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tv   Quadriga - Trade War Trump against the World  Deutsche Welle  March 16, 2018 9:30am-10:00am CET

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listening to your cheers lord great people all through my gender exciting journey to the world speaking. hero's story. and the winter starting march twenty first w. l o n welcome to quadriga until a couple of weeks ago it looked like the trumpet ministrations protectionist bark might be worse than it's but but that appears to have changed with the signature by president trump of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum the order sparked an outcry from key allies and trading partners some are threatening retaliation others lobbying for exceptions critics say the move could launch
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a tit for tat spiral with drastic consequences for growth and jobs trump says he's simply fixing a broken system to ensure that trade is fair. trade war trump against the world that's our title today and it's a pleasure to welcome our guests hammon is a business editor for the daily newspaper the tatts which is based in berlin and she says there will be a limited to trade war as an economic superpower u.s. can unfortunately afford trade wars and is a business editor here at he says president trump doesn't understand the complexity of trade and global markets and it's a pleasure to welcome back to the program he is editor in chief of how. he says trump is behaving like a preschool bully in the sandbox for the sake of the sandbox europe must not rise to his propagation. and then let me start by asking you steel
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dumping especially by china is a perennial topic in trade discussions not only for the u.s. and not only for this administration this is also hardly the first time that the us has posed protective tariffs so why is this time necessarily any different or any worse you're right it's a bit of a classic in general trade policy in american trade policy in particular other presidents have done it. and also we know from studies by the way that it's almost always backfires economically because america tends to the american economy suffers from still cherubs imposed on others is it different this time or not that remains to be seen i still hope it blows over because of course you all have noticed adult trump is a man of bluster that has his bark as you said he sometimes bigger than his bite and he probably wants to make a rhetorical
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a big show to get some concession that will let him call themselves and hopefully retreat before it goes into a full blown trade war of the sorts of smooth. hollies started in the one nine hundred thirty s. i hope we can avoid that and that's exactly why i think i think we should the european union should not overreact already to this first round of his national security tears for a follow up question in terms of how we can expect trump to bark and bite in future does the dismissal of rex tillerson breaking news this week of course does that encourage you to be optimistic about the likelihood that trump would back down or rather let's see if we're on the balance enough that all the signals are of course towards pessimism at the moment i mean everyone's read fire and theory and this white houses can complete chaos but in general the hardest theory being a book about the insider yelling is in the white house actually so steve bannon was
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pushed out and is now touring europe to rally nationalists and populists but of course more recently again i think the hardliners gary cohn left in protest in part over these trade tariffs and rex tillerson has pushed out the moderates the more reasonable people seem to be leaving in a hurry and that is a bad sign thank you lors holder one thing that definitely is different this time around is that the administration looking to impose these tariffs is led by a president who has openly questioned the rule based order of international trade namely the world trade organization the w.t. oh so does that give us reason to worry that this tactic could wind up bringing down the whole system i think we should absolutely be worried and it has to do with what we just discussed with the moderates leaving we have a president now who is impulsive who is likely to go to extremes rather than the mainstream and to who i don't think only barks i think he can by two he's impulsive
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and what worries me personally most is that he doesn't look at the big picture he acts on impulses on little deep. hales he started with the steel tariffs because it sounded good it sounded good to the steel companies of course he is then immediately heard back from other corporations from the automotive industry for example they have a huge problem with it because of course they are buyers of steel and aluminum and for them prices are going to go up a soul in the next step he immediately started all right i gonna do something for you going to and we're gonna put tariffs on mercedes benz and b.m.w. this is impulsive behavior and in a way is childish behavior this is not looking at the big picture if you look at trade if we just want to look at trade between the e.u. and the u.s. for example there are thousands of products if look at thousands of product categories and it's a very tricky and complicated balance and if you want to make any changes to that
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it is obviously the wrong way to just change one topic here pick another one there . have been just pushing a bit are looking at that big picture trump says that this rule based system the w t o often works to the advantage of those who don't play by the rules namely very often china is there something to that argument and to the idea that free trade is by no means always fair trade well it is packed with the w t o has been dead for he is decades and that's the reason why they have been so much to stand to get bit by natural almost multilateral trade treaties going like for example the. p.-p. transpacific trade agreement. yes didn't sign on to tip which was the trade agreement between the united states and europe so that was already the reaction to
