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tv   The Day  Deutsche Welle  April 23, 2022 12:02am-12:31am CEST

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tell me more than 5000000 ukrainians have fled the country, some who remained have been killed by russian soldiers, mass graves suggest war crimes, so much death and so much destruction the world bank sank since the invasion began . the damage to physical infrastructure across ukraine have hit $60000000000.00, and leaders are now openly talking about the war lasting into 2023. it's bad in ukraine. it looks set to get much worse. i'm burned off in berlin. this is the day . ah, the fair yield that ukraine full 1st of the world is simple. you give us everything that we need to fight. and we can go to church, contain put in ukraine and get him there over these 8 weeks, international humanitarian thought. not really that the art but seemingly tough
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that we maintain hope, hope for akes with live, that the having tried to time and again to reach a common security policy in europe with russia. as our partner today about more will we must protect ourselves from russia. was also coming up, voters in france will decide on sunday to stay the course or to veer far to the right. a presidential election that could fundamentally change the future of france, europe, and even nato. and it could be decided by the voters who are impressed the least that we haven't had a choice in the 2nd rounds ages. i'll get the least worst choice. i went to voting for the right or the extreme right. ah. but to our viewers watching on p b. s in the united states into all of you around the world. welcome. we begin the day with a possibly longer and broader war in ukraine this week. so the russian invasion
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enter a new chapter, both keys and moscow, saying that the focus is now on ukraine's industrial heartland in the east of the country, known as the don't bass. the lion's share of russian air strikes have hit thousands of targets there. but today, a russian commander suggested that russian, president putin, has ambitions that extend much further. and that russian forces may try to seize control of a large swath of ukrainian territory, stretching from the eastern border with russia, running along ukraine's entire southern border. as you see there on this map, but going beyond the area highlighted here all the way to ukraine's southwest neighbor while dover and this conflict may be far from over to date. british prime minister boris johnson, told reporters that intelligence analysis is now saying that the war could last until late. 2023. the sad thing is that that is a realistic possibility. yeah, of course. a putin has a, a huge army,
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and he has a very difficult political position because he's made a catastrophic blunder. and he has the, the only option he now has really is to continue to try to use his of his appalling grinding approach driven lead by, by artillery trying to grind the ukrainians down. my 1st guess tonight is steven. there time he is a senior fellow in the american stake rep program at the carnegie endowment for international peace. he's also the author of the book to morrow, the world, the growth of u. s. global supremacy stevens going to have you back on the program. we just heard boards, johnson, they are confirming that there are western intelligence estimates that the ukraine war could last into next year into late next year. is that a reality that we need to prepare for? i think certainly. so i think it's very possible that the war and ukraine will go on for quite some time. frankly, i don't think there's any particular magic to landing on
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a late next year as the end date. i think the point is that we could imagine the war ending in a matter of months, but one could also readily imagine the war going on. not just for one year, but potentially for several years. particularly if russian forces are not able to achieve enough conquest in eastern ukraine to be able to call what they've done. some kind of victory you as president by yesterday he announced $800000000.00 in military aid to ukraine. the 2nd such trench in a week, the president seems to be convinced now that ukraine with western weapons, that ukraine can defeat the russians. do you agree with well bite in his statement, announcing this new shipment of economic aid and military aid said that the goal was to prevent vladimir putin from completing his aims of
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conquering ukraine. so i'm not sure that the administration is seeking to define victory in terms of denying every goal to, to russia. but i do think that we've seen the entire u. s. political system develop a consensus around the basic approach that the administration has taken, which is to provide all aid to ukraine, short of measures that would run a significant risk of getting the united states and nato directly into a war with russia. and i think that that could be sustained for, for quite some time. and the president indicated as much steven, are we ever going to get to a point where the west has invested itself so much in ukraine that it simply cannot afford to stand by and to permit a russian victory?
