of demographic bricktown. over the next month, and it does

take months. we will take a look at real load and what patterns there were. obviously an unexpected outcome. we still do not know what will happen in the senate. there is a chance that with the votes that had come back in and clark and washout will overtake her opponent. all eyes moves to georgia on december 6. which will be a runoff for senate control. a lot of ingredients went in. another thing i say. donald trump being such a big part of the campaign, going out on the campaign trail. the virginia governor's race of 2020 one. the youngkin candidate cap trump out. i think that was a factor. his approval ratings last night was 37%. clearly a drug to a lot of swing voters. -- drag to a lot of swing voters. >> midterms are seen on a referendum. yesterday it might be the best night for first-time president

since 2002. when president bush and republicans gained seats. what you think the white house will be taking away from yesterday's results? >> i think it is a reminder that you cannot be captive to the past. if the exit polls are directional. democrats one voters who disapprove of joe biden's performance. we have not seen that. we better understand -- at least in 18 and 22. i hope it is an american citizen we are getting's swamp turnout. which was not the case for a hundred years. there are things we put into the playbook about how we do elections that is off. use i've relief as it relates to democracy. it is not on sound footing, but i think we took a big step forward.

i think it is possible republicans when the house. and when the senate. so joe biden could be facing unified republican control in the house and senate. we will have to see if those votes are counted. i think we over learned a little bit the history of approval. there were big things going on. inflation. a lot of voters never doubt with inflation younger. yet democracy at risk. you have abortions. he had paid issues. this was a big election. i think voters behave differently than we might be accustomed. sewell: we have been hearing about a red wave or tsunami coming from -- four months. at the party fall short of that objective? rob: i think if you asked six weeks ago and did this is the party we will -- election would have. i think expectations were growing and people were getting a little over skeet.

there was -- generally speaking. there was a decoupling between voters views of president biden and how they voted. i said going back in 2002. the incumbent president had a 40% approval rating would have taken a shellacking in the polls. that did not happen. that is the first time it did not happen. the second piece is i think there was president trump was a factor in this last couple days. which is normal the previous president is not as big of a factor as to he was. i think they were unusual things that happen. to david's point i think we will have 228 to 30 members of house. we will be in control. i think the senate. i sense we will hold onto nevada and heading to a georgia runoff.

we will see -- see what happens. i think it was disappointing. sewell: rob, a republicans made important gains from florida to newark. where did the party meet orcs -- exceed expectations? where did it fall short? rob: i do not think we should gloss over florida. i think it was an incredible success. everyone knows miami-dade would be one convincingly. which is a guide -- gigantic deal. i think you so governor had a decisive victory. we won a lot. it was an incredible showing by desantis. i think we will -- it will be helpful. texas is working. for 15 years. and the democrats talk about how they will make progress. they continued to have no luck.

i think new york was interesting for other reasons. generally speaking, those are the highlights. a lot of places we underperformed. i think we have to think the next couple months to analyze what happened and how we got to this. there's probably a few notional understanding what happened. i think we need to do focus grouping and figure it out. sewell: elyse, you wrote on twitter that what a night for democrats. 57% of americans disapprove of biting, crime is rising. all that gets canceled out when republicans act like lunatics and scare americans. who vote to preserve basic stability and democracy. how does allow time -- let's nights outcome affect president trump in the future? elise: i think president trump is a huge force to be reckoned with.

we saw what a draghi was. there were at least five states that if they had decent candidates, nine trump candidates. they could except the states. they would've won the majority. it should have been an for republicans. over the past month in pennsylvania, we went for morning show in focus groups. everyone across the electorate did not matter how you were voting just really fed up with the economy, inflation and how it is impacting their lives. feeling like crime is on the rise and it was not necessarily being grappled with by democratic leadership. and there were not necessarily excited about joe biden. or kamala harris waiting in the wings. enthusiasm was not there. but then they would say i have got to vote because it is existential.

the stakes are way higher than just my day-to-day needs. this is about preserving american democracy. you say people at the end of the day did turn out. if they might've been paying to vote for the candidates. unlike in 20 with plenty of voters took a gamble on donald trump. people did not want to take a gamble on candidates who have extreme views on abortion. they were falling into the typical trump playbook. >> -- let's focus on democracy argument. there were many commentators became the conventional wisdom that president -- president biden and obama emphasizing democracy was a lofty abstracting important argument. not nearly as day-to-day resonate with such pocketbook issues as inflation.