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the time of the w t o doesn't work and of close to going back to your question it is undoubtedly in fact the china does not comply to the rules. in the sense that they always pain stops that these two goods that they want to export on the grand scale for example steel that is always cheap steel all solar panels but that's something that the united states as well as the you have reacted to for example is already tariffs on solar panels coming from china it is not the case that either you peons are the united states do not react and what is different now is that is not targeting specifically china saying you are paying subsidies and now for that reason is specific to every if is going to be higher than before because up to now we already ready have forty one different tariffs for the steel industry in the united states is not the first steel tariff to be imposed the difference is that
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now trump just says well we have a trade deficit which is true and now i have to react on that and i have to crush all rules that and i am acting on my own will and so that is different it's not it's not a trade as always. contentious and. that's not a new. steel is certainly not a new topic for donald trump he signed his tariff order in the presence of steel workers wearing hard hats old industry regions that produce steel are in fact amongst those that put him in the white house those are areas where he won big in two thousand and sixteen and so perhaps it is no surprise that he has their interests at heart. the state of pennsylvania used to be one of the main steel producing centers in the united states but a number of steel plants here have been forced to close thousands of workers have lost their jobs. china has been selling steel on the international market at cut
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rate prices in two thousand the us europe and china produced half of all the world's steel now trying to produces half the world's steel all by itself. president trump has promised to revitalize the u.s. steel industry and create new jobs that's why he's ordered tariffs on foreign steel imports. today i'm defending america's national security. by placing tariffs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum twenty five percent on steel and ten percent on aluminum the u.s. is trying to put a stop to cheap imports of these products. but will these tariffs actually help the american steel industry to recover. let me go back to. pick up on your opening statement you say that the u.s.
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can afford a trade war and trump has tweeted more or less the same saying trade wars can be i think beautiful and easily won. can the u.s. really afford it aren't there far more jobs as lars said that depend on using cheap steel then there are steel production jobs yes that's true but if you just look at the numbers you can see that the united states a constant on itself they have you have. to just put it differently important export of goods just seven to eleven percent of the g.d.p. so that is. very very little compared to other countries for example in germany expos fifty percent of the g.d.p. in the united states is only seven percent so you can see that just because the united states is just such in the norms market with three hundred twenty million customers mostly producing everything it needs by itself you can wage
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a trade war if you insist on it of course there will be always people suffering in the united states but it will not be the majority germany never ever could bridge a trade war it would kill the whole economy and that's not true for the united states and that's exactly the reason why trump is not the first president to start a trade war i mean the same is true of the second and of course it backfired as clued said. in the end jobs were lost and gained but you know. what happened ragen is still very popular and that's exactly what knows that politically economy it's just nonsense but politically for the united states it's always a good idea for the president to start a trade war i know you can count on stating it will i want to come back a bit later to more on the economic effects but let's look at a second set of potential effects of all of this couldn't it something that was hotter mentioned these tariffs are being seen by many people as associate largely
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across china's bow it is a shot that could sink a few other boats in the process but some experts do think these tariffs will be followed up with additional measures that are targeted specifically at china under a u.s. law called section three zero one all about essentially intellectual property theft by china through a variety of means could a tougher u.s. trade stance both through the tariffs and through these new measures if they come to pass could that actually finally persuade china to stop some of its own protectionist policies and pride in those very protective chinese markets that not only the u.s. but also the europeans would like a lot more access to jet is. that there's a potential for that to happen that would be a good thing because this topic had to come up sooner or later anyway it's too bad that a president then don't trump has to bring about bring it up in this particular way
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but china if you look more fundamentally at is economic policy not just as trade policy it is a more cancellers to nationalist policy it is for instance not only has just the xi jinping the president removed term limits to be become essentially mao two point zero or tongue dynasty two point zero but they have unlike the west the european union or the united states a long term plan to project economic power of which the largest element is something called one. l. twenty road or the new silk road their use foreign direct investment which is the flip side of the coin of trade to project their economic power all through the eurasian landmass into africa they have bought up the port of parathas in athens they're buying up much of the german economy for instance since we happen to be here very controversially so not just finance tech companies tricity grid just now a stake a secret stake they spilt up secretly in the maker of mercedes benz