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well, i think it's pretty clear that so long as ukraine is willing and able to defend itself, the west will support it. but at the same time, there is not an appetite to do something like deny russia a victory through outright direct conflict between nato forces and russian forces. and i think it's pretty clear that russia has already failed to achieve its primary goal. it's initial goal from february 24th, which was to effectuate regime change to, to bring down the zaleski government and replaced it, presumably with some kind of russian puppet government in that sense. russia has already failed to achieve its goals. and i think in a, in a basic sense, the goal now is to minimize russian conquests in eastern ukraine
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and southern ukraine. put ukraine in short in its best possible position from which a peace settlement might be made. and that seems like an absolutely viable objective if, even if it's hard to define exactly what kind of end state, what would be produced. and if it is viable, how worried should we be then? about russia using a technical nuclear weapon in this you know, i'm more worried about the kinds of things we've already seen from russia, the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in ukraine. and that said, it is certainly possible that russia might use a tactical nuclear weapon. we've seen putin resort to some nuclear stable, stable are rattling, and this is an area where if he thinks that he is losing the war, if he cannot even make gains in eastern ukraine, that are sufficient to, to call
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a victory to his own public. that would even be viewed as plausible, even from kremlin controlled media. and then he gets into a kind of desperate situation that may a cause put in to change his calculus about nuclear weapons use and use a tactical nuclear weapon that would mainly be sending a message rather than causing a wide spread destruction in ukraine. possibly as a way to try to get the west to back off. we've also seen warnings recently from the russian ministry of foreign affairs that say that western military shipments into ukraine are considered to be in the gym at military targets. and so that's always, i think, a very imaginable source of, of escalation. but so far it appears that the pentagon is insisting that ukrainians
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across the border with western ukraine into poland in order to pick up a supplies and then transport them back into the country. there is almost, there has been almost a sense of jubilation on both sides of the atlantic that this war has renewed unity within the western alliance. is it, i wonder when this war is over? will our common security and our prosperity will that be stronger? mean or will we be poor for all of this? i think everyone will be poorer. i think russian certainly will be poor ukrainians . absolutely. but that doesn't mean that the west will be better off. perhaps there might be more political unity on that's a possibility. but certainly for the united states, it looks now likely that the united states, instead of achieving a more stable relationship with russia that enables it to focus. it's military
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efforts on balancing a rising china in the indo pacific. it will now undertake a much costlier and riskier effort to beyond the front lines against a more unpredictable russia that is certainly not a victory. now we'll see maybe, you know, the one thing that might come out of this is a reduction in the reliance of europe in the united states on oil and gas. or perhaps a green transition will be something of a product of the war and ukraine. that's the only kind of silver lining. i can, i can see. let me just get your final thought here before we run out of time durban, political parties, politicians, they've really been taking a beating for their years of having a policy of dialogue with moscow and, and for encouraging change through trade was their policy the entire time. i'm talking about the last 20 years or so. i was always misguided it obviously didn't
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work out, but i think there was a logic to it and i think it's easy in the heat of the moment to to cast blame on everything that didn't work. in addition, you know, there are other ways to look at what happened if you want to talk about western policy and what western policy contributed to our current state of affairs. there are other ways to do that. we could also look at the enlargement of nato and rhetorical promises, starting in 2008 to, to suggest that ukraine as well as georgia would, would become members. but, you know, i think what's significant now is that there is in awakening in germany and in europe more broadly, to the genuine threat that russia poses in the east. but we shouldn't go too far in the other direction and inflate the russian threat either. this is not the cold war,
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this is not the red army. that's a good thing, because it is not as though soviet forces who have had their hands full in ukraine are capable of overrunning central europe. and so i think what we're seeing is healthy balancing behavior by europe, that would actually allow europe to take responsibility for itself and not be dependent on the united states to be on the front lines of any potential future conflict with russia. stevie as always, we appreciate your time and your valuable insights. thank you. thank you. a change in artillery are not the only weapons ukrainians using to find the russian invasion. there's also a war being fought over the air way. ukrainian computer specialists and radio operators have managed to jam russian communications or intercept them and in the process, they've been able to reveal some shocking details about the war's brutality. this