perhaps oncoming recession. did democracy argument end up caring more weight than you expected? elise: i do not think it carried any. i think it was a thread when coupled with abortion rights being challenged, and to that of people. with the election denial, and the general chaos that certain candidates were seen as ushering in. it was important, but this is not an easy election to say one issue. there is a host of issues that -- when combined over the course of time. in the vote happened right after dobbs. they would've swept. it had even a larger margin. if that was not cited as a single issue -- the single issue they were vote on when talking to women swing voters.

it coupled with the other insanity. in they decided to go ahead and vote emma craddick judging by the results. -- democratic. sewell: what are the -- do democrats go from here? the parties unified. most americans and democrats do not wish for president biden to run again. with probably a minority in the house and senate. where do the democrats go forward to? >> we have a democratic president and a good night and statehouses at the legislative flow valves and gubernatorial. there actually govern. sometimes we forget that. the most important things to do a good job and follow. i think when you think about politics, first about joe biden. the only two people that matter are jill and joe biden.

nobody makes a personal decision whether he wants to spend another four years seeking the white house and serving as president. if he does run. he still may have a primary. i think last that makes it less likely. just as i think if donald trump decides through -- to run it he will have a serious primary. we do not know the first thing about what happened. i agree with rob. for democrats, how do you continue to maximize your support among suburban voters, college-educated both men and women? if the exit polls are accurate, republicans got almost 40% of the hispanic vote. which is a unique situation. democrats you would like to be back into the mid 60's. young turn out. we saw in 2018 and 2020 and again this time. they played the biggest role in

saving democracy or putting us on that road. what do you do to keep those voters engaged? and candidate quality clearly matters from president down. the infrastructure. there are so much money spent in politics. most senate races a million dollars. what is not spent on the progressive side as much. the infrastructure money. year-round voter registration. year-round meal organizing and message. you're telling stories what you're trying to get done. we tend to rely on the time before the election because republicans have breitbart and sinclair. they have much more infrastructure. to deliver message both positive and negative messages about the democrats. there is a lot to do. florida, ohio, iowa, texas. these are states if you have any hope of putting it back in a

play at state ride will not happen overnight. it will take time. it is important for democrats did that are than most people thought and a lot of democrats. what you cannot do an election where your pleased or not depressed by is not take a hard look at areas we can improve. in -- even georgia warnock and walker is not do the same thing they did. how can we improve our performance to win that? a lot of analysis has to happen. i think we are reminded time and time again. in every swing house district and every swing gubernatorial and senate race in battleground state. and everyone there were more conservatives than liberals. conservatives to get more reliable turnout. we are further away from the 50 yard line in every race that matters. we got to get the kind of turnout needed it is essential.

you have to win the moderate vote. again if exit polls are to be believed, democrats want independence. that surprised a lot of people. that is what we have to do. we have messages and policy that speak to the middle. they are concerned, their aspiration. use language people can understand. if they will sound self-serving. former president obama was effective talking about policies. he was talking about it in a way accessible. there is a lot to learn. i think -- think of anything, we escaped the worst last night. they're places like michigan, pennsylvania at that are quite promising, flipping hit statehouses. and winning gubernatorial races. let's not underestimate the amount of work we have to do. to have the kind of 24. not just the pardon needs, but the country. sewell: what i would like to do

is drill down into the senate, gubernatorial and house races a bit. just to get a bit of granularity and benefit from expertise with understanding the political now. start with david. let's start with the senate. david, michael bennett and colorado, maggie in new hampshire, and john fetterman and pennsylvania. also succeeded or survived. what made them successful? rob: let's look at 2020. remember the conversation before that election? well president biden when texas or florida? the same thing happened here. there was a sense they could win colorado. maybe new hampshire or washington state. none of that. obviously hassan and bennett ran. the federman race strategically could not of been more important. it was the one to quite that