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off with the explicit aim of bringing intellectual property home at the same time when it comes to foreign direct investment they don't grant those privileges to german european american companies in china so it is about more than trade and we have to bring this up and we have to get them to the table and saying look we're paying attention and we have to talk about this so maybe this is the way to do it. would you agree with that let's head to is there perhaps are there situations where taking an orthodox measures may be the only way to influence a country that's not playing by the rules probably probably but it comes to china though i think it's anybody's guess how well that works because china is really hard to read of course and nobody really knows what their strategy is going to beat on the road if they ever open up or if they want to just buy stakes in other
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companies and they are successful here in europe they're successful with that and germany there were not a successful this week in america where they wanted to buy an american chip maker and that got veto to buy a president trump i don't know if it's a successful strategy and it's definitely a very different situation of course we look at the trade between the united states and china or whether you look at the trade between the e.u. and the united states because it's just you can't even compare those two battle grounds because it is no secret that china is not playing by any rules they do not allow foreign investment in their country but they take foreign investments elsewhere of course there is a great great imbalance and in donald trump's terms of great deal of an unfairness there if you want to call it that. now the fact is as we just mentioned and i want to come now in fact to the implications for europe the fact is that even if these new tariffs are shot across china is about it's
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a very wide cast shot that could wind up hurting others as well and in fact the initial reaction after the announcement of these tariffs was very swift very strong and global including measures or or the threat of measures by speakers from the european union's let's take a listen. i know we will also impose import tariffs. we can also do stupid we have to do stupid that. there are no winners in a trade war. made him it can only bring disaster to china to us and the whole world . china does not want to trade war. pick women imports of studio or aluminum from japan do not pose a threat to u.s. national security. they have contributed greatly to industry and employment in the united states. so i wonder is could it's kind
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of interesting to see the products that mr younker is citing i mean steel ok heavy duty important part of economic growth bourbon and harley's mention i'm opening statement it's the sandbox right where kids in a sandbox box is preschool level no there's no there's no surprise about these products your opinion has picked i think peanut butter harley davidson. bourbon and orange juice specific things that are there not only very american but that hurt. workers or industries in industries that have republicans who. might be separated from trump in a hurry this way so there's been a being bourbon being kentucky and kentucky being the state ruled by the majority speaker in the senate the senate and so it would be interesting who's doing the congressman right there where that where it is i think if so they're trying to pinpoint it and they're trying to at least use a scale scalpel rather than
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a shotgun for the time being you said though in your opening statement that you shouldn't rise to the e.u. provocation so do you think these measures even would go too far if he resorted to them i mean surely they should take all this lying down should they you. look at the brussels politics this is the e.u. negotiating on behalf of still the twenty eight. germany you will have noticed is actually urging caution and it is people like mr young who are more aggressive. at a moment like this you have to decide who is really going after is a china is it in rhetorical trump seems to be going after the. german carmakers he's done that to you two years ago he's doing it again now but if you rise to the cajun there is a genuine risk that we stumble into a trade war of the sort that have as it happened in the one nine hundred thirty s. if we decide to be the grown ups in this then maybe we can at some point still turn
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this we we have to give trump some sort of victory that he can go to his deal had hat wearing supporters in pennsylvania and celebrate but maybe we can turn then to more fundamental negotiations possibly even revive at some point the unfortunately in and it was germany that was part partly to blame the negotiations for free trade atlantica free trade area and perhaps even the pacific one that he stupidly trump has stupidly pulled out of it was a trade area that excluded china and included america now it is one that excludes america which is the exact opposite but the grown up thing to do is to show him the tool kit which we're doing bourbon and not use it yet because we still have a chance to interact to talk about his have and it looks like the e.u. and germany may be heading in that direction because after those initial statements they actually have taken a more cautious stance and they appear to be hoping that washington will carve out
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exceptions for european countries similar to what apparently washington is now talking about doing for canada and mexico is that the right approach could this all wind up having a happy ending after all at least for europe at least that is a very angry with with the very intelligent approach. to try to minimize the risks and the danger is if that will work with i don't know because he kicked out all the. he's being advised by all who is. fixed on this pact that the united states import much. and they export and mr navarro is the author of a book called death by china yeah exactly a so i'm five say he will add another book called death by europe it's not too possible so it's hard to say who is influencing trump and what will be the outcome but i think we completely with mr putin it is a good idea to stop just on the subject of navarro he made an outrageous statement
