tv Quadriga - Brexit Battle for Britain Deutsche Welle November 23, 2018 5:30am-6:01am CET
culture between here and their somewhat challenging core in. show business i think it was worth it for me to come to germany. my got my license to work as a swimming instructor sure now our two children one who don't subscribe to the station. what's your story take part. in for migrants don't. mean. hello and welcome to quadriga it is a fateful week for britain with just twenty weeks to go until the breaks that deadline and especially e.u. summit looming this weekend the u.k. and the e.u. finally announced last week that they've reached a draft agreement but prime minister theresa may is facing
a storm of protest at home most especially within her own party in the hours after the deal was announced several of her own ministers resigned m.p.'s threatened to bring down the government parliamentary debate verged on the striper us may defends the deal with equal passion especially you summit to this coming sunday is supposed to seal the deal but it's unclear that may come close on it at home. that battle for britain that's our topic and guests it is a pleasure to welcome alex forrest fighting she's a d.-w. recorder and a former westminster political correspondent she says too many british politicians have seen breck's it as a battle against a european empire in which the plucky brits would try out the reality is very different and it's now hard to see if there will be any winners at all and it's a pleasure to welcome alan posner back to the show he is a german british author. writes for the german newspaper de beds and he says it is
a lose lose the deal is bad but no deal would be worse. and finally great to have john worth on the show he is a british blogger a principal adviser and member of the green party he says no one likes may's deal in britain leaving the e.u. with no deal is not an option either neither for the u.k. nor for the e.u. so better a second referendum and perhaps it. so let me start out by asking you alex you say there are no winners john says better no breaks it at all would you say those sentiments are widely shared by people at home in the u.k. . no i don't think that they are i think that there are certainly more people who are coming round to the ideas that bracks it has clearly not been as straightforward as it was supposed to be and as it was promised to pay and that
there are a lot of possibilities that it could all go very very wrong for the u.k. but to say that this is that the whole of the u.k. is coming round to this idea is not true it's still very very divided both politically also across the country i can say for myself from my own point of view even within families it's still very divided there are people who are who would like to stay within the e.u. and are very anti breck's it and there are people who are absolutely gung ho that the u.k. is going to brics it own poster you say the deal is lose lose that opinion is shared by many people who look at the economic implications of brics it but the fact is that the single biggest issue for many people who voted to leave was immigration and doesn't this current withdrawal arrangement that is on the table actually deliver at least in part on that. yes i mean if britain remains
in a customs union with the e.u. which the deal. which is part of the deal but is out of the common market out of the weeks which entails the free movement of people then obviously you're going to have less poles for instance going back and forth between britain and poland and less other europeans coming in and that was a big big big theme but. that's why i say this. you can argue i mean. if it's such a big problem to have a polish plumber or a polish bomb made then then you're going to be happy about this deal i really don't think that on reflection the english people who use the english not the british as a whole who vote who are in favor of bricks it. that's not really is that the big problem is it's not as if polish plumbers are taking jobs away from british promise a polish bomb made to taking the jobs away from and in fact when there was a crisis a while back the poles went back home that showed what good it is to have an.