democrats had the best opportunity. wisconsin ended up being close. which is a take away. that makes it harder for republicans. they have to win two of arizona, june -- georgia and nevada. i think federman was a strong candidate. he showed the ability and county after county improve on president biden's margin. he was still losing counties by 40 or 50 points. what matters is getting the margin. he still showed ability, despite showing strength in rural and urban areas to do well in the suburbs and generate the turnout you need out of philadelphia. i think there was so much navelgazing up about his debate performance. almost everybody has someone in their family struggling with health. i do not think he was going to be graded on lake figures getting. indeed he landed the closing statement perfectly. i think that was better than

people thought. i think that was quito. pennsylvania was key. democrats are on the precipice. i do not think we know what will happen in nevada. i talk to people who think it could be within 100 votes counted. what democrats have to do is while we are eagerly watching in arizona, the runoff is in front of you georgia. you have less than 30 days to put together a winning campaign. >> i want you to give your analysis. on the republican side ron johnson survived in wisconsin defeating mandela. it ted budd in north carolina a race democrats hope to make close. he won that seat. an open seat vacated. j.d. vance in ohio has brushed aside tim ryan. what was the key to their successes and other republican senate candidates? david: >> i think there

republican states that would take a lot for us to lose those places. i think north carolina, the way we were thinking about colorado or stuff like that is real reach in the environment. it had to be credible for democrats to win. i think it is always can win. i want to go back a little bit to what david talked about. i do not think -- i do not think of democracies on the ballot. i think it is fine. we litigated about what happened. we did previously. you need to look at canada by canada. whether or not you like dr. oz. this is a guy who had a very wealthy and successful guide having a time relating to people. some people who are struggling. if you lived in new jersey -- he lived in new jersey his life. go to, great football career.

i think he had some issues spent his time in texas. this is not stuff where i think we were talking about democracy or election tonight. i think it was about individual candidates who have a hard time in the general election focusing on how to win the election. there were a lot of people who president trump-endorsed 21. so to me, this does get down to whether or not you have to be a good candidate. he had to run a good campaign. a few places we did not do that. we had to win them back. we had to win it back. we should have done better in those places. i think he did not because our candidates were the issue. that was the problem. i do not think with democracy or january 6. i think it was inability to keep the focus on president biden. look.

i hope president biden runs for reelection. my guess is he will do what a lot of people do which will misread the results and believe what he wants to believe. i do not think you will be very -- a very strong candidate and a couple years. i cannot imagine if you take -- took a poll of democrat operatives or members of congress who want president biden. there is a whole sort of issue that come down the road for the democrats as well as republicans. sewell: what is your assessment of the senate and particular the ongoing races in arizona, nevada and georgia? elise: looks like mark kelly will pull it out in arizona. cortez and nevada. if i had to bet. if i will bet. looking? i'm to come down to georgia. i wonder how much that race will

mirror the special election in 2017 when -- with doug jones we see republican turnout to present because of canada quality that rose was talking about. we were in georgia back in may. it was surprising how there were republicans who for the abortion -- abortion scandals pot appeared herschel walker paid for so many abortions and children he did not acknowledge. republicans had serious questions. few today, a lot of those voters who voted for brian kemp and gave him incumbent push back into office. they did not come out for herschel walker. i think it is all going to come down to georgia. i think to rob's point about democracy was not on the ballot.

what i would say is of the candidate who fared really poorly, they were pretty trump-endorsed. dr. oz was bumped into the nomination because of trump nomination. david mccormick probably would've swept away. then you have blake masters. where did he appear and republican aside from being peter teal guy. that got him there. herschel walker. mitch mcconnell what per -- prefer to have someone else that. a trump influence is -- it did not do the party leadership any favors. sewell: peter tail -- teal is one for two. let's focus on the governor races. republicans easily one and kept power in texas and florida. texas where i am, i would know better or work one fewer

counties then democrats one the last five federal elections. hundred million dollars went to that campaign. compared to a more obscure and not well-funded democrat four years ago. yet, better looks too lost by around 10 points. georgia, brian kemp once again defeated stacey abrams. the governors race in arizona, nevada and oregon are too close to call. democrats held onto governors mansion in kansas, maine, michigan, new york, new mexico and wisconsin. rob: on the governors races did your party for sure? rob: i would say it was a push. what i think is the governor is a serious job. you can run for congress and figured.