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man known as viking is one of ukraine's most experienced amateur radio operators. he's also a member of radio resistance, a group that interferes with the russian military's radio transmissions. they're fighting in the war of radio waves of it's either one animal damage or radios actually forbidden in war time. but our intelligence services quickly realized that radio resistance can help in this war liking shows us how members of the groups searched through long and short waves for the conversation channels that russian soldiers used to communicate, decoding, intercepting, and jamming them is the goal. yeah, i he is an example driver of the russian and personnel carrier since he's coordinates, according to ukraine security services. this conversation took place between a russian soldier and his wife. he asks her permission to rape ukrainian with
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another. do you allow me to? yeah, this is shawn. yes, i allow it. she says, the curriculum protection on the bullet hinkle that we haven't even identified the 2 of them, both little boards of we know the names of the social media profiles and for march the us to so we know everything about that and you can move it because even the date they moved to crimea from russia, let's say which timothy shameka ukrainians like viking of fighting tooth and nail to defend their country. his comrade, known by his code named railey, has risen to cote status to them. he takes radio jamming a step further, speaking directly to russian soldiers, often insulting them. ah, this is on fire. land side learned a science radios, this russian soldier rich jams, the coal stopping reinforcements from coming, and then sends this international i here. now you see ukrainian intelligence work
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is serious business. you should love and respect her enemy. over. at the end of the battle, the members of radia resistance interfere with the signal so that the ukrainian coat of arms appears on the screen. this is what the war of radio waves looks like . well, as we have reported this week, efforts by western nations to get weapons to ukraine, those efforts are intensifying on thursday. you, as president biden announced to the span of just one week, the 2nd 800000000 dollar military aid package. germany is partnering with neither ally will be needed to send it soviet made. thanks to you. great. and the british prime minister today said that his country is doing the same with poland. i think that's what i haven't said in public before is that we're, we're, we're also looking more at what we can do to back fill in countries such as poland and who may want to send
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a heavier weaponry to defend the help defend the the ukrainians. so we're looking at attending tanks to the poland, to, to, to help them as they, as they said, some of the t 70 two's at to, to you, craig. my next guest played a role in helping to build military ties between the u. s. a. ukraine as part of us european command. i'm happy to welcome to the program tonight. mark montgomery mark is a former u. s. navy carrier strike group commander. he's now with the foundation for the defense of democracies. mark, it's good to have you on the program. you know, we been seen from the us, the announcement of military aid, one coming right after the next, another $800000000.00 just this week. mean weapons to help ukrainian troops hold back. the russians are the right weapons arriving at the right time. of our thank you very much for having me and that's a great 1st question. the almost $3400000000.00 now or since the beginning of the
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conflict and, and i do believe the right weapons have been coming up in terms of the right time. obviously the preference would have been for these weapons to have come, you know, back when we had initial inklings of aggression from pollutant in november and december and potentially that could to turn that like this. but given the realities where we're at, i think this 3400000000 in total has been on the right equipment coming at the right times to, to help the ukrainians of send off the russian aggression. the u. s. is giving ukraine weapons which can help defeat an army in the field at the start of the invasion. they were supplying weapons suitable for insurgent operations. what has changed? so you're exactly right at the beginning. it with the threat was really the key of in the, in the force is coming in that northern and that northern front rush opened. and the provision of the javelin, and
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a lot of other anti army gear from your european countries, particular the united kingdom was absolutely critical to blunting on the russian offensive. and so that was the right stuff. now though, the one group of weapons are starting to see transition through this are the use of a remote kind of one way. drones read whether the switchblade 3 hundreds or 6 hundreds are now the phoenix goes that we're hearing about these are weapons that reagan. so both in an urban or force environment that we were in previously, that can also be used on the step, you know, when we're fighting, when you cranes fighting in the don bass region. and so i think we, they have transition property. and then finally, this almost 90 pieces of $155.00 millimeter artillery and the, the vehicles to tow it. and then a total, i think of about a $180000.00 rounds to go away that are going to be critical elements of, of fighting the russians on the eastern front, as russia works to solidify its gains it's previously held. and what they hope to
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be future held gains in the dom bass region. you as president biden. he seems convinced now that ukraine, with the help of this immense transfer of weaponry, will be able to win this war against russia. do you agree? i think we'd have to agree on and what the definition of when is, if, when is hold on a crane, you know, you know, western crane including kevin and some portion of eastern ukraine, but lose the dom, boss, region. lose a leverage to crimea than the, than ukraine. well, when i think ukraine will be in, is it a position to hold its losses down to a certification of the dom bass under russian control and russia achieving a land bridge to crimea? both of which are patently illegal and inappropriate maneuvers by russia, but which i think they have recalibrated, you know, the 2nd offensive,