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that germany manipulates the euro. in order to gain so he is he's on the loony fringe and there's another guy advising trump now as of today larry kudlow who is taking over for gary cohen as his economic advisor and he's also of course a hardliner and he interesting enough he has switched his stance on trade and terrorists just over the last couple of days to face donald trump's views he is technically whole free trade guy and has always been very outspoken against tariffs and now he has just come around yesterday or the day before to apparently understand that president trump is of course right all along so much for advising the president so basically this is one of the biggest threats we have in this administration that there are in fact no advisers really there's donald trump with his opinion and he is now surrounded not by moderates who could warn against
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something away encourage other behavior but who are just basically falling in line and not everything off and the big question is whether under those circumstances the trump administration is likely to look with any favor on german pleas for exceptions donald trump has been railing against german carmakers add not only recently. european union they kill us open up the barriers and get rid of your towers and if you don't do that we're going to tax receipt he spends we're going to tax the w. . early could have given all that we have talked about where do you see this going could we in fact hardline stance from the trump administration promote promoting or are provoking essentially a slippery slope into a truly all out trade war what is really very dangerous is that mr trump has been
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focused on the dishpans and b.m.w. for the last thirty years that all over the quotes of him from the early ninety's where he says well that's really strange we have so many messages spends here in new york and i would tax him text them so i guess but they'll be higher taxes on german cuts. hundreds klute after george bush imposed steel tariffs that by the way did very real damage to automakers and and eventually led steel produces in other countries to file a formal. complaint that the w t o did that appalled bush backed down do you think twenty eighteen will look more like that like two thousand and two or like the one nine hundred thirty s. which you cited as the beginning all out trade and i don't have the answer we must just hope and work to prevent the nine hundred thirty s.
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and for lots of reasons and and make sure that by the way i just wanted to add it is obsession with the german carmakers it is true it's a head issue for him but even there we must know that it's been around it's true that b.m.w. and is one of the largest american car makers in other words their american operations make cars and it is also true that the e.u. has tariffs on cars from america ten percent whereas the us has tariffs on cars from the e.u. of two point five percent so there is something that was brewing he just once again shows the worst possible way to put it on the table let's hope they're coming back to our title trade war trump against the world you pointed out at the outset trump does not take a systemic view of things essentially it's what we call a zero sum game for him my loss is your win and vice versa long term with we said short term the us maybe could bear the cost long term will the us
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win with such a strategy of us against them i certainly don't think so i don't think anybody ever wins in a trade war over the short term yes over the long term no and. just made an example with the cars and that i think goes back to my point of him not understanding the complexity. off the markets here of course it's correct that american cars have a higher tariff in europe than the other way around but it's exactly the opposite on many many other goods and all in all it basically equals out it's not such an unfair system to be to begin with so you can't really make it a lot better but you could obviously make it a lot worse thank you very much thanks to all of you for being with us today and thanks to our viewers for tuning in see you serious.
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to measure a small country one of. the be the center of chinatown. the trip by canceling the seventeen zones and kilometers to six with risk taking landscapes place from the total experience of. coaching. seven to muslim cultures through cut off just enough fog d.w. . busy devotees come to knock somebody but the right to our correspondent me is
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essential is that while i'm joined by the shellac of thirty eight of his political correspondents on those stories in just a minute but close this news just going to talk about the perspective closer d.w. news. what does russia's youth hope for colors freedom of expression fear of the status. quo to the reporter to do in the shadow travels through russia before the election. the needs of the poor and the rich those who support the president those who oppose him and investigative journalists. showboats from our series this week on d.w. news. the race for immortality has begun on leading neuroscientists are researching ways to replicate the human brain
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plug androids are taking over physical labor. the code of the human brain is deciphered. to determine which play the full moon droids for the artificial consciousness or the number one item on the market time. your generation needs for you to enjoy taking the time to do the cooking. food. the transfer of the shoe mind into an avatar the successful immortality used to reach. what products can remember you can influence when the events we need to plan and make sure you haven't wanted. to. bring the factory starting march twenty fourth on t w.
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plane. this is d w news coming to you live from berlin russia brittanie its foreign minister sergey lavrov says moscow is expelling british diplomats until for top response to london's decision to kick twenty three russian embassy staff out of the country this comes as western allies rally around britain in responding to a poison attack on a former russian double h. .


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