you can sort of fake it as a senator. you cannot fake as governor. you are an executive the state and there is a lot of -- a policy that impacts you have on the governing. it matters to people in the way that does not matter running in the legislative branch. i think what you saw is good candidates and governors matches republican voters but center voters. esau or new york were short. esau prosecution of the policy there -- eq saul prosecution of the policy that allowed for over performance of republicans on policies and governing democratic incumbents. it would've been better to win wisconsin. kansas. i wish we would've one. i think it was kind of a push. sewell: national democrats fall in love with certain candidates. i think stacey abrams is one. enter or work and >> could those hundreds of

millions of dollars spent? -- could they have been better spent. >> stacy abrams because she did not win her race. she's a big part of that. that ups the saudis he did not get the results you want, but if you look at these performances -- stacey abrams did not get the results she wanted, but if you look at those performances come

her merit -- her margin was narrow enough that republicans. winning wisconsin, winning michigan, winning pennsylvania. i think from a democracy standpoint i think is important. this is why we think about the lame-duck coming up. the top of the list is the account act. it leader mcconnell and republican support which would not completely guarantee presidential elections but would take a big step forward. you could feel good that the elections are going to be prosecuted legally in wisconsin. arizona and nevada will have to see. i think the senate hopefully will act and biden will sign that important piece of legislation. >> any legislation the democrats

could pass while they still hold the house? >> some must do stuff. we will see. it did not happen in the normal course of business so i would not assess those options quite high. the other question, while they still have the house and senate majority to basically take care of the debt ceiling. if not, with this narrow house majority, the united states and the economy is standing over the abyss. to see how the narrow house majority, we don't want to dance with the devil. i'm very concerned about that. the electoral counts act.

let's get that done. if there is a way the debt ceiling, that would be great. this would be booming for the country in the first quarter of next year. >> tells about the debt ceiling and kevin mccarthy. if he does succeed, how will he actually hold the caucus together? >> i think he's likely to be the next speaker. we are going to have a debt ceiling. it's not going to go very well. i think there will be a shutdown and i think we will have to make a deal with democrats, a deal that's worse than what is constructed. we've done this the 10 top -- moved on this 10 times the last 12 years.

i think, you know, winning elections is easier than governing. >> i most think to that point that it's conditioning, from an electoral 2024 point of view. i think people are used to this and it will work itself out. >> one more question. the last two house speakers, you know became speakers with big ideas, big ambitions. they ended up with managing the house majority, public house majority. does mccarthy have a chance of

succeeding where they may not have? >> i think it's going to play out like i just said. i'm not a great fan of speaker pelosi's policies. she's very good at it. my guess is the democrats when there is -- she is a unique political figure. i just think growing pains while we are in the majority. >> now we are going to move over to the best part. audience questions. what does this election mean for the movement? >> i think we see that there is not much of a tolerance among the big lives movement. 35% is always going to stick with donald trump no matter

what. they are sick of looking backwards and relitigating what happened in 2020 even if they didn't like trump and they wanted trump to win reelection. a lot of alexion did not make it past the finish line. republicans survived and a republican that wouldn't concede to chumps demands to overturn the results. there will be one of my takeaways is that it did not really deemed to be much of a plus. really going up against her opponent who didn't even debate her and seemed to be somewhat missing in action.

says a lot for the same power of that theory. >> you seem less convinced that >> -- convinced that -- i think there are different variations, but the fact of the matter is secretary clinton said the president trump was illegitimate. we go back to when george bush was elected. i think what happens is there are a lot of americans and they say, and they have trouble understanding most people don't relate to them at all. to be clear, trump lost the election. i think the way that he talked about it was totally ridiculous. there is a thing where he gets

scrutiny that no one does. i love my friend david, but when he said we don't have fox news and other things, i have hollywood. i have new york times. i think most people think all those institutions and that i'm out -- i'm totally against them. i think there's going to be, i think the republican party is going to have a robust primary. i think 30% of the vote is hard-core trump. i'm not counting trump out. that would be not smart based on his record before. there is going to be a hugely contested domination and i think it's wide open. how did -- >> how to gerrymandering impact

the election. >> new york, there was more favorable past that were rejected by a local court. that's one of the reasons republicans are going to have such strong performance. in florida come tomorrow election -- recollection, ron desantis came and said no. you are not republican enough. ron desantis has a lot -- has a story to tell out of this election. he did very well with a lot of elements in terms of hispanic, cubans and venezuelans as well. i think it was, the most important thing. a lot can change in politics,