internal market that's actually breathing as the e.u. does that but look yes this deal delivers on that so may ought to be able to sell it but she but she won't but that's leave that to later. react to that if you like but i'd also like to ask you about your opening statements raising the possibility of a second referendum and to the u.k. in that case maybe staying in the e.u. after all you're not alone in this we're hearing a lot of calls for a second referendum we're hearing more and more people even theresa may saying look at this deal breaks down well maybe there will be no breaks it at all new words coming from her but as i understand it you are simultaneously applying for german citizenship so do you really believe in that possibility. i can't count on that i have to separate my own personal situation from what i think about the political analysis i'm applying to become german because my own personal future is here i'm quite at home in berlin and therefore i'm i'm i'm i come to terms of which was
becoming german in terms of the politics of it i think the second referendum is the least bad outcome i don't positively welcome such a thing because such a referendum very divisive and very very difficult and the time is short but look at the alternatives all of the alternatives of us leaving without a deal is disastrous for the british economy to resume a steel pieces no one the labor policy will in any case vote against whatever is put forward by the conservatives and even even treason may. own party doesn't like what she's negotiated so out of that situation i see no way forward other than to essentially say westminster is blog's let's put this issue back to the people in a second referendum this time britain might actually know what leave means because previous the previous time we didn't know what leave wouldn't now we know we know roughly what to resume a deal looks like you put that back to the people i fear how such campaign would go it would be very emotional very negative and so that's why i say it's the least worst option but it's
a possible option wouldn't absolutely everything depend on the phrasing of that referendum and how leave you say everybody would know what leave means even after over two years of negotiations it is hard to discern what lead means frankly well the question is would it be the to resume a proposal of how to leave which you can at least work out roughly how that would work but ultimately there are other people who are making of the evolved humans so there is even been the question should you have a three option referendum in the nightmare that would cause where you have the trees may deal no deal a crushing out without an arrangement brussels and remain but how would you organise such a thing and would that be actually possible to organize a referendum in that way but these are the questions which people are posing themselves in britain and we are going to come back to the second referendum idea perhaps a bit later but let me ask all of you for a straight up and down a yes or no answer on this point given what the majority voted for in its original referendum nearly two and a half years ago isn't this deal that's on the table right now almost as good as
it's going to get i think it is as good as it's going to get i cannot really see what else to reason they could have got because because of island you know the right and we'll come back to that in a moment of the same opinion. i'm a slightly different opinion because there was a law in the labor party is used that no one in the referendum voted to make themselves poor and this vote on the this deal will make britain economically poorer because it takes britain out of the single ball that's my immigration point is that really the thing that people were so centrally concerned about alex one sentence on arland if you would because i want to look at to resume is dilemma in more detail but just one sentence on where that problem with our land lies bearing in mind that many of our viewers are not as acquainted with all the details of this as some of us may be so the united kingdom which is great britain and northern ireland that something that people often make a mistake over northern ireland is joined to the republic of ireland and the
republic of ireland is obviously in the e.u. and will stay in the e.u. northern ireland believe the e.u. along with the rest of britain and that is the problem because if this so-called hard border between the north and the republic of ireland a big deal also because of the the former troubles that they've had within that country and they do not want in any way to threaten the peace process that was agreed twenty years ago so it's very very sensitive right and to resume a has the do you p.c. a northern irish party breathing down essentially her neck so we're going to look at that in a little more detail let's take a look now at what prime minister may is facing in the way of opposition within her own ranks. threats it wrecks it wrecks it means bricks it and we're going to make a success of it i'm very clear breaks it does mean that when theresa may became prime minister in twenty six b. she quickly adopted the credo were divorcing the u.k. from the e.u.
formally opposed she said she wanted to create the best deal possible for great britain to better negotiate with the e.u. and to keep the hardliners in check she saw stronger backing with a snap general election she had miscalculated and lost the conservative majority calls for her resignation rose. rex it frets but cerise i'm a pushed on miscalculated again when she underestimated just how hard the e.u. would negotiate her concessions to brussels caused outrage there was talk of a vote of no confidence she lost a number of key ministers including the bricks at state secretary dominic robb yet still be dissuaded this is a deal which does deliver that which is in the national interest and i'm i going to see this through yes thank you to resell me an iron lady or a tragic figure. john interestingly enough may receive some grudging
tributes this week even from her critics how do you see her as a historical figure what will the history books write i think she will be presented as a prime minister trying to do the best in a very very difficult situation leading a divided party where she has been trying to balance what the party needs on one hand of what she thinks the country could manage to live with on the other hand it's not a job pervert's anyone. you wish on anyone it's very very tough ultimately i think she will probably because i still think bracks will fail i think she will probably go down as the prime minister who brought threats it's a failure. but ultimately is there anything else she could do than the way that she's behaving at the moment she's actually playing quite a tactically good game in the conservative party she's balancing the pragmatist on one hand and the brakes radicals on the other and she's toeing a middle line between those groups and so i think she's actually making
a reasonably good effort out of a very very difficult situation now in staying with series in may what would you say is the biggest mistake she's made. the biggest mistake she made was quitting from being. a remain convinced from a not to suddenly saying breaks it means brooks it i mean who believes whatever she does she's got this stain on her character as has the whole almost the whole british political class they never believed in i mean the responsible people never believed in briggs and now this suddenly going on and by the way if you had your new referendum what would what would be all these politicians they've flip flopped one way or the other i mean the whole political class that includes mrs made. the decision not convincing because if you flip flop no one knows what you mean so if you says brakes it means brakes what does she mean by brakes it means brakes and i think she's just she's a political i'm going to use the word. i think is interesting with theresa may