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the objectives of the 2nd offensive to be. so the, i guess the, the short answers, yes, they'll win, but it's a, it's a truncated victory. we know that ukraine is not a native member, but maybe you have some insight into this. how good are the lines of communication between the pentagon and the ukrainian military? well, i've been very impressed. you know, not only i have to give a lot of credit to president biden and his leadership team around him for staying committed to these are arm transfers for rallying are european and nato allies to also contribute. you know, once you know, we failed to deter rusher, i think we've done a good job assisting ukraine in minimizing the losses and even defeating the russians yoke tactically on, on the battlefield. and i think a strip, a significant element of that is the communications between the pentagon, but particularly us european command, which is a u. s. command in stuttgart. that is kind of a shadow us command alongside nato,
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and really provides the logistics backbone to nato and is providing the logistics backbone that is being utilized today. and so that u. s. european command logistics environment is supporting the kind of coalition of the willing, the united states and a great number, many of whom you listed in your opening european allies who are flowing weapons into poland in slovakia and then are being pushed forward into these weapons subsequently being pushed forward into ukraine where the ukrainians are doing a good job. obviously, you know, distributing it further. obviously that requires a lot of communication and you have to give us your pink man in the pentagon's will credit mark. i have to ask you before we run out of time, you as an admirable, formerly at the head of a carrier task force. what is your assessment of what we saw last week, the seeking of the moskva? so 1st it was a, it was a bold move by the ukrainians. i don't think they have very many of these now these
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neptune missiles but they were rushing to get them completed last fall. they obviously got some completed and they struck the flagship of the of the black sea fleet. now we had to remind ourselves as a 40 year old ship, it had a say 300 ish type air defense system. and i clearly was unprepared for the attack that came, but i think it does a great job, you know, deterring, future russian maritime amphibious action from the black sea. that makes the defense of odessa and mic ally of the city between crimean odessa. i think much more easier for the, for the ukraine's is they don't have to plan for a large skill in phoebe us movement. sure. by the russians from a u. s. navy, admiral mark montgomery of the foundation for the defense of democracies. martin, we appreciate your time and your valuable insights. did i? thank you. thank you. oh,
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free president. emanuel may crone and his far right challenger, marine the pin or making a final push for votes before sundays. presidential run off polls show the race is much tighter than 5 years ago when french voters faced the same choice. though macro is expected to win, millions of voters remain undecided. his campaign slogan might be all of us, but it's not clear enough. a france will be with emanuel micron at the ballot box on sunday la hose, both the incumbent president. he and his far right opposition, marine the panther, had been making a final push for votes entering the t. v stations on friday morning. them but they're not speaking to their cold demographic. instead, mine for votes from supporters of far left candidate shall new maelin, sean, who went 20 percent in the 1st round on the streets of paris. neither a pen nor micron are popular with this key group of voters that we haven't had
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a choice in the 2nd rounds ages. i'll go for the least worst choice. i won't be voting for the right or the extreme right? so it's become a campaign of style over substance micron attempting to shake off a reputation of arrogance and connect with work and class motors le pen trying to betray herself as a serious states woman in a tv debate earlier this week, let me micron a title, a pen stance on russia. huh? she refused to the accusation. instead, trying to focus on the cost of living. oh, that's good for did on did you depend on russian power? you depend on mister putin as a few months after saying that madame le pen, that you took out a loan from a russian bank in 2015 for the 1st check russian bank. that self tick wish and bank objected a car wash and i agreed on all the sanctions that was taken against the oligarchs
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against the bang us lesson. the only sanction that i disagree with is the one blocking russian gap is a coil in port zuka. why? because i think that's not the right method. this is not what we'll actually hurt russia in it, and above all, it will hurt the french people a lot. is she micron is expected to keep the keys to the elisa palace. i think more though it was a tougher fight. the many expected i would love boats with millions undecided and unhappy with both candidates. there is no clear win in sundays, deciding round of macro um best as le pen. and today's almost done. but we have a good weekend, everyone will see here on monday with
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with india monkeys on the loose in the deli. and they're only growing in number. they are looking for food and are quick to by feeding them just makes things worse . there are no idea on how to deal with this infestation without harming vienna's meeting. next d w. making the headlines and what's behind van
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d. w. news africa. the show that one of the issues in the continent life is slowly getting back to normal. yeah. well, in the streets, to give you in the report on the inside our correspond that was on the ground and reporting from across the continent and all the trends doesn't matter to you in 60 minutes on a d. w. o. oh, guardians, if truth exiled turkish journalistic john don't, dora. i have paid almost every price of being a journalist in a country like turkey and mexican investigative journalist on i believe 9, this is,
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