but is it centering now the house of representatives will remain quite competitive. the democrats if they fall short will have a chance to win it in 2024. that is a little bit unusual. it was only 2018 the first election after trump. the second after that was -- republicans were almost insulated. so that i think is important. there are some states that democrats get huge advantages and redistricting. >> it would -- i think that makes the house competitive for what should be the rest of the decade. >> can you unpack how abortions rights played out in both red

and blue states. >> in pennsylvania, it made a big difference in that final debate where you had so many undecideds wanting to see if he could perform after his stroke and going through such medical challenges. you have dr. oz have a slip of the tongan say abortion should be, the decision should be made by women and so then you imagine women going and asking for an abortion. you really that -- as week he's been on pretty good behavior the last month, stayed in the background of the campaign. look at what happened. the democrats government -- governor one again then in kentucky you had abortion was rejected.

you had pretty much in all of the ballot about abortions. they don't want to strictly limit abortions. >> that's really helpful. thank you. the next question, what would to the january 6 committee and its findings if the gop takes control of the house. >> my assumption, and then the new congress starts. >> do you think a criminal referral will go anywhere? >> i don't have any idea. i think that it would be best for the country if we moved on from this.

crimes are committed. people need to be held accountable. is not going to be especially well received. -- it is not going to be especially well received. we will see what happens. we will see if they indict president trump. as far as congressional acts, they will be over in the next couple of weeks. >> i agree with rob. i think it is nearing its conclusion. i don't want to speculate, but it seems to me moving from the realm of politics and airing the history which is important to

the country to know what happened. conspiracy theories that emerged in the aftermath to know that the first draft was history. they did that and it's going to move into the legal realm. >> based on the election yesterday, are there any democrats emerging as front runners for 2024? >> that's dangerous territory. yeah, i think he may have, he will be a democratic nominee. if he chooses not to run, i think if you look around the country, gretchen whitmer. tim ryan who fell short. mark kelly, wedo -- what an amazing biography he has. if you take a more expansive

view, obviously if joe biden does not run vice president kamala harris would be a front minor. my guess is it will be a bigger feel. i think what people learn is generally people wait too long to run. if you have a few that you think would be, by the way i think that could be important. being a good president mazars s matters. if you think -- being a good president matters. i will wait and run eight years from now. i think you're going to see a lot of people run. i think will be a fascinating race. i think there is a great democratic town. a lot of them will decide that it's not for them.

listen, you gotta remember ralph talked about the job of the executive. the way people think about those jobs, mayor, governor or president. your apologies are important but the strength of your leadership, it's really important. the thing that i say about presidential campaigns is history shows us, the -- there's no president. you get thrown into the arena and even if you had prior races in your state, you may not have it at this moment. so that is what is so critically important is who has what voters are looking for at that particular moment. if it is like a searing part a lot to coal exam that candidates go through, and mostly below

come out of it as strong as when they would into it, but i think if joe biden does not run, i assume we will have a pretty robust primary. that's my sense. >> i want to stay on this subject for a minute. from the republican side, correct me if i'm wrong, >> pardon? >> if he doesn't run, who do you pick from the democratic side, who would you were rather be up against and who do you think would actually make it? >> democratic nominations are not my expertise, but i would have a very difficult time, for

right now i find it to be incredible to think that she would lose that nomination, but we will see what happens. i think we will see what happens in a few months. on the republican side, clearly thought this for a year and a half. i totally agree with what david said. president obama who got in, and when he did that, that sort of changed paradigm of what that's about the way the people think about this. when is your time in the sun, you better go. i think i will open the door for a lot of others to dip your toe in the water as well. so we could end up having which i think a lot of people would

say helps president trump. i think these things, by the time iowa is over, it comes down to three or four person race. in that scenario, certainly president trump wins. >> your assessment of the field starting with republicans. >> i differ in that i still think that trump is pretty strong. he's not legally unable to run he's not physically because of health because it's going to take a while to get to the two were three-person playing field and a lot of damage can be done to that point. you look at how many republicans are going to run that tech --

ted crew -- ted cruz. there are others who would jump in and so i think that the numbers would give donald trump a certain advantage. also this not care about the republican party at all. he is only all about himself. he just really continues to inflict more damage. we see how he would rather file and -- i think a lot of damage and a lot of blood is going to be shed however this goes. it's still a long time to go. it 16 started early.