because she. became prime minister she was home secretary and she was always i was essential as the interior of the interior and i was in westminster as political correspondent as so i had dealings with all these departments and her department was very interesting because she's she's a very shy quiet politician and she was she had these two attack dogs who looked off to her and prevented people from really getting to her too much that it was a very difficult department to penetrate at the time she was there she dick campaign to remain in the e.u. but she was a very reluctant campaigner she did not particularly want to side with the likes of david cameron really came out in favor of remained towards the very end when she realized what the what could happen over security if we if the u.k. obviously doesn't have the same access so i think it's you have to be careful when
you say that she's going from remain to bricks and i think she was always a reluctant remain a bit she's completely she's clearly not a brick sitting here and is trying to make the best of a very very bad see. and i would love to spend the entire rest of this program talking about whether it's nish cameron that goes down in the history books as the true villain of this piece but yes i think in in looking at what teresa mayes biggest mistakes might have been i would certainly put this strange alliance with the d u p the party that i mentioned earlier high up on the list because in many ways it has brought that irish dilemma to the fore and in some ways created a situation a double bind situation that is almost impossible to solve can you just say a word or two about that john and whether whether you see it that way do you see that as highly problematic or relationship with the do you pete but it might ultimately mean that the irish issue actually could get solved and breaks it in a certain way the irish question is much more important now than it would have been
had to do u.p.a. not being in alliance with because of the concern about a hard border that would run through the heart of ireland and thereby once again divide ireland possibly even leading to violate rights but the question is is alternately way do you draw that hard border u. joint between northern ireland in the republic of ireland or do you draw it in the ivory see do not draw border talking those are essentially your options and as a result of the do you piece saying under no circumstances should north up more than another be treated differently than the rest of the u.k. it is unacceptable that that border should essentially be in the irish sea as a result of that and that this push to resume a towards a slightly more pragmatic breaks a position by keeping the whole of the u.k. temporarily at least in the customs union so ultimately to resume a's bret's it is a little bit more pragmatic ultimately as a result of the role that the d. u.p.a. has played now you wouldn't actually think that from that the hardline vocabulary being used by the day you paid but ultimately the do you p.c.
has pushed britain towards a slightly more pragmatic brakes solution than would otherwise have been the case but that is part of what the dregs the tears the hard line exit. supporters most hate about this deal they are worried that this temporary thaw on ireland namely by keeping britain in the customs union temporarily could become a long term solution where the u.k. has the worst of all possible worlds namely it's still part of the e.u. but it doesn't even have a voice exactly and they're right of course. i mean that what's going to happen if cooler heads prevail if may gets a deal through which is by no means why if she got a deal through it's the only possible situation because this is it's it is as you say using these quotation marks a temporary solution for britain to stay in the customs union but for britain to exit is not longer within westminster's power is going to be decided by european
judges as well as the british. the british side is going to be a if the if the if the e.u. says no you can't leave the customs union then they crash out then you have the same situation they're trying to avoid now further down the line so i think the. if the if money gets a deal through that means britain stays in the customs union indefinitely and i think the fact that the brics it is so angry and concerned about northern ireland and this irish border. particular staying in the customs union is because come so the customs union this whole idea wouldn't actually kick in until after that transition period which is where we're sort of in a bit of a fudge until december twenty twenty it could of course be extended is has possibly been offered by kicking the can down the can down the road and i think the point is that the brics it is also why read now that actually they're not going to be able to agree this free trade agreement with the e.u.
off to that finish that that's why they're worried that this backstop that is customs union idea is going to happen and they won't be able to ever get out of it so they will effectively stay in the e.u. alex you say you as a west mr political correspondent knew a lot of these figures we often perceive these hard core bricks to tears whether it's boris johnson or the others that whom we saw in the piece as essentially acting on some sort of personal opportunistic basis is that right or is it too simple i'd say that some of them genuinely believe that everything about the e.u. is wrong and they are ideologically opposed to it and i can name various ministers who i have spoken to over the years who really really dislike the e.u. and think that the u.k. needs itself and the need to get out there are others and i would say boris johnson is a good example of an opportunist because actually you may remember a couple of years ago he wrote an article for one of the english newspapers the
daily telegraph in which he said actually i'm going to back brics it but it also written the other side which also got out and said he wasn't even clear and he has taken the chosen the path to be a brick city and to lead from the front but at. they are not convincing just look at what happened to his brother who was in the government until two weeks ago gerry johnson he quits his government role saying that he not only opposes breck's it but he wants that to be a second referendum so even within boris johnson's own family it is very divided before we take a look at where it all goes from here let's take a look at the e.u. side in all of this alex just reminded us that the brics a two years say everything about the e.u. is wrong from the start the european union has made it clear that certain core e.u. principles like the link between free movement of goods and free movement of labor were non negotiable nonetheless e.u. leaders say that the deal that's now on the table does reflect concessions on both
sides let's take a look. i need to spend in a new lease better than no deal but i think that is the order of the day when we have to advertise that we live on the table now is the best of the possible deal usually the best i think there's no better russianness but it's a crazy practice that diverts the accomplice off the bricks that compromise currently on the table is truly custer called a compromise both sides have made concessions and i hope that everyone deals with it responsibly now which will endure we are in fact at the decisive moment in this process no one no one should lose sight of the process the progress that we have been achieved dressers and you know the longer the u.s. prepared for a final deal with the united kingdom in november. we also prepared for a load of senators. but of course we are best prepared for an overview senator.
allen a number of european union leaders made it clear from the start that they thought we need to make an example of britain in order to prevent other countries from going down the same path from trying to leave the e.u. in the e.u. . if that tough negotiating stance that has been taken warts theresa's man made efforts to get by and won't europeans also pay a price. what will we will pay of prizes europeans anyway whatever happens because breaks it is just a lose lose situation i think the european union has has negotiated very heavily. to get britain within the customs union but out of the of the common law common markets no free movement of people that's what people worried about in britain you said it in your opening question to me so european give union is given may some things you can negotiate on it's not they have thought that she's not going be able
to get it through parliament or. john i asked earlier about may's biggest mistake what about the e.u.'s what about brussels biggest mistake i think that the european union side has maybe been a bit slow to communicate its interests in this negotiation. to try to explain to the british population why they're behaving in that way and i think also the e.u. sides if it did ultimately want true trying to find a way of keeping britain close to the european union in some way the sometimes its tone has been a little bit rude children a little bit harsh but maybe the european union has to do that because it's respecting its own interests looking backwards now i think the european union i agree with alan has negotiated this extremely well has stood united is well prepared at michoud body has been an extremely professional so much of european union side overall i must say has performed above my expectations in this
negotiation so full alex has said she's staying away from the summit on sunday if there's any sign that other countries are looking for last minute tweaking on this deal and by that she does not mean only britain what do you think are we actually going to see that summit take place in an orderly fashion yes i think it will take place because i think that the are going to persuade spain and france and the other countries who are concerned about what's going to happen in the future where they're talking about right talking about fishing rights because at the moment that's not included in this dale and they were they're not going to have access to british waters spain seventy bring up gibraltar which by the way was always an issue which breaks it is a a no i wasn't mentioned before when northern ireland was so i think that there are very big real issues but i still think it's going to go ahead on sunday and they will reach agreement because the twenty seven have been united. we heard youngest saying in that report just now that the e.u. is prepared for a disorderly no exit no deal breaks it do you think it really is. no i think
that's posturing just like by the way the hard line was was was posturing it's for certain sections of the european public which which we should want to be and the source of the britain of course he's saying ok you do it we'll see what happens i don't think europe is prepared but it should it should prepare my suggestion would be to say ok go we'll keep we'll still behave as if the customs union was in place you can still export to us and you can come back to this deal if you want to. it's up to you to push the you know push the responsibility firmly towards the brits but the question is when does the pain kick in and where does the pain taking and see if there are curious of trucks lining up in dover. or this there is a pharmaceutical that type of thing or or no legal arrangement to allow the planes to fly for example or is if with britain is outside of the european aviation safety
area those kind of things that pressure will come to bear much more quickly on the u.k. side than will come to bear on the european union side will be running out of drugs in berlin speaking of pain last question to all of you with a request for a very short answer our title asked is this the battle for britain how will britain be different five years from now how will you u.k. relations be different five years from now alex oh my goodness it's so depends where the bracks it happens if it does happen the u.k. is going to be desperately trying to get a free trade agreement with the e.u. and get access to everything it has at the moment and it's going to be extremely difficult it breaks it doesn't happen. i know what has to happen it has to happen is that the west has to stick together and you know whatever it takes and the west means present european union president of the states it doesn't look like that at the moment that's what we have to concentrate minds of. britain five years from now it's still going to be a politically very divided and complicated place looking to a certain set even words. i do think however that britain put in use multiple. it's
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