it starts pretty early, but i'm not, i think it could be his moment peeking might be premature. >> at his will to make sure we're clear. i believe that president trump is the favorite, that goes without saying. i think two years ago he is a nominal favorite. i think is just like anything else we talked about. you have to run a real campaign. you've got to be able to do the job and want the job. you look at his senate races where he was endorsing candidates. herschel walker served in a different category.

canada -- different category. help them get over the hump, but this was not like he was waiting 625, 70 5% of the vote. i think his hard vote is between like i said 30 to 35% of the vote, may be 25 on a bad day, 45 on a good day. i think there is room to make a case. it is a rough-and-tumble process in the way -- anyway and it will be really rough-and-tumble against president trump. but i think he is the key to be defeated. >> do you think president biden's decision on running again rests on president trump's decision in a sense? biden said he was running to save the soul of america. clearly he wanted to get president trump out of office. if for whatever reason trump is not able or decides not to run again, does that give biden an

out to transition to the next generation? >> i think trump announcing he is running will be a very personal decision between joe and jill biden. they have grandkids, he's very close to his family. he would be in his 80's in his second term. i think he needs to decide if this is how he wants to spend that phase of his life. i think these tend to be really personal, lonely decisions. you have advisories that hear about this and that, whether to run again. i do think it is a decision that he should make earlier rather than later so that if he does run that is clear and they can begin going on a campaign to hold onto the white house and if he does not run it is important to basically give everybody else the chance to get in and see what they have got. and see if that is what democratic primary voters are looking for. i would say the same about trump. i don't think he's going to care about that.

i think he will decide, maybe he won't next week, he will keep us in suspense for months. i will say this. in 2008, which is ancient history, hillary clinton was a strong front-runner back then. and she was in the 40's. polling higher than trump is right now. but we saw, we assumed she would win but there was -- if we could become the one alternative, that is true with trump. rob said he will bring the house down. the most important thing if you are ron desantis or anybody else in my opinion is not your set of policies, not your announcement speech, or senior staff. it is can you stay in the ring with the bulls? because if you can't, trump will have his way with you. it does not mean you need to run his kind of race. but will you take the poll and

deflect and throw it? a lot of people will say i think trump was a great president, he can't win. maybe because the media is unfair, maybe because he's under investigation but he think there's a sharper message which is 2018 was a bad midterm for the republican party. 2020 he lost to biden of all people. if you are a republican that seems outrageous. and here he was the central backer. there is an argument where you can still give trump a credit for a bunch of stuff. if you are a republican, the most important thing is to win the white house and i don't think he can do it. but if you are not willing to be in the ring with someone who shares this, it is basically my fighting in a phone booth. you should run as far from the presidential race as you can. >> president trump now, in the third federal election he has lost, and there are a lot of

people who ascribe to him almost a mystical genius about eventually pulling things out. it sounds like all three of you are not necessarily convinced he can do it again. >> i don't know about the genius cap. but i think if you had it with biden it will be a tossup race. god help us for a lot of reasons. but i think he is formidable but beatable. >> ok. >> i don't think he's a genius. >> that's right. one question i would look all of you to address, why are the poll so often wrong? were they wrong? >> i don't think they were wrong. it was with in margin of error pretty much. i don't really understand.

there are some holes that are terrible because they are bad pollsters and to stay away from those. but overall, you can't quibble with it being plus or minus five in pre-much all of the races we are tracking closely. >> i generally agree with that. there needs be more analysis. one thing i'm interested in is that generally speaking, in elections like this, if they are close, the other side is the break for the party. you look at the survey and i think it is part of the analysis that people are doing for the election. republicans would win. it seems as though this did not happen. so while that is not really a polling issue, it is a change order behavior issue relative to last several midterm elections. but i think it is too early to see and to figure out exactly

what happened. it seems like >> know we own mental home and you did well in one to an advantage frick is reporting there way that didn't happen a lot about why but i think it was just no well again back in 20 just bite my trite nightly statement was cognition might attend one budget people writing overly cautious we good to remind every election and that he jubail question first you me out of it right party will congress haveycharliee4" it back i think i$7. you know control of the less stable deadly mouse then you know that it really

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